Wales & West Utilities

Future of Energy

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Oliver Lancaster

Future of Energy Project Manager

@gasworksollie

Wales & West Utilities

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We are the Gas DSO & Designer for Wales & south west England

We supply c.2,000 micro generation sites (CHPs)

We have 37power stations connected with 1.76 GW total capacity

We have 1.7 TWh green gas connected to our network (19 AD sites)

We flexibly deploy 58 GWh of storage each day (UK 210 TWh seasonally)

We’re investing in our future low cost and green gas/H2-ready network

Our network is resilient to severe weather and climate change projections

On a cold winter day over 80% of heat & power is transported in the gas network.

The energy system is becoming more integrated and our role is changing.

Integrated Gas & Electricity Networks

Latest Projects & Further Research

Green City Vision – Swindon

• Joint WWU, SSEN & UKPN project with Progressive Energy• Cross vector, HPT demand, any supply options, hybrids• Project objectives:

– Design a 2050 energy solution that’s affordable, secure and green

– Using the 2050 Energy Pathfinder model to assess solutions

– Inform investment strategies for gas and electricity networks

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Latest Projects & Further Research

Regional FES

• Project with Regen• Project objectives:

– Use learning from the Gas Demand Forecasting Project (Delta-EE)

– Apply regional strategies and information from stakeholders (e.g. LAs)

– Developing granular forecasts at a sub LDZ level for the first time

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Smart Hybrid Heating in a Whole Energy System

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Smart hybrid heating technology presents a decarbon isation breakthrough for the future of home comfort

Avoids over-investment in power generation and ener gy infrastructure reinforcement and diverts that investment into flexible domestic assets for c onsumers

• Analysis shows the solution could be the lowest cost pathway to fully decarbonise residential heat

• Up to £15.2b/year saving vs. full electrification & consumer bills 50% vs. inflexible consumers

• Deployed and tested in real homes with real people in South Wales – needs deploying at larger scale

• Affordable and low disruption solution for consumers – with limited behaviour change

• Works in domestic properties serviced by gas grid, LPG or oil – needs demonstrating in non-domestics

• Optimises the whole-system use of renewable power and low carbon gas in existing utility infrastructure

• Flexibility controls support a secure, low carbon energy system

• Economic benefits: workforce up-skilled, manufacturing opportunities and export-ready systems

Key Outcomes

£5.2m collaborative project between WPD, Wales & West Utilities, PassivSystems, Imperial College, Delta-ee and City University to evaluate Hybrid Heating Systems

Installed into 75 homes in 2017 in the Bridgend ‘Living Heat Lab’

Low cost retrofit to existing wet system with unique smart controller

Introduction

75 installations installed and operated over the 2017-18 winter heating season:

• 16 x Daikin Combined Unit (WDS Clean Energy installer)

• 16 x Samsung & Worcester Bosch Boiler (Spire Renewables installer)

• 43 x MasterTherm & Vaillant Boiler (Thermal Earth installer)

Installations

Example: Samsung HP – 5kw

Property Information

3x off-gas-grid properties, 3x systems boilers, 1x retrofit to an existing boiler

Locations – South Wales, Bridgend

• ASHP Uptake Scenario

• The cumulative electricity distribution network reinforcement cost in the South Wales area until 2050

• Reinforcement cost is split per voltage level

• By 2050 up to about £1,700m should be invested into the South Wales electricity distribution network to accommodate the baseline load growth and the uptake of ASHPs

Counterfactual Scenario

Against the counterfactual scenario:

• Using PassivSystems smart controls

• Savings of about £1,500m by 2050 for PassivSystems smart control scenario

Hybrid Heating with Smart Controls

The reinforcement cost is only driven by the baseline demand growth.

PassivSystems Control Technology

• Customers choose when they want to be warm

- Remote app control designed to increase trust – with scheduling, comfort/cost, budgeting

• Control software

- Learns thermal properties of the home

- Predicts energy required to meet comfort

- Calculates optimal strategy to minimise cost or carbon

• Aggregated consumption across homes

- Energy forecasts for each home

- Shift demand away from DNO peaks & push signals to execute DSR

Gas:electricity price ratio of 1:3. Gas usage: red , Electricity usage: black .

Intro to Hybrid Optimisation

TOUT & Constraint Optimisation

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Homes with hybrid heating systems being individually optimised to constrain whole home capacity below Elexon standard profile peak and using SWALEC red rate distribution charging price signal to avoid grid peaks.

Example Aggregation

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14th March, 09:28:34

Target

Example Aggregation

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14th March, 09:30:30

Example Aggregation

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14th March, 09:31:08

Example Aggregation

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14th March, 09:37:04

Example Aggregation

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14th March, 09:38:23

Example Aggregation

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14th March, 09:39:23

Example Aggregation

Marginal Generation to Meet Added Load

Efficiency Reducing Marginal Generation

Marginal Carbon Intensity

Mild Weather, LPG Home

Beast from the East, LPG Home

Off Gas Grid Home – Case Study

Rural hillside, exposed, farm cottage with no retrofitted insulation for heat pump use

Off Gas Grid Home – Case Study

• LPG price for this home simulates a smart hybrid future for on-gas-grid using:- biomethane, hydrogen or natural gas with a carbon tax

• The hybrid system delivered 19,887kWh heat from the heat pump and 5,587kWh from the LPG boiler• The cost to the homeowner was:

£657 in electricity£391 in LPG£1,047 total

Using LPG alone would have cost £1,783, therefore delivering a net cost saving of £736/year• The heat pump took 78% of the load• The home outperformed MCS by 25%• A future generation mix with greater renewable capacity could achieve 100% decarbonisation using:

- the heat pump with renewable generation (principally wind), and- gas boiler with BioLPG during low wind, high electricity cost, cold periods and in response to constraints or flexibility value signals

System Switchover

Summary Project Findings• Smart switching decision 17,520 times a year driven by:

- Market prices and fuel price ratio, linked to renewable generation- Marginal carbon intensity of electricity- Electricity network capacity constraints & flexibility revenue opportunities- Heat pump efficiencies with cold weather demand

• Gas networks provide the storage and flexibility to the smart hybrid system, moving to low carbon gas• Best control strategy: use the boiler for bursts of heat and ASHP for temperature maintenance and baseload• Hybrids using natural gas offer lower cost and lower carbon heat compared to using a heat pump alone• Imperial has identified:

- Up to £15.2b gross savings/year (mainly avoided over-building of generation & DNO reinforcement) - Flexible consumers’ heat bills will be around 50% lower than their inflexible peers

So What?

Any questions?