Vaibhav Chaturvedi Poonam Nagar Koti Anjali Ramakrishnan ... · Ashok Srinivas (Prayas Energy...
Transcript of Vaibhav Chaturvedi Poonam Nagar Koti Anjali Ramakrishnan ... · Ashok Srinivas (Prayas Energy...
© Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2018
Vaibhav ChaturvediPoonam Nagar KotiAnjali Ramakrishnan Chordia
11th IAMC Annual MeetingSeville, Spain
14th November 2018
CEEW – Among South Asia’s leading policy research institutions
Energy Access Renewables
Low‐Carbon Pathways
Technology, Finance, & Trade
Industrial Sustainability & Competitiveness
Risks & Adaptation
Power Sector
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The Larger Context
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• Nationally Determined Contribution and Mid‐Century Strategy– Together these intend to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement– A lot has changed since October 2015, Could there be scenarios under which NDC
targets would not be achieved?
• Uncertainties– Lack of literature on key uncertainties for India’s energy and climate policy
• Sustainable Development and National Priorities– Could a stringent climate policy impact sustainable development and national
priorities?
Research Objectives
• Evolution of electricity generation mix under an uncertain future and implication for progress towards the NDC target of 40% share of non‐fossil sources in electricity generation capacity
• Evolution of long‐term carbon dioxide emissions under an uncertain future and implication for progress towards the NDC target of 33‐35% reduction in emissions intensity of India’s GDP between 2005 and 2030
• Insights for India’s ‘Mid‐Century Strategy’• Aligning India’s climate policy with sustainable development and priorities
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Electricity generation
Emissions and Emissions Intensity
Mid‐Century Strategy and Sustainable Development
Methodological approach: Characterising uncertainties
Defining uncertainty: “any deviation from the unachievable ideal of completely deterministic knowledge of the relevant system” (Walker, 2003)
• Large bunch of scenarios spanning key uncertainties• Technology cost pathways
– 2 cost pathways each for coal, gas and nuclear – 3 cost pathways each for solar and wind– 72 unique pathways (combination of technology costs) under each economic growth pathways
• Economic growth pathways– 3 economic growth pathways
• 216 unique pathways• 6 additional scenarios for testing uncertainties related to energy efficiency
and energy demand behaviour in end use sectors
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Global Change Assessment Model‐ IIM Ahmedabad version
• Assumptions based on inputs by experts from MNRE, CEA, and NTPC
• Cost of integration included (though there is no India specific detailed study on this topic)
• Transparency of key assumptions6
RESULTS
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High GDP Growth Sc
Medium GDP Growth Sc
Low GDP Growth Sc
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Generation - Nuclear
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Generation - Wind
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Generation - Coal
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Generation - Gas
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Generation - Solar
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era
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t-H
ours Coal Gas Solar
Nuclear Wind
Coal does not peak under any sc
Gas, Nuclear and
Wind have only limited role to play
Electricity generation technology outlook
Electricity generation technology outlook‐WITHOUT VRE Integration Cost
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Elec
tric
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erat
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in T
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High GDP Growth Sc
Medium GDP Growth Sc
Low GDP Growth Sc
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Generation - Solar
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Generation - Nuclear
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Generation - CoalCoal Gas Solar
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Storyline based scenarios VERSUS Uncertainty Assessment
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Exa‐Joules
Electricity Generation‐High Non‐Fossil Cost Low Fossil Cost Sc
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Exa‐Joules
Electricity Generation‐High Fossil Cost Low Non‐Fossil Cost Sc
Coal
Solar
• Different underlying technology cost assumptions will give us different perspectives ofthe future
• Uncertainty assessment is a key tool for getting robust insights
Is there room for enhancing India’s NDC?
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• Cost of integration appears to be a key uncertainty
• Lack of reform in India’s power sector is going to be a big bottleneck
0%
10%
20%
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40%
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100%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
68%
48%
84%
57%
73%
58%
Industrial sector emissions are going to be critical
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• Share of electricity sector and industrial sector in India’s CO2 emissions would be 40% and 32% respectively in 2050, transport only 19%
• Electricity’s share in the industrial sector’s fuel mix is going to be critical, currently it is less than 17%
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Energy sector carbon
dioxide
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s in M
tCO2
Electricity Industry+ Transportation Buildings Other
Energy related emissions across sectors in the Reference scenario
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stry+
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stry+
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stry+
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sportation
Buildings
2015 2030 2050
Fuel con
sumption in m
toe
Biomass
Natural Gas
Oil Products
Coal
Electricity
Fuel consumption by end use sector in the Reference scenario
Will 33‐35% EI reduction be achieved under all scenarios?
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• EI of GDP relative to 2005 declines by 48‐54% across all 216 scenarios by 2030, and by 70‐81% by 2050
• Highly sensitive to developments in the industrial sector‐ high energy demand growth (Make In India), lower rate of energy efficiency improvements, and small increase in the share of electricity increases EI of GDP
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Index
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The pace of transformation required for a 2 DegC consistent pathway is going to be huge
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• Non‐fossil energy capacity increases to 98% in 2050, for a 2 DegC compatible pathway
• The share of electricity in the industrial sector increases to 55% in 2050
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Cap_
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Cap_
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Industry+ Transportation Buildings
Fuel consum
ption
in mtoe
Biomass
NaturalGas
OilProducts
Coal
Electricity
Electricity generation increases, mix changes
Energy demand declines, electricity’s share increases
A matrix for understanding ‘Sustainable Development’ synergies and trade‐offs?
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Reference Sc
Total Emissions 6785Per capita emissions 4.09
Per capita urban residential electricity
consumption1.38
Per capita rural residential electricity
consumption0.46
Electricity Cost Average generation cost for new investments 2.63
Total jobs related to energy generation
sector13.10
Wind related jobs 0.35Ground mounted solar
jobs 5.77
Solar PV module manufacturing jobs 4.35
Coal 2.43Gas 0.02
Nuclear 0.17
Water Water withdrawal- Electricity 8.28
Land Requirement 17398PV 8366
CSP 63Wind 8350
Coal, oil and gas 619
Coal Coal consumption (2021-50) 37.80
Jobs
Land
Emissions
Electricity Access
CEEW Synergies and Trade‐Off Matrix Cap_2030 Sc
1663 MtCO2
1.00 tCO2/capita
1.41 MWh/capita
0.46 MWh/capita
2.31 INR/kWh (2015 prices)
27.51 Million FTE
0.36 Million FTE
15.20 Million FTE
11.45 Million FTE
0.15 Million FTE0.00 Million FTE0.34 Million FTE
2.13 Billion Cubic Metres
31235 Thousand Acres22024 Thousand Acres
173 Thousand Acres8574 Thousand Acres464 Thousand Acres
18.15 Billion tonnes
To summarise
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• Uncertainty based assessment helps in deriving a robust understanding of the future
• Our assessment shows that solar is going to grow hugely, but this is very sensitive to the cost of integration and who bears this cost
• Industrial sector is where some important uncertainties are present
Power Sector Reforms
Integration Cost and Market Design
Electrification of Industrial Sector
Need for India specific study
Need for assessment of decarbonisation strategies on jobs and competitiveness
Acknowledgem
ents
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For their intellectual inputs in shaping the studyP C Maithani (MNRE, India) Pankaj Batra (CEA, India)P R Shukla (Formerly, IIM Ahmedabad, India) Robert Pietzeiker (PIK, Germany)Amit Kumar Kulshreshtha and Amit Kumar Verma (NTPC, India) Solar and wind power plant developers for their perspectivesCleanMax Solar, First Solar Power India, Fourth Partner Energy, Hero Futures Energies, SunSource Energy, ReGenPowertech, ReNew Power Ventures, Suzlon Energy, and Vikram Solar For their comments during various stages of the studyPrasoon Agarwal (IRENA, UAE), Tilman Altenburg (German Development Institute, Germany), Suman Bery(Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, India), Navroz Dubash (CPR, India), Amit Garg (IIM Ahmedabad, India) CEEW Team for informing analysis of India’s power sector, industrial sector, and renewable energyKapardhi Bharadwaj, Tirtha Biswas, Kanika Chawla, Karthik Ganesan, Vaibhav Gupta, and Neeraj Kuldeep Reviewers Anshu Bharadwaj (CSTEP, India) Sudhir Chella Rajan (IIT Chennai, India) Srihari Dukkipati (Prayas Energy Group, India) Karthik Ganesan (CEEW, India) Arunabha Ghosh (CEEW, India) Yeshika Malik (CSTEP, India) Robert Pietzcker (PIK, Germany) Priyadarhi R Shukla (formerly, IIM Ahmedabad, India)Dr E Somanathan (ISI, India) Ashok Srinivas (Prayas Energy Group, India) Henri Waisman (IDDRI, France)Funding SupportFunding support was made available from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. The views expressed in the report are those of CEEW and not of the Foundation.
Thank youceew.in | @CEEWIndia
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