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Transcript of Updating Water Infrastructure Design for Climate Change ... · Infrastructure Design for Climate...
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Updating Water
Infrastructure Design for
Climate Change Adaptation
Glenn Milner
AWRA Summer Specialty Conference
June 28, 2017
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Outline
• What is a Conservation Authority?
• Engineering Challenge in Policy and Existing Tools
• Project: Updating Water Infrastructure Design
incorporating Climate Change
– Phase 1: Deriving Future IDF Curves using Climate
Projections
– Phase 2: Technical Guidance on new Approaches to
Water Infrastructure Design for Climate Adaptation
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What is a Conservation Authority? (CA)
• Created in 1946 under Ontario’s ‘Conservation Authorities Act’
• Mandate:
– Ensure the conservation, restoration and responsible management of
Ontario’s water, land and natural habitats through programs balancing
human, environmental and economic needs.
• A few of Toronto and Region Conservation Authority’s Programs:
– Floodplain management and Flood Warning
– Development Review and Regulation (in CA jurisdiction)
– Erosion Control
– Watershed Planning and Research
– Monitoring of Groundwater, Surface water and Ecological features
– Stormwater management
– Climate Change
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Then, in 1954…
• Hurricane Hazel made landfall in Toronto, taking 81 lives and
causing $1.28 billion in damage (in 2017, Canadian dollars)
• Since then, increased authority was over land acquisition and
regulation was given to the Conservation Authorities
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TRCA’s Climate Change Hub
Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC) Services…
1. Vulnerability and Risk Assessments
• Natural Systems
• Agricultural System
• Stormwater Infrastructure
• Community Services, etc.
2. Climate Adaptation Planning with Municipalities across the
Province
3. Climate Information and Scenario Analysis in support of
Climate Adaptation
4. Stakeholder Engagement: Workshops, Think-tanks, Research
Symposia
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ENGINEERING CHALLENGE IN
ONTARIO
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Climate Policy Required Updates…
• Climate change will increase
intense rainfall
• Practitioners must
acknowledge this in design
• Updated Ontario Adaptation
Plan to be released end of
2017
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…And Engineers Responded
• University of Western Ontario
– IDF CC Tool: http://www.idf-cc-uwo.ca/
• Ontario’s Ministry of Transportation
– MTO Tool:
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/IDF_Curves/
• But, uncertainty of climate projections were not
originally reflected or explained adequately
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Municipal Infrastructure Context
(Stormwater)
• Stormwater Infrastructure owned and managed by municipalities
includes: pipes, catchbasins, culverts, stormwater ponds, etc.
• Barriers to ‘mainstreaming climate change’:
– Silos across municipal service departments
– Lack of continuous data records or digital information
– Legacy funding leading to ‘bursts’ of information about municipal
infrastructure system in hot spots, but not everywhere (inspections, etc.)
NORTHWEST TORONTO TORONTO TRANSIT CORRIDOR
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Updating Water Infrastructure Design
to incorporate Climate Change
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Project Overview
• Objective: To provide technical guidance to municipal
engineers on how to integrate climate change into
stormwater infrastructure design.
• Phase 1: Investigated multiple methods for deriving
future IDF curves that incorporate climate projections
– Case Study in Toronto and Essex Regions of Ontario
• Phase 2: Produce technical guidance on incorporating
climate change into SW infrastructure design
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Phase 1 Objectives & Partners
• To understand the implications of
using different methods for
incorporating climate change into
IDF curves;
• To apply this approach in Essex
and Toronto regions of Ontario.
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Future IDF Curve Methodology
5 Climate Models
1-2 Emissions Scenarios
2 Downscaling
Methods
16 Permutations
15 Climate Stations
Annual maximum rainfall for different
durations (1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 6hr, 12hr, 24hr)
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Climate Models Used…
Model Rationale Spatial
Resolution Temporal
Resolution
Scenarios
Historical A2 RCP
4.5 RCP
8.5
RCMs
CRCM3
(CGCM3) Canadian
context 50 km 3-hours ✔ ✔
HRM3
(HadCM3) Popular RCM 50 km 3-hours ✔ ✔
CanRCM4
(CanESM2) Canadian
context 40 km 1-hours ✔ ✔ ✔
GCMs
HadGEM2-ES Popular GCM Approx. 120
x 139 km 3-hours ✔ ✔ ✔
MIRCO-ESM
"Best"
performing
GCM in
Sheffield et al.
(2013)
Approx. 150
km 3-hours ✔ ✔ ✔
Downscaling Delta and Bias Correcting Methods
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http://climateconnections.ca/our-work
Report Available Online at:
37 mm/h
110 mm/h
Toronto
Pearson Int’l
Airport Station
2090s
100yr Return
Period Storm
10th-90th
Percentile
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Key Messages on Deriving Future IDF
Curves
• Climate models aren’t great with resolving or projecting
convective extreme rainfall events
• Climate model and emissions scenario selection has a
profound effect on calculated IDF curves
• IDF statistics vary widely between stations in the same
area: selection of climate station also has a profound
effect on calculated IDF
• Range of uncertainty for short durations and large return
periods at a single station can exceed 100%
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Phase 2 – Current Initiatives
• Objective: To Provide technical guidance for stormwater
infrastructure owners on how to incorporate climate change into
infrastructure design
– Working Group established among municipal partners
– Literature Review and Mapping adaptation pathways to identify broad
patterns, trends and options for asset design & management (ongoing)
– Stakeholder workshop with experts to (late summer)
– Produce Technical Guidelines (early fall)
• Goal: Shift focus away from the derivation of a single, definitive set
of future IDF curves to a probability based approach or one focused
on risk tolerance
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Different adaptation activities correspond to different expenditure pathways. Type I is incurred in the immediate future (e.g. emergency services). Type II relates to activities which typically occur on an annual basis. Type III is what economists hope for - wait until you absolutely must change.
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Thank You!
Glenn Milner
For more information, please visit:
http://climateontario.org | www.trca.on.ca