VILLAGEDEVELOPMENTFUNDININDONESIA:Publicevalua:onandSocialDevelopmentOutcome

SirojudinAbbas

SaifulMujaniResearchandConsul:ng,Jakarta-Indonesia

UdhornThani,August1-4,2017

NOTE: Draft for limited discussion. Please do not quote any information from this presentation without consent of the author

BACKGROUND•  TheGovernmentoftheRepublicIndonesialaunchedthe“Village

DevelopmentFund”(VDF)programin2015topromotesocial-economicdevelopmentatthevillagelevelandalleviateruralpoverty.Theprogramtargetsmorethan70,000poorvillages,mostlyinruralareas.

•  EachselectedvillagereceivedRp.278million(USD21,400)in2015andwasincreasedtoRp628juta(USD48,300)in2016.Thefundistransferreddirectlytovillage-communityaccountinseveralphasesa_ertheVillageHeadformallysubmiaedVillageBudgetandfinancialreportofthepreviousprogram.

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Ques:on•  Thispresenta:onrevealspreliminaryfindingsfrompublic

evalua:onsurveyabout“VillageDevelopmentFund”implementa:onusingdatafromthena:onalpublicopinionsurveyconductedinOctober2016byJakarta-BasedSaifulMujaniResearchandConsul:ng.

•  Thispresenta:onhighlightstheimportanceofpayingaaen:ontoensuringthequalityofprogramimplementa:ontopredictprogram’soutcome.UsingVDFexample,thispresenta:onsuggeststhat“people’sevalua:onontheimplementa:onoftheVDFisagoodpredictorforsocialdevelopmentoutcome.”

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PROGRAM

Concept:Village-DrivenDevelopment

S:mulateIncomegenera:ngac:vi:es

EnhancesCollec:veac:on/

Solidarity

GrowCommunity

Assets

•  Every eligible village receives direct “Village Development Fund” from central government

•  For better targeted development priorities

•  Participatory in planning and implementing development projects

•  Improved accountaibilty and transpatency

•  Responsible Village: decentralization of community development and poverty reduction

•  Creating locality-based resources

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VillageDevelopmentFund

6

Source: Ministry of Village Development and Transmigration, 2017

AchievementsSofar

7

Source: Ministry of Village Development and Transmigration, 2017

RESEARCH

Methodology •  Survey population is the population of the Republic of Indonesia who are

eligible for participating in general election: those who are 17 years of age, or those who have been married by the time this survey was conducted.

•  1220 Respondents were selected from the population using multistage random sampling.

•  This report analyzed 745 respondents who live in rural areas that were targeted by “Village Development Fund” program. Margin of error +/- 3,7% at 95% of confidence level with simple random assumption.

•  Respondents were interviewed face to face by well-trained interviewers. •  Quality control was done by randomly selected and revisited 20% of

interviewed sample. •  Interviews were conducted in Oktober 2016.

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Village population at national level

Village at each municipalities/cities were selected randomly proportional to the population

In each neighborhood, 2 households were selected randomly

In each selected households one member of the family was selected randomly (male or female)

Ds 1 … Ds n

Municipality 1

Ds 1 … Ds m

City 2

… …

RT1 RT2 RT3 …. RT5

KK1 KK2

Male Female

In each selected village 5 neighborhood were selected randomly

Flow chat Sampling Procedure

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FINDING

Have you ever heard about ”Village Development Fund” supported by the government? (only for respondents who live in rural areas)

55.8

44.250.1 49.9

62.8

37.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Yes No

Mar'16Jun'16Okt'16

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Knew/heard about VDF from the Government?

If YES, in your village, what kind of activities that were funded using ”Village Development Fund”? (can be more than one answer. This question intended only for

respondents living in rural areas)

2

8

2

3

9

8

18

23

21

28

86

5

10

2

1

4

7

16

25

19

26

86

0

14

1

2

3

4

17

18

23

26

86

0 20 40 60 80 100

NA

Others

Building energy sources such as micro hydros, buigas, solarpanel

Building facilities for fishermen activities (pier, fish market)

Developing village-level Cooperatives

Skill training, such as entrepreunership, craft

Improving educational facilities, such as community learningcenver, kindergarten and playground

Building health-supporting facilities at village

Building rain water catchment facilities and clean water facilities

Building and improving irrigation channels

Developing and improving village roads and bridges

Okt'16Jun'16Mar'16

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...continue: If yes, how do people use the fund?

In general, has this program been implemented well in your village?

60.4

18.7 20.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Yes Not yet Do not Know

Okt'16

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People’s Evaluation on the Implmenentaiton of Village Development Fund

Op:mismaboutFamily’sEconomicCondi:on

How do you see your family's economic condition in general next year: whether it will be worsening, just the same, better or much better compared to the current

condition? … (%)

15

21

58

7 9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Much worse Worse No changes Better Much better Do notknow

Okt'16

15

Mee:ngbasicneeds(food)

Compared to last year, in meeting basic needs (such as food staples), do you feel that it is easier, more difficult, or just the same? … (%)

16

16

49

34

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

Easier More difficult Just the same Do not know

Okt'16

Mee:ngtheneedforhealthservices

Compared to last year, reagarding meeting your health needs, do you feel it is easier, more difficult or just the same?… (%)

17

38

26

33

2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Easier More difficult Just the same Do not know

Okt'16

Mee:ngEduca:onalNeed

Compared to last year, regarding meeting your educational/school need for you and/or your family, do you feel it is easier, more difficult or just the same ? … (%)

18

36

29 29

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Easier More difficult Just the same Do not know

Okt'16

Op:mismonthefamily’seconomicCondi:onaccordingtopeople’sevalua:onintheimplementa:onofVillage

DevelopmentFund

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Worse off Just the same Better N/A TOTAL

YES 60.4 5.1 18.4 68.2 8.2 100.0NO 18.7 9.4 14.4 66.9 9.4 100.0N/A 20.9 4.5 26.9 59.6 9.0 100.0

How do you see your family's economic condition in general next year: whether it will be worsening, just the same, better or

much better compared to the current condition? BASE

Op:mismandimprovementinmee:ngbasicneeds,healthservicesandeduca:onaccordingtopeople’sevalua:onontheimplementa:onofVillageDevelopmentFundProgram.

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Much Better Worse

Just the same N/A TOTAL

Yes 60.4 22.9 43.1 34.0 0.0 100.0Not yet 18.7 12.9 51.8 35.3 0.0 100.0N/A 20.9 9.6 55.8 33.3 1.3 100.0

Yes 60.4 43.8 22.4 31.8 2.0 100.0Not yet 18.7 32.4 29.5 36.7 1.4 100.0N/A 20.9 29.5 34.6 30.1 5.8 100.0

Yes 60.4 43.8 25.3 27.1 3.8 100.0Not Yet 18.7 25.9 35.3 31.7 7.2 100.0N/A 20.9 29.5 30.1 28.2 12.2 100.0

Meeting basic needs

Access to health services

Meeting educational needs/school

Base

Tes:ngtherela:onship•  Alinierregressionprocedureisusedtoexaminetheeffectsof

people’sevalua:onontheimplementa:onofVDFon4(four)socialdevelopmentvariables.

1.  Doesevalua:onontheVDFimplementa:onhavesignificanteffectonpeople’sop:mismaboutimprovementinfamilyeconomiccondi:on?

2.  Doesevalua:onontheVDFimplementa:onsignificantlyaffectpeople’spercep:onontheirabilityinmee:ngbasicconsump:onneeds?

3.  Doesevalua:onontheVDFimplementa:onsignificantlyaffectpeople’spercep:onontheirabilityinmee:ngeduca:onalneeds?

4.  Doesevalua:onontheVDFimplementa:onsignificantlyaffectpeople’spercep:onontheirabilityinmee:nghealthneeds?

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CodingVariable

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NO Variabel Coding/Keterangan

1 Evaluation6on6VDF6Implementation

(nilai_danadesa)2 People's6optimism6about6familys6economy6next6year

(ekonomi_rt)3

Optimism6in6meeting6basid6need,6health6and6education6

(kebutuhan_sembako,4kebutuhan_berobat,4kebutuhan_pendidikan)4 RuralIurban6(pedesaan/rural) 1=Rural,40=Urban45 JavaINon6Java6(jawa_luarjawa) 1=Java,40=Non4Java6 Age6(usia) In4year7 Education6

(pendidikan)8 Income6

(pendapatan)Income4in4scale441A17:41=Under44Rp.42004thousand,417=More4than4Rp.4204million

Education4in4scale441A10:41=Never4been4to4school,410=College4degree4or4higher4

1=More4difficult,42=Just4the4same/NA,43=Much4better/easier

1=Not4good,42=4Do4not4Know/NA,43=Yes,4good

1=Much4worse,42=worse,43=Just4the4same/NA,44=Better,45=Much4better

1.Op:mismonFamily’sEconomicImprovementY:Peopleop:mismonfamily’seconomyinayearaheadX:Evalua:ononVDF+Demography

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N 745R2 0.076

Evaluation on the implementation of Village Development Fund (controlled by demographic factors) does not have effect on people’s optimism on their family’s economic condition in the

year ahead.

Coefficientsa

3.466 .166 .000.045 .033 .170

-.006 .052 .914.027 .058 .644.299 .054 .000

-.007 .002 .001.017 .013 .196.019 .008 .021

(Constant)nilai_danadesagender_lelakipedesaanjawa_luarjawausiapendidikanpendapatan

Model1

B Std. Error

UnstandardizedCoefficients

Sig.

Dependent Variable: ekonomi_rta.

2.Mee:ngBasicNeedsY:Mee:ngbasicneedstodaycomparedtolastyearX:Evalua:ononVDF+Demography

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N 745R2 0.044

Coefficientsa

1.296 .177 .000.097 .035 .006.094 .055 .091.187 .062 .002.045 .057 .431.001 .002 .806.026 .014 .063

-.021 .009 .016

(Constant)nilai_danadesagender_lelakipedesaanjawa_luarjawausiapendidikanpendapatan

Model1

B Std. Error

UnstandardizedCoefficients

Sig.

Dependent Variable: kebutuhan_sembakoa.

Evaluation on the implementation of Village Development Fund (controlled by demographic factors) has statistically significant effect on people’s perception that their ability in meeting basic

needs currently better than it was last year.

3.Mee:nghealthneedsY:Mee:ngtheneedforaccesstomedicalservicesnowcomparedtolastyearX:Evalua:onontheimplementa:onofVDP+Demography

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N 745R2 0.052

Coefficientsa

1.643 .185 .000.104 .037 .005.060 .058 .304.095 .065 .142

-.245 .060 .000.003 .002 .142.031 .015 .034

-.001 .009 .899

(Constant)nilai_danadesagender_lelakipedesaanjawa_luarjawausiapendidikanpendapatan

Model1

B Std. Error

UnstandardizedCoefficients

Sig.

Dependent Variable: kebutuhan_berobata.

Evaluation on the implementation of Village Development Fund (controlled by demographic factors) has significant effects on people’s perception about their ability in meeting their need for

health services needs is currently improved than it was last year.

4.Mee:ngeduca:onalneedY:Mee:ngeduca:onalneedcurrentlycomparedtolastyear’sX:Evalua:ononVDFImplementa:on+Demography

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N 745R2 0.054

Coefficientsa

1.553 .187 .000.124 .037 .001.096 .059 .103.167 .065 .011

-.181 .060 .003.004 .002 .072.004 .015 .784

-.002 .009 .825

(Constant)nilai_danadesagender_lelakipedesaanjawa_luarjawausiapendidikanpendapatan

Model1

B Std. Error

UnstandardizedCoefficients

Sig.

Dependent Variable: kebutuhan_pendidikana.

Evaluation on the implementation of Village Development Fund (controlled by demographic factors) has significant effect on people’s perception that their ability in meeting educational

needs currently better than it was last year.

CONCLUSION

•  Thisstudysupportsearlierstudiesthathighlightstheimportanceofensuringgoodimplementa:onprocessandprocedureindevelopmentprojectstoachieveposi:vedevelopmentoutcomes.

•  Indonesiangovernmenthasspentrela:velylargeamountofmoneytosupportVDF.Officialreportdemonstratedrespectablephysicalevidencesontheprogramresults.Yet,onlyabout63%ofruralpopula:onawareoftheVDF.

•  Outofthosewhowereawareoftheprogram,60%valuedposi:velytheimplementa:onofVDFintheirrespec:vevillages.Regressionanalysissuggestspeople’sevalua:onontheimplementa:onofVDFcouldbeagoodpredictorforseveraldevelopmentoutcomes.

•  Moreanaly:caleffortsareneededtofurtherexaminetherela:onships.

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Thankyou