Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?

8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?

1/23

Brennan Center for Justiceat New York University School of Law

Inimai Chettiar, Director, Justice Program

Dr. Oliver Roeder, Economics Fellow, Justice Program

Lauren-Brooke Eisen, Counsel, Justice Program

What Caused The Crime Decline?

How these findings apply to work in your state


2/23

Did Mass Incarceration Cause the

Crime Drop?

• Since 1990 incarceration rate nearly doubled.

• And crime rate was cut in half.

• Did incarceration cause the crime drop? If not, what

did?


3/23

Quantifying Crime & Incarceration


4/23

Report Methodology

• Examined 14 popular theories for crime decline

• 20 months of research

• An interdisciplinary team: criminal justice

attorneys, economist, economics researchers• Comprehensive data sets from 50 states and 50

biggest cities

•

Used a statistical regression model• Informed by large body of economics,

criminology, and law.


5/23

Our Findings Quantified


6/23

Our Findings

• The growth in incarceration played a limited role in thecrime drop.

– Increases in incarceration were responsible for roughly 5% ofthe crime decline.

– They had essentially zero effect in the 2000s.

• Other factors also played a role:

– Introduction of CompStat (a policing technique): 10% reductionin crime

– Higher income: 7.5% of crime decline

–

Decreased alcohol consumption: 7.5% of crime decline – Increased police numbers: 2.5% of crime decline

– Aging population: 2.5% of crime decline

– Lower unemployment: 1.5% of crime decline


7/23

The Effect of Mass Incarceration on

Crime


8/23

How Could Incarceration Have Had

Such a Low Effect?

• Diminishing returns: “The more we use, the less it works.”

• At astronomical levels, additional incarceration is not effective.


9/23

Why are there Diminishing Returns to

Incarceration?• Offenders are less dangerous/habitual on average

– Too many low-level offenders

– Each additional prisoner becomes less dangerous/habitualon average

• Prison may be “criminogenic” – “Prison-as-school”

– Stigma effect

• Incarcerating the first million people is more effective

than incarcerating the second million.

Our regression model captures these diminishingreturns. So we see a lower effect.


10/23

The Inefficiency of Incarceration

• High Costs

– Fiscal: $260 billion on criminal justice each year

– Economic: Country’s poverty rate would have

been 20% lower without mass incarceration.

– Social: 2.7 million children with incarcerated

parent.

• Low Benefits – Incarceration at today’s levels is ineffective at

reducing crime.


11/23

Can you decrease incarceration &

decrease crime?


12/23

Yes!


13/23

New York

• Reduced prison

population by 26% and

crime fell by 28% since

2000.• In 2009, repealed the

Rockefeller Drug laws,

and reduced felony

arrests.


14/23

California

• Reduced its prison



2000.• U.S. Supreme Court

order to reduce

imprisonment in 2011.


15/23

Texas

• Reduced its prison



2000.• In 2007, in lieu of

building prisons,

appropriated $200

million to treatmentprograms.


16/23

What is CompStat?

•Managementtechnique

• System ofaccountability &

results• Relies on data

• Originated in

NYPD in 1994.• Used in 41 of 50

biggest cities.


17/23

City Examples


18/23

What works in policing?

• Takeaway: More police, better managed, can

bring down crime.

• Introduction of CompStat is associated with a

10% decline in crime.

• Increasing numbers of police officers

contributed to 5% of the crime drop.


19/23

What do all these numbers mean

for bills in my state?


20/23

Support Reforms to:

• Reducing bail amounts

• Reclassifying felonies to misdemeanors

•

Removing incarceration for low-level crimes• Reducing sentences for marijuana possession

• Reducing mandatory minimums


21/23

Support Reforms to: (contd.)

• Expanding treatment and reentry

• Expanding parole/likelihood of release

•

Raising the age of criminal responsibility


22/23

Findings do not support:

• Increasing bail amounts

• Increasing sentences for drug offenders

•

Increasing mandatory minimums• Restricting parole/likelihood of release


23/23

Thank You & Questions

• Resource Page:https://www.brennancenter.org/what-caused-crime-decline

– Report, What Caused the Crime Decline? – State Fact Sheets

– Legislative Strategy Document

– PowerPoint

• Contact: LB Eisen, Counsel, [email protected];646-292-8320

Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?

Documents

Transcript of Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?