Vulnerability and Adaptation to Droughts/Floods in...

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A. Limsakul, S. Khakrua, B. Suttamanuswong

Environmental Research and Training Center (ERTC)Department of Environmental Quality PromotionMinistry of Natural Resources and Environment

Vulnerability and Adaptation to Droughts/Floods in Thailand

Greater Mekong Subregion –Core Environment Program : Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Yunan and Guangxi Provinces of PR China, Thailand and Viet Nam, 24-26 Feb. 2009, Viet Nam

• Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns

• Observed climate changes & variability in Thailand

• Change in extreme climate events in Thailand

(CU & ERTC funded by TRF)

• Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood study (On-going project of ERTC)

• Future plan & direction

Outline of presentation

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Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns


Monsoon system

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)


Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

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Indian Ocean Dipole

Thailand is located near the center of ‘Tipping Points’ of the Earth Climate System.


It is highly prone to hydro-meteorological disasters.


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Examples of severe tropical cyclones causing large economic damage.

Typhoon ‘GAY’ (1989) Typhoon ‘LINDA’ (1997)

Typhoon ‘CHANTHU’ (2007) Typhoon ‘XANGSANE’ (2009)


Observed climate change & variability in Thailand

Max. temp.

Mean temp.

Min. temp.

Change in mean state of temperature(long-term)

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-3

MEI

Tmin (62%)

Tmean (61%)

Tmax (60%)Change in mean state of temperature

(short-term & ENSO)

Source: Limsakul et. al.,2008


98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105

Latitude

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Lon

git

ud

e

CH IANG RAI

CHIANG MAI

PHARE

NA N

UTTARADI T

PHITSAN ULOK

PHETCHABUN

NAKHON SAWAN

UDON THANI

KHO N KAEN

ROIET

SURIN

NA KHON RATCHAS IM A

LOP BURI

SUPHAN BU RIKANCHANA BUR I

BANGKOK ARANYA P RATHET

CH ANTHA BURISATTATHIP

PRA CHU AP KHIRIK HAN

CHUMPHON

RANONG

NAKHON SI THAM MARAT

PHUKET

TRAN G

SON GKHLA

NA RATHIW AT

Change in mean state of rainfall (leading mode of PCA)(long-term)

(40%)

(31%)


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98 99 100 101 10 2 1 03 104 10 5

L atitude

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Lon

gitu

de

CHI ANG RAI

CHIAN G M AI

PHARE

NAN

UTTARADIT

PHITSAN ULOK

PHETC HABU N

NAKHON SAWAN

UDON THA NI

KHON KAEN

R OIET

SURIN

NAKHON RATCHASIMA

LOP BURI

SUPHAN BURIKANCHANA BURI

BANGKOK ARANY A PR ATHET

CHANTHA BURISATTATHIP

PRACH UAP KHIRIK HAN

C HUMPHON

RAN ONG

NAKHONSI THAMMARAT

PHUKET

TRANG

SONGKHLA

NARATHIW AT

Change in mean state of rainfall (leading mode of PCA)(short-term & ENSO)


During the 6 strong La Niña years (1975,1985, 1988, 1995, 1996 and 1999), Rtotal and Rday were higher than normal.

PCA1 of Rtotal and Rday in Thailand tended to be greater than normal during negative (La Niña condition) MEI.


98 99 100 101 10 2 1 03 104 10 5

L atitude

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Lon

gitu

de

CHI ANG RAI

CHIAN G M AI

PHARE

NAN

UTTARADIT

PHITSAN ULOK

PHETC HABU N

NAKHON SAWAN

UDON THA NI

KHON KAEN

R OIET

SURIN

NAKHON RATCHASIMA

LOP BURI

SUPHAN BURIKANCHANA BURI

BANGKOK ARANY A PR ATHET

CHANTHA BURISATTATHIP

PRACH UAP KHIRIK HAN

C HUMPHON

RAN ONG

NAKHONSI THAMMARAT

PHUKET

TRANG

SONGKHLA

NARATHIW AT

Change in mean state of rainfall (leading mode of PCA)(short-term & ENSO)


During the 6 recent El Niño years (1972,1977, 1983, 1987, 1992 and 1997), Rtotal and Rday were lower than normal.

PAC1 of Rtotal and Rday in Thailand tended to be lower than normal during positive (El Niño condition) MEI.

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Change in mean state of vapor pressure

Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008

Change in extreme climate events in Thailand

Change in extreme (tail behaviors) of climate events

Statistical-based extremes(warm days/nights)

Event-driven extremes(Flood/Drought)

(Assessment of Extreme Weather Events : Risk & Vulnerability Analysis, CU and ERTC funded by TRF)

(Vulnerability Analysis and Risk Assessment of flood/drought in Thailand, ERTC)

Representing the events in the tail of distribution that occur infrequently.

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Change in extreme (tail behaviors) of temperature and rainfall

Cool nights and days (Tmax and Tmin <10th percentile)Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008



Warm nights and days (Tmax and Tmin >90th percentile)



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Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII)


Hotspot of temperature extreme


Trend significant at 95% 1Trend no significant 95% 0

Hotspot values =∑(all score)

0 157


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Hotspot of rainfall extreme



Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand

Goals:

Expected outcomes:

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Methodology

Provincial level

National level

Grassroots level

Flood/Drought Hotspot Mapping

Flood/Drought Index Analysis (SPI)Flood/Drought Data Collection

Socio-Economic Vulnerability Indices

Vulnerability & Risk Analysisin hotspots

Biophysical Vulnerability Social Vulnerability

Community-based adaptation(Indigenous knowledge + Sufficiency Economy Philosophy)


Vulnerability-based (bottom-up) approach

Past Present Future

Adaptation Options/means

VulnerabilityAdaptive capacity

based onhuman, socio-economic dimensions

(Equity, Technology, Infrastructure, Institutions, Education, Health, Environments)

Human Development Index (HDI)Environmental Vulnerability Index (ENI)Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)Water Poverty Index (WPI)

Understanding of past and present vulnerability/sensitivityIncrease in future adaptive capacity

Food/Drought Hazards and Disasters


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Historical records of drought/flood-affected areas in Thailand

Source: Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation

Hotspot mapping of drought/flood based on the records complied from the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Provincial Office

Flood frequency (2005-2007)

(2005)

(2006)

(2007)


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Hotspot mapping of drought/flood based on the records complied from the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Provincial Office

Drought frequency (2005-2007)


‘Drought Hotspot’Human Achievement Index (HAI)

HAI is composed of 8 indices-Health-Education-Employment-Income-Housing & Living Environment-Family & Community Life-Transportation & Communication-Participation


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Source Types of Indices

1. United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI), Human Achievement Index (HAI)

2. South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission (SOPAC)

Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI)

3. Global Leaders of Tomorrow Environmental Task Forces and the Universities of Yale and Columbia

Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)

4. Center for Ecology and Hydrology in Wallingford Water Poverty Index (WPI)

5. United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) Disaster Risk Index (DRI)

6. Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research Indicators of risk, vulnerability and adaptive capacity

A suite of vulnerability indices(community, provincial levels)


Community-based adaptation to drought/flood(Kula Ronghai Field)

Source: Kerdsuk, V., Khon Kean University

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Previous study carried by Khon Kean University under START Capacity Building

Action plan of community-based adaptation for flood-affected, drought-affected and flood-drought affected villages

ERTC

Khon Kean University


Villagers Local governments

ERTC & KKU

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Future plan & direction

Socio-economic-human-environment vulnerability assessment of climate extreme

in ‘Hotspot Areas’

Hotspot mapping of drought/flood disasters in Thailand

Hotspot mapping of rainfall/temperatures extreme events in Thailand

Climate-related Extreme

National level

Provincial level

Community level

Community-based adaptation/Climate resilient communities

Villager Volunteer Network

Indigenous knowledgeSufficiency Economy Philosophy

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Past Present Future

Vulnerability

Adaptive capacitybased on

human, socio-economic dimensions(Equity, Technology, Infrastructure,

Institutions, Education, Health)

Bottom up (Vulnerability-based) approach

World development

GHG

Global climate models

Impacts

Vulnerability

Global

Local

Top down (Impact-based) approach

Climate adaptation policy &Strategies

Future plan & direction

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