Usage of Demographical Population Trends and Statistics in Public Policy in Kosovo Fitore Hyseni...

Usage of Demographical Population Trends and Statistics in Public Policy in Kosovo

Fitore Hyseni

Honors ProjectApril 26, 2013

Supervisor: Prof. Shpend AhmetiAdviser: Dr. Michael WaschakAdviser: Prof. Edmond Muhaxheri

Outline

▪ Problem Statement

▪ Background of the Research

▪ Research Question

▪ Methodology

▪ Main Findings

▪ Conclusion

▪ Further Work

▪ Recommendations

Fitore Hyseni Honors Project

Problem Statement

▪ This paper investigates the usage of statistical data and demographical population trends in the process of policy formulation by the decision makers in Kosovo.

▪ On a larger scale, this paper aims to explore whether policy makers in Kosovo are following the practice of evidence-based policy making, and if not, what are the reasons behind it.

▪ It seeks to investigate whether there are any challenges to evidence-based policy making, and, based on those, make recommendations..

▪ Motivation for this paper came from the fact that formulation of policies based on evidence has proven to be a success in the region and has played a remarkable role in developing countries.


BackgroundWHAT IS EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY MAKING


Evidence-based Policy(EBP) is a “discourse or set of methods which informs the policy process, rather than aiming to directly affect the eventual goals of the policy.”

The purpose of EBP is to promote rational policy making and analysis.

Quantitative information e.g.

statistics, modeling, performance

measures

Descriptive evidence e.g.

expert opinion

Experimental evidence e.g.

randomized trials, quasi experimental

studies

Existing evidence e.g. meta analyses,

systematic reviews, confirmed theories

Qualitative evidence e.g. qualitative

research, observational studies

Evidence


Figure 1: Components of the evidence base; Source: Adapted from AbouZahr (2011)

Background Con’tIMPORTANCE OF EVIDENCE BASED POLICY MAKING


It is crucial in formulating credible and functional policies.

It helps in monitoring and evaluating policies.

It promotes democracy through increased transparency and accountability.

Example of DevInfo

Background Con’tWHY ARE POLICIES SOMETIMES NOT BASED ON EVIDENCE?

▪ EBP is affected by politics, especially political actors, whose interests have an impact on policy formulation.

▪ Different interests followed by investigators and those who generate data, on the one hand, and policy and decision makers, on the other.

Background Con’tTHE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN KOSOVO


1.3% 4.9%

68.9%

24.9%

Enrolment in 2012/2013Pre-school Pre-primaryPrimary and lower-secondary Upper-secondary

• Lack of demand for data from the governmental organizations

• Quality, reliability, and coverage of the data are still below the EU standards

• Flawed data collection methods and a lack of information sharing between institutions.

• Policies are more based on personal and anecdotal beliefs rather than facts

Figure 2: Enrolment in the Academic Year 2012/2013; Source: Adapted from EMIS 2012-2013

Research Questions


Do policy makers in Kosovo use statistics and demographical population trends (evidence) in policy making?

What are the main challenges in the evidence-based policy making process in Kosovo?

Hypotheses of the Research

Ha: Decision makers in Kosovo do not base policies on evidence (such statistics and demographic trends).

Ho: There is no relationship between evidence and policy making.

Ha: The main challenges to evidence-based policy making in Kosovo are political influence, lack of coordination and cooperation among governmental agencies (evidence providers and decision makers), lack of resources, and lack of independent and reliable data.

Ho: There is no relationship between political influence, lack of coordination and cooperation among governmental agencies (evidence providers and decision makers), lack of resources, and lack of independent and reliable data and evidence-based policy making.


Methodology


Triangulation method:

1. Documentary analysis

2. Questionnaires

3. Interviews (expert panel study)

Methodology DOCUMENTARY ANALYSIS


▪ Reports on enrolment rates of VET schools- Kosovo Agency of Statistics and Ministry of Education and Science

▪ Reports on enrolment rates in University of Prishtina - Kosovo Agency of Statistics

▪ Schmidt et al., 2012, Sida, Evaluation of Co-operation with the Statistical Office of Kosovo

▪ Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)-Mission in Kosovo, 2012, Tracking School Dropouts and Non-attendance in Kosovo.

▪ ETF Kosovo Team, 2012, Torino Process 2012 Kosovo.,

Methodology Con’tQUESTIONNAIRES


▪ A small-scale questionnaire was conducted with 8 evidence providers and decision makers

▪ Open-ended and close-ended questions

Methodology Con’tINTERVIEWS


▪ Semi-structured interviews

▪ 8 decision makers and evidence providers

▪ The purpose of the interviews was to see whether decision makers and evidence providers perceive policies as based on evidence and what they consider to be the main challenges in adopting evidence-based policy making in governmental agencies.

Name of the organization

GAP NDI KPI KEC Riinvest MEST MEST KAS

Name of interviewee

Jeton Mehmeti

Avni Zuka

Ismet Potera

Dukagjin

Pupovci

Alban Hashani

Enver Mekolli

- -

Methods of Analysis

▪ Qualitative Research Analysis

▪ Meta-analysis

Main Findings of the ResearchVET SCHOOLS


Table 2: Number of students enrolled in Primary Education (2004-2012); Source: MEST/EMIS

2010/2011

Total Gymnasiums VET Schools

108,503 48,991 59,512

Drop-out numbers in upper-secondary schools

Total Gymnasiums VET schools

3.2 % 16 % 84 %

Main FindingsCONSTRUCITON OF SCHOOLS


2004

/200

5

2005

/200

6

2006

/200

7

2007

/200

8

2008

/200

9

2009

/201

0

2010

/201

1

2011

/201

2

2012

/201

3260,000270,000280,000290,000300,000310,000320,000330,000340,000

Academic year

Nu

mb

er

of

stu

de

nts

Region of Birth

In-migrants

Out-migrants

Net-migrants

Migrated in last 5

years

Migrated out last 5

years

Net migrants 1998-2003

Total net migrants

Gjakove 4.9 14.3 -9.4 0.5 2.6 -2.1 -11.5

Gjilan 4.7 14.1 -9.4 1 0.7 0.3 -9.1

Mitrovica 9.6 16.3 -6.7 0.9 7.1 -6.2 -12.9

Peja 16 8.2 7.8 3.7 0.4 3.3 11.1Prizren 6.4 11.8 -5.4 2 1.5 0.5 -4.9

Prishtine 36.6 14.1 22.5 8.1 1.1 7 29.5

Ferizaj 10.6 10 0.6 1 3.8 -2.8 -2.2

Figure 4: Participation of children in Primary Education; Source: MEST/EMIS

Table 3: Lifetime Migrants and Recent Migrants (1998-2003) by Region in Thousands; Source: KAS


Figure 5: Trend of school constructions (2001-2012; Source: Kosovo Agency of Statistics

“In Kosovo, there are many schools build in rural areas in the last 5-6 years that are half-empty, since no one cared to gather information about how many children are in that area and if there is a need for such building.”

2001

/200

2

2002

/200

3

2003

/200

4

2004

/200

5

2005

/200

6

2006

/200

7

2007

/200

8

2008

/200

9

2009

/201

0

2010

/201

1

2011

/201

2900

940

980

1020

1060

Academic year

Nu

mb

er o

f sc

ho

ols

Main Findings Con’tENROLMENT RATES IN THE UNIVERSITY OF PRISHTINA


Figure 1.6: Student to professor ratio in UP (2002-2012) and forecast trendline; Source: Kosovo Agency of Statistics

2002

/200

3

2003

/200

4

2004

/200

5

2005

/200

6

2006

/200

7

2007

/200

8

2008

/200

9

2009

/201

0

2010

/201

1

2011

/201

20

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Student to Professor Ratio

Ratio

Linear (Ratio)

Academic year

Rat

io

One respondent, said that “…in Kosovo are six public universities when there are only 1336 Doctors of Science and more than 100,000 students. So, instead of investing in quality, they aim in increasing the enrollment rate that already has exceeded country’s capabilities.”

Evidence-Based Policy Making In Kosovo


▪ 7 out of 8 interviewees declared that policies formulated by the governmental organization in Kosovo are not always based on evidence

▪ Most of the actors declared that the Government and the Parliament understand the importance of EBP and base their policies in evidence to some extent. Nonetheless, there are some based on assumptions and anecdotal evidence.

▪ With regards to education policy making, interviewees in general were not satisfied. They stated that policies are not entirely based on evidence but rather are affected by political interests and are based on anecdotal evidence and lack long-term vision. Nevertheless, they acknowledged that it is better than in other fields and that MEST is trying and cares about gathering evidence and observing the current situation.

Main Challenges


Lack of demographic data

Nonuse of the available tools

Lack of coordination

Lack of professionalism

Lack of resources

Lack of political will

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Frequency

Ch

alle

ng

es

Main Challenges Con’t▪ According to MEST (EMIS), in the academic year 2011/2012 out of 106,829

students enrolled in upper-secondary schools

▪ 59633 or 55.8 % were enrolled in VET schools while 47196 or 44.2 % in gymnasiums.

▪ While the other source, Kosovo Agency of Statistics, states that in the academic year 2011/2012 109,513 students were enrolled in upper-secondary schools, out of which students in VET schools make up 54.8% (59,979)


Conclusion


Evidence-based policy making is exception rather than the rule in policy making processes in Kosovo.

The main challenges to evidence-based policy making identified in the findings include: lack of experience and professionals, lack of political will, and lack of reliable data.

Limitations


1. There is a difference between data gathered through questionnaires and document analysis and those gathered through interviews.

2. Interviewees’ perceptions and beliefs do not necessarily represent those of the organization/institution to which they belong.

3. This is a representative sample

4. All the interpretations, possible generalizations, mistakes, and conclusions made in this project are sole responsibility of the researcher.

Further Studies


Educa

tion

Energ

y

Labo

r Mar

ket

Agricu

lture

Econo

mic

rese

arch

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent

Health

Privat

e Sec

tor D

evelo

pmen

t

Public

Pro

cure

men

t

Corpo

rate

Gov

erna

nce

Trans

port

Enviro

nmen

t0

2

4

6 5

32 2 2

1 1 1 1 10 0

Research Contribution by Field of Research

Series1

Field

Res

po

nse

s

Social

relev

ance

Resea

rch

inter

ests

Organ

izatio

n's m

ission

Donor

's Pre

fere

nce

Gover

nmen

tal a

genc

ies' p

refe

renc

es0

1.5

3

4.5

4 2 2 2 2

Factors that impact the choice of topics

Series1

Factors

Res

po

nse

s

Recommendations


▪ Institutionalize evidence-based policy making

▪ Expand the scope coverage of other fields

▪ Encourage exchange of good practices of evidence-based policy making with neighboring countries

▪ Increase transparency in policy and decision making

▪ Increase cooperation between evidence providers

▪ Encourage cooperation and feedback between decision makers and evidence providers within specific fields (e.g. education)

▪ Improve data-collection systems and methods of official statistics

▪ Encourage evidence providers to make the data available

Thank you for you attention!

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Usage of Demographical Population Trends and Statistics in Public Policy in Kosovo Fitore Hyseni...

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