Traffic Modelling Report Maynooth Strategic Traffic .Traffic Modelling Report Maynooth Strategic

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Transcript of Traffic Modelling Report Maynooth Strategic Traffic .Traffic Modelling Report Maynooth Strategic

  • Kildare County Council

    Traffic Modelling Report

    Maynooth Strategic Traffic Model

    Issue Date: 31-01-2017

  • Document Control

    Prepared By: Conor de Courcy AECOM

    Checked By: Jonathan Hennessy AECOM

    Approved By: AECOM

    Revision History

    Revision Date Comments

    1 31-01-2017 Work In Progress

  • AECOM Maynooth Traffic Management Plan and Traffic Model

    Kildare County Council Traffic Modelling Report

    Page 1

    Maynooth Strategic Traffic Model

    Traffic Modelling Report

    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 4

    1.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................... 4

    1.2 Project Background ....................................................................................................... 4

    2 Data Collection ............................................................................................................ 7

    2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 7

    2.2 National Transport Model .............................................................................................. 7

    2.3 National Traffic Model ................................................................................................... 8

    2.4 Traffic Surveys .............................................................................................................. 8

    2.5 GeoDirectory Data ...................................................................................................... 25

    3 Model Development .................................................................................................. 28

    3.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................... 28

    3.2 Definition of Model Study Area .................................................................................... 28

    3.3 Network Development ................................................................................................. 29

    3.4 Matrix Development .................................................................................................... 35

    3.5 Assignment Model ...................................................................................................... 35

    3.6 Estimation of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) ..................................................... 36

    4 Model Calibration & Validation ................................................................................ 38

    4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 38

    4.2 Calibration................................................................................................................... 38

    4.3 Model Validation ......................................................................................................... 41

    4.4 Comparison of Traffic Patterns .................................................................................... 44

    4.5 Model Convergence .................................................................................................... 47

    5 Future Year Model Development.............................................................................. 49

    5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 49

    5.2 Future Year Matrix Development ................................................................................ 49

    5.2.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................... 49

    5.3 Maynooth Area Future Development........................................................................... 49

    5.4 Future Land Use Projections & Associated Traffic Generation .................................... 52

    5.5 Allocation & Distribution of Future Growth ................................................................... 55

    5.6 Comparison of KCC Forecast to ERM and NTM ......................................................... 55

    5.7 Future Year Matrix Analysis ........................................................................................ 57

    6 Future Year Scenario Assessment .......................................................................... 62

    6.1 Maynooth LAP Roads Objectives ................................................................................ 62

    6.2 Future Year Scenarios Assessed ................................................................................ 65

  • AECOM Maynooth Traffic Management Plan and Traffic Model

    Kildare County Council Traffic Modelling Report

    Page 2

    6.3 Do-Minimum Network ................................................................................................. 65

    6.4 Do Something Networks ............................................................................................. 65

    6.5 Results ........................................................................................................................ 69

    7 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 81

    7.1 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 81

    Appendix A Traffic Surveys

    Appendix B Model Calibration

    Appendix C Model Validation

    Appendix D Future Year Forecasting & Demand Allocation - Technical Note 1

  • AECOM Maynooth Traffic Management Plan and Traffic Model

    Kildare County Council Traffic Modelling Report

    Page 3

    Chapter 1

    Introduction

  • AECOM Maynooth Traffic Management Plan and Traffic Model

    Kildare County Council Traffic Modelling Report

    Page 4

    1. Introduction

    1.1 Overview

    This Traffic Modelling Report (TMR) outlines the development, calibration/validation and traffic

    forecasting process for a strategic local area traffic model of Maynooth. The traffic model has

    been developed as part of the Maynooth Traffic Management Plan and Traffic Model project on

    being undertaken by AECOM on behalf of Kildare County Council (KCC). The model will be used

    to test the impacts of future traffic management proposals, highway network interventions and

    land use proposals in the Maynooth area. The traffic model study area for the proposed scheme

    is illustrated in Figure 1.1 below.

    The strategic traffic model has been developed in accordance with Transport Infrastructure

    Irelands (TIIs) Project Appraisal Guidelines (PAG) 2016. These guidelines are in compliance

    with the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sports Common Appraisal Framework for

    Transport Projects and Programmes (2016).

    Figure 1.1 Maynooth Traffic Model Study Area

    1.2 Project Background

    Maynooth is defined in the Regional Planning Guidelines (RPGs) for the Greater Dublin Area

    (GDA), 2010-2022, as a Large Growth Town II. As a Large Growth Town, Maynooth is an

    important self-sustaining regional economic driver, accommodating significant investment in

    transport, housing, economic and commercial activity with high-quality transport links to Dublin

    and other towns.

    Maynooth also functions as a vibrant college town with a growing population, an expanding

    university complex and potential new commercial and science/technology offerings. Within

  • AECOM Maynooth Traffic Management Plan and Traffic Model

    Kildare County Council Traffic Modelling Report

    Page 5

    Maynooth there are new residential developments under construction and a number of potential

    developments are currently in the early planning process.

    The current transport network and traffic management arrangements can result in significant

    delays and congestion, particularly along the R406, Moyglare Road and R148. The majority of

    the north-south and east-west traffic has to travel through the Main Street /Straffan Road junction

    or the Mill Street / Leinster St /Main St junction. These junctions are currently operating at

    capacity and have major impact on congestion within the town. This traffic congestion causes a

    reduction in the quality of life for people living in and visiting Maynooth.

    The Maynooth Local Area Plan 2013 to 2019 contains a number of new road links that will

    provide alternative routes to the existing arrangement and provide much needed relief to the

    main links within the town. The provision of these new links will provide further opportunity for

    improvements to the public realm and to the pedestrian/cyclists network.

    Resources for the delivery of these new links are however limited and some of the infrastructure

    will need to be delivered in conjunction with other commercial developments. As a consequence

    there is a need to understand the benefits that these new links may provide so that their delivery

    can be prioritised and any investments appropriately focused. The Maynooth Traffic

    Management Plan will provide KCC with plan led approach to future traffic management that

    assists in the fulfilment of the Maynooth Local Area