Unified Financial Analysis Risk & Finance Lab
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Transcript of Unified Financial Analysis Risk & Finance Lab
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 1Date: 20.04.23
Unified Financial AnalysisRisk & Finance Lab
Chapter 13: The going-concern view / General mechanisms
Willi Brammertz / Ioannis Akkizidis
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 3Date: 20.04.23
Taxonomy of Analysis
3
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 4Date: 20.04.23
Financialevents
e1 e2 e3 en…
Investment Horizon
Income
Liquidity
L@R E@R V@R
Sensitivity
Value
Risk
Dynamic Simulation
Markets
Counter-parties
Behavior
Contracts
Natural Tim
e
Markets
Counter-parties
Behavior
Contracts
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 5Date: 20.04.23
Volatility in t0 ()
Time to Maturity
Yield
Static Analysis
Time
Liabilities
Assets
t0
Existing Business
Existing Business
NPV
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 6Date: 20.04.23
...
P&L
Yield curve t1
Yield curve t2
Time to Maturity
Yield curve t0Yield
Spread
Dynamic Analysis
TimeLiabilities
Assets New Business
New Business
t0
Existing Business
Existing Business
•New volume /reinvestment•Type of new business•Pricing
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 7Date: 20.04.23
Static analysis vs. going concern
>Reasons why going concern is important
> Life is a flow (and so is finance)
> Relative obscurity of the going concern view
> Increasing importance
> CCAR
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 8Date: 20.04.23
Elements of dynamic simulation
> Market forecast
> Other risk factors (Counterparties, Behavior)
> New production (of financial contracts)
> Operational cost (and revenues)
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 9Date: 20.04.23
Market Forecast
> Forward rates > <> Economic forecast
> Biased
> Economic forecast, real world (see chapter 4)
> Techniques> What-If
> Monte Carlo
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 10Date: 20.04.23
New productionVolume
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 11Date: 20.04.23
Conflicting volume targets
> Different strategy elements affect volumes
> Reinvestment
> Behavioral
> Target volumes
> Order of execution
> Needs conflict resolution
> Target volume is last
> „Not in addition“
> „In addition“
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 12Date: 20.04.23
New production IContract characteristics
>Main characterisitcs (no unnecessary detail!)
> Contract type
> Tenor
> Repricing
> Cycles (depending on CT)
> Few others... (depending on CT)
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 13Date: 20.04.23
New production IIAdding new contract volume
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 14Date: 20.04.23
New production IIITurning volume into contracts
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 15Date: 20.04.23
New production IVPricing
> Par rate in case of non-PAM‘s!
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 16Date: 20.04.23
New productionPricing under credit risk
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 17Date: 20.04.23
Behavior and counterparty
>Behavior> Normaly kept constant during dynamic
simulation runs
> Exception: stress testing
> Stochastic behavior: possible option for future
>Counterparty> Unrealistic to simulate single counterparties
> Exception: very large exposures
> Simulation on the level of rating groups
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 18Date: 20.04.23
Operational cost and „other revenues“
> Cost in static analysis normally neglected (if Δt=0, cost does not really exist)
> To neglect cost in dynamic analysis means enjoying a fantastic profitability (but only on paper)
> This can be easily seen in the dynamic balancing equation
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 19Date: 20.04.23
Financial analysis and book keeping
> Where are the book keepers statements?
> Where is the chart of accounts
> Closely related to the concept of balancing
> Distinguish between
> Static analysis
> Dynamic Analysis
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 20Date: 20.04.23
BalancingStatic
>The static balancing equation
>How is an inequality possible in t0?
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 21Date: 20.04.23
Dynamic balancingOn book-keepers terms only
> Example:
> Asset is simple coupon bearing bond 10%
> Liability is simple (linear) zero-coupon bond 10%
> Contradiction: P&L is 0 but equity shrinks: dynamic balancing equation is violated
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© Brammertz Consulting, 2009 22Date: 20.04.23
Dynamic balancingOn treasurers terms (then book keeping)
> Conclusion: Banks balance in reality on cash flow basis
> Books balance only after balancing on cash flow basis