TrueTrends By TrueCar February 2010

February 16th, 2010

by

Automotive intelligence covering new car prices, best car deals and more

The Truth Will Prevail

During the last month, TrueCar acquired actual sales transaction data for more than 43% of all new vehicles sold within the United States. We continue to work to grow this number aggressively. As of January 2010, this represents more than 300,000 vehicles sold nationally.

TrueCar is insatiable about data and our goal to find 100% of all purchase transactions, even if that means finding the same transaction multiple times from multiple sources within the car-buying ecosystem.

We obtain our data directly from car dealers, respected dealer management system (DMS) providers, and well-known data aggregators within the automotive space. We also acquire vehicle configuration data, customer and dealer incentives data, financing and loan data, vehicle registration and insurance data, and much, much more.

TrueCar believes the greater our informational accuracy, the greater benefit we provide to both dealers and consumers.

Model

Toyota Recall Changes the Auto Industry

1Febtuary 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.

Corolla Competitive Set Before and After the Recall *

Customers Migrating out of Toyota are Conquested by Competitors

Camry Competitive Set Before and After the Recall *

Price/Cost Change

-0.32%

-0.43%

-1.94%

+0.51%

+0.20%

+ 25.65%

+ 14.29%

+ 5.90%

+ 13.29%

- 11.06%

-1.92%+ 33.33%

Hyundai Elantra

Ford Focus

Chevrolet Cobalt

Honda Civic

Nissan Sentra

Kia Forte

Percentage Change in Web Traffic on TrueCar.com

TOYOTA

PER

CEN

TAG

E C

HA

NG

E

20%

30%

0%

10%

-10%

-30%

-20%

- 40%

KIA FORD

HONDANISSAN

25% FORD

25% HONDA

20%

10%

5%

15% Ford25%

Honda25%

Hyundai20%

Nissan10%

Kia5%

Other15%

Change inWeb Traffic Model

Price/Cost Change

- 1.80%

- 1.78%

+ 0.37%

+ 0.45%

- 0.80%

+ 26.81%

+ 26.39%

- 7.53%

+ 11.17%

+ 11.88%

- 2.47%- 24.70%

Hyundai Sonata

Ford Fusion

Chevrolet Malibu

Honda Accord

Nissan Altima

Kia Optima

Change inWeb Traffic

”Before recall” refers to the time period prior to the Toyota recall – January 1, 2010 to January 20, 2010. “After recall” refers to the time period following the Toyota recall – January 21, 2010 to February 3, 2010.

HYUNDAI

CHEVROLET

Toyota Corolla Toyota Camry- 44.53% - 35.34%---- ----

Score

TrueCar Price Flex Score

2

Least Flexible 2009 Models

ModelMake

Aspen

ForTwo

A3

XC60

XC90

Smart

Chrysler

Audi

Volvo

Volvo

1-Series

XC70

BMW

Volvo

XLRCadillac

A8

Lucerne

Audi

Buick

3

3

23

23

23

25

25

27

29

32

94

100

89

89

87

84

80

78

76

74

Score

Most Flexible 2009 Models

ModelMake

Ridgeline

MX-5 Miata

Civic

Grand Cherokee

Eclipse

Mazda

Honda

Honda

Jeep

Mitsubishi

C-Class

Elantra

Mercedes-Benz

Hyundai

EosVolkswagen

Routan

Nitro

Volkswagen

Dodge

What is the TrueCar Price Flex Score?

The TrueCar Price Score measures the elasticity of trans-action price by model. The Price Flex Score calculation dynamically incorporates the factors that effect price variance including the model’s transaction price range, current inventory and sales data. A vehicle experiencing extremely low inventory and a small range of transaction prices will have a low Price Flex Score. Don’t expect much of a discount from the TrueCar average transaction price on a vehicle with a low Price Flex Score. If a vehicle has a high Price Flex Score, however, you have the potential to strike

a deal significantly below (or above, if you’re not careful!) the TrueCar average transaction price. Here are the 2009 and 2010 models with the highest and the lowest Price Flex Scores. We also show the models with the highest and lowest Price Flex Score within each vehicle category. The scores range from 1 to 100. A score of 1 corresponds to the lowest Price Flex Score and indicates a very small -if any- negotiation power. A score of 100 indicates the highest Price Flex Score, meaning there is a big range of transaction prices for that model.

Score

Least Flexible 2010 Models

ModelMake

Q5

Q7

Navigator

ZDX

H2

Audi

Audi

Lincoln

Acura

Hummer

Canyon

A5

GMC

Audi

ColoradoChevrolet

1-Series

Traverse

BMW

Chevrolet

8

3

11

13

14

15

16

18

20

20

91

100

89

88

87

84

79

77

77

74

Score

Most Flexible 2010 Models

ModelMake

PT Cruiser

Ridgeline

Titan

MX-5 Miata

Eclipse

Honda

Chrysler

Nissan

Mazda

Mitsubishi

Civic

Cayenne

Honda

Porsche

VersaNissan

SLK-Class

XF

Mercedes-Benz

Jaguar

Febtuary 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.

TrueCar Price Flex Score (continued...)

3

Least and Most Flexible 2009 Vehicles ( by Body Type )

Least Flexible ModelBody Type

BMW 1-Series (Score: 25)

Smart ForTwo (Score: 3)

GMC Sierra (Score: 45)

Audi A3 (Score: 23)

Chrysler Aspen (Score: 3)

Coupe

Convertible

Pickup

Sedan

Sport Utility

Chevrolet Express Cargo (Score: 48)

Most Flexible Model

Mazda MX-5 Miata (Score: 94)

Honda Civic (Score: 89)

Honda Ridgeline (Score: 100)

Mercedes-Benz C Class (Score: 84)

Jeep Grand Cherokee (Score: 89)

Volkswagen Routan (Score: 76)Van

This largest incentives list totals both available consumer and dealer incentives. The incentives are ranked by largest percent discount off MSRP. Generally, incentives are active throughout the month in which TrueTrends by TrueCar is released. Though active at the time of the report’s release, incentives are subject to change without notice. Check for updates on the TrueCar price report for each model and with your dealer.

Least and Most Flexible 2010 Vehicles ( by Body Type )

Least Flexible ModelBody Type

BMW 1 - Series (Score: 20)

Audi A5 (Score: 16)

GMC Canyon (Score: 15)

Audi A3 (Score: 20)

Audi Q5 (Score: 3)

Coupe

Convertible

Pickup

Sedan

Sport Utility

Ford Econoline (Score: 44)

Most Flexible Model

Mazda MX-5 Miata (Score: 88)

Honda Civic (Score: 84)

Honda Ridgeline (Score: 91)

Mitsubishi Lancer (Score: 84)

Chrysler PT Cruiser (Score: 100)

Mazda 5 (Score: 75)Van

Largest Total 2010 Incentives for February

Top Models

1

Make / ModelRank % Discount From MSRP

2010 Toyota Tundra 2WD Truck 23%

2010 Hyundai Sonata 18%

2010 Pontiac Vibe 18%

2010 Mitsubishi Galant 18%

2010 Chrysler PT Cruiser Classic

$ Incentives

$5,500

$3,500

$3,000

$4,000

$3,000

MSRP

$24,405

$19,420

$16,820

$22,344

$18,995

2

3

4

5 16%


Greatest Discounts

4

1

Make

Top 2009 Makes Top 2010 Makes

Top 2009 Models Top 2010 Models

Rank % Below MSRP

HUMMER 19%

Buick 17%

Chevrolet 17%

Dodge 16%

Saab

2

3

4

5 15%

1

MakeRank % Below MSRP

Ford 13%

Chrysler 12%

Hyundai 11%

Jeep 10%

Lincoln

2

3

4

5 10%

1

Make / ModelRank % Below MSRP

2009 Nissan Titan 26%

2009 Chevrolet Cobalt 22%

2009 Kia Sorento 20%

2009 Dodge Ram 1500 19%

2009 HUMMER H3

2

3

4

5 19%

1

Make / ModelRank

Ford RangerFord Ranger 17%

2010 Hyundai Sonata 17%

2010 Jeep Grand Cherokee 17%

2010 Jeep Commander 16%

2010 Chevrolet Cobalt

2

3

4

5 16%

% Below MSRP


Top 2009 Makes

% B

ELO

W M

SRP

6%

11%

16%

21%

31%

26%

HummerBuickChevroletDodgeSaab

SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

How Do I Use This?

The greatest percent below MSRP helps identify the biggest consumer discounts of the month. Below, TrueCar ranks 2009 and 2010 vehicles with average transaction prices that comprise the greatest percent off the make’s or model’s average MSRP.

Greatest Discounts (continued...)

Top 2009 Models ( by Body Type ) Top 2010 Models ( by Body Type )

5

ModelBody Type% Below MSRP

Nissan Titan 26%

Chevrolet Cobalt 22%

Kia Sorento 20%

Chevrolet Corvette 19%

Kia Optima

Coupe

Pickup

Sport Utility

Convertible

Sedan 19%

Chevy Express Cargo Van 15%

Nissan Cube 6%

Van

Wagon

ModelBody Type% Below MSRP

Ford Ranger 17%

Hyundai Sonata 17%

Jeep Grand Cherokee 17%

Chevrolet Cobalt 16%

Volvo XC70

Sedan

Pickup

Sport Utility

Coupe

Wagon 15%

Volvo C70 14%

Toyota Sienna 11%

Convertible

Van

Best Day of the Month to Buy a Car


Consumer Tip of the Month

Our projections for the best and worst day to buy a new vehicle are rooted in an analysis of historical sales as well as short term forecasts. Our projections, over the next 31 days, suggest that the best day to buy a car will be on February 27th, and the worst day to buy a car will be on March 12th.

PRO

JEC

TED

AVE

RA

GE

DIS

CO

UN

T

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

Best Day to Buy a VehicleFebruary 27th, 2010Average Discount: 6.52%

Worst Day to Buy a VehicleMarch 12th, 2010Average Discount: 5.45%

2/17/10 2/21/10 2/25/10 3/01/10 3/05/10 3/09/10 3/13/10 3/1710

Feb 27, 2010

Mar 12, 2010

Top Vehicles ( by Body Type )

Top Vehicles (overall)

Greatest Price Drop Month Over Month

1

Year / Make / Model / TrimRank $ Drop From Last Month

2010 Ford Mustang 2dr Coupe GT Premium -$910

2010 MINI Cooper Hardtop 2dr Coupe S -$891

2010 Ford F-150 4WD SuperCrew 145" XLT -$850

2010 Volvo XC60 AWD 4dr 3.2L w/Moonroof -$607

2010 Lexus GX 460 4WD 4dr

2

3

4

5 -$468

Year / Make / Model / TrimBody Type $ Drop From Last Month

2010 Ford Mustang 2dr Coupe GT Premium -$910

2010 Ford F-150 4WD SuperCrew 145" XLT -$850

2010 Volvo XC60 AWD 4dr 3.2L w/Moonroof -$607

2010 Honda Accord Sedan 4dr I4 Auto LX -$412

2010 Lexus IS 250C 2dr Conv Auto

Pickup

Coupe

Sport Utility

Sedan

Convertible -$272

2009 Nissan cube 5dr Wagon CVT SL -$178

2010 Toyota Sienna 5dr 7-Pass Van CE FWD -$110

Wagon

Mini-van

6

For each body type, TrueCar tracks the average transaction price for each trim and lists vehicles with the greatest drop in price month over month. TrueCar also ranks the trims with the overall greatest drop in price from January 13th, 2010 to February 9th, 2010.


2009 Vehicles: Shortest Days in Inventory 2009 Vehicles: Longest Days in Inventory

1

Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory

Acura MDX 27

Infiniti G37 47

Chevrolet Tahoe 49

Toyota Venza 50

Kia Borrego

2

3

4

5 52

Hyundai Santa Fe 63

GMC Yukon Denali 64

Nissan Cube 64

Kia Rio

6

7

8

9 67

Chevy Silverado 2500 HD10 69

1


Saab 9-3 386

Chevrolet Cobalt 274

Chevrolet HHR 258

Chevrolet Impala 256

Volkswagen Routan

2

3

4

5 246

Hyundai Accent 239

Honda Civic 237

Chevrolet Aveo 232

Honda Accord

6

7

8

9 231

Chevrolet Corvette10 229

Shortest to Longest ( by Body Type )Industry Wide Average Days to Turn for January: 53 Days

Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory 1

9


Sport Utility 34

Wagon 57

Hatchback 59

Sedan 59

Coupe

2

3

4

5 62

Pickup 636

Van 67

Pickup

7

8 73

Convertible 106

2010 Vehicles: Shortest Days in Inventory 2010 Vehicles: Longest Days in Inventory

1


Lexus GX 460 10

Acura MDX 10

Cadillac Escalade 11

Chevrolet Equinox 12

Chevy Suburban C1500

2

3

4

5 12

Infiniti G37 12

Lexus LX 570 12

Hyundai Tucson 12

BMW X5

6

7

8

9 13

Hyundai Santa Fe10 13

1


Volvo C70 90

Hyundai Sonata 89

Kia Forte 85

Chevrolet Malibu 81

Dodge Grand Caravan

2

3

4

5 81

Honda Insight 77

Hyundai Elantra 73

Dodge Avenger 72

Ford Mustang

6

7

8

9 69

Jaguar XF10 68

January’s Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory

TrueCar ranks the vehicles that spend, on average, the shortest and longest days on the lot before they sell. We rank both by overall shortest/longest days in inventory as well as by category. Vehicles that spend little time in inventory are in high demand, while vehicles that spend an extended time in inventory are in low demand.

7Febtuary 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.

Percent Industry Share of Model Year Vehicles

Model Year Share shows the percentage share of 2009 model year vehicles sold within the last month versus vehicles of any other model year sold. Gen-erally, the higher the model year share value, the higher the discount a consumer can expect to receive on that given model. It also reflects that dealers are more likely to cut deals on any 2009 model in order to make room for a 2010.

Model Year Share

Highest Percentage of 2009 Vehicles Sold

8

Lowest Percentage of 2009 Vehicles Sold

Make / ModelRank % of Sales

1 Subaru 1%

Lexus 1%

Scion 2%

Buick 2%

Toyota

2

3

4

5 2%

Mazda 3%

Mercury 3%

Land Rover 3%

Volvo

6

7

8

9 3%4%

1

Make / ModelRank

Saab

Smart

Suzuki

Infiniti

Hummer

2

3

4

5

Kia

Hyundai

GMC

Chevrolet

6

7

8

9Mini10

% of Sales

98%

81%

61%

47%

45%

37%

29%

26%

26%17%10 Ford


Between 2009 and 2010 vehicles, 2010 shares 89% of total sales.

89%2010 Vehicles

11%

Febtuary 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc. 9

Appendix

About Us

TrueCar (www.truecar.com) is the authority in new-car pricing. It aggregates multiple data sources to show car buyers and dealers how much people actually paid for a particular car in their geographic area. It is offered online, free of charge - so anyone can know at any time what is considered a good or great price. Consumers no longer walk into the dealership only partially informed and fully suspicious: they walk in knowing exactly the price of a fair deal. Dealers gain real-time, unbiased information about

Contact Us

TrueCar, Inc.225 Santa Monica Blvd, 6th FloorSanta Monica, CA 90401(800) [email protected]

Visit us at www.truecar.com

marketplace pricing, helping them know how to price their cars to sell more and gain market share from other dealers. Led by a highly experienced team from the automotive and technology industries, TrueCar is based in Santa Monica, California.

Disclaimer

This report and the information contained herein is for your noncommercial, personal use on an “as-is, as available” basis and may be used by you for informational purposes only. TrueCar makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the information contained in this report and the results of the use of such information, including but not limited to implied warranty of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The information contained in this report may

include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Neither TrueCar nor any of its parents, subsidiaries, affiliates, or their respective partners, officers, directors, employees, or agents shall be held liable for any damages, whether direct, incidental, indirect, special, or consequential, including without limitation lost revenues or lost profits, arising from or in connection with your use or reliance on the information presented in this report.

TrueTrends By TrueCar February 2010

Automotive

Transcript of TrueTrends By TrueCar February 2010