FISHER FUNDS’ QUARTERLY 31 MARCH 2013 PORTFOLIO REVIEW MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK … · 2016. 10....

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FISHER FUNDS’ QUARTERLY PORTFOLIO REVIEW MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK Marlin’s adjusted NAV* was up 5.0% during the quarter despite headwinds from a continuing strong New Zealand dollar which appreciated 10% against the yen, 4% against the euro and 1% against the US dollar. Global equity markets continued to rally in the quarter despite the recent turmoil in Europe and a global growth environment that remains well below trend. It seems for now, that as we move further from the GFC, the protracted process of household balance sheet repair continues in developed markets and concern about a catastrophic financial event such as the break-up of the European Union recedes (recent events in Europe notwithstanding). As a consequence, the investment community seems willing to focus on some of the more positive aspects of the global economy – low levels of interest rates, an improving growth outlook (albeit one that is still below trend levels), low inflation and a generally healthy corporate sector. The upshot of this is that equity risk premiums decline and investors are willing to pay more for corporate earnings. To date, the rise in global share markets is not matched by improving earnings expectations. We remain cautiously optimistic about the global equity outlook for this year and believe that flows out of fixed income into equities can continue to support the rally. Even so, the market’s newfound confidence can still be tested if the nascent economic improvements start to fade, geopolitical risks escalate or earnings delivery disappoints. In this respect we continue to closely monitor developments in Europe, the resilience of the US economy and the success of the more expansionary policies in Japan together with rising geopolitical concerns on the Korean peninsula. Equally, at a corporate level, with stock correlations declining we are particularly sensitive to earnings delivery and outlook. PORTFOLIO REVIEW Over the quarter, all sectors within the portfolio made a positive contribution to the overall return to varying degrees. Within consumer discretionary, positive returns in the auto components companies Brembo and Nokian, were partially offset by weakness in car manufacturer Volkswagen which meant that consumer discretionary stocks only made a small positive contribution. Healthcare stocks performed well apart from Orthofix and Stratec Biomedical who struggled due to near term growth concerns. In the industrial sector, the notable performer was Sarin Technologies while China Automation Group having appreciated strongly in the second half of 2012 reacted negatively to a restructuring of the Chinese Ministry of Railways. Overall industrial stocks made a strong contribution to portfolio returns. Stocks PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY AS AT 31 MARCH 2013 Company % Holding Brazil Valid 3.2% China China Automation Group 1.8% Fook Woo 0.0% O2 Micro 2.4% Ports Design 1.9% Travelsky 1.5% Wasion Group 4.8% Finland Nokian Tyres 1.5% France Gameloft 1.7% Zodiac 2.9% Germany Biotest 5.5% PSI 0.8% Qiagen 1.6% Stratec Biomedical 3.8% Tom Tailor 3.7% United Internet 2.1% Volkswagen 1.6% Wirecard 4.4% Ireland Icon 2.0% Israel Sarin Technologies 5.8% Italy Brembo 2.9% Japan Asahi 0.9% Horiba 3.0% Park 24 2.3% Prestige International 1.8% Mexico Genomma 2.8% Singapore Hyflux 2.1% Switzerland Acino 1.0% United Kingdom De La Rue 1.0% IMI 2.2% United States Autodesk 2.8% Dolby 2.0% Equinix 1.7% Hanger Orthopedic Group 3.5% Orthofix 3.7% UFP Technologies 3.0% Equity Total 89.7% Total foreign cash 6.2% New Zealand dollar cash 4.1% Cash Total 10.3% TOTAL 100.0% TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN AT A GLANCE NAV $0.85 SHARE PRICE $0.71 DISCOUNT 16.9% UPDATE 31 MARCH 2013 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.025 $0.020 $0.015 $0.010 $0.005 $0 Oct 06 May 07 Dec 07 Jul 08 Feb 09 Sep 09 Apr 10 Nov 10 Jun 11 Jan 12 Aug 12 Mar 13 marlin global limited UPDATE 31 MARCH 2013 1 Return Dividends per share * Adjusted NAV and Total Shareholder Return assume all dividends are reinvested, but exclude imputation credits. NB: NAV and Adjusted NAV are net of fees and tax. PERFORMANCE Three Since Months Inception (accumulated) Marlin Adjusted NAV * +5.0% +11.8% Relative Performance MSCI Global Small Cap Gross Index (in NZ dollar terms) +9.3% +4.6% Total Shareholder Return * +8.5% -4.5% Total Shareholder Return* Share Price Dividends

Transcript of FISHER FUNDS’ QUARTERLY 31 MARCH 2013 PORTFOLIO REVIEW MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK … · 2016. 10....

Page 1: FISHER FUNDS’ QUARTERLY 31 MARCH 2013 PORTFOLIO REVIEW MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK … · 2016. 10. 5. · MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK ... We remain cautiously optimistic about the

F I S H E R F U N D S ’ Q U A R T E R LY P O R T F O L I O R E V I E WM A R K E T R E V I E W A N D O U T L O O K

Marlin’s adjusted NAV* was up 5.0% during the quarter despite headwinds from a continuing strong New Zealand dollar which appreciated 10% against the yen, 4% against the euro and 1% against the US dollar. Global equity markets continued to rally in the quarter despite the recent turmoil in Europe and a global growth environment that remains well below trend. It seems for now, that as we move further from the GFC, the protracted process of household balance sheet repair continues in developed markets and concern about a catastrophic financial event such as the break-up of the European Union recedes (recent events in Europe notwithstanding). As a consequence, the investment community seems willing to focus on some of the more positive aspects of the global economy – low levels of interest rates, an improving growth outlook (albeit one that is still below trend levels), low inflation and a generally healthy corporate sector. The upshot of this is that equity risk premiums decline and investors are willing to pay more for corporate earnings. To date, the rise in global share markets is not matched by improving earnings expectations. We remain cautiously optimistic about the global equity outlook for this year and believe that flows out of fixed income into equities can continue to support the rally. Even so, the market’s newfound confidence can still be tested if the nascent economic improvements start to fade, geopolitical risks escalate or earnings delivery disappoints. In this respect we continue to closely monitor developments in Europe, the resilience of the US economy and the success of the more expansionary policies in Japan together with rising geopolitical concerns on the Korean peninsula. Equally, at a corporate level, with stock correlations declining we are particularly sensitive to earnings delivery and outlook.

P O R T F O L I O R E V I E WOver the quarter, all sectors within the portfolio made a positive contribution to the overall return to varying degrees. Within consumer discretionary, positive returns in the auto components companies Brembo and Nokian, were partially offset by weakness in car manufacturer Volkswagen which meant that consumer discretionary stocks only made a small positive contribution. Healthcare stocks performed well apart from Orthofix and Stratec Biomedical who struggled due to near term growth concerns. In the industrial sector, the notable performer was Sarin Technologies while China Automation Group having appreciated strongly in the second half of 2012 reacted negatively to a restructuring of the Chinese Ministry of Railways. Overall industrial stocks made a strong contribution to portfolio returns. Stocks

P O R T F O L I O H O L D I N g S S U M M A R Y A S A T 3 1 M A R C H 2 0 1 3Company % HoldingBrazil Valid 3.2%China China Automation Group 1.8%Fook Woo 0.0%O2 Micro 2.4%Ports Design 1.9%Travelsky 1.5%Wasion Group 4.8%Finland Nokian Tyres 1.5%France Gameloft 1.7%Zodiac 2.9%Germany Biotest 5.5%PSI 0.8%Qiagen 1.6%Stratec Biomedical 3.8%Tom Tailor 3.7%United Internet 2.1%Volkswagen 1.6%Wirecard 4.4%Ireland Icon 2.0%Israel Sarin Technologies 5.8%Italy Brembo 2.9%Japan Asahi 0.9%Horiba 3.0%Park 24 2.3%Prestige International 1.8%Mexico Genomma 2.8%Singapore Hyflux 2.1%Switzerland Acino 1.0%United Kingdom De La Rue 1.0%IMI 2.2%United States Autodesk 2.8%Dolby 2.0%Equinix 1.7%Hanger Orthopedic Group 3.5%Orthofix 3.7%UFP Technologies 3.0%Equity Total 89.7%Total foreign cash 6.2%New Zealand dollar cash 4.1%Cash Total 10.3%TOTAL 100.0%

T O T A L S H A R E H O L D E R R E T U R N

A T A g L A N C ENAV $0.85

SHARE PRICE $0.71

DISCOUNT 16.9%

UPDATE3 1 M A R C H 2 0 1 3

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Marlin Adjusted NAV* +5.0% +11.8%

Relative Performance MSCI Global Small Cap Gross Index (in NZ dollar terms) +9.3% +4.6%

Total Shareholder Return* +8.5% -4.5%

Total Shareholder Return* Share PriceDividends

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within the technology sector were consistently strong performers in the first quarter of 2013 and similarly made a strong positive contribution.

Sarin Technologies was the standout performer during the quarter rising 36.7% in NZ dollar terms on the back of decent quarterly results that indicated a significantly better operating environment for the diamond manufacturers and consequently improving demand for Sarin’s products. Further, recurring revenue continues to rise as a percentage of total revenue thus allowing more earnings visibility and improving margins. The company has also been more active in promoting the virtues and prospects of two new products which should start to generate revenues this year.

Biotest, which has similarly been a strong performer for Marlin, reported solid numbers during the quarter and reiterated a continuing positive outlook supported by strong Bivigam sales to the US over the next two years and continuing growth of Albumin sales in China.

Qiagen also reported a strong set of fourth quarter earnings numbers largely due to solid growth in instrument sales. We met with the company in February and believe that Qiagen is now past the peak in their investment programme and is well positioned to benefit from the investments they have made to develop best in class diagnostics systems. It is now all down to executing a strategy that will have their diagnostics systems operating in hospitals and testing laboratories.

In China, Wasion has been a strong performer for the portfolio. Our meeting with management in January highlighted a strong top line story underpinned by China’s aim to increase household penetration of smart meter readers from 35% to 80% by 2015. Further, the pricing environment is expected to improve and better reflect the levels of research and development that go into the meter readers. This will particularly help Wasion who spends more on technology than any of its competitors.

There have been parts of the portfolio that have encountered difficulties over the quarter. Volkswagen released results that were broadly in line with consensus and indicated performance clearly superior to the industry. However, they continued their very cautious guidance on the outlook for the industry and for largely flat operating earnings in 2013 which caused the share price to underperform. The environment hasn’t been helped by recent yen weakness which improves the overall competitiveness of Japanese car manufacturers. However, we continue to believe that at the operating level Volkswagen will continue to outperform its peers due to a ramp up of new models which continue to earn global accolades by critics, continued cost efficiencies and their exposure to the well supported luxury car market.

China Automation Group also had a difficult quarter largely due to the uncertainty created by the reform of the Ministry of Railways, which is now effectively split into two entities - the China Railway Corporation which undertakes the corporate and commercial functions and the State Railway Administration which handles the regulatory side. Confusion also exists over trade receivables, now largely provisioned for, but a significant amount still lies with the soon to be extinct Ministry of Railways. We maintain our view that the People’s Republic of China is committed to high speed railway expansion and China Automation stand to be a significant beneficiary. Further, we expect that the pipeline of opportunities will continue to grow as the company expands its focus to metro and subways expansion as the state prioritises urban mass transit.

DISCLAIMER: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. The newsletter is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. To the extent that the newsletter contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can and will vary and that future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved.

C O M P A N Y N E W SDIVIDEND PAID 28 MARCH 2013A dividend of 1.64 cents per share was paid to Marlin shareholders on 28 March 2013 under the quarterly dividend policy. The next dividend payment is scheduled for June 2013. Interest in Marlin’s dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) remains high with 40% of shares participating in the plan. Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount to market price. If you would like to participate in the DRP, please contact our share registrar, Computershare on 09 488 8777.

MONTHLY UPDATEEach month we produce a summary of what has occurred over the month, including significant market news and developments to Marlin’s portfolio. If you would like to subscribe to our monthly update please email [email protected].

The Marlin quarterly update newsletter is produced for the March and September quarters only. The annual and interim reports cover the June and December periods. If you would like to receive future newsletters electronically please email us at [email protected]

Marlin Global Limited. PO Box 33 549, Takapuna, Auckland 0740 Phone +64 9 484 0365 Fax +64 9 489 7139 Email: [email protected] www.marlin.co.nz

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N E W P O R T F O L I O H O L D I N gDuring the quarter we initiated a position in Acino, a Swiss generics and speciality pharmaceuticals company. The company has strong revenue growth prospects emanating from an expanding product range together with a strong distribution capability spanning four continents and is largely exposed to fast growing emerging markets. Acino operates in the hard to manufacture drugs space and have developed advanced technologies in both delivery methods (slow release oral dispersibles, transdermal applications, i.e. patches and biodegradable implants) and also high levels of drug delivery efficacy. They have a strong development pipeline of drugs that will continue to support their growth prospects. In our view, Acino’s strong growth prospects are not currently reflected in the share’s valuation and if the company delivers anywhere close to guidance then it should rerate significantly.

Carmel Fisher Roger GarrettManaging Director Senior Portfolio Manager Fisher Funds Management Ltd Fisher Funds Management Ltd 17 April 2013 17 April 2013

N O TA B L E S H A R E P R I C E M O V E M E N T S I N T H E Q U A R T E R (from Bloomberg, in NZ dollars)

+37% +23% +22% +21% -21%

43.00%18.00%16.00%9.00%7.00%7.00%

MARKET UPDATEGlobal equity markets continued their four month rally into March

following a late February pause over concerns about growing

resistance to the austerity measures in Europe which manifested

itself in a political impasse in Italy. While the Italian situation is not

yet resolved, the European equity market’s subsequent rally through

to mid-March suggested investor expectations are that a coalition

will form and Italy will comply with austerity targets. Europe may be

a lot of things but it is not dull; a month after the Italian elections a

small Mediterranean island and offshore tax haven with a population

less than that of Auckland again raised the spectre of the possible

Euro exit of one of its members. The Cypriot banking crisis raised a

number of issues not least the dysfunctional nature of the European

policy maker’s ill considered response and the confusion created

over its poor implementation. Elsewhere in the world, the US economy continued to outperform

expectations, helped by a continuing strong housing market,

gradual improvements in employment growth and continuing

accommodative monetary policy. The impacts of fiscal tightening

are really only now starting to bite and at some stage this should

be reflected in consumer spending behaviour. In Japan, the

expansionary monetary and fiscal policies are having a positive

influence on business confidence indices. The weakness in the yen

will help corporate profitability and this will be reflected in worker

wage packets through increased payments of variable wages. In

China, we have seen more volatility in macro figures, largely due

to Chinese New Year. Domestic demand continues to be steady,

helped by relatively strong growth in wages, credit growth remains

strong and for now monetary policy is fairly accommodative.

Perhaps one key risk for China is a lift in inflation arising from food

price hikes and a narrowing output gap, and the negative impact

that will have on the cost of capital.

SEcToR SPl iT as at 31/03/13

GEoGRAPHicAl SPl iT as at 31/03/13

32% Industrials 26% Health Care 22% Information Technology 11% Consumer Discretionary 9% Other

43% Europe 18% US 16% Asia 9% Japan 7% Latin America 7% Other

PERfoRMAncE to 31/03/13

Since

1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Years Inception

MLN Adjusted NAV* -0.9% +5.0% +8.1% +0.2% -6.5% +11.8%

Relative Performance

MSCI Global Small Cap Gross Index (in NZ dollar terms) +2.0% +9.3% +13.4% +11.8% +17.5% +4.6%

Total Shareholder Return* +2.4% +8.5% +8.1% -0.5% -2.0% -4.5%

* Assumes all dividends are reinvested, but excludes imputation credits.

** Accumulated performance since inception.

AT A GlAncE as at 31/03/13

MLN NAV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$0.85

Share Price . . . . . . . . . . . .$0.71

Discount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17%

MARcH’S B iGGEST MovERS

EnergyIndu

32.00%health Care26.00%Techology22.00%Consumer11.00%Other9.00%

Energy  

Indu  

health  Care  Techology  Consumer  Other  

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+14% Brembo +13% Prestige International +11% Autodesk -12% Stratec Biomedical -17% China Automation Group

PoRTfol io UPDATEMarch saw a number of companies report fourth quarter 2012, annual

results and guidance for the upcoming year. IMI reported results slightly ahead of expectations and provided

reasonable growth guidance. In particular it was pleasing to see

a recovery in severe services, especially in the top line but also an

improvement in margins which should continue into this year as

lower margin projects roll off. During the month there were two key

developments that enthused us about IMI – firstly the low growth

merchandising division is likely to be sold and secondly they announced

a £175m buy back which adds confidence to the value proposition.

PSI reported numbers at the low end of their guidance range. The

energy management division continues to perform below expectations

with flat revenue growth and falling margins but this is due to an inertia

of contracts post Fukishima and recent contract wins in Germany

should herald an improving performance. Cash flow has picked up

strongly and 2013 guidance remains close to consensus.

Volkswagen released results in February that were broadly in line with

consensus and superior to their peers but continued to guide cautiously

for flat operating earnings for 2013. The share price responded

accordingly falling over 10% as a result. We continue to believe that at

an operational level Volkswagen will outperform its peer group due to

their ramp up of new models, continued cost efficiencies and their high

exposure to the reasonably buoyant luxury car market. Tom Tailor reported strong like for like sales growth of 15% in the

fourth quarter of 2012 demonstrating resilience in the face of a weak

demand environment. The brand opened 32 stores in the fourth quarter

which pressured the new store productivity measure but will provide

stronger productivity growth optionality over FY2013. E-commerce

continued to grow very strongly (+43%) and contributed just under

a third of the same store growth. The strong improvement in gross

margin from 49% to 57% was very pleasing and is largely due to the

P O R T F O L I O R E V I E W C O N T I N U E D