Trends in Agricultural Land & Lease Values Trends in Agricultural... · 2019. 4. 25. · Disclaimer...
42
Trends® in Agricultural Land & Lease Values California and Nevada Presented by Outlook Agribusiness Conference April 25, 2019 Sacramento, California
Transcript of Trends in Agricultural Land & Lease Values Trends in Agricultural... · 2019. 4. 25. · Disclaimer...
Trends® in Agricultural Land& Lease ValuesCalifornia and Nevada
Presented by
Outlook Agribusiness ConferenceApril 25, 2019
Sacramento, California
DisclaimerThe land value and lease data presented today and in the Trends® publication represents a general range of sales and rental data for each stated market. Specific sales or leases may be present in the market which are higher or lower that the ranges noted. Due to many factors, one should not assume that all of the farms or ranches within a certain market area or crop will fall within the ranges shown.
We strongly recommend that you obtain the assistance of a trained professional in your area to determine the value or appropriate rental level for a specific property.
Janie Gatzman, ARA and Tiffany Holmes, ARACo-Chairs of the Land Value Survey Committee
Special Thanks toSuzie Roget and Liz McAfee
Members of the 2019 Trends® Coordinating Team
Regional Chairs:
Kyle Dalrymple Hal Forcey, ARAKary Teagle, ARA Jaime Bigham, ARAKristin Massetti, ARA Mike Ming, ARA, FRICSAlison Renz Clark, ARA Curtis A. Buono, ARA, MAI, AI-GRSMichael Merkley, ARA David Bell, ARA
and All Regional Committee Members
Special Thanks toJanie Gatzman, ARA and Tiffany Holmes, ARACo-Chairs of the Land Value Survey Committee
Suzie Roget and Liz McAfeeMembers of the 2019 Trends® Coordinating Team
Regional Chairs:
Kyle Dalrymple Hal Forcey, ARAKary Teagle, ARA Jaime Bigham, ARAKristin Massetti, ARA Mike Ming, ARA, FRICSAlison Renz Clark, ARA Curtis A. Buono, ARA, MAI, AI-GRSMichael Merkley, ARA David Bell, ARA
and All Regional Committee Members
AND
without whom this publication would not be possible
Please check out ther ads and patronize the businesses of our sponsors!
All of our
RegionsRegion One: Sacramento Valley
Region Two: North Coast
Region Three: North SJ Valley
Region Four: Central SJ Valley
Region Five: Southern SJ Valley
Region Six: Central Coast
Region Seven: Southern California
Region Eight: Mountains
Region Nine: Nevada
Nut Crops
AlmondsWalnuts
Pistachios
Almond Orchard Values
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
AlmondsHigh Price Paid per acre
Sac Valley
North SJ Valley
Central SJ Valley
South SJ Valley
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
N San Joaquin Valley Values per Acre
Almond Orchard ValuesEast/State Districts
Federal/Well
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Sacramento Valley Values per Acre
Mean increased 14% from 2015-18
Mean increased 4% from 2016-18,Flat from 2017-18
Mean decreased 13% from 2015-18
Mean decreased 9% from 2016,3% from 2017
Almond Orchard Values
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Central SJ Valley Values per Acre
East side
West side
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
S SJ Valley Values per Acre
Mean decreased 15% from 2015-18,Flat from 2016-18
Mean decreased 25% from 2015-18,
9% from 2016,4% from 2017
Uptick in 2018 ismostly Tulare Co,
good water
Walnut Orchard Values
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
WalnutsHigh Price Paid per acre
Sac Valley
North SJ Valley
South SJ Valley
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
N SJ Valley Values per Acre
Walnut Orchard Values
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Sacramento Valley Values per Acre
Mean decreased 12% from 2015-18,
Mean decreased 11% from 2015-17,
But up 22% from 2017-18
**High sales were early in 2018; commodity price fall = orchard values softened in 2nd half, expect 2019 to be down
But up 6% from 2016,4% from 2017
Walnut Orchard Values
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
S SJ Valley Values per Acre
Mean decreased 25% from 2015-18,
But stable from 2017-18
Pistachio Orchard Values
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
PistachiosHigh Price Paid per acre
Central SJ Valley
South SJ Valley
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
South SJ Valley Values per Acre
Pistachio Orchard Values
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Central SJ Valley Values per Acre
Mean decreased 9% from 2015-18,
But stable from 2017-18
Mean decreased 17% from 2015-18,
But increased 11% from 2017-18
Winegrape Vineyards
North CoastCentral Coast
Southern CaliforniaCentral Valley
Winegrape Vineyard Values
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Wine GrapesHigh Price Paid per acre
Napa
Sonoma
SoCal
Monterey
SLO, SB
Lodi
Fresno
Premium = Stable
Winegrape Vineyard Values
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Napa Prime Values per Acre
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Napa Secondary Values per Acre
Premium = Stable, planted out:pressure on Secondary
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Sonoma Prime Values per Acre
Winegrape Vineyard Values
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Napa Outlying Values per Acre
Secondary
Planted out, expanding
Premium = Stable, pressure on Secondary
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Fresno Values per Acre
Winegrape Vineyard Values
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Lodi Values per Acre
Mean decreased 14% from 2017-18
Mean decreased 12% from 2016-18
* Premium = Stable, economy wine = decreasing
Good quality, Lodi-area contracted grapes at high end, few sales;Head trained, uncontracted grapes at low end, most sale volume
Winegrape Vineyard Values
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Monterey Values per Acre
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
SLO, SB Values per Acre
Premium = Stable, pressure on Secondary
Winegrape Vineyard Values
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
SoCal Values per Acre
Premium = Stable
Irrigated Crop Land
Central ValleyCentral Coast
Southern California
Central Valley Irrigated Crop Land Values
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Cropland (good water)High Price Paid per acreSac Valley
North SJ Valley
Central SJ Valley
South SJ Valley
Central Valley Irrigated Crop Land Values – Federal Water Districts
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Crop Land-Federal DistrictsHigh Price Paid per acre
North SJ Valley-Stanislaus
North SJ Valley-Merced
Central SJ Valley
South SJ Valley
Irrigated Land Values: Sacramento Valley
$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000$18,000$20,000$22,000$24,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
Yolo, S. Sutter, N. Sac. & Solano Irrigated Cropland
Class 1-2
SGMA Who? Oh, wait, I’ve heard of him…
Class 3-4
$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000$18,000$20,000$22,000$24,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
Feather River, Sutter Basin & Northwest CountiesIrrigated Cropland
Irrigated Land Values: North San Joaquin Valley
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
Cropland-North
Delta
Lodi, N County Districts, Well Water
SGMA? We’re busy planting…
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
Cropland-South
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
Cropland-Central
Irrigated Land Values: North San Joaquin Valley
EastsideDistricts
Westside-Well & Federal
Merced ID
Non-FederalWestside
Westside-Well & Federal
SGMA?? We’ll talk next year
Groundwater Ordinances
Non-Federal Westside
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
Fresno County Cropland East
District
Wells
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
Madera County Cropland
District
Wells
Irrigated Land Values: Central San Joaquin Valley
District:Mean 5% from 2015
Wells:Mean 41% from 2015
Oh, that SGMA
District:Mean 9% from 2015,Up 8% from 2017
Wells:Mean 37% from 2015
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
Tulare County Cropland
Irrigated Land Values: South San Joaquin Valley
Hello SGMA
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
Kings County Cropland
North
Central West
Irrigated Land Values: South San Joaquin Valley
White Areas? Here be Dragons…
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
Kern County Cropland
State Water
Southeast
NE & Central
Central Coast Irrigated Farmland Values
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Coastal CroplandHigh Price Paid per acreVentura
SLO-SB
Monterey
Santa Cruz
San Benito
Stable highs & increasing lows, except…
Irrigated Land Values: Southern California
Stability
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
1993
Coachella Valley Open Land
Irrigated Land Values: Southern California
Activity cooled slightly at top end, limited transactions at low end
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
$20,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
Palo Verde Valley Irrigation Field Crops/Produce
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
$20,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
Imperial Valley Irrigated Land
Good
Limited
Average
Stable, low cap rates
Soft FruitsPrunes
Peaches, Plums, Nectarines and Cherries
Soft Fruits
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
High Price Paid per acre
Sac Valley Prunes
N. SJ Valley Cherries
Cent. SJ Valley Stone Fruit
S. SJ Valley Table Grapes
S. SJ Valley Stone Fruit
Citrus
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
High Price PaidPer acre
Cent. SJ Valley Citrus
S. SJ Valley Citrus
SoCal Citrus
Dairy Facilities
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
High Price Paid per cowN SJ Valley
Cent SJ Valley
S SJ Valley
Mean decreased 42% to 59%
from 2008-18
Rangeland
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
$15,000
$17,500
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
High Price Paid per acreCoastal
Inland Coast
Central Valley, East
Central Valley, West
Intermountain
Nevada
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
Grazing Land (per acre)
Pasture/Meadow
Dry Grazing/Range$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
Northern NevadaCattle Operation (per AU)
Inside Operation
Range Operation
Desert Operation
Nevada:Northern Nevada Irrigated Cropland
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
$15,000
$17,500
$20,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
Lahomtan Valley
Lovelock, Carson, Mason & Smith Valleys, Orovada, Kings River, Silver State & Winnemucca all Stable
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
$15,000
$17,500
$20,000
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
Elko, Diamond Valley,Reese River
Trends® in Agricultural Land & Lease Values
California and NevadaPresented by
Thank You!
