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Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm Ltd Environmental Statement

Volume 3 – Annexes [Part 1] i RWE Npower Renewables Ltd

TRITON KNOLL OFFSHORE WIND FARM

ES Volume 3 (Annex O)

Socio-economic Baseline Report

Document reference: 05/01/03/o

Pursuant to: Reg. 5(2)(a)

Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm Limited

Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm Ltd Socio-economic Baseline Technical Report

RPS EOR0562-R-02-01


Socio-economic Baseline Technical Report Date: June 2011 Project Ref: EOR0562 Report No: EOR0562-R-02-01


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01


Socio-economic Baseline Technical Report

Prepared by:

Roger Tym & Partners and RPS

June 2011

RPS Energy

Goldsworth House

Denton Way

Woking

Surrey

GU21 3LG

Tel 01483 746500

Fax 01483 746505

Email [email protected]


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01

PROJECT REF:

EOR0562

REPORT NUMBER:

EOR0562-R-02-01

REPORT TITLE:

Socio-economic Baseline Technical Report

DATE

VERSION

DESCRIPTION

PREPARED

CHECKED

APPROVED

25 March 2011

For review

As title Zifa Sadriyeva (RTP), David Keddie (RTP) Eunice Stephenson

Eunice Stephenson, Peter Ireland

Matt Wilson

04 May 2011

Updated As title Eunice Stephenson

Peter Ireland Matt Wilson

12 May 2011

Updated As title Eunice Stephenson


14 June 2011

V6 For RWE review

As title David Keddie (RTP) Eunice Stephenson


File Location: (Oxford). O:/6105/project/reports

DISCLAIMER

The opinions and interpretations presented in this report represent our best technical

interpretation of the data made available to us. However, due to the uncertainty inherent in

the estimation of all parameters, we cannot, and do not guarantee the accuracy or

correctness of any interpretation and we shall not, except in the case of gross or wilful

negligence on our part, be liable or responsible for any loss, cost damages or expenses

incurred or sustained by anyone resulting from any interpretation made by any of our

officers, agents or employees.

Except for the provision of professional services on a fee basis, RPS does not have a

commercial arrangement with any other person or company involved in the interests that

are the subject of this report.

RPS cannot accept any liability for the correctness, applicability or validity for the

information they have provided, or indeed for any consequential costs or losses in this

regard. Our efforts have been made on a "best endeavours" basis and no responsibility or

liability is warranted or accepted by RPS.

COPYRIGHT © RPS

The material presented in this report is confidential. This report has been prepared for the

exclusive use of Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm Ltd and shall not be distributed or made

available to any other company or person without the knowledge and written consent of

Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm Ltd or RPS.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01

Table of Contents

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1

1.1 Scope of the Report ................................................................................................. 1

1.2 The Study Area ........................................................................................................ 1

1.3 Structure of the Report ............................................................................................. 3

2. Baseline Methodology ....................................................................................................... 5

2.1 Introduction............................................................................................................... 5

2.2 Literature review....................................................................................................... 6

2.3 References and Sources of information................................................................... 6

2.4 Baseline at commencement of construction ............................................................ 8

3. Consultation..................................................................................................................... 11

3.1 Introduction............................................................................................................. 11

3.2 North Lincolnshire Council ..................................................................................... 11

3.3 North East Lincolnshire Council ............................................................................. 14

3.4 East Lindsey District Council.................................................................................. 16

3.5 Associated British Ports (ABP)............................................................................... 17

3.6 RWE ....................................................................................................................... 17

4. Baseline Research........................................................................................................... 19

4.1 Introduction............................................................................................................. 19

4.2 A Guide to an Offshore Wind Farm (2010) ............................................................ 20

4.3 Towards Round 3: Building the Offshore Wind Supply Chain ............................... 21

4.4 Costs of offshore wind generation.......................................................................... 22

4.5 Learning Curves and Changing Product Attributes: the Case of Wind Turbines... 22

4.6 Analysis of the Employment Effects of the Operation and Maintenance of Offshore

Wind Parks in the UK .......................................................................................................... 23

4.7 South West Offshore Renewables Port Infrastructure ........................................... 25

4.8 Scottish Offshore Wind: Creating an Industry (August 2010) ................................ 26

4.9 Working for a Green Britain: Employment and Skills in the UK Wind and Marine

Industries, RenewableUK (2011)......................................................................................... 28

4.10 UK Offshore Wind: Building an Industry. Analysis and Scenarios for Industrial

Development, RenewableUK (2010) ................................................................................... 28

5. Socio-Economic Baseline................................................................................................ 36

5.1 Policy background.................................................................................................. 36

5.2 Commercial Operators ........................................................................................... 41


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5.3 Population and Labour Market ............................................................................... 44

5.4 Employment and Business by sector ..................................................................... 58

5.5 Labour Market Catchment...................................................................................... 71

5.6 Productivity and Gross-Value Added (GVA) .......................................................... 80

5.7 Education and Training .......................................................................................... 81

5.8 Summary of Employment Baseline ........................................................................ 87

5.9 Housing and social infrastructure ............................................................................. 89

5.10 Recreational and Tourist Resources...................................................................... 90


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1. Introduction

1.1 Scope of the Report

1.1.1 This Baseline Technical Report sets out the socio-economic baseline conditions for

the Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm (TKOWF) relevant to the development of the

offshore wind farm, including the turbines and their foundations, the offshore

substations, met masts, inter-array cables and construction and maintenance

vessels. The onshore baseline position has also been included, necessary to

undertake a cumulative assessment of the onshore components from landfall to the

onshore substation or converter station and associated grid connection and the

offshore cable route to be used for exporting power from the wind farm to the shore.

1.1.2 This report will inform the baseline section of the Socio-economic chapter of the

Environmental Statement (ES) that forms the basis of the socio-economic

assessment to be reported in the ES.

1.2 The Study Area

1.2.1 The socio-economic study area stretches from Aldborough in Yorkshire in the north to

Skegness in Lincolnshire in the south, with the Lincolnshire Wolds running along the

western edge (see Figure 1.1). It includes the Round 2 Greater Wash Strategic Area

and Round 3, Zone 4 (Hornsea) offshore, the administrative areas of North

Lincolnshire, North East Lincolnshire and East Lindsey District Councils, and the East

Midlands and Yorkshire & The Humber economic regions onshore. The onshore base

for construction, operations and decommissioning is yet to be finalised but for the

purposes of this assessment is assumed to be in Grimsby or the surrounding Humber

area due to the existing wind farm operation centres, the potential for appropriate port

facilities and the proximity to the site. Therefore for the basis of this socio-economic

assessment it is assumed that the greatest potential socio-economic effects would be

experienced within this area, with potential indirect and induced effects extending into

East Lindsey. (The baseline environment relating to population, business and

employment is reported as two study areas. Study Area 1 comprises North

Lincolnshire, North East Lincolnshire and Yorkshire & The Humber. Study Area 2

comprises East Lindsey and the East Midlands.)

1.2.2 The Round 2 Greater Wash Strategic Area (GWSA) is one of three strategic areas,

originally defined for offshore wind farm development in the ‘Future Offshore – A

Strategic Framework for the Offshore Wind Industry’ (DTI, Nov 2002), and covers an

area of offshore seabed beyond a defined coastal exclusion zone, off the coast of


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Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Norfolk. The Round 3, Zone 4 (Hornsea) lies between

34km and 190km off the Yorkshire coast, adjacent to the River Humber and 75km

north of the Wash (as shown on Fig 1.1.)

1.2.4 North Lincolnshire is a predominantly rural district outside the main urban area of

Scunthorpe and smaller market towns such as Barton-upon-Humber and the port of

Killingholme, which together with Immingham in neighbouring North East

Lincolnshire, are the busiest ports in the UK accounting for 12% of all port traffic.

Collectively, the Humber ports including Grimsby, Immingham, Hull and Goole are the

fourth busiest in Europe. The South Humber Bank Industrial Area between East

Halton and Immingham Dock provides significant opportunities for employment and

economic growth, with manufacturing playing an important role in the local economy

and tourism becoming increasingly important 1.

1.2.5 The district of North East Lincolnshire lies immediately south of North Lincolnshire

and includes the port towns of Grimsby and Immingham, the seaside resort of

Cleethorpes and, to the west, the rural landscape of the Lincolnshire Wolds. Most of

the population lives in the large urban centres with approximately 6% living in the

small rural villages. Grimsby and Immingham are of international trading significance,

with chemicals, manufacturing, port activities and food processing forming the main

economic base. Tourism, focussed on Cleethorpes, also accounts for a significant

number of local jobs2.

1.2.6 East Lindsey, the third largest district in the UK, lies to the south of North East

Lincolnshire and includes a long stretch of the Lincolnshire coast, including the

coastal resorts of Skegness and Mablethorpe. It is sparsely populated with its

population of around 140,000 people spread amongst some 200 settlements, only

four of which have a population in excess of 5000 i.e. Skegness, Louth, Mablethorpe

and Horncastle. The district does not have a dominant urban centre although Louth

and Skegness provide a wide range of goods, services and employment

opportunities. The district is reliant on agriculture and seaside tourism where there is

a high level of seasonal work. Farm diversification, IT and electronics and sustainable

tourism provide opportunities for widening the employment and economic base,

although the shortage of skilled workers may deter inward investment 3.

1.2.7 The Yorkshire Region consists of North Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire

and Humberside & North Lincolnshire, and includes the administrative areas of North

1 North Lincolnshire ‘Core Strategy Submission Draft’ May 2010

2 North East Lincolnshire Council ‘Core Strategy Revised Preferred Options’ November 2008

3 East Lindsey ‘Draft Core Strategy’ 2009


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Lincolnshire and North-East Lincolnshire District Councils. The East Midlands Region

consists of Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Leicestershire and

Northamptonshire, and includes the administrative area of East Lindsey District

Council.

1.2.8 Although there may be some socio-economic effects arising in North Norfolk, these

are not considered to be significant for the purposes of this assessment due to the

remoteness from the Humber region where the construction, operation and

decommissioning base have been assumed to be most likely to be sited, and

therefore has been excluded from the scope of this assessment. The assessment of

effects on commercial fisheries is set out in Chapter 8 of the ES (Volume 2).

1.2.9 Likewise, with reference to recreation and tourism, consideration was given to the

study areas defined for the assessment of landscape, seascape and visual effects

(see ES Volume 2: Chapter 9). Wireframes were produced for viewpoints from

Brancaster on the north Norfolk coast and Kilnsea, Spurn Head, East Riding for

Yorkshire. These illustrated that there would be no significant landscape, seascape or

visual and therefore were scoped out of the study area, with agreement of the

consultees. Given the lack of any visual influence, these have also been scoped out

of the baseline environment for recreational or tourist resources.

1.2.10 Therefore, North Norfolk has only been considered in relation to the commercial

operators located there, which operate within the Greater Wash Strategic Area.

1.3 Structure of the Report

1.3.1 Following this introductory chapter, the baseline methodology is set out in Chapter 2

and details of the consultations undertaken with relevant stakeholders to collate

socio-economic baseline data and/or verify the desk based data are provided in

Chapter 3.

1.3.2 Chapter 4 describes the baseline research that has been undertaken and Chapter 5

sets out the socio-economic baseline environment under the following headings:

• Policy background

• Commercial Operators

• Commercial Fisheries

• Population and Labour Market

• Employment and business by sector

• Labour Market Catchment

• Productivity and Gross-Value Added (GVA)


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• Education and Training

• Recreational and Tourist Resources

1.3.3 Where relevant, seasonal temporal change and medium and long term temporal

change to this baseline environment has been noted.


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2. Baseline Methodology

2.1 Introduction

2.1.1 The Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm socio-economic baseline study has been

undertaken to provide a review of current socio-economic conditions in the study area

and its reference areas, from which an assessment of effects arising from the

construction, operation and decommissioning of the project can be assessed. This

has included:

• Baseline research and literature review.

• Review of relevant policy and plans for the administrative districts within the

baseline study area.

• Desk top study to collate baseline information on the following:

• Population and Labour Market

- Key demographics

- Economic activity

- Unemployment

- Workforce qualifications

• Employment and business by sector (including tourism sector profile

and volume and added data)

• Travel-to-work and drive-time analysis

• Productivity and Gross-Value Added (GVA)

• Education and Training

• Other socio-economic indicators

• Desk top study to identify offshore and onshore recreational and tourist

resources. These comprise parks, leisure facilities, visitor attractions, sailing

clubs, marinas, areas of access land and public rights of way (PRoW),

(including long distance recreational routes) from a variety of sources

(Ordnance Survey mapping, Definitive Maps, Royal Yachting Association

(RYA), tourist information and information available from local authorities and

other relevant stakeholders).

• Consultation with the relevant local authorities, and other stakeholders as

appropriate.

2.1.2 Where appropriate, seasonal temporal change and medium and long term temporal

change to this baseline environment has been highlighted.


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2.2 Literature review

2.2.1 A literature review of recent publications has been undertaken to understand current

and future developments and thinking in relation to the assessment of potential socio-

economic effects arising from offshore wind development. This review has provided:

• Assumptions for the economic impact model and scenarios.

• An input into the refinement of the socio-economic methodology.

• An understanding of the current issues faced by the offshore wind industry.

2.2.2 Full details of the publications are provided in Chapter 4.

2.3 References and Sources of information

2.3.1 This report has been informed by data and documents pertinent to the socio-

economic study area i.e. two English economic regions (East Midlands and Yorkshire

and The Humber), three local authority district areas (East Lindsey, North

Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire), offshore the Round 2 Greater Wash

Strategic Area and the Round 3, Zone 4 (Hornsea), together with information

provided through consultations with key stakeholders described in Chapter 3 below. It

relates to both the offshore and onshore environments.

2.3.2 Information sources and relevant documents used in the compilation of the socio-

economic baseline are listed in Table 2.1 below.

Table 2.1 Information sources and documents

Scale Source

National DECC:UK Renewable Energy Strategy (2009)

UK Plc : A Financial Analysis of Corporate Britain, Hampton (2005)

English Partnerships: Employment Densities: A Full Guide (2001)

English Partnerships: Additionality Guide (2008)

Spon’s Architects’ and Builders’ Price Book (2009)

Sport England: Active People Survey (2006)

APHO and Department of Health (2010) Health Profiles, from http://www.apho.org.uk/default.aspx?QN=HP_FINDSEARCH [accessed on 20 December 2010]

APHO (2010) GP Practice profiles in North East Public Health Observatory from http://www.nepho.org.uk/data.php?apho#Comparisonpracticeandperformance [accessed on 5 of January 2011]

Regional Office for National Statistics

Census data 2001

Sub-national Population Projections 2008

Economic output data


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Scale Source

ABI Regional Extract

Yorkshire Forward

Regional Economic Strategy 2006-2015

Northern Way Steering Group

Moving Forward: The Northern Way Growth Strategy (2004)

Tourism Strategies

East Midlands Tourism Strategy

East Midlands Strategic Plan 2008 - 2011

Recreation

Royal Yachting Association and Cruising Association: Sharing the Wind: Recreational Boating in the Offshore Wind Farm Strategic Areas 2004

District/

County

Local Plans

North Lincolnshire Local Plan

North East Lincolnshire Local Plan

East Lindsey Local Plan

Core Strategies

North Lincolnshire Submission Draft Core Strategy (2010)

North East Lincolnshire Core Strategy Revised Preferred Options

East Lindsey Draft Core Strategy

North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire Councils: Strategic Housing Market Assessment - Market Review 2008.

North Lincolnshire Council: Employment Land Review (2010)

North Lincolnshire Council: North Lincolnshire Neighbourhood Profile for Ferry Ward (2010)

North East Lincolnshire NHS: Strategic Plan 2010-2016

North Lincolnshire Council: Housing Topic Paper (2010)

North Lincolnshire Council (2005) Scunthorpe Strategic Development Framework, Yorkshire Forward, Leeds

Other Annual Business Inquiry

4coffshore.com

Birdnerd.co.uk (2007) East Yorkshire birdwatching locations from http://www.birdnerd.co.uk/otherfeatures/birdingineastyorkshire.htm [accessed on 10 January 2011]

BVG Associates for the Crown Estate (2010) A Guide to an Offshore

Wind Farm,

BVG Associates for the Crown Estate (2010) Towards Round 3:

Building the Offshore Wind Supply Chain

Crown Estate (2010) UK Offshore Wind Report 2010

Coulomb and Neuhoff (2006) Learning Curves and Changing Product

Attributes: the Case of Wind Turbines

Douglas Westwood (2009) The World Offshore Wind Market 2009 –

2013

Ernst and Young for DECC (2009) Cost of and Financial Support for


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Scale Source

Offshore Wind

Offshore Design Engineering for DTI (2007) Study of the Costs of

Offshore Wind Generation

Oxford Economics (2010) Analysis of the Employment Effects of the

Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Parks in the UK

RenewableUK (2010) Onshore costs / benefits study

RenewableUK (2010) UK Offshore Wind: Building an Industry.

Analysis and Scenarios for Industrial Development

RenewableUK (2011) Working for a Green Britain. Employment and

Skills in the UK Wind and Marine Industries

RTP (2008) South West Offshore Renewables Port Infrastructure

Scottish Offshore Wind (2010) Creating an Industry

UK Centre for Economic and Environmental Development for Friends

of the Lake District (2002) The Scope for Undergrounding Overhead

Electricity Lines’

Roger Tym and Partners for SHETL and SPT (2006).Scotland –

Northern Ireland Interconnector: Ex post Tourism Impact Assessment

TEP for SP Power Systems Ltd (2009) Proposed 132kV Overhead

Line Between Legacy and Oswestry ES

Roger Tym and Partners for SHETL and SPT (2004).Beauly Denny Environmental Statement

2.3.3 Further information pertinent to the socio-economic baseline was provided verbally by

stakeholders during consultation meetings. Project-specific surveys relating to the

socio-economic baseline have not been carried out in relation to the Triton Knoll

Offshore Wind Farm.

Data limitations

2.3.4 Some of the statistical data are not available for the socio-economic study areas as

they are defined. Gross Value Added data are only available at sub-regional,

regional, and national levels. This means that whilst it is possible to show sub-

regional level data for North and North-East Lincolnshire combined, the data for East

Lindsey are approximated based on that for the county of Lincolnshire.

2.4 Baseline at commencement of construction

2.4.1 Given that the Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm is not likely to commence

construction and operation until 2017/2018, it has been necessary to consider the


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 9

relevant date of the baseline for the assessment and against which potential socio-

economic effects can be predicted. It is anticipated that the outputs / impacts derived

from the construction and operational and maintenance (O+M) phases of the project

will not vary significantly with a baseline date beyond 2017/2018, given the best

available information currently available (e.g. there would be no significant difference

between 2017/18 and 2020 or 2022). The outputs and impacts would be informed by

comparative study benchmarks and by information and data provided by RWE and

other consultees.

2.4.2 The key issue relevant to a predicted future socio-economic baseline (and

subsequently the impact assessment) will be the capacity and capability of the local

and sub-regional catchment to absorb the economic and related employment

requirements of the project in the intervening years (i.e. between 2011 and 2017/18).

2.4.3 Given the current limited capabilities of the regional and sub-regional business,

commercial and industrial infrastructure to service the offshore wind industry and the

strategic approach adopted by both the public and private sectors to strengthen these

capabilities, in addition to the recently announced investment projects in and around

the Humber, it can reasonably be considered that the longer the timeframe before

construction of the Triton Knoll project commences, then the greater the capacity of

the infrastructure of the socio-economic study area and sub-region to accommodate

the requirements of the local offshore wind industry, and vice versa.

2.4.4 Two alternative options are available to address such baseline assessment issues.

They are:

• Projection of the potential socio-economic baseline position in 2017/2018 based

upon projections and forecasts of economic growth sourced from Yorkshire

Forward; or

• Commentary of the projected capacity of the region and sub-region to service the

offshore wind industry’s requirements.

2.4.5 Projecting to a 2017/2018 baseline position would rely on a number of assumptions

which would increase the level of uncertainty and be open to criticism. This option is

therefore rejected.

2.4.6 On the other hand a review and position statement of projected infrastructural

strengthening and promotion of more manufacturing / fabrication capabilities in the

region and sub-region would better and more robustly inform the socio-economic

baseline, including the catchment area’s capability of meeting the requirements of the

TKOWF in terms of construction, O+M, and decommissioning skills and labour


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 10

requirements. This has included an assessment of the effect of projecting the socio-

economic baseline on the creation of additional jobs in a qualitative manner.

2.4.7 The baseline position in relation to recreational and tourist resources has been based

on current data available and strategies and plans in place or in preparation to

develop these resources.


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3. Consultation

3.1 Introduction

3.1.1 During the collation of the socio-economic baseline data meetings were held with,

and socio-economic information requested, from the following stakeholders:

• North Lincolnshire Council

• North East Lincolnshire Council

• East Lindsey District Council

• Associated British Ports

3.1.2 The purpose of this consultation was to make contact with the relevant key individuals

within these bodies and to seek their input on the following:

• Verification that the socio-economic baseline study had identified and

accessed the appropriate datasets to enable the current economic and social

conditions within the stakeholders’ area of responsibility and the wider region

to be characterised.

• The provision of additional data and information that the stakeholder has or

knows about.

• The changes that might be expected to take place over the next 5-10 years

without offshore wind (i.e. the definition of a future baseline).

• The changes that might be anticipated within the local economy in the next 5-

10 years with the planned growth of offshore wind in the North Sea and in

relation to the TKOWF project in particular.

• The potential opportunities and risks to the local economy from the

development of offshore wind.

3.1.3 In addition, employment and economic data was provided in consultation with RWE

based on past and current wind farm projects to inform the current and future

baseline environments.

3.2 North Lincolnshire Council

3.2.1 The discussion with North Lincolnshire Council (NLC) in relation to the current and

predicted future socio-economic baselines for the TKOWF resulted in the provision of

information described below.

Economy/Employment/Infrastructure

3.2.2 The historic strength in heavy engineering and steel production in the district offers

much to the offshore wind industry in terms of production of components and as part


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 12

of the supply chain. There has been continued investment in the area with, in

particular the private sector identifying a number of opportunities presented by

offshore activity.

3.2.3 A ‘Connectivity Study’ is being undertaken by Pell Frischmann on opportunities to link

the Humber Gateway to Scunthorpe and other focal points of jobs and housing

including Humberside Airport. This includes road upgrades to the M180, A180 and

A160 improvements, together with other transport improvements.

3.2.4 Access and road improvements on the A160/A180 to assist in the operation of the

Humber Gateway were programmed for 2012/2013, but have been delayed until

2015. However, there is a hope of commencing these earlier should the funding

become available from central government.

3.2.5 An application for development of the Killingholme Marine Energy Park – a major

offshore wind manufacturing site and installation port - is likely to be submitted to the

IPC in summer 2011. Following the registration and determination periods it is

estimated that a decision will be made by the end of 2012.

3.2.6 The potential of Humberside Airport was highlighted. Historically, the airport has

always had strong links with the North Sea oil & gas industry, with helicopters based

there. Accommodation is now being provided for offshore workers transiting to / from

offshore sites on a 5 year trial basis and if successful is likely to result in permanent

hotel facilities being provided. Other resources at Humberside include an airline

pilots’ school, maintenance facilities and UK and other continental route links. This

represents a valuable resource for offshore wind activities.

3.2.7 An area in the Isle of Axholme (west of Scunthorpe) including the old Sandtoft Airfield

has been identified as a potential mixed use estate for B1/B2/B8 uses and as an

ancillary industrial area, which could also be used for offshore renewables related

activities.

Housing

3.2.8 The Lincolnshire Lakes project in Scunthorpe has been identified within the Core

Strategy as a sustainable housing development with associated community facilities.

The examination of the Core Strategy is now completed with the Inspector’s report

expected in April 2011. An area action plan for the Lakes will follow, comprising the

delivery of 6,000 homes up to 2026, together with mixed use development including a

‘high-tech’ business park able to contribute to / accommodate economic and business

activities related to the offshore wind industry. Community facilities and green


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infrastructure recreational links will also form an important element within the

proposed development and the area will be integrated with the wider Scunthorpe

urban area. At present NLC is working with a joint-venture partner to deliver the

scheme.

3.2.9 Housing growth across North Lincolnshire will be focussed upon Scunthorpe, with

small scale development in the market towns of Barton upon Humber and Brigg. Any

opportunities for wider development or infrastructural upgrading, which derive from

the offshore wind industry, will be focussed on these settlements.

3.2.10 During the consultation, NLC considered it unlikely that there would be any significant

effects on housing supply or educational, health or other community facilities in the

district during the construction, operational or decommissioning phases of the

TKOWF.

Education/Training

3.2.11 NLC are working with the University of Lincolnshire (UoL) to develop an academic /

practical course on skills required by the offshore wind industry and in related

technical studies. This is designed to exploit the potential offshore opportunities

through the focus of the Humber Gateway. It is likely to be located at the UOL

campus in the first instance but the aim of NLC is to have an outreach capability local

to the NLC area.

Other

3.2.12 The new Local Economic Partnership (LEP) replacing the previous Regional

development Agency (RDA) arrangements is not yet in place and both Lincolnshire

and South Yorkshire LEPs are very keen to have NLC and the Humber Gateway as

part of their area. NLC is continuing to have discussion with both as to future

arrangements.

3.2.13 NLC confirmed that they would investigate access to the REM for use in the TKOWF

socio-economic assessment. They also stated that they would contact other

colleagues in NLC regarding any additional information that it would be appropriate to

access. No further response has been received to date.

Opportunities and Risks

3.2.14 NLC considered that the key risk to the district in relation to the TKOWF would be that

investment from the project did not come into the Humber region in terms of job and


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 14

supply chain opportunities arising during the construction and operation &

maintenance stages, and that other areas would benefit from these opportunities.

3.3 North East Lincolnshire Council

3.3.1 The discussion with North Lincolnshire East Council (NELC) included the background

to the project, the proposed approach to the socio-economic assessment and the

baseline assessment data sources used. A request was made for any data or

information which NELC might have which would enhance the understanding of the

background structure of the economy and its capacity to absorb and benefit from the

project outputs. NELC provided the following comments and information.

Economy/Employment/Infrastructure

3.3.2 The Regional Econometric Model (REM) seems to show NELC in a worse position

than it actually is. A number of businesses have been closing their plants and

factories elsewhere in the UK and internationally and are consolidating in North East

Lincolnshire due to its unique industrial position. Recent examples include Kerry

Foods, a frozen food producer, announcing expansion at Grimsby and closure in

Wales, and Novartis announcing closure of its plant in Horsham with the Grimsby

plant retained. This is not picked up and identified within the REM. The effects of the

emerging offshore wind market do not form part of the REM’s assumptions to date.

3.3.3 It was confirmed that the claimant count data in the socio-economic baseline should

be checked for seasonality.

3.3.4 Petrochemicals and food processing are strongest economic sectors in North East

Lincolnshire. The chemical and refinery industry is represented by the Chemical,

Refinery and Allied industries who initiated the CATCH project. The Centre for

Assessment of Technical Competence (CATCH) in Stallingborough

(http://www.catch-uk.org/contact.html) provides training for process industry

operatives, engineering and is also appropriate for offshore industry activities. This

facility is industry, NELC and ERDF funded and there are proposals to double the

numbers of apprenticeships on offer and provide skills training and skills upgrading.

3.3.5 Supply chain opportunities are being picked up through the Humber Chemical Focus

and Renewables Partnerships and the Team Humber Marine Alliance.

3.3.6 The historic strength in heavy engineering and steel production also offers much to

the offshore wind industry in terms of production of components and as part of the

supply chain and there has been continued investment in this area.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 15

3.3.7 In relation to local skills and industry structure, research is being undertaken through

Regional Improvement Funding into what skills sets are on offer through existing

industry in the area which could be aligned to the requirements of the offshore wind

industry and the dangers associated with losing skills from existing industries to

offshore wind. This is being undertaken for the four local authorities in the wider area

and is due to report by the end of June 2011. In addition, NELC are working closely

with Yorkshire Forward (YF) to transfer YF’s knowledge on skills.

3.3.8 A renewables study is currently being undertaken on behalf of NELC and NLC which

is looking at supply chain opportunities and identifying skills requirements. It is

anticipated that it will report in Autumn 2011.

3.3.9 With regard to Regional Growth Funding (RGF) an assessment of offshore wind O&M

issues for the area and the supply chain potential for the port of Grimsby has been

undertaken and has now led to a series of bids for funding. This has flagged up

improvements required for operational purposes and greater efficiency and identified

actions required. Projects include delivering specific infrastructure at the port to

enable offshore capability e.g. infrastructure provisions and access arrangements.

The deadline for the first round of bids was 25 March 2011.

3.3.10 In relation to other renewables and energy related issues, the production of bio-fuels,

bio-diesel, bio-ethanol activities in the area is well funded, with port availability and

capabilities for the importation of feedstock and the export of product output providing

the NELC with a competitive advantage. The potential for biomass projects is being

exploited, again with feedstock availability being a competitive advantage. NELC is

well placed for these sectors due to following factors:

▫ Land is flat and still relatively cheap.

▫ There is infrastructure to support raw materials (agricultural hinterland).

▫ Port facilities are available to export and import biomass material.

▫ 27% of UK refining capacity is located in the South Humber.

▫ Hatfield colliery and CCS project (currently in administration) also offers

future technology potential.

3.3.11 At the Europarc industrial park in Grimsby, 350 acres are still available in Phase 4 for

development to service all the new manufacturing facilities and offshore wind industry

requirements. The A18/A180 Link Road will be delivered to remove freight traffic

heading to Immingham from residential areas.

Housing


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 16

3.3.12 During consultation, NELC did not consider housing to be an issue with regard to the

TKOWF project. Housing numbers were driven by the regional spatial strategy and

were subsequently revised downwards by approximately 1000 by NELC, although

they are now planning (largely based on the RSS figures) to take account of future

developments in the renewables sector. They are currently working to deliver 520

houses a year, although some housing sites currently available are awaiting

developer interest in them. Affordability is anticipated to change in line with increases

in income.

Hotel space

3.3.13 There has been some improvement in the hotel stock in the area, although there is

room for more hotel space. The Humber Royal Hotel has recently invested in a £2m

upgrade; the Travelodge is extending because they are always full; Humberside

Airport has got a temporary hotel facility for transiting oil and gas workers; and there

has been a lot of marketing exposure for the floating hotel in Grimsby (Conoco).

Recreation and Tourism

3.3.14 During consultation, NELC did not raise any concerns about the development of the

TKOWF project in relation to recreation and tourism in their area.

3.4 East Lindsey District Council

3.4.1 The background to the TKOWF project, the approach to the socio-economic

assessment and the baseline assessment data sources was set out for East Lindsey

District Council (ELDC), together with a request for any data or information which

ELDC might have which would enhance the understanding of the background

structure of the economy and its capacity to absorb and benefit from the project

outputs.

3.4.2 ELDC provided the following comments and information:

• There are several wind farms off the coast in the area but their economic impact

on East Lindsey is considered to be minimal.

• Country’s first solar park is expected to come online in East Lindsey soon.

• More businesses are located in the northern part of East Lindsey.

• East Lindsey has a sector cluster around motorsport.

• The claimant count data in the socio-economic baseline should be analysed for

seasonality.

• The coastal study in Lincolnshire is likely to result in a cap on housing

development along the coast.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 17

• School provision up to age 16 is healthy with good results. There is a demand for

places from Grimsby due to the quality of provision in East Lindsey.

• There is a 5 year plan to create a Lincolnshire Country Park by 2016.

• A town centre manager in Louth has been appointed with the role of attracting

people to live in the town and spend some of the income there.

3.4.3 ELDC believes that the main risk associated with the TKOWF project is the inability of

the district to benefit from the economic opportunities resulting from it, although the

nature of the benefits that could potentially accrue are likely to be affected by its

predominantly rural and tourist economy.

3.5 Associated British Ports (ABP)

3.5.1 A meeting was held in Hull in May 2011 at which ABP outlined the current and

predicted capabilities of the Port of Hull in relation to manufacturing and construction

activities associated with the offshore wind farm industry, including the proposed

Siemens facility for the construction/assembly of offshore wind turbines.

3.5.2 In addition to this meeting, a number of meetings between RWE npower renewables

and ABP have taken place throughout the development of the Triton Knoll project.

3.6 RWE

3.6.1 Employment and economic data was provided in consultation with RWE based on

past and current wind farm projects to inform the socio-economic baseline

environments and employment and economic estimates in relation to the TKOWF

project. In addition, the anticipated procurement strategy and supply chain for the

project was provided.

3.6.2 The Gwynt y Môr Offshore Wind Farm located off the coast of North Wales is

currently under construction. It is to be built with an installed capacity of 576

megawatts in Liverpool Bay, approximately 18km off the North Wales coast. The

estimated assumed employment figures for the project are listed in below:


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 18

Table 3.1 Gwynt y Môr OWF, assumed employment figures

Person-years (total)

Person-years

(locally)

Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs

(total)

FTE jobs (locally)

Construction Direct 8,870 1,130 880 110

Construction Indirect 2,970 280 300 30

Total Construction 11,800 1,420 1,180 140

Decommissioning direct

220 30 3

Decommissioning indirect

Total Decommissioning

300 40 30 4

Operations direct 90 90

Operations indirect 35 13

Total Operations 125 103

3.6.3 The procurement strategy for the TKOWF project has not yet been established,

although it is planned to tap into existing supply chain events in the area to

investigate the opportunities to use local suppliers, where possible. It is assumed that

the supply base and logistics port will be based out of the Humber and that there may

be potential infrastructure improvements required to local port facilities.

3.6.4 The capital expenditure covering both the development and construction costs of the

TKOWF are currently estimated to be in the region of £4 billion. This equates to

approximately £3.3 million per megawatt of installed capacity (based on the

installation of 1200MW). This does not take account of decommissioning costs.

3.6.5 In terms of expenditure in the local area, the Thanet Offshore Wind Farm spent

approximately 20% of their contract costs in the UK and London Array Offshore Wind

Farm is expected to spend estimated 25%4. It is anticipated that the TKOWF will

make at least a similar contribution to the UK economy.

4 RTP estimate based on declared contractors on 4coffshore.com web-site and OWT

component prices in the BVG Associates report for the Crown Estate.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 19

4. Baseline Research

4.1 Introduction

4.1.1 The research undertaken to inform the socio-economic baseline, including the cumulative

baseline in relation to the onshore elements of the TKOWF, has included a review of the

following published data, together with data from other offshore wind farm developments off

the east coast:

• A Guide to an Offshore Wind Farm, BVG Associates for the Crown Estate (2010).

• Towards Round 3: Building the Offshore Wind Supply Chain, BVG Associates for the

Crown Estate (2010).

• UK Offshore Wind Report 2010, The Crown Estate (2010).

• The World Offshore Wind Market 2009 – 2013, Douglas Westwood (2009).

• Study of the Costs of Offshore Wind Generation, Offshore Design Engineering for DTI

(2007).

• Cost of and Financial Support for Offshore Wind, Ernst and Young for DECC (2009).

• Learning Curves and Changing Product Attributes: the Case of Wind Turbines, Coulomb

and Neuhoff (2006).

• Analysis of the Employment Effects of the Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind

Parks in the UK, Oxford Economics (2010).

• South West Offshore Renewables Port Infrastructure, RTP (2008).

• Creating an Industry, Scottish Offshore Wind (2010).

• Onshore costs / benefits study, Renewables UK (2010).

• Working for a Green Britain. Employment and Skills in the UK Wind and Marine

Industries, RenewableUK (2011).

• UK Offshore Wind: Building an Industry. Analysis and Scenarios for Industrial

Development, RenewableUK (2010).

• The Scope for Undergrounding Overhead Electricity Lines (2002)

• Beauly - Denny 400kv Overhead Line Upgrading Environmental Statement Chapter 27

Tourism and Recreation (2004).

• Scotland – Northern Ireland Overhead Grid Interconnector: Ex post Tourism Impact

Assessment (2006).

• Proposed Reinforcement of 132kv Overhead Line between Legacy and Oswestry

Environmental Statement (2009)

4.1.2 A summary of the information relevant to the socio-economic baseline from each of these

publications is provided below, together with a commentary on how this data aids the

assessment of the potential socio-economic effects of the TKOWF project.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 20

4.2 A Guide to an Offshore Wind Farm (2010)

4.2.1 This report by BVG Associates for the Crown Estate which was published in 2010, looks at

the offshore wind farm delivery by phases of development, turbine components and

installation works. The report provides up-to-date information on approximate costs of all of

these elements of an offshore wind project utilising 5MW turbines. The average cost per 1

MW from this data is stated as £3.05 million which is broken down as follows:

Table 4.1 Breakdown of average costs per MW

£ million

Development consent 0.12

Environmental surveys 0.01

Coastal surveys 0.0002

Met station 0.01

Sea bed surveys 0.03

Engineering and design 0.002

Human impact 0.0002

Wind turbine 1.15

Cables 0.16

Foundations 0.60

Sub-station 0.10

Onshore sub-station 0.08

Installation and commissioning 0.80

Total cost per 1 MW 3.05

Source: A Guide to an Offshore Wind Farm. (BVG Associates, 2010)

4.2.2 In order to estimate the socio-economic effects of the TKOWF an assumption about

component costs will need to be adopted to enable analysis by type of services and works

and therefore the spread of jobs locally, regionally, and nationally (including the share of jobs

that will still be created in the continental Europe). This report is the most detailed,

comprehensive, and up-to-date source of information on costs by wind turbine components,

services and works. Its focus on 5MW turbines is particularly useful as this size of turbine will

be used increasingly in future offshore wind projects. It is the size currently assumed for the

Marine Energy Park at Killingholme5, which will provide manufacturing facilities for offshore

wind in the UK.

5 ERM, 2011. Able Marine Energy Park. Preliminary Environmental Information Report.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 21

4.3 Towards Round 3: Building the Offshore Wind Supply Chain

4.3.1 This report by BVG Associates for the Crown Estate was published in 2010 and provides an

analysis of the future of the offshore wind industry in the UK and the current capacity of the

UK supply chain. The report is aimed at identifying gaps in the supply chain to enable policy

makers to improve support to the offshore wind industry in the UK and increase economic

benefits from the forthcoming large scale offshore wind projects.

4.3.2 Figure 4 taken from the report (below) illustrates that the projected installed capacity in

Europe is largely going to be delivered in the UK until 2020, an opportunity it will be important

to capitalise on. The report suggests that:

“An approach that targets 30+ GW of installation by 2020 but that shows agnosticism about

manufacturing location risks missing a supply opportunity not seen since North Sea oil and

gas.”

4.3.3 The report identifies a number of constraints in the UK supply chain for offshore turbines, sub-

sea cables, and installation vessels until 2012 in particular, when more projects will start

construction. Provided conditions are favourable and the industry responds with investment in

these areas it is anticipated that the UK supply chain will be developed by 2017-2020.

Figure 4.1: Projected annual and cumulative offshore installation to 2020 in MW in UK

and rest of Europe

Source: BVG Associates 2010

4.3.4 This report, together with the UK Offshore Wind Report and the World Offshore Wind Market

report, provides an overview of the current supply chain gaps and offshore wind installation


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 22

projections that inform how, potentially, the existing supply chain gaps will be resolved by

2017/2018, when construction is due to commence on the TKOWF project. By 2017/2018 the

annual installed capacity in the UK will have reached almost 6GW, which is dependent upon

supply chain issues having been resolved and a certain nucleus of offshore wind

manufacturing capacity having been established in the UK. This can therefore serve as an

assumption in the assessment of the potential socio-economic effects of the TKOWF project.

4.4 Costs of offshore wind generation

4.4.1 It has been widely reported that the offshore wind industry expects capital costs for wind farm

projects to decrease as further innovation brings forward cheaper materials for turbines and

as learning helps to reduce costs of development and installation and the risks associated

with the new sector. Some of the cost reduction estimates show that there may be up to a 20

percent decrease in costs by 2020. For example, the Study of the Costs of Offshore Wind

Generation (DTI, 2007) predicted 20 percent reduction in costs for Round 2 projects. A more

recent Ernst and Young study for DECC in 2009, ‘Cost of and Financial Support for Offshore

Wind’ provided an analysis of the scale of reductions in standardised costs6 of offshore wind

energy that can be expected by 2015. The reductions were mostly related to the capital cost

element of standardised costs, and range between 9.7 percent - accounting for the learning

benefits, to 19.4 percent - accounting for learning and reduction in risk as perceived by

financial market, to 41 percent - accounting for the aforementioned two factors and

efficiencies achieved in the supply chain.

4.5 Learning Curves and Changing Product Attributes: the Case of Wind Turbines

4.5.1 In undertaking the socio-economic impact assessment of the Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm

it is important to consider how offshore wind costs are likely to change in the future. In their

research Coulomb and Neuhoff (2006) discuss changes in the wind turbine industry

concerning the gradual increase in turbine sizes and the anticipation that this would lead to

economies of scale and a considerable reduction in the cost per 1MW of electricity generated.

However, they note that the opposite has happened and their analysis suggests dis-

economies of scale for wind turbines:

“Part of the cost reductions from learning-by-doing did not reduce the turbine price but simply

allowed for the bigger turbine sizes”.

4.5.2 The results of the modelling of wind turbine costs as a function of turbine size show that with

every doubling of global installed capacity, costs of wind turbines per installed capacity have

fallen by 10.9% between 1991 and 2003. Allowing the model to correct for the fact that bigger

6 Standardised costs of electricity production include capital costs, fuel costs, and operation and maintenance (O&M)

costs. The analysis in the DECC report broke down standardised costs into capital expenditure, O&M expenditure, and cost of capital to show how financing costs contribute to the economics of offshore wind electricity generation.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 23

turbines are exposed to higher wind speeds at higher tower heights, the study estimated that

costs for wind turbines have fallen by 12.7% with every doubling of installed capacity.

4.5.3 The report further states that, at some point, the wind turbine industry should reach the

maximum turbine size, at which time it will then be able to focus on cost reduction. The study

therefore suggests that wind turbine costs are dependent on learning but the learning has to

be ‘re-started’ each time a new turbine size is introduced and hence the costs per 1MW will

grow until the optimal turbine size is reached. The learning process from then on would allow

achieving economies of scale and cost reductions.

4.5.4 Whilst the costs of offshore wind turbines have been increasing in recent years, based on the

above review it is fair to assume that there will be a turning point when the current trend will

reverse and the benefits arising from economies of scale will be felt. The socio-economic

assessment will need to take into account the possibility of such reversal in the cost trend and

test the impact results for sensitivity to changes in development costs.

4.6 Analysis of the Employment Effects of the Operation and Maintenance of

Offshore Wind Parks in the UK

4.6.1 This study was undertaken by Oxford Economics on behalf of Vestas Offshore with the

purpose of “providing a robust assessment of the employment impact of the operation and

maintenance of offshore wind farms, of both those operated by Vestas and in the UK as a

whole in 2010, and in 2020 based on projections for capacity development in the UK”. The

study used financial data provided by Vestas to produce an accurate analysis of permanent

operational and maintenance job creation over the life span of offshore turbines (20+ years),

together with the financial benefits to the UK-based supply chain. No estimate is provided in

relation to job creation effects of capital purchases related to offshore operations and

maintenance e.g. boats and port facilities, nor the direct and indirect employment effects

during the manufacturing, construction and installation stages of offshore wind farms.

Nevertheless it provides useful background information setting out, in broad terms, the

beneficial operational and maintenance effects of developing increased offshore wind

capacity.

4.6.2 The following job creation figures are reported in relation to operational and maintenance

activities:

• The operation and maintenance activities of the UK’s current 1GW capacity of

offshore wind farms is estimated to directly support 290 highly skilled jobs in the UK,

with employment taxes raising £5 million for the UK Exchequer.

• Offshore wind operations and maintenance activity purchases £13 million worth of

goods and services from the UK-based supply chain and when combined with the


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 24

purchases made by those employed directly and in the supply chain spending their

wages is estimated to sustain an additional 160 jobs.

• In total the UK’s offshore wind farms support 450 UK jobs (excluding the job creation

effects of capital purchases related to offshore operations and maintenance).

4.6.3 The study states that these jobs, which are directly supported by offshore operation and

maintenance activities, are “often highly skilled and located away from urban centres in areas

where job creation is generally weaker and deprivation higher”. In addition, the average

income from these jobs is “often significantly higher than the average earnings in the areas

where the jobs are located” and that consequently, “further creation of operations and

maintenance jobs will raise average earnings in these areas”.

4.6.4 It is reported that for the UK to fulfil its renewable energy obligations, its offshore wind

capacity must reach, as a minimum, 14GW by 2020. If this target is achieved it is estimated

that offshore operation and maintenance activities would directly support over 2,500 jobs, with

a total employment effects of around 4,600 jobs taking into account around 1,100 jobs

indirectly supported in the supply chain and a further 1000 jobs supported in the rest of the

economy.

4.6.5 The study also reports on the employment effects arising from the additional capacity of

offshore wind farms currently under construction or proposed under the Rounds 2 and 3, and

other development phases would give the UK an offshore capacity of 47.5GW. In terms of job

creation relating to operational maintenance activities, it is estimated that 47.5GW would

support 11,700 full time jobs, with a further 3,900 in the supply chain and 4,500 in the wider

the economy, making a total of more than 20,000.

4.6.6 However, it is considered that “The consensus within the UK wind energy industry is that

offshore capacity is likely to reach 20.5GW by 2020”, in which case a potential “7,500 highly

skilled ‘green’ jobs would be ‘lost’, compared to the 47.5GW scenario”, and a “further 5,000

potential jobs would not be realised in the rest of the economy, including supply chains”.

4.6.7 The estimated UK offshore operational and maintenance direct, indirect and induced

employment effects in 2020 for these different generating capacities provided by the Oxford

Economics study are summarised below.

Table4.2 Estimated UK offshore employment effects in 2020

Scenario in 2020 Maximum Likely Minimum

MW Capacity 47,500 20,500

14,100

Direct employment 11,720 4,000

2,500


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 25

Indirect employment 3,910 1,660

1,130

Induced employment 4,490 1,570

980

Total Employment 20,120 7,230

4,610

Source: Analysis of the Employment Effects of the Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Parks in the UK

(Oxford Econometrics, 2010)

4.6.8 The study acknowledges that the overall effect on employment arising from an increase in the

UK’s offshore wind generating capacity must also include the construction and installation

stages of development which will support a significant number of jobs, both directly in

construction and manufacturing and as a result of indirect effects in supply chains and

induced effects in the rest of the economy. It concludes that “any shortfall in the level of

capacity installation will [therefore] result in employment effects beyond those documented in

this report.”

4.6.9 This study provides a useful benchmark for estimating the number of operational and

maintenance jobs for offshore wind farms as it can be assumed that each 1MW of installed

capacity requires 0.29 direct and 0.16 indirect FTE jobs. Further estimates for different

scenarios of installed capacity provide varying multipliers for indirect and induced impacts. It

is assumed that this results from variations in development of UK supply chains depending on

the demand from offshore wind O&M. The indirect multiplier in this report is higher for lower

impact scenarios. The report also provides information on breakdown of supply purchases by

offshore wind O&M and an indication of how much is spent in the UK based on the data

supplied by Vestas.

4.7 South West Offshore Renewables Port Infrastructure

4.7.1 The study researched the suitability of existing port infrastructure in North Devon, South West

of England, for future offshore wind projects. A number of ports were considered and potential

impacts of the construction of the Atlantic Array offshore wind farm (1.5GW) were estimated.

4.7.2 Economic impact scenarios, which assumed low, medium, or high local content in the Atlantic

Array construction and O&M supply chain, indicate that the potential regional content varies

between £208.5m and £1.066bn, or from 4% to 22% of the total value of the Atlantic Array

capital and O&M costs. The ‘Low’ scenario assumes 18% of total construction and O&M

expenditure being spent in the UK, 4% in the South West region, and 1% locally. The

‘Medium’ scenario assumes that 33% will be spent in the UK, 11% in the region, and 6%

locally. The ‘High’ scenario is the most optimistic assuming 55% will be spent in the UK, 22%

in South West, and 12% in the local area.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 26

4.7.3 The report also discusses the turnover per employee in offshore wind and renewable energy

sectors, which is useful for the Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm impact assessment: ‘Recent

Douglas Westwood study for BERR indicated that a turnover of £75,000 per employee is

found in the leading renewables companies. The DTZ Pieda study for Regen SW showed an

average turnover/employee of £91,000 within the SW renewables sector; but also noted that

GVA within the wind energy sub-sector approximately 60% of the average renewables sector

figure. This suggests that in the South West, and with an emphasis on wind energy, a

turnover of £53,500/employee/year may be a reasonable assumption.’

4.7.4 The number of jobs estimated for different supply chain capacity scenarios in this study is

presented below:

Table 4.3 Estimated regional and local jobs created

Annual Jobs – Development & Construction

Annual Jobs – Operation &Maintenance

South West Local South West Local

Low 387 158 98 20

Medium 1040 259 245 196

High 1630 812 589 324

Source: South West Offshore Renewables Port Infrastructure (Douglas Westwood, 2010)

4.7.5 The assumptions adopted in this study are relevant for the state of the renewable energy

sector in the South West region in 2008. Whilst it will be useful to take this research into

account, the North East of England has much stronger already established capacity for

offshore wind and this will only be growing, especially if offshore wind manufacturing facilities

were to be established in the Humber.

4.8 Scottish Offshore Wind: Creating an Industry (August 2010)

4.8.1 This study was undertaken on behalf of Scottish Renewables and provides an insight into the

development of supply chains depending on the target installation capacity to be achieved.

The goal of the study was “to understand the potential scale of the offshore wind sector and

the economic effects related to offshore wind capacity and industry development in Scotland.”

This comprised the modelling of the following four alternative scenarios for the future of the

Scottish offshore wind industry out to 2020:

• Scenario A gives a vision of the benefits that Scotland can achieve if it takes decisive

steps now.

• Scenario B demonstrates the effects of more moderate offshore wind development.

• Scenario C considers the effects should Scotland fail to capture the economic benefits of

offshore wind development.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 27

• Scenario D shows the consequences if Scotland does not act on the opportunities

presented by offshore wind and has few successful projects developed and limited supply

chain.

Scenario A

4.8.2 Under this scenario where developers are encouraged to complete the full 10.6GW of

offshore wind sites currently available for commissioning by 2020, significant grid

reinforcement is undertaken and a full supply chain for all phases of the project lifecycle

developed, it was calculated that significant value would be added to the Scottish economy,

including:

• A value retained in Scotland directly from the offshore wind industry of £1.3bn in the

year 2020 and £7.1bn over the decade.

• An additional £6bn of added value generated through indirect and induced effects.

• More than 28,000 full-time equivalent jobs directly in the offshore wind sector in 2020.

• Another 20,000 jobs through indirect and induced effects in 2020.

Scenario B

4.8.3 Under this scenario it is assumed that the supply chain still develops but that offshore wind

projects are developed over a longer period than Scenario A. It was calculated that despite

the slower delivery of offshore projects significant benefits would accrue to the Scottish

economy, including:

• An industry worth a cumulative value of £4.5bn over the coming decade.

• An additional £3.8bn through indirect and induced effects.

• More than 19,000 full-time equivalent jobs directly in the offshore wind sector in 2020.

• Another 13,000 jobs through indirect and induced effects.

Scenario C

4.8.4 This scenario assesses the consequences of lack of investment in the Scottish supply chain

in which offshore wind projects come online at the same rate as Scenario A but without the

development of the wider industrial base. It was calculated that around 6,000 full-time

equivalent jobs would be generated in 2020, with indirect and induced employment

generating an additional 5,000 jobs. This would result in a total cumulative value added of

£1.6bn between 2011 and 2020, with a further £1.4bn of indirect and induced benefits.

Scenario D

4.8.5 This scenario assesses the consequences of Scotland failing to capitalise on its vast offshore

wind resource, which was calculated to result in limited benefits with the offshore wind

industry generating a cumulative value of £224m over the decade, with indirect and induced

effects worth around £200m. This would result in the creation of around 900 full-time


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 28

equivalent jobs directly in the industry in 2020 with indirect and induced effects accounting for

around 730 jobs.

4.9 Working for a Green Britain: Employment and Skills in the UK Wind and Marine

Industries, RenewableUK (2011)

4.9.1 This report presents the findings of the first phase of a study of current and future employment

and skills associated with the development of the UK wind and marine energy industries,

undertaken by Cambridge Econometrics (CE), the University of Warwick Institute of

Employment Research (IER) and IFF Research, on behalf of Renewable UK and Energy and

Utility Skills. The report focuses on current employment levels and skills in 2010, and how the

industry has developed to date.

4.9.2 Based on analysis of current data sources, it is estimated that around 10,800 full-time-

equivalent employees (FTEs) were working in the wind and marine energy industry in 2010,

with 29% associated with the offshore wind industry. The report compares these figures with

those reported separately in 2007, and estimates that employment in offshore wind energy

has more than quadrupled between 2007 and 2010 to 3150 FTEs.

4.10 UK Offshore Wind: Building an Industry. Analysis and Scenarios for Industrial

Development, RenewableUK (2010)

4.10.1 This report looks at different scenarios of UK offshore wind installation, in terms of different

approaches in the speed and scale of industry growth, during the period 2015-2030. The

‘Aggregated Developer Appetite’ scenario predicts a rapid deployment of offshore wind

capacity and necessitates very high investment in the supply chain. The ‘Healthy Industry’

scenario shows a long-term sustainable demand in the market, with sufficient space for

multiple competing companies. The ‘Low Added Value’ scenario shows the effects of an

average two year delay to many projects together with a scaling back in project size, limiting

the extent to which the UK supply chain can develop.

4.10.2 As part of the analysis, the report considers the hardware and factory requirements to install

the predicted 10,000 turbines and foundations required between 2015 and 2030. Over

12,000km of array cabling is needed and export cable lengths greater than 8500km. The UK’s

forecast growth will require the equivalent of 22 factories for the turbines, foundations and

cables.

4.11 Other Offshore Wind Farms


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 29

4.11.1 A number of offshore wind farm projects are under construction, consented or in the planning

process off the eastern coast of England, proximate to the TKOWF site. These include:

• Lincs (270MW) 8km off Skegness.

• Sheringham Shoal (316.8MW) in the Greater Wash.

• Humber Gateway (300MW) off Withernsea.

• Westernmost Rough (240MW) in the Greater Wash.

• Race Bank (620MW) 27km off the North Norfolk coast.

• Docking Shoal (540MW) 14km off the North Norfolk coast.

• Dudgeon (560MW) 32km north of Norfolk.

4.11.2 The socio-economic assessments included in the Environmental Statements for these

projects highlight the economic benefits likely to accrue from their development taking

account of the capital investment and ongoing operation and maintenance over 25+ years.

These include:

• The provision of direct full time jobs during construction, operation and maintenance

and decommissioning.

• Opportunities arising for local companies during the construction phase and the

ongoing maintenance.

• Benefits to the supply chain in relation to the purchase of materials, equipment and

services during the construction phase.

• Increased local income associated with contractors and project employees living and

working in the area during construction.

• The use of regional ports as the operational and maintenance base.

4.11.3 Socio-economic data on other wind farms currently under construction or planned has been

collated and reviewed as part of this baseline technical review. These are as follows:-

• Ormonde (150MW) off the North West coast, near Barrow-in-Furness

• Walney Phase 1 (184MW) off the North West coast, near Barrow-in-Furness

• Greater Gabbard (504MW) off the Suffolk coast

• Gwynt y Môr (576MW) off the North Wales coast

• Thanet (300MW) off the Kent coast

• London Array Phase 1 (380MW) off the Kent coast

4.11.4 Table 4.4 below presents relevant socio-economic data, where available, for the offshore

windfarms listed in 4.11.1 and 4.11.3.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 30

Offshore

Windfarm

Windfarm

Capacity

(MW)

Capital

Expenditure

Per MW

Approx

share of

expenditure

spent in the

UK

Decommissioning

Costs (Costs per

MW)

Predicted

level of

employment

during

construction

Predicted

level of

employment

during

operation

Lincs 270 n/a n/a £101,193 n/a n/a

Sheringham

Shoal

317 3.3 20.9% n/a n/a n/a

Humber

Gateway

300 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Westernmost

Rough


Race Bank 620 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Docking

Shoal


Dudgeon 560 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Ormonde 150 1.9 37.9% n/a n/a n/a

Walney

Phase 1

184 3.0 19.1% n/a n/a n/a

Greater

Gabbard

504 3.0 18.0% n/a n/a n/a

Gwynt y Mor 576 2.9 12.9% n/a 1,180 126

Thanet 300 n/a 19.8% n/a n/a n/a

London

Array Phase

1

630 n/a 12.9% n/a n/a n/a

Average - 3.3 20.1% - - -

4.12 Effects of overhead lines


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 31

4.12.1 The following studies have been undertaken and environmental statement (ES) chapters

prepared which consider the effects on tourism from overhead lines in the UK:

• The Scope for Undergrounding Overhead Electricity Lines’ (2002).

• Scotland – Northern Ireland Interconnector: Ex post Tourism Impact Assessment

(2006).

• Proposed 132kV Overhead Line Between Legacy and Oswestry ES (2009).

• Beauly Denny ES (2004).

The Scope for Undergrounding Overhead Electricity Lines (2002)

4.12.2 The UK Centre for Economic and Environmental Development prepared a report entitled ‘The

Scope for Undergrounding Overhead Electricity Lines’ for the Friends of the Lake District in

2002.

4.12.3 The main aim of the study was “to inform Friends of the Lake District (FLD) in their

campaigning for more undergrounding in Cumbria and to assist them and other organisations

in influencing key policy-makers in the public and private sectors” particularly in relation to

lower voltage lines operated by the electricity distribution companies. The study brief was to

provide up-to-date information on the following and formulate effective strategies to

encourage greater levels of undergrounding.

• The cost and technical implications of undergrounding overhead electricity

distribution lines.

• The planning, environmental and regulatory policy context for undergrounding.

• The availability of third party contributions to undergrounding projects, whether in

terms of financial provision or works 'in kind'.

4.12.4 The research included analysis of key documents produced by the electricity distribution

companies; analysis of the planning policies for electricity lines; communication with relevant

bodies and a background literature review.

4.12.5 The following key findings were reported:

• Landscape Impacts of Overhead Lines: There is extensive case-specific evidence

that members of the public find the landscape impacts of overhead lines

unacceptable. Moreover, these concerns are widely acknowledged by the electricity

industry. One can also find assertions that removing overhead lines from a given

setting enhances the potential for tourism. What remains virtually absent is any

assessment of the ‘level’ of visual dis-amenity; for example, by establishing the

monetary value of this impact.

• Studies conducted in the 1970s and mid-1990s found positive public support for

undergrounding high voltage transmission lines, and some positive willingness to


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 32

pay for the additional costs, although not at a level sufficient to cover the costs of

undergrounding all the overhead lines that people encountered.

• System development: One of the most important opportunities for managing the

impacts of electricity infrastructure on valued landscapes lies in influencing the way

in which the distribution system develops.

• Asset management: Many of the most important decisions affecting the development

of electricity infrastructure are taken as part of the asset management processes with

environmental factors only entering the equation when circuit-specific solutions are

being developed. Whilst more money could be spent on undergrounding if OFGEM

allowed electricity companies more capital spending, OFGEM argues that it cannot

make environmental policy, and in agreeing to its spending reviews, electricity

distribution companies are also agreeing that they can meet any environmental

requirements. The research identified little evidence that pressures to underground a

higher proportion of the network to meet environmental policy objectives have been

the subject of much dispute between OFGEM and the electricity companies,

although it must be noted that the research is nearly 10 years old. However, the

availability of funding is a vital factor in lubricating (or frustrating) these strategic

discussions.

• Relative Costs: The research encountered difficulties in obtaining detailed data on

the real costs of overhead and underground circuits and the cost data (1999-2001)

for 132kV provided in the table below shows significant variations between sources.

Notwithstanding this caveat the main features of the costs of undergrounding are

reported as follows:

� The direct costs of underground supplies of electricity are generally greater

than those of overhead supply. However, the ratios are much more

favourable for the very lowest voltage lines in the most ideal circumstances

(usually soft roadside verges, unimpeded by other services) and may

approach parity.

� Electricity companies argue that there are reliability issues involved in using

underground cables: failures tend to be fewer in number but take longer to

locate and repair than faults on the overhead system.

Voltage Cost per kilometre (£000s) Ratio

132kV PB Power 2000

(PBP)

Regional Electricity

Company 3 (REC3)

o/h : u/g

single o/h 70.2

double o/h 146.3 300-400

single u/g 769.5

double u/g 1,500

PBP 1: 11

(single)

REC3 1: 4-5

(double)


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 33

4.12.6 The research also discussed the consenting process for new overhead electricity lines, EIA,

planning and environmental policy current at the time of the research, wayleaves and land

ownership issues, utility cooperation, and third party funding for undergrounding (largely via

governmental and non-governmental organisations).

Scotland – Northern Ireland Interconnector: Ex Post Tourism Impact Assessment (2006)

4.12.7 This ex-post assessment of the impact of the Scotland-Northern Ireland Electricity

Interconnector overhead transmission-line and associated works in South Ayrshire on the

Ayrshire and Arran tourism industry over the period 1993-2006 was undertaken by Roger

Tym and Partners on behalf Scottish and Southern Energy plc.

4.12.8 The aim of the report was “to assess whether or not any impacts or effects were experienced

by the Ayrshire tourism industry / market during the period over which the Interconnector was

considered by the planning process in the early – mid 1990s, through to its period of

construction and operation in the early part of the current decade; and whether any clear

causal relationship or correlation can be established between the Interconnector’s presence

and operation, and any impacts on tourism”.

4.12.9 The study assessed the overall impact the overhead transmission line had on tourism related

businesses in Ayrshire and Arran as reported by business survey respondents. In the

concluding chapter it states:

“In the most recent period the overriding majority (97%) of respondents reported that their

business or tourist attraction had not been negatively impacted by the overhead transmission

line (Table 7.1). As the time periods became more distant an increasing proportion of

respondents were either not operating at this time or didn’t know if there had been any

negative impact.

The hotel and B&B sectors were the only sectors that indicated that the overhead

transmission line had any type of impact on their business. Two hotel respondents stated that

the overhead transmission line had a negative impact (one minor negative impact and one

medium negative impact) while one B&B operator reported a positive impact due to increased

business from construction workers who were building the Interconnector”.

4.12.10 In conclusion, the report states that the findings were inconclusive “as to the likely reasons for

fluctuations in tourism volume and value, but years where a notable event related to the

planning, construction, or operation of the overhead transmission line corresponded with a

local downturn in tourism volume and value (particularly against the overall Scottish trend)

have been identified above…..[although] There did not appear to be any such causal

relationship identifiable with overseas tourism”.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 34

4.12.11 However, it went on to say that “in reassessing these possible causal factors through the

Business Survey, this established that the overhead transmission line has exerted only a

marginal negative impact on local tourism related businesses, with only 2% of respondents

reporting a minor or medium negative impact respectively in each of the three time periods

(Table 7.1), which appears to confirm that the possible effects from the line during 1994,

1997, and 1999, are more likely as a result of other contributory factors, and by observation,

largely the weather”.

4.12.12 The key conclusion from the assessment was therefore that “the overhead transmission line

interconnector has had an inconsequential impact on the tourism industry in Ayrshire and

Arran”.

Proposed 132kV Overhead Line between Legacy and Oswestry (2009)

4.12.13 The ES included a chapter on the effects on recreation and tourism, which focussed on the

potential effects on people’s enjoyment of countryside, together with direct physical effects

such as the diversion or re-routeing of footpaths, restrictions on leisure activities, disruption to

tourist routes and effects on the setting of tourist destinations, particularly where attention is

focussed on the landscape (e.g. National Trust sites, historic parks and gardens).

4.12.14 The conclusion of the assessment was that “The main effect of the proposed overhead line on

recreation and tourism occurs where the line crosses recreational routes but, in general,

these effects are considered minor and not significant. This is due partly to the scale of the

proposed line and partly to the ability of the landscape to assimilate the structures and

prevent extensive views. Careful routeing to avoid specific recreation and tourist facilities has

prevented direct effects upon the majority of identified resources”.

4.12.15 No assessment of economic effects on local tourism was included.

Beauly Denny Environmental Statement - Chapter 27, Tourism and Recreation (2004)

4.12.16 An assessment was undertaken of the potential tourism and recreation effects arising from

the development of the proposed 400kV overhead transmission line, the dismantling of the

existing 132kV overhead transmission line, works associated with six substations, formation

of access tracks and other ancillary works. The key objectives were:

• To determine the nature of the tourism and visitor resources, and the associated

tourism issues, taking account of the regional, Scottish, and wider context.

• To identify the principal tourism and recreation effects (both positive and negative)

that may result from the proposed project and assess the significance of these effects.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 35

• To recommend measures for preventing, reducing and offsetting any identified

significant adverse effects, and / or enhancing any beneficial effects, including

dismantling existing lines where possible.

• To identify any residual adverse effects.

4.12.17 Relevant receptors were identified by web based, desk based and visual walk over survey

and a business survey was conducted, comprising consultation with local tourism and

recreation businesses along with businesses who arrange recreational activities within the

area.

4.12.18 The potential effects on tourism were assessed using the following sources of information:

• Other comparative research on tourist and visitor views on the impact and effects of

overhead transmission lines.

• Analysis of the business survey carried out across the survey area.

• Commentary on likely scale of visitors and recreational users of the facilities and/or

routes.

4.12.19 Overall the findings of the business survey were positive with 54% stating that the line would

have no significant or negative effect upon their business. However 40% of accommodation

businesses and 44% in activity centres, fishing and estates stated that the line may have a

negative effect upon their business.

4.12.20 In terms of the scale of impact, it is reported that “only in a very limited number of locations

and areas can it be considered that there would potentially be a moderate or major effect as a

result of the proposed project. In addition, comparative research evidence elsewhere

demonstrates that, in general, the negative effect of such a development is unlikely to exceed

10-15% of business turnover and that following completion of the works, together with

marketing and promotion of the business, trade once again returns to close to the norm.

Given that the variation in business is of a scale within that of annual ‘swings’ in tourism

numbers of visitors, trips, bednights, and expenditure, it can be concluded that other than in a

handful of instances particular to a given business, the overall effect is likely to be minor”.

4.12.21 Thus the conclusions from experience elsewhere in the UK of before and after research into

the impacts and effects of the construction and operation of upgraded overhead transmission

lines has shown that these have had no significant adverse effect upon the surrounding

tourism and recreation based economy through which they were routed, nor on non-tourism

related activity.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 36

5. Socio-Economic Baseline

5.1 Policy background

5.1.1 This report does not include a full review of relevant planning policy but provides a review of

planning policy and other material considerations relevant to the socio-economic topic.

National Policy

National Policy Statement for Energy

5.1.2 The Revised Draft Overarching National Policy Statement for Energy (EN-1) was produced

for consultation by DECC in 2010. This sets out the national policy for energy infrastructure,

and sets out relevant policies which the Infrastructure Planning Commission (IPC) will be

taking into consideration when making decisions on applications for energy developments.

5.1.3 In defining the requirement for an Environmental Statement, for projects subject to the

European Environmental Impact Assessment Directive, the revised draft NPS EN-1 states

that, “while not required by the EIA Directive, the IPC will find it helpful if the applicant also

sets out information on the likely significant social and economic effects of the development,

and shows how any likely significant negative effects would be avoided or mitigated.” The

NPS also defines what impacts may need to be considered. This includes the creation of jobs

and training opportunities, the provision of additional local services and improvements to local

infrastructure, effects on tourism, and the impact of a changing influx of workers during the

different construction, operation and decommissioning phases of the energy infrastructure.

The NPS also recommends consideration of cumulative effects.

The Low Carbon Transition Plan, 2009

5.1.4 The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan7 followed the 2008 Climate Change Act which saw

Britain establish legally binding ‘carbon budgets’ aimed at reducing UK emissions through

“investment in energy efficiency and clean energy technologies such as renewables, nuclear

and carbon capture and storage”. The Act set a target of reducing UK greenhouse gas

emissions by at least 80 per cent by 2050.

5.1.5 The Low Carbon Transition Plan takes the Climate Change Act a step further by addressing

the following areas in terms of reducing carbon emissions: power sector, homes and

communities, workplaces and jobs and transport. Key steps of relevance highlighted in the

Plan are:

7 The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan: National Strategy for climate and Energy, National Government, (2009)


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 37

• Generating 40% of electricity from low carbon sources by 2020 (including producing

around 30% of electricity from renewables by 2020 by substantially increasing the

requirement for electricity suppliers to sell renewable electricity).

• Making homes greener by: funding for home energy efficiency measures, introducing the

use of Smart Meters in all homes by 2020, introducing clean energy cash-back schemes,

supporting the most vulnerable in society to make their homes greener.

• Helping make the UK a centre of green industry by supporting the development and use

of clean technologies, including investment in offshore wind and marine energy.

• Transforming transport: for example, by cutting average carbon dioxide emissions from

new cars across the EU by 40% on 2007 levels, supporting a demonstration project for

new electric cars, and sourcing 10% of UK transport energy from sustainable renewable

sources by 2020.

5.1.6 The agenda for the next forty years is therefore to completely transform the way we live and

undertake business by changing the nature of energy consumption.

The UK Renewable Energy Strategy 2009

5.1.7 This strategy sets out the government’s plans for increasing the use of renewable electricity,

heat and transport. The ambitious target scenario outlines the following:

� More than 30% of electricity to be generated from renewables, including wind (on and

offshore), biomass, hydro, wave and tidal power, an increase of about 5.5%.

� 12% of heat generated from a range of renewable sources including biomass, biogas,

solar and heat pump sources in homes, businesses and communities.

� 10% of transport energy to be generated from renewables, up from the current level of

2.6% of road transport consumption, through support for electric vehicles and possible

further electrification of the rail network.

The UK Low Carbon Industrial Strategy

5.1.8 The Low Carbon Industrial Strategy published by the Department of Business, Innovation and

Skills and the Department of Energy and Climate Change acknowledges that economic

activity in Britain will need to significantly reduce its carbon impact. This extends not only to

energy being produced from low carbon sources, but to its consumption that should be

reduced. This includes the manufacture of goods using low carbon materials, the use of

vehicles that utilize low carbon fuels, the reduction in our consumption of food and water and

a complete change in the way we deal with waste.

5.1.9 The Strategy admits that the costs of this transition will be substantial; however the benefits of

reducing our environmental impact and slowing down climate change will outweigh the costs.

The results will change the industrial landscape, supply chains and the way people live and

work.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 38

Regional and Local Policy

5.1.10 The East Midlands Regional Plan (2009) and the Yorkshire and Humber Plan (Regional

Spatial Strategy (RSS) to 2026) were revoked with immediate effect along with all other RSSs

following a statement laid in Parliament on 6 July 2010 by the Local Government Secretary.

However, the Government has since reinstated all RSSs following the judgement of the

Honourable Mr. Justice Sales in the case of Cala Homes (South) Ltd vs. the Secretary of

State for Communities and Local Government and Winchester City Council 8 in which the

decision to revoke the RSSs was found to be unlawful.

5.1.11 Following that judgement all RSS's have been reinstated, until such a time that the

Government formally revokes them. The Government has now introduced the Localism Bill

into Parliament which amongst other things makes provision (in Part 5) for the abolition of

regional strategies. However, until the relevant provisions are enacted and are brought into

effect the policies and objectives of the RSS's remain a material consideration.

East Midlands Regional Plan, March 2009

5.1.12 The Lincolnshire coast falls within the Eastern Sub-Area within the East Midlands region

comprising Lincolnshire and Rutland, a mainly rural area which includes some “remote and

significantly deprived areas, particularly on the coast”9. Development in the Eastern Sub-

Area is set out in Policy 4, which states, inter alia, that development should “maintain and

enhance the roles of the defined main and Small Towns as locally significant service and

employment centres………[and] consolidate and diversify the holiday industry at existing

coastal settlements, particularly Skegness and Mablethorpe”.

5.1.13 Other relevant policies within the RSS include:

• Policy 5: Strategy for Lincolnshire Coastal Districts – which will consider, inter alia,

regeneration needs, including social and economic factors.

• Policy 24: Regional Priorities for Rural Diversification – which states that local

development documents should consider ‘economically lagging’ rural areas including

the district of East Lindsey.

• Policy 42: Regional Priorities for Tourism states that “Local Authorities, emda, Sub-

Regional Strategic Partnerships and other relevant public bodies should seek to

identify areas of potential for tourism growth which maximise economic benefit whilst

minimising adverse impact on the environment and local amenity”.

8 See [2010] EWHC 2866 (Admin) online at http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Admin/2010/2866.html

9 East Midlands Regional Plan, March 2009 (page 9)


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 39

5.1.14 In relation to regional priorities for low carbon energy generation in the Eastern Sub-area the

plan states at para 3.3.89 that “Any infrastructure required to develop offshore [wind]

developments will also need to be accommodated within the Eastern Sub-area”.

Yorkshire and Humber Plan

5.1.15 The Yorkshire and Humber Plan sets out the regional spatial strategy for the region to 2026,

one of the key spatial priorities for which is to “Optimise the opportunities provided by the

Humber Ports as an international trade gateway for the Region and the Country”.

5.1.16 The Humber Estuary sub area includes the Unitary Authorities of North Lincolnshire, North

East Lincolnshire and the whole area of Kingston-upon-Hull City Council. Policy HEI (Humber

Estuary Sub Area Policy) states, inter alia, that plans, strategies, major investment decisions

and programmes for the sub area will, where relevant, seek to:

• Diversify and develop the sub area’s economy, making the most of the multimodal

transport links, ports, cities and town centres and existing and potential workforce.

• Foster value-added port related activities and maximise opportunities around the ports

and close to the Estuary’s deep water channel.

• Encourage growing and diversifying the local economies of the sub area’s three main

urban areas – particularly to develop a stronger service sector.

• Enhance the tourism offer and attraction of Cleethorpes.

• Safeguard the Port Logistics / Humber Bank Site.

• Develop the sub area’s renewable energy generation potential, whilst safeguarding

character and amenity from the excessive cumulative impacts of large numbers of wind

turbines and associated development.

• Support the delivery of the Humber Ports City Region Development Programme.

5.1.17 In addition to the retained RSSs, the development plans for the study area include the

relevant saved policies within the following local plans:

• North Lincolnshire Local Plan (adopted May 2003) - relevant policies include:

- Policies IN 4, IN4A, IN5 and IN7 regarding estuary and port related

development that will be permitted on the southern bank of the Humber

including at South Killingholme and East Halton.

- Policy R1 (Protection of Playing Fields), R5 (Recreational Paths Network),

R6 (Water Based Leisure) and R13 (Tourism).

• North East Lincolnshire Local Plan (adopted November 2003) - relevant policies

include:

- Policy GEN1 (Development Areas), GEN2 (Development in the Open

Countryside).


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 40

- Policy E1 (Industrial Land), E2 (Estuary Related Land), E3 (Operational Port

Area).

- Policy LTC2 (Loss of Amenity Open Space).

- Policy NH8 (Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty).

• East Lindsey Local Plan (Alteration 1999) - relevant policies include:

- Policy A4 (Protection of General Amenities).

- Policy C11 (Lincolnshire Wolds Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty and

Areas of Great Landscape Value, Policy C14 & C15 (Coastal Conservation

Areas).

- Policy T1 (Tourism Strategy).

- Policy REC3 (Loss of Main Sport and Formal Recreation Facilities), Policy

REC4 (Local and Informal Recreation).

- Policy CF2 (Loss of Key Community and Social Facilities).

5.1.18 The Local Development Frameworks (LDF) for these districts are in preparation, together with

the Development Plan Documents. As the documents progress through examination towards

adoption it is understood progressively more weight can be attached to them in the decision-

making process.

5.1.19 The Core Strategy submission draft for North Lincolnshire was published in May 2010 and the

examination in public concluded in January 2011. The Inspector’s Report has now been

received by the Council, which concluded that the Core Strategy DPD is sound. The next

stage is for the Council to adopt the DPD. The agreed spatial vision for the future

development of North Lincolnshire set out in the submission draft document states that “By

2026, North Lincolnshire will be the north of England’s Global Gateway. It will have a strong

economy, thriving towns and villages, a protected world class environment and will be a place

where people are proud to live”.

5.1.20 The proposed submission Core Strategy for North East Lincolnshire is currently being revised

for publication at a date yet to be announced. In the Core Strategy Revised Preferred Options

(November 2008) spatial visions for the district were set out including the Overall Spatial

Vision (Statement 2) for North East Lincolnshire to be nationally and internationally

recognised as a significant destination and global gateway to the Yorkshire and Humber

Region by 2026. By this date it is envisaged that Grimsby will have strengthened its role as

the sub-regional centre and that “Key regeneration and renaissance projects will have

arrested the loss of population to surrounding areas”.

5.1.21 Following consultation on the 2009 Draft Core Strategy for East Lindsey, the Strategy is being

redrafted for submission to the Secretary of State for formal examination. The vision for the


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 41

district as set out in the Draft Strategy states that by 2026 East Lindsey will be a district with,

inter alia, “A network of thriving, safer and healthy sustainable communities, where people

can enjoy a high quality of life and an increased sense of well-being and where new

development simultaneously addresses the needs of the economy, communities and the

environment……A regenerated and diversified economy that builds on, and extends, the

important agriculture and tourism base…”

5.2 Commercial Operators

5.2.1 The Greater Wash Strategic Area (GWSA) encompasses a number of commercial shipping

activities, including the transportation of cargo and passengers, dredging and offshore gas

platform support. Baseline information and effects on shipping and navigation are presented

in Chapter 10 of the ES Volume 2, and information on oil and gas and dredging activities are

presented in Chapter 12 of the ES Volume 2, Other Marine Uses. Effects on commercial

fisheries are presented in Chapter 8 of the ES Volume 2. The following sets out baseline

information on the ports used by the commercial operators which may experience socio-

economic effects during the lifetime of the project.

5.2.2 The characteristics of vessel traffic in and around the proposed TKOWF site are mainly

determined by the trades supported by surrounding ports, the seabed morphology in the

GWSA (characterised by channels between shoals marked in places by lighted buoys) and

the locations of nearby gas platforms. Data relating to the number, types and characteristics

of the vessels visiting ports in the GWSA has been determined during stakeholder

consultation as part of the EIA process.

5.2.3 The GWSA is bounded to the west by the major trading estuary of the River Humber,

containing numerous ports, docks and wharves and including the Humber ports of Hull,

Immingham, Grimsby, Goole and Killingholme. From Hull and Killingholme scheduled

passenger and freight ferries operate to mainland Europe.

5.2.4 The port partnership of Grimsby and Immingham is the busiest port in the UK in terms of

tonnage (with the average of 62 million tonnes per year between 2005 and 2009). Immingham

handles large tankers and bulk carriers, while Grimsby handles a range of forest products

from Scandinavia and the Baltic, bulk cargoes such as minerals and ores, and new cars on

dedicated Ro-Ro car carriers. Grimsby is also a leading fishing port. Many of the vessels

operating from the Humber are large ocean-going ships, some more than 200 metres in

length with drafts exceeding 10 metres.

5.2.5 The Humber ports are nationally important. Figure 5.1 below compares some of the largest

port groups in the UK. Together, the combined Humber ports have a throughput just slightly


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 42

lower than that of the Thames and Kent ports. The historic trend for Immingham and Grimsby

(including Killingholme) has been of aggressive growth compared to the Port of London, the

throughput of which is dominant in the Thames and Kent group of ports.

5.2.6 To the south-west of the GWSA are the Wash and the associated ports of Boston, King’s

Lynn, Wisbech and Sutton Bridge. They are of regional importance (Figure 5.1 below) with a

combined total throughput of around 3 million tonnes per year. The port traffic through the

Wash ports has been in decline since the 1980s. From Boston, container and bulk cargo

vessels of up to 120m in length operate to northern Europe. King’s Lynn handles mainly bulk

cargo vessels up to 140m in length, as well as vessels carrying timber and steel.

5.2.7 At Wisbech, which information indicates is currently experiencing a resurgence in shipping

activity, timber is imported from northern Europe. Also on the River Nene, the port of Sutton

Bridge has experienced growth in recent years and accommodates cargo vessels up to 120m

in length carrying mainly dry cargoes such as steel, timber and agricultural products.

Figure 5.1 Port traffic by port group, 1976 - 2009

Source: DfT. 2011. Maritime Statistics.

5.2.8 In terms of shipping routes, current information on shipping routes in the vicinity of the

proposed TKOWF development is based on a ten-day Automatic Identification System (AIS)


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 43

survey conducted by Anatec in June 2005. This survey was updated in 2009 by a 28 day

survey. AIS is a system for electronically exchanging ship data, allowing ship movements to

be tracked, and Anatec estimated that 95% of the ships in the area carried AIS at the time of

the survey. The data on vessel tracks was analysed to identify shipping lanes in which 90% of

the traffic using the lane was located so as to define the main shipping routes in the area. The

boundaries of the proposed Triton Knoll site were defined on the basis of the main routes

identified, with a due allowance for separation between the routes and the wind farm in

accordance with the Maritime and Coastguard Agency’s Wind farm Shipping Route Template.

The main shipping routes are presented in Chapter 10 of the ES Volume 2.

5.2.9 The main routes identified around the proposed Triton Knoll site are as follows:

• A route to the north of the site running broadly east to west, connecting the approaches to

the Humber with destinations in northern Europe.

• A route to the east of the site running broadly southeast to northwest through the Outer

Dowsing Channel between Outer Dowsing Shoal and Triton Knoll. This route connects

points to the northwest of the site (such as the Tees, Tyne and Forth ports and

transatlantic destinations via the north of Scotland) with northwest European mainland

ports, the Thames and global destinations via the Straits of Dover and the English

Channel.

• A number of merging and diverging routes to the south of the site running broadly southeast

to northwest, connecting the approaches to the Humber with northwest European mainland

ports, the Thames and global destinations via the Straits of Dover and the English Channel.

5.2.10 A traffic separation scheme in the approaches to the Humber co-ordinates the routeing of

vessels converging on the estuary into three sets of traffic lanes from the north-east, east and

south-east.

Future port and offshore development

Able Killingholme Marine Energy Park

5.2.11 The port of Killingholme currently handles Ro-Ro traffic and car imports from Europe and

Korea. Its owner, Able UK Ltd, hopes to transform a 2000-acre site into a facility for

manufacturing and installing offshore wind turbines. Consultation of the proposed Able

Killingholme Marine Energy Park (MEP) has recently been conducted. When constructed, this

will create approximately 4,000 jobs on site and in the local area that will range from offshore

wind turbine manufacturing to offshore wind farm installation works from the Port’s quay.

5.2.12 The Port is well positioned to serve future large scale UK offshore wind farms in the North

Sea, including Triton Knoll, and potentially those in European waters (Figure 5.3 below).


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 44

Port of Hull

5.2.13 The Port of Hull operator ABP has announced recently its plans to invest £100 million to

construct a new deepwater berth at the Port to enable offshore wind turbine manufacturing at

its site. Under the plan Siemens proposes to invest £80 million to establish its first offshore

wind manufacturing plant in the UK at Hull’s Alexandra Dock. This would create an estimated

1,200 jobs and would boost the UK supply chain in the region together with the Able

Killingholme MEP.

5.2.14 The plant at Hull would be manufacturing 6MW sized wind turbines. Assuming the scheme

receives planning consent, it is likely to be operational by 2014.

Hornsea Zone

5.2.15 The Hornsea Zone is expected to deliver 4GW of offshore wind installed capacity by 2020.

Consultation is currently underway, and if consent is granted, construction of the Hornsea

Project One Block 1 (600 MW) and Block 2 (600 MW capacity) would be anticipated to start in

2014. Hornsea Zone developer Smart Wind Ltd has recently secured grid connection for 1GW

of wind energy at Killingholme.

Dogger Bank

5.2.16 Dogger Bank Zone is anticipated to be started off with the Dogger Bank Tranche A projects

delivering up to 3GW in total. An application for a Development Consent Order is to be

submitted for Dogger Bank Project One. Assuming this scheme is granted consent

construction would be expected to start in April 2015 with the wind farm operational by 2018.

There is no information about the expected completion year for the rest of the Tranche A.

5.2.17 Dogger Bank Tranches B, C, and D can potentially deliver up to 13GW of installed offshore

wind capacity. The current target for 2020 is 9GW, with the rest delivered by 2023.

5.3 Population and Labour Market

Study Area 1

Population Structure

5.3.1 In 2009 the estimated populations of the North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire areas

were similar at 161,000 and 157,000 respectively. Collectively they account for 6% of the

population of the wider Yorkshire and Humber area. Both North and North East Lincolnshire

have similar working age population levels and a higher proportion of older people in

comparison to the wider Yorkshire and Humber region as well as at the national level.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 45

Table 5.1 Population Structure

Children 0-15 Working age 16 - 64M/59F

Older people 65M/60F and

over

Total

North Lincolnshire 30,100 (18.7%) 96,100 (59.7%) 34,800 (21.6%) 161,000

North East Lincolnshire

30,200 (19.2%) 94,200 (60.0%) 32,700 (20.8%) 157,100

Yorkshire and the Humber

971,200 (17.6%)

3,273,400 (59.2%)

1,013,500 (18.3%)

5,528,100

Great Britain 11,166,900 (18.6%)

37,131,100 (61.9%)

11,705,100 (19.5%)

60,003,100

Source: ONS (2011) mid-year population estimates

5.3.2 Between 2001 and 2009 the North Lincolnshire population increased by approximately 5.2%.

This population growth was consistent with the growth recorded across Yorkshire and the

Humber (+5.7%) and Great Britain (+4.5%). However, across the same time period the

population of North East Lincolnshire decreased slightly by 0.6%.

Figure 5.4 Population Growth 2001-2009

Source: ONS (2011) midyear population estimates

Population Projections

5.3.3 ONS sub-national population projections (2008) indicate that all areas within the study area

will experience increases in their populations by 2017. These increases are predominately

accounted for by significant increases in their ageing populations. North Lincolnshire and

North East Lincolnshire are projected to see increases of 27.3% and 16.4% respectively in

their population over the age of 65 by 2017. Yorkshire and the Humber is also anticipated to

have a 20.7% increase in this population bracket. By 2033 these trends are set to continue,

with increases of over 50% in the ageing population projected across all areas.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 46

5.3.4 In North Lincolnshire, Yorkshire and the Humber and Great Britain, there are modest

increases predicted in their working populations by 2017. However, North East Lincolnshire

is expected to see a decline of 2.5% in this age bracket.

Table 5.2 Population increase 2008-2033

2008 Population

2017 Population

% increase in

population from 2008

2033 Population

% increase in

population from 2008

North Lincolnshire

160,500 171,900 7.1% 190,400 18.6%


157,200 159,700 1.6% 166,300 5.8%


5,218,500 5,617,100 7.7% 6,296,000 20.7%

Great Britain 59,619,000 63,323,000 6.2% 69,607,000 16.8%

Source: ONS sub-national population projections (2008)

Figure 5.5 Projected population by age bracket, 2008-2017


Economic Activity

5.3.5 Economic activity rates in North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire are higher than both

the Yorkshire and Humber and Great British averages, indicating that employment

opportunities are good.

5.3.6 The employment rates are also higher in North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire than

the wider Yorkshire and Humber area and are similar to the Great Britain rate.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 47

5.3.7 Rates of self-employment are lower in both North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire

than in Yorkshire and the Humber and Great Britain.

Table 5.3 Economic Activity

North Lincolnshire



Great Britain

Economic Activity - % of working age population

77.2 78.3 75.7 76.4

In Employment - % of working age population

71.0 69.0 68.9 70.4

Employees - % of working age population

63.1 62.5 60.2 60.9

Self-Employed - % of working age population

7.3 5.7 8.2 9

Source: ONS annual population survey, Jul 2009-Jun 2010

Occupations

5.3.8 Unskilled occupations account for a significantly higher proportion of the workforces of both

North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire compared to the Great British average. The

occupational profile of North and North East Lincolnshire suggests that the former has more

workers in highly skilled categories and the latter more workers in skilled trades occupations.

5.3.9 In the wider Yorkshire and Humber area, the proportion of its workforce is more similar to the

Great Britain as a whole. However, like North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire, it has

proportionally higher numbers of unskilled workers and lower numbers of highly skilled

workers.

Figure 5.6 Occupations

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

North Lincolnshire



Great Britain

% Highly Skilled

Skilled

Unskilled

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey (Jul 2009- Jun 2010)

Qualifications and skills


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 48

5.3.10 Analysis of the annual population survey shows that the population of the profile area is

relatively under-skilled compared to the wider Great Britain averages. The North and North

East Lincolnshire regions have significantly lower levels of their population with qualifications

higher than NVQ 2 compared to the Great Britain average.

5.3.11 North East Lincolnshire in particular is performing poorly with lower levels of educational

achievement in all categories compared to the rest of Great Britain. It also has a higher

proportion of its population with no qualifications. The low qualification attainment levels in

North East Lincolnshire are confirmed by the IMD10 Education, Skills and Training domain.

The domain draws upon a number of indicators including working age adults with no

qualifications, the proportion of under 21 year olds not entering Higher Education and average

points scores at Key Stage 2, 3 and 4. There are 29 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in

North East Lincolnshire that are ranked within the 10 per cent of most educationally deprived

areas in England. Moreover the majority of LSOAs (45%) located within North East

Lincolnshire are in the top 10-20% most deprived areas.

5.3.12 The lower than average qualification attainment levels can be attributed to a number of

factors, including the existing employment profile, a lack of ambition and the unavailability of

Higher Education provision.

5.3.13 In Yorkshire and the Humber, the rates of educational achievement are similar to the wider

Great Britain levels.

Table 5.4 Qualifications

Level of Qualification North Lincolnshire numbers %

North East Lincolnshire %

Yorkshire and the Humber %

Great Britain %

NVQ 4 & above 22.7 17.3 26.6 29.9

NVQ 3 43.4 37.5 47.0 49.3

NVQ 2 60.7 57.7 63.5 65.4

NVQ1 80.0 77.0 78.6 78.9

Other Qualification 9.8 10.1 8.6 8.8

None 10.2 12.8 12.8 12.3

Source: ONS annual population survey (Jan 2009 – Dec 2009)

Unemployment

5.3.14 Unemployment in the study area has been consistently higher than the Great Britain average

over the past 10 years. In particular, unemployment in North East Lincolnshire has been

10 The index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD 2007) gives scores for Super Output Areas (SOA’s) which are areas

covering about 1,000 population. The IMD 2007 contains seven domains of deprivation; income deprivation, employment deprivation, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training deprivation, barriers to housing and services, living environment deprivation and crime.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 49

significantly higher. The average claimant count between January 2000 and January 2011

was 4.6%, whilst the national average was only 2.8%. North Lincolnshire and Yorkshire and

the Humber have fared better over this time period, with average claimant counts of 3.1% and

3.2% respectively. All areas have experienced increases in claimant counts between 2008

and 2010, reflecting the impact of the recession. Current claimant counts levels have since

fallen.

5.3.15 Within North East Lincolnshire, in terms of seasonality, unemployment has traditionally

fluctuated between the winter and summer months, highlighting the relative importance of

tourism-related activities in the area. Similar fluctuations have been recorded in North

Lincolnshire and the wider Yorkshire and the Humber area, but to a lesser extent. This

indicates that the job markets in these areas are more consistent throughout the year, with

less reliance on seasonal-based employment.

Figure 5.7 Unemployment Rate (%)

Source: ONS claimant count

5.3.16 It should be noted that there is a significant difference between the claimant count rate and

the true unemployment rate. The most recent unemployment rate recorded by the Annual

Population Survey, shows that in 2010 the true unemployment rates in North Lincolnshire

(8.0% of those aged between 16-64) and North East Lincolnshire (11.9%) are nearly double

their claimant counts. At Yorkshire and the Humber level, the rate is more than twice the

claimant count at 9.0%. However, the trend is still similar to the claimant count rate in that the

rates of true unemployment in these areas are higher than the national average of 7.9%. The

rates of true unemployment are continuing to rise in North East Lincolnshire and Yorkshire

and the Humber, but have fallen in North Lincolnshire.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 50

Earnings

5.3.17 The gross weekly earnings in the study area are significantly lower than average national

earnings. For example, in North East Lincolnshire the weekly workplace and residence

earnings were £419.80 and £428.90 respectively. This is far less than the national averages

of £500.40 for weekly workplace earnings and £501.80 for residence earnings. This reflects

the employment profile of the whole study area, which has an abundance of low growth

businesses with a high employee numbers and a continuing reliance on low paid sectors such

as food manufacturing and retail.

Figure 5.8 Gross Weekly Earnings, 2010

Source: ONS annual survey of hours and earnings

Deprivation

5.3.18 The overall Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD 2007) for North and North East Lincolnshire is

shown below in Figure 5.9. It shows that both areas as a whole are relatively deprived, with

some isolated pockets of limited deprivation. This is especially true in North East Lincolnshire

with high levels of deprivation around Immingham and Grimsby. There is also severe

deprivation in North Lincolnshire around Scunthorpe. Overall there are 35 lower super output

areas (LSOAs) falling within the top 10% of the most deprived wards in England.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 51

Figure 5.9 Total IMD deprivation North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire

5.3.19 Specifically in terms of the Housing IMD, North and North East Lincolnshire both fare better.

The majority of LSOAs in these areas fall into the 20%-10% least deprived areas in terms of

housing. In total only 7 LSOAs within these two areas are in the 10% most deprived areas for

housing.

5.3.20 However, in terms of Income IMD, North East Lincolnshire has 38 LSOA’s within the top 10-

20% most income deprived areas in the country. This reflects evidence in previous sections

of this report which state that generally people in North East Lincolnshire are paid significantly

less than the national average. North Lincolnshire also has 20 LSOA’s within this same

bracket, which shows that its residents are also lowly paid on average compared to the rest of

the country.

Study Area 2

Population Structure

5.3.21 The population of East Lindsey was estimated to be 140,800 in 2009. This accounts for 3.1%

of the population of the wider East Midland area. East Lindsey has a significantly lower

proportion of its population at a working age compared to East Midlands and Great Britain.

East Lindsey also has a higher proportion of its population who are in an older age category.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 52

Table 5.5 Population Structure

Children 0-15 Working age 16 - 64M/59F

Older people 65M/60F and over

Total

East Lindsey 21,900 (15.6%) 77,400 (55.0%) 41,600 (29.5%) 140,800

East Midlands

815,800 (18.3%) 2,741,700 (61.6%)

893,800 (20.1%) 4,451,200

Great Britain 11,166,900 (18.6%)

37,131,100 (61.9%)

11,705,100 (19.5%)

60,003,100

Source: ONS (2011) mid-year population estimates

5.3.22 East Lindsey’s population grew by approximately by 7.7% between 2001 and 2009. This

population growth rate was greater than that recorded in East Midlands (+6.2%) and Great

Britain (+4.5%).

Figure 5.10 Population Growth 2001-2009

Source: ONS (2011) midyear population estimates

Population Projections

5.3.23 Similar to Study Area 1, East Lindsey and East Midlands are both projected to see their

populations increase by 2017. Moreover, both these areas are projected to have large

increases of 32.8% and 26.6% respectively in terms of their ageing population size. The East

Lindsey area is expected to see a slight decline in its working age population by 2017, whilst

the East Midlands is projected to see an increase of 2.7%. The trends of high numbers of

people in the retirement age bracket and small increases in the working age population are

projected for all areas by 2033.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 53

Table 5.6 Population increase 2008-2033

Area 2008 Population

2017 Population

% increase in population

2033 Population

% increase in population

East Lindsey 141,100 152,500 8.1% 173,600 23.0%

East Midlands

4,429,300 4,759,700 7.5% 5,334,000 20.4%

Great Britain 59,619,000 63,323,000 6.2% 69,607,000 16.8%


Figure 5.11 Projected population by age bracket in 2017


Economic activity

5.3.24 The economic activity rate in East Lindsey (70.3%) is significantly lower than the East

Midlands (77.0%) and Great Britain (76.4%) averages. This suggests that there may be

limited job opportunities in certain areas of East Lindsey.

5.3.25 The employment rate is also lower in East Lindsey (68.5%) than the East Midlands (71.6%)

and Great Britain (70.4%).

5.3.26 However, rates of self-employment are higher in East Lindsey (11.0%) than the East Midlands

(8.2%) and Great Britain (9%) as a whole. This suggests that there is a higher proportion of

smaller businesses in East Lindsey than the wider area.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 54


East Lindsey

East Midlands

Great Britain

Economic Activity - % of working age population

70.3 77.0 76.4

In Employment - % of working age population

68.5 71.6 70.4

Employees - % of working age population

57.5 63.0 60.9

Self-Employed - % of working age population

11.0 8.2 9.0

Source: ONS annual population survey, Jul 2009-Jun 2010

Occupations

5.3.27 Skilled occupations account for a significantly higher proportion of the workforce in East

Lindsey compared to the Great Britain average. This suggests that middle income individuals

are attracted to the East Lindsey area. Whilst the proportion of unskilled workers is

comparable to the Great Britain average, there appears to be a distinct lack of highly skilled

workers in the East Lindsey area. Only 33% of workers in East Lindsey are highly skilled

which is low compared to the 44% Great British average. This suggests that East Lindsey

has a relatively weak private sector.

5.3.28 The wider East Midlands occupational profile is much closer to the Great Britain averages. It

has a more comparable rate of highly skilled workers, who make up 41% of the workforce.

Figure 5.12 Occupations

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey (Jul 2009- Jun 2010)


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 55

Qualifications and skills

5.3.29 In terms of educational achievement, the populations of East Lindsey and the East Midlands

are under-skilled, compared to wider Great Britain levels. Approximately, 13.8% and 13.0%

of the adult populations of East Lindsey and East Midlands respectively had no qualifications

at all, compared to the 12.3% Great Britain average. At the other end of the scale, just 21.1%

and 25.7% of the adult populations of East Lindsey and East Midlands respectively achieved

NVQ4 qualifications and above, which is lower than the level recorded across Great Britain

(29.9%). In terms of the Education, Skills and Training IMD11, in East Lindsey the majority

(18.8%) of LSOAs were classed under the 30% most deprived domain bracket. Therefore,

there is a skills deficit in the study area.

Table 5.8 Qualifications

Level of Qualification East Lindsey % East Midlands % Great Britain %

NVQ 4 & above 21.1 25.7 29.9

NVQ 3 43.0 47.2 49.3

NVQ 2 59.7 63.9 65.4

NVQ1 77.2 78.9 78.9

Other Qualification 9.0 8.1 8.8

None 13.8 13.0 12.3

Source: ONS annual population survey (Jan 2009 – Dec 2009)

Earnings

5.3.30 The gross weekly earnings in East Lindsey are significantly lower than the Great Britain

average. Workers in East Lindsey are receiving wages currently around 80% of national

wage average for workplace and residence earnings. This reflects that there are a high

number of retail and tourism related jobs in the area, which is traditionally lower paid work.

5.3.31 The wage rates in the East Midlands are also lower than the national average, indicating the

existence of low skilled, low paid employment in the wider area.

11

The index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD 2007) gives scores for Super Output Areas (SOA’s) which are areas covering about 1,000 population. The IMD 2007 contains seven domains of deprivation; income deprivation, employment deprivation, health deprivation and disability, education skills and training deprivation, barriers to housing and services, living environment deprivation and crime.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 56

Figure 5.13 Gross Weekly Earnings

Source: ONS annual survey of hours and earnings (2010)

Unemployment

5.3.32 Unemployment in East Lindsey has remained consistently just above the Great Britain

average over the past 10 years. The average claimant count in East Lindsey between

January 2000 and January 2011 was 3.0%, higher than the national average of 2.8%. East

Midlands had a lower average claimant count over the same period at 2.6%. Both East

Lindsey and East Midlands have mirrored the national trend in rises and falls in the claimant

rate. Due to the recession, all areas have experienced increases in their claimant counts

between 2008 and 2010. However, recent figures show that claimant count levels are

beginning to fall again.

5.3.33 East Lindsey is particularly sensitive to seasonal-based employment. There are extreme

fluctuations in unemployment between the winter and summer months, indicating the high

importance of tourism in the area. Unemployment trends in East Midlands are far less

sensitive to periodic fluctuations, indicating there are more reliable forms of employment in

the area.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 57

Figure 5.14 Claimant count rate in East Lindsey and benchmark areas

Source: ONS claimant count

5.3.34 The most recent International Labour Organisation (ILO) unemployment rate recorded by the

Annual Population Survey, shows that in 2010 the true unemployment rates in East Lindsey

were 2.5% (of those aged between 16-64) and 7.3% in East Midlands. The most recent

claimant rate in East Lindsey for January 2011 is 4.0%, however this reflects high seasonality

of unemployment in the district and is expected to fall in June 2011. The most recent

claimant rate in East Midlands is 3.5%, which suggests that unemployment in this area has

remained fairly stable over the past 6 months.

Deprivation

5.3.35 The overall Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD 2007) for East Lindsey is shown below in

Figure 5.15. It shows that the area as a whole has low levels of deprivation but with some

significant concentrations of severe deprivation, especially around the Skegness and

Mablethorpe areas. Overall there are 15 lower super output areas (LSOAs) falling within the

top 20% of the most deprived wards in England.

5.3.36 East Lindsey fares poorly on Housing Deprivation domain of the IMD as nearly 28% of its

LSOAs fall into the 10-20% most deprived areas for housing.

5.3.37 Moreover, in terms of Income Deprivation domain, East Lindsey has 26 LSOAs within the top

10-30% most income deprived areas in the country. The represents nearly a third of their


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 58

LSOA’s. This supports previous statements in this report which concluded that many of the

residents in East Lindsey are in low skilled occupations which pay significantly less than the

national rate.

Figure 5.15 Total IMD deprivation East Lindsey

5.4 Employment and Business by sector

Study Area 1

Employment Structure by Sectors

5.4.1 Sectors that are important to North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire economies are

public administration, education and health, manufacturing and retail. Over a quarter of jobs


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 59

are in public administration, education and health. This is a similar trend to the wider

Yorkshire and Humber and Great Britain areas.

5.4.2 Those employed in manufacturing in North Lincolnshire (21%) and North East Lincolnshire

(14%) represent a significantly higher proportion than the Great British average of 9%.

Figure 5.16 Jobs by Sector

Source: Annual Business Survey (ABS) 2009

Strength of business sectors

5.4.3 An analysis of the strength of the industry sectors in North and North East Lincolnshire is

presented in Figure 5.17. The chart shows local sector representation compared to Great

Britain on the horizontal axis and each sector’s recent national employment growth on the

vertical axis12

.

5.4.4 From this you can assess what sectors have higher than average (national average) number

of employees in the local area and whether they fall into the category of declining or growing

sectors nationally. The following can be observed about the in North and North East

Lincolnshire area business sectors.

12 The graph shows employment growth between 2000 and 2008 and therefore does not take into account the current

recession. The recession has affected all sectors, in particular, the construction and finance sectors


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 60

5.4.5 Sectors located in the bottom left quadrant have been experiencing negative annual growth

rates since 2000 nationally and are under-represented locally compared to the national

average. Sectors strongly represented in this quadrant are Post and Telecommunications,

Publishing and Printing, the Manufacture of Motor Vehicles and the Manufacturing of

Furniture. All these sectors have small workforces; therefore, any further decline nationally in

these sectors is unlikely to affect the North and North East Lincolnshire areas too significantly.

Other sectors in this quadrant which have experienced less national negative growth include

Financial Intermediation, Activities of Membership Organisations and Air Transport. All these

sectors again have small workforce numbers. Sectors in this quadrant require assistance in

managing redundancies, modernisation and restructuring into higher value activities.

5.4.6 Sectors located in the bottom right quadrant are those, which are over-represented locally

but have also been experiencing decline nationally. Key sectors in this quadrant, which are

highly represented locally, are a number of manufacturing industries, including the

Manufacturing of: Basic Metals (not shown on chart as LQ score 14 off the scale), Non-

Metallic Products, Coke, Food and Beverages, Pulp and Paper Products and Chemicals.

Manufacturing of Food and Beverages in particular has a fairly large workforce. A significant

proportion of this workforce can be attributed to the large numbers of food manufacturing

companies situated around the Greater Grimsby area. Moreover, the Manufacturing of Basic

Metals also has a large workforce, 14 times greater than the national average. This suggests

that both North and North East Lincolnshire have strong histories grounded in manufacturing.

There will be an increased concern that if these industries continue to decline, their over-

representation locally could lead to numerous redundancies in the future.

5.4.7 Sectors located in the top right quadrant of the chart combine above-average representation

with employment growth. Sectors such as Construction and Retail are well represented

locally with large workforces and have been supported by strong growth nationally. Other

sectors which grew the most between 2000 and 2008 are Health and Social Work. These

sectors provide further growth opportunities for North and North East Lincolnshire areas.

However these sectors already have large workforces in the area. Therefore, over-

representation may mean that growth begins to slow down. This is especially true about

Construction sector that has been hit by recession in the last few years.

5.4.8 Sectors located in the top left quadrant are those that generate employment growth, but are

still relatively under-represented in comparison to the national level. These include real

estate activities, other business activities, education, recreational, cultural and sporting

activities, public administration, hotels and restaurants and activities auxiliary to financial

intermediation. These sectors may provide the greatest opportunities for local growth in the

future.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 61

Figure 5.17 Location Quotient – North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire

Agriculture

Manufacturing of food and beverages

Manufacture of wood

Manufacture of pulp and paper products

Publishing and printing

Manufacture of chemicals

Manufacture of rubberManufacture of non-metallic

products

Manufacture of fabricated metal products

Manufacture of machinery

Manufacture of furniture

Construction

Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles

Retail trade

Hotels and restaurants

Land transport

Supporting and auxiliary transport activities

Post and telecommunications

Financial intermediation

Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation

Real estate activities

Other business activities

Public administration

EducationHealth and social work

Activities of membership organisations

Recreational, cultural and sporting activities

Other service activities

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Low representation, positive growth

Low representation, negative growth

High representation,negative growth

High representation, positive growth


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 62

Number of businesses

5.4.9 Over 20% of businesses in North and North East Lincolnshire are in the construction

and manufacturing sectors. These business concentrations are higher than the

national average. This represents the legacy of the traditional industrial backgrounds

of both these areas. It also underlines the vulnerability of their economies as these

sectors have been in long term structural decline.

5.4.10 There is also a significant retail presence in this study area, particularly within North

East Lincolnshire. 22% of businesses within North East Lincolnshire are retail related,

which is higher than the Great Britain average of 17%. A proportion of these

businesses can be attributed to a number of businesses who retail fish-related

products around the Greater Grimsby area.

Figure 5.18 Number of Businesses

Source: ONS annual business inquiry 2008

Size of businesses

5.4.11 There is a consistent trend across the whole of the study area in regard to business

size. Around 83% of businesses within North and North East Lincolnshire and

Yorkshire and the Humber employ 1-10 employees. This is less than the Great

Britain average of 85%. However, there is a greater proportion (13%) of small to

medium sized businesses employing 10-49 employees within the study area,

compared to the national average of 11.5%.

5.4.12 The distribution of larger businesses is consistent to wider national averages.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 63

Figure 5.19 Size of Businesses

Source: Annual Businesses Survey

Job Density

5.4.13 To assess the balance of local jobs and working age residents the proportion of jobs

per working age resident has been compared to the national average.

Figure 5.20 Job Density

Source: ONS jobs density 2008

5.4.14 North East Lincolnshire and the wider Yorkshire and the Humber area have

particularly low job densities. It is common in areas with low densities that that the

supply of employees exceeds the demand, and often residents will have to work in

other areas (outward commuting) or be unemployed or economically inactive.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 64

5.4.15 The job density in North Lincolnshire is on par with the national average, which

indicates that there are good employment opportunities within the area.

Study Area 2

Employment Structure by sector

5.4.16 East Lindsey’s employment structure is heavily influenced by its past in terms of

agriculture, tourism and traditional manufacturing. Moreover, it has a relatively weak

private sector with over a quarter of jobs in East Lindsey in the public sector. This is

a trend which is mirrored at the wider East Midlands and national levels. The retail

sector in East Lindsey is also significant employing around 17% of the workforce,

which is higher than the national average of 15%.

Figure 5.21 Jobs by Sector

Source: ONS annual business inquiry employee analysis 2008

Strength of business sectors

5.4.17 Figure 5.22 presents an analysis of the strength of the industry sectors in East

Lindsey in terms of their Location Quotient scores13

:

5.4.18 The sectors that are under-represented locally but have also been experiencing a

decline nationally in the bottom left quadrant are a number of East Lindsey’s

13 The Location Quotient (LQ) is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the

national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the area of analysis and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 65

smaller manufacturing industries including the Manufacture of Basic Metals, Non-

metallic Products, Chemicals, Fabricated Metal Products, Coke and Food and

Beverages. The manufacture of Basic Metals in particular falls strongly in this

category. Others sectors in this quadrant include Post and Telecommunications and

Electricity, Gas, Steam and Hot Water.

5.4.19 Sectors in the bottom right quadrant experiencing a decline nationally, but which

are over-represented locally, are again a number of manufacturing industries,

including the Manufacture of Pulp and Paper Products (not shown on chart as LQ

score 6.5 too high for scale) Rubber, Machinery, Furniture and Wood. The

manufacture of Pulp and Paper Products in particular has seen a significant decrease

in growth. The number of people employed in this sector in East Lindsey is more

than 6 times the national average. Other sectors in this quadrant include Publishing

and Printing and the Sale, Maintenance and Repair of Motor Vehicles.

5.4.20 The Hotels and Restaurants sector in East Lindsey is well represented locally and

has high employment growth and therefore falls into the top right quadrant. A

number of these jobs can be attributed to tourism destinations in East Lindsey

including Skegness. Another sector that falls into this category and is not shown in

the chart due to its high location quotient (5.44) is Agriculture. This sectors employs

more than 5 times the national average, which is not surprising given the rural nature

of East Lindsey. Recycling is another sector which is well represented locally. Whilst

this sector’s workforce is relatively small, this is becoming a high growth area for the

future. Other positive areas in this quadrant include Health and Social Work, Land

Transport and Education.

5.4.21 Sectors generating employment growth but which are underrepresented locally in the

top left quadrant are mainly office-based higher value sectors such as Real Estate,

Business Activities, Financial Intermediation and Computer Related Activities. These

sectors need to be significantly developed in East Lindsey as they could provide

strong employment opportunities in the future.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 67

Figure 5. 22 Location Quotient – East Lindsey

Manufacturing of food and beverages

Manufacture of coke

Manufacture of chemicals

Manufacture of rubberManufacture of non-metallic products

Manufacture basic metals

Manufacture of fabricated metal products

Manufacture of machinery

Electricity, gas, steam and hot water

Construction

Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles

Wholesale trade Retail trade

Hotels and restaurants

Land transport

Supporting and auxiliary transport activities

Post and telecommunications

Financial intermediation

Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation

Real estate activities

Computer and related activites

Other business activities

Public administration

EducationHealth and social work

Recreational, cultural and sporting activities

Other service activities

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Low representation, positive growth

High representation, positive growth

Low representation, negative growth

High representation,negative growth


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 69

Number of Businesses

5.4.22 There are a slightly greater proportion of retail units in East Lindsey compared to the

East Midlands and Great Britain averages. There are also a significant number of

businesses units related to public administration, education & health in the study

area, which is consistent with the higher number of jobs related to these sectors.

Both East Lindsey and East Midlands are well represented in terms of construction

companies.

Figure 5.22 Number of Businesses

Source: ONS annual business inquiry 2008

Size of Businesses

5.4.23 The distribution of business sizes across the study area are generally consistent with

national levels i.e. the majority of businesses employee between 1-10 employees with

a low percentage of businesses that employee 200 or greater employees. The only

differences are that East Lindsey has a slightly greater proportion of small businesses

and a lower proportion of medium to larger sized businesses. This trend is typical for

a rural economy such as East Lindsey.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 70

Table 5.8 Size of Businesses

Source: Annual Businesses Survey

Job Density

5.4.24 East Lindsey has an extremely low job density rate (0.66) compared to the national

average of 0.79. This indicates that there are weak job opportunities in the area with

people having to seek work in other areas. Therefore, greater job opportunities are

needed to meet the excess supply of labour within North Lindsey. The same can be

said for the wider East Midlands area, as it has job density of 0.75 which too is lower

than the national trend.

Table 5.9 Job Density

Source: ONS Job density 2008


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 71

5.5 Labour Market Catchment

5.5.1 Information about the future construction port and O&M site is not available at this

stage. It is therefore assumed that these may be in or in close proximity to key ports

in the Humber area, i.e. Hull, Killingholme and Grimsby. To understand the impacts of

Triton Knoll OWF activities 30-minute, 45-minute and 90-minute drive-time catchment

areas centered around these ports have been determined.

Hull

5.5.2 The drive-time catchments for Hull are shown in Figure 5.22 below:

Figure 5.22 Map of Drive-Time catchment areas - Hull

Source: RTP

Population

5.5.3 A 30-minute drive-time contains a catchment of over 419,000 people; a 45-minute

catchment has over 504,000 people; whilst a 90-minute drive-time covers over

2,830,000 people. Both 30-minute and 45-minute drive-time areas have a higher

proportion of their populations in the working age brackets than the national average.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 72

Table 5.10 Population Breakdowns

30 Minutes 45 Minutes

90 Minutes Great Britain %

0-15 years 77,908 (18.6%)

93,003 (18.4%)

535,170 (18.9%)

19.0%

16 - retirement (16-64 males, 16-59 females)

263,773 (62.9%)

314,910 (62.4%

1,753,035 (61.8%)

62.2%

Retirement age+ (65+ males, 60+ females)

77,646 (18.5%)

96426 (19.1%)

548,839 (19.3%)

18.8%

Total 419,237 504,339 2,837,044 -

Source: 2008 Mid Year Population Estimates

Economic Activity/Unemployment

5.5.4 Economic activity rates in all the drive-times areas are slightly below Great Britain as

a whole. Unemployment rates across the catchment areas are also higher than the

national average. This indicates that there is a potential labour reserve within the

Hull drive-time areas.


30 Minutes 45 Minutes 90 Minutes Great Britain %

All People Aged 16-74 Employed-GB

288,570 347,042 1,969,212 41,338,517

Economically active 185779 224,248 1,275,905 24,446,285

Economic activity rate %

64.0% 65.0% 65.0% 66%

Unemployed 13,793 15,572 76,889 1,409,425

Unemployed % 5% 4% 4% 3%

Source: Census 2001

Employment by sector

5.5.5 A higher proportion of people within the drive-time areas are employed in

manufacturing (between 18-19% compared with 15% nationally). However, overall

the proportions of jobs across all the drive-time areas are very similar to the wider

national averages.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 73

Figure 5.23 Employment by sector

Source: Census 2001, Office for National Statistics

Occupational Structure

5.5.6 In terms of occupation the local area has a higher proportion of workers employed in

manual occupations than the national average. Within the 30-minute drive-time area

46% of workers are employed in manual occupations compared to the 39% national

average. Conversely there are lower proportions of highly skilled workers across the

drive-time areas.

Figure 5.24 Occupational Structure



RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 74

Killingholme

5.5.7 The drive-time catchments for Killingholme are shown in Figure 5.25 below:

Figure 5.25 Map of Drive-Time catchment areas - Killingholme

Source: RTP

Population

5.5.8 A 30-minute drive-time contains a catchment of over 162,000 people; the 45-minute

catchment has over 547,900 people; whilst the 90-minute drive-time covers over

4,358,000 people. All drive-time areas have a lower proportion of their populations in

the working age bracket than the national average. Conversely a larger proportion of

the drive-times areas population is made up of people of retirement age.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 75


30 Minutes 45 Minutes 90 Minutes Great Britain %

0-15 years 32,908 (20.2%)

103,262 (18.8%)

821,963 (18.9%)

19.0%

16- retirement (16-64 males, 16-59 females)

98,881 (60.7%)

333,567 (60.9%)

2,707,625 (62.1%)

62.2%


31,031 (19.1%)

111,095 (20.3%)

828,679 (19.0%)

18.8%

Total 162,820 547,924 4,358,267



5.5.9 Economic activity rates in the 30-minute drive-time area are the same as the national

average. Both the 45-minute and 90-minute drive-time areas have economic activity

rates below the Great Britain average. Unemployment rates across the all the drive-

time catchment areas are also slightly higher than the national average. This

indicates that there is a potential supply of labour within the Killingholme drive-time

areas.





112,573 381,272 3,039,330 41,338,517

Economically active

74,108 248,693 1,943,089 27,446,285


66.0% 65.0% 64.0% 66.0%

Unemployed 5,831 16,688 120,245 1,409,425

Unemployed % 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3%

Source: Census 2001


5.5.10 23% of people within the 30-minute drive-time catchment area are employed in

manufacturing which is significantly more than the national average of 15%. There

are low proportions of people working in the business and financial sectors across all

the drive-time catchment areas.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 76




5.5.11 In terms of occupation the local area has a higher proportion of workers employed in

manual occupations than the national average. Within the 30-minute drive-time area

52% of workers are employed in manual occupations compared to the 39% national

average. There are low rates of highly skilled workers across the drive-time areas

compared to the national averages.




RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 77

Grimsby

5.5.12 The drive-time catchments for Grimsby are shown in Figure 5.28 below.

Figure 5.28 Map of Drive-Time catchment areas - Grimsby

Source: RTP

Population

5.5.13 A 30-minute drive-time contains a catchment of over 182,000 people; the 45-minute

catchment has over 248,000 people; whilst the 90-minute drive-time covers over

1,897,000 people. All drive-time areas have a lower proportion of their populations in

the working age brackets than the national average. Conversely a larger proportion

of the drive-times areas population is made up of people of retirement age.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 78




0-15 years 36,349 (20.0%)

48,170 (19.4%)

357,791 (18.9%)

19.0%

16- retirement (16-64 males, 16-59 females)

109,505 (60.1%)

148,987 (60.0%)

1,157,287 (61.0%)

62.2%


36,321 (19.9%)

50,961 (20.5%)

382,736 (20.2%)

18.8%

Total 182,175 248,118 1,897,814



5.5.14 The economic activity rates in the 45-minute drive-time area are the same as the

national average. Both the 30-minute and 90-minute drive-time areas have economic

activity rates below the Great Britain average. Unemployment rates across all the

drive-time catchment areas are also slightly higher than the national average. This

indicates that there is a potential supply of labour within the Grimsby drive-time areas.





127,474 172,311 1,315,961 41,338,517

Economically active 83,474 113,087 843,083 27,446,285


65.0% 66.0% 64.0 66.0%

Unemployed 6,623 8,193 53,046 1,409,425

Unemployed % 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3%

Source: Census 2001


5.5.15 21% of people within the 30-minute and 45-minute drive-time catchment areas are

employed in manufacturing which is significantly more than the national average of

15%. The business and financial sectors are poorly represented across all the drive-

time catchment areas. All drive-time catchment areas have higher proportions of

retail related employment than the national average.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 79




5.5.16 Around 50% of workers within each of the drive-time catchment areas are employed

in manual occupations. On the contrary there are lower proportions of more highly

skilled workers across all the drive-time areas.




RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 80

5.6 Productivity and Gross-Value Added (GVA)

5.6.1 North and North East Lincolnshire combined (due to data availability) have an

average GVA per capita and per worker higher than the regional level. This reflects

the industrialised nature of the local economy. Productivity is, however, quite low

compared to the national average as presented in the Table 5.17 below.

5.6.2 East Lindsey is located in Lincolnshire, for which sub-regional GVA data is available.

GVA per capita here – at £14,485 - is considerably lower than in neighbouring North

and North East Lincolnshire despite the regional GVA in East Midlands being slightly

higher than that in Yorkshire and The Humber. Similarly productivity is very low.

Table 5.17 Average GVA per capita and per worker, 2008

GVA per capita GVA per worker

North and North East Lincolnshire 17,743 38,334

Yorkshire and The Humber 17,149 37,828

Lincolnshire CC 14 485 34,020

East Midlands 17 914 38,718

Great Britain 21,764 43,077

Source: ONS

5.6.3 A more detailed breakdown of the value added generated by different sectors of the

economy shows that Production sectors in North and North East Lincolnshire have a

very high GVA per worker - £73,770, much higher than regionally and nationally. At

the same time productivity in most of the other broad sectors is lower than in the

benchmark areas, except for Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing where GVA per

worker is higher than regional and national averages. Business Services and Finance

broad sector has much lower productivity compared to the national average.

5.6.4 Productivity in Lincolnshire (applicable to East Lindsey study area) is highest in the

Construction sector. GVA per worker in Production and Business Services and

Finance sectors is considerably lower than national averages. Only one broad sector

– Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing – has productivity higher than in the region and

nationally. This reflects the predominantly rural nature of the area.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 81

Figure 5.28 GVA per worker by broad sector

Source: ONS (2008) Regional Gross Value Added/Annual Business Inquiry 2008

5.7 Education and Training

East Midlands

5.7.1 The Regional Economic Strategy (RES) for the East Midlands 2006-2020 sets the

framework for long term sustainable economic growth in the region and describes

how the region will “mobilise its resources and engage every person, business and

organisation to maximise the opportunities available to us”. This includes addressing

the proportion of the working population with no qualifications and enabling those in

work to develop higher level skills.

5.7.2 Having a workforce with the right skills to take advantage of employment

opportunities is one of the factors influencing regional productivity and the RES

identifies that there is still a clear gap in workforce skills between the East Midlands

and the UK, with a higher proportion of the working population with no qualifications,

requiring basis skills training as well as higher level qualifications.

5.7.3 To address these issues associated with employment, learning and skills the RES in

Section 7 sets out the following priority actions:

• Engaging schools and colleges with business.

• Developing adult workforce skills.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 82

• Stimulating skills demand.

• Matching skills provision to employer demand.

• Exploiting the opportunity of higher education.

5.7.4 The indicators for the success of these actions (to 2009) are as follows:

Table 5.18 Indicators for success of education and training measures

Measure to be applied Proposed target Baseline

Percentage of economically active adults qualified to Level

4 or higher.

To increase the proportion of

economically active adults qualified to a Level 4 or above to

30% by 2009.

East Midlands: 25%;

UK: 28.6% (2003).

Employment in K1 high knowledge intensive sectors

and

K4 low knowledge intensive sectors.

To increase the proportion of

employment in K1 sectors to within 4

percentage points of the UK average by

2009; and to reduce the share of

employment in K4 sectors to level with the UK average by

2009.

K1- East Midlands:

24.3%; UK: 32.1%

K4- East Midlands:

38.7%; UK: 30.9% (2003).

5.7.5 The East Lindsey Economic Baseline 2010 provides details of adult skills levels, skills

requirements and access to education and training.

5.7.6 In relation to adult skills levels the Baseline shows that 29.5% of the working

population are unskilled in 2009, marginally above the figure of 28.9% for the East

Midlands region14

. It is also noted that there are also literacy and numeracy skills

needs within the district, and higher skills levels (Level 4+) are significantly under-

represented with 19.1% of the working population qualified to this level compared to

28.7% nationally.

5.7.7 The Baseline states that, through consultation with some of the largest employers in

the district, difficulties have been identified in recruiting from the local labour force to

fill positions at the higher skills levels, whilst recruitment for low skilled jobs does not

pose problems.

14 Source: ONS via Nomis, 2009


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 83

5.7.8 Alongside the skills shortages it is noted that there is generally poor access to

education and training in the district, the nearest higher education providers being in

Boston, Grimsby and Lincoln.


5.7.9 A Regional Work and Skills Partnership (RWSP) has been established for Yorkshire

and the Humber to address the skills challenge outlined in the National Skills Strategy

"21st Century Skills Realising Our potential" White Paper. On their new website15

the

RWSP state that they are “concerned with ensuring that the ‘demands’ for skills from

Businesses, Communities and Individuals are matched by the ‘suppliers’ of skills

development (Education and Training providers) and are supported by the agencies/

organisations that fund or invest in skills training.”

5.7.10 In their 2009 publication ‘Yorkshire and Humber Regional Skills Partnership –

Balanced Scorecard’, the following priorities established by the RWSP in three key

areas are set out:

• Employability: to enhance the employability of individuals, improve basic skills,

and improve skills for everyday work.

• Higher level skills: to promote, develop and deliver skills training and

development in line with labour market needs.

• Business support: to refine and develop the offer to employers, providing

integrated support in response to customer needs.

5.7.11 The ‘Balanced Scorecard’ also set a number of targets in relation to improving skills

levels available to employers. These are listed below, together with applicable

baseline figures for the region and England provided in the report.

5.7.12 Target A4.1 aims to raise Level 316

performance at 19 to 65% by 2020. The figures

shown below for the percentage of 19 year olds with a Level 3 qualification from

ONS, NOMIS Labour Force Survey between 2004 and 2007 illustrate that there has

been a year on year increase in the region but that this is over 20% lower than the

target and, at 2007, 5% below the figure for England.

15 http://www.yhrsp.com

16 NVQ 3 equivalent: e.g. 2 or more A levels, advanced GNVQ, NVQ 3, 2 or more higher or advanced

higher national qualifications (Scotland) or equivalent (Source: Nomis)


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 84

Table 5.19 Percentage of 19 year olds with Level 3 qualification

2004 2005 2006 2007

England (%) 42.0 45.5 46.6 48.0

Yorkshire & Humber (%)

37.9

40.8 41.7 42.8

Source: DCSF: Level 2 and 3 Attainment by Young People in England Measured Using Matched Administrative Data: Attainment by Age 19 in 2007 (Provisional) (Table 2 – L3 by Region)

5.7.13 Target A4.2 aims to have 90% of working-age adults qualified to Level 217

to by 2020.

The figures shown below for the percentage of working age population with a NVQ

Level 2+ qualification between 1999 and 2007 illustrate that there has been a gradual

year on year increase in the region but that this is nearly 30% lower than the target

and, at 2007, nearly 3% below the figure for England.

Table 5.20 Percentage of working age population with NVQ Level 2+

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2005 2006 2007

England (%) 57.2 58.1 58.8 60.0 60.9 62.6 63.4 64.1

Yorkshire &

Humber (%)

56.0 56.3 56.8 58.9 60.1 60.5 60.7 61.3

Source: ONS, Nomis Labour Force Survey (1999 to 2003) and Annual Population Survey (2005 to 2007) (nomisweb.com) Jan-Dec Figures.

5.7.14 Target A4.3 aims to have 65% of working-age adults qualified to Level 3 to by 2020.

The figures shown below for the percentage of working age population with a NVQ

Level 3+ qualification between 1999 and 2007 illustrate that there has been a gradual

year on year increase in the region but that this is nearly 23% lower than the target

and, at 2007, nearly 4% below the figure for England.

Table 5.21 Percentage of working age population with NVQ Level 3+

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2005 2006 2007

England (%) 39.1 40.1 40.7 41.6 42.8 44.0 45.0 46.0


37.3 37.9 38.1 39.9 41.2 41.1 41.4 42.3


5.7.15 Target A4.4 aims to have 95% of adults have the basic skills of functional numeracy

by 2020. The 2003 estimated figures shown below for the percentage of adults with

functional numeracy18

illustrate that the 2003 estimates for the region and England

are similar and both around 18% lower than the target.

17 NVQ 2 equivalent: e.g. 5 or more GCSEs at grades A-C, intermediate GNVQ, NVQ 2, intermediate 2

national qualification (Scotland) or equivalent 18

Functional Numeracy is defined as those with Entry Level 3 or above


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 85

Table 5.22 Percentage of adults with functional numeracy

England (%) 78

Yorkshire & Humber (%) 77

Source: DfES - The Skills for Life survey: A national needs and impact survey of literacy, numeracy and ICT skills – October 2003

5.7.16 Target A4.5 aims to have over 40% of the working age population qualified to Level

419

by 2020. The figures shown below for the percentage of working age population

with a NVQ Level 4 qualification between 1999 and 2007 illustrate that there has

been a year on year increase in the region but that this is around 16% lower than the

target and, at 2007, 4.5% below the figure for England.

Table 5.23 Percentage of working age population with NVQ Level 4 qualification

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2005 2006 2007

England (%) 21.6 22.3 22.6 23.1 24.2 26.2 27.2 28.3


19.5 20.5 20.3 20.8 22.3 22.2 22.7 23.8


5.7.17 Target A4.6 aims to have less than 10% of adults with no qualifications by 2016. The

figures shown below for the percentage of working age population with no

qualifications between 1999 and 2007 illustrate that year on year, except for 2001/02,

there has been a decrease in those with no qualifications in the region, although at

2007 this was around 4.5% higher than the target and nearly 2% above the figure for

England.

Table 5.24 Percentage of working age population with no qualifications

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2005 2006 2007

England (%) 16.5 16.4 16.2 15.4 14.8 14.1 13.6 12.9


18.0 18.3 18.7 17.3 16.0 15.8 15.3 14.5


Training and Skills for Offshore Wind Industry

5.7.18 In relation to skills and training relevant to the Triton Knoll project and the predicted

skill shortage in the offshore wind sector, the renewable energy centre at the Grimsby

Institute which is scheduled to open in September 2011 will become the first of its

kind in the UK to provide training for offshore wind engineers. It will not only offer full

and part-time renewable energy engineering courses, but also apprenticeships based

on the production and maintenance of offshore wind farms with national qualifications

19 NVQ 4 equivalent and above: e.g. HND, Degree and Higher Degree level qualifications or equivalent


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 86

ranging from Level 1 to HNC on offer. Tailor-made courses will be developed for

school leavers, apprentices and existing wind power company employees20

.

5.7.19 The University of Lincolnshire (UoL) is working with NLC to develop an academic /

practical course on the skills required by the offshore wind industry and in related

technical studies. This is designed to exploit the potential offshore opportunities

through the Humber Gateway. It is likely to be located at the UoL campus in the first

instance but the aim of NLC is to have an outreach capability local to the NLC area.

5.7.20 The Centre for Assessment of Technical Competence (CATCH) in Stallingborough21

currently provides skills training and skills upgrading for those involved in process

industries, engineering and for offshore industry activities, and the centre is currently

proposing to double the numbers of apprenticeships on offer.

5.7.21 The University of Hull’s Centre for Adaptive Science and Sustainability (CASS) is

gearing up to provide both academic and specialist environmental skills to the

offshore industry, having targeted the industry as a priority market for their services.

5.7.22 There are further proposals for the creation of a North Lincolnshire Knowledge

Campus22

bringing together educational providers and colleges in Scunthorpe. This

proposal is likely to take some time to come to fruition but its ultimate development

would further strengthen the area’s capabilities in providing for the offshore wind

industry’s skills requirements.

5.7.23 The City & Guilds Wind Turbine Service Technician Apprenticeship23

launched in

November 2010 working with industry partners including Siemens, Repower, Weir

Group and RenewablesUK, has been rolled out to date in both Scotland via Carnegie

College in Fife and by Siemens in the company’s Newcastle training centre.

However, this initiative offers the potential for roll out across the UK including within

the study area via local partners, colleges, and training providers.

20 Source: http://www.thisisgrimsby.co.uk/news/Energy-centre-s-wind-sails-institute/article-3277221-

detail/article.html (1 March 2011) 21

http://www.catch-uk.org/contact.html

22http://www.planning.northlincs.gov.uk/PlanningReports/TheScunthorpeFramework/section1/C

reatingaKnowledgeCampuspages30-31.pdf

23 http://www.cityandguilds.com/62851.html


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 87

5.8 Summary of Employment Baseline

Employment Infrastructure

5.8.1 The employment infrastructure of the study area is focused on the ports of national

significance on the major trading estuary of the River Humber. The port partnership

of Grimsby and Immingham is the busiest port in the UK in terms of tonnage, and the

Humber ports, as a whole, are nationally important.

5.8.2 This area has been identified for significant future investment. The investment plans

of the port operator ABP and Siemens at the Port of Hull, and the proposed Able

Killingholme Marine Energy Park, together are predicted to create over 5000 jobs,

with an associated boost to the UK supply chain in the region.

Population and Labour Market

5.8.3 The estimated population of North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire accounts

for about 6% of the population of the wider Yorkshire and The Humber area. The

population of East Lindsey accounts for 3.1% of the population of the wider East

Midlands area. All three administrative areas have a higher proportion of older people

than the national average. The population projections indicated that these areas will

experience increases in their populations by 2017, predominantly with increases in

their ageing populations.

5.8.4 Economic activity rates (amongst the working age population) and employment rates

are higher than average in North and North East Lincolnshire, with unskilled

occupations accounting for a significantly higher proportion of the local workforce

when compared to the average in Great Britain. The occupational profile of North and

North East Lincolnshire suggests that the former has more workers in highly skilled

categories and the latter more workers in skilled trade occupations.

5.8.5 The economic activity and employment rates in East Lindsey are significantly lower,

suggesting that there may be limited job opportunities in certain areas of East

Lindsey. The profile of occupations in East Lindsey indicates that there is an average

number of unskilled workers, a significantly higher proportion of skilled workers, and a

lack of highly skilled workers.

5.8.6 Significantly lower levels of the population across the study area have qualifications

higher than NVQ2 compared to the national average. North East Lincolnshire in

particular is performing poorly, with a higher proportion of the population with no

qualifications. There is a skills deficit across the whole study area.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 88

5.8.7 Unemployment (amongst economically active population) has been consistently

higher than the Great Britain average over the past ten years. Unemployment has

traditionally fluctuated between the winter and summer months, highlighting the

importance of the tourism industry in the area. The gross weekly earnings in the study

area are significantly lower than average national earnings.

5.8.8 The overall Index of Multiple Deprivation for the study area indicates that the

administrative areas of North and North East Lincolnshire are relatively deprived, with

some pockets of severe deprivation. This is especially true in North East Lincolnshire,

with high levels of deprivation around Immingham and Grimsby. East Lindsey as a

whole has low levels of deprivation, with some pockets of severe deprivation,

especially around Skegness and Mablethorpe.

Employment and Business by sector

5.8.9 Sectors that are important in the study area are public administration, education and

health, manufacturing, retail and agriculture. The percentage employed in

manufacturing is higher than the national average and there is a significant retail

presence in the study area. The hotels and restaurants sector is strong in East

Lindsey, attributed to the tourism destinations including Skegness. Likewise, the

agricultural sector employs five times the national average, which reflects the rural

nature of East Lindsey.

5.8.10 North East Lincolnshire and East Lindsey have particularly low job densities,

indicating that the supply of employees exceeds demand and often residents have to

work in other areas or be unemployed or economically inactive.

Labour Market Catchment

5.8.11 The labour market catchments, in terms of 30-minute, 45-minute and 90-minute drive

times, of the key ports in the Humber area (Hull, Killingholme and Grimsby) have

been studied, to understand the potential impacts of the TKOWF activities.

5.8.12 This study shows that the economic activity in the labour market catchment for all

these ports is below national average, indicating a potential labour reserve. A higher

proportion of people within the drive time areas are employed in manufacturing, and

in terms of occupation, the local area has a higher proportion of workers employed in

manual occupations than the national average.

Productivity and Gross-Value Added (GVA)

5.8.13 North and North East Lincolnshire have an average GVA per capita and per worker

higher than the regional level. This reflects the industrialised nature of the local

economy. Productivity is, however, lower than the national average.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 89

5.8.14 GVA per capita in East Lindsey is considerably lower than in neighbouring North and

North East Lincolnshire despite the regional GVA in East Midlands being slightly

higher than that in Yorkshire and The Humber. Similarly, productivity is very low.

Education and Training

5.8.15 In relation to adult skills, 29.5% of the working population of East Lindsey in 2009 was

unskilled, marginally above the average for the East Midlands region. The literacy,

numeracy and higher skills levels of East Lindsey are significantly under-represented

compared to the national average. Alongside the skills shortages, there is generally

poor access to education and training.

5.8.16 In Yorkshire, in 2007, the percentage of 19 year olds with a Level 3 qualification and

the percentage of working age population with a NVQ Level 2+ qualification were

both lower than the national average, as was the percentage of the working age

population with no qualifications.

5.8.17 A renewable energy centre at the Grimsby Institute is scheduled to open in

September 2011. It will provide training for offshore wind engineers, offering full and

part-time renewable energy engineering courses, and apprenticeships based on the

production and maintenance of offshore wind farms. Other educational initiatives

designed to take account of offshore opportunities are being developed at the

Universities of Lincolnshire and Hull, at the Centre for Assessment of Technical

Competence (CATCH) in Stallingborough and at the North Lincolnshire Knowledge

Campus.

5.9 Housing and social infrastructure

5.9.1 The Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) identifies an overall housing requirement for

North Lincolnshire between 2004 and 2026 of 15,700 new dwellings, which is phased

into two periods. Between 2004 and 2008, North Lincolnshire was expected to

provide 2,200 new dwellings (a rate of 550 dwellings per year). In the second period

(2008-2026), the area is expected to provide 13,500 new dwellings at a rate of 750

dwellings per year. Whilst invited by the Secretary of State to reconsider these

targets following the intention to abolish the RSS, a Housing Topic Paper from North

Lincolnshire Council published in October 2010 outlined the rationale for sticking to

these targets. Part of this justification was the fact that recent completion rates

supported this level of dwellings.

5.9.2 North Lincolnshire’s Housing Strategy is therefore geared up to cope with expansion.

The North Lincolnshire Draft Core Strategy states that:


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 90

’North Lincolnshire has a range of housing spread across its towns and villages. As a

result of its attractive environment, good services and buoyant economy, it has

become a desirable place for many people to live, therefore residential development

has increased considerably in recent years. The area has approximately 70,000

dwellings, however due to expected population growth and economic developments

an additional 12,063 new dwellings will be required between 2010 and 2026. ’

5.9.3 The Lincolnshire Lakes project is identified within the Scunthorpe Strategic

Development Framework (SDF) as a key component in the transformation of

Scunthorpe. The project aim to create a major new sustainable waterside setting and

neighbourhood for Scunthorpe.

5.9.4 The Strategic Housing Market Assessment for North Lincolnshire published in

November 2008 identified a total annual need for housing of 1,170 per annum, of

which 373 would be affordable.

5.9.5 The Housing Topic Paper has also factored in the demand likely to emerge from the

proposed Able Killingholme Marine Energy Park, where the majority of local jobs

associated with the turbine manufacture for Triton Knoll are likely to arise.

5.9.6 North East Lincolnshire Annual Monitoring Report 2009/2010 shows housing

completions reached 400 dwellings per annum in 2007-2008 however reduced to 77

in 2008-2009 hit by recession. The targets until 2016 show gradual increase to 500

dwellings per annum. The housing policy takes into account the MEP proposal at

Killingholme. Five year supply of housing land identified in the North East Lincolnshire

Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment 2010 will provide c.a. 600 homes

surplus capacity.

5.9.7 The East Lindsey Core Strategy Issues and Options paper (2007) suggests it will

retain the RSS target of 650 homes per annum, acknowledging that there is an

increased need for affordable housing in the district.

5.10 Recreational and Tourist Resources

East Midlands Region and East Lindsey District

5.10.1 Tourism strategy for the region is set out in the following documents, which provide

strategic priorities up to 2010 and 201124

:

24 http://www.eastmidlandstourism.com


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 91

• East Midlands Tourism Strategy which outlines opportunities for developing

tourism in the region up to 2010.

• East Midlands Strategic Plan 2008 - 2011, developed in consultation with

regional tourism stakeholders with the strategic aim to increase the impact of

the region’s visitor economy. Key aims include growing and improving the

region’s skills base, increasing investment and delivering marketing

campaigns that demonstrate a proven return on investment.

5.10.2 Following a move away from regional-led tourism activity, information collated to

inform a new regional tourism strategy has been included in ‘A Handbook for Tourism

Development’ published by East Midlands Tourism in October 2010. The main

recommendations set out in the Handbook are:

• Review Destination Management Partnership (DMP) Structures due to their

dependence on emda funding.

• Prioritise activity following the reduction in public sector funding and private

sector investment – based on future wealth creation, jobs growth and

recognition that tourism is part of the wider Visitor Economy.

• Make connections – work across county boundaries, across Local Authority

departments and across the Visitor Economy to include Culture, Sport and

Heritage.

• Set up tourism forums that allow delivery bodies and stakeholders to meet

regularly to debate strategic challenges and priorities.

5.10.3 Tourism is a major industry in the East Midlands. A large proportion of the region’s

tourism is generated by the coastal resorts of Lincolnshire, with Skegness and

Ingoldmells within the top five holiday resorts of the UK (East Midlands Tourism

Strategy 2003-2010). Visitors spend £5.6 billion annually, with day visitors to the

coast highest between June and September, peaking in July and August (EDMA,

2006). These visitors support almost 100,000 jobs (East Midlands Tourism Strategic

Plan 2008-2011), many of which are seasonal and are of a casual nature.

5.10.4 The Lincolnshire coast offers two types of tourism and recreation experiences “The

Fun Coast” and “The Rural Coast” (Lincolnshire Tourism Ltd., 2007). In East Lindsey

the “The Fun Coast” includes the seaside resorts of Skegness, Chapel St Leonards,

Ingoldmells and Mablethorpe, which offer entertainment based tourism and

recreational facilities. There are adventure parks at Mablethorpe, Ingoldmells and

Chapel St Leonards and around Skegness visitor attractions include Butlins, golf

courses, piers, a seal sanctuary and safari park. Beach activities include kite-surfing


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 92

and windsurfing at Skegness and kite-buggying at Mablethorpe, as well as swimming

from the many Blue Flag beaches25

.

5.10.5 “The Rural Coast” is marketed towards people interested in the environment, wildlife

and tranquil activities, such as bird watching, nature reserves and walking. Away from

the seaside resorts the natural coastline comprises a rich variety of habitats and

provides a range of visitor attractions including:

• Gibraltar Point National Nature Reserve south of Skegness comprising

around 430 hectares of sandy and muddy seashores, sand-dunes,

saltmarshes and freshwater habitats managed by the Lincolnshire Wildlife

Trust. Visitor facilities include an observation platform, public hides, a

network of paths and a visitor centre from which guided walks, children's

activities, day and residential training courses are organised. Educational

and adult groups can stay at the Wash Study Centre which offers

accommodation for up to 36 people, together with laboratory, classroom and

library facilities.

• Chapel Pit Nature Reserve north of Chapel St Leonards comprising 3.2

hectares of marsh and wetland.

• Huttoff Bank Pit Nature Reserve to the south of Sandilands comprising 4

hectares of marsh and wetland is the largest of the Sea Bank Clay Pits,

which provided clay for sea bank repairs after the 1953 floods.

• Sandilands Pit Nature Reserve to the south of Sandilands comprising 1.5

hectares of marsh and wetland.

• Saltfleetby - Theddlethorpe Dunes National Nature Reserve occupies 556

hectares along the coast between Mablethorpe North End in the south and

Saltfleet Haven in the north managed by Natural England. Visitor facilities

include parking places, an easy access trail with display boards and a free

interpretative leaflet.

• Donna-Nook National Nature Reserve near North Somercotes, known for its

grey seal breeding colony which attracts visitors from across the UK when

the seals give birth to over 1300 pups near the sand dunes every November

and December. Facilities comprise a viewing area at the foot of the sand

dunes and a small car park.

5.10.6 There are a network of public rights of way (PRoW) within “The Rural Coast” with

some running close to the following the coastal dunes such as the bridleway between

Ingoldmells and Chapel St Leonards, the public footpath between Saltfleet and

25 Information from the ‘Visit Lincolnshire’ website


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 93

Theddlethorpe St Helen and the public footpath north from Donna Nook to Horseshoe

Point. There are no national trails or promoted recreational routes.

5.10.7 The wide, sandy beaches outside the main resorts are also popular with tourists for

swimming, walking and activities such as sea/beach fishing.

5.10.8 Inland from the coast heritage visitor attractions include the National Trust property

and registered gardens of Gunby Hall near Spilsby, Bolingbroke Castle to the west of

Spilsby

5.10.9 The chalk hills of the Lincolnshire Wolds AONB, designated in 1973, run along the

western edge of the study area between the Humber and the Wash. The AONB

covers an area of 558 sq.kms and is sparsely settled with no large towns but many

small villages. Its rural economy is based on arable farming with some mineral

extraction. It is not a well-known tourist area although the seaside resorts of

Mablethorpe and Skegness are only a short distance away. Recreation within the

AONB includes traditional country pursuits such as walking, cycling and horse

riding26

.

5.10.10 Up to 35 square kilometres of coastal hinterland has been earmarked between

Sandilands and Chapel St. Leonards for the Lincolnshire Coastal Country Park,

covering approximately eight kilometres of coastline. Lincolnshire County Council's

Sustainable Communities Department and partners hope to develop the park over the

next 5 to 10 years with potential facilities including a visitor or heritage centre,

networked observatories, interpretation points and improved parking and recreational

facilities.

Yorkshire & the Humber, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire

Councils

5.10.11 Tourism strategy and policy for the region is set out in the following document:

• Yorkshire & Humber Visitor Economy Strategy 2008-2013 which identifies the

priorities for growth of the visitor economy by 5% under the following strategic

objectives:

o To provide strategic direction for growth of the visitor economy

behind which the tourism sector can align and supporting this a co-

ordinated approach to planning.

o To improve regional understanding of the visitor economy and

develop a better evidence base.

26 http://www.naturalengland.org.uk/ourwork/conservation/designatedareas/aonb/lincolnshirewolds.aspx


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 94

o To develop the region’s tourism offer of the future based on identified

strengths and opportunities.

o To ensure that the development of great places in our region

maximises the potential for growth of the visitor economy.

o To raise the quality of the tourism offer in the region.

o To instil an ambitious, enterprising learning culture in the tourism

sector where customer service is a top priority.

o To promote a positive image of the region in a contemporary way that

inspires visitors to experience Yorkshire.

5.10.12 The Humber Estuary economy relies heavily on tourism. Visitor spending in Yorkshire

and the Humber was £6.1 billion in 2006, constituting 8.5% of the total regional

output. Within the region 243,500 people are employed in visitor related industries in

more than 23,000 businesses (Yorkshire Forward, Yorkshire & Humber Visitor

Economy Strategy 2008-2013).

5.10.13 There are relatively few seaside resorts in the region. Cleethorpes, a former fishing

village located on the north-east coast of Lincolnshire, is a major visitor destination for

people from South Yorkshire and the East Midlands. It is a popular seaside resort

with long sandy beaches, a promenade and numerous visitor facilities, including the

Humber Estuary Discovery Centre, attracting up to a million visitors per year 27

.

5.10.14 North of Cleethorpes and adjoining Grimsby, the southern bank of the Humber is

characterised by industrial development including Immingham Dock, power stations

and refineries and terminals at Killingholme.

5.10.15 From Killingholme, a public footpath follows the Humber north and then west past

New Holland to Barton-upon-Humber, where flooded clay pits provide a range of

recreational facilities including Pasture Wharf Nature Reserve, a sailing club and

Water’s Edge Country Park and visitor centre.

5.10.16 Inland at Barton-upon-Humber and west of Immingham heritage visitor attractions

include St Peter’s Church, Barton-upon-Humber and Thornton Abbey and

Gatehouse, both owned by English Heritage.

5.10.17 North of the Humber, Withernsea is a traditional holiday resort, featuring a

promenade, lighthouse towers, Blue Flag beach and visitor attractions including

amusement arcades, bowling alleys and children’s adventure playgrounds. South of

Withernsea at the northern end of the Spurn Peninsula is the Spurn Bird Observatory

27 http://www.cleethorpesuk.com


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 95

and running south along the narrow spit of land to Spurn Head is the Spurn National

Nature Reserve. Accommodation is available on request for naturalists wishing to

stay at the Observatory, with further visitor facilities (parking, accommodation,

caravan sites, pubs/restaurants/cafes) available at Kinsea immediately to the north.

A PRoW (part footpath, part bridleway) runs south from the Observatory to the car

park at Spurn Head.

5.10.18 North of Kinsea visitor facilities including accommodation and caravan sites are

available in the coastal settlements of Easington, Holmpton, Withernsea and

Aldbrough. There are also PRoW near the coast, although the network is less

extensive than in Lincolnshire.

5.10.19 To the north of the Humber public footpaths run along lengths of the riverbank

at Skeffing Clays, Cherry Cobb Sands Bank and at Paull Holme Sands.

5.10.20 South of the village of Paull on the northern bank of the Humber is Fort Paull, a

Napoleonic fortress which is now a visitor attraction open between March and

October. The Fort exhibits “the World's only surviving Blackburn Beverley Aircraft”

and holds regular events and includes a range of educational and visitor facilities and

amenities28

.

Round 2 Greater Wash Strategic Area

5.10.21 The coastline of Lincolnshire within the Greater Wash Strategic Area (GWSA)

provides a range of marine recreation opportunities. Yachting and recreational sailing

are popular marine recreation activities along the coast of East Lincolnshire and there

is a Royal Yachting Association (RYA) sailing route which crosses the GWSA from

north-west to south-east. The offshore elements of the Triton Knoll Wind Farm are

located within a racing area, and a cruising route of medium recreational use passes

through the footprint of the development. A number of other existing wind farm sites

are located in one or other of these RYA designations.

5.10.22 The RYA represents users of cruising and racing sailboats and powerboats, sailing

dinghies and day boats, windsurfers and personal watercraft, and the Cruising

Association (CA) representing cruising yachtsmen. Both organisations assessed the

interest of their members in the GWSA in the context of offshore wind farm

development and reported the findings in their joint 2004 publication ‘Sharing the

Wind – Recreational Boating in the Offshore Wind Farm Strategic Areas’. In relation

to the GWSA the study reported:

28 http://www.fortpaull.com


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 96

“The Greater Wash Strategic Wind Farm area is a difficult and somewhat unfriendly

area for recreational sailors without any all-weather all-tide safe harbour. The coastal

seas can be dangerous to small craft in strong on-shore weather although the

offshore passage routes are relatively safe and without physical dangers. There is

limited local sailing activity, largely by small boats which can take the ground plus a

few very large traditional sailing craft [(see Figure 3) below]. Commercial traffic

includes some local coasters to the Wash ports and specialised vessels in connection

with oil and gas platform servicing plus larger vessels entering or leaving the Humber

from well offshore. Yachts have to take particular care to avoid this traffic.”

Figure 5.29 Recreational boating in the Greater Wash Strategic Area

Source: Figure 3 from ‘Sharing the Wind – Recreational Boating in the Offshore Wind Farm Strategic Areas’

5.10.23 Regarding recreational sailing the study identifies the following activities in the

GWSA:

• Canoeing, sail-boarding and personal water-craft of a very limited local nature

mainly in the Humber.

• Dinghy sailing of a limited local nature mainly in the Humber but also from the

smaller ports of North Norfolk and the Wash.

• Cruiser day-sailing in suitable weather only.

• Cruiser passage-making through the area both inshore and offshore.

5.10.24 It also states that there are 30 clubs, 12 marinas and 38 teaching centres supporting

sailing activity and there are an estimated 5,600 moorings. The study infers from the

RYA national database that there are over 1,287 total berths within marinas in the

GWSA, with membership of clubs in the regions of Yorkshire and Humberside, East


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 97

Midlands and East of England being over 38,000. However no reliable estimates can

be produced for the number of vessels or crew involved. According to CA records,

approximately 4% of national UK members are based within 40 miles of the area.

5.10.25 The study provides notes on recreational craft routes which may involve passage

through or near proposed wind farms or through the GWSA, as listed below.

Routes through the Greater Wash Strategic Wind Farm Area

5.10.26 It is noted that there is no totally safe harbour within the area, with the nearest all-

weather, all-tide haven to the south being Harwich with all harbours to the north being

difficult to access in the commonly occurring conditions and the Humber entrance not

always available. Offshore sand banks are not a problem for navigation through lack

of depth over them but may produce heavily breaking seas in bad weather and are

best avoided. The Humber entrance has recommended yacht tracks to avoid conflict

with commercial shipping.

5.10.27 Three yachting routes pass through the area:

• The long distance offshore route between Flamborough Head and Winterton

Ness.

• The general offshore route running 15-20 miles offshore.

• The general inshore route running approximately 10 miles off the coast,

avoiding shallow areas and MoD firing ranges.

Routes terminating within the Greater Wash Strategic Wind Farm Area

5.10.28 The only significant route terminating in this area is to the Humber, with vessels

generally joining the recommended yacht track just south of the Humber main

entrance channel.

Routes entirely within the Greater Wash Strategic Wind Farm Area

5.10.29 It is noted that recreational traffic between the 16 small facilities available in the area,

including in the Humber and Wash, is light and does not impinge upon allocated wind

farm development areas.

Marinas, Harbours and Anchorages within the GWSA

5.10.30 Within the GWSA reliable anchorages for recreational craft are only listed as being

behind Spurn Head or off Cleethorpes in the Humber during times of suitable weather

only. There are no all-weather anchorages although shelter is sometimes sought

behind the various banks both offshore and inshore. Wells Next-the-Sea is the largest

harbour in the area and used by locals and visiting yachts.


RPS EOR0562-R-02-01 98

Sailing Areas within the GWSA

5.10.31 It is reported that general sailing areas are to be found in the Wash and in the mouth

of the Humber area with light use along the coast line from Blakeney to Bridlington.

Racing Areas within the GWSA

5.10.32 Dinghy racing takes place from many of the small yachting bases within the GWSA

and whilst these are generally within the areas not allocated for wind farm

development some racing extends out further offshore into the area from the Humber.

5.10.33 The Royal Ocean Racing Club29

is the home of ocean racing in the UK. A race

schedule listing events throughout the year is listed on its website none of which are

within the socio-economic study area. The nearest event is the North Sea Race from

Harwich to Scheveningen in the Netherlands to the south of the study area.

Recreational Angling

5.10.34 Recreational angling takes places along the coastline within the study area. Sea

fishing takes place either from the beach, piers, jetties or at sea by boat. Local sea

angling clubs (SACs) in the study area include those at Aldbrough (Elm Tree SAC),

Hornsea (Hornsea SAC) and Hull (Hull Rock Anglers, Hull Works Sports and Reckitts

SAC).

29 http://www.rorc.org/

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