Total Ozone &

Changes in UV

A.W.SchmalwieserInstitut für Medizinische Physik und Biostatistik Veterinärmedizinische Universität Wien

TRAINING SCHOOL - COST 726

Solar UV-Radiation

•Distance Earth-Sun, Solarcycle

•Solar height (date, time, location)

•Cloudiness

•Total ozone column of the atmosph.

•Aerosol load (clearness)

•Altitude

•Albedo (Snow,...)

•Environ (free horizone, trees, ...)

Dependence of solar UV Radiation ?

SUN

Erarth surface

1. Ozone in the atmosphere

Ozone in the atmosphere

Where is it?:< 1% ground near (poison)< 10% Troposphere (up to 15km)~90% in the Stratosphere (15-25km)(thickness: 2mm - 4mm)

Ozone in the atmosphere

temporal variability:

season: Solar height, Atmospheric Dynamics years: Globale Dynamics, El Nino/Nina, .. 11 years: Solar cycleirregulary: Vulkanos, ....

Ozone in the atmosphere

Most important biological property:

Ozone dimishes UV-Radiation from the Sun

Ozone in the atmosphere

Ozone protects us from UV radiation by Absorption (of UV-C and UV-B radiation)

© NASA 2007

O3 + UV -> O+O2

Ozone in the atmosphere

Self-regeneration:

© NASA 2007

Ozone in the atmosphere

Ozon destruction by:CFCs Chlorofluorocarbons

© NASA 2007

Catalysators: NO, NO2, Br, Cl, Methan, ....

Antarctic Ozone Hole

© NASA 2008

Antarctic Ozone Hole

How large is it? - does it become smaller?

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 20070

5

10

15

20

25

30

Fläc

he [M

km2 ]

Jahr

2007: 22 Mkm2

2006:26 Mkm21979: 0 Mkm2

1979: 225 DU 1998: 96 DU

2007: 114 DU

Mean size (21.Sept.-15.Oct.)

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 20070

50

100

150

200

250

Tief

stw

ert [

DU

]

Jahr

Lowest value(21.Sept. - 15.Oct.)

Globale Ozone Decrease

• Geographic Location (middle and high latitudes• Season (October-June)• Climatic conditions (dynamic zones)• Vulkanos:

Mt. PinatuboEl Chichon

Is there a similar decrease all over the world?

Natural variability and dynamics?

Global distribution of Stratospheric Ozone

Natural variability over the Tropics ?

Global distribution of Stratospheric Ozone

Nairobi, Kenya (1°S)

Natural variability over the Sub-Tropics ?

Global distribution of Stratospheric Ozone

Springbok, RSA, 30°S

01.01.2003 01.07.2003 01.01.2004 01.07.2004 01.01.2005 01.07.2005 01.01.2006 01.07.2006 01.01.2007 01.07.2007 01.01.2008200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Tota

l Ozo

ne C

onte

nt [D

U]

Date

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Natural variability over Central Europe ?

Stratospheric Ozone over Central Europe

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

-0.429 [DU/Yr]

-0.538 [DU/Yr]

-0.866 [DU/Yr]

-1.020 [DU/Yr]

-0.637 [DU/Yr]

Tota

l Ozo

ne C

olum

n [D

U]

Year

Max p95% p50% p5% Min

stat. Not sign.

stat. not sign.

stat. significant

Stratospheric Ozone over Central Europe

Chance over Central Europe?

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Tota

l Ozo

ne C

olum

n [D

U]

Month of the Year

Monthly mean 1979-1983 2002-2006

Seasonal dependence of decrease ?

Stratospheric Ozone over Central Europe

When has it started?

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90Häufigkeit von Tagen mit "dünner Ozonschicht" (Februar-August)

Tage

pro

Jah

r

Jahr

10 % 20 % 30 %

Stratospheric Ozone over Central Europe

Day

s per

yea

r

Year

Negative deviations from mean

Ozone-Mini-Holes

Where do the come from? Polar, (Sub)trops, Low pressure atlantic

Are there Ozone holes over Europe?

Ozone Mini Holes

How dangerous are Ozone Mini Holes ?

01.02.99 04.02.99 07.02.99 10.02.99 13.02.99 16.02.99 19.02.990.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

E eff[1

]

Date

ERY DNA-D GP-D

2. Accuracy of measurements ?

How to get ozone values?

Hoher Sonnblick (3106m),(© S.Simic., Inst. f. Meteorologie, BOKU)

Ground measurements:Brewer, Doboson, Microtops,...Europa: 1920er (Davos, CH)AUT: since 1994 am Hohen Sonnblick,

from satellites:seit 1978 NASA (TOMS),NOAA (TOVS),ESA (GOME)

reconstruction (COST 726):since 1950ies, europe,100km resolution

How to get ozone values for free?

Ground based (Brewer, Dobson, M83, ...) :WOUDC (WMO): ground based measurements (back to 1950ies)

Satellites:TOMS (Nasa): 1978-1993METEOR-3 (Nasa): 1993-94ADEOS (Nasa): 1994EPTOMS (Nasa): 1996 - 2004OMI (Nasa): 2004-TOVS (NOAA): 1995 - 2002GOME (ESA): 1996 -SCIAMACHY: (2002 - present)

Gridded data bases (1x1°):COST 726 Total Ozone Climatology, ... -> later shown

Accuracy of measurements?

Comparison of different instruments

Ground measurements:Brewer, Doboson,

from satellites:EPTOMS (NASA), TOVS (NOAA) GOME (ESA)

Alois W. Schmalwieser et al. (2007)Sensitivity of Erythemally Effective UV Irradiance and Daily Exposure to Uncertainties in Measured Total OzonePhotochemistry and Photobiology, 2007, 83: 433–443

Accuracy of measurements?

Comparison of different instruments in Central Europe

Percentils: p50 (mean), p95 (1/month)

p100 (maximum 3yr)

Accuracy of measurements?

Comparison of different instruments in the Sub-Tropics

Percentils: p50 (mean), p95 (1/month)

p100 (maximum 3yr)

Accuracy of measurements

Comparison of different instruments in the Tropics

Percentils: p50 (mean), p95 (1/month)

p100 (maximum 3yr)

3. What does the restricted accuracy denote for calculations ofthe UV Index and the daily radiant

exposure?

Accuracy of measurements

Effect on the UV Index over Central Europe?

Perc

entil

s: p

50 (m

ean)

, p95

(1/m

onth

), p1

00 (m

axim

um3y

r)

Accuracy of measurements

Effect on the „Daily Dose“ over Central Europe?

Perc

entil

s: p

50 (m

ean)

, p95

(1/m

onth

), p1

00 (m

axim

um3y

r)

2,5 UVIh = 1 MED(ST1,2) = 1 SPF

4. Restrictions to due spatial resolution ?

Spatial Resolution?

Effect on the UV Index & Daily Dose over Central Europe?

Perc

entil

s: p

50 (m

ean)

, p95

(1/m

onth

), p1

00 (m

axim

um3y

r)

Altitude effect: can be correctedLatitude (> Longitude)

2,5 UVIh = 1 MED(ST1,2) = 1 SPF

5. Restrictions due to temporal resolution ?

Temporal resolution?

Effect on the UV Index + Daily Dose over Central Europe?

Perc

entil

s: p

50 (m

ean)

, p95

(1/m

onth

), p1

00 (m

axim

um3y

r)

2,5 UVIh = 1 MED(ST1,2) = 1 SPF

All together?

Effect on the UV Index & Daily Dose over Central Europe?

Perc

entil

s: p

50 (m

ean)

, p95

(1/m

onth

), p1

00 (m

axim

um3y

r)

2,5 UVIh = 1 MED(ST1,2) = 1 SPF

Summary

Effect on the UV Index & Daily Dose (global)?

The most critical parameter for the accuracy of calculated UV index values and daily dose values is the temporal resolution.

The influence of a spatial resolution of 100 km (approx.1°x1°) is clearly smaller than that of the two others.

Measurement uncertainties have also a remarkableinfluence on the accuracy ->

UV INDEX CAN CALCULATED WITH AN ACCURACY OF ±1 !!

SPF (DAILY DOSE) CAN BE CALCULATED WITH AN ACCURACY OF ± 3 LSF (ST1,2) !!! -> ENHANCE PUBLISHED LSF BY +3LSF

UV Radiation

6. Change of UV ?

Reconstruction of UV Radiation

-2% / 10J.

UV Radiation over Austria

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004280

300

320

340

360

380

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

TOC

[DU

]

EEr

ytth

em[J

/m2 ]

Jahr

TOC

UV + 2%-3%

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004280

300

320

340

360

380

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

TOC

[DU

]

EEr

ytth

em[J

/m2 ]

Jahr

Sonnblick Wien TOC

+9% / 10J.

+4% / 10J.

Reconstruction of UV Radiation

UV Radiation over Austria

UV + 2%-3%

-2% / 10J.

UV Radiation over Austria

Wien

Sonnblick

Sun

shin

e du

ratio

n[%

]

Dai

lyD

ose

Reconstruction of UV Radiation

UV Radiation over Austria

Season UV Ozone sun shinduration

Winter + 12% - 2% bis - 3% + 10%Spring + 10% - 3% + 6%

Summer + 6% - 2% + 7%Autumn + 5% - 1% + 4%

Influence of Ozone and Cloudiness to the increase of solar UV-radiation

depends on season

7. Photobiological / medical Effect ?

Biological Effects of UV-Radiation

•Solar spectrum: (Ozone,..)

•Intensity of radiation (Ozone, clouds,...)

•Duration of exposure

•spectral sensitivity of thebiological reaction

- Sun burn, snow blindness, DNA-damage, skin cancer, cataract, skin aging, ...

+ Vitamin D, Inactivation of pathogenic micro-organisms, ...

Effectivity depends

280 300 320 340 360 380 4001E-6

1E-5

1E-4

1E-3

0.01

0.1

1

Erythem

Hautkrebs

DNS

Typ. Sonnnenspektrum

Effe

ktiv

ität [

1]

Wellenlänge [nm]

OZON

Effects:

Influence of changes in OZONE

Examples:

Δ1% = 1,1% - 1,2% Erythema (Sun burn)

= 1,7% - 1,6% Melanoma

= 2,1% - 2,2% DNA-damage

= 3,3% - 4,4% HIV-activation

= 1,1% - 1,2% Cornea damage

= 0,4% PLE-damage

THANKS