Urbanization Bubble Four Quadrants Measurement Model 2015 Cities

7/24/2019 Urbanization Bubble Four Quadrants Measurement Model 2015 Cities

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Urbanization bubble: Four quadrants measurement model

Jingyang Zhou a,b, Xiaoling Zhang c, Liyin Shen b,d,

a School of Management and Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan, PR Chinab School of Construction Management and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, PR Chinac Department of Public Policy, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Chinad International Research Center for Sustainable Built Environment, Chongqing University, Chongqing, PR China

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:

Received 23 January 2015

Received in revised form 15 April 2015

Accepted 24 April 2015

Available online 29 April 2015

Keywords:

Sustainable urbanization

Urbanization bubble

Urbanization rate

Urbanization bubble velocity

Coordinate method

a b s t r a c t

The proper understanding of the urbanization bubble is very important to assist local governments in

adopting strategies to mitigate the effects of the bubble and guide urbanization toward sustainable devel-

opment. This paper presents a method of measuring the urbanization bubble with particular reference to

China. In referring to thedefinition of an economic bubble, this study defines the urbanization bubble as a

dynamic process in which urbanization rate (UR) deviates from four urbanization performance variables

comprising the proportion of urban population with registration (TRP), urban construction land area (TBA),

level of industrial development (LID) and level of public facilities (LPF). Four coordinates are formed

between the rate of urbanization and the four performance variables to examine the practice of urban-

ization in terms of four quadrants. The ratios between changes in urbanization rate and the changes of

the four urbanization performance variables are introduced to measure the urbanization bubble. The

method is tested through a case study to show that the coordinate method has the potential to help pol-

icy makers detect any bubble in the process of urbanization.

2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Urbanization, commonly defined as the migration of people

from rural to urban areas, has been a major trend of the 20th

and 21st centuries (United Nations, 2012). China is urbanizing at

an unprecedented speed (Hogan, Bunnell, Pow, Permanasari, &

Morshidi, 2012), and two in every three persons in China will live

in urban areas by 2025 (DESA-UN, 2011). Urbanization plays a sig-

nificant role in enhancing the value of societys total output and

increasing economic growth (Brown & Neuberger, 1977). These

benefits have motivated the Chinese government to implement

various schemes to improve sustainable urban development

(Shen & Zhou, 2014).

However, the dramatically increasing levels of urbanization

worldwide has created concerns for the sustainability of cities

(Isendahl & Smith, 2013). This is especially the case in China, where

many local governments increasingly place more emphasis on

speed than quality when implementing urbanization strategies.

Urbanization in China is of a typical government-lead style instead

of one that is market-oriented (Xu, 2004). Previous studies suggest

that ignoring the inherent law of urbanization will result in a mis-

match between urbanization and industrialization, urban popula-

tion growth and urban infrastructure development and cause a

conflict of interests between rural migrant workers and urban res-

idents (Fu, Liu, & Zhao, 2012; Zhang, 2006). In particular, these

problems lead to a discrepancy between land use and economic

growth. For example, from 1981 to 2011, urban construction land

in China increased from 7415 km2 to 41,861 km2, with a 15% aver-

age annual growth rate. However, the annual economic growth

rate was far below 15% over the same period (China Statistical

Yearbook, 2012). Some scholars (e.g.Wang, 2011; Xu, 2004) refer

to this phenomenon caused by government-lead urbanization as

the urbanization bubble, which results in social problems such as

environmental pollution, population explosion, and steep increase

in consumables prices hindering sustainable urbanization.

There have been various attempts to address these problems.

For example, research on the impact of urbanization on social

and eco-environmental systems has been conducted to provide a

reference for implementing sustainable urbanization strategies

(Lehmann, 2012; Madlener & Sunak, 2011; Morinire, 2012).

Assessment models have been established to understand concerns

regarding sustainable urbanization and assess the quality of urban-

ization from the perspectives of economic, social and environmen-

tal performance (Bossel, 1999; Hemphill, Berry, & McGreal, 2004;

Steurer & Hametner, 2011; Vera & Langlois, 2007). Various

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2015.04.007

0264-2751/2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Corresponding author at: School of Construction Management and Real Estate,

Chongqing University, Chongqing, PR China.

E-mail addresses: [email protected](J. Zhou), xiaoling.zhang@cityu.

edu.hk (X. Zhang),[email protected](L. Shen).

Cities 46 (2015) 815

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Cities

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / c i t i e s
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technological methods such as low carbon emission, air and noise

pollution control and waste management have been developed to

promote urban environment protection and sustainable urbaniza-

tion (Haase, Haase, Kabisch, & Bischoff, 2008; Jantz, Goetz, &

Shelley, 2004; Ward, Phinn, & Murray, 2000). In a recent study,

Shen, Ochoa, Zhang, and Peng (2013)create an experience mining

framework to assist city managers in implementing sustainable

urbanization strategies so as to prevent the formation of the urban-

ization bubble.

The only extant research on the urbanization bubble as such is

Wangs (2011) study of 35 Chinese cities from 1999 to 2008, which

highlighted the general influence of provincial population, econ-

omy and space. However, no other studies have developed more

specific ways of measuring the urbanization bubble or understand-

ing when a process of urbanization is turning into a bubble situa-

tion. In particular, there is a lack of quantitative methods available,

which is hindering urban managers and planners in selecting

appropriate urbanization strategies. This paper aims to fill this

research gap by developing a tool for measuring the urbanization

bubble.

2. Sustainable urbanization and the urbanization bubble

2.1. Sustainable urbanization

Urbanization is intimately related to economic development,

human livelihood, and profound changes in patterns of human

behavior (Bettencourt, Lobo, Helbing, Khnert, & West, 2007).

It is a process in which industrial structure, peoples living envi-

ronment, land and geographical space gradually transform to

modern urban society (Ejaro & Abubakar, 2013). Sustainable

urbanization aims to achieve an equilibrium between humans

and the natural resources (Rasoolimanesh, Badarulzaman, &

Jaafar, 2012). This is echoed in many other studies, arguing that

sustainable urbanization involves the harmony and balance

between economic, environmental and social necessities(Alberti & Marzluff, 2004; Hezri & Hasan, 2004; Shen, Peng,

Zhang, & Wu, 2012; Yigitcanlar, 2009). Sustainable urbanization,

as the embodiment of sustainable development, occurs only

when the urbanization process harmonizes with the principles

of sustainable development (Pivo, 1996). It focuses on keeping

balance between economic benefit and the environment, ecology

and society in order to realize the coordinated development

between different regions and sectors. Therefore, cities or towns

should develop their social and economic structure in such a

way that resources of all kinds can be utilized as efficiently as

possible without damaging their natural environment

(Rasoolimanesh et al., 2012).

In the case of China, sustainable urbanization not only involves

an increase in the city and urban population, but must also bring

about improvement of the level of infrastructure, efficiency of land

use, level of industrialization, level of agricultural modernization

and the quality of peoples lives (Wu, 2011; Wu & Sun, 2010).

The ultimate goal of urbanization is to improve peoples welfare

and quality of life through coordinated development between

social, economic and environmental dimensions in order to satisfy

the needs of both the current and future generations (Van den

Berg, Hartig, & Staats, 2007).

2.2. Urbanization bubble

The term bubble is a focus of research for economists and

financial market participants (Hommes, Sonnemans, Tuinstra, &

van de Velden, 2008; Matsuoka & Shibata, 2012; Nneji, Brooks, &Ward, 2013; Painter & Yu, 2013; Stckl, Huber, & Kirchler, 2010).

Aneconomic bubble, derived from Kindleberge in 1987, is defined

as a process in which a continuously rising asset price suddenly

collapses (Palgrave, 1987). Although there is disagreement and

controversy over the definition of the bubble, most economists

and financial market participants consider it to be the rational

deviation of the price from an intrinsic value (Blanchard &

Watson, 1983; Smith, King, Williams, & Boening, 1993).

Furthermore, Noussair, Robin, and Ruffieux (2001) provide two

conditions to determine whether there is a bubble in an asset mar-

ket: (a) the median transaction price in five consecutive periods is

at least 50 units of experimental currency (about 13.9%) greater

than the fundamental value; and (b) the average price is at least

two standard deviations (of transaction prices) greater than the

fundamental value for five periods.

The issue of bubble economy in China has also been a major

research interest. Some economists believe that it is a state of

economic growth in which there is a very high rate or expan-

sion rate of scale (Ling, 1998; Xiong, 1998) and of a kind that

cannot create any actual benefits to peoples living standard,

income level or industrial structure of the national economy

(Lu, 1998). As Muellbauer and Murphy (2008) indicate, house

price bubbling is a systematic deviation of house prices from

levels that are explained by fundamentals such as household

income and rent. In reality, a bubble economy usually appears

as an excessively quick rise of asset prices, such as real estate

prices, stock prices, securities and other financial assets. For

example, the house price bubble refers to a situation in which

the excessive public expectation of future price increases causes

real estate prices to be temporarily elevated (Case & Shiller,

2003).

Theurbanization bubble, sometimes called false urbanization or

excessive urbanization, has not been clearly defined. The connota-

tion of urbanization bubble has been explained from different per-

spectives. From the population perspective, for example, the

urbanization bubble is referred to as the increase in the proportion

of urban population to the total population during a given time

interval (Namboodiri, 1996; Zhao, 2005). In this situation, the life-style and living quality of migrations from rural to urban areas is

not substantially improved. As far as land use is concerned, the

urbanization bubble is a phenomena where the expansion speed

of the urban area exceeds the speed of population urbanization

(Ren & Li, 2006). This kind of urbanization relies on extensively

enlarging urban areas to realize the local governments goal of

becoming an international metropolis. From the economic per-

spective, the urbanization bubble is primarily driven by demo-

graphic forces, particularly rural to urban migration, rather than

by economic and industrial activities (Agbola, 2005; Hartshorn,

Dent, Heck, & Stutz, 1980). In this case, the speed of urbanization

is much higher than that of economic industrialization, leading

to the deviation between the urbanization level and economic

development level. Others argue that urban infrastructure is akey ingredient in the success of a city in the business world

(Shome, 2013). The urbanization bubble happens when cities can-

not provide migrants with affordable and accessible public services

and supporting facilities, such as regular water and electricity sup-

plies, housing, health services and public transport (Ejaro &

Abubakar, 2013).

This suggests the need an equilibrium relationship between

population increase, land use, industrial development and the level

of public services and infrastructure in order to avoid an urbaniza-

tion bubble. In other words, the process of urbanization needs to be

harmony with the development of the urban economy and living

standards. If the equilibrium relationship is disturbed, especially

when the urbanization rate exceeds the level of other fundamen-

tals such as public facilities and industrial development, an urban-ization bubble will form.

J. Zhou et al. / Cities 46 (2015) 815 9
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3. Variables and measurements of the urbanization bubble

3.1. Variables for measuring the urbanization bubble

(1) The basic variables are:

Population bubble. A population bubble means that the

process of urbanization depends mostly on the inflow

of migrant workers from rural areas. With Chinas house-hold registration system, which fails to recognize such

migrants as urban residents, this means that many

migrants cannot enjoy the same benefits as the estab-

lished urban residents a situation in which, if suffi-

ciently severe, a population bubble will appear.

Therefore, for a bubble-free urbanization process, the rate

of registration of migrant families as urban households

should keep in pace with the development of

urbanization.

Land use bubble. A land use bubble reflects the expansion

of urban construction land area being critically faster

than that of the urban population. Therefore, an equilib-

rium between the increase of urban population and

urban area expansion is needed to avoid the development

of a land use bubble.

Industrial development bubble. An industrial develop-

ment bubble reflects the difference in the level of indus-

trial development and level of urbanization. An industrial

development bubble will appear if the balance between

the speed of industrial development and urbanization

growth is disturbed.

Infrastructure development bubble. An infrastructure

development bubble means that the level of infrastruc-

ture and facilities cannot meet the demands of the urban-

ization process. In other words, if the level of urban

infrastructure and facilities does not catch up with the

speed of urbanization and expansion of the urban area,

an infrastructure development bubble will be inevitable.

(2) Based on the definition of a bubble from these four perspec-tives, therefore, the variables contributing to the urbaniza-

tion bubble comprise the proportion of urban population

with registration (TRP), urban construction land area (TBA),

level of industrial development (LID) and level of urban

infrastructure and facilities (LPF). To proceed further, it is

necessary to normalize these variables because they are

measured on different scales. These are represented asT0RP,

T0BA, L0

ID, andL0

PF respectively.

(3) The urbanization bubble reflects a change process in which a

systematic deviation of urbanization rate (UR) from the

levels explained by TRP, TBA, LID andLPFexists. The velocities

VUR , VTRP, VTBA , VLID , and VLPF of the urbanization rate (UR)

and the four variables describe these deviations.

(4) Using the five velocities enables the derivation of the ratios

aVUR

VTRP

bVUR

VTBA

rVUR

VLID

qVUR

VLPF

to identify the existence of an urbanization bubble.

3.2. Measuring the variables

3.2.1. Urbanization rate (UR)

The urbanization rate (UR) is generally measured by the ratio of

dwellers in urban areas to the total number of dwellers.1 The value

ofUR changes with the dynamic migration of people from rural to

urban areas. Therefore, there is a specific value ofURat a given time

in the process of urbanization. The magnitude of the change in

urbanization rate in a period of time from t1 to t2 can be measured

by urbanization velocity (VUR ) as

VUR U

0Rt2

U0Rt1

t2 t1

DU0R

Dt 1

where U0

Rt2 and U0

Rt1 are the values ofURafter normalization at t1and

t2 respectively, DU0

R is the variation of urbanization rate in the spec-

ified time interval, and Dtis the increment of time interval.

3.2.2. Proportion of urban population with registration (TRP)

The proportion of registered urban population is measured by

the ratio of registered urban residents to the total urban popula-

tion. The value ofTRPvaries in the process of urbanization as both

the former and latter vary. Therefore, the velocity of the proportion

of registered urban population,VTRP, is used to measure the signif-

icance of change of the ratio fromt1to t2 as

VTRPT0RPt2

T0RPt1

t2 t1

DT0RP

Dt 2

where VTRP is the velocity of the proportion of registered urban pop-

ulation,T0RPt2 andT0

RPt1are the value ofTRPafter normalization at t2

andt1 respectively, DT0

RPis the variation of proportion of registered

urban population in the specified time interval, and Dtis the incre-

ment of time interval.

3.2.3. Urban construction land area (TBA)

The urban construction land area (TBA) is the land areafor urban

construction. The value of TBA varies during urban expansion.

Therefore, there is a specific value ofTBAat a given time in the pro-

cess of urbanization. The velocity of urban construction land area

(VTBA ), which measures the significance of a change in urban con-

struction land area duringt1 to t2 is

VTBA T0BAt2

T0BAt1

t2 t1

DT0BA

Dt 3

whereVTBA is the velocity of urban construction land area,T0

BAt2and

T0BAt1 are the values of TBA after normalization at t2 andt1 respec-

tively and DT0BA is the variation of urbanization construction land

area in a specified time interval

3.2.4. Level of industrial development (LID)

The variableLIDreflects the status of industrial development by

a set of indicators in three aspects of industrialization, service

industry and agricultural modernization as shown in Table 1.

There is a specific value of the level of industrial development

(LID) at a given point of time in the process of urbanization. The sig-nificance of a change in the level of industrial development from t1tot2, can be measured by industrial development velocity (VLID ) as

VLID L0IDt2

L0IDt1

t2 t1

DL0ID

Dt 4

where L0IDt2 and L0

IDt1are the value ofLIDafter normalization att2and

t1 respectively and DL0

ID is the variation of the level of industrial

development in a specified time interval.

3.2.5. Level of urban infrastructure and facilities (LPF)

The level of urban infrastructure and facilities (LPF) is measured

by a set of indicators as shown in Table 2. These indicators are con-

cerned with the aspects of energy, water resource, transportation,communication and environment.

1 Although there are different definitions of urban area (Fay & Opal, 2000;Williamson, 1965).

10 J. Zhou et al./ Cities 46 (2015) 815


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VLPF < 0 again indicate a bubble-free urbanization process.

However,VTRP < 0,VLID < 0,VLPF < 0 mean the practice of urbaniza-

tion is unsustainable as it occurs when the social and ecological sys-

tems of a given city are so bad that its carrying capacity has been

destroyed and the urban people to rural areas. In quadrant (III) in

Fig. 1(b), the scenario of VUR < 0 and VTBA < 0, refers to a process

of counter-urbanization and deceleration of urban expansion. This

is bubble-free urbanization from the perspective of land use and

the practice of urbanization is a sustainable process providing the

changes in urbanization rate and changes of land use are consistent.

0.5

0

III

IVIII

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

0.5

0

III

IVIII

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

(a) (b)

0.5

0

III

IVIII

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5- 0.5 - 0. 4 - 0.3 - 0. 2 - 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5- 0. 5 - 0. 4 - 0.3 - 0.2 - 0. 1

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5- 0. 5 - 0. 4 - 0. 3 - 0. 2 - 0. 1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5- 0. 5 - 0.4 - 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.1

0.5

0

III

IVIII

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

VTRP

VUR

VLID

VLPF

VTBA

VUR

VUR

VUR

(c) (d)

Fig. 1. Coordinates for measuring urbanization bubble.

Table 3

The three scenarios in referring to a.

Scenarios

a > 1 a = 1 a < 1

VUR > VTRP VUR = VTRP VUR < VTRPThis is considered a risk

of population

urbanization bubble.

Measures should be

taken to give more

interests to the

migrations from

rural areas

This is considered the

perfect status of

urbanization process.

There is no bubble in

the process of

urbanization

This is considered no

urbanization bubble.

Measures should be

taken to improve

urbanization process

Table 4

The three scenarios in referring to b.

Scenarios

b > 1 b= 1 b< 1

VUR > VTBA VUR = VTBA VUR < VTBAThis is considered no

bubble in industrial

development.

Measures should be

taken to balance the

relationship between

urban expansion and

population increase


perfect status of


There is no bubble in

the process of

urbanization

This is considered a risk

of urbanization bubble

in land use. Measures

should be taken to

expropriate urban

construction land

rationally



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(4) Quadrant (IV)

Quadrant (IV) in all the four coordinates inFig. 1represents the

relationships:

VUR > 0 and VTRP < 0 and VTBA < 0 and VLID < 0 and VLPF < 0

where VUR

> 0 indicates a growth of urbanization, VTRP

< 0, VTBA

< 0,

VLID < 0, VLPF < 0 a deterioration of urbanization quality and

decrease of urban expansion.

In referring to the quadrant (IV) in Fig. 1(a), (c), (d), the threesce-

narios: (a) VUR > 0 and VTRP < 0, (b) VUR > 0 and VLID < 0, and (c)

VUR > 0 and VLPF < 0 indicate that there is a serious urbanization

bubble and measures are needed to improve the quality of urban-

ization. In quadrant (IV) in Fig. 1(b), VUR > 0 andVTBA < 0 indicate

that urbanization managers are placing more emphasis on increas-

ing urban population rather than the blind expansion of the urban

area. Therefore, there is no land use bubble in the process of urban-

ization. Another reason for this situation is that there is a serious

lack of space for construction land usedue to a previouslyexcessive

expansion of urban space in the urbanization process. There is

therefore a risk of a shortage of urban land resources in the future.

5. Application of the coordinate-based discrimination method

to measuring the urbanization bubble

This section presents a demonstration and test of the use of the

coordinate-based discrimination method for measuring the urban-

ization bubble of Qingdao, a coastal city of the Shandong province

of China. Qingdao is atypical rapidly developing urbanized coastal

open city. A research link with the Central Government of Qingdao

ensures the quality of data available for analysis.

5.1. Data collection

The data for the urbanization rate and the four other variableswere collected for the period of 20052012 from the Statistical

Yearbook of Qingdao, Statistical Yearbook of Shandong Province,

China City Statistical Yearbook, the official website of the

Qingdao government and other relevant published literature. The

detailed data are listed inTable 7.

5.2. Data analysis

By applying the data in Table 7 to Eqs. (1)(5), the values ofVUR ,

VTRP,VTBA ,VLID ,VLPF, and the four ratios (a,b,r,q) are obtained. Theresults are summarized inTable 8, showing thatVUR > 0,VTRP > 0,

VTBA > 0, VLID > 0 and VLPF > 0. Therefore, the urbanization of

Qingdao city from 2005 to 2012 can be allocated to quadrant (I)

for all four coordinates. This indicates a growth of urbanization,

and an improvement of urbanization quality and expansion of

the urban area. The values of the ratios a, b, r, q are illustratedin Fig. 2, showing their considerable variation over the period.

The urbanization in this period can also be analyzed in three con-

tiguous epochs: (a) 20052009; (b) 20092010; and (c) 2011

2012. This can be conducted by referring to the discrimination cri-

teria inTables 36.

The results in Fig. 2 represent the relationshipsa < 1, b< 1, r < 1andq < 1 in the 20052009 epoch. The discriminations a < 1,r < 1andq < 1 indicate a bubble-free urbanization process from the per-spectives of population, industrial development and infrastructure

development. However, the relationb < 1 suggests there are risks

of an urban land use bubble due to the speed of urban space expan-

sion exceeding the speed of population urbanization. This is

because the Qingdao government at that time was pushing to

speed up urbanization by expansion of urban space.

The relationships:a > 1,b > 1,r > 1 and q > 1 in the 20092010epoch. The discriminations a > 1, r > 1, and q > 1 indicate thatthere exists a serious urbanization bubble from the perspectives

of population, industrial development and infrastructure develop-

ment. Furthermore, the dramatic increase in the values ofa, r, andq indicate that the risks of a bubble in population, industrial devel-

opment and infrastructure development were intensifying duringthe period. This is due to the Qingdao government vigorously pro-

moting the urbanization process at the time. However, the urban-

ization practice in Qingdao showed a typical authoritarian style, in

which the local government accelerated the urbanization rate lar-

gely by expansion of population, while neglecting the improve-

ment of urbanization quality. Nevertheless, the relationship b > 1

indicates that there was no bubble from the perspective of land

use in this period.

The relationshipsa > 1,b > 1,r > 1 andq > 1 in the 20112012epoch suggests that there is an urbanization bubble from the per-

spectives of population, industrial development and infrastructure

development. However, the bubble gradually diminishes, as indi-

cated by the decrease of the values ofa, r andq in this period.

This is because the Qingdao government realized the seriousurbanization bubble problems that were occurring at that time

Table 5

The three scenarios in referring to r.

Scenarios

r > 1 r = 1 r < 1

VUR > VLID VUR = VLID VUR < VLIDThis is considered a

risk of urbanization

bubble in

industrial

development.

Measures should

be taken to

improve industrial

development


perfect status of


There is no bubble in the

process of urbanization


bubble in industrial

development. Measures

should be taken to

improve urbanization

process

Table 6

The three scenarios in referring to q.

Scenarios

q > 1 q = 1 q < 1

VUR > VLPF VUR = VLPF VUR < VLPFThis is considered a

risk of urbanization

bubble ininfrastructure

development.

Measures should be

taken to improve

urban infrastructure

and facilities

development


perfect status of

urbanization process.Thereis no bubble in the

process of urbanization


bubble in infrastructure

development. Measuresshould be taken to

improve urbanization

process

Table 7

Detailed data of urbanization rate and other four variables.

Years UR (%) TRP(%) TBA (km2) LID LPF

2005 63.20 60.32 178.8 0.087 0.046

2006 63.59 61.14 227.5 0.194 0.269

2007 63.90 61.45 250.7 0.320 0.371

2008 64.31 61.77 267.1 0.457 0.421

2009 64.68 62.71 272.9 0.557 0.514

2010 65.81 62.84 282.3 0.704 0.588

2011 66.52 62.98 291.5 0.772 0.707

2012 67.14 63.15 374.6 0.831 1.000

Note: the values of LID andL PFare the results after assessment by indicators inTables 1and2.

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and made the interventions necessary. For example, the 12th Five

Year Plan of urbanization in this city was formulated by the end of

2010, which addressed the problem of the urbanization bubble.

Other policy measures have also been introduced subsequently

that have provided effective guidance for sustainable urbanization

practice. All in all, therefore, the process of urbanizationin Qingdao

after 2010 appears to be moving toward healthy sustainable

development.

6. Conclusions

Adequate evaluation of the urbanization bubble is very impor-

tant to assist the state in adopting strategies to anticipate and mit-

igate its effects and guide sustainable development. The findings of

this study indicate that the urbanization bubble can be assessed by

the urbanization rate (UR) and the four proportional dynamic

urbanization performance variables of urban population with reg-

istration (TRP), urban construction land area (TBA), level of industrial

development (LID) and level of urban infrastructure and facilities(LPF). A coordinate-based discrimination method is developed for

this purpose and demonstrated and tested in a case study of

Qingdao to establish its effectiveness.

The method introduced in this study is the first to detect the

presence of the urbanization bubble and therefore contributes sig-

nificantly to the development of research in this field. It enables

the understanding of potential urbanization bubbles, from which

precautionary measures and strategies can be developed in the

earlier stages to mitigate bubble effects and ensure the process

of urbanization leads to better sustainability. Nevertheless, it is

appreciated that the proposed method is tested only in one case

within the Chinese context. Further research is needed to investi-

gate the effectiveness of the methodology by examining more

cases to compare different urbanization practices and share goodexperiences in improving sustainable urbanization.

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Table 8

The values of velocities and ratios of all variables for Qingdao city.

Years VUR VTRP a VTBA b VLID r VLPF q

2005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

2006 0.086 0.290 0.298 0.249 0.347 0.107 0.808 0.223 0.387

2007 0.069 0.110 0.626 0.118 0.579 0.126 0.544 0.102 0.675

2008 0.082 0.113 0.724 0.084 0.977 0.137 0.599 0.050 1.624

2009 0.082 0.332 0.246 0.030 2.763 0.100 0.819 0.092 0.888

2010 0.250 0.046 5.442 0.048 5.207 0.147 1.702 0.074 3.3682011 0.157 0.049 3.175 0.047 3.343 0.069 2.290 0.120 1.312

2012 0.137 0.060 2.283 0.424 0.323 0.059 2.340 0.293 0.469

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Fig. 2. Distribution ofa, b,r,q from 20052012 for Qingdao city.

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Urbanization Bubble Four Quadrants Measurement Model 2015 Cities

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