Update on the Drought of 2011
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www.lcra.or g Update on the Drought of 2011 TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA
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Update on the Drought of 2011 . TWCA Mid Year Conference June 16, 2011 Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA. Rainfall Since October 1st. Rainfall Since October 1st. Rainfall Since Oct. 1 Midland 0.16 Marfa 0.25 Fort Stockton 0.08 El Paso 0.45 Brownfield 0.77. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Update on the Drought of 2011
www.lcra.org
Update on the Drought of 2011
TWCA Mid Year ConferenceJune 16, 2011
Bob Rose, Meteorologist LCRA
www.lcra.org
www.lcra.orgRainfall Since October 1st
www.lcra.orgRainfall Since October 1st
Rainfall Since Oct. 1
Midland 0.16Marfa 0.25
Fort Stockton 0.08El Paso 0.45
Brownfield 0.77
www.lcra.org
Rainfall Departure From NormalSince Oct.1
www.lcra.orgRainfall So Far in June
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While Many Areas Were in Flood, Texas Couldn’t Buy any Rain
www.lcra.orgOne of the Worst Droughts on Record
• 3rd Worst Drought in History next to 1918 and 1956.
• October through May, the driest of any 8 months on record.
• Driest on record for December through May, February through May, and March through May.
www.lcra.orgSoil Moisture Anomaly
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An Unusually Warm Start to Spring/Early Summer
www.lcra.orgLatest Drought Monitor
www.lcra.orgLatest Drought Monitor
www.lcra.orgComparison with Worst of 2009 Drought
September 1, 2009
www.lcra.orgLa Niña has Ended. Now in Neutral.
June 13th
www.lcra.orgTrending Back to La Niña?
El Nino
La Nina
www.lcra.orgNWS July through September Outlook
Temperature Precipitation
www.lcra.orgDrought Outlook through September
www.lcra.org
WetDry
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Composite PrecipitationJune through August
www.lcra.org
Composite PrecipitationSeptember through October
www.lcra.orgNAEFS Forecast through July 1st
Probability for Greater than 1/2 inch of Rain
www.lcra.org
Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane
Season
www.lcra.orgSea Surface Temperature Anomalies
www.lcra.orgNational Hurricane Center Outlook
www.lcra.orgColorado State ‘11 Hurricane Outlook
“We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
William Gray and Phil Klatzback, Colorado State University, June , 1st Update
16 Named Storms (normal is 9.6)
9 Hurricanes (normal is 5.9)
5 Major Hurricanes (normal is 2.3)
www.lcra.orgYears with Similar Conditions
1971, 2008
www.lcra.org1971
www.lcra.org2008
www.lcra.org2011 Hurricane Season Names
