US Economic Overview

James F. Smith, Ph.D.

SIOR Chief Economist

MIPIM 2004

Chart 1: Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls (USA)

80

95

110

125

140

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Million

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan 04

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 2: Manufacturing Employment (USA)

13

15

17

19

1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Million

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan 04

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 3: Manufacturing Industrial Production (USA)

10

40

70

100

130

1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Index (1997 = 100)

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Jan 04

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 4: Manufacturing Share of GDP (USA)

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2003Q4

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 5: Household Employment (USA)

90

105

120

135

1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Million

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan 04

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 6: Total Exports and Imports:Goods and Services (USA)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

$Billion

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2003Q4

Exports

Imports

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 7: Exports - Imports: Goods (USA)

-150

-100

-50

0

50

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

$Billion

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2003Q4

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 8: Exports - Imports: Services (USA)

-1

4

9

14

19

24

29

1970 1972 1975 1978 1981 1983 1986 1989 1992 1994 1997 2000 2003

$Billion

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2003Q4

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 9: Total Exports - Imports:Goods and Services (USA)

-150

-100

-50

0

50

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

$Billion

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2003Q4

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 10: Trade Weighted US Dollarvs. Major Currencies

0

50

100

150Index (March 1973 = 100)

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Feb 04

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 11: Yields on 10-year Treasuries (USA)

0%

3%

5%

8%

10%

13%

15%

1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Feb 04

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 12: Corporate Profits* as a Share of GDP (USA)

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2003Q3

*with inventory adjustment valuations and capital consumption adjustments

Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 13:Real Disposable Income Per Capita (USA)

-3%

-1%

2%

5%

7%

10%

1948 1952 1956 1960 1965 1969 1973 1977 1982 1986 1990 1994 1999 2003

% change (year over year)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2003Q4

Trend Growth = 3.5%