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GWIT R E N D S

Explaining and analyzing key digital trends by demographics & market

MOBILE TIPPING POINTAs smartphones remain in the ascendancy, the moment is approaching when people will spend more time online on their mobiles than on all other devices combined.

Q12 0 1 6

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That consumers are spending more and more time online on their smartphones is hardly

dramatic news; for some time now, we’ve all seen internet behaviors being transformed

as a growing number of activities migrate away from desktop and laptop PCs towards

mobiles.

Even so, look at GlobalWebIndex’s harmonized, 34-market trended data on how much

time people are devoting to various devices each day and there’s one particularly striking

landmark on the horizon: by 2019, the average global internet user will be spending more

time on their mobile device each day than on their PCs, laptops and tablets combined.

It’s this moment that we’re calling the Mobile Tipping Point – and it’s one which brings

profound implications for how and when brands will communicate with consumers.

SETTINGTHE SCENE

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Device OwnershipFor the first time, late 2015 saw smartphones (87%) posting near-equal ownership figures

to PC/laptops (88%). Considering the relatively short period of time for which smartphones

have been available, that they have already drawn equal to more traditional devices underlines

just how quickly the mobile internet has transformed online behaviors.

Question: Which of the following devices do you

personally own? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex Q4 2015 /// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64

Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Internet Landscape > Access Points > Device Ownership

Device Ownership% of internet users who own the following

e-Reader: a digital reading device, e.g. Amazon Kindle, Kobo, Nook etc

Smart TV: a television that can connect to the internet

Smart Wristband: a digital wristband which typically tracks your health and fitness levels. Popular examples include Nike Fuelband, Jawbone Up, Adidas miCoach

Smartphone: a smartphone allows you to connect to the internet and download apps, e.g. an iPhone, BlackBerry or Android phone such as the Samsung Galaxy S6

Smartwatch: a watch which allows you to connect to the

internet and use apps. Popular smartwatches include Pebble, Sony Smartwatch, Samsung Galaxy Gear and the Apple Watch

Tablet: e.g. an Apple iPad, Samsung Galaxy Tab, Microsoft Surface, Google Nexus tablet

TV streaming stick/device: a digital media device which streams web content to your TV set, e.g. Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV Stick, Google Chromecast, Roku Streaming Player

NOTE: RESPONDENTS SEE THE FOLLOWING DEFINITIONS/ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

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Broadly speaking, smartphone ownership rates by country tend to be higher in fast-

growth rather than more mature nations. Demographic patterns have a significant impact

here; in many fast-growth markets, internet penetration remains modest and online

populations are therefore more likely to be young, urban and comparatively affluent –

all of which favors higher smartphone ownership. In addition, mobiles have been more

fundamental to the development of the internet in fast-growth nations than they have in

more mature ones.

In contrast, developed markets typically have older online populations who retain a

stronger attachment to PCs and laptops (which have been widespread in these markets

for years). Even so, certain mature markets do boast high figures for smartphone ownership

– rates reach over 90% in South Korea, Spain and Singapore, for example. Moreover, there’s

no market where smartphones are failing to make a significant impact.

Meanwhile, close to half of internet users might have a tablet but their previous rates of

growth have stalled. Evidence suggests that the momentum behind tablets has waned as

they struggle to convince some users that they are must-have rather than just nice-to-have

devices. That tablet ownership is higher among 25-54s than among 16-24s is a clear sign

that the youngest demographics are still to become seriously enthused by these devices

(in contrast to mobiles, where younger demographics continue to post the strongest usage

figures). Clearly, it’s smartphones which remain the one to watch.

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DEVICE IMPORTANCE

Further evidence for the rise of mobile comes from a new addition

to our survey, asking respondents which device they believe is

most important to them for getting online.

Looking at the total internet population, laptops have a slim lead

over smartphones for this metric (34% vs 32%). However, if we

turn our attention to 16-24s, it’s clear that smartphones are by

far the most important device for this key age group. In contrast,

only 1 in 10 55-64s view smartphones in the same way.

By region, we once again see the clear importance of smartphones

to digital consumers in APAC and MENA, whereas laptops score

their highest figures in North America and Europe. So too is the

status of tablets as non-essential devices re-confirmed here.

Only 4% of online adults view tablets as their most important

device, rising to just 11% among tablet owners themselves. In

fact, tablets owners are most likely to identify smartphones as

their most important device.

% of internet users say the following is their most important internet device

Question: Which would you say is the most important device you use to access the

internet, whether at home or elsewhere? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex Q4 2015 /// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64

Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Internet Landscape > Access Points > Device Importance

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Second-ScreeningMobiles continue to break new ground when we turn our attention

to second-screening trends – having opened up a 16-point lead

over laptops.

Question: Which of the following devices have you

used while watching TV? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex

2012-2015 (averages across all waves of research

conducted in each year)/// Base: Internet Users Aged

16-64

Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Second-Screen Consumption > Second-Screen Devices

2nd Screening, by Device% who have recently second-screened via the following

Across GWI’s 34 countries, it’s now just 9 of them where laptops

remain in pole position (retaining particularly strong leads in

places such as Japan, Poland and Russia). However, with mobiles

ahead in 25 markets – with especially commanding positions in

many APAC and LatAm countries – it’s somewhat inevitable that

mobiles will soon take the lead in all places.

As might be expected, age has a strong impact here – 16-24s

lead the figures for mobiles and are almost 3 times as likely to be

second-screening via this device as 55-64s.

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TIME SPENT ONLINEWith mobiles experiencing strong rises when it comes to

ownership, to dual-screening and to perceived device importance,

it’s hardly a surprise that they’re capturing a bigger portion of

time spent online. However, it’s the speed of the increase which

is particularly arresting.

At a global level, mobiles jumped from 1.24 hours in 2012 to

break the 2-hour-per-day mark in 2015. Simultaneously, we

saw a steady decline in the amount time per day spent on PCs/

laptops. Although these changes for PCs/laptops are not drastic

– and although mobiles still have some distance to go before they

challenge the dominance of computers – the direction of travel

here is abundantly clear.

Rather than taking people away from PCs per se, though, the

bigger story here is that mobiles are encouraging people to go

online for an even longer period each day, including at times

and in locations that previously might not have been feasible

or desirable. The mobile internet isn’t replacing the PC/laptop

internet directly; rather, it’s increasing the total amount of time

we spend online.

Time Spent Online

Question: Roughly how many hours do you spend

on the following on a typical day? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex 2012-2015 (averages across all

waves of research conducted in each year) /// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64

Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Cross Media Consumption > Time Spent…

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Online Time by Age & Region

Currently, the youngest consumers in our research – the 16-24s – are already spending

an average of around 3.25 hours per day online on a mobile, representing an increase

from just under 2 hours back in 2012. Look instead at the oldest group of consumers within

our study – the 55-64s – and the picture is quite different; this group spends just 0.67

hours per day online on their mobiles. As a result, mobiles account for by far the biggest

proportion of total online time among the youngest age group; 44% is already via a mobile

and, as we explore below, 2016 will be the year that mobiles reach parity with and then

overtake computers for this age group.

Time Spent Online by Age

Question: Roughly how many hours do you spend

on the following on a typical day? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex 2012-2015 (averages across all

waves of research conducted in each year) /// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64

Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Cross Media Consumption > Time Spent…

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Among 55-64s, mobiles grab just 16% of time, meaning the

transition to mobile-first consumption will take much, much

longer. In fact, the oldest group is the only one where we’re not

seeing declines in time spent on PCs, laptops and tablets. Their

much-documented love of tablets is one of the reasons behind

this, but it does illustrate just how closely mobile consumption –

and therefore the Mobile Tipping Point – is linked to demographics.

Indeed, age-based patterns for mobiles become particularly stark

when we recognize that 16-24s spend 1.2x as much time as 55-

64s on PCs/laptops/tablets each day but devote 5x as much

time to mobile.

Differences are similarly strong at a regional level. In Latin

America, for example, the mobile web now accounts for over

3.5 hours per day, with the figure close to reaching a similar

mark in the Middle East. In contrast, daily time in North America

(1.84 hours) and Europe (1.57) lags behind. As before, this is

a combination of these two regions having older and more

nationally representative internet populations as well as a

stronger connection to PCs and laptops.

Time Spent Online by Region

Question: Roughly how many hours

do you spend on the following on a

typical day? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex

2012-2015 (averages across all waves of

research conducted in each year) /// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64

Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Cross Media Consumption > Time Spent…

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THE MOBILE TIPPING POINT

If current patterns continue without interruption, 2019

is forecast to be the year when mobiles will capture

more time than all other devices combined. The

importance of this really can’t be overstated: before

the end of the current decade, the “typical” internet

user across all of our 34 markets will be devoting more

online time to smartphones than all other devices/

screens.

Clearly, though, age will have a strong impact over this.

Look just at 16-24s and the Mobile Tipping Point will

be reached in 2016 (with 16-34s following closely

behind in 2017).

% of daily online time devoted to mobiles vs other devices

Question: Roughly how many hours do you spend

on the following on a typical day? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex Forecasts based on 2012-2015 data

/// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64

Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Cross Media Consumption > Time Spent…

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There’s similar variation at a country level, with the young populations of fast-growth

markets at the very forefront of the transition to mobile-first consumption. Leading the

pack are countries in the Middle East and Latin America. Across GWI’s 34 markets, 16-24

year-olds in places such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Mexico reached the Mobile Tipping

Point back in 2014 or early 2015. Now, the total online populations of these three markets

are set to follow suit, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE forecast to be the very first to make

the transition for their total internet populations in 2016.

Mobile Tipping Point, by CountryYear when people start spending more time online via mobiles than via all other devices combined

Question: Roughly how many hours do you spend

on the following on a typical day? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex Forecasts based on 2012-2015 data

/// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64

Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Cross Media Consumption > Time Spent…

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Elsewhere, 2020 is set to be a particularly key year. By this point, all three of the countries

with the largest internet populations in the world – the US, China and India – will have

moved past the Mobile Tipping Point. Given that these three together represent more than

half of the world’s internet users, the fact that mobiles are set to grab the majority of their

online time by the end of the decade is a hugely significant milestone. As is the fact that,

by 2020, many of the world’s top 10 biggest advertising markets will have made this

transition.

Towards the end of GWI’s 34 markets are some perhaps rather surprising stragglers,

including what most of us would think of as rather advanced tech markets like the UK,

Singapore, Germany and Sweden. Demographics are once again key here, though. If we

looked just at younger consumers in these markets, the transition will take place long

before 2020. In contrast, examine behaviors among the large numbers of older internet

users within their ageing populations and it’s clear that they remain much more attached

to traditional devices. They’re still embracing mobiles, but time spent on PCs, laptops and

tablets is not decreasing significantly and this causes an obvious delay to when they’ll

reach the Mobile Tipping Point. But that we’ll still see them reaching the Mobile Tipping

Point within the next 5 years in spite of this is yet another sign of just how much mobiles

are changing the game.

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• PCs/laptops will not be abandoned and will retain their importance for a long time to come. Nevertheless, as

mobiles continue to grab a larger share of the time that people spend online, the importance of mobile-optimized

content and strategies will become more and more pressing. Multi-device ownership and access means you

need to expect consumers to be engaging with you via any device and at any time, but the role of mobile within

this mix is bound to grow.

• Equally inevitable is that we’ll see the emergence of a bigger and bigger mobile-first audience – those individuals

who, despite having access to other devices, choose smartphones as their primary internet device. Without a fully

formed mobile strategy, that means you’re completely shutting the door to this ever-growing segment.

• Currently, mobile-first groups are usually associated almost exclusively with fast-growth markets – places

where the importance of the closely-related mobile-only segment has long been recognized. Nevertheless, look

at GWI’s data and it’s clear that mobile-first audiences already exist in all 34 countries. Markets like Saudi Arabia

and the UAE might top the list, but some mature markets feature here too – with small but important groups in

places like Sweden, Hong Kong, the US and UK already eschewing other devices in favor of mobile. Clearly, this is

a trend which needs to be on the radar of marketers working in all territories.

• To date, certain internet behaviors have made a much stronger transition to smartphones than others and,

among some demographics, it’s already legitimate to count things like social networking, video and music-

streaming as mobile-first activities. That means we’re already in the position to talk about the presence of truly

global mobile publishers – and hence, the opportunity to strike global deals.

IMPLICATIONS & FUTURE OUTLOOK

For further detail on this subject, please download the following:

GWI Device | Flagship Report

Digital vs Traditional Media Consumption | Insight Report

Device Preferences | Insight Report

Multi-Device Owners | Trend Report

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Jason ManderDirector, Research & Insight

E jason@globalwebindex.net@thejasonmander