Venezuelan Macroeconomic Outlook (Updated, May 2010)

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Transcript of Venezuelan Macroeconomic Outlook (Updated, May 2010)

  • 1. Venezuela Macroeconomic Outlook Exchange rate regime, risk and uncertainties Miguel ngel Santos www.miguelangelsantos.blogspot.com Twitter: @miguelsantos12 miguel.santos@iesa.edu.ve Venezuela Macroeconomic Outlook, May 2010 - Miguel ngel Santos
  • 2. 1 Macroeconomic results by year-end 2009 2 What has happened so far in the first quarter? 3 Exchange rate arrangements, risks and uncertainties 4 What is likely to happen? Venezuela Macroeconomic Outlook, May 2010 - Miguel ngel Santos
  • 3. In 2009 average oil price for the Venezuelan basket nose-dived 34%... Over Jan-April 2010 oil price bounced back to an average of $71.7 per barrel... Precio Petrleo - Cesta Venezolana 140 Precio Promedio (Enero 1998 - Abril 2010) Cesta Venezolana: 120 1999: 16,2 2000: 26,0 100 2001: 20,2 2002: 22,2 2003: 25,7 80 2004: 33,6 2005: 46,0 2006: 56,4 60 2007: 64,7 2008: 86,5 40 2009: 57,0 2010: 71,7 20 Valor Nominal Valor Real (Base: Dic-07) 0 Ene 1998 Jul 1998 Ene 1999 Jul 1999 Ene 2000 Jul 2000 Ene 2001 Jul 2001 Ene 2002 Jul 2002 Ene 2003 Jul 2003 Ene 2004 Jul 2004 Ene 2005 Jul 2005 Ene 2006 Jul 2006 Ene 2007 Jul 2007 Ene 2008 Jul 2008 Ene 2009 Jul 2009 Ene 2010 Fuente: Ministerio de Energa y Petrleo Venezuela Macroeconomic Outlook, May 2010 - Miguel ngel Santos
  • 4. Venezuelan exports collapsed 40%: 39% oil exports (volume effect) and 44% non-oil exports Exportaciones Petroleras y No Petroleras (Millones de Dlares - 2000-2009) 100.000 Petroleras No Petroleras 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Venezuela Macroeconomic Outlook, May 2010 - Miguel ngel Santos
  • 5. Real oil exports per capita fell 43%, but from a historic stand-point are still at their highest level in the previous 25 years (excluding 2005-2008) Exportaciones Petroleras (en dlares de 2009) Embargo petrolero de pases a EEU - Guerra de Yom Kippur 100,000 5,000 92,693 Salida del Sha de Exportaciones Petroleras (millones de dlares de 2009) 90,000 4,500 Exportaciones Petroleras per Cpita (dlares de 2009) Irn - Inicio de la Revolucin 3,960 de Khomeini 80,000 4,000 Comienza Guerra 3,327 70,000 3,215 Irn-Iraq 3,500 60,000 3,000 54,201 50,000