Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential ElectionElection

• 59.6%59.6%

Who Voted in 2004?Who Voted in 2004?

• What are benefits of What are benefits of voting?voting?

• What are costs of What are costs of voting?voting?

• 2004 Presidential 2004 Presidential ElectionElection

• US Census Bureau,US Census Bureau,

• Voting and Registration Voting and Registration in the Election of in the Election of November 2004 November 2004

EducationEducation% reported voted

23.6

34.6

52.4

66.1

72.6

77.4

.Less than 9th grade

.9th to 12th grade, nodiploma

.High schoolgraduate

.Some college orassociate degree

.Bachelor's degree

.Advanced degree

IncomeIncome

36.5 39.145.2

49.454.3

62.368.1

74.177.8 78.3

.Les

s tha

n $10

,000

.$10,0

00 to

$14,9

99

.$15,0

00 to

$19,9

99

.$20,0

00 to

$29,9

99

.$30,0

00 to

$39,9

99

.$40,0

00 to

$49,9

99

.$50,0

00 to

$74,9

99

.$75,0

00 to

$99,9

99

.$100

,000 t

o $14

9,999

.$150

,000 a

nd ov

er

AgeAge% reported voted

41.9

52.2

66.6

70.8

66.7

.18 to 24 years

.25 to 44 years

.45 to 64 years

.65 to 74 years

.75 years and over

RaceRace

28

29.8

56.3

60.3

Latino

Asian

Black

White

Employment StatusEmployment Status

46.4

56.2

56.7

59.3

64.2

75.2

..Unemployed

.Not in labor force

..Private Industry

.Civilian labor force

..Self-employed

..GovernmentWorkers

Who Votes?Who Votes?

• Socioeconomic Status (SES) Socioeconomic Status (SES) ExplanationExplanation– voters with higher income and education have voters with higher income and education have

the civic skills to understand the value of the civic skills to understand the value of voting, the difference between the candidates.voting, the difference between the candidates.

– Policy ImplicationPolicy Implication

Educate & InformEducate & Inform

Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential ElectionsElections

8184 82

80

70

60

50

5760

51

6461 62

56 55 54 5450

56

50 50.9

59.6

4045505560657075808590

% voting

50.2%

35.4%

49.8%

34.0%

50.7%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

% of Americans Voting in National Elections

Voter Turnout in LA Gubernatorial Voter Turnout in LA Gubernatorial ElectionsElections

62.0%57.0%

80.0%

56.0%

1983 1987 1991 1995

Vote for the Crook, It’s Vote for the Crook, It’s Important Important

Turnout by Blue Collar Workers

90%79%

55%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sweden Germany US

95

90

87

80

86

86

81

79

76

75

71

61

54

54

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Australia

Italy

Denmark

Bulgaria

Germany

Greece

Costa Rica

Portugal

France

Britain

Japan

Russia

US

Switzerland

Average % Voting in National Elections, last 6 election cycles

SES ExplanationSES Explanation

• description or explanationdescription or explanation

• Alternative ExplanationsAlternative Explanations• Policy ImplicationsPolicy Implications• Political considerationsPolitical considerations

– Change the rules, change the electorateChange the rules, change the electorate– Change the electorate, change the Change the electorate, change the

outcomesoutcomes– Elected officials make the rulesElected officials make the rules

Voter RegistrationVoter Registration

Voter Turnout in Presidential Voter Turnout in Presidential ElectionsElections

8184 82

80

70

60

50

5760

51

6461 62

56 55 54 5450

56

50 50.9

59.6

4045505560657075808590

Percent registered (Citizen 18+)

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0

HAWAIIUTAH

CALIFORNIAWEST VIRGINIA

TENNESSEEGEORGIA

SOUTH CAROLINAIDAHO

KANSASVIRGINIA

TEXASDELAWARE

ILLINOISNEW HAMPSHIRE

OKLAHOMAWASHINGTON

OHIOMARYLAND

VERMONTWISCONSIN

RHODE ISLANDMICHIGAN

DISTRICT OFMISSOURI

SOUTH DAKOTAMAINE

Policy ImplicationsPolicy Implications

• Same Day/Election Day Registration Same Day/Election Day Registration (MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY)(MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY)

• Motor Voter RegistrationMotor Voter Registration

Same Day/Election Day Same Day/Election Day RegistrationRegistration

% Voting 2004

58.3 58.766 68.9

72 7376.7

-20

20

60

100

US ID WY NH ME WI MN

•(MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY) 5 of 7 top states in turnout(MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY) 5 of 7 top states in turnout

% Report Registered

25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0

.Less than 9th grade

.9th to 12th grade, nodiploma

.High school graduate

.Some college or associatedegree

.Bachelor's degree

.Advanced degree

Source: US Census, US Population Survey, 2004 Presidential Election

% Not registered

50.5 51.046.1

41.937.1

30.224.4

20.617.8 17.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

.Les

s tha

n $10,0

00

.$10,000

to $14

,999

.$15,000

to $19

,999

.$20,000

to $29

,999

.$30,000

to $39

,999

.$40,000

to $49

,999

.$50,000

to $74

,999

.$75,000

to $99

,999

.$100,0

00 to $

149,99

9

.$150,0

00 and o

ver

Least likely to be registeredLeast likely to be registered

• Young, mobile, less affluent, minorityYoung, mobile, less affluent, minority

• Ohio- just adopted same day voter Ohio- just adopted same day voter registrationregistration– 490,000 college students490,000 college students– Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer

Brunner Brunner

Source: Young voters,USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll, Sept. 18-28, 60+, Black, Latino, Sep 13, Gallup

Source: CNN Exit Polls, 2004 Presidential Election

Motor Voter RegistrationMotor Voter Registration

• register by mail, applying for a register by mail, applying for a driver's license, at all offices that driver's license, at all offices that provide public assistanceprovide public assistance

Impact of Motor VoterImpact of Motor Voter

• ““We find little evidence that early We find little evidence that early voting reforms increase turnout voting reforms increase turnout with the exception of VBM in with the exception of VBM in Oregon, and then only in Oregon, and then only in presidential elections. In midterm presidential elections. In midterm elections, none of the reforms has a elections, none of the reforms has a statistically significant impact on statistically significant impact on turnout….”turnout….”

Too Many ElectionsToo Many Elections

• 521,000 elected offices521,000 elected offices

• National, state, local, school, library, National, state, local, school, library, referendumsreferendums

• ..\..\..\..\toomanyelections.xlstoomanyelections.xls

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2006

Reason for Not Voting (% of answers)

27.3

12.4

11.5

10.7

9.1

7.3

7.2

5.7

3.9

2.5

2

0.6

Too busy

Illness or disability

Not interested

Out of town

Other reason

Did not like candidates

Don't know or refused

Forgot to vote

Registration problems

Inconvenient polling place

Transportation problems

Bad weather conditions

Why hold elections on Why hold elections on Tuesday?Tuesday?

• National HolidayNational Holiday

• Mail-in Voting Mail-in Voting

Electoral SystemElectoral System

• US- first past the post system US- first past the post system

• Europeans- proportional representation Europeans- proportional representation

• ConsequencesConsequences– fosters 2 partiesfosters 2 parties– hurts smaller partieshurts smaller parties– No pro-life party, green party, or African No pro-life party, green party, or African

American party American party – 148 candidates in CA recall election = 70% 148 candidates in CA recall election = 70%

turnout?turnout?

Lack of MobilizationLack of Mobilization

• 1876-1896, turnout in presidential 1876-1896, turnout in presidential elections averaged 80%elections averaged 80%

• Now, Unprecedented GOTV- 59%Now, Unprecedented GOTV- 59%

• Does it matter if you vote in New Does it matter if you vote in New York, Texas, or California? York, Texas, or California?

Voter ID LawsVoter ID Laws

• GA- voters to present either a GA- voters to present either a driver's license or a state-issued driver's license or a state-issued photo ID 2005photo ID 2005– 35$ available at DMV35$ available at DMV

Milwaukee Black Voters League FlierMilwaukee Black Voters League Flier

• ““if anyone in your family has ever if anyone in your family has ever been found guilty of anything, even a been found guilty of anything, even a traffic violation, you can't vote in the traffic violation, you can't vote in the presidential election. If you violate presidential election. If you violate any of these laws you can get ten any of these laws you can get ten years in prison and your children will years in prison and your children will get taken away from you." 2004get taken away from you." 2004

FelonFelon DisenfrDisenfranchisanchisementement

But…But…

Is Internet or E-Voting the Is Internet or E-Voting the solution to declining solution to declining

turnout?turnout?

Costs v. Benefits of VotingCosts v. Benefits of Voting

• CostsCosts– RegistrationRegistration– HasslesHassles– InformationInformation================SolutionsSolutions1.1. Easier registrationEasier registration2.2. E vote, mail in E vote, mail in

ballotsballots3.3. Group mobilizationGroup mobilization4.4. Fewer electionsFewer elections

• BenefitsBenefits– PsychicPsychic– PolicyPolicy

SolutionsSolutions1.1. Minority votersMinority voters2.2. Conservatives in Conservatives in

98’98’3.3. Reduce cynicism Reduce cynicism

about politicsabout politics4.4. Vote mattersVote matters

Should we be concerned Should we be concerned that only 50.7% of that only 50.7% of Americans voted?Americans voted?

low turnout NOT a low turnout NOT a problemproblem

• reflects contentment reflects contentment

• George Will “As more people are George Will “As more people are nagged to the polls, the caliber of the nagged to the polls, the caliber of the electorate declines. electorate declines.

• no difference between voters and no difference between voters and non-voters preferences non-voters preferences

• What happens with record turnout? What happens with record turnout?

2 Recent High Turnout 2 Recent High Turnout ElectionsElections

2003 CA Recall Election 1998 MN Gubernatorial Race

Low Turnout IS a problemLow Turnout IS a problem

• Voting pool is Voting pool is unrepresentativeunrepresentative of of nationnation– HMO bill of rightsHMO bill of rights vs vs

uninsureduninsured

% Reporting Voting in 2000

28.424.2

43.7

55

6467.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

18-20 21-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65+

% Reporting Voting in 2000

56.453.5

27.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

White Black Hispanic

% Reporting Voting in 2000

26.8

33.6

49.4

60.3

72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

8 years or less HS 1-3 years 4 years Some college BA or more

Decline of Social Capital Decline of Social Capital 1970-19951970-1995

Worked for political Worked for political partyparty

7%7% 2.82.8%%

Served as officer in Served as officer in clubclub

10%10% 6%6%

Attended ChurchAttended Church 42%42% 36%36%

Member of Institute Member of Institute of Architectsof Architects

41%41% 28%28%

Entertained at homeEntertained at home 14 14 99

Bowled in a leagueBowled in a league 69/ 69/ 10010000

31/ 31/ 10010000

TV Usage: “TV is my TV Usage: “TV is my primary form of primary form of entertainment”entertainment”

Strongly Strongly AgreeAgree

Strongly Strongly DisagreeDisagree

VolunteeredVolunteered 4.14.1 9.19.1

Letters writtenLetters written 1212 1818

Club meetingsClub meetings 55 99

Worked on Worked on community community projectproject

1.51.5 33

Gave finger to Gave finger to another driveranother driver

33 1.41.4