Convergent and Divergent Social Cues Effects of Televised ...
What's new and what's special? The televised debates in the 2002 German election campaign Marcus...
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Transcript of What's new and what's special? The televised debates in the 2002 German election campaign Marcus...
What's new and what's special?
The televised debates in the 2002 German election campaign
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann,U of Mainz, Germany
What was new in the 2002 German debates?
• Number of debates: Two debates
• Timing: 4 and 2 weeks before election day
• Length: 75 and 85 minutes
• Participants: Only two candidates
• Setting: Candidates standing, strict rules
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
Why are TV debates different from other forms of campaign communications?
• Audience size: Bigger audience than all other events
• Audience structure: Also undecided voters and opposing party
• "Free" format: Possibility to argue, not only sound-bites
• Confronting the opponent: Only format of direct interaction
• They generate large amounts of pre- and post-debate coverage(that also reaches those not watching the debate)
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
What are the effects of TV debates?
• During debate: Immediate reactions
• Post-debate: - Perceived "Winner" of the debate - Opinions about the candidates
- Knowledge (e.g. about the state of the country)
- Perceived winner of the coming election
- Importance of candidates for voting decisions - Voting intentions
• Post-debate media coverage: see the above
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
Short-term effects:Immediate reactions during the debate
(CRM)
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
7
Viewers’ evaluations of the candidates during the debateMean of means of supporters of incumbent parties, opposition and undecided voters
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20:3
3:10
20:3
6:27
20:3
9:43
20:4
3:00
20:4
6:17
20:4
9:34
20:5
2:50
20:5
6:07
20:5
9:24
21:0
2:41
21:0
5:58
21:0
9:15
21:1
2:31
21:1
5:48
21:1
9:05
21:2
2:22
21:2
5:40
21:2
8:57
21:3
2:13
21:3
5:30
21:3
8:47
21:4
2:04
21:4
5:20
21:4
8:37
21:5
1:54
21:5
5:11
21:5
8:28
Schröderevaluated
better
Stoiberevaluated
better
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
8
What are the effects of …
- Specific statements about candidates’ views and political plans.
- Statements mentioning facts and figures (e.g. number of unemployed, economic situation)
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
9
Statements polarizing the political campsMean CRM-score of supporters of incumbent parties and opposition
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
20:3
3:10
20:3
5:37
20:3
8:05
20:4
0:33
20:4
3:00
20:4
5:28
20:4
7:55
20:5
0:23
20:5
2:50
20:5
5:18
20:5
7:45
21:0
0:13
21:0
2:41
21:0
5:08
21:0
7:36
21:1
0:04
21:1
2:31
21:1
4:59
21:1
7:27
21:1
9:54
21:2
2:22
21:2
4:50
21:2
7:18
21:2
9:46
21:3
2:13
21:3
4:41
21:3
7:09
21:3
9:36
21:4
2:04
21:4
4:31
21:4
6:59
21:4
9:26
21:5
1:54
21:5
4:22
21:5
6:49
Stoiberevaluated better
Schröderevaluated better
Supporters of the opposition (CDU/CSU and FDP)
Supporters of the incumbent parties (SPD and B90/Green Party)
1 2 3 45
6 7
89
10 11
12 13
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
10
What are the effects of …
- Statements arousing emotions
- Commonplaces
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
11
Example: Emotionalizing a non-emotional issueMean CRM of means of supporters of incumbent parties, opposition and undecided voters
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
21:2
4:21
21:2
4:32
21:2
4:43
21:2
4:55
21:2
5:06
21:2
5:17
21:2
5:28
21:2
5:40
21:2
5:51
21:2
6:02
21:2
6:13
21:2
6:25
21:2
6:36
21:2
6:47
21:2
6:58
21:2
7:10
21:2
7:21
21:2
7:32
21:2
7:43
21:2
7:55
21:2
8:06
21:2
8:17
21:2
8:28
21:2
8:40
21:2
8:51
21:2
9:02
21:2
9:13
21:2
9:25
21:2
9:36
21:2
9:47
Schröder speaking
"I received my degrees through evening classes"
"As my upbringing wasn’t privileged, I was lucky that I had the chance to make my secondary school exams."
Stoiber speaking
Schroederevaluated better
Stoiberevaluated better
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
Longer-term effects:Debate-induced opinion changes
pre-debate – post-debate(Panel-Analysis)
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
13
Changes of viewers' opinions about the candidates
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
More positive opinion (%)
More negative opinion (%)
Schröder Stoiber
Percentage of participants
20
3
17
19
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
14
Changes of the certainty of voting decisions
10
10
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
more certainless certain
Percentage of participants
15
Changes of the assessment of the state of the labour market
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
Long-term effects:Opinion changes
immediately after the debate – five days after the debate
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany
0
25
50
75
100
125
150 Statements
26/8
27/8
28/8
30/8
31/8 2/
93/
95/
96/
97/
99/
910
/911
/912
/913
/914
/916
/917
/918
/919
/920
/921
/9 29
/8 4/9
1. TV-debate 2. TV-debate
Lastparliamentary
debate
Number of statements
Post-debate coverage: Focusing on the candidatesNumber of evaluative statements about the candidates
four weeks prior to the election in four national newspapers (50% sample)
18
Changes of perceptions of who won the debate
Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany