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Transcript of Voting III 4/3/2012. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of...
Voting III
4/3/2012
Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form
• Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:– identify and explain the role of formal and
informal institutions and their effect on policy. – to understand and interpret the United States
Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas.
– to assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without resorting to partisan bickering.
Office Hours and Readings
• Chapter 4 (pp. 110-129)• Chapter 5
• Office Hours– Today 11-2– Wednesday 10-2
DETERMINING POLITICAL OPINION
America is Obsessed with Polling
• Why Polls– Raise issues– Gauge support– Get specific opinions
• Everyone Uses them– Candidates– Media– Elected officials
The GOP
What is Sampling?
• selecting a representative part of a population
• To determine parameters of the whole population.
The Concept of Sampling• Blood Tests
• Food Tests
The Practicality of Sampling
• Time
• Money
• Size
How Can a Survey of 1000 People Represent 200 Million?
• Responses Cancel each other out
• No New opinions are added
PROBLEMS OF SAMPLING
No Sample is Perfect
• All samples have error
• Large Samples= Less Error
All Voters< Registered Voters< Likely Voters
Question Bias
• Leading Questions
• Double Barreled Questions
Liars
• Socially Acceptable Questions
• Always Remember Homer Simpson's Code of the Schoolyard– Don't tattle – Always make fun of those different from you. – Never say anything, unless you're sure everyone
feels exactly the same way you do.
Always Check
• Who sponsored the poll
• How they got the sample
• How big was the sample
IS GOVERNMENT RESPONSIVE TO PUBLIC OPINION
Do they Listen?
• Government responds to opinion 2/3 of the time
• Sometimes they do not listen to public opinion
Why Not?
• General vs. Intense opinion
• Voting vs. general public
• Opinion is only one form of participation
Opinions can change quickly
We Give answers to anything
We Know Why We Vote
BUT WHO DO WE VOTE FOR?
Very Simple
PARTY IDENTIFICATIONThe Long Term Factor
Party ID
• Psychological attachment to one of the parties
• Long Term Factor
• Best Predictor of Voting
• Influences other short-term factors
Cleveland Rocks
Party ID Rocks
2008 Vote by Party ID
The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008
• Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain
• There are more Democrats in the electorate
• Obama wins
ISSUE VOTINGThis is hard
Issue Voting is Hard
• We are clueless
• Too many issues
• We don’t trust or understand policy
Easy/Single Issue Voting
Most Important Issues in 2008
Retrospective Analysis
• Looking back at the economy
• Easier to do if there is an incumbent
The Economy
• The events of 9/14- Voters disagreed with McCain on the Economy
Economics
Economics
CANDIDATE APPRAISALSWe Vote for Who We Like
Party Image
• Impacts our views of the candidate
• Very important for prospective voting
• McCain has a terrible party image in 2008
The Republican Brand
The Third Term
Retrospective voting on Bush
• Bush is Unpopular
McCain Vs. Bush
• In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush
• In reality no way to distance himself from Bush
Candidate Image
• Try to create your own
• Use issues to your advantage
• Don’t Let the Media create one for you
Hope and Change
• A message that worked
• It meant everything and nothing at the same time
Change
• Randy Marsh on
– Change
– Change
Hope as a message
Change
Bad Images
THE ELECTION OF 2010
The Results
The Nationalized Election
• National factors trumped local factors for the third time
• This time around, these factors favored the GOP
• This Hurts Incumbents
Party ID Rules the Day
People do not like Congress
Issues and 2010
The Issues of 2010
THE ECONOMYThe Primary Issue
A Referendum on the Economy
Unemployment
Health Care Opinion Remained Divided
A Referendum on Obama
THE TEA PARTYThe X factor in 2010
The Tea Party Movement
• Unique in that they do not want anything from government
• Very Motivated
• Angry at Government
The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters
The Tea party was a Popular Movement
With Motivated Voters on Election Day
BETTING ON OBAMAThe odds in 2012
Campaign Finance
• $1,000,000,000
• Independent Expenditures as Well
• Any Republican must get at least 2/3 of this
The Electoral College
Popular on the Left
• Strong Support Among Democrats
• Very popular among key constituencies
• Policies are popular, and he is personally popular
Overall Popularity Close To 50%
Unemployment is Lower
GDP Growth
Figure 9.4 Presidential vote by income growth, 1948–2008
For the GOP to win, they need a candidate who can expand the
Republican Map
SOME NATIONS LOVE TO VOTEVoting in a Comparative Perspective
Why so high elsewhere?
• Compulsory voting
• Fewer Elections
• PR systems and MMD
Why Turnout Should Be High in the USA
• Easier To Register
• A National two-party system
• A better-educated population
Despite this, fewer Americans Vote! We call the Paradox of
Participation
TURNOUT: THE GOOD AND BAD
Why Low turnout is bad
• Groups who do not vote, get used by those that do
• Voting levels the playing field
• Voting is essential for democracy to succeed
Why Low Turnout is not that bad
• Low Turnout is actually a good thing
• People are not voting for the wrong candidate
• Stability in the System
• Voting is only one way of participation
Ways to Increase Turnout
• Continue to Lower Costs– Mandatory voting– Same Day Registration– Mail and Internet voting– Weekend Voting– Holiday Voting