Utah Economic Profile 2008

Utah Planned Giving

September, 2008

Mark Knold

Chief Economist

Utah Department of Workforce Services

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

90 95 00

Year-Over Percent Change

In Non-farm Jobs

05

Utah

U.S.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08

Utah Unemployment Rate1973 – 2008

Percent

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: August 2008

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Utah Residential Dwelling Unit Approvals1994 – 2007

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; Nov. 2007.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137

Trendline

Dwelling Units

http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137

$1,000

$51,000

$101,000

$151,000

$201,000

$251,000

$301,000

$351,000

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Utah Nonresidential Construction Valuation1994 – 2007

(thousands of $)

Micron

LDS Conference Center IHC Hospital

Grand America Hotel

Trendline

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; Nov. 2007.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137


Reasons

Long Term Short Term

Change in the U.S. Economy

Change in the U.S. Labor Force

Utah Demographics

Percent Change in Population for States : 2006 to 2007U.S. Rate = 1.0%

Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country

< 0.9Source: U.S Census Bureau

NM1.5

UT2.4

AZ3.6

CA0.8

NV3.5

OR1.7

TX2.5

OK1.0

CO1.9

WA1.7

ID2.6

MT1.1

WY1.2

ND0.2

SD0.9

MN0.8

NE0.6

KS0.6

IA0.6

MO0.8

AR1.3

LA-4.9

WI0.5

IL0.5

IN0.8

OH0.1

FL 1.8

TN 1.4

KY0.8

MS0.1

AL1.1

GA2.5

SC

1.7

NC 2.1

VA1.0

WV0.2

PA0.3

NY0.0

ME0.3

AK1.0

HI1.0

MA0.1

VT0.2

NH0.6

RI-0.6

CT0.1

NJ0.2

DE1.4

MD0.5

MI-0.1

1.5 to 1.9

0.9 to 1.4 (At or Above the U.S. Rate)

2.0 or more (More than Double the U.S. Rate)



< 10%Source: U.S Census Bureau

NM

UT

AZ

CA

NV

OR

TX

OK

CO

WA

ID

MT

WY

ND

SD

MN

NE

KS

IA

MO

AR

LA

WI

IL IN OH

FL

TN

KY

MS AL GA

SC

NC

VAWV

PA

NY

ME

AK

HI

MAVT

NH

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

MI

20% to <40%

10% to <20%

> 40%

The United States PopulationIs Sparse in the Mountain Region

< 3 millionSource: U.S Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey

NM

UT

AZ

CA

NV

OR

TX

OK

CO

WA

ID

MT

WY

ND

SD

MN

NE

KS

IA

MO

AR

LA

WI

IL IN OH

FL

TN

KY

MS AL GASC

NC

VAWV

PA

NY

ME

AK

HI

MAVT

NH

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

MI

6 to <15 million

3 to <6 million

> 15 million

Industrial Revolution 1830-

After the 1950s

Washington County Population

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: Population Data, http://governor.utah.gov/dea/



< 10%Source: U.S Census Bureau

NM

UT

AZ

CA

NV

OR

TX

OK

CO

WA

ID

MT

WY

ND

SD

MN

NE

KS

IA

MO

AR

LA

WI

IL IN OH

FL

TN

KY

MS AL GA

SC

NC

VAWV

PA

NY

ME

AK

HI

MAVT

NH

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

MI

20% to <40%

10% to <20%

> 40%

Percent Change in Employment for States : 1990 to 2006U.S. Rate = 24.4%

Employment Growth is StrongestIn the Rocky Mountain Region

0% to <20%Source: U.S Census Bureau

NM

UT

AZ

CA

NV

OR

TX

OK

CO

WA

ID

MT

WY

ND

SD

MN

NE

KS

IA

MO

AR

LA

WI

IL IN OH

FL

TN

KY

MS AL GA

SC

NC

VAWV

PA

NY

ME

AK

HI

MAVT

NH

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

MI

30% to <40%

20% to <30%

> 40%

Reasons




Utah Demographics

California State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1970 1980 1990

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

2000

Oregon State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1970 1980 1990


2000

Washington State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1970 1980 1990


2000

Colorado State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1970 1980 1990


2000

Arizona State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1970 1980 1990


2000

Utah State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1970 1980 1990


2000

Nevada State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1970 1980 1990


2000

Idaho State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1970 1980 1990


2000

Montana State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1970 1980 1990


2000

Texas State Employment Growth Rates1970 – 2006

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1970 1980 1990


2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale

U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1960

Millions

Baby Boom Generation


15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


Millions



15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


Millions


Labor Vacuum

U.S. Unemployment Rate = 5.5% Employment Growth Rate = 1.6%

Unemployment was HigherJuly 1990

Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics

NM6.8

UT4.4

AZ5.4

CA5.6

NV5.1

OR5.5

TX6.3

OK5.4

CO5.1

WA5.0

ID5.5

MT6.0

WY4.9

ND4.2

SD3.8

MN4.8

NE2.4

KS4.3

IA4.5

MO5.7

AR6.7

LA5.6

WI4.3

IL6.3

IN4.8

OH5.7

FL6.2

TN 5.5

KY5.9

MS7.4

AL6.2

GA5.2

SC

4.9

NC 4.1

VA4.4

WV8.5

PA5.4

NY5.2

ME5.2

AK6.9

HI2.4

MA6.4

VT4.7

NH5.7

RI6.2

CT4.9

NJ5.0

DE3.3

MD5.1

MI7.5

5.0% and Over

Below 5.0%

Unemployment Rate

U.S. Unemployment Rate = 4.5% Employment Growth Rate = 1.3%

Unemployment is LowEven With a Sluggish U.S. Economy

July 2007

Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics

NM3.7

UT2.7

AZ3.7

CA5.3

NV4.9

OR5.5

TX4.4

OK5.0

CO3.8

WA4.9

ID2.3

MT2.7

WY3.7

ND3.1

SD3.0

MN4.6

NE3.2

KS4.6

IA3.9

MO4.9

AR5.5

LA3.9

WI5.0

IL5.2

IN4.6

OH5.8

FL 3.9

TN 4.1

KY5.7

MS6.7

AL3.7

GA4.6

SC

5.9

NC 5.0

VA3.1

WV4.8

PA4.3

NY4.9

ME4.8

AK6.1

HI2.6

MA5.1

VT4.1

NH3.9

RI5.0

CT4.5

NJ4.6

DE3.4

MD4.0

MI7.2

5.0% and Over

Below 5.0%

Unemployment Rate

Reasons




Utah Demographics

80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale

Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1960


15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


Millions


80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population


FemaleMale


15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


Millions


100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population


FemaleMale


15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


Millions


100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population


15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


FemaleMale


Millions


140,000 90,000 40,000 10,000 60,000 110,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population


15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


FemaleMale


Millions


Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers

Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers

150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population


15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

FemaleMale


FemaleMale


Millions

Dominating the Labor Force

Worker Vacuum

Worker Vacuum

Utah Employment (seasonally adjusted)

1,020

1,070

1,120

1,170

1,220

1,270

00 01 02 03

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; September 2007

04 05 06 07

Employment

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%UtahUS


In Non-farm Jobs

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Net Domestic Migration2000 - 2005

Over 100,000 Net In Migration

Source: U.S Census Bureau

9,527

-33,822

408,160

-64,460

270,946

77,821

218,722

-15,418

47,740

80,974

61,273

18,933

1,771

-18,568

-735

-16,768

-26,206

-57,763

-41,140

26,979

35,664

-89,547

14,595

-391,031 -17,000

-177,150

1,057,619

109,707

32,169

-10,57810,521 232,666

115,084

232,448

103,52110,518

-28,012

-1,001,100

36,804

-4,619

-13,112

-236,4153,530

40,861

-34,273

-194,901

27,912

9,752

-165,084

0 to 20,000 Net In Migration

20,000 to 100,000 Net In Migration

Net Out Migration

Net Migration – Domestic and International2000 - 2005

Over 100,000 Net In Migration

Source: U.S Census Bureau

37,501

16,173

576,238

751,419

337,043

150,084

881,883

21,128

159,957

215,216

75,795

21,074

4,035

-14,881

3,222

54,032

-4,007

-19,541

-11,754

69,669

57,611

-69,373

60,701

-63,011 38,656

-102,008

1,585,704

159,680

59,604

7536,457 425,510

151,485

390,672

243,49814,209

74,458

-334,093

41,808

1,181

16,956

-73,7417,889

51,968

41,718

95,293

118,724

-42,183

0 to 20,000 Net In Migration

20,000 to 100,000 Net In Migration

Net Out Migration

State of Utah Components of Population Change

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004

Per

son

s

Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Change

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee

Reasons




Utah Demographics

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%UtahUS


In Non-farm Jobs

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

UtahUS


In Non-farm Jobs

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06


Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; April 2008.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137

Trendline

Dwelling Units


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, April 2008

Overall

Housing-Related

Utah Percentage Employment ChangeOverall – Housing-Related

01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Price + Mortgage Rate = Monthly Payment (Affordability)

Subprime LendingLoans that do not meet Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guidelines. Can reflect less than ideal credit.

Alt-A LendingLoans that do not meet Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guidelines. Used by not-owner-occupied.

UnsecuritizedLoans on real estate packaged and sold not regulated by the Securities Exchange Commission. Also, loans over the Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guarantee.

Agency LoansMulti-family financing.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08


Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; August 2008.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137

Trendline

Dwelling Units


-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, August 2008

Overall

Housing-Related

Utah Percentage Employment ChangeOverall – Housing-Related

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

500

3,900

-800

2,400

6,500

400

3,800

-200

-12,800

3,200

200

Natural Resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Education and Health

Government

Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric Change)July 2007 – 2008

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Prof., and Business

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Utah Housing Price Appreciation

Across Selected Metropolitan Areas

Last Five Years

Salt Lake City 58%

Provo-Orem 51%

Ogden-Clearfield 41%

Logan 33%

St. George 73%

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

22%

21%

18%

16%

26%

Wage Appreciation

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

$1,000

$51,000

$101,000

$151,000

$201,000

$251,000

$301,000

$351,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Utah Nonresidential Construction Valuation1995 – 2008

(thousands of $)

LDS Conference Center

IHC Hospital

Grand America Hotel

Trendline

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah; August 2008.http://www.business.utah.edu/display.php?pageId=1137

City Creek


Utah State Employment Growth Rates1950 – 2010f

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1960 1970 1980 19901950

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: August 2008 f = forecast

2000

3.3% average since 1960

2010

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

90 95 00


In Non-farm Jobs

05

[email protected]

Utah Economic Profile 2008

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