What (Else) Can Agile Learn From Complexity
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What (Else) Can Agile Learn from Complexity? What (Else) Can Agile Learn from Complexity? Jurgen Appelo [email protected] version 3 image by BotheredByBees Jurgen Appelo [email protected] version 3
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How can complexity science be applied to software development? This presentation shows you which scientific concepts can be mapped to agile software development. http://www.noop.nl http://www.jurgenappelo.com
Transcript of What (Else) Can Agile Learn From Complexity
What (Else) Can Agile Learn from
Complexity?
What (Else) Can Agile Learn from
Complexity?
Jurgen Appelo
version 3
image by BotheredByBees
Jurgen Appelo
version 3
Jurgen Appelo writer, speaker,
entrepreneur...
www.jurgenappelo.com
QDD (Quote-Driven Discourse)
Misquotation is, in fact, the pride and privilege of the learned. A widely-read man never quotes accurately, for the rather obvious reason that he has read too widely. Hesketh Pearson (1934) Common Misquotations http://www.amazon.com/Common-Misquotations-Hesketh-Collected-Pearson/dp/B00128UERS/
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Let’s start! Let’s start!
Agile Software Development
An ant colony, the brain, the immune system, a Scrum team, and New York City, are self-organizing systems. Ken Schwaber Agile Software Development with Scrum http://www.amazon.com/Agile-Software-Development-Scrum/dp/0130676349/
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Agile Software Development
At the heart of complex adaptive systems theory’s relevance to software development is the concept of emergence, and the factors leading to emergent results. Jim Highsmith Adaptive Software Development http://www.amazon.com/Adaptive-Software-Development-Collaborative-Approach/dp/0932633404/
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Agile Software Development
Scrum is not a methodology, a defined process or set of procedures. It's an open development framework. The rules are constraints on behavior that cause a complex adaptive system to self-organize into an intelligent state. Jeff Sutherland Shock Therapy (presentation)
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The Evolution of Complexity Science
image by Brian Castellani
Are software projects complex systems?
Can we apply complexity science to management?
image by practicalowl
Beware!! Abuse of Science
1. To use scientific terminology without bothering much about what the words actually mean.
2. Importing scientific concepts without giving the slightest empirical or conceptual justification.
3. Displaying superficial erudition by shamelessly throwing around terms where they are irrelevant.
4. Exhibiting a veritable intoxication with words, with a superb indifference to their meaning.
Sokal, A. and Bricmont, J. (1998)
Intellectual Impostures: Postmodern Philosophers’ Abuse of Science http://www.amazon.com/Intellectual-Impostures-Alan-Sokal/dp/1861976313
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Complexity vs. Management
Not unexpectedly, the complexity gurus are most upset with how complexity science terms are loosely, if not metaphorically, defined and tossed in managerial discourse – one [guru] goes as far as to suggest that the books offer many insights for managers, but one should simply black out all references to complexity science.
Maguire, S. and McKelvey, B. (1999) “Complexity and Management: Moving from fad to firm foundations” http://iscepublishing.com/ECO/ECO_papers/Issue1_2_2.pdf
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Compromise: Loose Application
The word “culture” in business culture was (successfully) borrowed from anthropology.
The word “strategy” in business strategy was borrowed from the military. (In fact, the science of game theory borrowed the word for evolutionary stable strategies!)
Loose application (borrowing and bending) of terminology across disciplines is more than just the invention of metaphores. The terms actually have meaning.
Van Uden, J. (2005)
“Using complexity science in organization studies: a case for loose application”
http://iscepublishing.com/ECO/ECO_papers/Issue_7_1_8_PH.pdf
Snowden, D. and Stanbridge, P. (2004) “The Landscape of Management: Creating the context for understanding social complexity” http://iscepublishing.com/ECO/ECO_other/Issue_6_1-2_19_FM.pdf
humans involved, not mechanics
complex, not ordered
Snowden, D. and Stanbridge, P. (2004) “The Landscape of Management: Creating the context for understanding social complexity” http://iscepublishing.com/ECO/ECO_other/Issue_6_1-2_19_FM.pdf
Example: Self-Organization
Self-organization is a process of attraction and repulsion in which the internal organization of a system, normally an open system, increases in complexity without being guided or managed by an outside source.
Self-Organization http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-organization
Are self-organizing teams really self-organizing?
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Example: Emergence
Emergence is the arising of novel and coherent structures, patterns and properties during the process of self-organization in complex systems.
Corning, P.A. (2002)
“The Emergence of Emergence: Now What?” http://iscepublishing.com/ECO/ECO_papers/Issue4_3_3.pdf
Is emergent design really emergent?
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Software Projects
Scope
Features
Qualities People
Tools
Resources
Parts Artifacts
Product
Yes, we can apply complexity to management
Yes, software projects are complex systems
image by Peter Kaminsky
Darkness Principle
Each element in the system is ignorant of the behavior of the system as a whole [...] If each element ‘knew’ what was happening to the system as a whole, all of the complexity would have to be present in that element.
Richardson, K.A. (2002) “Systems theory and complexity: Part 1” http://iscepublishing.com/ECO/ECO_other/Issue_6_3_10_FM.pdf
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Traditional Monitoring and Control fails
(no project manager can know everything)
image by Okko Pyykkö
The Law of Requisite Variety
If a system is to be stable the number of states of its control mechanism must be greater than or equal to the number of states in the system being controlled.
Variety (Cybernetics) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variety_%28cybernetics%29
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Traditional Management fails
(one manager is less complex than a group)
image by flattop341
Boundaries and Conditions
Self-organization requires that the system is surrounded by a containing boundary. This condition defines the "self" that will be developed during the self-organizing process.
Eoyang, G. and Conway D.J. (1999) “Conditions That Support Self-Organization in a Complex Adaptive System” http://amauta-international.com/iaf99/Thread1/conway.html
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image by Robbie W T Agile Management is a crucial part of Agile
(Defining boundaries and conditions)
Hierarchy Principle
Complex natural phenomena are organized in hierarchies wherein each level is made up of several integrated systems.
Skytner, L. (2001) “General Systems Theory: Ideas and Applications” NJ: World Scientific
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image by Mountain Goat Software
Example: Scrum of Scrums
managed self-organized
Hierarchies are not a problem, they are natural
Managed (imposed) hierarchies are the problem
Patches
Take a conflict-laden task in which many parts interact, and divide it into a quilt of non-overlapping patches. Try to optimize within each patch. As this occurs […] a good solution in one patch will change the problem to be solved in adjacent patches.
Kaufman, S. (1995) At Home in the Universe http://www.amazon.com/At-Home-Universe-Self-Organization-Complexity/dp/0195111303/
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image adapted from Mountain Goat Software
Example: Patches of Scrums
An ecosystem of teams instead of a hierarchy
Group Size
There is a particular number of decision-makers that stands out from the trend as being truly, spectacularly bad, tending with alarmingly high probability to lead to deadlock: eight.
Buchanan, M. (2009) “Explaining the curse of work” http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126901.300-explaining-the-curse-of-work.html
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image by Jayel Aheram
Good team size = 7 +/- 2 (except 8)
(5 might be perfect)
Specialization
In more complex organisms – from eukaryotic protists to social mammals – specialization among the parts (or division of labor) produces many advantages for various wholes.
Corning, P.A. (2002) “The Emergence of Emergence: Now What?” http://iscepublishing.com/ECO/ECO_papers/Issue4_3_3.pdf
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Specialization is not a problem, it is natural
Managed (imposed) specialization is the problem
image by Ali
Power Laws
Scale-free networks are ubiquitous in nature due to the adaptive properties of robustness and fast communication associated with power-law degree distributions.
Mitchell, M. (2009) Complexity: A Guided Tour http://www.amazon.com/Complexity-Guided-Tour-Melanie-Mitchell/dp/0195124413/
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Power laws exhibit scale invariance
You can’t estimate size of next unknown issue
size of issues
frequency of issues
high chance of small issues
low chance of large issues
Prediction of velocity includes an (impossible) estimate of the size of unknown problems
image by cod gabriel
Dependence on Context
A project cannot be viewed independent of its surrounding context […]. An understanding of the context is in itself not sufficient to prescribe a method […]. Rather, the method to manage the project is embedded in the context and one must allow the emergence of such a method through interaction between the actors and the environment.
Pundir, A.K., Ganapathy, L. And Sambandam, N. (2007) “Towards a complexity framework for managing projects” http://iscepublishing.com/ECO/ECO_papers/Issue_9_4_3_AC.pdf
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ScrumButs are natural and necessary
Management methods must emerge
Standard methods must be customized
Fitness Landscapes
The environment is not out there, separate from us. We can help to create the environment. […] The Spanish have phrase […]: “My friend, there is no road. You make the road as you walk.”
Dent, E.B. (1999) “Complexity Science: A Worldview Shift” http://iscepublishing.com/ECO/ECO_papers/Issue1_4_1.pdf
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The environment responds to released software
Success can only be known after deployment image by neona
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linear improvement
stuck on local optimum or walk through the valley
(linear) retrospectives may stop working
image by Kevin N. Murphy
mixing practices from two sources
Crossover
non-linear improvement
finding higher peaks by mixing prior high performers
Switch from linear to non-linear retrospectives
(Replace multiple practices at a time)
moderately connected system (several optimums)
sparsely connected system (one optimum)
intensively connected system (no real optimum)
If you can’t replace a practice, tool, or person,
you shouldn’t even add them in the first place
image by wilhei55
disturbances enable the system to find deeper valleys
(inverted landscape, lower = better)
Noise
image by Hamed Saber
The Butterfly Effect
Small changes, BIG consequences
Incompressibility
There is no accurate representation of the system which is simpler than the system itself. In building representations of open systems, we are forced to leave things out, and since the effects of these omissions are nonlinear, we cannot predict their magnitude.
Cilliers, P. (2005) “Knowing complex systems” Managing Organizational Complexity: Philosophy, Theory And Application http://www.amazon.com/Managing-Organizational-Complexity-Philosopy-Application/
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Because of the butterfly effect, we cannot predict
the consequences of leaving something out
Consequence: a variety of imperfect methods
image by woodleywonderworks
Models
All models are wrong, but some are useful.
Box, G. and Draper, N. (1969) Evolutionary Operation: A Statistical Method for Process Improvement http://www.amazon.com/Evolutionary-Operation-Statistical-Process-Improvement/dp/B0028H5YDG/
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The Software Cultivator
Managing Agile Organizations
(2010)
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Jurgen Appelo
My Book
Disclaimer
I might have used scientific terminology without really understanding what the words actually mean.
I might have imported scientific concepts without giving sufficient justification.
I might have thrown around scientific terms where they are irrelevant.
And I might have an intoxication with words...
image by -bast-
But I hope to have inspired you...
Q & A
@jurgenappelo
slideshare.net/jurgenappelo
noop.nl
linkedin.com/in/jurgenappelo
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/
This presentation was inspired by the works of many people, and I cannot possibly list them all. Though I did my very best to attribute all authors of texts and images, and to recognize any copyrights, if you think that anything in this presentation should be changed, added or removed, please contact me at [email protected].
