Westin Gaslamp Hotel, San Diego, CA · 2017-10-19 · Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting...
Transcript of Westin Gaslamp Hotel, San Diego, CA · 2017-10-19 · Presented by: Len Steiner Steiner Consulting...
Presented by: Len Steiner
Steiner Consulting Group, 800.526.4612
MICA 2017 Annual General Meeting & Conference
Westin Gaslamp Hotel, San Diego, CA
October 24 to 27, 2017supporting and promoting imported meat
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Main Discussion Points Today
#1: Economic Situation in US and World
#2: Currency Markets
#3: Feed Input Costs
#4: Cattle Supplies in USA, Canada and Mexico
#5: Product Availability from Importing Partnerso Special Discussion on Argentina
#6: Demand in US Domestic Market
#7: Demand in Other Markets (Competition)
#8: Supplies of Competing Proteins
#9: US Lamb Business
#10: Price Forecasts
- 1 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Global Situation – Last Year
2
Source: Moody's Economy.com, Steiner
Canada: Q2 GDP
declined 1.7%, higher
recession risk at this time
USA: robust job
growth continues to
point to a more
rapid expansion
pace for remainder
of the year
Mexico: GDP
accelerated to 2.8% in
Q1. Growth on track
EU
Brexit delayed
effects remain
a negative for
2017
Brazil: Economy
contracted 6% in
Q1. Political
issues persist and
unemployment at
11.6% in July
Argentina:
Economy continues to
struggle and weak
commodity markets
have added to the
negative outlook
Australia:
Q2 growth +3.3% vs.
year ago despite
slower export growth
India:
Economy is growing
and inflation remains
low
New Zealand:
Q2 growth
+3.6%, helps
bolster NZD
Japan:
Monetary policy fails
to fight deflation
China:
Growth in Q2 was 6.7% in
line with estimates.
Overcapacity problems will
continue to weigh down
Russia:
Low energy prices and
weak commodities are
big negative for growth
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Global Situation – Current
- 3 -
Canada: robust growth
in Q1. Export growth
remains a weak point
USA: job market
recovery continues.
Growth rebounded in
Q2 and expansion
remains on track
EU
Impact of Brexit
starting to be felt in
UK. North/East
expanding and even
South is recovering
Brazil: Two
consecutive
quarters of positive
growth.
Argentina:
Continued improvement
in business conditions
and higher commodity
prices bolstering growth
India:
Growth has slowed but
expansion remains on
track New Zealand:
Low
unemployment,
higher inflation,
more growth
Japan:
Modest inflation and
weaker Yen is
supportive
China:
Growth has recovered.
Consumer spending
accelerated in last two
quarters, which is key as
economy relies less on heavy
industry
Russia:
Finally out of recession economy
slowly recovering. GDP +0.3%,
inflation down to 4%
Source: Moody's Economy.com, Steiner
Mexico: GDP growth
was 2.8% in Q1, up from
2.3% in previous quarter
Australia:
Q2 growth was up 0.8%, a
much faster pace than the
previous quarter.
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#1 Economic Situation in US and WorldGlobal Economic Growth Expected to Further Expand in 2018
Source: Moody's Economy.com
- 4 -
World N. Am. S. Am. Euro Asia Oceania
2014 2.5 2.4 0.0 1.1 4.3 2.7
2015 2.6 2.5 -1.9 1.9 4.5 2.5
2016 2.3 1.6 -2.9 1.7 4.5 2.6
2017 Fcst 2.9 2.2 0.3 2.2 4.7 2.2
2018 Fcst 3.0 2.9 2.2 1.7 4.5 2.5
Last update: September 18, 2017
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
World N. Am. S. Am. Euro Asia Oceania
REAL GDPGROWTH % GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK
2015 2016 2017 Fcst 2018 Fcst
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#1 Economic Situation in US and WorldExpansion to Be Sustained in 2018 But Risks Mount
Positives
- Near full employment
- Low rates
- Weaker US$
- Income growth
- Low household debt
- Strong corporate balance sheets
- Banks in good shape
- Export demand
Negatives
- Rising inflation pressures
- Qualified labor shortages
- China debt
- Political risk in US and Europe
- Geopolitical risk (war)
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* Forecast: Moody’s
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
% ch.ANNUAL USA GROWTH RATE OF GDP
Annualized Quarterly Growth Rate
forecast
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#1 Economic Situation in US and WorldUS economy has added jobs consistently since 2011
- 6 -
- Economy has added 1.8MM jobs in the last 12 months. Job creation contracted in
September due to short term storm effects. Leisure and hospitality was down 111,000 jobs.
- Foodservice has been one of the main job creators
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
TH
OU
SA
ND
JO
BS
NEW JOB CREATION: NON AGRICULTURAL, 000's
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
perc
ent
USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: %
September 20174.2%
Dec 2018 Forecast
4.1%
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#1 Economic Situation in US and WorldOverall foodservice dollar sales continue to grow but…
Dollar sales growth has slowed down, in part due to lower food inflation.
Deflation has impacted retail sales more than foodservice.
- 7 -
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
GROCERY STORE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.Latest Data is for August 2017
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
FOODSERVICE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.Latest Data is for August 2017
Source: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Foodservice, US Census Bureau
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#1 Economic Situation in US and WorldFast Food Outperformed Other Sectors In August
- 8 -
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
FOODSERVICE $ SALES : Y/Y % CH.Latest Data is for August 2017
Same Store Sales - August 2017 vs. August 2016, Tracking Survey Responses by Industry
Segment Source: National Restaurant Association
FamilyDining
CasualDining
FineDining
LimitedService
QuickCasual
Higher Sales 36% 31% 36% 62% 45%
Lower Sales 34% 43% 64% 17% 55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
SAME STORE SALES
Source: US Census Source: National Restaurant Association
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#1 Economic Situation in US and WorldOne possibility for low traffic is that food at home now much cheaper
- 9 -
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Food CPI Comparisons. Jan 2008 = 100Source: BLS. Analysis by Steiner.
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Food atLimited
ServiceRestaurants
Food awayfrom home
Food atHome
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
A More Chaotic/Diverse Food Delivery System
Before
- RETAIL/GROCERY
- FOODSERVICE
Now
- RETAIL/GROCERY
- Cooked Meals
- Meal Kits
- In-store restaurants
- FOODSERVICE
- Restaurant meals
- Carryout Meals
- Meal delivery/UberEATS
- Food trucks
- Online/Meal Kits/Amazon Fresh
- Blue Apron, Prepared Meal Programs
- 10 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
# 2 Currency MarketsPerformance of US$ vs. Imported Beef Currencies in last 12 months
- 11 -
US Dollar vs. Currencies of Top Meat Trading Partners % change in the last 12 months (Nov 2016 - Oct 2016)
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 Jun '17 Jul '17 Aug '17 Sep '17 Oct '17
USD/NZD
USD/AUD
USD/CAD
USD/Peso Positive for US importsNegative for US exports
Negative for US importsPositive for US exports
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
# 2 Currency MarketsPrice of Imported 90CL Beef in US$ Remains Near Levels from 2012
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307
240
-22%
US $200 cwtUS $210/cwt
100
150
200
250
300
350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Price of 90CL Imported Beef in US Market (CIF) Prices in US$/cwt
USD/cwt
Price inUSD
Oct 2012
Current
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
# 2 Currency MarketsPrice of Imported 90CL Beef in US$ Terms & AUD Terms
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Oct-12
Oct-17
$270/cwt
$210/cwt
100
150
200
250
300
350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Price of 90CL Imported Beef in US Market (CIF East Coast). Prices in US$/cwt and AUD/cwt
USD/cwt
Price inUSD and AUD
AUD/cwt+33% gain from
currency shift
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#3 Feed Input CostsThree Consecutive Years of Above Trend Yields = A lot of Corn
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Corn yields:
2012 – 123.1 bu.
2017 – 171.8 bu.
=
+40%
increase
TREND CORN YIELDS AND 2017-18 ESTIMATED YIELDSCorn Yields Since 1990. More Stable and Higher Yields in the Last Decade Point to Effect of Technological Improvements. Data from USDA.
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2013 2014
2015
2016
2012not included in trend
1990 - 2016 Linear Trend
2017USDA Est.
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#3 Feed Input CostsCorn Acres Lower in 2017 But Large Carryover Offsets the Decline
Since 2007 planted acres have averaged 91 million.
+
Above average yields =
Corn production
outpacing
consumption
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93.5
88.0
94.0
90.4
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
19
80/8
1
19
81/8
2
19
82/8
3
19
83/8
4
19
84/8
5
19
85/8
6
19
86/8
7
19
87/8
8
19
88/8
9
19
89/9
0
19
90/9
1
19
91/9
2
19
92/9
3
19
93/9
4
19
94/9
5
19
95/9
6
19
96/9
7
19
97/9
8
19
98/9
9
19
99/0
0
20
00/0
1
20
01/0
2
20
02/0
3
20
03/0
4
20
04/0
5
20
05/0
6
20
06/0
7
20
07/0
8
20
08/0
9
20
09/1
0
20
10/1
1
20
11/1
2
20
12/1
3
20
13/1
4
20
14/1
5
20
15/1
6
20
16/1
7
20
17/1
8
million acresUS CORN PLANTED ACRES
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#3 Feed Input CostsCorn supplies will be plentiful for another 12 months
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2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
USDA
Actual
USDA
Actual
USDA
Actual
USDA
Estimate
USDA
Sep Est
USDA
Oct Est
vs.
2015/16
vs.
2016/17
.
Planted 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.9 90.4 2.7% -3.8%
Harvested 87.5 83.1 80.8 86.7 83.5 83.1 2.8% -4.2%
Yield per harvested acre 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 169.9 171.8 2.0% -1.6%
Beginning stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,350 2,295 32.6% 32.1%
Production 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,184 14,280 5.0% -5.7%
Imports 36 32 67 55 50 50 -25.4% -9.1%
Supply, total 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,940 16,585 16,625 7.9% -1.9%
Feed and residual 5,040 5,280 5,123 5,500 5,475 5,500 7.4% 0.0%
Ethanol for fuel 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,450 5,475 5,475 4.8% 0.5%
Food, seed and residual 1,369 1,401 1,424 1,440 1,450 1,460 2.5% 1.4%
Domestic use, total 11,534 11,881 11,771 12,390 12,400 12,435 5.6% 0.4%
Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,225 1,850 1,850 -2.5% -16.9%
Use, total 13,454 13,748 13,669 14,615 14,250 14,285 4.5% -2.3%
Ending stocks 1,232 1,731 1,732 2,325 2,335 2,340 35.1% 0.6%
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.25-3.55 2.80-3.60 2.80-3.60 -11.4% -5.9%
Ending Stocks/Use 9.2% 12.6% 12.7% 15.9% 16.4% 16.4%
Source: USDA
** Corn crop marketing year starts September 1.
% Change2017/18
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
Build up in stocks
More going into feed
Stalled exports
Lower prices required to keep the flow moving
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#3 Feed Input CostsEthanol Demand Is Flat, Limiting Demand for Corn in Domestic Market
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
MIL BU. CORN USED FOR ETHANOL PRODUCTION IN USA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
% OF TOAL USE CORN USED FOR ETHANOL AS % OF TOTAL USE
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#3 Feed Input CostsFilling the gap - feed use highest in a decade
- 18 -
Amount of corn
going into
livestock/poultry
consumption is at
highest point in 10
years
5,858
4,315
5,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
million bu. US CORN GOING INTO LIVESTOCK & POULTRY FEED (+ residual)
2017-18
2007-08
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
All time record meat protein production in 2017
and expected to continue in 2018 and 2019
Combined Beef, Pork, Broiler and Turkey ProductionMillion Pounds. Carcass Wt. Basis. Steiner Forecasts
90,929
103,357
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
+14%2007 – 14 Avg.
91.2 MM
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Growth Expected for All Major Proteins
2015 2016 % CH. 2017 % CH. 2018 % CH. 2019 % CH.
BEEF 23,698 25,221 6.4% 26,253 4.1% 27,255 3.8% 28,066 3.0%
PORK 24,501 24,941 1.8% 25,604 2.7% 26,353 2.9% 26,859 1.9%
BROILERS 39,636 40,260 1.6% 40,965 1.8% 41,660 1.7% 42,316 1.6%
TURKEYS 5,551 5,905 6.4% 5,927 0.4% 5,963 0.6% 6,116 2.6%
LAMB 150 150 -0.1% 142 -5.4% 144 1.0% 155 8.0%
VEAL 83 76 -8.3% 79 4.6% 87 9.7% 90 3.7%
TOTAL 93,620 96,553 3.1% 98,970 2.5% 101,461 2.5% 103,602 2.1%
20
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 USA Cattle/Beef Supplies
Jan 1, 2018 Inventory + 6.3 MILLION higher than in 2014
- 21 -
INVENTORY (000 OMITTED) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% Ch. vs.
2016
2018
Estimate
% Ch. vs.
2016
ALL CATTLE AND CALVES 94,403 95,018 96,342 96,573 96,035 94,721 94,081 92,887 91,160 90,095 88,526 89,143 91,918 93,585 1.8% 94,816 1.3%
COW AND HEIFERS THAT HAVE CALVED 41,519 41,678 41,806 41,789 41,692 41,127 40,526 40,068 39,517 38,853 38,293 38,609 39,476 40,559 2.7% 40,865 0.8%
BEEF COWS 32,531 32,674 32,703 32,644 32,435 31,794 31,440 30,913 30,282 29,631 29,085 29,302 30,166 31,210 3.5% 31,500 0.9%
DAIRY COWS 8,988 9,004 9,104 9,145 9,257 9,333 9,087 9,156 9,236 9,221 9,208 9,307 9,310 9,349 0.4% 9,365 0.2%
HEIFERS 500LBS. AND OVER 19,282 19,445 19,950 20,074 19,855 19,604 19,778 19,650 19,445 19,256 18,969 19,261 19,907 20,052 0.7% 20,242 0.9%
BEEF COW REPLACEMENT 5,508 5,638 5,864 5,835 5,647 5,550 5,443 5,135 5,281 5,429 5,551 6,086 6,340 6,419 1.2% 6,392 -0.4%
DAIRY COW REPALCEMENT 4,018 4,117 4,298 4,325 4,415 4,410 4,551 4,577 4,618 4,546 4,549 4,710 4,814 4,754 -1.2% 4,775 0.4%
OTHER HEIFERS 9,756 9,690 9,788 9,914 9,793 9,644 9,784 9,938 9,546 9,281 8,869 8,464 8,753 8,879 1.4% 9,075 2.2%
STEERS 500 LBS. AND OVER 16,201 16,466 16,988 17,185 17,163 16,809 16,568 16,394 15,957 15,931 15,668 15,630 16,315 16,354 0.2% 16,698 2.1%
BULLS 500 LBS. AND OVER 2,201 2,214 2,258 2,214 2,207 2,188 2,190 2,165 2,100 2,074 2,038 2,109 2,142 2,234 4.3% 2,237 0.1%
HFRS, STRS AND BULLS UNDER 500 LBS. 15,200 15,215 15,339 15,311 15,118 14,994 15,019 14,610 14,141 13,983 13,558 13,534 14,077 14,386 2.2% 14,774 2.7%
ANNUAL CALF CROP 37,260 37,106 37,016 36,759 36,158 35,939 35,740 35,357 34,469 33,730 33,522 34,087 35,083 36,300 3.5%
JANUARY 1st U. S. CATTLE INVENTORY
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 USA Cattle/Beef SuppliesFour Years into the Current Cycle
- 22 -
Comparing US Cattle Cycles of the Last +50 YearsY/Y Change in Cattle Inventories.
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10 +11 +12 +13 +14
1958 - 1967
1967 - 1979
1979 - 1990
1990 - 2004
2014 - Current
# of years from the start of the cycle
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 Cattle/Beef SuppliesUS Cattle Inventories were +1.8% in 2017 and Forecast +1.3% in 2018
- 23 -
1958 = 91,176
1975 = 132,028
1990 = 95,816
1996 = 103,548
2004 = 94,403
2007 = 96,573
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
TOTA
L IN
VEN
TORIE
S,
00
0 O
MIT
TED
CATTLE INVENTORIES, 000 HEAD, 1920 - 2017 + 2018 Forecast
Jan 1, 201894.8 mil head
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 Cattle/Beef SuppliesHigher Calf Crop + Heavy Weights = +5% Beef Production in 2016
- 24 -
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
34300
34952
1.9%
652
50000
30000
0.6
2010
16,800
17,900
19,000
20,100
21,200
22,300
23,400
24,500
25,600
26,700
27,800
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
Calf Crop'000 head
CALF CROP (1-Yr Lag) AND US BEEF PRODUCTION: 1980 - 2016
Calf Crop(left axis)
Beef Prodmil lb.
Beef Prod.(right axis)
BeefProduction
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 Cattle/Beef SuppliesWeights Expected to Return to Trend, Outperform 2017 Next Year
- 25 -
650
680
710
740
770
800
830
860
DR
ESSE
D W
EIG
HTS
, PO
UN
DS
FI CATTLE AVERAGE DRESSED WEIGHTS: 1990 - 2017Dressed Carcass Weights. Weekly. USDA
spring 2017
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 Cattle/Beef SuppliesUS Productivity (feedlot based) vs. Other Key Producers/Exporters
- 26 -
BEEF KILOGRAM PRODUCED (DRESSED WT.) PER ANIMAL IN THE HERD. ANNUALSOURCE: USDA
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
USA
Australia
Brazil
N. Zealand
UruguayArgentina
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 Cattle/Beef SuppliesUS Cattle Prices Back to 2010 Levels…But Volatility Persists
- 27 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 Cattle/Beef SuppliesProfitability Indicators. Cattle/Corn Ratio Remains Above Long Run Trend
Long run ratio of 30 (cattle price $/cwt divided by corn price in $/bushel)
Assume corn price in 2018 of $3.75 (current futures)
30 * 3.5 = $112/cwt fed cattle
However, strong demand could support fed cattle prices above these levels, which then induces producers to continue to expand as long as weather/profitability permits.
- 28 -
4.5
3.41
-0.24222
3.5
28
98
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
RA
TIO
5 AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER PRICES/OMAHA CORN PRICES, #2 YELLOW 1990 - 2017
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 Cattle/Beef SuppliesCow Calf Profits No Longer Support Rapid Expansion
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW-CALF RETURNSReturns over cash costs (includes pasture rent), Annual, US$/cow
forecast
Source: LMIC
- 29 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 Cattle/Beef SuppliesFemale Slaughter Ratio Indicates Expansion is Slowing Down But Not Over Yet
MAKE SURE TO ADJUST DATA RANGE IN THE CHART
0.38
0.40
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.52
0.54
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ratio of Female Slaughter (Heifers + Cows) To Total US Cattle SlaughterWeekly Data and 52wk Moving Average. Last Reported Week is September 30, 2017
52-wk MA
weeklyratio
- 30 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#4 Cattle/Beef SuppliesCow Slaughter Outlook for rest of 2017 & in 2018
Total cow slaughter for Jan – Sep = 4.3MM head, +7.2% higher than a year ago.
Forecast for cow slaughter in 2017 = +6.8%
Forecast for cow slaughter in 2018 =
+5.0%
Ratio of Cow Slaughter vs. January 1 All Cow InventoryAnnual Data. Source: USDA
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17F
20
18F
Est.
1990 - 2016 Avg.
- 31 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#5 Imported BeefKey Metrics for Major Global Beef Importers
Cattle
Population
Human
Population
Cattle/
Person
Cattle
Slaughter
Cattle Sltr./
Cattle Inv.
Beef
Production
Prod. KG /
Cattle Sltr.
Beef
Exports
Beef Exports /
Beef Prod.
000 head mil. People 000 head MT, CWE KG, CWE
USA 89,143 322 0.28 34,302 0.38 10,815 315 1,028 10%
CANADA 11,920 36 0.33 4,262 0.36 1,050 246 391 37%
MEXICO 17,120 127 0.13 6,850 0.40 1,850 270 228 12%
AUSTRALIA 29,102 24 1.21 9,664 0.33 2,547 264 1,854 73%
N. ZEALAND 10,368 5 2.23 4,839 0.47 690 143 639 93%
BRAZIL 213,035 204 1.04 48,220 0.23 9,425 195 1,705 18%
URUGUAY 12,053 3 3.53 2,750 0.23 570 207 373 65%
ARGENTINA 51,545 43 1.20 13,700 0.27 2,740 200 186 7%
INDIA 301,100 1293 0.23 67,000 0.22 4,100 61 1,806 44%
Data source: USDA
- 32 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#5 Imported Beef AvailabilityJanuary Inventory trends in Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay & Brazil
- 33 -
0
10,183
10,368
10,033
10,152
10,255
10,381
9,600
9,700
9,800
9,900
10,000
10,100
10,200
10,300
10,400
10,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
NEW ZEALAND CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKSSource: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service000 head
1.8%
-3.2%
1.2%
1.0%
1.2%
0
29,29129,102
27,413
26,142
26,550
27,050
24,500
25,000
25,500
26,000
26,500
27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
30,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
AUSTRALIA CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKSSource: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service000 head
-0.6%
-5.8%
-4.6%
1.6%
1.9%
0
11,903
12,053
11,950
11,86411,804
11,934
10,800
11,000
11,200
11,400
11,600
11,800
12,000
12,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
URUGUAY CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKSSource: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service000 head
1.3%
-0.9%
-0.7%
-0.5%
1.1%
0
207,959
213,035
219,180
226,045
232,350
238,407
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
230,000
240,000
250,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
BRAZIL CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKSSource: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service000 head
2.4%
2.9%
3.1%
2.8%
0
51,545 51,545
52,565
53,515
54,215
55,215
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
ARGENTINA CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKSSource: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service000 head
2.0%
1.8%
1.3%
1.8%
0
17,760
17,120
16,615 16,490 16,583 16,658
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
MEXICO CATTLE INVENTORIES: JANUARY 1 STOCKSSource: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service000 head
-3.6%
-2.9%-0.8% 0.6% 0.5%
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#5 Imported Beef AvailabilityAustralian Slaughter – Will We Stop Getting a Weekly Update?
- 34 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#5 Imported Beef AvailabilityAustralia Beef Exports to the US & US Market Share
- 35 -
AUSTRALIAN MONTHLY BEEF SHIPMENTS TO THE US % OF AUSTRALIAN MONTHLY BEEF EXPORTS GOING TO USA 1998 - 2017, metric ton, shipped wt. Source: Australian Department of Water and Agricultural Resources 1998 - 2017, metric ton, shipped wt. Source: Australian Department of Water and Agricultural Resources
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
metric ton, shipped wt.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% of all shipments
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#6 Demand in US Domestic MarketWealth Effect: Post Recession Recovery
All-Transactions House Price IndexIndex 1980: Q1 = 100. Quarterly. Not Seasonally Adjusted
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
S&P 500 Index
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
- 36 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#6 Demand in US Domestic MarketWillingness to Spend: Depends if you have a job
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
perc
ent
USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: %
August 20174.4%
Dec 2018 Forecast
4.1%
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
-900
-720
-540
-360
-180
0
180
360
540
720
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NRA Restaurant Performance Index vs. Monthly Job Gains/Losses Rest.index
JobGains
monthly job gains/losses (L)
restaurant index (R)
37
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#6 Demand in US Domestic Market
Demand Drivers: Income
- 38 -
30,000
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 2005 '06 '07 '08 '09 2010 '11 '12 '13 '14 2015 '16 '17
Real Per Capita Disposable Income, US$Latest data is for: August 2017
recession
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#6 Demand in US Domestic MarketChange in Perceptions Impacts Demand
- 39 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#6 Demand in US Domestic MarketUSA Per Capita Meat Protein Consumption
- 40 -
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
PO
UN
DS P
ER P
ERSO
N P
ER Y
EA
R
TOTAL BEEF, PORK, POULTRY PER CAPITA DISAPPERANCE(Carcass Wt. Basis)
20
17
20
18
20
19
Forecast
265.3262.9
259.9
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#6 Demand in US Domestic MarketUSA Per Capita Beef Consumption
- 41 -
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
PO
UN
DS P
ER P
ERSO
N P
ER Y
EA
R
BEEF PER CAPITA DISAPPERANCE (Carcass wt. Basis)
20
17
20
18
20
19
Forecast
79.1 81.1
79.1
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#6 Demand in US Domestic MarketUSA Per Capita Lamb Consumption
- 42 -
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
PO
UN
DS P
ER P
ERSO
N P
ER Y
EA
R
LAMB, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (Carcass wt. Basis)
1.18 1.18 1.18
2017
2018
2019
Forecast
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#7 Demand in Other MarketsChina/Hong Kong Are Now the Top Beef Markets in the World
2017 China Imports:
+6.2%+79k MT
2018 China
Imports
+6.3%
+85k MT
- 43 -
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
TOP GLOBAL BEEF BUYERS. USDA. 000 METRIC TON. CWE000 mt
China/Hong Kong
USA
RUSSIA
JAPAN
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#7 Demand in Other MarketsChina Purchases So far in 2017 (product wt. basis)
- 44 -
China Imports of Fresh and Frozen Beef, YTD
Australia Uruguay BrazilNew
ZealandArgentina Other Total
2016 YTD Jan - Aug 77,725 99,801 121,515 54,237 33,829 13,101 400,208
2017 YTD Jan - Aug 75,565 133,593 125,446 61,101 48,532 11,495 455,732
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
me
tric
to
n
-3%
34%
13%43%
-12%
14%
Australia19%
Uruguay27%
Brazil30%
New Zealand
12%
Argentina9%
Other3.2%
3%
Brazil has now become largest supplier to China
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#7 Demand in Other MarketsHong Kong Purchases So far in 2017 (product wt. basis)
- 45 -
Fresh and Frozen, YTD
BrazilUnitedStates
Canada Australia Other Total
2016 YTD Jan - Aug 140,888 59,547 12,869 3,403 23,433 240,140
2017 YTD Jan - Aug 121,164 55,440 9,490 3,545 33,212 222,851
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
me
tric
to
n
-14%
-7%
-26% 4%
42%
-7%
Brazil54%
United States25%
Canada4%
Australia2%
Other15%
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Supplies ( Y/Y % change)
Production: +2.9% in 2017
+2.9% in 2018
+1.9% in 2019
Exports: +9.1% in 2017
+3.7% in 2018
+2.7% in 2019
Per Capita: -0.1% in 2017
+1.1% in 2018
+0.7% in 2019
#8 Competing ProteinsPork Situation and Outlook
- 46 -
ESNR9EP
23,34723,000
22,43622,785
23,253 23,187 22,843
24,501 24,941
25,656
26,398 26,905
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
PORK PRODUCTION: MILLION POUNDS
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#8 Competing ProteinsRatio of Beef Cutout vs. Pork Cutout
- 47 -
Wholesale Beef Prices Have Returned to More "Normal" Levels Relative to PorkRatio of Weekly Choice Beef Cutout vs. Pork Cutout Value
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#8 Competing ProteinsPrice Ratio of Ground Beef vs. Pork Chops
- 48 -
0.40
1.88
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Ratio
Ratio: 78CL Meat Block /1/4" Pork Loins, USDA Wt Avg
52wk Mo. Avg.
2009-10 Avg = 1.22
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#8 Competing ProteinsBroiler Situation and Outlook
1.88
4.719
6.831
0.669
14.099
36,511
35,131
36,52336,803 36,641
37,425
38,154
39,636
40,260
40,991
41,754
42,458
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MILLIO
N P
OU
ND
S
BROILER PRODUCTION: MILLION POUNDS
- 49 -
Forecast Source: Steiner Consulting Group
Supplies ( Y/Y % change)
Production: +1.8% in 2017
+1.9% in 2018
+1.7% in 2019
Exports: +4.8% in 2017
+5.3% in 2018
+2.3% in 2019
Per Capita: +0.2% in 2017
+0.2% in 2018
+0.6% in 2019
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#8 Competing ProteinsGround Beef vs. Chicken Breasts
- 50 -
Forecast Source: Steiner Consulting Group78CL Meat Block = 70% 90CL Boneless Beef, Central, Fresh, USDA, Wt. Avg. + 30% 50CL Beef Trim, Fresh, National, USDA, Wt. Avg.
Chicken Breast = USDA N.E. Broiler Breast Boneless, Skinless, Wt. Avg.
0.30
1.47
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.501
990
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Ratio
Ratio: 78CL Meat Block /Bnls Skinless Chicken Breast
52wk Mo. Avg.
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#9 USA Lamb Market SituationUS Lamb Inventories Remain Flat
- 51 -
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
US LAMB INVENTORYmil head
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#9 US Lamb Market SituationSlaughter Has Been Trending Lower For Much of 2017
- 52 -
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#9 US Lamb Market SituationLamb prices have settled back after spiking this past spring
- 53 -
SLAUGHTER LAMB PRICES, (CHOICE & PRIME 2-3)Source : USDA/AMS, Sioux Falls, SD
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017 2016 2015
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#9 USA Lamb Market SituationImports Have Captured Almost All of the Increase in US Lamb
Consumption in 2017
- 54 -
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Domestic Lamb Production + Importsmil lb.
US domestic production
Imports
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
#9 USA Lamb Market Situation
Lamb Trade Flows so Far in 2017
- 55 -
YTD Imports =
72,206 MT Jan-Aug, +19%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Australia NewZealand
Canada Chile Uruguay UnitedKingdom
Ireland Brazil Other
USA LAMB IMPORTS, USDA, MT, PRODUCT WEIGHT BASIS
311%102% -100% 5.2
9%
40%
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612- 56 -
CURRENT FORECAST
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Price Forecasts: 2017 and 2018
- 57 -
20-Oct Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
LIVE STEERS
FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER
5-YR AVERAGE 2012 - 2016 138.38 136.41 131.62 130.64 134.26
2016 HISTORY 134.56 127.87 114.12 106.22 120.69
2017 HISTORY 110.01 121.88 131.32 112.62
2017 FORECAST 113.33 119.79
% CHANGE FROM 2013 -9.4% 2.7% -1.3% 6.7% -0.7%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -11.9% -3.7% -14.4% -13.2% -10.8%
2018 FORECAST 120.00 117.00 113.67 115.33 116.50
% CHANGE FROM 2014 -1.5% -10.9% 0.9% 1.8% -2.7%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -13.3% -14.2% -13.6% -11.7% -13.2%
90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, WT. AVG., USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2012 - 2016 234.18 237.74 240.22 220.39 233.13
2016 HISTORY 209.59 217.86 211.68 192.46 207.89
2017 HISTORY 214.17 208.98 223.54 229.77
2017 FORECAST 214.33 219.16
% CHANGE FROM 2015 -0.3% 2.6% 8.5% 11.4% 5.4%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -10.8% -6.0% -4.4% -2.7% -6.0%
2018 FORECAST 224.67 225.33 225.33 216.00 222.83
% CHANGE FROM 2017 7.5% 0.8% -1.9% 0.8% 1.7%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -4.1% -5.2% -6.2% -2.0% -4.4%
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Price Forecasts: 2017 and 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, OMAHA BASIS, WT.AVE, USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2012 - 2016 92.10 88.70 81.25 73.14 83.80
2016 HISTORY 70.03 69.34 61.48 40.04 60.22
2017 HISTORY 60.24 78.14 138.04 68.86
2017 FORECAST 57.00 85.51
% CHANGE FROM 2015 11.6% 99.1% 12.0% 42.4% 42.0%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -15.2% 55.6% -15.3% -22.1% 2.0%
2018 FORECAST 80.33 78.67 76.00 69.00 76.00
% CHANGE FROM 2017 2.8% -43.0% 10.4% 21.1% -11.1%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -12.8% -11.3% -6.5% -5.7% -9.3%
7:45, E. COAST 90CL AUSTRALIAN BLENDED COW, TOP, YELLOW SHEET
5-YR AVERAGE 2012 - 2016 217.26 213.54 226.37 222.93 220.02
2016 HISTORY 200.70 206.03 210.82 207.86 206.35
2017 HISTORY 214.00 213.44 226.38 220.99
2017 FORECAST 218.00 219.70
% CHANGE FROM 2015 6.3% 9.9% 4.8% 4.9% 6.5%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -1.8% 6.0% -2.4% -2.2% -0.1%
2018 FORECAST 225.00 222.33 226.33 221.33 223.75
% CHANGE FROM 2017 5.4% -1.8% 2.4% 1.5% 1.8%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. 3.6% 4.1% 0.0% -0.7% 1.7%
- 58 -
Spread vs. domestic
-13.11
-1.54
-0.55
+0.9
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Price Forecasts: 2017 and 2018
- 59 -
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
NATIONAL WHOLE BIRD PRICE, USDA, WTD AVG
5-YR AVERAGE 2012 - 2016 94.09 101.11 89.31 88.63 93.28
2016 HISTORY 84.64 93.07 81.61 78.05 84.34
2017 HISTORY 84.21 88.41 104.66 95.09
2017 FORECAST 87.00 93.79
% CHANGE FROM 2015 4.5% 12.4% 16.5% 11.5% 11.2%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -6.0% 3.5% 6.5% -1.8% 0.5%
2018 FORECAST 91.67 102.33 93.67 88.00 93.92
% CHANGE FROM 2017 3.7% -2.2% -1.5% 1.1% 0.1%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -2.6% 1.2% 4.9% -0.7% 0.7%
N.E. BROILER BREAST BONELESS-SKINLESS, WT.AVG., USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2012 - 2016 130.66 156.63 154.44 123.39 141.28
2016 HISTORY 108.61 119.69 134.46 104.14 116.73
2017 HISTORY 114.22 107.10 148.96 145.36
2017 FORECAST 110.67 128.02
% CHANGE FROM 2015 -1.4% 24.5% 8.1% 6.3% 9.7%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -18.0% -4.9% -5.9% -10.3% -9.4%
2018 FORECAST 120.33 149.33 152.33 115.33 134.33
% CHANGE FROM 2017 12.4% 0.2% 4.8% 4.2% 4.9%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -7.9% -4.7% -1.4% -6.5% -4.9%
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Price Forecasts: 2017 and 2018
- 60 -
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
USDA, Pork Carcass Cutout, FOB Plant
5-YR AVERAGE 2012 - 2016 83.69 91.76 94.02 85.34 88.70
2016 HISTORY 75.29 83.49 81.21 74.86 78.71
2017 HISTORY 75.50 81.49 85.15 91.02
2017 FORECAST 72.00 82.42
% CHANGE FROM 2015 8.2% 2.0% 12.1% -3.8% 4.7%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -2.6% -7.2% -3.2% -15.6% -7.1%
2018 FORECAST 75.33 81.67 84.00 76.67 79.42
% CHANGE FROM 2017 -7.6% -4.1% -7.7% 6.5% -3.6%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -10.0% -11.0% -10.7% -10.2% -10.5%
IA/MN, Base Market Hog 185 lb Carcass Basis, Plant Dlv., WT. AVG,
5-YR AVERAGE 2012 - 2016 76.92 87.38 85.46 70.88 80.16
2016 HISTORY 60.19 72.96 63.76 46.85 60.94
2017 HISTORY 65.21 66.23 69.41 71.22
2017 FORECAST 53.33 65.05
% CHANGE FROM 2013 10.0% -4.9% 11.7% 13.8% 6.7%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -13.9% -20.6% -16.7% -24.8% -18.9%
2018 FORECAST 64.00 75.67 72.67 60.33 68.17
% CHANGE FROM 2014 -3.4% 9.0% 2.0% 13.1% 4.8%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -16.8% -13.4% -15.0% -14.9% -15.0%
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Price Forecasts: 2017 and 2018
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
TOM TURKEYS, EAST, FROZEN 16-22LBS, TOP,
5-YR AVERAGE 2012 - 2016 106.95 111.62 117.45 119.50 113.88
2016 HISTORY 119.20 122.92 126.48 123.03 122.91
2017 HISTORY 107.00 106.33 107.00 107.00
2017 FORECAST 108.33 107.17
% CHANGE FROM 2015 -10.8% -12.9% -15.4% -11.9% -12.8%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -0.6% -4.1% -8.9% -9.3% -5.9%
2018 FORECAST 104.67 110.67 116.33 118.33 112.50
% CHANGE FROM 2017 -1.6% 3.4% 8.7% 9.2% 5.0%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -2.1% -0.9% -1.0% -1.0% -1.2%
UB BONELESS-SKINLESS TURKEY BREAST, TOM, FRESH, TOP,
5-YR AVERAGE 2012 - 2016 268.61 261.07 313.33 319.54 290.64
2016 HISTORY 410.92 230.42 215.00 194.73 262.77
2017 HISTORY 155.00 160.08 153.17 153.00
2017 FORECAST 157.67 155.98
% CHANGE FROM 2015 -61.0% -33.5% -28.8% -19.0% -40.6%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -40.4% -41.3% -51.2% -50.7% -46.3%
2018 FORECAST 155.33 180.00 227.00 231.33 198.42
% CHANGE FROM 2017 -3.0% 17.5% 48.4% 46.7% 27.2%
% CHANGE FROM 5-Yr Avg. -42.2% -31.1% -27.6% -27.6% -31.7%
2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Live Cattle Prices
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00
170.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
FIVE AREA DIRECT AVERAGE LIVE STEER
5-YR AVERAGE 2011 - 2015 2015 HISTORY 2016 HISTORY 2016 FORECAST 2017 FORECAST
US$/CWT
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2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US Domestic 90CL Boneless Beef Prices
70.00
120.00
170.00
220.00
270.00
320.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
90% BONELESS BEEF, CENTRAL, FRESH, WT. AVG., USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2011 - 2015 2015 HISTORY 2016 HISTORY 2016 FORECAST 2017 FORECAST
US$/CWT
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2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
US Domestic 50CL Beef Trim
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, OMAHA BASIS, WT.AVE, USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2011 - 2015 2015 HISTORY 2016 HISTORY 2016 FORECAST 2017 FORECAST
US$/CWT
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2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Imported 90CL Australian Beef
150.00
170.00
190.00
210.00
230.00
250.00
270.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
7:45, E. COAST 90CL AUSTRALIAN BLENDED COW, TOP, YELLOW SHEET
5-YR AVERAGE 2011 - 2015 2015 HISTORY 2016 HISTORY 2016 FORECAST 2017 FORECAST
US$/CWT
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2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Spread, Domestic - Imported
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
DOMESTIC 90CL FRESH, FOB CENTRAL US MINUS 90CL IMPORTED, FROZEN, FOB US EAST COAST
5-YR AVERAGE 2011 - 2015 2015 HISTORY 2016 HISTORY 2016 FORECAST 2017 FORECAST
US$/CWT
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2018 Meat Market Outlook Presented by: Steiner Consulting Group | (800) 526-4612
Whole Broiler Prices
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00
170.00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
N.E. BROILER BREAST BONELESS-SKINLESS, WT.AVG., USDA
5-YR AVERAGE 2011 - 2015 2015 HISTORY 2016 HISTORY 2016 FORECAST 2017 FORECAST
US$/CWT
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