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Trend Macrolytics, LLC

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer

Thomas Demas, Managing Director

Michael Warren, Energy Strategist

Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Sunday, May 2, 2021

The global scorecard

India + 392,488 India + 3,689

Brazil + 66,964 Brazil + 2,656

United States + 45,303 United States + 490

Turkey + 28,817 Poland + 422

France + 25,670 Russia + 385

Germany + 18,535 Turkey + 373

Colombia + 18,022 Ukraine + 358

Iran + 17,080 Iran + 332

Argentina + 16,502 Colombia + 272

Italy + 12,964 Mexico + 261

+ 642,345 + 9,238

World + 796,679 World + 12,345

Top ten 81% Top ten 75%

World

30.6 median population age

New cases New Deaths

The worst ten countries

200.409 bp of population infected

As of May 1

New confirmed cases

by continent

4.20 bp of population fatalities

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 don@trendmacro.com Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 tdemas@trendmacro.com

2

The US scorecard

New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital Hospital use ICU use

MI GA CA CA TX RI 91% MI 32%

OH LA TX NY CA MA 84% MD 22%

FL NV FL TX FL PA 82% ME 19%

TX CA NY FL NY CT 82% RI 18%

NY IL IL PA GA MO 82% MN 18%

IL TN PA NJ PA MD 82% CO 17%

NJ KY GA IL OH MI 81% PA 16%

PA WV OH GA IL GA 80% ID 15%

GA AR NJ OH KY MN 79% WA 14%

MD OH NC MI MI FL 78% WV 14%

70% 67%

72% 10%

Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most pop immunuity growth

United States

CT -13

Five most improved US states

NC -2,231 CA

CT

+110 bp

+98 bp

+87 bp

+85 bp

+84 bp-786

-1,789

TN

38.1 median population age

994.485 bp of population infected

17.706 bp of population fatalities

969,752 18,893

17,567,420 334,214

2,222,932

56%

32,392,274 576,722

54% 58%

+ 562

Top ten

TX

PA IN -27NC

-44

Top ten

+ 45,303

-1,811

60%

The ten worst US states

+ 322

+7

4600%

238,313

230,813

168,332

128,946

101,032

84,578

81,827

76,129

72,134

65,918

1,248,022

1,074,019

+ 17

+ 12

+ 51

+ 96

+ 3,708

+ 2,604

All states

52,309

+ 22

-618 OR

All states

Median

VA -12 FL -19

SD

Some states not reporting

UT

FL

CA

CT

NM -21

WA -25-17

-20

IA

FL

NY

MI

IL

PA

3,743,681 61,866

2,238,937 50,274

1,155,140 25,588

1,101,487 24,330

2,052,022 35,239

1,337,760 26,219

20,212

998,812 19,284

2,895,810

+ 20

+ 22TX

CO

MN

OH + 1,707

+ 1,669

All states

+ 27,216

WA

+ 92

+ 58

+ 33

+ 26

+ 1,882

+ 1,838

+ 1,712

+ 39

+ 34

+ 27

+ 25

+ 2,805

+ 78

+ 55

+ 3,872

+ 140 + 5,419

+ 19

+ 18

+ 490

115%

-958

Da

ily n

ew

ca

se

s a

nd

de

ath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, Dept. of Health and Human Services, CDC, TrendMacro calculations

3

Rolling out the vaccines in the US and the world

US overall

AK ME

56.2% 55.7%

42.1% 55.1%

35.8% 40.1%

WI VT NH

47.8% 59.2% 52.7%

45.9% 55.7% 60.5%

35.9% 37.9% 29.9%

WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA

51.1% 42.7% 49.7% 44.6% 47.0% 50.9% 50.4% 51.5% 57.0%

46.8% 34.1% 41.0% 39.4% 47.4% 46.9% 42.9% 48.0% 56.7%

32.7% 27.4% 32.5% 33.0% 34.9% 30.8% 32.5% 35.3% 37.1%

OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI

49.1% 43.7% 44.5% 54.2% 47.4% 43.7% 47.9% 53.9% 52.2% 58.1% 57.1%

44.3% 39.9% 34.1% 45.0% 44.3% 36.4% 40.6% 50.1% 52.0% 55.2% 53.0%

30.5% 28.4% 28.0% 37.8% 34.5% 27.3% 32.8% 32.7% 36.6% 39.3% 37.2%

CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE

53.2% 42.1% 49.6% 48.8% 45.9% 47.1% 49.1% 50.9% 53.7% 53.2%

49.2% 39.8% 46.8% 43.1% 37.9% 41.3% 35.9% 47.5% 48.9% 47.1%

31.1% 24.4% 33.0% 32.4% 27.7% 32.2% 30.7% 33.6% 34.7% 33.2%

AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC

48.3% 52.1% 49.9% 46.5% 43.2% 49.9% 47.0% 64.5%

41.0% 51.2% 42.7% 35.7% 34.5% 39.4% 36.7% 48.4%

29.4% 37.9% 32.0% 25.8% 24.9% 29.6% 27.8% 30.3%

OK LA MS AL GA

50.2% 42.0% 44.0% 44.7% 47.1%

38.7% 32.2% 31.1% 32.6% 35.2%

29.9% 26.6% 23.8% 23.7% 24.9%

HI TX FL PR

54.8% 46.8% 51.9% 52.7%

53.2% 38.5% 42.3% 38.1%

36.1% 27.5% 29.8% 24.9%As of May 1

324.37 million doses distributed +3.74 million/day

251.72 million doses administered +3.35 million/day

150.43 million persons partially immunized +1.36 million/day

106.86 million persons fully immunized +2.04 million/day

77.6% of distributed doses administered

State

as % population

45.0% of US pop partial 32.0% full immunity

Immunities distributed

as % population**

At least partial immunity

as % population

Full immunity

Over last day

Source: CDC, CDC, Our World in Data, TrendMacro calculations

4

US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources

Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Act Now, TrendMacro calculations

5

US deep-dive on the demographics of age, race and health

Age distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates Cumulative

Racial distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates

(Does not foot

with national average

due to sample error)

ComorbiditiesTop-ten joint causes of Covid mortalities, cumulative For over 5% of these

deaths, COVID-19 was the

only cause mentioned on

the death certificate. For

deaths with conditions or

causes in addition to COVID-

19, on average, there were

4.0 additional conditions or

causes per death.

Source: Distributions CDC, Comorbidities CDC, TrendMacro calculations

6

Recommended reading

SpaceX Makes First Nighttime Splash Down With

Astronauts Since 1968 Kenneth Chang

New York Times May 2, 2021

Was COVID-19 the only culprit behind the extraordinary

increase in deaths last year? Peter Attia

Peter Attia MD May 2, 2021

How Will Camps Keep Kids Safe This Summer? Melinda Wenner Moyer

New York Times April 29, 2021

Meme of the day

Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Pictures"

7

The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves

Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

8

The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves

Share of deceased population from day of first fatality

Source: Johns Hopkins,TrendMacro calculations

9

“Exponential”? Our most reliable evidence of the rate of spread of Covid-2019 Vertical: days to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death Flat indicates exponential spread Declining indicates supra-exponential spread Rising indicates sub-exponential spread

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

10

Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases

14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

11

Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low

◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst

Source: Covid Act Now, TrendMacro calculations

12

From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande

New York

US ex-New York

Texas998.70 bp of population infected

33.9 median population age

As of May 1

38.1 median population age

1054.83 bp of population infected

38.2 median population age

990.65 bp of population infected

26.86 bp of population fatalities

17.12 bp of population fatalities

17.32 bp of population fatalities

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

13

The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)

California

Florida

Arizona

As of May 1

1186.43 bp of population infected

38.0 median population age

42.2 median population age

947.47 bp of population infected

36.7 median population age

1042.45 bp of population infected

15.71 bp of population fatalities

16.37 bp of population fatalities

23.80 bp of population fatalities

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

14

Patient zero… and then everyone else

China

World ex-China

As of Apr 30

28.8 median population age

244.07 bp of population infected

5.12 bp of population mortalities

0.73 bp of population infected

0.03 bp of population mortalities

37.4 median population age

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

15

Impact in the largest economies

Japan

Germany

France

As of Apr 30

15.62 bp of population fatalities

847.28 bp of population infected

10.01 bp of population fatalities

0.83 bp of population fatalities

47.99 bp of population infected

410.19 bp of population infected

41.2 median population age

45.9 median population age

47.3 median population age

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Da

ily n

ew

ca

ses

an

d d

ea

ths

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

16

Impact in The Anglosphere

United Kingdom

Canada

Australia10.78 bp of population infected

37.9 median population age

As of May 1

665.32 bp of population infected

40.5 median population age

325.88 bp of population infected

40.8 median population age

19.17 bp of population fatalities

6.40 bp of population fatalities

0.33 bp of population fatalities

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

17

Impact in continental Europe

Italy

Spain

Switzerland

As of May 1

12.44 bp of population fatalities

772.39 bp of population infected

16.66 bp of population fatalities

20.05 bp of population fatalities

668.60 bp of population infected

750.81 bp of population infected

45.5 median population age

44.9 median population age

42.2 median population age

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

18

Impact in other hot-spots

South Korea

Singapore

Sweden

40.9 median population age

961.87 bp of population infected

13.88 bp of population fatalities

As of May 1

41.8 median population age

23.77 bp of population infected

107.26 bp of population infected

34.6 median population age

0.35 bp of population fatalities

0.01 bp of population fatalities

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

19

Impact in the BRICs ex-China

India

Russia

Brazil

As of May 1

39.6 median population age

26.8 median population age

145.89 bp of population infected

32.94 bp of population infected

1.61 bp of population fatalities

0.75 bp of population fatalities

33.5 median population age

702.91 bp of population infected

19.40 bp of population fatalities

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

20

Impact in the Middle East and Africa

Israel

Iran

Africa (52 nations)35.08 bp of population infected

19.7 median population age

0.92 bp of population fatalities

As of May 1

30.3 median population age

30.2 median population age

943.81 bp of population infected

287.46 bp of population infected

7.16 bp of population fatalities

8.24 bp of population fatalities

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

21

Impact in Africa, continued

South Africa As of May 1

27.6 median population age

943.81 bp of population infected

7.16 bp of population fatalities

Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations