Towards Electronic Journals

Carol Tenopir

ctenopir@utk.edu

And

Donald W. King

dwking@umich.edu

Background

• Goldspiel Award from SLA

• Three decades of King Research studies

• Data and information updated 1995-2000

Carol Tenopir and Donald W. King. Towards Electronic Journals: Realities for Scientists, Librarians, and Publishers. Washington, D.C.: Special Libraries Association, 2000.

Audiences

• Librarians

• Funders

• Scientists/Researchers

• Publishers

Goals for Librarians

• Discuss e-publishing issues with your boss• Identify true costs of communication• Predict what to expect with electronic journals• Share information about realities of e-journals• Know how to better negotiate licenses, provide

print or e-journals, subscribe or pay-per-use

Replace: With:

Hype---------------------Data

Hysteria-----------------History

Myths-------------------Realities

Questions Answered:

• Why have journal prices increased so much?• Are publishers gouging libraries?• Will all print journals be replaced with electronic

journals?• Will electronic journals cost less (or be free)?• When does it make sense to subscribe to a print or

electronic journal and when does it make sense to pay-per-use?

• What are the most important roles for librarians in a digital world?

Are scientific scholarly journals worth saving?

• Scientists rely more on journals than other sources• On average, scientists may have increased their

reading of journal articles• Readings per article appear to have increased• Information is found to be important for many

purposes of reading• Value of information is high• Scientists whose work has been recognized tend to

read more

• Determine all:– Functions– Participants– Activities– Input Resources– Output Quantities

Scholarly Journals Examined from a Systems Perspective

Total Cost(excluding $’s exchanged)

• 1977 $16 billion (1998 $)

• 1998 $45 billion

Average Cost per Reading

• 1977 $65

• 1998 $60

The Question!!!

Why have average prices risen by a factor of nearly 10 times over a period of time in which the relative cost of publishing has actually decreased?

Why have journal prices spiraled upward?

• Size and Inflation—56%

• Drop in personal subscriptions

• Addition of new, low-circulation journals—17%

• McCabe thesis

• High profit/net revenue

Average Number of Personal Subscriptions to Scholarly

Journals

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1977 1978-1983

1984 1985-1989

1990-1993

1994-1998

Years of Observation

Proportion of Readings of Scholarly Scientific Articles

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Personal Library-Provided Other

1977 1993-1998

What factors affect demand?

• Price

• Journal attributes

• Availability & relative cost of alternatives

• Combinations of distribution means and media are finding a niche

Comparative Costs

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 10 20 30 40 50

Number of Readings of the Journal

Tot

al C

ost

($) Break-Even Point

IndividualSubscription

Library Use

Cost of Subscribingvs. Library Use

Individual Price

($)

Break-Even Point

(Readings)

$100 12.9

$150 18.7

$250 30.3

$500 59.4

$1,000 117.6

Individual Subscription Prices

Individual

Price

Proportion of Journals to which

Scientists can Economically Subscribe

$100 15.0

$150 8.7

$250 3.2

$500 0.7

$1,000 <0.1

Source: King, et al. surveys 1993-1998

Library Owning vs.Borrowing Article Copies

0100200300400500600700800900

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Number of Readings of the Journal

Tot

al C

ost

($) Break-Even Point

ILL/Document Delivery

InstitutionalSubscriptions

Subscribing vs. Separate Copies

Institutional Price Break-Even Point in Number of Readings

$100 9.5

$150 12.1

$250 17.3

$500 30.4

$1,000 56.5

Library Subscription Prices

Institutional Price

Proportion of Journals to which Libraries can Economically Subscribe

$100 88.9

$150 84.6

$250 78.2

$500 65.5

$1,000 49.0

Purchasing vs.Document Delivery

Document Delivery Fees

Journal Prices

$0 $5 $10 $20 $30

$100 17.4 11.8 8.9 6.0 4.5

$250 31.9 21.5 16.2 10.9 8.2

$500 55.9 37.8 28.5 19.1 14.4

$1,000 104.0 70.2 53.0 35.6 26.8

Electronic Journalsvs. Separate Copies

Article Access Fees

Subscription Price ($)

$0 $5 $10 $20 $30

$100 19.6 10.4 7.1 4.3 3.1

$250 46.0 24.4 16.7 10.2 7.3

$500 90.1 47.8 32.6 19.9 14.3

$1,000 178.3 94.8 64.5 39.4 28.3

Number of Separate Copies of Articles Received by Scientists

1977 1993-1998

ILL/Document Delivery

4 million >40 million

Other 39 million >60 million

43 million >100 million

Some alternative pricing policies

• Site licenses

• Differential pricing

• Unit pricing

• No magic bullet

Where Do We Go From Here?

• New and specialized journals will be electronic

• Journal availability in print and electronic

• Impact of full-text databases

• Emphasis on accessibility of information

• Time is valuable