UPDATES IN AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE · 2017. 1. 4. · 1970 - 2003 Emissions were approximately...

2015 Transportation Short Course

UPDATES IN AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE 2015 TxDOT Environmental Conference


Presentation Topics

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State of Air Quality and 2015 Ozone NAAQS

Ozone NAAQS Risk Management

Pending CEQ NEPA Climate Change and GHG Guidance

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2

3

Key Takeaways and a Historical Pictorial

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Types and Sources of Air Pollution

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Source: www.environment.scotland.gov.uk

http://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrTcXbzUetVg9YAgF6QnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTBxNG1oMmE2BHNlYwNmcC1hdHRyaWIEc2xrA3J1cmwEaXQD/RV=2/RE=1441514099/RO=11/RU=http:/www.environment.scotland.gov.uk/get-informed/air/air-quality/RK=0/RS=qcIsscc4ythcJsh8QBwYnPvlG8w-


Comparison of State Reductions in Ozone

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http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/airquality/airsuccess/air-success-criteria


Transportation Contribution to Houston NOx Emissions


National NOx Emissions Trend

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0

500,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1,500,000,000,000

2,000,000,000,000

2,500,000,000,000

3,000,000,000,000

3,500,000,000,000

4,000,000,000,000

4,500,000,000,000

5,000,000,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Nat

ionw

ide

Ann

ual V

MT

Nat

ionw

ide

NO

x Em

issi

ons

(tons

/yea

r)

Year

National On-Road NOx Emission Trend (MOVES2014 October release)

Nox (US tons)

Distance (miles)

Data: FHWA Resource Center, December 9, 2014 1970 - 2003 Emissions were approximately 10,000,000 tons/year, so VMT increases and emission reductions remained net-neutral.


Pre-/Post- Clean Air Act – Pittsburgh, PA

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Pittsburgh, Smog, Corner of Liberty and Fifth Avenues,10:55 AM, 1940 Source:http://www.citylab.com/design/2012/06/what-pittsburgh-looked-when-it-decided-it-had-pollution-problem/2185/

Pittsburgh now Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pittsburgh_skyline.jpg

http://www.citylab.com/design/2012/06/what-pittsburgh-looked-when-it-decided-it-had-pollution-problem/2185/

http://www.citylab.com/design/2012/06/what-pittsburgh-looked-when-it-decided-it-had-pollution-problem/2185/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pittsburgh_skyline.jpg


Beijing, China

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900+ µg/m3 PM2.5 smog day, 2012 Image source: The Atlantic. HTTP://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/01/chi “Outdoor air pollution ranked 4th in mortality and health burden in East Asia (China and North Korea) where it contributed to 1.2 million deaths in 2010” --Health Effects Institute, Based on Global Burden of Disease Report nas-toxic-sky/100449

30 + µg/m3 PM2.5 good day, 2012 (U.S. PM2.5 standard is 12 µg/m3)

Image source: The Atlantic. HTTP://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/01/chinas-toxic-sky/100449


https://www.uschamber.com/issue-brief/ozone-national-ambient-air-quality-standards

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Impact of International Ozone Transport


National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

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Purpose

1o Protect human health

2o Protect public welfare

Preparation 2015 Ozone

AASHTO, FHWA and TRB series of webinars

TxDOT, FHWA and TCEQ support

Oct 2015: EPA Ozone NAAQS Decision

Oct 2016: Governors propose nonattainment areas

Oct 2017: EPA designates nonattainment areas

Oct 2018-Mar 2019: Transportation Conformity Due

Oct 2020 Air Quality Plans (SIPs) due and next NAAQS review is due

Next 5-Year Review Schedule


The Future Is Uncertain

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Source: http://imgarcade.com/1/the-matrix-dodging-bullets-gif/

2015 Ozone NAAQS Implementation

2015 thru Oct 8: 4 areas > 70 ppb 2016: ?? Implementation: on schedule or delayed

http://thewanderfulengineerdude.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/neo-dodging-bullets.jpg


Preliminary 2013-2015 Ozone Design Values (as of 10/8/15)

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Potential Nonattainment Designations (preliminary 2015 DV)

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Area

2014 Design Value (DV)

2015 DV (as

of 9/4/15)

Designation at 70 ppb (prelim 2015 DV)

# NA at 70 ppb (2015 DV)

Dallas-Fort Worth CSA (including Hood County) 80 83 Nonattainment – Moderate 1

El Paso CSA 72 71 Nonattainment - Marginal 2

Houston-Sugarland CSA 80 80 Nonattainment - Marginal 3

San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA 80 78 Nonattainment - Marginal 4

Amarillo-Borger CSA 70 66 Attainment/Unclassifiable

Austin-Round Rock MSA 69 68 Attainment/Unclassifiable

Waco CSA 69 67 Attainment/Unclassifiable

Temple-Killeen MSA 72 69 Attainment/Unclassifiable

Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA 70 68 Attainment/Unclassifiable

Tyler-Jacksonville CSA 71 67 Attainment/Unclassifiable

Longview-Marshall CSA 71 68 Attainment/Unclassifiable


Air Quality Is Improving – NAAQS Becoming More Stringent

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Goal posts are being reset.

Rules change while the game is in play, old rules still apply.

Referees disagree (aka CAA litigation).

Picture source: Jackie Ploch, LTISD, 2013


Next Topic

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NAAQS Risk Management


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2

3

Key Takeaways and Historical Pictorial

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Impacts for Nonattainment Areas – Regional

Planning is more complex: – Regional Transportation conformity adds 3-12+ months to the planning

process – This slows updating:

• Funding changes • Project changes

– Increases plan and project coordination with TxDOT, MPO, EPA, TCEQ and FHWA;

– Dilutes limited Congestion Mitigation Air Quality (CMAQ) funds;

El Paso and San Antonio, two conformity demonstration options exist: – Baseline year test* – Build-no build test – Marginal and lower nonattainment areas (both areas likely marginal) must be

no greater than no-build or baseline – Key regulatory provisions: 40 CFR 93.119, 93.109(c)-(g), 93.122

*Baseline is likely to be either 2014 or 2017 (it’s based upon CAA triennial emission inventory).

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More Details on Interim Emissions Tests

The “less than baseline” test involves modeling the on-road emissions for the nonattainment area in a baseline year and in relevant future years to ensure that future on-road emissions are less than emissions in the baseline year.

The more complicated and more stringent “build/no build” test involves comparing a “build” scenario to a “no build” scenario. For this test, the MPO would need to model both a “no build” scenario and a “build” scenario for each analysis year and demonstrate that the “build” scenario did not increase emissions compared to the “no build” scenario. If the transportation plan or TIP did not pass these tests, the MPO would need to modify the plan and re-model the emissions until it was able to demonstrate that implementation of the plan would not increase emissions relative to the “no build” scenarios. Given the complex nature of how certain projects could affect the travel demand model and roadway performance, passing this test can be significantly more difficult than a “less than baseline” test. – It’s required in moderate and higher nonattainment areas.

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Impacts for Nonattainment Areas - Project

Increases potential for project delays; delays increase costs;

Requires project level conformity determination prior to environmental decision for projects subject to conformity

Exempt project examples: maintenance, grouped CSJ and safety projects

Requires regional conformity determinations prior to environmental decision for project: – Funding changes that impact fiscal constraint (federal, state, local and private); – Advances or delays; and – Design, concept and scope (DCS) changes.

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Monitor project changes throughout project development. Notify MPOs/TP&D/APD Planning immediately for project changes.

Newly designated areas adjust letting schedules to account for longer planning schedules.


A Project Schedule Change Requires Regional Conformity Update

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If a project’s advances or is delayed and the ETC crosses a conformity demonstration analysis year, a new regional conformity determination is needed

2015 Conformity YR 2020 2030

Project ETC

2016

Project ETC

2022

Project ETC

2028

Project ETC

2036

Analysis Year for Conformity Demonstration

Project schedule delayed

Project schedule advanced

New regional conformity determination is needed, prior to project decision

ETC = Estimated time of completion or open to traffic date


A Project Schedule Change Does NOT Trip Regional Conformity Update

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2015 Conformity YR 2020 2030 2016

Project ETC

2022

Project ETC

2028

Analysis Year for Conformity Demonstration

Project schedule advanced


Next Topic

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1

2

3

Key Takeaways and Historical Pictorial

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Climate Change – Change in NEPA Impacts Assessment

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End of the World as we know it?

No.

Picture Sources: USGS, NASA, clipart

Beginning of the World to be!


Vostok Ice Core Data – Nature Results in Massive Changes

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USGS Glacier Comparison Pictures

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Carroll Glacier, Alaska. August 1906 and June 21, 2004. Photo Credits: 1906 photograph by Wright, Charles Will. From the Glacier Photograph Collection. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology. Digital media. 2004 photograph by Molnia, Bruce F. From the Glacier Photograph Collection. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology. Digital media.

1906

2004


The Greenhouse Effect

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CEQ NEPA Climate Change and GHG Guidance

2nd Draft Issued December 2014 Final release anticipated by 12/31/2015 Proposed CEQ NEPA guidance would require disclosure of:

– Project level GHG emissions – Project’s impact on climate – Climate’s impact on the project (considering resiliency and

adaptation in project design, operation, maintenance and efficacy (e.g. storm surge removes – should it be rebuilt, if so how and where)

FHWA recommended addressing issues at the regional planning level.

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GHG Guidance Is a Major Change to Cumulative Impacts

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1936

1920s

Now, Wikipedia

1910

1961

Time interval: 80-100 years,

not 20-30 years

Impacts: global,

not local

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CongressAveJul2010.JPG


Cumulative Impacts Toolkit – Climate Change Best Practices

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New ENV Best Practices for CEs, EAs, EISs – For projects with public concerns or project complexity

regarding climate issues • Project areas with more frequent or severe storm surges,

flooding, drought, and/or high temperatures – Set of statements and prompts for addressing unique project

issues

Best Practices are at: http://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/env/toolkit/710-01-bpr.pdf Upon request, ENV happy to assist

http://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/env/toolkit/710-01-bpr.pdf

http://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/env/toolkit/710-01-bpr.pdf


Best Practices Discussion: Meaningful Analysis

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NHTSA EISs for nationwide vehicle CAFE Standards – impacts nominal – -global temperature change measured in the hundredths to thousandths of a degree) and speculate to the year 2100.

0.0179 MMt GHG cars and light trucks/lane mile/83 years (based upon NHTSA EIS no action highest emissions 2017-2100 = 155,540 MMt GHG, per RITA, 2013 U.S. lane miles = 8.6 million, divide national max emissions by U.S. lane miles)

Passenger Car and Light Truck Vehicle

Model Years

National GHG Reductions to 2100 (million metric tons)

Fuel Reduction, now to 2060 (billion

gallons)

Global Temperature Change in 2100 Compared to No

Action

Global Sea Level Change in 2100, Compared to No Action (inches)

2012-2016, 2010 EIS 654.7 61 0.013 ºF to 0.032 ºF - -

2017-2025, 2012 EIS 27,400 – 31,300 652 – 1,767 0.002 ºF to 0.027 ºF 0.016 - 0.06

Impacts of NHTSA CAFE Standards


Climate Change – Next Steps

Once CEQ finalizes, disclose phase-in schedule if applicable

Develop manual, guidance and toolkit

Training

With FHWA and TPP, started regional or state-wide

programmatic options assessment • Develop programmatic approaches, if allowed and assessment

determines they make sense

Will need some District volunteers

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Next Topic

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1

2

3

Key Takeaways

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Key Takeaways

Air quality is improving while the standards are becoming more stringent.

Conformity expands planning activities and times.

DCS, schedule and cost changes trip conformity; may delay projects.

New climate change best practices are available.

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Stay tuned for final CEQ NEPA Climate and GHG Guidance.


Contact Information

Ozone NAAQS Issues Jackie Ploch Work: 512.416.2621 | Mobile: 512.483.1969 | [email protected] Climate Issues Nicolle Kord Work: 512.416.2698 [email protected]

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mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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