Transforming vehicle and fuel technologies!

Transforming Transportation 2013!

!   Presented at Transforming Transportation 2013!

!   Drew Kodjak!!   Executive Director!!   The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)!

Panel: Transforming vehicle and fuel technologiesConference: “Transforming Transportation”!

Drew Kodjak, Executive Director!

EMBARQ & World Bank!Washington DC !January 18, 2013!

The International Council on Clean Transportation

18.06!

15.11!

11.77!

4.96!3.52! 3.04!

2.02! 1.58! 1.56! 1.04! 0.85!

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China! EU - 27! U.S.! Japan! Brazil! India! Russia! Canada! South Korea!

Australia!Mexico!

2010

Car

and

Tru

ck S

ales

(in

mill

ion

units

)!

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2012 Summit: Brazil, China, Europe, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia, US!

ICCT works with government agencies in major vehicle markets that !account for ~ 85% of new vehicle sales.!

Main Messages!§  Local air pollution from vehicles largely solved

technologically but penetration is SLOW across most of the world.!§  Most advanced vehicles 99% cleaner than 1960s versions at

modest cost and no change to performance or safety.!§  Those technologies and policies are expanding SLOWLY across

the rest of the world.!§  Lack of low sulfur fuels is a pervasive bottleneck to advance

standards and technologies.!§  Huge investments in technology innovation to improve

vehicle energy efficiency is taking place in major markets.!§  Tremendous progress taking place in major markets – US, EU,

Japan, China – for passenger vehicles, heavy-duty trucks, and on the international level with international marine vessels.!

§  Government policies are necessary to drive new technologies into the marketplace to transform the energy efficiency of all vehicle modes.!

§  Eventually, transformation must include low carbon fuels and electric drive vehicles fueled on low carbon electrons.!

Conventional Pollutant Emissions!

Technology transformation is largely complete – implementation is slow in most of the world!

All regions growing in transportation energy consumption!

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2000! 2005! 2010! 2015! 2020! 2025! 2030!

Uni

t: M

boe/

day!

Rest of EU!Rest of Latin America!Africa!Russia!Australia!Korea!Japan!Brazil!Mexico!Canada!Middle East!Rest of Asia-Pacific!India!China!EU-27!U.S.!International Waterborne!

(country order in legend! matches order in chart)!

Data from: !ICCT Global Transportation Roadmap model!

The U.S., EU-27, and China require the most energy for transportation (including passenger vehicles, heavy-duty freight conveyance, and aviation). Fuel demand is expected to increase in all regions. Developing countries and regions, particularly India and the Asia-Pacific region, are expected to grow in relative impact.!

Light-duty vehicles, trucks, aviation and waterborne are key modes!

Data from: !ICCT Global Transportation Roadmap model!

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2000! 2005! 2010! 2015! 2020! 2025! 2030!

Uni

t: M

boe/

day!

WATERBORNE, 13%!

AVIATION, 10%!

FREIGHT RAIL, 2%!

PASSENGER RAIL, 1%!

TRUCK, 26%!

2&3 WHEELERS, 3%!

BUS, 6%!

LDV, 40%!percentage reflects average share over 30 year period!

The share of energy consumption by mode remains consistent over the 30-year period, with all sectors increasing in energy demand. Light-duty vehicles (LDV) and trucks consume the most energy, with a combined share of 66%!

Trends in global annual premature mortalities in urban areas from transportation-related primary PM2.5 (2000-2030)!

Source: ICCT Roadmap Model (preliminary)!

Share of global annual premature mortalities in urban areas from transportation-related primary PM2.5 (2000-2030)!

Source: ICCT Roadmap Model (preliminary)!

Fuel consumption!Technology innovation happening now and at a great pace!

Passenger Vehicle CO2 Standards!

Global CO2 Emissions Stabilized by Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards in 2025 Policies will offset doubling of vehicles on the road from 2000 to 2030 (700 million to 1.6 billion passenger vehicles)!

Tremendous progress achieved to lower fuel consumption from vehicles, and much more opportunity remains . . . !

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For more information on the ICCT please visit

http://www.theicct.org!

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Transforming Transportation 2013!

!   Co-organized by EMBARQ and The World Bank!!   More information at:!! EMBARQ.org!! worldbank.org/transport!

!   Questions? Comments? Contact us at embarq@wri.org!!   Follow us on Twitter: @EMBARQnetwork!

Transforming Transportation 2013!