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Vulnerability to Climate Change:Mumbai-Thane Coast:

A Pilot Workshoporganised by

Centre for Education & Documentation3 Suleman Chambers

4 Battery StreetMumbai 400 001

Institute for Community Organisations & ResearchSt Pius College Campus

Aarey Road Goregaon EasyMumbai 400 063

This programme is supported by INECC - Indian Network for Ethics on Climate Change as part of its largereffort to facilitate grassroots engagement on vulnerability of different eco-regions to the impacts of climate changeto communities already at risk and vulnerable to other forces, local, regional and global.

INECC is a network of individuals and organization representatives, who are concerned with the Climate Changeissue, particularly with reference to the Indian situation. The network has been in operation since 1996. INECCbelieves that Climate change is a part of a large environmental crisis and addresses the basic issue of ecologicallydestructive development processes that have been globally pursued.

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NOTES & READINGS

• Coasts are already experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related toClimate and sea-level

• Coast will be exposed to increasing risk including coastal erosion in the comingdecades

• Increased human pressure on coasts migration, land use, development willmake matters worse

• Due to lower adaptive capacity developing countries will have a bigger problem• Cost of adaptation are much less than cost of inaction• Sea level rise is now long term and it conflicts with present day human

development patterns and trends.

These are the main points made by the IPCC working group II in Chapter 6 on Coastal and LowLying Areas. The report concludes:• Climate change and sea-level rise increase the challenge of achieving sustainable development in

coastal areas, with the most serious impediments in developing countries, in part due to their loweradaptive capacity. Long-term sea-level rise projections mean that risks will grow for manygenerations unless there is a substantial and ongoing investment in adaptation. Hence,

• Increased effort to move from reactive to more proactive responses in coastal management.• Strengthening integrated multidisciplinary and participatory approaches• retrospective analyses of coastal disasters• Technological developments most especially in softer technologies associated with monitoring• predictive modelling and broad-scale assessment and assessment of coastal management actions,

both present and past• Traditional practices can be an important component of the coastal management tool-kit.• Finally, any response to climate change has to address the other non- climate drivers of coastal

change in terms of understanding potential impacts and responses, as they will interact with climatechange. As recognised in earlier IPCC assessments and the Millennium Ecosystem and LOICZ,these other drivers generally exacerbate the impacts of climate change

The complete report is available on : http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html . The next page contains the executive summary of this Chapter.

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Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made sixmajor points in its chapter on Coastal Systems and Low Lying Areas

I. Coasts areexperiencing the adverseconsequences of hazardsrelated to climate andsea level (very highconfidence).

Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which imposesubstantial costs on coastal societies. Annually, about 120 million people areexposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to2000. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed toincreased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but withconsiderable local and regional variation due to other factors. Late 20th centuryeffects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost andassociated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality].

II Coasts will be exposedto increasing risks,including coastalerosion, over comingdecades due to climatechange and sea-level rise(very high confidence)

Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level ofup to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extremewaves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification.These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but theimpacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative.

Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity.Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result inmore frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there isthermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals. Coastal wetland ecosystems,such as saltmarshes and mangroves, are especially threatened where they aresediment-starved or constrained on their landward margin. Degradation ofcoastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implicationsfor the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goodsand services. Increased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries andother resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change.

III. The impact ofclimate change on coastsis exacerbated byincreasing human-induced pressures (veryhigh confidence).

Utilisation of the coast increased dramatically during the 20th century and thistrend is virtually certain to continue through the 21st century. Under the SRESscenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990)to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions aboutmigration]. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast aresubject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes incatchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast. Populateddeltas (especially Asian megadeltas), low-lying coastal urban areas and atollsare key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability, occurring where the stresseson natural systems coincide with low human adaptive capacity and highexposure]. Regionally, South, South-east and East Asia, Africa and smallislands are most vulnerable]. Climate change therefore reinforces thedesirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner.

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IV. Adaptation for thecoasts of developingcountries will be morechallenging than forcoasts of developedcountries, due toconstraints on adaptivecapacity (highconfidence).

While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for bothhuman populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often themost important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Adaptivecapacity is largely dependent upon development status. Developing nations mayhave the political or societal will to protect or relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones, but without the necessary financial and otherresources/capacities, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developednation in an identical coastal setting. Vulnerability will also vary betweendeveloping countries, while developed countries are not insulated from theadverse consequences of extreme events.

V. Adaptation costs forvulnerable coasts aremuch less than the costsof inaction (highconfidence)

Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs withoutadaptation for most developed coasts, even considering only property losses andhuman deaths. As post-event impacts on coastal businesses, people, housing,public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environmentgenerally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting, the full benefits ofadaptation are even larger]. Without adaptation, the high-end sea-level risescenarios, combined with other climate changes (e.g., increased stormintensity), are as likely as not to render some islands and low-lying areasunviable by 2100, so effective adaptation is urgently required.

VI. The unavoidabilityof sea-level rise, even inthe longer-term,frequently conflicts withpresent-day humandevelopment patternsand trends (highconfidence)

Sea-level rise has substantial inertia and will continue beyond 2100 for manycenturies. Irreversible breakdown of the West Antarctica and/or Greenland icesheets, if triggered by rising temperatures, would make this long-term risesignificantly larger, ultimately questioning the viability of many coastalsettlements across the globe. The issue is reinforced by the increasing humanuse of the coastal zone. Settlement patterns also have substantial inertia, andthis issue presents a challenge for long-term coastal spatial planning.Stabilisation of climate could reduce the risks of ice sheet breakdown, andreduce but not stop sea-level rise due to thermal expansion. Hence, it is nowmore apparent than it was in the TAR that the most appropriate responseto sea-level rise for coastal areas is a combination of adaptation to dealwith the inevitable rise, and mitigation to limit the long-term rise to amanageable level .

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VULNERABILITY- is the degree to which a system isaffected by adverse effects of climatechange- is a function of• direct impacts on the system• sensitivity of the system• adaptive capacity of the system

VULNERABILITY

Vulnerability is defined as the susceptibility to stresses or hazards, and the capacity (or lack, thereof) toprepare, cope and recover from such hazards. Human vulnerability, in particular, is a condition resultingfrom physical, social, economic and environmentalfactors, which determine the likelihood and scale ofdamage from the impact of a given hazard. Humanvulnerability includes the vulnerability of social andeconomic systems, health status, physical infrastructureand environmental assets It is the concept that explainswhy a community is more or less at risk to a givenhazard.

However, neither vulnerability alone nor hazard alonedetermines the occurrence of a disaster. A hazard, by itself, is simply a potentially damaging event orphysical disturbance and it is the combination of hazard and vulnerability that disaster occurs. (Mitchell,J. K. (eds.) (1999). Crucibles of Hazard: Megacities and Disasters in Transition. Tokyo: UN UniversityPress. As quoted in Mumbai after 26/7 Deluge: Some Issues and Concerns in Regional Planning . R. B.Bhagat1, Mohua Guha and Aparajita Chattopadhyay - www.cicred.org

What is Vulnerability to Climate Change?

THE IPCC DEFINITION: "The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with,adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a functionof the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity,and its adaptive capacity. The term ‘vulnerability’ may therefore refer to the vulnerable system itself,e.g., low-lying islands or coastal cities; the impact to this system, e.g., flooding of coastal cities andagricultural lands or forced migration; or the mechanism causing these impacts, e.g., disintegration of theWest Antarctic ice sheet. (IPCC – http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch19s19-1-2.html)

Direct impacts - System exposure to crises, stresses and shocks

First, there is the direct impact due to rise in sea level and increase in sea temperatures that may inundatelow lying areas or result in depletion of fish stock. Sea level rise will have multiple impacts. It willinundate coastal settlements, aggravate flood situations, erode beaches, further impacting settlements,and will leave vast swathes of land and water sources saline. The net result will be the displacement ofpeople from these densely populated areas.

Sensitivity of the system

Second, there are other changes brought about by dumping of industrial waste or reduction of mangrovecover the coast line which have already has an adverse impact on the lives and livelihoods of localcommunities; in which case, climate change will exacerbate the existing vulnerability.Beyond actual inundation, rising sea levels will also put millions of people at greater risk of flooding.This will displace a large number of people and result in rapid urbanisation (as already seen in someparts of Gujarat and Maharashtra), straining resources and putting more pressure on civic amenities.Increased sea water percolation may further reduce freshwater supplies.

Adaptive capacity Focus on perturbations alone (environmental, socioeconomic, technological) was insufficient forunderstanding the responses of, and impacts on, systems (social groups, ecosystems, places) exposed to

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such perturbations. The ability of the system to attenuate stresses or cope with the consequences iscritical. We need a clearer understanding of coping strategies or mechanisms, of who and what are atrisk, from what. Which are the specific stresses and perturbations which have higher risk and majorimpacts. This includes the consequences and attendant risks of slow (or poor) system recovery.

This perspective suggests that the most vulnerable individuals, groups, classes and regions or places arethose that: experience the most exposure to perturbations or stresses; are the most sensitive toperturbations or stresses (i.e. most likely to suffer from exposure); and have the weakest capacity torespond and ability to recover.

Within this extended vulnerability framework, there is formal recognition that macroforces - broad-scaleenvironmental and human systems within which the local system resides - come together to affect thelocal system and, simultaneously, influence the pressures that act upon it. Different pressures acrossscales come together in various sequences to create unique "bundles" of stress that affect local systems.A major hypothesis holds that when stresses or perturbations emanating from the environment coalescewith those arising from society, significant consequences can result. For example, economic depressionreduces society's capability to develop or maintain pre-emptive coping measures to reduce the impacts ofdrought, such that the co-occurrence of drought and economic depression synergistically enlarges thevulnerability of the system. The risks resulting from such vulnerabilities emerge from multiple sourcesand at different scales. These risks cascade through interacting human and environmental systems tocreate adverse consequences”.( The vulnerability of global cities to climate hazards, Alex DeSherbinin, Andrew Schiller And Alex Pulsipher, Environment and Urbanization, Vol 21, Number I,April, 2009-Sage, New Delhi).

In the urban context the vulnerability becomes more evident of a certain section of people and theseinvolve large numbers. The questions to ask are:

• Who lives or works where infrastructure like drains, drinking water, sewage, could reduce therisk/impact of climate change

• Who lives or works where there isdirect impact of climate changelike floods, landslides,

• Whose houses provide lessprotection for their family andpossessions

• Who is not capable of takingshort term measures like movingfamily, belongings, money,utensils, beddings etc just beforethe flood or disaster hits? Whatkind of knowledge, fore warning,

• Who is least capable to cope withimpacts on health, injury, death?

• Who is least capable of dealingwith loss of property, income

• Who has least cover of insurance,and most likely to get no orinadequate compensation fromgovernments

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OUR COASTS & CITIES

Coasts Cities

More than 600 million people (or 10 percentof the global population) reside in coastalzones of less than 10 metres elevation,

Less than two percent of the global populationresided in “megacities” of 10 million or moreinhabitants about 25 years ago. Today theproportion exceeds four percent, and by 2015 itwill top 50 percent, when megacities are likely tohouse 400 million people.77 million people, residein megacities in coastal area

Indian coastline extends to about 5700 kmson mainland and to about 7500 kmsincluding two groups of islands.

An India country study by the Tata EnergyResearch Institute and the Ministry ofEnvironment and Forests published in 1995projected that a 1 metre sea level rise couldput as many as 7.1 million people --including all coastal fishing communitieswhose livelihood is directly linked to theocean -- at risk of displacement

The 2001 Census established that almost one-thirdof India’s population, i.e., an estimated 285 millionpeople live in urban areas. By 2020, half of thecountry’s population is expected to be city-based.In some states, the percentage is much higher thanthe national average. Of the 285 million urbandwellers in India, over a third – i.e., 108 million –live in 35 million-plus cities.

Western coastline has a wide continental shelfhaving an area of about 0.31 million km 2 whichis marked by backwaters and mud flats..Mangroves are located all along estuarine areas,deltas, tidal creeks, mud flats, salt marshes andextend to about 6740 km 2 (about 7% of world'smangrove areas). Major estuarine areas locatedalong the Indian coasts extend to about 2.6million hectares

States like Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have43.86 and 42.40 percent respectively of theirpopulation living in cities and towns. In actualnumbers, Maharashtra, India’s most urbanized statehas an urban population base of 41 million.

The coastal states of Maharashtra, Goa andGujarat face a grave risk from sea level rise,which could flood land (includingagricultural land), and cause damage tocoastal infrastructure and other property. Goawill be the worst hit, losing a largepercentage of its total land area, includingmany of its famous beaches and touristinfrastructure.

Every city is marked by the informal settlementswhere the poor are forced to live without access tobasic services like water and sanitation. Cityadministrations are unable to check the flow ofpoor people into the city and have failed to providethem affordable housing. As a result, in some citieslike Mumbai, for instance, half of the population(49 percent according to Census 2001) lives inslums. During any climatic hazards like flooding,the most vulnerable are the residents of thesesquatter settlements, many of which are located inlow-lying areas.

A one metre rise in sea level will adverselyaffect 7 per cent of the population in Goa,and cause damages to the tune of Rs 8,100crore.. In the state of Maharashtra, over 13lakh people are at risk.

The cost of damages for Mumbai, the businesscapital of India, is estimated to be Rs 2,28,700crore.

Mumbai’s northern suburbs like Versova Beach andother populated areas along tidal mud flats and creeksare vulnerable to land loss and increased flooding due tosea level rise.

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The fact that so many people reside in megacities near coastlines, and that these cities continue to grow,underscores the importance of assessing the vulnerability of such cities to various natural hazards.Recent incidents have highlighted the vulnerability of cities, in particular, to climate hazards anddifferent environmental shocks.

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[Text adapted from ( Full text available at www.doccentre.net or www.inecc.net

1. Asian Development Bank 1994, Climate Change in Asia: India Country Report, Manila, p 77Tata Energy Research Institute 2002, India specific impacts of climate change,http://www.teriin.org/climate/impacts.htm, as viewed on July 2, 2002

2.Impacts of Climate Change in Western and Central India, Centre for Science and Environment, NewDelhi, 2000http://old.cseindia.org/programme/geg/pdf/western.pdf

2. Fishing in Troubled Waters: The Impact of Climate Change on Fishing Communities By LalithaSridhar India Resource Center, October 24, 2002http://www.indiatogether.org/opinions/lalisri/ls1202.htm

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Saltpans and Rise in sea levels

The government of Maharashtra have longbeen eyeing Mumbai’s saltpans under thepretext of undertaking low-cost housingprojects to relocate the city’s slum-dwellersand upgrade infrastructural facilities.Saltpans are lands along the coast thatwere hollowed out to process salt; inMumbai they are spread overapproximately 5,378 acres.

The move has triggered a heated debateamong environmentalists, citizens’ groupsand those concerned with urban planning.The civic body’s plans for the last fewstretches of saltpans would spell disasterfor Mumbai, say citizens’ groups andenvironmentalists. The latter argue that amajor portion of the land is covered byCoastal Regulatory Zone (CRZ) guidelines,and that these lands cannot be used fordevelopment. Besides, saltpans form partof the fragile ecosystem that supportsthousands of species of animals, birds andfish.Environmentalists also claim that saltpans,with their thick mangrove trees, areMumbai’s last defence against flooding.“The saltpans are eco-sensitive zones thatact as natural buffers against oceanflooding… They absorb the rush of waterfrom the sea,” says the Bombay NaturalHistory Society (BNHS)

The next five years are going to be crucial,say experts, as rising sea levels threatenthe city. One of the biggest challenges forthe state forest ministry will be to save thesaltpans and mangrove lands in andaround Mumbai. It will also have to put anend to the large-scale destruction ofmangroves along the city’s coastline, failingwhich millions of lives will be affected.(infochangeindia.org)

Development & Vulnerability

The Vulnerability of the Coastal Regions to Climate Change sits on top of, and is exacerbated byvulnerabilities created by other human activities. of other non-climate change related anthropogenicactivity. The irony is that it is the same activity, as is responsible for climate change. So Climate Changeas an effect share its creator with other destructivepractices. These practices are more pre-dominant in thecoastal regions, or in estuaries, where urbandevelopment and other hyper human activity takesplace.

Which way Dahanu?

Dahanu's dreams of rushing into the neoliberaleconomy

Whether the battle for ecological equity inevitablycompromises opportunities for economic developmentis a question the communities of Dahanu have grappledwith for over a decade. While there may be no simpleanswer, Dahanu's communities live in a paradoxicalreality. Even as the environmental movement hassheltered them from the hazards of unregulatedindustrialisation, it has been unable to provide analternative viable reality, while restricting many of thebenefits of the modern economy.

Home to a predominantly large adivasi community ofWarlis forming 64.84% of the total population of3,31,829 lakh (Census 2001), Dahanu also has a largefishing and farming community. With a total of 174villages and only one municipal area, the main sourceof livelihood is agriculture and its allied activities.Theenvironmental regime, along with civil society action,was able to prevent the setting up of a large industrythat would have destroyed the coast and itscommunities.

However, a decade later, the residents of many fishingvillages are struggling to live off the natural resources.Ganesh Tandel, fisherman and resident of DhaktiDahanu, a fishing village near Vadhavan states, "Wewere definitely relieved when the port was canceled,since we would have lost our livelihoods and beendisplaced. However, if you look at our communitytoday, it is becoming increasingly difficult for us tosustain ourselves and most of the younger generation isopting for jobs outside Dahanu."

The fishing community continues to benefit from the restrictions of the Notification. However, thebigger challenge is to create sustainable and economically viable alternatives in a rapidly changingeconomy and a constantly evolving community. - How Dahanu epitomises the environment vsdevelopment debate by Michelle Chawla, InfoChange News & Features, April 2009

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Public Interest Litigations (PILs) in the BombayHigh Courty on the Dredging:The PILs have complained about dredging anddumping at Panvel (or Ulwe) creek and theSavitri river in Mahad. Another PIL allegesillegal sand dredging at Alibaug. Miners’footprint on waterways under fire. Times ofIndia, 13th March 2010.

The report of Shyam R Asolekar, head of IIT-B’s Centre for Environmental Science andEngineering at the behest of high court said-“present status of destruction of habitats offishermen and fishes due to prevailing rampantsand dredging and mining”- need for environmental audit of rivers,estuaries and their ecosystems, studying thebiodiversity and dependence of fishermen andcoastal communities on the water bodies,looking into the destruction caused by dredgingand mining and taking stock of the resources ofthe sand mining sector.- the verdant Panvel creek is being destroyed onboth banks through reclamation and dumping.Prof Asolekar called for “recovery andrecycling of construction quality sand fromdebris’’.

Dredging of sand for increasing construction

The historic Panvel (or Ulve) creek gets special mention in the Bombay Gazette records. Centuries agothe creek used to have pearls on its sandy bed and was a focal point of trade and commerce with Persia.Today, the creek is mined for a different kind of treasure—its dark sand—and this could soon transformthe creek into an ugly, black canal.

The dark sand dredged is used in construction activity, say environmental activists. Miners have beendredging the creek for years together and storing the sand on dry docks on both sides of the creek, whichis considered a Coastal Regulation Zone. The sand is reportedly sold to builders in and around NaviMumbai. The 7-km-long creek passes through Taloja, Panvel and Ulve, before entering the sea atBelapur.

A senior official with the Thane collectorate said that the administration has been vigilant in the areaafter receiving complaints about the illegalactivity. “We have penalised 214 trucks andrecovered penalties worth Rs 24.63 lakh fromoffenders carrying unauthorised excavated sandlast year,’’ the official said.

But residents say the illegal activity continues withthe help of local godfathers. “The creek has beenexploited to the hilt as the transportation costs areat a minimum, but a great ecological damage hasbeen done over the years,’’ said P B Menon, aresident who lives near the creek. Swati Parkresidents have undertaken a signature campaign tostop the illegal activity and even filed a PIL on theissue. “We feel the creek will become anotherMithi river in a few years’ time. That is when NaviMumbai will see more floods,’’ Menon said.

Activists say that more than sand mining, it is thedumping of debris on both sides of the creek that isslowly killing the creek. “Truckloads of debris arebeing carried along the creek and pucca roads arebeing made to dump the debris on the banks. Onboth sides of the creek, there are huge mounds ofsand as high as two-storey buildings which isperiodically dredged from the creek,’’ Menon said.(http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com)

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Disasters Coming…

The list of most polluted industrial clusters in the country, which were announced on Thursday, figuresfive in and around the city. Domivli, Navi Mumbai, Tarapur, Chembur and Pimpri-Chinchwad arenames that appear in the top 50 most polluted areas out of the 88 areas identified by the Unionenvironment and forest ministry.

The areas have reached their top level in terms of air, water and land pollution. And, the worst is that allthe five clusters have reached critical levels of pollution, which has forced the Centre to put on holdexpansion in these areas.

Chembur, which ranks 46 in the list, with a comprehensive environment pollution index (CEPI) of 69.19has chemical industries, a power plant and refineries that have severely affected marine life in Mahulcreek.

At the Mahul creek, the worst-hit have been the fishermen. About a decade ago, Waman Koli, afisherman from Mahul, used to net over 300kg fish every day at the Mahul creek but today the averagedaily catch is around 50kg. The contamination of water at Mahul has forced Koli to rethink hisoccupation to earn his livelihood. Koli now doubles up as a guide to bird watchers who visit Mahul creeksupplement his income.

The marine life at Mahul has ceased to exist due to the pollution from the nearby industries.

"The pollution has not only killed all the fish but also also threatens to destroy the creek," Koli said.

The industrial pollution along with vehicular pollution and pollution due to continuous constructionactivity in Mumbai can prove to be disastrous for the city. "Mumbai is one of the most densely populatedcities in the world and pollution in the surrounding areas has very high impact on general health ofpeople," Debi Goenka of Conservation Action Trust, said. "It is surprising that government is stillallowing expansion of industrial units such as Tata Power plant, which was allowed to add one moreunit."

Chembur residents, who have chemical factories and refineries as their neighbours, have beencomplaining about the pollution for a long time. Frequent breathing problems that the residents have tobear are being ignored by the authorities.

The effects of pollution due to the industries at Tarapur have also adversely affected the ground waterresources in the region. "There is no way the pollution control board can check the levels of pollutionwith the acute crunch of effective machinery to monitor the industries," Goenka said.

The chemical industries are the most disastrous as chemicals from different factories mix and formanother chemical. "This is something even more serious as no one knows its effects on the soil, groundwater and the water bodies in which it is released. All these violations are going unchecked as the stategovernment agencies are least bothered," (www.dnaindia.com)

http://infochangeindia.org/Environment/The-paradox-of-environmentalism/People-vs-environmentalists.html

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The Deluge that was..

The year 2005 was a crude reminder to urban planners of the crisis that urban India faces. Within a spanof few months, three major metros in the country – Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai were laid low byunexpectedly heavy rains. The worst hit was India’s commercial capital, Mumbai, where after adownpour of 944 mm in 18 hours on July 26, 2005, the city came to a complete standstill for the next 48hours. A common thread runs through the crisis that immobilized all these cities. It illustrates the crisisof urban planning in India.

An inquiry into the handling of the 26/7 floods, conducted by the National Institute of DisasterManagement (NIDM) at the request of the Union Home Ministry has revealed the negligence and grosslack of awareness on part of the authorities supposed to manage disasters under the detailed planprepared for the city. This report has blamed the absence of a sustainable model of urban planning,where the planning processes have been replaced by short-term opportunistic decisions that destroynatural environmental safeguards and neglect the needs of the majority of city dwellers.

It is very important to note that the built up areas in the city have increased manifold engulfing the openspaces, hills, mangroves, wetlands and the natural drainages provided by Mithi and Dahisar rivers, and adisaster like July 26 might occur again. Although a rainfall of approximately 100 cm in just few hours asa result of cloudburst was unprecedented, the biggest question, however, is how to reach people at themoment of crisis like this and keep the transport network and means of communication functional in thecity. Among other elements, disaster preparedness and managements plans are vital components of anadaptation strategy. But to design these, we need a better understanding of which people and systems arevulnerable to such hazards; also what makes them vulnerable,

The complex processes ofurbanization along with the rapidexpansion of urban populationhave changed the traits of naturalhazards and cities have nowbecome ‘crucibles of risk’.Sometimes, even the location ofcities place them at greater riskfrom climate hazards such ascyclones, flooding, etc. Theseevents underscore the vulnerabilityto natural hazards faced by theurban people, in general, and thepoor, in particular, especially thoseliving in sub-standard housing inthe most vulnerable locations

Source: Mumbai after 26/7Deluge: Some Issues and Concerns in Regional Planning R. B. Bhagat1, Mohua Guha andAparajita Chattopadhyay. (http://www.cicred.org)- Pix courtesy: www.treehugger.com

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The UN WRI's (World Resources Index) 1998 figures peg theIndian Ocean sector as the most densely populated coastal regionin the world, with 135 persons per square kilometer. Largepopulations along these coastlines depend on fishing for theirlivelihood and nutrition. In Southern India's Gulf of MannarBiosphere Reserve, 200,000 people -- a third of the population --earn their living directly from the sea.

According to R.Ramesh, R.Purvaja and S.Ramachandran,scientists at the Institute for Ocean Management, AnnaUniversity, Chennai, greenhouse gas emissions are depleting theozone layer to the extent that we have 7 percent more UVradiation now than we did less than 10 years ago. A study by Dr.Herman Cesar, Institute of Environmental Studies, FreeUniversity, The Netherlands, revealed that between February toJune in 1998, surface water temperatures in the Indian Oceanwas reportedly 4 to 6 degrees centigrade above normal for anextended period of time. Fish catches worldwide plummeted in1998 due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation which, exacerbatedby global warming, lasted for over 18 months. Fishmealproduction fell by 10 million tons -- about 10 percent of theglobal fish catch -- and entire species such as horse mackerel,mackerel and hake were acutely scarce. –(Fishing in Troubled Waters: The Impact of Climate Change onFishing Communities By Lalitha Sridhar India Resource Center,October 24, 2002http://www.indiatogether.org/opinions/lalisri/ls1202.htm

We know.."We have developed a sixth sense topredict the ferocity of monsoon and thelevel of high tides. So, our fishermennormally move beyond that line of hightide. But we are also finding that our seacreeks, like the Versova creek, aregetting narrower due to reclamationactivity in other areas. Squeezed out, thewater has to find an outlet, affecting ourcommunity living and working in thecoastal zone," explains Dr GajendraKisan Bhanji, Chairman, NationalAssociation of Fishermen.( Climate isChanging, But Mumbai is Not bySurekha Kadapa-Bose

Fish, Fishing Communities and Fishing Habitat

Habitat in DangerFishing Habitat in danger due toIndustrialization, pollution, sky-rocketing prices of diesel, anddeclining catches . Displacementfrom the coast, construction ofseawalls, erosion and sand miningare altering the coast’s contoursand affecting the social, economicand cultural environment offishworker communities.

Scientists warn that the fishingindustry in India faces a crisis,caused by overfishing. Around4,000 trawlers prowl the coast offMaharashtra, their metallic jawsscraping the bottom of the seabedanddestroying marine habitat.Couple that with effluentsdischarged into the sea bythousands of industrial units and itis no surprise that the quality andquantity of catch has hit an all-time low. Times of India,Mumbai, 6 Apr 2009 -

Livelihood effectedThat rapid climate change is impacting food security has been apparent for several years.Climate change has a direct and terrible effect on the livelihood of coastal fishworkers. They rateamongst the poorest of the poor but their concerns are completely marginalized Although they may notunderstand global warming and greenhouse emissions, their traditional knowledge of the oceans, fine-tuned over centuries, should be providing key insights. But artisanal fishworkers have become victims ofdevelopment instead of being participants to the process.(www.corpwatch.org)

Trawlers on the Prowl?Around 4,000 trawlers prowl the coast off Maharashtra,their metallic jaws scraping the bottom of the seabed anddestroying marine habitat. Couple that with effluentsdischarged into the sea by thousandsof industrial units and it is no surprise that the quality andquantity of catch has hit an all-time low.( Sea could become watery grave for fishing' .The Timesof India, Mumbai, 06 Apr 2009)

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Every fisherman then caught at least 10 kilograms of fish. Now,this has fallen to just one kilogram," added another fisherman atthe hearing.

So where has all the catch gone? Ask any fish-worker alongIndia's 8,118 kilometre-long (including islands) coastline, theanswers are similar - "Low catch... unpredictable rainfall". Forcommunities from the Gujarat and Maharashtra coast, pollutionis another such hurdle to income-generation. "Global warming,increase in temperatures has impacted all the activities of coastalpeople," added Vaithalingam. (Climate Change LeavesFisherman at Sea By Papri Sri Raman, Womens Feature Service)

Where are the Fish?

National Fishworkers’ Forum'scomplaint is that the Indiancoastline is being destroyed in therace to attract investments. Toappear industry friendlygovernments in the states areturning a blind eye to the dumpingof wastes at river mouths and inthe sea. Oil tankers are beingcleaned close to the coast andstructures are coming up where thenatural contours of the coastshould be preserved.

N D Koli of the Maharashtra Macchimaar Kruti Samiti says Goa is facing the twin onslaught of theshipping and tourism industries. Oil slicks from ships moving close to the coastline, and oil tankersgetting washed in shallow waters against all existing regulations continue to pollute the seas. Hugemounds of dead fish and tar balls (caused by ship fuel) pile up on the beaches. As the tourism industrygrabs land, and continues to develop resorts, destroying sand dunes and sinking wells along the coast,traditional livelihoods and coastal ecosystems are attack, drastically reducing the fish catch. (Fishworkers on a long, lonely march by Rina Mukherji. Civil Society Magazine, 01 Jun 2008. )

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The sea has been encroached. Large parts of ithave been reclaimed. Mumbai’s primecommercial real estate – Backbay Reclamationand Bandra-Kurla complex - are built onreclaimed land. Mangroves, the breeding groundfor fish, have also been hacked to make way forswanky apartments and offices. Mumbai’s 15million inhabitants dump their sewage into thesea with minimal treatment. The water is alsopolluted by chemical plants, oil slicks andgarbage. To top it all, the government plans tobuild more bridges and recreational boating.That just may be the last straw for fishermen.“For one month, my father and brother havebeen sitting at home. There’s no catch. In Vasai(northern suburb), people have sold their boatsand are working as musicians in wedding bands.What will happen to us?” Sameer asks. “Afterthe construction of the bridge started, fish don’tcome close to the shore. In the last five years,our family’s income has dropped by 80 percent.” They sold their wooden boat (which needsnine people) and bought a smaller fibreglassone (which needs five people) which uses lessfuel. “Now, we cut costs by employing lesspeople, using less diesel, not going far out. Likefarmers, we too are in debt. We take anadvance from traders and have to sell at theprice they dictate.” (Mumbai's lost world:/www.dionnebunsha.com)

Encroaching Sea

Rapid sea invasion along the Gujarat coast isforcing families of fishermen to abandon the seaand their homes. No local studies have been donein India to measure the precise impact of globalwarming. But, in the last decade, several factorscontributed to the loss of coastal land due to sealevel rise," says Murari Lal. "Arctic ice hasmelted three times faster than predicted by theIPCC in 2001. The sea level has risen twice morethan projected by the climate models. Strongersurface winds and storms have resulted in higherwaves, which reach further inland. Humaninterventions, such as the removal of mangroves,reclamation and construction along the coast,have also led to faster erosion of the coast.""Local factors could also be responsible. Neo-tectonic activity - shifts in the level of the seabed- could also cause the sea level to rise. If there aredisturbances in sediment budgeting along thecoast, the amount of deposits from rivers, it couldalso affect the water level." Their study willdetermine which of these reasons is driving thechanges along the coast.The fish have gone further into the sea because of[industrial] pollution. And the water has comefurther in; so we have suffered. We can't go veryfar in our tiny boats. We used to get 400 to 600fish in one night. Now we barely get a hundred,"says Shantibhai Tandel, a small fisherman. He hasshifted back six times and is now in his seventhhouse. "I want my kids to study. The only thing iswe can't afford donations for their education orbribes to get them a job. If they are lucky, theywill find a job, otherwise they will have to stayhere, continue fishing and face the hardships."Sandwiched as they are between the sea and thesaltpans, there is not much further they canretreat.

Many from the village have moved to other townsor to Dandi in the past eight years. But likeMahesh Hari Tandel, those who moved out forsafety reasons still yearn for the sea. "My boat isstill in Danti and I feel I have to go there everyday," he says. "When my father was alive, weshifted our house four times. After he died, ourhouse broke twice and then we moved here. Afterwe lost the mangroves in the last 15 to 20 years,many people had to migrate to big port towns likeMumbai, Porbandar or Veraval in search of work.Earlier, we could survive by fishing close to theshore and in the mangroves."

The villagers along the coast are not sure why thesea is advancing at such a voracious pace. Somefishermen guessed it might be "because there aremore storms in the sea". One of the reasons couldbe a rise in sea level owing to global warming.They don't know what global warming means, buthave become "environmental refugees"(Gone with the waves by Dionne Bunsha,Frontline, Jul. 14-27, 2007.)

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Climate Refugee

Biplab Mondal, a migrant from Sagar island in theSunderbans of West Bengal, now a resident ofDelhi’s Govindpuri slums, had a nightmare for 25years. “Whenever I looked at the sea I thought itwould march into our village,” he recalls. So when hemigrated to Delhi in 1992, to take up a daily wagejob, he started saving to invest in a house that wouldbe permanent.

After 17 years, Biplab’s nightmare has turned into areality. “My relatives informed me how the seaslowly submerged my home in Sagar. Now there isnothing to call home there,” he says.

In 2009, he spent Rs 70,000 on an illegal hut in theGovindpuri slums. “My hut is illegal, but I am surethat it will not be submerged, ever.”

Biplab’s hut in Govindpuri is surrounded by theillegal settlements of many of his fellow villagerswho have been forced to leave the island due to theinvading sea. “In the last 30 years the sea submergedmany islands in the Sunderbans. And many of ushave migrated to Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai,” -Richard Mahpatra. Infochange, April, 2010.http://infochangeindia.org/Agenda/ Coastal-communities/Coastal-refugees.html

Climate Exiles

Three hours on this road from Baroda and you arrive at Danti - a fishing village just 12 km away fromwhere Mahatma Gandhi led his famous Dandi Salt March. The car meanders through a dirt path into thevillage. And then, the unmistakable signs of climate change - nature's unforgiving backlash to humanprogress - start to show. Between the sea and a row of sea-flanked houses, which ends abruptly, therestands an 8-10 feet wall erected by the government. In the near distance, one can spot wells in the sea,brick-layered walls embedded deep in the sand; the flagpole of a temple.

These are remnants of a village called Moti Danti, now mostly drowned in the Arabian Sea. Hundreds offishing families from this village have permanently migrated inland. They are among the swelling ranksof global "environmental migrants" or "climate exiles" - people who have to leave their habitats becauseof sudden or gradual alterations related to one of three impacts of climate change: sea-level rise, extremeweather events, and drought and water scarcity. The quintessential non-combatants in the climate war,they are the ones who have contributed least to global warming, but whose lives and livelihoods are mostthreatened by it.

Ganpat Bhai Tandel, who moved to Dandi with his family, is among them. Before moving, he says herebuilt his house further inland five times. "I lost my boat, my income has reduced but at least there issatisfaction that the sea won't enter our home here." Still others have moved to the neighbouring areas ofBillimora, Dungri, Kosamba and Lilapur. Further south along Gujarat's 1,600 km coastline, in Kaladravillage, sea-level rise has eroded an entire road stretch and forced hundreds of villagers to rebuild theirhomes further inland.

IN WEST Bengal's ecological wonderland -the Sundarbans - devastating cyclones havepushed the Lohachara Island into the sea,displacing 7,000- 10,000 peoplepermanently. In Orissa, which hasexperienced some of the worst coastalerosion in the country, entire villages havebeen swept away in a storm surge.Yet, we are neither assisting nor protectingthe millions of poor already vulnerable toclimate change. The Government of India'sNational Action Plan on Climate Change(NAPCC), released more than a year ago,made no mention of environmental migrantsor a plan to help them adapt to climatechange.Meanwhile, there are early but sure signs ofthe doomsday scenario unfolding acrossIndia.

(Meet A New Community Of The DisplacedIn India: Climate Refugees, Divya Gupta,Tehelka, 9 November,2009http://www.tehelka.net)

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Vulnerability to Climate Change: Mumbai-Thane CoastPilot Workshop: 29th May 2010

Session I: Environment and Climate Change

Introduction – Fr. Allwyn D’Silva, ICOR,

Outline & Issues before the Workshop –John D’Souza, CED

Regional and local climate changes and factorsaffecting climate: trends, implications andvulnerabilities – Dr. R. V. Sharma; Dy.Director General, India MeteorologicalDepartment.

Session II: Climate Change: Impact on & Vulnerability of Fishing Communities

Impact of Climate change on fisheries and coastalland, vulnerability indicators - Dr. V.V. Singh;Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute,Mumbai.

The fishermen’s view: Neville D’Souza – GoraiMacchimar Sahakari Sanstha LtdPradeep Tapke- Vesava Macchimar VividKaryakari Sahakari Society Ltd.

Trends in fish catch and fish varieties aroundMumbai. Long-term trends and causes of changes.Remedial measures: fishing regulation andpractices. - Dr. Sushanta Chakraborty; CentralInstitute of Fisheries Education, Mumbai

Discussion

Facilitator: Rambhau Patil, Vice President, National Fisherworkers’ Forum

Session III: Impact and Vulnerability of Coastal communities

Shore line changes in Manori and Gorai overthe years, and maybe in some other coastalareas - Dr. Madhavi Pikle; Central Institute ofFisheries Education, Versova.

Vulnerability to climate change: Issues that weneed to study and work on - Prabhakar Nair -Institute for Community Organisation andResearch.

A perspective plan for the six villages ofDharavi Bet - Fr. Elias Gonsalves – Centre forSocial Action,

Discussion: Non-fishing perspectives in theCoast:(Nancy Gaikwad - Disha Kendra, AbhishekBharadwaj: Alternative Realities; VijayMhatre - Dahanu Parisar Bachao Samiti,Sheetal Tachpande/Meghna Dawar.Conservation Action Trust.

Facilitator: Fr. Anthony Dias – Xavier Institute for Social Research

Session IV: The Way Forward

Alternatives: Benson George,Centre for Human EcologyPolicy & People: Fr. Allwyn D’Silva

DiscussionOn what we can do, ideas and plans:John D’Souza to moderate

Workshop Presenter: Raajen Singh

Organised byCentre for Education & Documentation (CED) & Institute for Community Organisation and Research

(ICOR)As a part of

Indian Network for Ethics on Climate Change (INECC)

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