To&frac2onate&or¬:& dilemmas&of&the& … Lanka Mozambique Madagascar Syria C te d'Ivoire Cameroon...

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©JMC/JCC AB 2011 To frac2onate or not: dilemmas of the developing na2on John Curling, JCC AB Plasma Protein Biotechnology Mee2ng Paphos, Cyprus, 913 May 2011

Transcript of To&frac2onate&or¬:& dilemmas&of&the& … Lanka Mozambique Madagascar Syria C te d'Ivoire Cameroon...

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

To  frac2onate  or  not:  dilemmas  of  the  developing  na2on            John  Curling,  JCC  AB  Plasma  Protein  Biotechnology  Mee2ng  Paphos,  Cyprus,  9-­‐13  May  2011      

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

▶ Developing  countries  

▶ Frac2ona2on  climate  

▶ Buy    or  contract  

▶ Establish  frac2ona2on  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Who  are  the  developing  na2ons?  Gapminder W

orld Chart 2010 Version May 2010b

Money GDP per person in US dollars (purchasing power adjusted) (log scale)

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Costa Rica IrelandNew Zealand

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Mauritania

Liberia

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Armenia

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Gapminder World Map 2010

Colour by region:

Size by population:

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www.gapminder.orghttp://www.gapminder.org/worldmap

1. San Marino2. Monaco3. Cyprus4. Montenegro5. Saint Lucia6. St Vincent & Grenadines

Data are for 2009 for all 192 UN member states and the other 5 countries and territories with more than 1 million people (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Palestine, Puerto Rico and Kosovo). Free to copy, share and remix but attribute Gapminder. For sources see:

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Low  development  countries  

▶  Local  frac2ona2on  is  a  long  term  goal  ▶  Most  blood  is  collected  in  hospital  blood  banks  from  family  replacement  

donors  ▶  Very  few  countries  are  able  to  have  plasma  frac2onated  ▶  Most  low  development  countries  cannot  afford  plasma  deriva2ves  and  

cannot  send  surplus  for  frac2ona2on  ▶  In  reality  most  countries  do  not  have  the  exper2se  and  structure  to  

regulate  blood  products  ▶  Unable  to  meet  financial,  technical,  tes2ng,  GMP  and  infrastructural  

standards  ▶  There  are  very  few  Na2onal  Blood  Service  organisa2ons  ▶  Need  to  re-­‐visit  “voluntary  non-­‐remunerated  dona2on”  dogma  ▶  “Developing  countries  will  become  developed  countries”  

Summarised  from  Emmanuel,  J.  IPPC,  Lisbon  2011  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Global  plasma  supply  to  2015  

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Robert,  P.  (2009)  Pharmaceu2cals  Policy  &  Law  11,  359-­‐367,  WHO  Sta2s2cs  

RoW      Europe                  USA   USA  4.5%  

Europe  (EU)  7.3%  

RoW  88.2%  

Popula2on  2008,  6.7  billion  Popula2on  distribu2on,  2008  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Number  of  frac2onators  by  region  Number  

Robert,  P.  (1987-­‐2008)  Interna2onal  Directory  of  Plasma  Frac2onators  

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Status   1984   1987   1990   1993   1996   1999   2002   2004   2007  

Total  number   95   99   102   95   86   86   80   71   65  

Commercial   39%   37%   32%   35%   44%   53%   54%   60%   65%  

Non-­‐profit   61%   63%   68%   65%   56%   47%   46%   40%   35%  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Plasma  frac2ona2on  distribu2on  

Capacity  Litres,  M  

Capacity  U2lisa2on  

CSL  Behring   6.2   81%  

Baxter   6.0   92%  

Grifols/Talecris   7.8   86%  

Octapharma   3.3   80%  

23.3  

*Capacity  data  from  JP  Morgan,  2010  and  Goodsall,  A.  et  al.,  UBS  Q-­‐Series,  2010  

5  4  frac2onators  control  85%  of  US  source  plasma  and  >70%  of  the  global  supply  Global  capacity  (2009)    ≈  38  M  litres,  80%  usage  ≈  30  M  litres    

UBS Investment Research

Key Call: CSL Limited

And then there were 3; Grifols/Talecris deal

Industry consolidates with Grifols/Talecris deal; leaves 3 major US playersConsistent with our expectations (UBS note 27 Apr-11 refers); US FTC has agreed terms allowing Grifols/Talecris transaction to proceed; with limited divestments.Italian fractionator Kedrion gains interim intermediate Melville plant, 2 collectioncentres & TLCR Factor VIII business; & contracted IVIG/Albumin fractionation for its US volumes (UBSe ~350-400k litres). There appears to be no majordivestment of key IVIG/Albumin products or volume; post transaction UBSe thetop 3 fractionators BAX.N; CSL.AX & GRF.SM will control ~90% of US market.

Implications for CSL: consolidation been positive for supply & earnings UBS reference to parallels with the 2002-04 oversupply cycle where M&A was akey investment ‘milestone’ for industry earnings recovery. We recognise thatindustry consolidation has brought short and shallow over/under supply cycles, andrational supply decisions committing volume to the higher priced USA market.

Key plasma roadmap milestone for industry; more to follow Post transaction BAX/CSL/GRF will control ~65% of the global IVIG market.Fourth player Octapharma (currently absent from IVIG market), will join severalfractionators with less than 10% global market, including Kedrion & Biotest.

Valuation: $44.00ps Buy; PT uses NAV FY12E +DCF-HPV/R&D UBSe assume Octa obtain final EC approval in coming weeks (but with logistics &local authorisation steps, we rate Octa effectively a Jul-11 re-entrant); & we model & value CSL on ~15% ex-Octa 3rd party volume gains impacting FY12.

Highlights (A$m) 06/09 06/10 06/11E 06/12E 06/13ERevenues 4,787 4,586 4,243 4,784 5,117EBIT (UBS) 1,368 1,357 1,234 1,524 1,624Net Income (UBS) 1,077 962 996 1,185 1,275EPS (UBS, A$) 1.80 1.70 1.84 2.25 2.42Net DPS (UBS, A$) 0.70 0.80 0.84 1.00 1.08 Profitability & Valuation 5-yr hist av. 06/10 06/11E 06/12E 06/13EEBIT margin % 22.5 29.6 29.1 31.9 31.7ROIC (EBIT) % 24.1 32.1 29.6 35.7 36.0EV/EBITDA (core) x 14.1 12.2 13.4 11.1 10.2PE (UBS) x 21.3 19.3 18.9 15.4 14.3Net dividend yield % 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.1 Source: Company accounts, Thomson Reuters, UBS estimates. (UBS) valuations are stated before goodwill, exceptionals and other special items. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of A$34.66 on 02 May 2011 19:42 EST Andrew Goodsall Analyst [email protected] +61-2-9324 3574

Dan Hurren Analyst [email protected] +61-2-9324 3575

Global Equity Research

Australia

Pharmaceuticals

12-month rating Buy

Unchanged

12m price target A$44.00/US$48.06 Unchanged

Price A$34.66/US$37.86 RIC: CSL.AX BBG: CSL AU

2 May 2011 Trading data (local/US$) 52-wk range A$37.99-30.55/US$39.00-25.18Market cap. A$19.1bn/US$20.8bnShares o/s 550m (ORD)Free float 100%Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,877Avg. daily value (m) A$66.6 Balance sheet data 06/11E Shareholders' equity A$3.62bnP/BV (UBS) 5.1xNet Cash (debt) A$1.95bn Forecast returns Forecast price appreciation +26.9%Forecast dividend yield 4.1%Forecast stock return +31.0%Market return assumption 9.9%Forecast excess return +21.1% EPS (UBS, A$) 06/11E 06/10 UBS Cons. ActualH1 0.94 - 0.93H2E 0.90 - 0.7706/11E 1.84 1.8206/12E 2.25 2.07 Performance (A$)

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Stock Price (A$) Rel. All Ordinaries

Source: UBS www.ubs.com/investmentresearch

This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Australia Ltd ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 6. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

.  There  are  NO  major  frac2onators  yet  in  developing  countries    Import,  contract  manufacture  from  domes2c  plasma  or  frac2onate?  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

The  import  alterna2ve  

▶  Regulated  and  approved  products  available  (FDA/EMEA  etc.)  ▶  Plasma-­‐derived  coagula2on  factors  are  cheaper  than  recombinant  versions  ▶  Coagula2on  factor  concentrates  are  adequate  in  many  seongs  ▶  Developed  countries  have  less  need  for  albumin,  developing  countries  need  HSA  

▶  The  “West”  has  a  zero  risk  mentality    –    stringent  regula2ons  for  small  popula2ons  ▶  Developing  na2ons  may  have  lower  safety  expecta2ons  in  order  to  serve  very  

large  popula2ons  

▶  Consider  the  effects  of  lower  cost  manufacturing  in  e.g.  China  with  improved  regulatory  standards  

▶  Short  term  solu2on  is  to  import  ▶  Import  of  plasma  products  does  not  contribute  to  the  na2onal  development    

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Contract/Toll  manufacturing  

▶ WHO  and  WFH  contract  frac2ona2on  texts  tend  to  be              nega2ve  to  establishing  domes2c  frac2ona2on  

▶  Documents  cite  investment  as  barrier  (US$  50-­‐100  Million,  100,000  –  300,000  L*)  ▶  Plasma  quan2ty,  quality  and  safety  as  an  issue    ▶  Domes2c  blood  donor  pool  insufficient  for  plasma  supply  to  meet  FVIII,  IVIG  needs  

BUT  

▶  Contract  frac2ona2on  and  a  domes2c  plant  (an  agreement  between  state  and  private  enterprise)  alterna2ves  require  the  same  commitments  except  for  capital  

▶  Exis2ng  guidances  do  not  encompass  long  term  financial/economic  calcula2ons  ▶  Exis2ng/published  documents  do  not  consider  long  term  na2onal  benefits    

*Source:  WFH  Contract  Frac2ona2on  Third  Edi2on,  April  2008,  Facts  and  Figures  No.5  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Make  or  buy?  Price  paid  or  revenue  in?  

Product   Yield/L   Price,  US$   Revenue  US$/L  

Albumin   25g   4/g   100  

IVIG   5g   73/g   365  

Factor  VIII   180  IU   0.35/IU   63  

Factor  IX   210  IU   0.26/IU   54.6  

Total  revenue   US$  582.6/L  

IVIG   USA   Europe   RoW   China   India  

Use  g/1,000   105   40-­‐80   -­‐   2-­‐3   -­‐  

Price   ≈  $67/g   $48-­‐61/g   $42-­‐61/g   $12-­‐22/g   $22-­‐40/g  

Growth   5-­‐6%   2-­‐4%   4-­‐5%   Slow   Slow  Sources:  Turner,  A.  (NBA),  2006,  Biotest,  2010  

Source:  Compiled  by  Goss,  NH  (2011)    from  MRB  reported  tenders    

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Contract  frac2ona2on  costs:  Iran  

Product   Yield   Total  (avg.)    Cost/g  or  IU*   Total  cost  

Albumin   22.3-­‐26.0  g/L   1,811  kgs   $2/g   $3.6  M  

IVIG   4.2-­‐4.6  g/L   330  kgs   $  60/g   $19.8  M  

FVIII   142-­‐153  IU/L   11  M  IU   $  0.32/IU   $  3.5  M  

Factor  IX   (210  IU)   16  M  IU   $  0.32/IU   $  5  M  *  Calculated  from  Brazilian  data   $31.9  Million  

Source:  Cheraghali  AM,  Aboofazeli  R.  (2009)  Transfusion  Medicine,  19,  363-­‐368      

▶  Iran  sends  75,000  litres  of  plasma  for  frac2ona2on  in  Germany  ▶  Iran’s  import  costs  are  $  31.9  M  annually  from  Iranian  plasma  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Contract  frac2ona2on/import  costs:  Brazil  

Product   Imported  amount    Cost/g  or  IU*   Total  cost,  US$  M  

Albumin   24,630  kgs     $2/g   49.3  

IVIG   2,120  kgs   $  60/g   126.5    

FVIII   276  M  IU   $  0.32/IU   87.8  

Factor  IX   59.4  M  IU   $  0.32/IU   18.9  

*Calculated  from  Iranian  data   US$  282.5  Million  

Source:  Farrugia  A,  Evers  T,  Falcou  P-­‐F,  Burnouf  T,  Amorim  L,  Thomas  S.  Biologicals    (2009)  37,  88-­‐93  

▶  Brazil  collects  4  M  blood  dona2ons  ▶  Brazil  sends  200,000  litres  of  plasma  for  frac2ona2on  to  France  ▶  Brazil’s  import  costs  are  $  282.5  M  annually  ▶  US$  141.25/litre  frac2onated    

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Costs  of  frac2ona2on  excl.  fill/finish  

Cost  distribu2on  per  litre  plasma.  PPTA  costs  adapted  from  Bult,  J.  IPPC,  Warszawa  2008.  Cohn  from  Biokine2cs  model,  2005.  BioPharm  Services  model  for  chromatography,  January  2009.  *  Goss,  NH  and  Curling  JM.  To  be  published  (Wiley-­‐Blackwell)  2011/2012.  

 

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US$/litre  plasma  Average  cost  of  frac2ona2on  =  $  105/litre  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Standard  frac2ona2on  revenues  and  costs  

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Goss,  NH  and  Curling  JM.  To  be  published  (Wiley-­‐Blackwell)  2011/2012  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Developing  na2on  scenario?  

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HSA:        $2/g  F  VIII:    $  0.17/IU  IgG:          $  37/g  F  IX:        $  0.13/IU  Revenues:  $  291.3/L  

No  plasma  cost  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Investment  cost  comparison  for  biosimilars,  India  

Source:  Adapted  from  Crédit  Suisse:  Biosimilars  101,  21  August  2009  

$140 M

$48 M $10 M

$410 M

$100 M $62 M

Bacterial/EPO   Mammalian/MAb  US$  M  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Poli2cal  will,  poli2cal  stability  ▶ Poli2cal  commitment  must  translate  in  to  budget  +  support  ▶ Frac2ona2on  is  a  long  term  agreement    

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Two  frac2onators  

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1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8  1990                1993                1996              1999              2002              2004                2007            2009  

Litres  frac2onated  (000’s)  

Priva2sa2on  

Acquisi2ons  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Establish  frac2ona2on  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Establishing  frac2ona2on  

▶  “A  reliance  on  market  forces  is  ill-­‐advised  if  supply  is  not  to  become  vulnerable  to  the  effects  of  source  scarcity  and  price  differences.”  (1)  

▶  “In  an  interna2onal  framework  of  recurrent  plasma  products  shortage,  it  is  surprising  to  consider  the  amount  of  plasma  that  is  thrown  out  of  the  transfusion  services  due  to  a  lack  of  quality  or  considera2on  for  its  poten2al  added  value.”  (2)  

▶  “Experience  shows  that  the  ini2a2on  of  a  plasma  frac2ona2on  program  provides  usually  beneficial  impacts  on  the  blood  supply  quality  when  collec2on  of  Plasma  for  Frac2ona2on  is  intended  to  meet  interna2onal  regulatory  quality  standards  and  specifica2ons  of  established  frac2onators.  It  is  also  a  prac2cal  incen2ve  for  implementa2on  of  GMP  concepts  by  blood  establishments”  (3)  

1.  T  Evers  IPFA,  2.  P-­‐F  Falcou  LFB,  3.    T  Burnouf  HPPS;  Biologicals  37  (2009)  88-­‐93    

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Effec2ve  Culturally  acceptable  

Affordable  Sustainable  locally  

Measurable  Not  over-­‐dependent  on  external  skills  

Poli2cally  relevant*        

Cryo  +  Cohn/Kistler-­‐Nitschmann  Cryo  +  Fr  I  +  chromatography  

Chromatography  base  Mul2ple/single  use  

Integrated  viral  inac2va2on  Integrated  prion  reduc2on  

Technology  

*Elliot,  K.  Appropriate  technology  BMJ  288  (1984)  1251-­‐1252    

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

   “There  is  a  much  higher  prevalence  of  infec2ous  diseases  (HIV,  Hepa22s  B  and  C)  in  developing  countries”          (Emmanuel  J.  2011)  

Downstream  processing  must  fix  product  safety  104  +  104  =  100,000,000  -­‐  fold  viral  reduc2on  

10  -­‐  fold  reduc2on  before  and  a{er  processing  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Product  delivery  in  the  developing  world  ▶  “The  emerging  frac2ona2on  sector  in  the  developing  world  demonstrates  that  

high-­‐quality  products  may  also  be  manufactured  outside  the  tradi2onal  sector”  

▶  “Globaliza2on  of  the  Chinese  economy  has  s2mulated  the  frac2ona2on  industry  in  that  country”  

▶  “The  desirability  of  harmoniza2on  in  regulatory  requirements  is  heightened  through  the  need  to  allow  a  maximal  level  of  cross-­‐border  traffic  for  such  [plasma]  products”  

▶  “Collec2on  of  source  plasma  by  apheresis  has  the  poten2al  to  generate  sufficiency  in  plasma  products  ………….  The  ability  to  collect  large  volumes  of  plasma  repeatedly  from  well-­‐accredited  donors  over  a  rela2vely  short  2me  interval  offers  significant  safety  advantages  as  well  as  facilita2ng  sufficiency”  

▶  “Despite  what  is  apparently  an  adequacy  and  indeed  a  surplus  of  capacity  in  the  developed  world,  the  benefits  of  having  a  number  of  well-­‐resourced  plants  in  the  developing  world  appear  to  make  this  op2on  a�rac2ve.”  

Farrugia,  A.  Haemophilia  10,  Suppl.  4  (2004)  77-­‐82.    

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Sustainability  of  frac2ona2on        Long  term  agreement  between  state  (blood  authority)  and  frac2onator    (BUT  independent  of  poli2cal  change)    Plasma  supply  growth  for  growing  needs    Long  term  support  and  supply  needs    (Everything  from  Air  to  Zeolite)    Growth  of  infrastructural  support    Emergency  provisions    R  &  D    New  product  development  and  introduc2on    Integra2on  of  new  safety  measures    Integra2on  of  new  technology    Enter  the  interna2onal  network  

   

 Start  small  (≥100,000  litres)  and  grow……    (“≥20,000  litres  –  contract  frac2onate”)  

     

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Inven2ng  a  be�er  future  ▶  The  world  is  changing  at  a  rapid  pace  driven  by  science  and  technology  ▶  Business-­‐as-­‐usual  will  leave  an  ever  growing  gap  between  “have”  and  

“have-­‐not”  na2ons  ▶  The  culture  and  values  of  science  are  cri2cal  for  building  a  global  

community  ▶  Investments  in  science  and  technology  are  increasingly  important  for  

economic  growth  

▶  High  income,  industrialised  na2ons  spend  1.5%  to  3.8%  of  GDP  on  R  &  D  

▶  Our  recommenda2ons  represent  universal  needs  for  inven2ng  a  be�er  future.  Stronger  science    and  technology  capacity  in  the  developing  na2ons  is  not  a  luxury  but  an  absolute  necessity  if  these  na2ons  are  to  par2cipate  as  full  partners  in  the  world’s  fast-­‐forming,  knowledge-­‐based  economy.  

InterAcademy  Council,  Inven2ng  a  be�er  future,  Amsterdam,  ,  2004  

Improve  the  access  to  plasma  product  therapies  Drive  the  availability  of  quality  assured  plasma  Start  or  plan  for  frac2ona2on  now!  

Sankai  Juko  Butoh  Dance  Company  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

Plasma  supply  

$  100,000,000  

©JMC/JCC  AB  2011  

 Acknowledgements:  NG,  JB,  friends  and  colleagues  of  the  plasma  frac2ona2on  industry