Thoughts on ITC Project Surveys: Now and into the Future Geoffrey T. Fong, Ph.D. Department of...
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Transcript of Thoughts on ITC Project Surveys: Now and into the Future Geoffrey T. Fong, Ph.D. Department of...
Thoughts on ITC Project Surveys: Now and into the Future
Geoffrey T. Fong, Ph.D.Department of Psychology
University of Waterloo
ITC-TTURC Project Annual MeetingPortland, Oregon—March 1, 2008
Country/ProjectYear
started Population % World
% World's
Cigs (Vol.)
United States 2002 303,295,254 4.55% 6.80%Canada 2002 33,052,864 0.50% 0.65%United Kingdom 2002 60,609,153 0.91% 1.20%Australia 2002 21,129,222 0.32% 0.40%Ireland 2003 4,301,000 0.06% 0.12%Thailand 2004 62,828,706 0.94% 0.68%Malaysia 2004 27,329,000 0.41% 0.37%South Korea 2005 48,512,000 0.73% 2.10%Mexico 2006 106,535,000 1.60% 0.90%Uruguay 2006 3,340,000 0.05% 0.03%China 2006 1,321,674,000 19.81% 33.90%France 2007 64,102,140 0.96% 1.10%New Zealand 2007 4,239,600 0.06% 0.06%Germany 2007 82,314,900 1.23% 2.30%Netherlands 2008 16,387,773 0.25% 0.30%
TOTAL IN ITC PROJECT 2,159,650,612 32.37% 50.91%
Bangladesh 2008 158,665,000 2.38% 0.30%Sudan 2008 41,236,378 0.62% 0.10%India 2009 1,169,016,000 17.52% 1.82%
TOTAL IN DEVELOPMENT 1,327,681,000 20.52% 2.22%
GRAND TOTAL 3,487,331,612 52.89% 53.13%WORLD POPULATION 6,671,226,000
Brazil 187,521,914 2.81% 1.90%Argentina 39,531,000 0.59% 0.71%Hungary 10,030,000 0.15% 0.30%
One-third of the world’s population
One-half of the world’s cigarette smokers
If Bangladesh, Sudan, and India join ITC, then:
Over half of world’s population
Over two-thirds of the world’s tobacco users
Progress of the FCTC
Unanimously adopted in 2003
Already ratified by 152 nations
Conferences of the Parties:
COP-1: Feb 2006 in Geneva
COP-2: July 2007 in Bangkok
COP-3: Nov 2008 in S. Africa
Research—>Policy
Over 120 countries must implement some kind of ad/ promo/sponsorship restriction/ban within 5 years
Over 100 countries must enhance their warning labels within 3 years
U.S.
Mexico
Canada
Uruguay
France
U.K. Ireland Germany
India
Bangladesh
Thailand Sudan
Korea
China
Malaysia
Australia
New Zealand
Netherlands
The ITC World
The ITC Surveys
Country Mode N (smoke rs)
N (others)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1 Canada 2,000
2 United Sta tes 2,000
3 United King dom 2,000
4 Australia 2,000
5 Ireland/ Scotla nd 2,000 900 NS
6 Thaila nd 2,000 1,00 0 You th
7 Malaysia 2,000 1,00 0 You th
8 South Korea 1,000
9 China 5,600 1,40 0 NS
10 Mexico 1,000
11 Urugua y 1,000
12 New Zeala nd 2,000
13 France 1,700 500 NS
14 German y 1,700 1,00 0 NS
15 Netherlan ds * 2, 100 *
16 Sudan 2,800 2,00 0 SL,NS
17 Banglad esh 3, 000 ? 1,00 0 SL,NS
18 India 12, 000 ? 2,00 0 SL,NS * The ITC Netherlands Survey will sample 1,600 from a large internet Panel and 500 using RDD phone methods
7
Warning labels
– UK (2003): Text only– UK (2008): Graphic– Thailand (2006): Graphic– Australia (2006): Graphic– Canada (2009): Graphic, Rd 2– Other countries: Graphic– China (2009): Text only
ITC Evaluation of FCTC Policies (Partial List)
Product policies
– UK (EU): 10-1-10 regulation– US/Canada: RIP– All: product; product x behavior Light/mild
– UK (2003) – Australia (2005)
Smoke-free
– Ireland (2004)– Scotland (2005)– England (2007)– US, Canada: sub-national– France (2007/2008)– Germany (2007/2008)– China (partial in 2008?)– Netherlands (Part 2–2008)
Advertising/Promotion
– UK (2003): Comprehensive– Thailand (2006): POS bans– China (2011): Comprehensive
Taxation
– Multiple countries (ongoing)
Illicit trade– China (2008): prevalence
Temporal trends of the ITC Project
Recruitment and partnership with low-income and low-middle income countries:
— Bangladesh, India, Sudan
Greater geographical representation:
— Latin America: Mexico, Uruguay; possibilities in Argentina, Brazil(?), Panama(?)
— South Asia (India, Bangladesh)
— Africa
We will soon be in 5 of the 6 WHO Regions (Sudan is EMRO, but Southern Sudan is really AFRO)
Where do we stand now in the tobacco control community and in global health?
Greater recognition of the power and value of the ITC Project from governments, global research community, advocates
Strong connections with important groups in Civil Society, especially Framework Convention Alliance and the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids
Explicit, direct linkages to governments: China, France, Malaysia
Readiness for support
Some exciting present and future possibilities
Europe: New workplan for the European Commission has just been issued. Wording is very nice for an ITC Europe Project.
China: Stronger linkages with advocacy activities (TFK); Chinese government may be moving more quickly in fulfilling their FCTC obligations (e.g., smoke-free). Huge interest.
Latin America: Lot of interest among countries; unclear about funding sources
Sudan: fantastic research team in Khartoum; would be the first ever broad-based study of tobacco use in that country; good opportunities for directly effecting tobacco control policies.
Some exciting present and future possibilities
Bangladesh: high-profile, high visibility project because of the WHO economic study in 2005; Bangladesh is the first country to ratify the FCTC. The first evaluation effort for their 2006 national tobacco control act.
India: for obvious reasons; need to move forward
Growing structures for dissemination of ITC findings (and those of others relevant to FCTC policies):
Labeling web resource: http://www.tobaccolabels.org
Funding for a product resource
Other web resource possibilities?
Funding Challenges
Four Country: even if we get the Four Country R01 renewal, we will be 300K short of the fieldwork starting in Wave 8
SEA: will be short of funding after 2008
India: need funding for the main study
Capacity at the DMC as well as at our major ITC Project centres
Waterloo has 1-2 postdocs: know anyone?
Funding Possibilities?
IDRC/RITC
European Commission
Bloomberg: growing interest (e.g.,Jim’s grant for Mexico; other possibilities in Latin America?)
Gates Foundation
Non-traditional funding sources
Tobacco Control Funders’ Roundtable