TRUMPING INTUITIONSARE PEOPLE AWARE OF HOW TERRORIST PRIMES

AFFECT THEIR SUPPORT FOR POLITICAL CANDIDATES?

Shayan ShokrgozarWashington University

Acknowledgments: Dr. Alan Lambert, Fade Eadeh, Emily Hanson, & Stephanie Peak.

Work supported by a grant from the American Psychological Association

“THE POWER OF THE SITUATION “ IN SHAPING ATTITUDES

Gordon Allport

TERRORIST MANIPULATION

EFFECTS OF SITUATION-BASED THREAT ON ATTITUDES• Experimental priming of terrorist threat socio-political attitudes (Jost,

Fitzsimons, & Kay, 2004; Lambert, Scherer, Schott, Olson, Andrews, O’Brien, & Zisser, 2010)

• Terrorist threat leads to greater support for hawkish politicians (e.g. George W. Bush, Donald Trump, hypothetical hawkish candidates; Eadeh, Dorison, Peak, Hanson, Slochower, Shokrgozar, & Lambert, 2016).

• Effects are mediated by mood, and in particular, anger.

Manipulation 0 = control1 = terrorist threat

Anger Attitudes towards “hawkish” politician

Mediator effect

++

DO PEOPLE RECOGNIZE THESE “JUDGMENTAL SHIFTS”? (cf. Nisbett & Wilson, 1977; Wilson & Dunn, 2004; see also Eadeh, Peak, & Lambert, in press; Lambert, Peak, Eadeh, & Schott, 2014)

RESEARCH QUESTION

Are people aware of their threat-driven boosts in support for Trump?

METHOD

• Participants and Design • N = 192 American adults, recruited from Amazon Mturk

• Experimental Manipulation• Random assignment to terrorist prime vs. control

MANIPULATION 0F TERRORIST THREAT In today’s session, we would like you to think about the threat posed by the terrorist organization commonly referred to as the Islamic State (i.e., "ISIS"/"ISIL"). As you may know, this is the group which has claimed responsibility for the execution of a number of individuals, including but not limited to American citizens.

1. Please write down, as specifically as you can, the kind of threat that this group poses to the United States. In other words, what has this group done in the past, or what might it do in the future, to threaten Americans?

2. Please describe, in as much detail as you can, the emotions that this terrorist group makes you feel. In particular, as you consider the threat posed by this group, what sort of feelings does it trigger in you? Please include any and all aspects of your own internal reactions, including thoughts, emotions, as well as any physiological changes (e.g. changes in heart rate).

CONSTRUCTION OF COMPOSITES• Mood

• Anger (average of angry, mad, irate, hostile, irritable)

• Fear (average of afraid, scared, fearful, terrified, frightened)

• Anxiety (average of nervous, anxious, worried)

• Sadness (average of sad, distressed, unhappy, pessimistic)

• Composite measure of attitudes towards Trump• Average of 14 Likert-type statements (e.g. Donald Trump will make America MORE

safe from the threat of terrorism, Donald Trump definitely has the kind of leadership skills needed to combat terrorism.)

• All alphas > .80

THE PRESENT RESEARCH

ISIS condition

Control Condition

Mood Measure

Mood Measure

Attitudes towards TrumpRandom

Assignment

Measure of subjective change

Attitudes towards Trump

PRELIMINARY RESULTS--MOOD

Anger Fear AnxietySadness

5

4

3

2

1

ISIS

Control

F(1, 190) = 26.31, p<.0001,partial η2 = .12

F(1, 190) = 26.25, p<.0001,partial η2 = .12

F(1, 190) = 10.49, p<.0001,partial η2 = .05

F(1, 190) = 67.83, p<.0001,partial η2 = .26

PRIMARY RESULTS: MEDIATIONAL EFFECTS OF MOOD ON ATTITUDES TOWARDS TRUMP

Manipulation 0 = control1 = ISIS threat

AngerFavorable attitudes towards Trump

b= .55 (.09), p<.001 b=.70 (.24), p<.01

b= -.39(.33). p= .23

Analysis via PROCESS program (Hayes, 2013) indicates significant mediation via anger (lower/upper confidence intervals= .1587/.7037, p<.05).

Supplemental analysis revealed no significant moderator effects of political attitudes.

SUBJECTIVE CHANGE QUESTION

In a preceding task, we had asked you to consider the threat of terrorism. Here we would like you to tell us the extent to which thinking and writing about terrorist threat might have affected your attitudes towards Donald Trump. You may believe that your attitudes became more positive, more negative, or that they did not change at all.

QUESTION FORMAT• To what extent, if at all, did this task affect your:*

1. overall attitudes towards Donald Trump?

2. general appraisal of his anti-terrorism policies?

3. feelings about his candidacy for president?

Composite measure based on average of all three items, alpha = .91

* We did a counter balance

OVERALL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONSES

Median= 1.10 SD=37.62N= 95

Composite Subjective Change Index

INITIAL CORRELATION ANALYSES

Subjective Change Index

Anger Index

Self-reported political attitudes*(Higher values indicate greater conservatism) r=.34, p<.001

r=.12, p=.25

r=.02, p=.80

AngerComposite attitudes towards Trump

b=.42(.19), p=.03

Subjective beliefs about attitude change

But, did participants subjective beliefs actually moderate this process?

b=.00(.00), p=.88 x

CURRENT/ON-GOING RESEARCH DIFFERENT APPROACH TO MEASURING SUBJECTIVE INSIGHT

When we experience a particular emotion, this has the potential to "color" our perception of the world. That is, our emotions can affect the kinds of judgments and attitudes we might have at that particular moment.

Here we'd like you to consider the extent to which your emotional reaction to the terrorist task might, or might not, have affected your attitudes towards Donald Trump.

FUTURE DIRECTIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Many thanks to The Leadership Alliance, The American Psychological Association, Washington University, Dr. Alan Lambert, Fade Eadeh, Emily Hanson, Stephanie Peak, and Rochelle Smith for their help and support.