Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes...

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Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife La Grande, Oregon

Transcript of Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes...

Page 1: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery

Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon

Richard W. Carmichael and Tim HoffnagleOregon Department of Fish and Wildlife

La Grande, Oregon

Page 2: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Presentation Outline

• Management issues

• History of straying into the Deschutes River Basin

• Study objectives and methods

• Stock specific stray rate comparisons

• Stock specific temporal and spatial straying patterns

• Factors influencing straying

• Summary and conclusions

Page 3: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Management Issues

• Mid Columbia steelhead listed as threatened under Federal ESA with the Deschutes population considered an important component of the ESU.

• Hatchery strays comprise a substantial proportion of the harvest and recoveries at hatchery collection sites.

• Deschutes steelhead population considered at high risk of extinction due to abundance of stray hatchery fish (Chilcote 2001).

Page 4: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Management Issues

• NMFS Hatchery Biop Conservation Recommendations for ODFW include “work with other fisheries managers to address the problems of Snake River Steelhead straying into the Deschutes River”.

• Oregon’s Mid-Columbia River Steelhead Recovery Plan identifies Snake River hatchery steelhead strays as a primary threat to the Deschutes and John Day steelhead populations.

• ICTRT viability assessments rate the spawner composition as high risk for Deschutes population because of the high proportion of out-of-DPS stray spawners.

Page 5: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Origin of Steelhead Escapement Above Sherars Falls

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

YEAR

EST

IMA

TE

D E

SCA

PEM

EN

T

Wild Total Hatchery

Page 6: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Estimated Escapement of Wild, Deschutes Hatchery,and Stray Hatchery Steelhead above Sherars Falls

(ODFW 2001)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

82-83 85-86 88-89 91-92 94-95 97-98 00-01

Run Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Fis

h

.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Per

cen

t S

tray

s

Strays

Deschutes Hatchery

Wild

Percent Strays

Page 7: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Recent 10-Year Average Proportion of Natural Spawners That Were Snake River

Strays (ICTRT)

Population Spawner Abundance

Natural Hatchery

Snake River Hatchery Stray

Proportion

Deschutes River Eastside

975 526

35%

Deschutes River Westside

337 100

29%

Lower Mainstem

John Day River

1620 180

10%

North Fork John Day River

1601 139

8%

Umatilla River 1398 74

5%

Page 8: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Objectives

• Assess the magnitude of straying and the origin of Snake River hatchery steelhead strays in the Deschutes River.

• Determine stray rates into the Deschutes River for all Snake River hatchery steelhead stocks.

• Characterize distribution (time and space) of each stock of Snake River hatchery strays within the Deschutes River Basin.

• Examine factors that may influence straying rates and patterns.

Definition: We defined a Deschutes River stray as any fish recovered in the Deschutes River.

Page 9: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Methods

• Assemble and analyze CWT release and recovery data for all Snake River steelhead hatchery releases.

• Develop mark-to-unmark expansion factors to account for all production releases.

• Calculate stray rates into the Deschutes River by code, release location, and run year for each Snake River hatchery stock.

• Calculate total hatchery contributions to the Deschutes River by run year for each stock and basin of release.

• Compare stray rates among Snake River steelhead hatchery stocks.

Page 10: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks

Lyons Ferry

Dworshak B

Sawtooth A

Pahsimeroi A

Hells Canyon A

Imnaha River

Wallowa Hatchery

Page 11: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Deschutes River

White River

Shitike

Springs

Warm

Bakeoven

Buck

TroutCree

k

River

Creek

Hollow

Creek

Deschutes

River

Round ButteDam

C o l u m b i a River

Pelton Dam

ReregulatingDam

Kilometers

0 10 3020

Mouth (RK 0)

Kloan (RK 11)

Pelton Trap (RK 161)

Sherars Falls (RK 69)

Round ButteFish Hatchery

Warm Springs NationalFish Hatchery (RK 154)

Macks Canyon (RK 39)

Page 12: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Coded-Wire Tag Groups

Brood year

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

N = 24 / 48

Dworshak B

Wallowa Hatchery

Sawtooth A

Pahsimeroi A

Lyons Ferry

Imnaha River

Hells Canyon A

N = 167 / 275

N = 14 / 37

N = 34 / 38

N = 85 / 180

N = 48 / 79

N = 111 / 113

Page 13: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Coded-Wire Tags

Stock YearsNumber tagged

Totalreleased

Percenttagged

Dworshak B 1974-1997 4,429,340 36,041,922 12.3

Hells Canyon A 1985-1995 476,375 3,911,455 12.2

Imnaha River 1985-1997 897,287 2,691,045 33.3

Lyons Ferry 1987-1997 534,813 684,381 78.1

Pahsimeroi A 1976-1997 2,495,772 12,905,758 19.3

Sawtooth A 1985-1997 1,036,204 6,736,447 15.4

Wallowa Hatchery

1980-1997 3,041,277 9,621,618 31.6

Page 14: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Annual Stray Rates – Dworshak B

Run year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Des

ch

ute

s R

ive

r s

tra

y r

ate

(pe

rcen

t o

f to

tal r

ec

ov

eri

es)

0

10

20

30

40

Mean(+1 SD)

Page 15: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Annual Stray Rates – Hells Canyon A

Run year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Des

ch

ute

s R

ive

r s

tra

y r

ate

(pe

rcen

t o

f to

tal r

ec

ov

eri

es)

0

10

20

30

40

Mean(+1 SD)

NRNR NR NR NR NR NR NR

Page 16: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Annual Stray Rates – Imnaha River

Run year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Des

ch

ute

s R

ive

r s

tra

y r

ate

(pe

rcen

t o

f to

tal r

ec

ov

eri

es)

0

10

20

30

40

Mean(+1 SD)

NRNR

Page 17: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Annual Stray Rates – Lyons Ferry

Run year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Des

ch

ute

s R

ive

r s

tra

y r

ate

(pe

rcen

t o

f to

tal r

ec

ov

eri

es)

0

10

20

30

40

Mean(+1 SD)

NRNR

Page 18: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Annual Stray Rates – Pahsimeroi A

Run year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Des

ch

ute

s R

ive

r s

tra

y r

ate

(pe

rcen

t o

f to

tal r

ec

ov

eri

es)

0

10

20

30

40

Mean(+1 SD)

NR NR

Page 19: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Annual Stray Rates – Sawtooth A

Run year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Des

ch

ute

s R

ive

r s

tra

y r

ate

(pe

rcen

t o

f to

tal r

ec

ov

eri

es)

0

10

20

30

40

Mean(+1 SD)

NRNR

Page 20: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Annual Stray Rates – Wallowa Hatchery

Run year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Des

ch

ute

s R

ive

r s

tra

y r

ate

(pe

rcen

t o

f to

tal r

ec

ov

eri

es)

0

10

20

30

40

Mean(+1 SD)

NRNR

Page 21: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Deschutes River Stray RatesAll Run Years

Stock

DB HC IR LF PA SA WH

Str

ay r

ate

(per

cen

t o

f to

tal r

eco

veri

es)

0

5

10

15

20

aab

bc

dcd

cd

d

1989 & 1993-1997 Run Years

Stock

DB HC IR LF PA SA WH0

5

10

15

20

Page 22: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Distribution – Time and Space

Month

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

Per

cen

t

0

20

40

60

80

100

River kilometer

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Per

cen

t

0

20

40

60

80

100

Spawn Time

Spawn Area

Page 23: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Distribution – Dworshak B

Month

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

Riv

er k

ilom

eter

0

50

100

150

Mouth

Macks

Sherars Falls

WSNFHPelton trap

Spawning Area/ Season

3.8%

Page 24: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Distribution – Hells Canyon A

Month

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

Riv

er k

ilom

eter

0

50

100

150

Mouth

Macks

Sherars Falls

WSNFHPelton trap

Spawning Area/ Season

14.7%

Page 25: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Distribution – Imnaha River

Month

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

Riv

er k

ilom

eter

0

50

100

150

Mouth

Macks

Sherars Falls

WSNFHPelton trap

Spawning Area/ Season

4.1%

Page 26: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Distribution – Lyons Ferry

Month

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

Riv

er k

ilom

eter

0

50

100

150

Mouth

Macks

Sherars Falls

WSNFHPelton trap

Spawning Area/ Season

0%

Page 27: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Distribution – Pahsimeroi A

Month

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

Riv

er k

ilom

eter

0

50

100

150

Mouth

Macks

Sherars Falls

WSNFHPelton trap

Spawning Area/ Season

7.5%

Page 28: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Distribution – Sawtooth A

Month

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

Riv

er k

ilom

eter

0

50

100

150

Mouth

Macks

Sherars Falls

WSNFHPelton trap

Spawning Area/ Season

2.4%

Page 29: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Distribution – Wallowa Hatchery

Month

JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

Riv

er k

ilom

eter

0

50

100

150

Mouth

Macks

Sherars Falls

WSNFHPelton trap

Spawning Area/ Season

30.7%

Page 30: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Potential Factors Influencing Straying

– Incubation, Rearing, and Release Strategies– Release Location– Stock Origin– Seaward Migration Pathways (Inriver –Transported)– Columbia River and Deschutes Water

Temperatures

Page 31: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Significantly Correlated Stray Rates

Imnaha0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Wal

low

a

0

5

10

15

20

25

30r = 0.6127; P < 0.05

Pahsimeroi0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Wal

low

a

0

10

20

30

40r = 0.5644; P < 0.02

Sawtooth0 5 10 15 20 25

Wal

low

a

0

5

10

15

20

25

30r = 0.8562; P < 0.01

Pahsimeroi0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Saw

too

th

0

5

10

15

20

25

30r = 0.9667; P < 0.001

Page 32: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

BROOD YEAR

STR

AY R

ATE (

%)

Big Canyon FacilityWallowa Fish Hatchery

Release Location InfluenceStray Rates into Mid-Columbia Basin Tributaries, 1990-2005 Brood Years

Page 33: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Adult PIT-tag Stray Analysis2007-08 and 08-09 Run Years

NOAA transport tag groups• Released at Lower Granite Dam as smolts in 2005, 2006, and 2007• Return to the river group (RR)• Barge transported group (BR)

Queried adult detections at Bonneville (N)

Compared proportion of Bonneville adults that were detected as strays from barged and return to river groups

• z-tests: statistical test to compare detection rates of two groups (RR vs. BR or hatchery vs. natural)

• John Day River: McDonald Ford• Deschutes River: Sherars Falls

– Unknown detection efficiency at the Deschutes River John Day sites

Page 34: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Ford

s

Page 35: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Adult Steelhead Detections of Transport Study Groups - 2007-08 and 2008-09 Run Years

Smolt Group

Bonneville Dam (N) John Day River Deschutes River

Hatchery Wild All Hatchery Wild % Hatchery Wild %

Barged2007-08

In-River 2007-08

918

151

343

77

1,261

228

29

1

17

0

3.6

0.4

64

1

10

0

5.9

0.4

Barged2008-09

In-River2008-09

1584

152

612

87

2196

239

23

0

15

0

1.7

0.0

144

4

40

0

8.4

1.6

Page 36: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Stray Rates Into the Deschutes for Transported and In-River Migrants

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2007-08 H 2007-08 wild 2008-09 H 2008-09 wild

Transport

In-River

Run Year

%

Page 37: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Stray Rates Into the John Day for Transported and In-River Migrants

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2007-08 H 2007-08 wild 2008-09 H 2008-09 wild

Transport

In-River

Run Year

%

Page 38: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Statistical Results (z-tests)

Returning adults that were transported as smolts (BR) stray at greater rates than those that were allowed to migrate the river corridor (RR).

• % detections of BR fish > % RR fish in John Day, P = 0.003• % detections of BR fish > % RR fish in Deschutes, P < 0.001

Transported hatchery adults stray at greater rates into the Deschutes River than transported natural adults, P < 0.001

Similar rates of straying of transported hatchery and natural adults into the John Day River. There was no significant difference, P = 0.19

Page 39: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Summary

• Snake River hatchery strays are considered a significant threat to viability of Oregon’s Mid-C steelhead populations, model results indicate reduction in hatchery spawners will provide a significant productivity improvement.

• We observed highly variable patterns in stray rates, distribution, and timing between stocks.

• Snake River hatchery steelhead contribute substantially to tribal and sport fisheries in the Deschutes River.

• Wallowa Hatchery and Hells Canyon A steelhead had the highest mean stray rate into the Deschutes River.

Page 40: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Summary

• Wallowa Hatchery and Hells Canyon A steelhead were the stocks that had the highest proportion and number recovered in spawning areas during the spawning season.

• There were some strong correlations in annual stray rates among stocks.

• Release locations influence stray rates.

• Two years of observations from the Deschutes and John Day rivers pit-tag monitoring indicate that adults, transported as smolts, stray at significantly higher rates than adults that were in-river migrants and these adults are the primary source of strays in Oregon’s Mid-C steelhead populations.

Page 41: Variation in Straying Patterns and Rates of Snake River Hatchery Steelhead Stocks in the Deschutes River Basin, Oregon Richard W. Carmichael and Tim Hoffnagle.

Summary

• Maintaining a reduced number of Snake River hatchery smolts that are transported will contribute significantly to recovery of Mid-C steelhead in Oregon and improve returns to the LSRCP area.