Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. •...

36
Tocqueville Gold Strategy June 2014 Private and Confidential. Not for distribution Doug Groh Co-Portfolio Manager

Transcript of Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. •...

Page 1: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Tocqueville Gold Strategy

June 2014

Private and Confidential. Not for distribution

Doug Groh Co-Portfolio Manager

Page 2: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

This material may not be distributed, published, or reproduced, in whole or in part, without the prior approval of Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. The information presented in this material has been prepared by Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. and/or obtained from sources which it believes to be reliable, however it does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information. The views expressed in this presentation are the opinion of Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. Charts or quotes from other sources have been selected because, in our view, they provide an interesting, provocative or enlightening perspective on current events or the topic of discussion. Their reproduction in no way implies that we endorse any part of the material or investment recommendations that might be included.

Disclaimer

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Page 3: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• New York-based, SEC registered investment adviser formed in 1985

• Contrarian, fundamentals-driven investor that specializes in undervalued and out-of-favor assets

• Disciplined investment process that seeks to mitigate risk via in-depth primary research and vigilant portfolio oversight

• $12.2 billion of assets under management as of 4/30/14

• Employee-owned limited partnership is an incentive to excel and a source of organizational stability

Tocqueville Asset Management

3

Please refer to page 23 for full disclosures regarding the Tocqueville Gold Equity Composite.

Page 4: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Mutual fund • Separately managed accounts • Private funds

Portfolios

• $2.3 billion Gold Strategy AUM as of 4/30/14

• 18.5% Percentage of Firm’s Assets

Composite Returns 9/30/98 - 4/30/14

Gold Net Returns XAU Index1

Cumulative 374.5% 53.7% Annualized 10.5% 2.8%

Tocqueville Gold Portfolios

4

1. PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU). Please refer to page 23 for full disclosures regarding the Tocqueville Gold Equity Composite. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Page 5: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Tocqueville’s View on Gold

5

Reasons to Own Gold

• Store of value •No counterparty risk •Under-owned by financial

institutions •Growing discrepancy between

paper claims and physical gold • Low correlation with the S&P 500

Limited Supply of Physical Gold

•Growing investor demand •Mine supply challenged •Physical gold premiums elevated

after the April 2013 sell off

Ideal Macroeconomic Environment

•Negative real interest rates •Potential risk of inflation •Growing distrust of financial

institutions, politicians, and currencies

Page 6: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Gold has retained its purchasing power over the long-term

• Paper currencies lose purchasing power because of governments’ policies to print money

– Some policies were extreme and their currencies are now extinct

Gold is a Store of Value

6

Purchasing power calculated from the implicit price deflator for US GDP and the exchange rates of foreign currencies for US dollars. As of 3/31/14. Source: American Institute for Economic Research, Bloomberg, MeasuringWorth.com.

100-Trillion Zimbabwe dollar note (2008-09)

500-Billion Yugoslav dinar note (1992-94) 100-Billion German mark note (1922-23)

Japanese Yen

British Pound

Reichsmark 1924=1.0

Deutsche Mark* 1924=1.0

French Franc*

US Dollar

Gold

Swiss Franc

German Mark

0,0001

0,0010

0,0100

0,1000

1,0000

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013

Purchasing Power in the United States of Gold and Selected Currencies (1913=1.0)

4. 0000

*using Euro 1999-2014

Page 7: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Many countries have unveiled unprecedented monetary stimulus

– Japan (Apr 2013) - $58B/month or ~13% of GDP on an annual basis

– US (Apr 2014) - $45B/month or ~3% of GDP on an annual basis

– Swiss National Bank expanded its balance sheet relative to GDP from 21% in 2007 to 82% in 2012

• Adding debt is fine until others believe it cannot be repaid

• History suggests that many large countries are now in or approaching the “danger zone”

Monetary Extremism is Currently in Vogue

7

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

The Biggest 6 Central Bank Balance Sheets US, UK, Japan, China, EU & Switzerland (US$T)

Source: Bloomberg.

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Japan* US EU UK Switzerland China

Debt to GDP Greece Default (2012) Argentina Default (2001) Indonesia Default (1999-2002) Russia Default (1999) Pakistan Default (1999)

Source: IMF, Bloomberg.

2000 2010 2012

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$0

$2 000

$4 000

$6 000

$8 000

$10 000

$12 000

$14 000

Japan US Europe Gold UK Canada Denmark Australia China Switzerland

Billi

ons

Market Size of the Primary "Reserve" Assets = $39T

$32T

Source: World Gold Council.

• Financial institutions from central banks to hedge funds have few alternatives to the traditional “reserve” currencies

– Most options lack size, liquidity, and reputation/history

• Gold is the logical “alternative” and is the only one without counterparty risk

Alternative Currencies

8

Page 9: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Gold Equities Provide Optionality & Leverage to the Gold Price

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Alternative to Currency Debasement

Organic Growth: Discovery/ Resource

Enhancement/Production

Shareholder Return

Industry Structure Encourages Mergers & Acquisitions

Operating & Price Leverage

Bullion Mining Shares

YES YES

N/A YES

N/A YES

N/A YES

N/A YES

Page 10: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Objective: Achieve exposure to gold related assets that have value creation potential independent of the gold price

• Investment thesis: Early-stage mining companies, we believe, offer the greatest potential for value creation and are often overlooked in the market; large cap mining companies provide leverage and liquidity; while a rising gold price should enhance investment results

Investment & Research Process

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Idea Generation

• 4 investment analysts

• Relationships (technical & financial)

• >300 meetings per year

• Site visits - 32 countries visited

• US$220B market cap. universe

Desktop Analysis

•Public information review

Valuation

• In-situ valuation

•Cash flow analysis

•Risk and Sensitivity analysis

Detailed Due

Diligence

•Site visits • Information

review •Management

conversations •Update

analysis and valuation

Execution

•Portfolio allocation blends industry and country risk and return

Value Creation

•De-risk assets •Dividends

from cash flow

•M&A Activity •Ongoing

Valuation Reassessment

•Buy/Sell

Page 11: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Gold and gold equities sold off during September through December as investors pursued momentum performance in broader equity markets.

• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013.

• Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning, weaker U.S. dollar, geo-political tensions.

• Gold equities in 2014 are benefiting from investors recommitting to gold exposure, favorable valuations, merger & acquisition activity.

• 1Q14 Gold mining profit and earnings performance was in general a “beat” as miners benefit from cost cutting focus and favorable exchange rate.

Understanding Gold’s Decline – Current Situation

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Page 12: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• The rationale for holding gold is still intact: Central Bank money printing, negative real interest rates, financial repression.

• Slow global economic growth – Europe, U.S., China – presents a long-term dilemma to Central Bankers who are trying to use ultra low interest rates to stimulate economic activity.

• Sovereign debt is difficult to repay with low growth while inflation becomes a more attractive means to reduce the impact from debt.

• Despite attempts to taper quantitative easing, any sizable increase in interest rates would likely destabilize any economic recovery or growth currently underway. And potentially, an increase in interest rates could lead to a renewed bull market for gold.

• Gold mining companies have cut operating costs significantly, closer to $1000 per ounce. Positive margins are aligned with the current gold price. Any positive move in gold prices would have a powerful impact on profits.

• We anticipate more mergers and acquisition activity in the sector which should support valuations.

Understanding Gold’s Decline – Going Forward

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Page 13: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Tocqueville uses its intensive research to identify investment sweet spots

Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Stock

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Discovery Production Development

Higher risk Lower risk

Valuation Parameters Geologic Potential Net Asset Value per share Price/Cash Flow per share

Market Cap./Au oz. Resource Enterprise Value/EBITDA Price/Earnings per share

Market Cap./Au oz. Reserve Market Cap./Au oz. Reserve

References to securities or investments should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Securities that are referenced may be held in portfolios managed by Tocqueville or owned by principals, employees, and associates of Tocqueville, and such references should not be deemed as an understanding of any future position, buying or selling, that may be taken by Tocqueville.

Valu

e

Page 14: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Not All Gold Mining Equities Perform Alike

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Source: Tocqueville Asset Management & Paradigm Capital

14%

15%

18%

-3%

6%

-1%

3%

8%

19%

28%

6%

17%

25%

17%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Page 15: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• The portfolio is built to balance risk and return – Significant opportunities exist in smaller, earlier-stage mining companies – >50% of the asset base, on a look-through basis, is located in North America

Portfolio

15

10%

45%

35%

10%

Typical Equity Allocation by Company Size/Type*

>$8B (Senior Producers)

$2B - $8B (Mid-Tier Producers / Large Advanced Developers) $0.5B - $2B (Small Producers / Developers)

<$0.5B (Early Development / Exploration Companies)

23%

20%

7% 4% 3%

3% 3%

3% 2% 2%

23%

Underlying Asset Base*

Canada

Mexico

USA

Guatemala

DRC

Burkina Faso

Turkey

Chile

Peru

Brazil

Other

*Please refer to page 23 for full disclosure information.

Page 16: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Gold $/oz Tocqueville Gold Equity Exposure Over the Long Term

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*Please refer to page 23 for full disclosure information.

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1 000

$1 200

$1 400

$1 600

$1 800

$2 000

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

70,0%

80,0%

90,0%

100,0%

Dec-

07

Feb-

08

Apr-

08

Jun-

08

Aug-

08

Oct

-08

Dec-

08

Feb-

09

Apr-

09

Jun-

09

Aug-

09

Oct

-09

Dec-

09

Feb-

10

Apr-

10

Jun-

10

Aug-

10

Oct

-10

Dec-

10

Feb-

11

Apr-

11

Jun-

11

Aug-

11

Oct

-11

Dec-

11

Feb-

12

Apr-

12

Jun-

12

Aug-

12

Oct

-12

Dec-

12

Feb-

13

Apr-

13

Jun-

13

Aug-

13

Oct

-13

Dec-

13

Fixed Income & Cash Equivalents Physical Gold Other Equity/Securities Early Development/Exploration Companies Small Producers/Developers Mid-Tier Producers/Large Advanced Developers Senior Producers Gold Price per ounce

Page 17: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Geological re-interpretation of prolific Quebec gold district

• 9+ million ounce gold reserve supports mining economies of scale

• One of the top successful gold projects of the cycle; six years after exploration & $1.0 bn of investment, Canadian Malartic began production

• Target of hostile acquisition and ultimately friendly merger with Agnico-Eagle and Yamana

• Osisko boosts 1Q cash flow profits to C$92 million amid record gold production

Osisko Mining Corp. - “A Fresh Outlook on Mining.”

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References to securities or investments should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Securities that are referenced may be held in portfolios managed by Tocqueville or owned by principals, employees, and associates of Tocqueville, and such references should not be deemed as an understanding of any future position, buying or selling, that may be taken by Tocqueville.

Page 18: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Annual Rhythm to Gold investing

• Seasonal Gold Interest Follows a Pattern

– Early in the year portfolio adjustment – Spring Asian buying – Late Spring/Early Summer lackluster

interest – Summer rallies for end of the year

positioning • Attractive values • Commercial inventory build

– Autumn correction / tax selling – Late year rally

Timing Isn’t Everything, But It Sure Helps

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-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Monthly Gold Price +/- Performance 1992-2014

Yrs of Postive %

Yrs of Postive % minus Negative %

Source: Paradigm Capital & Tocqueville Asset Management

Page 19: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Tocqueville Gold Equity Composite has outperformed the gold price and Philadelphia Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU) over the long-term

Performance

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-50%

50%

150%

250%

350%

450%

550%

650%

750%

850%

950%

1050%

09/98 09/99 09/00 09/01 09/02 09/03 09/04 09/05 09/06 09/07 09/08 09/09 09/10 09/11 09/12 09/13

Cumulative Net Performance Since Composite Inception

Portfolio Gold Philadelphia Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU) S&P 500 MSCI World Materials

Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, Bloomberg.

As of 4/30/14. Please refer to page 23 for full disclosures regarding the Tocqueville Gold Equity Composite. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Page 20: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Composite Net Annual Returns

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014

Tocqueville 18,5% -11,2% 21,0% 72,8% 52,8% -9,6% 28,8% 36,6% 12,0% -35,8% 88,2% 55,7% -17,4% -9,7% -49,9% 19,4% XAU 6,5% -22,5% 7,6% 43,4% 44,0% -7,7% 30,6% 12,5% 22,9% -27,7% 36,6% 35,9% -19,2% -6,7% -48,0% 10,5%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

As of 4/30/14. Please refer to page 23 for full disclosures regarding the Tocqueville Gold Equity Composite. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Page 21: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Composite Performance

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Gross-of-Fees Return

Net-of-Fees Return

XAU Index Return

Number of Portfolios

Internal Composite Dispersion

Composite 3-Yr Standard Deviation

XAU 3-YR Standard Deviation

Composite Assets

(US$M)

Percent of Firm

Assets

Firm Assets (US$M)

2003 54.3% 52.8% 44.0% 5 N/A N/A N/A $673 23.6% $2,854

2004 -8.1% -9.6% -7.7% 6 3.5 N/A N/A $641 17.3% $3,711

2005 30.3% 28.8% 30.6% 9 4.4 N/A N/A $820 17.4% $4,727

2006 38.1% 36.6% 12.5% 10 4.0 N/A N/A $1,113 18.9% $5,877

2007 13.4% 12.0% 22.9% 10 4.1 N/A N/A $1,256 17.3% $7,276

2008 -34.3% -35.8% -27.7% 10 2.1 N/A N/A $724 12.8% $5,657

2009 89.7% 88.2% 36.6% 8 2.8 N/A N/A $1,404 17.1% $8,199

2010 57.2% 55.7% 35.9% 8 3.3 N/A N/A $2,944 26.9% $10,944

2011 -15.9% -17.4% -19.2% 10 1.3 31.4% 33.9% $2,611 24.5% $10,641

2012 -8.3% -9.7% -6.7% 17 2.7 26.1% 26.3% $2,821 25.8% $10,945

2013 -48.4% -49.9% -48.0% 12 1.1 28.5% 28.8% $1,376 12.0% $11,447

Gold Strategy Net Returns XAU Index 9/30/98 – 4/30/14 374.5% 53.7%

Annualized 10.5% 2.8%

Please refer to page 23 for full disclosures regarding the above chart. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Page 22: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Gold equities are historically inexpensive relative to bullion • The gold mining industry is going through a period of self-examination and we

believe positive change is underway

Opportunity

22

Valuations are based on a gold price assumption of $1300/oz in 2014, $1400/oz in 2015, $1500/oz in 2016, and $1300/oz in 2017 and long term.

Page 23: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

John Hathaway, CFA, Senior Managing Director, Co-Portfolio Manager Mr. Hathaway is a co-portfolio manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund, as well as other investment vehicles in the Gold Equity Strategy. Mr. Hathaway joined Tocqueville in 1997 where he is a co-portfolio manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund as well as other investment vehicles in the Gold Equity strategy. He is also the portfolio manager of private funds. Prior to joining Tocqueville, Mr. Hathaway founded and managed Hudson Capital Advisors followed by seven years with Oak Hall Advisors as the Chief Investment Officer in 1986. In 1976, he joined the investment advisory firm David J. Greene and Company, where he became a Partner. Mr. Hathaway began his career in 1970 as an Equity Analyst with Spencer Trask & Co. Mr. Hathaway earned a B.A. from Harvard College and an M.B.A. from the University of Virginia. He also holds the CFA designation. Douglas Groh, Co-Portfolio Manager Mr. Groh joined Tocqueville in 2003, where he is a co-portfolio manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund as well as other investment vehicles in the Gold Equity Strategy. Prior to joining Tocqueville, Mr. Groh was Director of Investment Research at Grove Capital from 2001 to 2003. From 1990-2001, he held investment research and banking positions at J.P. Morgan, Merrill Lynch, and ING Bank. During the late 1980s, Mr. Groh served as a portfolio manager of gold mining equity funds for U.S. Global Investors and IDS Financial Services, after beginning his career as a mining and precious metals analyst in 1985 at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Groh earned a B.S. in Geology/Geophysics from the University of Wisconsin – Madison and an M.A. from the University of Texas at Austin, where he focused on mineral economics.

Team

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Page 24: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Ryan McIntyre, CFA, Research Analyst Prior to joining Tocqueville, Mr. McIntyre was an analyst and then associate focused on mergers and acquisitions in the metals and mining sector with Macquarie Bank. Mr. McIntyre holds a Bachelor of Commerce with Distinction (majoring in finance) from Dalhousie University and an MBA from the Yale School of Management. Coille van Alphen, Research Analyst Prior to joining Tocqueville in 2011, Ms. Van Alphen worked in corporate development at Cardero Resources. She gained investment banking experience through working with a leading public institution, Canada Pension Plan, and one of Canada's largest independent investment dealers, Canaccord Genuity. Ms. Van Alphen holds a MBA from the University of Western Ontario, graduating with distinction, and a BA in geography. Victor Huwang, Director of Gold Funds Operations Mr. Huwang has extensive fund administration experience in financial reporting, investor relations and portfolio management system development/implementation. He began his career in 1992 as a mutual fund accountant with The Boston Company. He joined Wisdom Tree Capital Management in 1996 and became a hedge fund controller. In 2002, he co-founded Venture soft International, a private equity portfolio management software firm. He joined The Bank of New York Mellon as a Vice President in 2006 overseeing NAV operations. He holds a BS degree in accounting/finance from Boston College and a MBA from the Hong Kong Polytechnic University with a concentration in China Business Studies. Liya Corona, Assistant Ms. Corona joined Tocqueville in 2011 as an intern and became a full-time employee in 2012. Ms. Corona holds a BS degree in accounting from Baruch College of the City University of New York.

Team

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Page 25: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Past performance is not indicative of future results. 1. Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. (the “Firm”) is a U.S. registered investment advisor which offers specialization in the management of family assets. 2. The Firm claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. The Firm has been

independently verified for the periods January 1, 2002 through June 30, 2006. The verification reports are available upon request. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis, and (2) the firm’s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite presentation. For a list of composite descriptions, please call 212.698.0800. Policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing complaint presentations are available upon request.

3. The Gold & Precious Metals Equity Composite (the “Composite”) consists of only discretionary accounts in the Gold Equity strategy which are at least $1 million in asset size at time of inclusion. Accounts meeting the Composite criteria are included in the Composite in the first full measurement period in which that account is under management. Currently the “Period” consists of the first full month. Prior to December 31, 2008 the “Period” was the first full quarter. The Composite returns are benchmarked against the total return of the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU). The inception date of the Composite was September 30, 1998. The Composite creation date was November 1, 2008. The Composite has not been independently audited.

4. The Composite results are time-weighted rates of return net of commissions and transactions costs, and have been presented both gross and net of investment advisory fees. The Firm values all portfolios monthly and records all transactions on a trade date basis. Dividend income is recorded on a cash basis. Monthly Composite returns are calculated by weighting each account’s monthly return by its beginning market value as a percent of the total Composite beginning market value. Currently Net of fee composite returns reflect the deduction from gross performance of an investment management fee of 1.50% annually reduced at a rate of 0.125 basis points per month. From October 1, 2002 to December 31, 2008 Net of fee composite returns reflect the deduction from gross performance of an investment management fee of 1.50% annually reduced quarterly. Prior to October 1, 2002 Net of fee composite returns deduction from gross performance of an investment management fee of 1.00% annually reduced quarterly. Annual Composite returns are calculated by linking the monthly returns through compounded multiplication. For each account in the Composite, net of fee rates of return are calculated by taking the previous quarter’s monthly advisory fee as a percentage of the account’s month-end market value. For each Composite, monthly and annual returns, which are net of fees, are calculated in the same manner as described above. Performance on this Composite has been calculated using U.S. dollars. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Performance results are total return, i.e. include the reinvestment of all income.

5. Composite dispersion is a measure of variability, which is often used in the investment industry as an indicator of risk. The composite dispersion of annual account returns is calculated from the measurements of variance from the mean annual account return on an equal-weighted basis. Composite dispersion is not meaningful for populations of less than five accounts. As of December 31, 2013, the three-year annualized standard deviation (using monthly returns) was 28.5% for the composite and 28.8% for the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index w/ Income.

6. The standard fees charged by the Firm applicable to the Composite are 1.50% on the first $10 million and 1.00% thereafter. There are no non-fee paying accounts in this Composite. 7. The benchmark for the Composite is the XAU Index. This index is comprised of 30 companies engaged in the gold/silver mining sector. It is a market capitalization-weighted index calculated on

a total return basis with dividends reinvested. You cannot invest in the index. 8. Market cap data is calculated by FactSet Research Systems and the equity mining stages for each market cap is provided as a general guide and defined by the investment team. The

underlying asset base is an estimate of the mine locations of a largest account in the Tocqueville Gold Equity strategy and is calculated by the investment team. Top 10 Holdings are also based on the representative account, and are shown as Supplemental Information. The portfolio is actively managed and holdings will change over time. Top 10 Holdings should not be deemed a recommendation to purchase or sell the securities mentioned. Holdings are based on percent of net assets. This information is unaudited and should be referenced for informational purposes only.

9. The Gold Equity portfolio invests in gold, which involves additional risks, such as the possibility for substantial price fluctuations over a short period of time. The portfolio may also invest in foreign securities, which involve greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. The portfolio is non-diversified, meaning it may concentrate its assets in fewer individual holdings than a diversified portfolio. Therefore, the portfolio is more exposed to individual stock volatility than a diversified portfolio.

Performance Disclosure Statement

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Page 26: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Appendices

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Page 27: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• We believe the recent market correction has set the stage for a powerful advance

Technical Indicators

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$200

$400

$800

$1 600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-16.2%

29 weeks, 4 days

Time to break old high

75.7%

-22.6%

-29.5%

-31.6%

68 weeks, 1 day

75 weeks, 4 days

139+ weeks

123.9%

166.0% ?

As of 5/12/14 Source: Casey Research, Factset.

Page 28: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• CFTC data shows net commercial position at the highest level since April 2001

Gold is Forming a Major Bottom

28

April 2001 bottom $255/oz

2008 top at $1000/oz

Feb. 2005 bottom $412/oz

2008 bottom at $712/oz

2009 top at $1215/oz

2011 top at $1900/oz

2012 bottom at $1540/oz

QE3

-350 000

-300 000

-250 000

-200 000

-150 000

-100 000

-50 000

0

50 000

100 000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

# of contracts Gold - Net Commercial Position

Source: Meridian Macro Research, CFTC.

Page 29: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Gold thrives when real interest rates approach zero • Financial repression is a macro driver of gold

Gold and Real Interest Rates

29

-1.5%

$1,284

-$2 000

-$1 500

-$1 000

-$500

$0

$500

$1 000

$1 500

$2 000

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

US Real Rates Gold

Source: McClellan Financial Publications, US Treasury, Bloomberg.

Page 30: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Gold remains inexpensive relative to U.S. financial assets

Gold and U.S. Financial Assets

30

19,6%

21,8%

4,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

1934 1982 2013

Market Value of Above Ground Gold/US Financial Assets

Source: World Gold Council; Federal Reserve. Ratios are based on US total financial assets of ~$194T and market value of above ground gold of ~$7.8T as of 12/31/13.

Page 31: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• A 1% increase in investment allocation to gold would swamp world supply – Incremental gold required is 42,800 tonnes of gold, more than exists in the known float1

– The inability to quickly produce more gold could place upward pressure on prices

Physical Market Constraints

31

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

Current 0.7% allocation 1.7% allocation

Tonn

es

Investment Allocation to Gold

Source: World Gold Council. 1 Assumes no price impact, a 12-month average gold price as of 12/31/2013 of $1,408/oz, and U.S. financial assets of $194T as of 12/31/2013.

Page 32: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• More gold companies are: – Instilling better discipline on capital expenditures – Offering dividends and share buybacks – Changing executive management in the best interest of shareholders – Undergoing asset sales

Industry in the Midst of Positive Changes

32

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$B of Equity Issued # of Transactions

Source: RBC Capital Markets, Bloomberg.

Page 33: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Mining costs are leveling off, as miners have the ability to adapt to a changing gold price environment

Gold Industry Production Costs

33

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E After Tax Cash Cost ($/oz) 209 210 253 311 363 413 552 738 661 814 987 1 108 1 100 980 Margin (%) 23% 32% 31% 24% 18% 32% 21% 15% 32% 34% 37% 34% 22% 23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1 000

$1 200

$1 400

After Tax Cash Cost ($/oz)

Costs reflect historical results for approximately 30% of annual global gold production from 13 of the largest producers; while 2013 & 2014 estimates are based on FactSet consensus estimates for the same producers. Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, FactSet.

Page 34: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Gold stocks represent historically low values relative to the metal

The XAU/Gold Ratio

34

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Bloomberg.

Inception of SPDR Gold ETF

Page 35: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

• Cycles end when the Dow Jones Industrial Average equals ~1 ounce of gold

The Dow/Gold Ratio

35

1

2

4

8

16

32

64

1915 1922 1929 1936 1943 1950 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013

Log

Scal

e

The Dow/Gold Ratio (DJIA Divided by Gold Price)

Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, Bloomberg.

Page 36: Tocqueville Gold Strategy...• Gold sell-off accelerated with tax loss selling in late 2013. • Gold recovery in early 2014 was on the back of an oversold market, portfolio repositioning,

Eric Tajchman - Directeur du développement

– 01 56 77 33 86 - [email protected]

Anne-France Gauthier - Responsable distribution France

– 01 56 77 33 88 - [email protected]

Jean-Baptiste Chambert - Responsable de clientèle

– 01 56 77 33 54 - [email protected]

Cyril Grinblat - Responsable de clientèle

– 01 56 77 33 89 - [email protected]

Eric Diby – Assistant commercial

– 01 56 77 33 93 - [email protected]

www.tocquevillefinance.fr

Contact Information

36