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  • Weekly Wrap: Rebound supports a cautiously optimistic near-term outlook

    Matthew Smith, CFA

    Head of Research

    +84 28 3622 6868

    matthew.smith@yuanta.com.vn

    The VNI posted a solid 5.4% increase last week, handily outperforming the region

    after the prior week’s selloff. The mainboard is now just 1.8% below its close of June

    23, before the secondary COVID-19 outbreak became public knowledge on June 24.

    The pandemic remains a key concern (total cases were 841 as of Monday morning)

    and near term volatility is likely to persist, but the market’s resilience supports our

    argument that the index is not likely to retest its March lows.

    Index, Flows, and FX Performance

     VNINDEX: 841 (+5.4% WoW / -12.4% YTD / -12.9% YoY)

     HNINDEX: 113 (+4.9% WoW / +10.0% YTD / +10.7% YoY)

     UPCOM Index: 56.2 (+2.6% WoW / -0.6% YTD / -3.4% YoY)

     Average daily turnover: US$237mn (-3% WoW)

     Foreigners net sold US$8.0mn of 3-index constituents.

     VND:USD rate: 23,177 (-4bp WoW / -2bp YTD / +17bp YoY)

    VN30 Components

    Ticker Closing price

    (VND K) WoW

    chg Cont to VN30

    (WoW) TTM PE

    (x)

    BID 38.1 4.0% 1% 18

    CTG 22.8 7.3% 4% 8

    EIB 16.9 2.1% 1% 30

    FPT 47.1 5.8% 5% 11

    GAS 70.2 7.2% 1% 14

    HDB 26.1 8.8% 4% 6

    HPG 24.2 11.5% 16% 9

    KDH 24.6 7.4% 2% 12

    MBB 16.3 3.5% 2% 5

    MSN 54.1 7.1% 5% 17

    MWG 78.6 5.5% 4% 9

    NVL 64.6 -0.8% 0% 16

    PLX 44.6 5.7% 1% 101

    PNJ 55.2 7.0% 2% 12

    POW 9.4 2.7% 0% 10

    REE 34.6 6.6% 1% 7

    ROS 2.3 9.6% 0% --

    SAB 184.0 9.5% 4% 29

    SBT 14.2 7.2% 1% 25

    SSI 14.3 5.2% 1% 8

    STB 10.5 3.5% 2% 8

    TCB 19.2 5.5% 7% 6

    TCH 20.4 3.3% 0% 9

    VCB 82.9 8.5% 8% 17

    VHM 79.6 2.4% 2% 12

    VIC 87.5 0.0% 0% 39

    VJC 100.3 6.1% 5% 29

    VNM 115.5 7.9% 14% 21

    VPB 21.3 5.2% 5% 5

    VRE 26.4 5.2% 2% 25

    Source: Bloomberg, Yuanta Vietnam. Pricing date: August 7, 2020.

    The VN30 saw strong breadth with 29 gainers led by HPG (+12%

    WoW), VNM (+8%), and VCB (+9%). New VN30 components KDH

    (+7%, and one of our top picks) and TCH (+3%) also had a solid week.

    Margin leverage remains elevated but not alarmingly so. Total

    margin loans represented 4.2% of the free float market cap of HOSE

    & HNX as at 1Q20. But this ratio fell -50bps from the record high 4.7%

    of 1Q20 despite a 12% QoQ increase in margin loans to US$2.3bn.

    Source: FiinPro, Bloomberg, Yuanta Vietnam

    Macro updates. The SBV announced a slowdown in credit growth in July after a relatively strong sequential growth in June. Overall credit expanded by 3.45% in 7M20, less than half the 7.13% growth rate of

    7M19. By contrast, Nielsen announced that Vietnam’s consumer confidence index was second highest in the world at 117 in 2Q20.

    Market outlook. Last week’s solid performance supports our view

    that the secondary COVID outbreak would not lead to a test of the

    panic-driven March lows given that 1) the March trough was part of a

    synchronized global panic, which is not the case today, 2)

    containment efforts would follow the same playbook that succeeded

    in the two prior phases of the pandemic, and 3) foreign bottom fishing,

    or at least dip-buying, would stem the riptide of local investor

    sentiment. We reiterate our call to focus on quality businesses, and

    our top picks remain VHM, KDH, MBB, and HCM.

    August 10, 2020

    mailto:matthew.smith@yuanta.com.vn

  • Page 2

    Vietnam Weekly Market Roundup

    Source: Bloomberg

    Yuanta Vietnam Coverage Universe

    Sector Company

    Stock

    code

    Market

    cap

    (USDm)

    3-month

    ADT

    (USDm) Yuanta Rating

    Current

    price

    (VND)

    Target

    price

    (VND)

    Up (down)

    side

    2020E

    Dividend

    yield

    12-m

    TSR*

    Banks BIDV BID VN 6,612 2.1 SELL 38,100 37,300 -2% 0.0% -2%

    HD Bank HDB VN 1,086 1.1 HOLD-Underperform 26,050 30,970 19% 0.0% 19%

    MB Bank MBB VN 1,696 4.2 BUY 16,300 25,900 59% 0.0% 59%

    Sacombank STB VN 813 6.0 BUY 10,450 12,950 24% 0.0% 24%

    Vietcombank VCB VN 13,266 3.5 HOLD-Underperform 82,900 75,140 -9% 0.0% -9%

    Vietnam Prosperity BankVPB VN 2,235 4.4 HOLD-Underperform 21,250 22,500 6% 0.0% 6%

    Brokers HCM City SecuritiesHCM VN 226 1.9 BUY 17,150 26,532 55% 7.7% 62%

    Saigon Securities SSI VN 369 3.5 HOLD-Outperform 14,250 18,328 29% 4.3% 33%

    Viet Capital SecuritiesVCI VN 152 0.8 HOLD-Underperform 21,400 26,449 24% 3.9% 27%

    VNDirect SecuritiesVND VN 103 0.4 HOLD-Underperform 11,450 13,150 15% 6.1% 21%

    Energy PV POW POW VN 950 2.0 BUY 9,400 17,457 86% 3.2% 89%

    PV NT2 NT2 VN 271 0.3 BUY 21,850 25,181 15% 9.2% 24%

    PCC1 PC1 VN 120 0.4 BUY 17,500 24,092 38% 0.0% 38%

    Consumer Masan Group MSN VN 2,729 3.6 HOLD-Outperform 54,100 84,908 57% 0.0% 57%

    Phu Nhuan Jewelry PNJ VN 536 1.9 HOLD-Outperform 55,200 86,200 56% 3.6% 60%

    Digiworld DGW VN 79 0.9 HOLD-Outperform 42,600 31,574 -26% 3.4% -22%

    Oil & GAS PV Drilling PVD VN 184 2.2 HOLD-Outperform 10,100 10,429 3% 0.0% 3%

    Property Nam Long NLG VN 279 1.2 BUY 25,850 36,400 41% 1.9% 43%

    Novaland NVL VN 2,702 2.9 HOLD-Outperform 64,600 65,073 1% 0.0% 1%

    Khang Dien KDH VN 556 0.7 BUY 24,550 31,081 27% 2.0% 29%

    Vinhomes VHM VN 11,298 7.6 BUY 79,600 94,862 19% 0.0% 19%

    Transport Airports Corp VietnamACV VN 5,053 0.8 HOLD-Underperform 53,800 76,400 42% 0.9% 43%

    *Note: TSR = Total shareholder return over the next 12 months inclusive of expected share price change and dividends.

    Stock ratings and pricing data is as of close on August 7, 2020.

    Source: Bloomberg, Yuanta Vietnam

  • Page 3

    Vietnam Weekly Market Roundup

    Source: Bloomberg

  • Page 4

    Vietnam Weekly Market Roundup

    Regional currencies: VND remained stable (-4bp Wow) vs a bouncing USD (+29bp WoW)

    Precious metals in VND terms: Silver has been

    playing an impressive game of catch-up

    Gold bid-ask spreads at state-owned SJC remain

    elevated, at 3.0%

    Source: Bloomberg, Yuanta Vietnam. This data represents XAUVND and

    XAGVND and is not an on-the-ground price.

    Source: FiinPro, Yuanta Vietnam

  • Page 5

    Vietnam Weekly Market Roundup

    Margin leverage remains elevated, but not alarmingly so as of 2Q20. Retail investors drive this market, and we

    believe that the ratio of margin loans to market capitalization is a solid indicator of retail investor ebullience, or lack

    thereof. Given that price is set by incremental transactions, we think it makes sense to exclude shares that do not trade

    (e.g., major government or insider holdings) to monitor the potential stock market overhang. This is especially critical

    for markets that have a substantial preponderance of stocks with low free floats, and Vietnam is such a market.

    As such, total margin loans grew by 12% to reach US$2.3bn in 1Q20, representing 1.7% of total market cap but 4.2%

    of the free float market cap of the HOSE & HNX as at 1Q20. This is relatively high vs history, but the ratio fell -50bps

    from the record high 4.7% at 1Q20. The ratio fell despite a 12% QoQ increase in margin loans to US$2.3bn because

    market cap raced higher more quickly than margin loans increased.

    Margin leverage ratio remains elevated after

    hitting a record high at end-March…

    …Margin loans expanded by 12% QoQ in 2Q20,

    but are flat YoY and remain below the 4Q19 level

    Source: FiinPro, Bloomberg, Yuanta Vietnam

    Source: FiinPro, Bloomberg, Yuanta Vietnam

    Vietnam’s consumer confidence index is the second highest in the world. The macro headwinds are strong and the

    Labor Ministry’s frank disclosure of employment difficulties confronting millions of Vietnamese highlight the challenges

    for growth. But despite the worst quarterly economic expansion figure since 1987, consumer confidence in Vietnam

    remains among the highest in the world. According to market research firm Nielsen, Vietnam’s consumer confidence

    index was second only to India in the world at 117 in 2Q20.

    Crucially, the 117 index level of 2Q20 was 9 percentage points below that of 1Q20, with the decline attributable

    (needless to say) to Covid 19. However, this is still well above the 100-point neutral line, and it’s also far higher than the

    global mean, which remains mired in negativity at 92 points. In t