UCD Business School, Johnny Ryan lectures 2016-2017, Week 2
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Transcript of UCD Business School, Johnny Ryan lectures 2016-2017, Week 2
FOUNDATIONS OF MANAGEMENT
THOUGHT. WEEK 2
@johnnyryan
WELCOME
@johnnyryan
#UCDmanage
WARM UP
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
Assault course for insects
@johnnyryan
1. Read/watch what we ask you 2. Be skeptical 3. Argue 4. Cite who you source from 5. Attend and participate
Recap on last week
@johnnyryan
REFLECTION
@JOHNNYRYAN
@JOHNNYRYAN
“Humans are rational decision makers”
Agree or disagree with this week’s claim:
DATA
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
THE SELF
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
Sunday Times/B&A poll, September 2016
@johnnyryan
12
Party Support Levels – Detailed Breakdown Trend (Excluding Undecided – Adjusted)
Q.8 And to which one of these groupings or types of Independents would you give your first preference vote?
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24 26
31 31
28 30
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26 26 25
23
20 19
20 19
20 20 22
26 27
25
30 28
19 19
21
17
16 17
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17 16
17 14
18
6 8
7 8
6 8
4 4 5 5 6
7
2
4 5
2 2 3
4 5
8 7 6
4 4
12 12 12 11
12 10 10 10
8 9
8
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Aug-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 2nd Feb-16 16th Feb'16
April '16 May '16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Sep-16
Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn FeinLabour Party Green Party Independent AlliancePeople Before Profit/Anti-Austerity Alliance Workers Party RENUA IrelandSocial Democrats Independent candidate
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Sinn Féin
Independent
Labour Party People Before Profit/AAA Independent Alliance Green Party Workers Party Social Democrats RENUA Ireland
4
1 *
%
2
@johnnyryan
SOCIAL ATTITUDES
@johnnyryan
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WORK
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
A FACTORY?
@johnnyryan
A LAUNDARY?
@johnnyryan
A SPAR?
@johnnyryan
A TECH OFFICE?
@johnnyryan
CORPORATE?
@johnnyryan
WHY DID YOU STUDY
BUSINESS?
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
400
425
450
475
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$60,000@johnnyryan
�53,000US figure, converted to Euro
@johnnyryan
5
* Full-time, full-year workers with a terminal Bachelor’s.
MEDIAN EARNINGS BY MAJOR GROUP*
Engineering
Computers and Mathematics
Business
Health
Physical Sciences
Social Science
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Communications and Journalism
Industrial Arts and Consumer Services
Law and Public Policy
Biology and Life Science
Humanities and Liberal Arts
Arts
Education
Psychology and Social Work
70,000
75,000
60,000
60,000
59,000
55,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
47,000
44,000
42,000
42,000
70,000
55,000
80,000
89,000
62,000
57,000
99,000
80,000
65,000
65,000
70,000
60,000
85,000
90,000
85,000
I
I Median Earnings for those with only a Bachelor’s Degree Median Earnings with Graduate Degree
64507_Brochure.indd 5 4/29/11 6:16 PM
5
* Full-time, full-year workers with a terminal Bachelor’s.
MEDIAN EARNINGS BY MAJOR GROUP*
Engineering
Computers and Mathematics
Business
Health
Physical Sciences
Social Science
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Communications and Journalism
Industrial Arts and Consumer Services
Law and Public Policy
Biology and Life Science
Humanities and Liberal Arts
Arts
Education
Psychology and Social Work
70,000
75,000
60,000
60,000
59,000
55,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
47,000
44,000
42,000
42,000
70,000
55,000
80,000
89,000
62,000
57,000
99,000
80,000
65,000
65,000
70,000
60,000
85,000
90,000
85,000
I
I Median Earnings for those with only a Bachelor’s Degree Median Earnings with Graduate Degree
64507_Brochure.indd 5 4/29/11 6:16 PM
5
* Full-time, full-year workers with a terminal Bachelor’s.
MEDIAN EARNINGS BY MAJOR GROUP*
Engineering
Computers and Mathematics
Business
Health
Physical Sciences
Social Science
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Communications and Journalism
Industrial Arts and Consumer Services
Law and Public Policy
Biology and Life Science
Humanities and Liberal Arts
Arts
Education
Psychology and Social Work
70,000
75,000
60,000
60,000
59,000
55,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
50,000
47,000
44,000
42,000
42,000
70,000
55,000
80,000
89,000
62,000
57,000
99,000
80,000
65,000
65,000
70,000
60,000
85,000
90,000
85,000
I
I Median Earnings for those with only a Bachelor’s Degree Median Earnings with Graduate Degree
64507_Brochure.indd 5 4/29/11 6:16 PM
source https://cew.georgetown.edu
@johnnyryan
How I measure the perfect job
PRESTIGE PURPOSEx xPAYMENT
@johnnyryan
I will be paid the same or
slightly more than before
The role will give me some access + some
credibility
The org does something I
value to some degree
Example of a mid-career job with balance
PRESTIGE PURPOSEx xPAYMENT
@johnnyryan
I will be paid significantly less than my
peers
The role will give me little
access or influence
The org does something I believe is
essential for the social good
Example of an early career job at a charity
PRESTIGE PURPOSEx xPAYMENT
@johnnyryan
PURPOSEI will be paid significantly less than my
peers
The role will give me
influential access to key
decision makers
The org does something I
value to some degree
Example of an early career job at a policy think tank
PRESTIGEx xPAYMENT
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
PERSPECTIVE
@johnnyryan
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Commercialisation of the Web
Peak: 10 March 2000
@johnnyryan
Finally here’s something about the Net to pique your interest. Real money. Real fast.
@johnnyryan
We are watching the beginnings of a global economic boom on a scale never experienced before. We have entered a period of sustained growth that could eventually double the world’s economy every dozen years and bring increasing prosperity for – quite literally – billions of people on the planet. We are riding the early waves of a 25-year run of a greatly expanding economy...
@johnnyryan
“the single greatestlegal creation ofwealth in the historyof the planet”.
- John Doerr
@johnnyryan
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”
- Charles Mackay
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
Tulips
1634 to 1637
Sempre Augustus species
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
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Commercialisation of the Web
Peak: 10 March 2000
@johnnyryan
IPO. $30 per share in the morning. Grew by 698% in a single day to $239.25 per share!
@johnnyryan
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@johnnyryan
- CNN, November 2000
‘a $1.7 trillion lesson’
@johnnyryan
-Warran Buffet
Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.
@johnnyryan
-Warran Buffet
They know that overstaying the festivities – that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future – will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party.
@johnnyryan
-Warran Buffet
Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.
@johnnyryan
Perspective
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
FADS@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
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@johnnyryan
80sgarishcolours
skin
wearingsunshadesindoors
bandanas
headbands
2gerskinvery,very2ght
pants
Shaggymanhair @johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
@johnnyryan
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
GROWTH IN A TIME OF DEBT
Carmen M. ReinhartKenneth S. Rogoff
Working Paper 15639http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138January 2010
This paper was prepared for the American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings. The authorswould like to thank Olivier Jeanne and Vincent R. Reinhart for helpful comments and the NationalScience Foundation Grant No. 0849224 for financial support. The views expressed herein are thoseof the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies officialNBER publications.
© 2010 by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. All rights reserved. Short sections of text,not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit,including © notice, is given to the source.
@johnnyryan
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
GROWTH IN A TIME OF DEBT
Carmen M. ReinhartKenneth S. Rogoff
Working Paper 15639http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138January 2010
This paper was prepared for the American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings. The authorswould like to thank Olivier Jeanne and Vincent R. Reinhart for helpful comments and the NationalScience Foundation Grant No. 0849224 for financial support. The views expressed herein are thoseof the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies officialNBER publications.
© 2010 by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. All rights reserved. Short sections of text,not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit,including © notice, is given to the source.
@johnnyryan
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
GROWTH IN A TIME OF DEBT
Carmen M. ReinhartKenneth S. Rogoff
Working Paper 15639http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138January 2010
This paper was prepared for the American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings. The authorswould like to thank Olivier Jeanne and Vincent R. Reinhart for helpful comments and the NationalScience Foundation Grant No. 0849224 for financial support. The views expressed herein are thoseof the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies officialNBER publications.
© 2010 by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. All rights reserved. Short sections of text,not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit,including © notice, is given to the source.
@johnnyryan
...and we are back!
@johnnyryan
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The price of houses in Dublin. (2005 value is 100%)
%data from CSO Residential Property Price Index
@johnnyryan
PESTPoliticalEconomic
SocialTechnological
@johnnyryan
PESTLEPoliticalEconomic Social
TechnologicalLegalEnvironmental
@johnnyryan
PERSPECTIVE
@johnnyryan
If you need to talk to Carolin: Any Monday 11.00-12.00 [email protected]
@JOHNNYRYAN
1. Context is the assumption antidote2. History is invaluable 3. Perspective enables fad detection
@johnnyryan
Summary