Transit Ridership Trends and Reasons

Monday, August 12, 2019

Steven E. Polzin, PhD. Senior Advisor for Research and Technology

Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

Outline

 Transit in August 2019

 Underlying trends driving demand

 Why Ridership matters and what do we do?

2

What is Happening?

2012-2014

2018 

?

Transit ridership near 60 year high

Millennials are different

We passed peak VMT

We are urbanizing and CBD’s are thriving

Developers embrace transit

Strong referendum success

TNC’s address first- mile/last-mile issue

2015-2017

Millennials buy cars and move to suburbs

Transit ridership loss accelerates in 3-year decline

VMT and VMT/Capita returned to growth

Growth and migration resume historic patterns

System conditions, reliability, health care costs, etc. plague transit operators

How much will that subway cost? When will Hawaii's rail system open? How is that new streetcar doing?

TNC’s can cannibalize transit ridership

Why do we need transit with CAV?

3

Waymo to Buy Up to 62,000 Chrysler Minivans for Ride-Hailing Service. NYT, May 31, 2018

Governing

It's Been a Rough Year for Mass Transit With falling ridership and scrapped expansion projects, urban transit faces an uncertain future.

June 2019 Commentary By Alan Ehrenhalt | Senior Editor

National Transit Ridership Trend

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Ri de

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rip s p

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ea r

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Ridership (Billions) Ridership per Capita

Trends in Ridership and Service

-30%

-15%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

90%

105%

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National Ridership Relative to 1970 National Vehicle Miles of Services Relative to 1970

U.S. Transit Ridership Trend, Rolling 12- Month Count

9,200,000

9,400,000

9,600,000

9,800,000

10,000,000

10,200,000

10,400,000

10,600,000

10,800,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Approximate 8% decline in four years

Losing over a half million trips per day for the past 4 years

Source: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/osea/seasonaladjustment/?Page Var=TRANSIT

Th ou

sa nd

s

https://www.transtats.bts.gov/osea/seasonaladjustment/?PageVar=TRANSIT

HART Transit Ridership Trend, Rolling 12-Month Count

2017

2018

Approximate %17 decline in three years

Losing 2,500 trips per day for the past 4 years

Source: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/osea/seasonaladjustment/?Pa geVar=TRANSIT

12,000,000

12,500,000

13,000,000

13,500,000

14,000,000

14,500,000

15,000,000

15,500,000

16,000,000

16,500,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2014 2016

2015

https://www.transtats.bts.gov/osea/seasonaladjustment/?PageVar=TRANSIT

HART Monthly Ridership Trends

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

U.S. Context and Travel Trends

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015 2017 vs 2016 2018 YTD vs 2017 Months Source

U.S. Population 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 12 Census

Total Employment 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 12 BLS

Real GDP 2.9% 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% 12 BEA

Gas Price -29.3% -14.8% 15.1% 11.3% 12 EIA

Registered Cars and Light Trucks 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 12

Hedges Co.

Light Vehicle Sales 5.8% 0.1% -1.8% 0.8% 12 BEA

Count of Zero- Vehicle households -1.0% -1.9% -0.7% - - Census

VMT 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 12 FHWA

Public Transit Ridership -1.4% to -2.2% -2.1% to -1.8% -2.7% to -2.5% -1.95% to -1.97% 12

APTA and NTD

Amtrak Ridership (FY) -0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 12 Amtrak

Airline Passengers 5.3% 3.9% 3.5% 4.8% 12 USDOT, BTS

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx?Data=1

Top 40 UZAs by 2018 Transit Ridership, Change 2014-2018 (Millions)

Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database (May 2019)

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Seattle +19.081, +9.2%

Portland -4.057, -3.5%

Las Vegas -2.595, -3.8%

Phoenix -5.608, -7.5%

Denver +0.402, +0.4%

Salt Lake City -2.103, -4.5%

Miami -43.622, -25.8%

Orlando -4.802, - 15.6%Tampa

-6.016, - 19.1%

Atlanta -17.606, - 12.6%

Dallas -9.910, - 12.2%

St. Louis -11.618, -22.9%

Minneapolis -4.844, -4.9%

Honolulu -4.885, -7.1%

Riverside -5.188, - 20.7%

San Diego -13.032, -11.7%

Los Angeles -125.727, -18.7%

San Francisco -14.461, - 3.1%

Sacramento -7.154, - 23.3%

Washington D.C -66.127, -14.0%

Baltimore -18.991, -16.2%

Philadelphia -38.454, -10.5%

New York City -187.676, -4.3%

Hartford -0.002, -0.0%

Providence -3.242, - 15.4%

Boston -47.218, -11.2%

Cleveland -14.105, - 28.2%Detroit

-1.543, -4.0%

Columbus -0.138, -0.7%

Cincinnati -2.759, - 13.1%

Chicago -57.212, - 9.0%

Milwaukee -10.657, - 24.7%

Buffalo -2.443, -9.3%

Pittsburgh -0.925, -1.4%

Charlotte -6.147, - 21.5%

Austin -4.257, - 12.5%

Houston +4.065, +4.7%

New Orleans -1.430, -6.2%

San Antonio -4.223, -9.8%

• San Jose -7.780, - 17.3%

And we don’t even have automated

vehicles yet!

Miami-Dade Transit

-28.737, -26.20%

Broward County Transit

-10.551, -27.18%

Central FL RTA -5.300, -17.60%

Hillsborough Area Rapid Transit

-3.435, -21.97%

Jacksonville Transportation Authority

-0.876, -6.86%

Pinellas Suncoast Transportation

Authority -2.684, -18.36%

PalmTran -2.099, -17.15%

Gainesville RTS -1.466, -13.51%

South Florida RTA -0.076, -1.39%

City of Tallahassee -1.230, -28.65%

Top 10 Agencies in Florida by 2018 Transit Ridership, Change 2014-2018 (Millions)

Top 10 agencies make up 92.6%

of Florida ridership from

2014-2018

Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database

Hey Watson, Have we found

the bottom yet?

Commuting Share 2017, Change from 2013

Sources: ACS, WSJ

 8.6% of US HH have zero vehicles, down 0.5% since 2013 (about 5.9% of population)

 5.0% of US HH with workers have no cars

 In August 2018, < 30% of new vehicles were autos, (WSJ)

SOV/SUV Crush Competition

What Impacts Ridership?

Demographic, Economic and Land Use Factors Demand Factor

Travel Behavior

Transit Service Characteristics Supply Factor

Transit Ridership

Travel and Communications Options Supply Factor

What Underlies the Ridership Trends?

Increased auto availability

Aging

Migration trends/gentrification

Transportation network

companies (Uber, Lyft)

Telecommuting/e- commerce, etc.

Bikeshare, carshare

System safety/reliability

Personal safety/cleanliness

Gas prices

Service supply

Fares Weather

P