Westside Future Fund Retail Market Analysis & Recommendations Sept. 2016

1

September 2016

WESTSIDE FUTURE FUND

LAND-USE ACTION PLANRETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS &

RECOMMENDATIONS

Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis2

• Executive Summary & Trade Area Definition

• Supply and Demand Conditions

• Trade Area Assessment

• Strengths, Challenges, Opportunities

• Future Retail Potential Analysis

• Future Retail Potential Locations

• Other Recommendations

• Retail Site Selection Primer

REPORT CONTENTS


The Retail Trade Area demographics likely diminish the potential attraction of many national retailers in the short -term in most Westside neighborhoods, which provides an opportunity for local entrepreneurs and initiatives to meet future retail demand. However, opportunities are present to include national retailers in some areas.

While the local retail real estate market indicators lag those of the city overall, the local market supports over 800,000 SF of occupied space.

Significant leakage of local retail spending to other commercial areas exists – i .e., local household spending supports large amounts of retail space outside of the Trade Area. Capturing a portion of this spending leakage back into the Trade Area provides the best opportunity to support additional local retail offerings.

Local resident spending patterns are similar to those of average American households in terms of retail spending categories.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


Capturing a portion of the aforementioned leakage, as well as garnering support from new households moving into the area, and support from local college students and attendees to nearby attractions, provides the potential for up to approximately 129,500 SF of additional retail opportunity. This potential exists at strategic locations within each Trade Area neighborhood.

Government entit ies, such as Invest Atlanta, and private organizations, such as the Westside Future Fund, are prepared to provide assistance in local redevelopment init iatives. In order to actualize the potential detailed in this report, local residents and entrepreneurs must work with these groups to init iate the retail growth. Monetary and social enterprise incentives wil l often be necessary to attract attention for market opportunities.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New Retail Potential by Neighborhood

Sq. Foot Range

English Ave. 13,000 - 16,500

Vine City 68,000 - 77,000

Ashview Heights 10,000 - 12,000

AUC Neighborhood 21,000 - 24,000

TOTAL 112,000 - 129,500


RETAIL TRADE AREA BOUNDARIES

Retail Trade Area

MARTA Station Area .25-mile Radius

Future Beltline

H.E

. H

olm

es

Households in the “Retail Trade Area” will provide the majority of spending support for new retail options in the Westside neighborhoods examined in the Land Use Action Plan.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND CONDITIONS


CURRENT WESTSIDE DEMANDDRIVERS

Retai l demand in the Trade Area currently comes from four main groups, driven largely by residents, as wel l as col lege students from the AUC. Local employees and vis itors make up the remaining demand segments.

The impact of these groups could shift over t ime with the new stadium, Congress Center init iat ives, addit ional employment opportunit ies and continuing Belt l ine development.

Residents

Employees

Visitors

College

Students

WESTSIDE ATLANTA RETAIL TRADE AREA


Populat ion in the Trade Area decreased dramatical ly from 2000 to 2010, but is currently trending upwards.

Projected to recover to 79% of 2000 population by 2021.

The Trade Area accounts for 6.6% of At lanta residents compared to 9.1% in 2000.

POPULATION

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Study Area

City of Atlanta

Relative Population Growth Index , 2000 to 2021

Population Trade AreaCity of

Atlanta

2000 Census 38,203 418,156

2010 Census 29,494 420,003

2016 Estimate 29,964 454,629

2021 Projection 30,255 479,455

Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 -2.6% 0.0%

Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2016 0.3% 1.3%

Avg. Annual Growth Forecast 2016-2021 0.2% 1.1%

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.

DEMAND

Trade Area


Persons per Square Mile, By Block Group

116,000 – 618,000

22,000 – 116,000

4,000 – 22,000

1,000 – 4,000

0 – 1,000

Based on Data from ESRI

Populat ion density i s greatest in the eastern port ion of the Trade Area.

Greater population density will help drive retail demand.

Overal l , c i ty of At lanta populat ion density : 3 ,413 persons per square mi le

DEMANDPOPULATION DENSITY

Source: ESRI


The number of households in the Trade Area decreased by 26% from 2000 to 2010.

Households in the Trade Area tend to be sl ightly larger than those c itywide.

Households Trade AreaCity of Atlanta

2000 Census 13,197 169,050

2010 Census 9,822 185,484

2016 Estimate 10,089 207,248

2021 Projection 10,366 222,710

Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 -2.9% 0.9%

Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2016 0.4% 1.9%

Avg. Annual Growth Forecast 2016-2021 0.5% 1.4%

2016 Est. Avg. Household Size 2.35 2.04


Annual Household Growth

DEMANDHOUSEHOLDS

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Annual Growth 2000-2010 Annual Growth 2010-2016 Annual Growth 2016-2021

Trade Area City of Atlanta


Median income in the Trade Area is half that of the c ity of At lanta.

Retai lers look very c losely at median household income in deciding where to locate.

Household Income Trade Area City of Atlanta

2016 Est. Median Household Income $ 24,047 $ 48,878

% of City Median Income 49% 100%

Households by Income

HH with income >$15K 3,318 33% 41,108 20%

HH with income $15K - $35K 3,147 31% 41,037 20%

HH with income $35K - $50K 1,351 13% 23,216 11%

HH with income $50K - $100K 1,686 17% 49,885 24%

HH with income > $100K 588 6% 52,002 25%

Annual Household Income


DEMANDINCOME

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Less than $15K

$15K - $35K

$35K - $50K

$50K - $100K

More than $100K




Median Household, Income,

By Block Group

$105,000 – $200,000

$73,000 – $105,000

$42,000 – $73,000

$10,000 – $42,000

$0 – $10,000

Trade Area households are below most typical income thresholds targeted by a large number of nat ional retai l chains.

DEMANDINCOME

Source: ESRI



RETAIL SPENDING

DEMAND

Total Retail Spending/HH By

Census Tract

Whi le spending in the area i s s ign i f icant on a per household bas i s , i t i s be low the target leve l s sought by m any nat iona l reta i le rs .

Source: ESRI


The top three retai l store types:

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

Food & Beverage

Foodservice & Drinking Places

account for 43% of retai l spending by Trade Area residents.

This spending pattern is

TYPICAL of

most American retai l trade areas.

CURRENT TRADE AREA RETAIL SPENDING BY STORE TYPE

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers, $71,972,352

Furniture & Home Furnishings

Stores, $7,472,734

Electronics & Appliances Stores,

$10,267,602

Building Material, Garden Equipment Stores, $38,415,840

Food & Beverage Stores, $60,595,683

Health & Personal Care Stores, $24,253,663

Gasoline Stations,

$33,153,890Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores,

$22,321,428

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores,

$11,230,418

General Merchandise Stores, $52,714,646

Miscellaneous Store Retailers,

$12,988,608

Non-Store Retailers, $41,161,455

Foodservice & Drinking Places, $58,193,467


DEMAND

$372,769,436 Annual Spending


Westside Trade Area spending supports 1.5 million square feet of retail space(not including motor vehicles & parts)

2/3 of that spending takes place outside of the Westside Trade Area.

Total Annual Resident

Consumer Expenditures

Supportable

Square Feet

Current Trade Area

Occupied Retail Square

Feet

Westside Trade Area $372,769,436 1,500,000+/- 820,000

DEMAND

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group

RETAIL SPENDING & SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET

Current residents spending supports over 600,000 SF of retail space outside of the Trade Area


The difference between retai l demand and supply represents an opportunity gap.

The posit ive values by store type in the area signif ies “leakage” of retai l spending to locat ions outside of the local market area.

Nearly a l l store categories in the Trade Area show retai l demand potential to capture retai l spending “leakage” back into the Trade Area.

Opportunity Gap – Retail Stores, Westside Trade Area

-$20,000,000 -$10,000,000 $0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000

Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores

Electronics & Appliances Stores

Building Material, Garden Equip Stores

Grocery Stores

Health & Personal Care Stores

Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores

General Merchandise Stores

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Foodservice & Drinking Places

Current Over-Supply Current Under-Supply

DEMANDRETAIL OPPORTUNITY GAP ANALYSIS




DEMANDRETAIL OPPORTUNITY GAP ANALYSIS

Total Retail Opportunity Gap By

Block Group

Nearly a l l block groups west of Lowery Blvd. show opportunit ies to capture retai l leakage.

Source: ESRI


1

2

34

5

67 8

9

10

1. 17,4002. 17,3003. 3,750

4. 8,2705. 15,8006. 4,200

7. 13,0008. 5,0909. 8,130

10. 22,800

2014 GADOT Traffic Counts (ADT - Avg. Daily Trips)

DEMANDTRAFFIC COUNTS

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from GDOT

Traff ic counts show that Trade Area roads are general ly local-serving.

National retai lers typical ly seek at least 15,000 ADT and above for new store placement.

Lower traffic counts provide a challenge to attract retail in many Trade Area locations.

Northside Drive provides the heaviest auto traff ic counts in the Trade Area (22,000+ ADT).


OVERVIEW

Year Total SF Vacant SF % VacantAnnual

Absorption Avg Rent

2015 913,894 94,327 10.3% 500 $ 6.24

2014 913,894 82,677 9.0% (11,650) $ 6.24

2013 913,894 88,367 9.7% 5,690 $ 6.39

2012 913,894 132,600 14.5% 44,233 $ 6.67

2011 913,894 111,041 12.2% (21,559) $ 6.34

2010 909,894 119,800 13.2% 12,759 $ 5.75

2009 907,734 118,670 13.1% 1,030 $ 6.92

2008 907,734 110,370 12.2% (8,300) $ 7.91

2007 907,734 40,800 4.5% (69,570) $ 6.35


Total SF 913,894 61,411,089

Avg. SF/Bldg. 9,422 12,683

Vacant SF 94,327 3,750,077

% Vacant 10.3% 6.1%

2015 Absorption (SF) 500 103,405

Avg. Rent Per SF $ 6.24 $ 15.55

SUPPLY

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar

The local retai l market has been relatively stagnant over the past eight years, which, given the population decl ine in the area, is better than might be expected.

The retai l market in the Trade Area has the potential to improve in the near future given the projected level of attention and investments that are currently being made by government, corporate and philanthropic entit ies.

Trade Area Retail Market History

Trade Area & Atlanta Current Retail Market


Downtown

Atlanta

Trade Area

3-Mile Radius

from

MLK/Lowery

0

366,000

Based on Data from CoStar

SUPPLY

While retai l demand general ly outpaces supply within the Trade Area boundaries, signif icant retai l nodes are located nearby, which attract local resident spending. These areas include:

The Walmart at Howell Mill Rd.

Atlantic Station

The Mall at West End

RETAIL LOCATION HEAT MAP

Retail Square Feet


The Trade Area’s share of the c ity ’s retai l space has remained relat ively stable, dropping by approximately 0.2% over the past decade.

1.0%

1.1%

1.2%

1.3%

1.4%

1.5%

1.6%

1.7%

1.8%

2000Q1

2001Q1

2002Q1

2003Q1

2004Q1

2005Q1

2006Q1

2007Q1

2008Q1

2009Q1

2010Q1

2011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

QTD

Total SF

Occupied SF

Trade Area Share of City of Atlanta Retail Square Feet

TRADE AREA SHARE OF RETAIL VS. CITY OF ATLANTA

SUPPLY

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2000Q1

2001Q1

2002Q1

2003Q1

2004Q1

2005Q1

2006Q1

2007Q1

2008Q1

2009Q1

2010Q1

2011Q1

2012Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

QTD

Study Area

City of Atlanta

Trade Area

Since the onset of the Great Recession retai l vacancy rates in the Trade Area have remained above the c ity of At lanta rate, general ly 9% -10%.

VACANCY

SUPPLY

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group,

based on data from CoStar


Retai l rents in the Trade Area have remained signif icantly lower than c itywide rents s ince 2008, and below national/regional rates –typical ly $15-$20/SF.

AVERAGE RENT

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 QTD

Study Area City of Atlanta

SUPPLY

Source: Bleakly Advisory Group,

based on data from CoStar

Trade Area


ANNUAL ABSORPTION

(100,000)

(50,000)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(500,000)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Trade Area Annual Retail Space Absorption

City of Atlanta Annual Retail Space Absorption

SUPPLY

Source: Bleakly

Advisory Group, based

on data from CoStar

Although local retai l space absorption has been modest over the past decade, the future planned improvements in the area have the potential to accelerate future absorption trends.


TRADE AREA ASSESSMENT


S ign i f i cant locat ion: in the hear t o f the At lanta reg ion

Access to outs ide consumer support

Var iety o f locat ions for a var iety o f reta i lers

Support ive communi ty w i th deep commercia l h i s tory

TRADE AREA ASSESSMENT

Strengths

Challenges

Opportunities

Lack ing demographics (househo ld dens i ty, incomes) to att ract w ide range o f nat iona l reta i lers

Lower t raf f ic counts on major ar ter ia l s

Few larger s i tes for addi t iona l reta i l deve lopment

Histor i ca l l y lag g ing per formance o f cur rent reta i l o f fer ings

Lack o f concentrated commercia l presence

Lack o f employment and tour i st o f fer ings w i th in the Trade Area

Leverage new investment and attent ion in the area to att ract addi t iona l reta i lers at key cata ly t i c s i tes

Recapture a por t ion o f reta i l l eakage wi th demand f rom new growth

Redeve lopment at centra l ne ighborhood locat ions prov ide smal ler -sca le potent ia l , whi le locat ions near the new stad ium and the Congress Center prov ide la rger -sca le potent ia l opportunit ies .


RETAIL MARKET DEMAND POTENTIALSTATISTICAL DEMAND

Additional

Outside Support

•Current Expenditure (Demand)

•Current Retail Sales (Supply)

$ Leakage By Store Type =

Opportunity Gap

•Expected Sales per Square Foot by Store Type for Current and Future Households

Potential Gross

Square Feet Potential Capture

Rate

Future retail potential estimates are based on statistical demand modeling as diagrammed below:

Trade Area

Future

Retail

Potential


RETAIL STORE TYPE EXAMPLESFOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Example: FloristLocal Business/Service Space

Laundry / Dry CleanersSporting Goods

Food / Restaurants

Community Health Space


RETAIL STORE TYPE EXAMPLESFOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES

Home Furnishings

Electronics

Health and Personal Care

Building Material, Garden EquipmentClothing

General Merchandise


Business incubators can be essentia l to creating entrepreneurs in the local area, who in turn, wil l occupy local commercial real estate.

Business incubators nurture the development of early stage and new companies, helping them survive and grow during the start -up period, when they are most vulnerable.

To encourage business growth and job creation in the c ity, Invest At lanta works with businesses to f ind opportunit ies that wil l help them thrive. Invest At lanta can be an act ive resource to any business for ventures within the c ity l imits.

Kent Spencer, Manager of Business Retention & Expansion

BUSINESS INCUBATOR

https://blog.galaxyweblinks.com/know-how-business-incubator-

can-help-launch-your-startup/

Innovation Depot, Birmingham, AL


“OUTSIDE” / NON-RESIDENT RETAIL SUPPORT

Category of Event

Total Number of Out-of-State Visitor

Days

Average Daily Expenditures Per Out-

of State Visitor

GWCC 1,361,762 $ 258.34

Trade Shows 812,637 $ 292.52

Trade Show/Corp 90,999 $ 250.22

Convention w/o exhibits - Conferences 130,719 $ 202.69

Amateur Sports - Large 226,464 $ 197.10

Amateur Sports - Local 13,943 $ 245.85

Graduations 7,503

Consumer Shows 59,029 $ 169.84

General Meetings 20,468 $ 234.43

Georgia Dome 848,773 $ 301.83

Spectator Events 789,609 $ 309.20

General Meetings 59,164 $ 203.41

Total 2,210,535

Support from attendees to Mercedes -Benz Stadium and the Georgia World Congress Center provide potential to support and enhance Trade Area opportunities.

Assuming $100/day of retail and restaurant expenditures by out -of-state vis itors, these attendees represent and additional potential market of $221 mill ion annually that is currently not captured in the Trade Area.

An attractive and convenient destination nearby in the Trade Area could capture up to 5% of this spending, and thus support approximately 50,000 SF retail and restaurant space.

Source: Georgia World Congress Center Authority

Implementing multiple solutions for pedestrians to cross Northside Drive wil l be key to capturing this demand within the Westside Trade Area.


Atlanta U. Center

Approx. Students/

Employees

Est. Total Annual

Spending

Est. 2016 Discretionary

Spending @ 30%

Potential Trade Area

Capture 2021

Est. Sales Per SF

Supported SF

Students 8,000 $101,760,000 $30,528,000 15% $250 18,317

Faculty & Staff 1,950 $227,749,685 $68,324,905 5% $250 13,665

TOTAL $329,509,685 $98,852,905 31,982

“OUTSIDE” / NON-RESIDENT RETAIL SUPPORT

Atlanta University Center (AUC) Member Institutions

Capturing addit ional spending by AUC faculty, staff, and students offers the potential for addit ional retai l support in the AUC area, as wel l as the surrounding neighborhoods.

Based on the assumptions shown at r ight, discretionary spending from AUC on items including food, entertainment, electronics , apparel , and personal care items support up to 32,000 SF of off -campus retai l space.

As new spending patterns are establ ished, after the f ive -year t imeframe, the potential exists to grow support for retai l from this group by increasing the capture of discret ionary spending.

Sources: Bleakly Advisory Group, AUC Institutions, “The Economic Impact of University System of Georgia Institutions on their Regional Economies in FY 2015” by UGA, “College Explorer” by Refuel Agency/Crux Research


The Trade Area has the potential to add 112,500 – 129,500 square feet of new retail offerings over the next f ive years.

FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL – WESTSIDE TRADE AREA

These new offerings will need to attract:

Additional spending capture from current residents and local college students

Capture of new resident spending

Capture of spending from outside consumers to events at GWCC & Georgia Dome.

Pote

ntia

l F

utu

re S

q. F

eet


New Retail Potential by Store Type

Store Type Sq. Foot Range

Electronics Stores 4,000 - 4,750

Health and Personal Care Stores 7,000 - 8,000

Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 7,000 - 8,250

Other General Merchandise Stores 8,000 - 10,000

Miscellaneous Store Retailers 6,000 - 7,500

Local Serving Office / Health 18,000 - 21,000

Laundry and Dry Cleaning 4,500 - 5,500

Sporting Goods Stores 2,000 - 2,500

Food/Beverage Stores 33,500 - 36,500

Restaurants 22,000 - 25,500

Total Square Feet Potential Demand 112,000 - 129,500

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000


Current households in the Trade Area

represent over half of the potential market audience for future retai l in the area.

Over 2,000 future new households have the potential to move to the Trade Area in the next f ive years, based on the recent Residential Market Analysis conducted for the Westside Future Fund. These households could support 15% -20% of the potential new retai l in the area.

Approximately one-quarter of the potential new retai l would be supported by demand

from “non-resident support”

Local College Students

Local Employees

Mercedes-Benz Stadium & Ga. World Congress Center attendees.

FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL MARKET AUDIENCES

Market Support

56%

16%

28%Current Households

Future Households

Outside Support


Because each Westside neighborhood is unique with varying population, infrastructure and building environments, the potential future retail opportunities also vary. Estimated future square foot potential is shown at right.

These future estimates are subject to change due to the dynamic nature of the local market area. Changing development scenarios within a particular neighborhood could cause the potential space allocations to shift from one location to another.

FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL – WESTSIDE TRADE AREA


New Retail Potential by Neighborhood

Sq. Foot Range

English Ave. 13,000 - 16,500

Vine City 68,000 - 77,000

Ashview Heights 10,000 - 12,000

AUC Neighborhood 21,000 - 24,000

TOTAL 112,000 - 129,500


ENGLISH AVENUE5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL

Future

BeltlineJoseph E. Boone Blvd.

Joseph E

. Low

ery

Blv

d.

Mims

Park

Potential Location for New Retail

Current GDOT Traffic CountsJoseph E. Lowery: 11,100 ADTJoseph E. Boone: 5,300 ADT

Jam

es P

. B

raw

ley

Dr.

Cameron M. Alexander Blvd.

First St. Mark AME

Store Type







Sq. Foot Range


With the addit ion of new resident ial homes nearby, retai l offerings at the Boone/Lowery intersect ion can be expanded to include Miscel laneous Store Retai lers (such as Flor ists) , Laundry, Restaurants and other options.

The new Mims Park can help attract s imilar complementary offerings.

Retai l offer ings at the J.P. Brawley/C.M. Alexander intersect ion can supplement current smaller-scale retai l offer ings to include Local Serving Off ice and Restaurants.

A potential entrepreneur ial/art isans incubator could also be located in the histor ic St . Mark AME structure, this wil l help to drive retai l demand.

Upon ful l development the Belt l ine wil l add addit ional retai l potentia l , l ikely a long Boone.

ENGLISH AVENUE5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL

Urban Perform: a non-profit gym providing exercise and nutrition opportunities located at 678 Joseph E Boone Blvd. near the future Mims Park

Current Conditions

For more details: www.planwestside.com


Current GDOT Traffic CountsJoseph E. Lowery: 13,500 ADTMLK Drive:8,750 ADTNorthside Dr. @ Stadium:29,300 ADT

VINE CITY5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL

Mercedes-

Benz

Stadium

Georgia

World

Congress

Center





Other General Merchandise Stores 8000 - 10000




Sporting Goods Stores 2,000 - 2,500




Nort

hsid

e D

rive

Joseph E

. Low

ery

Blv

d.


M.L.K. Jr. Drive


MLK Jr. Drive at the Historic Wests ide Vi l lage serves as a neighborhood center with higher levels of pedestr ian traff ic . This area has potentia l to provide addit ional neighborhood retai l offer ings across a range of store types.

Transit Oriented Development (TOD) at the two MARTA transit stations in this area (Ashby and Vine City) can help capture additional retail demand.

Northside Drive has the potential to attract larger national retai lers and can serve as a retai l node for Trade Area residents, as well as attract stadium and Congress Center attendees.

National tenants, including a small - format grocery store, could be integrated into a “Retai l/Mixed Use Destination” along Northside Drive. This dest ination could serve as a beacon for outside spending support, which would help provide goods and services for local residents.

VINE CITY5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL

Current Conditions

The Land Use Action Team surveyed MLK JR. Drive merchants on-site as part of this assignment.

For more details: www.planwestside.com


ASHVIEW HEIGHTS / WASHINGTON PARK5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL







Truly Living Well

Center for Natural

Urban Agriculture


Future

Beltline

The corner o f Lawton and Westv iew current ly ser ves as a com muni ty “crossroads” and has the potent ia l for sm al l - sca le redevelopment, captur ing m om entum f rom the new Tru ly L iv ing Wel l C enter for Natura l Urban Agr i cu l ture and future B e l t l ine development .

Fair Street

Joseph E

. Low

ery

Blv

d.


While retai l potentia l is l ikely modest in the short-term in Ashview Heights/Washington Park due to few commercial s ite locat ions, as well as intervening nearby opportunit ies in Vine City and the AUC area, a redevelopment of off ice propert ies on the south side of the 900 block of MLK Drive could prompt addit ional demand.

ASHVIEW HEIGHTS / WASHINGTON PARK5-YEAR FUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL

Ashview Heights/Washington Park residents stated at input sess ions as part of this study that they desire the fol lowing commercial options nearby:

retail fronting on Truly Living Well farm

“walk-to” businesses in the neighborhood

dry cleaner

gym, health center

cafe with patio

natural food grocery store

clothing store

ice cream store

bike shop

restaurants


T he facu l ty, s taff, and students at At lanta Un ivers i ty C enter inst i tut ions prov ide potent ia l support for a range of add i t iona l reta i l opportuni t ies at or near cam pus.

At lanta Hous ing Author i ty (AHA) p lans for add i t iona l hous ing at the Scho lars Land ing development w i l l he lp support add i t iona l reta i l .

AHA has proposed a redevelopment concept for h i stor i c Roosevel t Ha l l that cou ld prov ide space for a port ion o f the future reta i l potent ia l in the area .

AUC NEIGHBORHOODFUTURE RETAIL POTENTIAL Total New Retail Potential: AUC Neighborhood

AHA Choice

Neighborhoods

Future Scholars

Landing

Development

Current GDOT Traffic CountsJoseph E. Lowery: 17,600 ADT

566 new

residential

units

Joseph E

. Low

ery

Blv

d.











RETAIL RECOMMENDATIONS

Key Elements of a Coordinated Retail Strategy for the Trade Area:

Attract more retail shoppers in the area through continued growth in “rooftops”

“Retail Follows Rooftops”

Long-range objective: Double the number of households to increase, not only the viability of the area, but also generate more self -sustaining retail demand.

Seek out new neighbors and embrace them by promoting new housing in various formats—Westside neighborhoods have the potential to become a laboratory for new housing activity.

Leverage the considerable support structure

Invest Atlanta and private entities, such as the Westside Future Fund, are prepared to provide assistance in local redevelopment initiatives. Monetary and social enterprise incentives will often be necessary to attract market opportunities.


RETAIL RECOMMENDATIONS:

Key Elements of a Coordinated Retail Strategy for the Trade Area:

Create clusters of retail that serve community needs and leverage current infrastructure and investments

Attract a “critical mass” of small-scale retail at key transportation intersections, particularly near transit stations.

Retail offerings could be supplemented by small community medical -related facilities that will drive daily demand to the area. Explore partnerships with local medical schools.

Retail nodes along Northside Drive can provide larger retail concentration due to potential to attract outside consumers. Local residents will benefit with the expanded opportunities.

Grow the retail sector by retaining more of the current expenditure “leakage”

Focus on food, services and neighborhood needs.

Capture more student and faculty spending.


RETAIL SITE SELECTION PRIMER


RETAIL REALITY: SITE SELECTION

Typical Challenges of New Store Development Based on National Case Studies

Crime and/or the perception of crime

Market data often misrepresents the economic potential and purchasing power

Securing appropriate development sites is more challenging in urban areas

Increased development costs in the form of higher construction costs and cumbersome approval and permitting processes



DEMAND

SUPPLY

SITE

SPACERETAIL SITE

SELECTION

WHY DO STORES GO WHERE THEY GO?

How many people might shop there?

Demographics:

# of Households

Incomes

Etc.

What competition is

there already?

How does the

competition

perform?

Which location can generate the

most sales?

- Traffic Counts

- Parking

- Access

Which space best

suits retailer’s

needs?

Is space

available?


Demographics – population, household incomes (or total purchasing power), characteristics, future growth Retailers need to attract a certain number of people at certain income levels in order to survive

DEMAND

Store Type

Population Necessary

to Support

Corner Store 500

Convenience Store 2,000

Delicatessen and Bakery 3,000

Snack Bar 3,000

Beauty Parlor 3,000

Drug Store 5,000

Hardware Store 5,000

Bank Branch 5,000

Supermarket 10,000

Thresholds of Community Stores (Rules of Thumb)



National retai lers typical ly fol low demand with differing requirements for their stores.

Westside Trade Area meets some, not all, of the national chain requirements.

Examples (for illustrative purposes):

Store Trade Area Population Location/Other

National Drug

Store

2 mile radius 20,000 Intersection of two

main streets with

significant traffic

counts

Grocery Store 3 mile radius 20,000+ On high-visibility,

high traffic corridor

Pet Supermarket 3 mile radius 50,000 25,000 daily vehicle

traffic count

Firehouse Subs 3 mile radius 20,000+ $35,000 median

household income

Denny's 3 mile radius 40,000 30,000 daily vehicle

traffic count

RETAIL REALITY: SITE SELECTION SITE

Westside Future Fund Retail Market Analysis & Recommendations Sept. 2016

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Westside Future Fund Retail Market Analysis & Recommendations Sept. 2016