Thoughts from a Renaissance Man Trust in China

Thoughts from a Renaissance Man Trust in China

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Introduction 1

Trust in China 2

The global recovery – growth 6

Debt and sovereign ratings – EEMEA holding up well, Africa suffering 8

FX outlook 17

Country profiles 21

Contents

Charles Robertson +44 (207) 005-7835 [email protected] Mobile +44 7747 118 756

@RenCapMan Yvonne Mhango +27 (11) 750-1488 [email protected] Sofya Donets +7 (499) 956-4502 [email protected] Andrei Melaschenko +7 (499) 956-4508 [email protected]

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Renaissance Capital 28 April 2021

Thoughts from a Renaissance man

Whether you have trust in China or not, it is the leading driver of global growth. Since 2006, there have only been three years when the contribution to global growth from China has been beaten by the US. If you believe IMF forecasts out to 2026, it will not happen again. So our future, or certainly that of our investments, is in its hands.

This worries me. A few may not like how the Fed and the US Congress have run the world economy (including into a brick wall in 2007/2008). But at least they are transparent. They accept the role of global leadership (bar a four-year interruption) as seen in the US-led G20 bailout of the world economy in 2009. And no-one can deny they are highly sensitive to what financial markets are telling them about the US and global economy.

We cannot say the same about China. I challenge you to name more than one member of the People’s Bank of China (PBC) Monetary Policy Council and I suspect you’ve never perused a change in words from their quarterly announcements, as many do with the Fed minutes. To be fair, there’s not much to analyse. The central bank promise to follow “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a New Era” is pretty consistent.

Encouragingly, Chinese policy has actually helped the world economy out of two global recessions, but the precedent of the US in the 1920s taking over from the UK is concerning. The US was reluctant to accept its new role (so was the UK) and similar tension is evident with China’s rise. As China gets closer and closer to the Japan 1990 scenario outlined below, the risks of policy mistakes are getting larger, and the impact on the rest of us is bigger than ever.

Trust in China, perhaps too much trust, has also contributed to the debt problems emerging in Africa, and which we fear will engulf at least a few in Asia too. Again, China seems to be acting helpfully at present in ameliorating the problems from its excessive prior lending to some countries (Angola, Ethiopia, etc). But low fertility/high savings China is still lending money, sometimes for the wrong type of infrastructure to high fertility/low savings countries. External debt problems are accruing.

This is something global debt funds and low-income governments need to be acutely aware of. Yes, interest rates have fallen – and providing US treasuries stay below 2% – there is no reason a debt crisis should be imminent. But it is a real threat unless borrowing is focused intensively on building up export capacity. Over the past 10 years, external debt and export capacity have risen broadly in tandem, in Emerging Europe and most of Asia. In Vietnam, our top FM pick, the debt-to-export ratio has actually fallen – which should help it to win sovereign upgrades by year-end. But in the weaker Asian credits and much of Africa, the ratios have worsened very significantly. Industrialisation and FDI are needed, and fast. Where that can’t happen, because literacy and electricity are insufficient, governments need to rein in their borrowing (and debt funds, their lending) unless it directly addresses these blockages. The time when we can be relaxed about the post-heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) debt binge is now over.

What about the short term? There are some lovely growth rebounds to enjoy over 2021-2022, some cheap currencies on offer and steady industrialisation stories from Morocco to Bangladesh. Beyond that is the prospect of textile manufacturing strengthening Pakistan and Egypt through the 2020s and perhaps widening out to Ghana and Kenya by 2030. Smart policy by their governments and central banks could be good for debt investors too. In bigger markets, we think (hope?) Russia might be the past the worst point in US/Russia relations, while SA could surprise on the positive side in 2021. The Gulf clearly benefits with oil in the $60s/bl. It is just Turkey where it is hard to be optimistic before 2023.

Introduction

https://research.rencap.com/eng/download.asp?id=28396


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Our bullish sentiment towards EM in our November After the bleak mid-winter report has been replaced with uncertainty since the February sell-off began in US treasuries. The IMF World Economic Outlook highlights a better recovery in DM per capita GDP growth, than in EM, relative to the previous trend. Concerns remain about FM debt default in any country from A to Z – literally, with actual debt default from Argentina to Zambia. Meanwhile within EEMEA, markets have been buffeted with headlines from US sanctions on Russia to corruption / ANC wrangles in SA to Turkey’s changes of central bank governor (now more frequent than management changes in a premier league football team). We’ll get to each of these points later.

It’s China’s pre-eminence that jumped out in the IMF forecasts. Over the coming five years (from end-2021 to end-2026), the IMF forecasts China will add $7.5trn to its (and the global) economy. This makes it 50% more important as a global growth driver than the US which will add just $5trn.

Figure 1: China drives the world economy

Source: IMF

This is worrying. Today, the most important middle-aged men in the world economy are arguably the management team of the PBC. They are appointed in a one-party state. They have limited experience in working with financial markets and rule in an economy where market signals are suppressed1. The Monetary Policy Council’s quarterly minutes say the “PBC will follow the guidance of the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a New Era” which may be as irrelevant as ‘socialism’ is in that text but is concerning because of the words ‘Xi Jinping’. This is not a bank that explicitly recognises how paramount it has become in the global economy, but it is a bank that very clearly recognises where all the power lies, and it is not with the markets. China took decades before a more robust foreign policy grew out of its growing geopolitical weight; the world economy cannot wait for the PBC to take so long to recognise its economic weight.

The last transition of global economic leadership from the UK to the US went badly. The Fed did not act like a globally pre-eminent central bank in 1929 and its outdated thinking, shared with many others, about how to manage a global crisis led to an economic disaster. That this hurt the US more than the UK (which moved off gold first) doesn’t change the negative impact.

China’s economy has more in common with Japan in the 1980s, but is evidently more important. Every year, we say a “Fed policy mistake” is one of our top five risks for the world economy, and until now we’ve said a “China policy mistake” was a big deal for commodity exporters. This is no longer a tenable view. It is now a China policy mistake that is most important for the global economy. A US policy mistake might still be most

1 Yes, bitcoin enthusiasts and a few others might argue we have a similar problem in DMs, but they mostly don’t live in China.

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Trust in China


http://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688066/3688083/index.html

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important for financial markets, because the stock of financial assets remains heavily weighted to the biggest economies with the most savings, and the US will remain the largest economy until the 2030s. Perhaps beyond, but only if China makes a serious policy mistake.

Japan’s big policy mistakes began 36 years ago. It’s not a coincidence that we think China’s economic development is lagging Japan by about 34 years. Both countries ran high savings, high investment and high export models and when both eased controls on their currencies in 1971 and 2005 respectively, both currencies appreciated. Both were given larger weights in the IMF special drawing rights (SDR) about a decade later, and both became embroiled in a trade war with a US unhappy about the size of trade deficits it was running with both.

Figure 2: CNY and JPY since they ended their currency pegs (1971 and 2005)

Source: Bloomberg

While Japan allowed more currency volatility than China, there was not much divergence in their respective currency trends (lagged by 34 years) until a year or two ago. Unlike Japan in 1985, China has not responded to the trade wars and USD strength with massive currency appreciation. Rather the reverse. Even a decade ago (before any trade wars), Beijing central bankers expressed their anxiety to me about being bullied into this JPY appreciation scenario. China’s monetary policy officials believe JPY appreciation from 1985, leading to deflationary pressures, led to excessive interest rate cuts in Japan, which fuelled a late 1980s’ land price boom and the threat of inflation, which eventually led to interest rates hikes into 1990 from which Japan has never recovered. They saw this as a deliberate US policy to torpedo Japan’s rise.

Figure 3: CNY and JPY since FX flexibility

Source: Bloomberg

I think they’re wrong.

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The US had a huge overvaluation problem in 1985 – against all currencies. The USD bought twice as many (synthetic) EUR as it does today. It needed to halve in value against all currencies.

Figure 4: The US had a huge overvaluation problem in 1985 - the Plaza Accord was not aimed at Japan

Source: Bloomberg

We don’t have such misalignment in the USD today, although on the current account (C/A) it is Europe’s and Asia’s largest economies whose C/A surplus – Germany at $270bn in 2020 and China at $299bn – pretty well equal the US deficit ($646bn).

Still, if China’s productivity is going to continue rising faster than the US – we are likely to see real currency appreciation. China’s C/A surplus already implies the CNY is cheap. So either we get:

1) a stable currency and a fair bit of inflation (buy Chinese property), or…

2) an appreciating currency and stable prices (buy Chinese equities), or…

3) China has to export a lot of capital abroad to try and offset appreciation pressure. The $462bn overseas development finance, partly to Belt and Road Initiative recipients, from 2008 to 2019 is an example of that (buy FM bonds until

they default like Zambia’s)…

4) Or open up the capital account (e.g. allowing Chinese to invest in Hong Kong equities or property – buy HK equities/property) to provide another way to let Chinese savings out of the country.

In a best-case scenario, China may do a little bit of everything and avoid any massive policy errors. But every policy choice carries some risk of mistakes. Arguably China has already lent too much to certain countries – including Ethiopia and Zambia which have both applied for G20 debt relief. It has presided over stock market bubbles. Property bubbles (aka Japan 1990) are a constant concern. The global costs of any mistakes are only going to rise in coming years.

The good news is that China has earned some trust. China has already been the leader for global growth since 2006 in every year except three (two under Obama, one under Trump). The only serious mistake China might be held responsible for - failing to be transparent about (or to contain) COVID-19 before it went global – was not a monetary policy error.

Still it would be surprising if we could get to the end of the 2020s without a major policy error. Trust in China? We’ll see.

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Figure 5: China's GDP rise in $bn has been bigger than the US in nearly every year since 2006

Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital

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The IMF has had to torture the data to show that COVID-19 has hurt EMs more than DMs. Obviously headline growth failed to prove this – with advanced economies shrinking 4.7% last year, more than double the 2.2% decline of EMs. It’s not a great surprise given that advanced economies were prepared to enact repeated stringent lockdowns that smacked the service sectors that dominate in DM economies, while EM either had short, sharp lockdowns that were either successful (East Asia) or failed and were generally not repeated (e.g. SA, Pakistan)2. Their economies were generally less retail orientated, more agricultural (in FM) and therefore less sensitive to lockdown in any case.

Within EM and FM, SSA only shrank 1.9%, a figure only bettered by developing Asia down just 1.0%. The resilience scores for SSA that our Africa economist Yvonne Mhango developed last year have proved their worth, and our Russia & CIS+ economist Sofya Donets’ bullish stance on Russia’s growth in 2020 also came good. EM outperformance vs DM was not as strong as in the global financial crisis (primarily a western banking crisis), but still the numbers are fairly clear. Only Latin America comes out very poorly in 2020, which luckily for us, isn’t the focus continent for this report.

The IMF is emphasising that per capita GDP growth (which, to be fair, is the best way to look at growth, even if most of us rarely do) has been hit more in EM, relative to its trend. It is the issue of trend growth where data starts to get tortured, as whether a trend is sustainable is so debatable.

I suspect that one reason for this emphasis on EM suffering is that the IMF has been keen to justify the $650bn expansion of SDR. Whether wealthier countries will somehow pass on their expanded SDR allocation to lower income countries is, as yet, not 100% clear, but the expansion is helpful. Preliminary formal discussions on this were already held as of 23 March. Getting data together in time for those discussions might be why the IMF rushed so many of its forecasts. From Turkey to India to Rwanda3, the IMF’s April forecasts were already out of date before they were published.

Within our major markets, the encouraging story from a growth perspective is that countries from Russia to SA have not enacted long-lasting tight lockdowns in 2021. While the UK enacted a stringent lockdown from December 2020 to April 2021, similar to that seen in 2Q20, SA only did so for a month or so (and not as stringent as April 2020).

Given the stringency of DM lockdowns, from Germany or Italy to the UK, there is an understandably large focus on vaccines that might prevent these in the future. This is less significant for EM GDP where lockdowns have been easier.

2 Turkey is enacting another short lockdown from 29 April to 17 May and Pakistan has said it might if virus numbers don’t get better this week. 3 GDP was down 3.3% according to mid-March Rwandan data, while the IMF says GDP fell -0.2% in 2020. The IMF chief economist admitted the surge in India’s virus cases was not considered in the forecasts. The IMF report acknowledges that the Turkey forecasts were produced in “early March”, although some figures imply it was end-February.

The global recovery – growth

https://research.rencap.com/report/3237/

https://twitter.com/RencapMan/status/1363752846978674688?s=20

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/03/23/pr2177-imf-execdir-discuss-new-sdr-allocation-us-650b-boost-reserves-help-global-recovery-covid19

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Figure 6: Most of EEMEA's biggest markets should be vaccinated in 20 2 21 (data as of 5 April)

Note: Saudi Arabia figures are an estimate

Source: Our World in Data

In terms of our major markets, we suspect Russia will continue to beat consensus estimates for growth (Bloomberg consensus is 3%; we see 4%), as it did in 2020. Sofya Donets’ forecasts are in the country pages later in this report. Whisper it quietly, but we also think that US/Russia relations might just be past the worst. We do not expect good relations, but markets can do reasonably well if they are not deteriorating. The oil price helps too, as it does for the Gulf countries which are not a significant weighting in EEMEA and where prospects are looking a little better.

SA is also looking up, and since November, Bloomberg consensus has raised its 2021 forecast from 3% to 3.65%. Its short period of renewed lockdown restrictions in early 2021 helps, as does currency strength, as do higher commodity prices. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s public efforts to clean up and root out opponents in the ANC suggests we’ll be seeing better scores on corruption in the next year or two. It may be coincidence, but high profile FDI (Ford and Amazon) does help the mood music. If UST yields drop to 1%, we may have to consider upgrading our currency forecast from ZAR14/$ to ZAR13/$.

The big problem market is obviously Turkey, where Bloomberg consensus assumes a decent 4% growth rate in 2021 and 2022. Yes, the currency is cheap and the country could be thriving with the right leadership, but poor policy choices mean the boom-bust cycle is getting shorter and shorter, and ever more severe when it goes wrong. Turkey has benefited from a 20-year decline in global interest rates, but poor policy means its ability to ride that wave has lessened to virtually nothing. It is very hard to find an EM with a central bank policy rate above 5%. Turkey’s double-digit rates are reminiscent of the EM average in the 2000s, not in 2020. Meanwhile, the country has blown its reserves of bank deposits (hence the high loan-to-deposit ratio in the 2010s), arguably blown its FX reserves as well, and all that’s left is the government’s balance sheet, which is probably vulnerable to a host of unseen liabilities. And that’s just the known-knowns to cite Donald Rumsfeld, and the known-unknowns. Add in the risks from unknown-unknowns, and we have a country which will attract little portfolio investment, even though there will be interesting trading opportunities. The deep-value investor might buy anyway, and hope for political change in 2023.

For the outlook on growth in other countries, do skim the country pages where Yvonne Mhango has provided forecasts from Egypt to Angola, where Sofya Donets has done the same for Russia and its near neighbours, with our economist Andrei Melaschenko adding in Gulf forecasts for the first time.

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Unlike the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 or the oil crisis of the 1970s, the virus crash

does not require a re-think of the global economic architecture, although it will have

clearly accelerated the existing online trend.

However, it has pushed up debt levels around the world, and our base case is that this

necessitates permanently lower interest rates. Higher rates (e.g. US 10-year treasuries at

3%) would increase the debt burden far more now than in 2019, so would risk sending the

US economy back into recession and bring down US yields.

Figure 7: DM debt ratios have deteriorated more than EM or FM

Source: IMF

This is key to our assumption that US 10-year yields will remain in a 0-2% range for the

next decade – anchored by German yields around 0% as Germany echoes Japan’s

experience after the 1990 crash noted above.

Figure 8: Germany keeps tracking Japan, and anchors US yields - #chartcrime warning (different scales)

Source: Bloomberg

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Debt and sovereign ratings – EEMEA holding up well, Africa suffering

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Getting this call wrong would require a very big re-think about EM and FM over the next few years. Given the treasury sell-off since February, this is a significant risk. From the recent food prices surge, to the daily reports about companies raising prices, to the turn against austerity in the West, to the surge in Bitcoin prices cheered on by my son Jacca, inflation is evidently a risk. If the UST move ends up looking like the 2013 taper tantrum, US yields could hit 2.5% before the Fed acts (as it did in September 2013) to reassure markets that higher yields won’t be tolerated. That would make the next few months very difficult for EM and FM assets but still leave the long-term call intact.

The much bigger risk is that inflation does return in the 2020s. Our base case is that older people hoard their savings, and tend not to consume (new houses, new cars, new gadgets) like the ‘savings-short’ young wish to. The savings of the late middle aged in the West and Japan (and the rest of East Asia within two-to-three decades) are so plentiful that cheap cash is available to invest in new capacity which helps keep global inflation down. This process isn’t going to stop because we’re not getting any younger.

Figure 9: Your average age strongly impacts your savings

Source: UN

Also obvious from this chart is that savings are very limited in young countries. How many teenagers with big savings do you know? Local interest rates will remain high due to that savings shortage.

EM, especially older ones such as Korea and Russia, are in a better position to sustain lower domestic interest rates for the indefinite future. For this reason, we are not as worried by the rise in EM debt as some commentators, except where we see really poor policy choices (Argentina, Turkey).

FM debt carries significantly more risk. Until the total fertility rate drops below three children per woman – and for some countries the UN doesn’t forecast that will happen for another 50 years – there is a high risk of debt default. Borrowing locally is expensive, so foreign debt is likely to be taken on instead. We saw this end badly in Latin America in the 1980s. We saw many high-fertility countries avoid default in the 2000s only via the debt forgiveness granted to 39 HIPC. The problem is that even after default or forgiveness, while fertility rates remain high, there will always be a shortage of local savings and a strong temptation to borrow externally again and then we repeat the cycle.

Not all the countries in the chart below were part of the HIPC debt forgiveness, but many were. Debt was higher in 2020 vs 2000 in 14 countries and lower in 23.

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Figure 10: Most African countries, public debt as % of GDP

Note: A few don't have data, and we took out a few including SA

Source: IMF

So are we due another wave of external debt defaults in the 2020s? If US yields stay around 0-2%, then a wave is avoidable (a few of course will always default). When US yields were at 3% and EM dollar borrowing costs were more like 5-6%, FM dollar borrowing was often around 8-10%. If US yields average 1%, and EM can borrow at 3%, then FM might be able to borrow at closer to 5-6% over the next few years.

Figure 11: Falling EM borrowing costs (in $) will also pull down FM borrowing costs

Source: Bloomberg

So the US yield and global inflation call is huge. If we’re wrong on that, debt defaults in the 2020s may well engulf Kenya, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Angola, Ghana and Nigeria among others.

The next issue is whether the debt taken on will help produce enough export growth to meet the debt servicing requirements, even with the lower bond yields we expect. This is a much tougher call. There’s a good case to be made that while borrowing has funded infrastructure spending in lower income borrowers, it has also funded current expenditure that won’t help. Second, our work on electricity, and the lack of industrialisation across many borrowers supports the view that much of the borrowing has not gone into the most productive infrastructure - which we think is electricity for many. There are exceptions, including Rwanda’s borrowing (which funded export earning generation via investments in the airline and conference centre) and Ghana’s (which now has enough electricity to industrialise). Interestingly Bangladesh, which is one of the most successful lower income countries over the last decade, has not had to turn to external borrowing in a big way, because low fertility has allowed it to fund a large part of its investment in domestic currency.

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Trust in China? Its lending has been a significant boon to low-income countries over the last decade. It has been cheap, quick and a helpful alternative to either slower lending by the World Bank, or more expensive borrowing from financial markets. A great deal of infrastructure has been built that would otherwise not exist today. In the main, we see China’s role as having been positive for low-income countries.

However, Chinese desire to send money offshore has not always helped – particularly because too often the lending has more closely echoed the domestic investment China has done in the 21st century (airports, railways) than in second half of the 20th century (electricity). The Global Development Policy Center notes the largest recipient sector for Chinese loans has been transportation with roughly $120bn committed over 2008-2019, followed by extraction and pipelines at around $110bn, and with power at less than $100bn.

China lending has arguably been too far up the value-added curve in terms of infrastructure. Without sufficient electricity, there can be no goods to export along a railway line – and this has meant that Chinese built railway lines in Ethiopia and Kenya have failed to bring in the revenues they were targeting. Chinese firms and lenders have moved on and are now rolling out a number of railway projects in Nigeria. One $2bn railway project, not necessarily Chinese financed, aims to connect Kano to Maradi, a city in one of the poorest countries in the world (Niger) and looks in danger of being another one that will fail to deliver the dollar-generating revenues it will need to repay the debt. The Lagos-Ibadan railway may prove move successful.

Yes, there’s a chicken and egg argument about transport infrastructure and industrialisation4 – you won’t set up a factory until you can export your goods. But if you do it along the coast or navigable rivers, as the US did in the 19th century, or China did in the 20th, or Vietnam and Bangladesh in the 21th century, then railways can clearly come second to electricity. Only after you have an industrial base, exporting by sea, do you then invest in the expense of inland transport. Obviously, this can’t apply to Ethiopia, a few of the Sahel countries and Zambia as well as central Asia and Mongolia, Bolivia etc. But debt problems are not just confined to landlocked states.

It is easiest to be optimistic about Morocco, Egypt or Bangladesh, where education, electricity and fertility rates are good enough (or close in Egypt’s case) to be confident about industrialisation and exports rising in the 2020s. There is greater near-term (2021-25) risk in Ghana, Angola, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Kenya, and significant medium-term (2025-30) risk in Cote d’Ivoire, Benin and Nigeria, if borrowing is not spent wisely. Senegal is lucky to have big energy investments otherwise it too would be in this camp.

Among the three countries that have sought debt forgiveness from the G-20, I know too little to comment on Chad. Ethiopia’s problems stem from an unsustainable model that we flagged in 2016 (I had hoped a 2019 IMF deal could change that trajectory – but a weaker currency and other reforms have yet to be delivered). Zambia is the canary in the coal mine, a country which managed to borrow and spend a huge sum that failed to deliver necessary returns, and is defaulting despite a record-high copper price (its primary export). This is a concerning scenario to consider after a change of president in Kenya in 2022 and in Nigeria after 2023.

Below we show what has happened to gross external debt ratios relative to merchandise goods exports. The ratios would look better if we included services (far better in the case of tourism dependent Seychelles), so take this as guidance only. The focus is more about the change since 2010. My take-aways are to be reassured about DR Congo (the advantages of not being able to borrow, also seen in Zimbabwe), Nigeria (despite a 10-fold increase), and Cote d’Ivoire, as well as Namibia. But to be concerned about Benin, Kenya and Uganda

4 I’m just reading Rostow’s The Stages of Economic Growth and like China, he sees agriculture and transport infrastructure as key; I think we proved in our electricity report in 2018 that it’s power which is key.

https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2020/12/07/tracking-chinas-overseas-development-finance/




12



where the ratio has got much worse. None of these three have electricity consumption correlated with industrialisation – nor do Ethiopia and Rwanda for that matter.

Figure 12: For most African countries, rising external debt has not been matched by a similar rise in exports

Source: IMF, JEDH

The contrast with low fertility Asia is pronounced. That continent has higher domestic savings which have paid for sufficient electricity to industrialise. As a result, the external debt-to-export ratios have actually gone down for many countries, like Vietnam.

There are some problem countries. Obviously Lebanon, which is in default. Also Sri Lanka, which lost the chance to capitalise on its demographic dividend during the 1986-2009 war, and where debt and FX pressures are acute. Pakistan’s literacy rate is still too low, and its fertility rate too high (hence the external borrowing) – but should look better in the second half of the 2020s. Jordan is also in danger. Tajikistan is another sovereign that looks particularly weak and fragile.

Figure 13: Asia is industrialising – and so has much healthier external debt-to-export ratios

Source: JEDH, IMF

Note I’ve excluded a couple of financial centres, Mauritius (12,649%) and Bahrain (1,013%), from these numbers because by their nature their foreign external obligations are more a function of financial accounting, and not comparable to others. Lebanon is similar which is why it was so difficult to know exactly when that country would run into significant problems. I’ve also excluded Greece which as a Eurozone member is difficult to analyse in this way.

Industrialising Europe has mostly seen improvement in this ratio over the 2010s, while South America has worsened, leading to Argentina’s debt default and Brazil’s very weak currency.

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Figure 14: Europe and Latin America – gross external debt / merchandise exports

Source: IMF, JEDH

This feeds smoothly into our views on credit ratings. Rather than show every rating – we simplify them here, with -1 representing CCC+, and 6 representing BBB- (the bottom of investment grade) and 12 representing AA- equivalent ratings.

As we wrote in After the bleak mid-winter, EEMEA held up well in 2020. Just three countries suffered downgrades, and Greece even snuck in upgrades. By the end of 2021, it seems likely that Kuwait will get downgraded by at least one agency (possibly two). There is more room for debate on Saudi Arabia, SA and Turkey. Our economist Andrei Melaschenko thinks Saudi may avoid a downgrade because it now has a fiscal adjustment plan, and obviously higher oil prices help. SA has positive tailwinds this year, including the FDI noted above, the stronger currency and a very large trade surplus on a 12-month trailing basis. Unfortunately for Turkey, the change of central bank governor confirms that monetary policy will either be loosened too early in the short term, or tightened too late in the medium term or both. Bigger problems are looming for Turkey, and rating agency moves are likely to reflect that. We assume at least one downgrade in 2021.

From 2022 onwards, continued positive reform momentum could lift Egypt’s ratings.

Figure 15: Sovereign ratings in EM EEMEA 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Dec 2021E

Czechia 10.0 10.3 10.7 10.7 10.7 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.0 12.0 Flat Egypt 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 Flat Greece 11.0 11.0 11.0 8.7 5.3 -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.3 -2.0 -1.7 -0.7 1.7 2.7 3.3 3.7 Flat Hungary 8.7 8.7 7.7 7.0 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.7 6.7 6.7 Flat Kuwait 11.7 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 Down Pakistan 2.0 2.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Flat Poland 8.7 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 Flat Qatar 11.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Flat Russia 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.7 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 6.3 6.3 6.3 Flat Saudi Arabia 11.0 11.3 11.7 11.7 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.0 10.7 10.3 10.3 10.0 10.0 10.0 Flat (-) SA 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.7 7.3 7.0 6.3 6.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.3 3.3 Flat (-) Turkey 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.0 4.7 3.0 2.3 2.0 2.0 Down UAE 12.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.5 12.5 Flat

Source: Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates

The FM and CIS+ space is less benign. On the positive side, Vietnam is likely to get upgraded and Cote d’Ivoire has a better than even chance too. But downgrades are probable in Jordan, Kenya, Mauritius, Oman, Tunisia and in the CIS, Tajikistan.

There are quite a few more questionable calls. On the positive side, Kazakhstan is the most successful oil exporting nation in terms of delivering per capita GDP growth and has

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Gross external debt as % of merchandise exports, IMF and JEDH data via Renaissance Capital

2010 2019



14



a cheap undervalued currency and a positive outlook from Moody’s. Our lead CIS+ economist Sofya Donets thinks an upgrade is more likely in 2022 though.

The outlook for Romania is improving, or to be fair, becoming less negative, since my friend and excellent economist, Florin Citu, became premier in December 20205. One rating agency has already moved its negative outlook to stable, and naturally I’d advise the other two to follow suit. The rating agencies might be reassured that the EU is maintaining its excessive deficit procedure monitoring in place for Romania (a consequence of the profligacy of governments up to 2020). But we can’t rule out that one agency cuts Romania to sub-investment grade.

There are a number of other potential downgrade risks. Morocco’s fiscal rectitude in the 2010s is evidently in retreat, and while I suspect better vehicle exports and tourism from late 2021 will help fund higher spending, the rating agencies are evidently less sure, hence the rating cuts already seen in 2020 and 2021. Downgrades probably matter less for Morocco thanks to low fertility since the 1990s and its low local interest rates that stem from its very high local savings.

There is much to be concerned about in Nigeria in the longer term, but in the short term the higher oil price might help it avoid a downgrade. Sri Lanka already has extremely low ratings, but a downgrade is a risk. Georgia and Belarus both have two negative outlooks, but in recent months, from the removal of the negative outlook on Georgia’s banks, to the good fiscal outcome in Belarus in 2020, Sofya Donets thinks the news flow might allow both to maintain their ratings. While Uzbekistan has one negative outlook, we think the economy did so much better than expected in 2020, this will be returned to stable. Azerbaijan is interesting as the only country we look at with both a positive and negative outlook – we assume any net move will be flat.

Figure 16: Sovereign ratings in FM and CIS+ markets 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 By end-2021E

Bahrain 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.7 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 Flat Bangladesh 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Flat Cote D'Ivoire 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Up Croatia 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.3 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.3 5.7 5.7 Flat Estonia 10.3 10.0 9.3 10.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 Flat Jordan 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 Down Kazakhstan 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.0 7.7 7.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Flat (+) Kenya 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 Down Lithuania 10.0 8.7 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.7 8.7 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.7 10.3 Flat Mauritius 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 Down Morocco 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.0 Flat (-) Nigeria 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 Flat (-) Oman 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 9.5 7.0 5.7 5.0 4.7 2.7 2.7 Down Romania 6.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Flat (-) Senegal 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Down Serbia 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.7 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.7 Flat Slovenia 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 11.7 8.7 7.3 7.3 7.7 8.3 9.3 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.3 Flat Sri Lanka 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 -1.3 -1.3 Flat (-) Tunisia 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 Down Vietnam 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Up Beyond Frontier Armenia 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 Flat Azerbaijan 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Flat Belarus 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Flat (-) Georgia 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 Flat (-) Tajikistan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Down Ukraine 2.7 1.7 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.7 -0.3 -2.7 -1.7 -1.7 -0.7 -0.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 Flat Moldova 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Flat Uzbekistan 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 Flat


5 For an outline of PM Citu’s views, see our video session from March 2021 – it starts at around the 35-minute mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VRdnCI7LNM

15



The outlook in Africa is obviously far tougher. We have Chad, Ethiopia and Zambia

already seeking debt forgiveness from the G20, which is a much bigger deal than the temporary rescheduling of interest payments on their debt which the G20 recently agreed to extend until December 2021. The question we’re all asking is, who’s next?

Within the countries we follow in Africa, we’ve already seen six countries downgraded by at least one agency this year. We think four of these (Ethiopia, Kenya, Namibia and Mauritius) will each experience another downgrade, while Morocco and SA may get away without being downgraded again. We think others where ratings are likely to be cut include Mozambique (due to civil conflict impacting on its energy investments), Rwanda

(COVID-19 is still deterring travel and conferences), Tunisia (lack of reform) and with less certainty Senegal (also due to delayed energy projects).

There is some good news. Post-election Benin got an upgrade in 2021 and has a positive outlook from Fitch, and as mentioned above, post-election Cote d’Ivoire is likely to be raised too. By end-2022, it will be interesting to see if DR Congo might win an upgrade, helped by higher copper prices and the president consolidating political power after years of de facto power sharing with his predecessor.

Figure 17: Africa sovereign ratings 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 By end-2021E

Angola 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 -1.7 -1.7 Flat Benin 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.7 Flat (+) Cameroon 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 Flat Republic of Congo 2.3 2.3 2.0 -0.7 -2.7 -2.3 -1.3 -1.7 -1.7 Flat DRC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 Flat Egypt 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 1.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 Flat Ethiopia 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 -0.3 Down Gabon 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 -1.5 -1.5 Flat Ghana 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 Flat (-) Cote D'Ivoire 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Up Kenya 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 Down Namibia 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 Down Nigeria 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 Flat (-) Mauritius 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 Down Morocco 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.0 Flat (-) Mozambique 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.7 0.7 -5.0 -5.7 -5.7 -3.7 -1.7 -1.7 Down Rwanda 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 Down Senegal 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Down Seychelles 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 Flat SA 8.0 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.7 7.3 7.0 6.3 6.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.3 3.3 Flat (-) Tanzania 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Flat Tunisia 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 Down Zambia 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 -0.3 -1.7 -6.3 -6.3 Flat


As a final chart on the debt picture, we update the chart we included in After the bleak

mid-winter. This shows the interest costs of public debt as a percentage of GDP, and interest payments as a percentage of government revenues. It helps explain why Zambia and Lebanon have run into problems, and why others such as Sri Lanka concern us so much. Fortunately, IMF involvement in Egypt, Pakistan and Angola offer some reassurance for investors in those credits. Note, countries with relatively high domestic savings (e.g. India, Egypt) look safer than those without.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/debt/brief/covid-19-debt-service-suspension-initiative



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Figure 18: Public debt in 2020 - in terms of interest payments, and interest as a ratio of government revenues

Source: IMF

As a last word on the debt outlook – we would still refer you back to the debt pages in After the bleak mid-winter. Our views on the debt consolidation needed in Ghana for example are unchanged. Our longstanding views are unchanged that investors should hold a basket of hard currency debt out from Angola, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. We also continue to remain nervous about that recommendation.

Angola, 6

Argentina, 2

Armenia, 3

Azerbaijan, 1

Bahrain, 5

Bangladesh, 2

Belarus, 2

Belize, 3

Benin, 2

Brazil, 4

Cameroon, 1

Colombia, 3

Republic of Congo, 1

Dominican Republic, 3

Egypt, 9

El Salvador, 4

Ethiopia, 0

Fiji, 4

Gabon, 3

Georgia, 2

Ghana

Hungary, 2

India, 5

Indonesia, 2

Italy, 3

Jamaica, 7

Jordan, 4

Kenya, 4

Lebanon, 4

Mauritius, 3

Mexico, 4

Moldova, 1

Morocco, 3

Mozambique, 3

Namibia, 4

Nigeria, 2

Oman, 3

Pakistan, 6

Pe…

Philippines, 2

Romania, 1

Russia, 1

Rwanda, 2

Senegal, 2

Seychelles, 3

South Africa, 5

Sri Lanka, 7

Suriname, 5

Tajikistan, 1

Tanzania, 2

Tunisia, 3

Turkey, 2

Uganda, 2

Ukraine, 3

Vietnam, 1

Zambia, 6

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The USD is very close to its 45-year average against the EUR (see Figure 4). It is getting support vs the EUR from higher interest rates and higher US growth, but by end-2021 the Eurozone may be putting in a relatively better performance and FDI flows between the two may favour the US less than during the Trump presidency. So tentatively we put in $1.22/EUR for 2021E and $1.25/EUR in 2022E, but this is not a strong view. I think this remains an impossible currency pair to forecast.

We assume modest depreciation of the USD relative to EM because EM has higher interest rates, higher growth and cheaper wages which means they should attract more FDI too from 2022. Potentially these will be much cheaper wages if the US progresses towards a $15 an hour minimum wage by 2025 – or roughly $2,500 a month. Most EMs we follow have a minimum wage closer to 10% of that figure. We expect the FDI flows to pick up by late 2021, although in our space, both Ford (c. $1bn) and Amazon (c. $250mn) have already announced plans this year to invest more in SA.

Figure 19: Minimum wages in DM, EM, FM and beyond

Source: Eurostat, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates, multiple website

Some of the problematic debt rating stories (such as Jordan’s) are apparent in these wages data too. Jordan’s figure of $366 a month compares with Egypt’s $127 ($154 for civil servants expected in the 2021/2022 budget) which may be why textile jobs have been flowing to Egypt. Lebanon’s figure (which we no longer include) was over $400 at the official rate, which was not competitive with non-Gulf peers. Zambia’s wages are now too cheap, and will likely rebound once the country gets past its default. The TRY seems to take a hit every time it is strong enough to push Turkey’s wages above $500 (as they were in February).

Looking at our REER index though, Turkey has the most undervalued currency in EM – more than 30% cheap to its 25-year average. Turkey’s wages ‘should’ be well over $500 a month. It’s just that evidently President Recep Erdogan will not allow an orthodox monetary policy that would support this. Instead the policy stance he demands will ensure that Turkish workers get double digit pay rises in TRY, which in USD terms will be wiped out by currency deprecation. From TRY7.4/$ at end-2020, we assume the TRY will weaken to TRY9.0/$ due to double-digit inflation.

There is interesting FX value in Brazil (and has been for some time) which might be unlocked by hikes in the Selic rate. Russia looks like it has modest appreciation potential, supported by the C/A surplus and relatively high nominal interest. Fair value on our 25-year model is about 10% stronger than our actual end-year forecast though.

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eil.)

Mex

ico

(*)

Cam

bodi

aP

hilip

pine

sB

angl

(go

vt)

Geo

rgia

(T

bilis

i)R

ussi

aV

ietn

am*

Aze

rbai

jan

Tun

isia

Egy

ptP

akis

tan

Ivor

y C

oast

Ken

ya*

(gl)

Kaz

akhs

tan

Ban

glad

. (tx

tl)Ir

an (

para

llel)

Nig

eria

Zam

bia

Gha

na*

Eth

iopi

a (t

xtl)

Minimum wage in $ based on 22 April 2021 exchange rates - Eurostat and many other sources via Renaissance Capital, note data on right-hand side may be mix of gross or net wages (not so reliable)

Blue = EM Green = FM * = avg mix of min wages(txlt) = textile workers(gl) = general labourer

SA wages not competitive

India around $120-240

FX outlook

18



SA and Mexico represent the EM proxies for European and US investors, so to get them stronger than their long-term average would take a considerable rise in EM bullishness. This is plausible on the back of rising commodity prices pulled by China, but SA’s and Mexico’s interest rates are low which doesn’t help. If US 10-year yields drop back from 1.6% to 1% and commodity price trends remain helpful, we’d be tempted to revise our end-year ZAR forecast from ZAR14/$ to ZAR13/$.

On the stronger (upper half of the table), Egypt remains well supported by high interest rates. Some Gulf countries may need a little deflation (or lower inflation than the US) to bring currencies closer to their long-term average.

Then we have the long-term appreciation stories including China, Czechia, Korea and Taiwan. We don’t think overvaluation is the right description for countries where productivity gains over 25 years have been so much faster than in DM or the rest of EM. Further real appreciation is likely.

Figure 20: MSCI EM - REER table

Current FX rate

vs $

FX rate implied by long-term average REER

FX rate if REER falls to previous

lows

Date of REER low

Long-term average

divided by current rate

IMF 2020E C/A (% GDP)


Standard deviations away from

historic average

Yvonne's avg. REER estimate

RenCap Dec-21

forecast

One-year local

currency yields

Latest CPI (% YoY)

CPI (date)

China 6.49 7.95 10.0 Dec-04 1.23 2.0 1.6 1 2.4 0.4 31/03/2021 Czech Republic 21.4 26.1 39.3 Jan-96 1.22 3.5 0.9 1 0.6 2.3 31/03/2021 Philippines 48.4 58.6 81.6 Feb-04 1.21 3.2 -0.4 1 1.9 4.5 31/03/2021 India 74.7 89.4 124 Feb-96 1.20 1.0 -1.2 1 3.8 5.5 31/03/2021 Egypt 15.7 17.9 27.9 Jan-04 1.14 -3.1 -4.0 0 18.4 16.5 13.3 4.5 31/03/2021 Kuwait 0.30 0.34 0.41 Jan-96 1.12 0.8 8.6 1 0.30 2.0 3.0 28/02/2021 Thailand 31.4 35.1 52.1 Jan-98 1.12 3.3 0.5 1 0.4 -0.1 31/03/2021 Saudi Arabia 3.75 4.07 5.02 Mar-08 1.08 -2.1 2.8 0 3.75 0.8 5.0 31/03/2021 Indonesia 14,485 15,246 39,166 Jun-98 1.05 -0.4 -1.3 0 3.9 1.4 31/03/2021 Korea 1,110 1,164 1,814 Jan-98 1.05 4.6 4.2 0 0.6 1.5 31/03/2021 Chile 705 721 890 Jun-03 1.02 1.4 0.3 0 0.6 2.9 31/03/2021 Qatar 3.68 3.73 4.79 Dec-03 1.01 -3.4 7.1 0 3.64 1.3 -0.3 31/03/2021 Taiwan 27.9 27.9 32.5 Nov-09 1.00 14.1 14.5 0 0.8 1.3 31/03/2021 Poland 3.78 3.77 4.66 Jan-96 1.00 3.5 2.0 0 0.0 3.2 31/03/2021 Pakistan 154 152 176 Sep-01 0.99 -1.1 -1.5 0 157 7.7 9.1 31/03/2021 Hungary 301 293 398 Feb-96 0.97 -0.2 -0.4 0 0.6 3.7 31/03/2021 UAE 3.67 3.54 4.07 Nov-07 0.96 3.1 7.1 0 3.67 0.6 -2.0 28/02/2021 Peru 3.84 3.68 4.18 Jul-07 0.96 0.5 -0.4 0 0.9 2.6 31/03/2021 Greece 1.21 1.28 1.11 Sep-00 0.95 -7.4 -6.6 0 1.22 -0.3 -1.6 31/03/2021 South Africa 14.3 13.2 18.6 Dec-01 0.92 2.2 -0.4 0 12.5 14 4.4 3.2 31/03/2021 Malaysia 4.10 3.65 4.31 Jan-98 0.89 4.4 3.8 -1 1.8 1.7 31/03/2021 Russia 75.0 66.7 132 Jan-99 0.89 2.2 3.9 0 70.5 5.5 5.8 31/03/2021 Mexico 19.9 17.3 24.8 Apr-20 0.87 2.5 1.8 -1 4.8 4.7 31/03/2021 Colombia 3,691 3,137 4,307 Mar-03 0.85 -3.3 -3.8 -1 2.2 1.5 31/03/2021 Argentina* 93.3 75.7 165 Jun-02 0.81 1.0 2.3 0 46.4 35.0 31/03/2021 Brazil 5.44 4.05 7.68 Oct-02 0.75 -0.9 -0.6 -1 5.3 6.1 31/03/2021 Turkey 8.24 5.51 8.61 Oct-20 0.67 -5.1 -3.4 -1 9 17.8 16.2 31/03/2021 Note: Govt bonds/bills except: Argentina (implied forward), Qatar, Taiwan, UAE (Interbank rates), Saudi Arabia (swap rate). *Argentina's inflation data was unreliable for 2007-15 - we have constructed an REER series using 'shadow' inflation data

Source: Bruegel, Bloomberg, IMF, Renaissance Capital

FM currencies are a mix of pegs, Euro members and countries with multiple exchange rates.

▪ We do not think the VND is overvalued. Modest appreciation with the CNY is more likely. I’m beginning to think Bangladesh may in fact be a similar story – having moved from a largely agricultural nation twenty years ago to a country that seems firmly on the industrialisation path (albeit at least a decade behind Vietnam more).

▪ Croatia6, Serbia and Romania should appreciate in line with the EUR of Slovenia, Estonia and Lithuania.

6 Note Croatia is now on track for EUR adoption as of 1 January 2023.

https://researchadmin.rencap.com/eng/research/morningmonitors/showarticle.asp?article_id=134087

19



▪ The TND is cheap but needs to be because of the lack of reform in the Tunisian economy.

▪ The KES is overvalued, albeit less than the NGN, but for the KES alone in the London REER model, we derive its long-term average from 2010-2021 only, due to a very distorting inflation calculation change in 2009.

▪ KZT appreciation is in our forecasts.

Figure 21: Frontier, CIS and beyond

Current FX rate

vs $



lows

Date of REER

low

Long-term average





historic average

Yvonne's avg. REER estimate

RenCap Dec-21

forecast

One-year local

currency yields

Latest CPI (% YoY)

CPI (date)

Bangladesh 84.8 112 144 Apr-08 1.33 -1.5 0.4 1 2.0 5.5 31/03/2021 Nigeria 410 533 1,063 Jan-96 1.30 -3.7 -2.2 1 430 429 9.0 18.2 31/03/2021 Vietnam 23,047 27,834 37,160 Jan-04 1.21 2.2 2.4 1 0.3 1.2 31/03/2021 Estonia 1.21 1.03 0.73 Jan-96 1.17 -1.0 0.4 1 1.22 na 1.1 31/03/2021 Lithuania 1.21 1.03 0.62 Jan-96 1.17 7.9 6.2 1 1.22 -0.4 1.6 31/03/2021 Kenya 108 125 324 Feb-96 1.16 -4.8 -5.3 0 137 115 9.5 5.9 31/03/2021 Jordan 0.71 0.79 0.97 Jul-96 1.12 -8.1 -8.3 1 0.71 5.8 0.2 31/03/2021 Serbia 97.5 107 193 Aug-00 1.10 -4.3 -5.7 0 na 1.8 31/03/2021 Romania 4.08 4.40 9.19 Feb-97 1.08 -5.1 -5.0 0 2.0 3.1 31/03/2021 Ivory Coast 544 573 670 Jul-97 1.05 -3.6 -3.6 0 551 4.2 3.3 31/03/2021 Iceland 124 127 180 Nov-08 1.02 1.1 1.0 0 1.1 4.3 31/03/2021 Oman 0.39 0.39 0.45 Nov-07 1.01 -10.0 -6.4 0 0.39 3.3 -0.4 31/03/2021 Slovenia 1.21 1.20 1.11 Feb-96 1.01 7.3 6.9 0 1.22 -0.5 0.1 31/03/2021 Sri Lanka 195 194 251 Feb-04 0.99 -1.4 -2.3 0 5.2 4.1 31/03/2021 Morocco 8.91 8.84 9.38 Aug-12 0.99 -2.2 -3.8 0 8.88 8.9 1.7 0.1 31/03/2021 Croatia 6.27 6.21 6.98 May-00 0.99 -3.5 -2.3 0 0.0 1.2 31/03/2021 Senegal 544 533 590 Nov-00 0.98 -11.0 -12.8 0 551 5.2 1.1 31/03/2021 Bahrain 0.38 0.37 0.45 Jun-11 0.98 -9.6 -4.0 0 0.38 1.6 -3.0 28/02/2021 Mauritius 40.7 37.5 46.3 Dec-06 0.92 -11.3 -14.7 -1 0.7 1.0 31/03/2021 Tunisia 2.75 2.23 3.17 Feb-19 0.81 -6.8 -9.5 -1 2.9 6.6 4.8 31/03/2021 Kazakhstan 430 333 425 Jan-16 0.78 -3.6 -1.0 -1 410 8.9 7.0 31/03/2021 Beyond Frontier Lebanon 1,513 3,945 5,620 Apr-08 2.61 -14.3 n/a 2 346.3 157.9 31/03/2021 Moldova 17.9 22.6 38.6 Jun-99 1.27 -6.5 -7.0 1 17.6 5.5 1.5 31/03/2021 Cambodia 4,049 5,000 6,434 Feb-04 1.23 -12.5 -18.0 1 6.2 2.9 31/12/2020 Armenia 520 539 761 Feb-97 1.04 -4.6 -6.7 0 510 6.9 5.3 28/02/2021 Azerbaijan 1.70 1.55 2.11 Feb-04 0.91 -0.9 1.1 0 1.7 5.3 3.9 31/03/2021 Ukraine 27.8 24.8 45.3 Feb-15 0.89 4.3 -2.5 0 28.6 10.8 8.5 31/03/2021 Georgia 3.45 2.79 3.97 Feb-99 0.81 -12.3 -11.5 -1 2.9 8.5 8.5 31/03/2021 Belarus 2.57 1.67 2.71 Nov-11 0.65 0.1 -0.3 -1 2.75 7.4 8.5 31/03/2021 Iran (UNO rate) 239,500 57,547 111,650 Feb-04 0.24 -0.7 1.2 -1 na 25.0 29/02/2020 Note: Kenya's REER dates from 2010 only. Govt bonds/bills except: Morocco, Kenya, Senegal, Tunisia, Mauritius, Ivory Coast, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Moldova; Oman, Bahrain, Jordan (interbank rates); Kazakhstan (12M NDF implied yield)

Source: Bruegel, IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

Our long-term view is that high fertility countries in Africa and Asia have to run C/A surpluses in order to keep interest rates sustainably low. Cheap or undervalued currencies, as seen in Angola and Ghana make sense. Further nominal depreciation is likely in 2021 for each and also for Kenya and Tanzania.

Countries that run C/A deficits and have overvalued currencies are more likely to take on excessive amounts of external debt (e.g. Ethiopia), and run into problems which do eventually force their currencies weaker (e.g. Zambia). This is the future risk for Nigeria, and it is likely to remain in that position until the presidential election in 2023 and/or a change of Central Bank of Nigeria policy.

For Nigeria, it is worth explaining the difference in our London and Johannesburg REER models. According to our London model, the NGN is about 30% overvalued, which is premised on the 1996-2021 period when the oil price was in the low $60s/bl. It is closer to 5% overvalued using Yvonne Mhango’s model (2004-2020 when oil was just over $80/bl). We have a similar difference, for the same reason, with Angola and Zambia (albeit based on copper price averages for Zambia, not oil). When the oil price is high, I prefer Yvonne’s


20



model. With copper where it is today, Yvonne’s model (based on a period when copper averaged $6,274/tonne, rather than the $4,863/tonne average since 1996) is more helpful when thinking about ZMW undervaluation.

Among the main calls that stand out here are Ghana’s local currency bonds offering an 18% return for one year on a currency that is already 23% cheap. Only a default scenario such as Zambia’s would make this trade unprofitable if you are funding in dollars. Angola is similarly interesting, but the default risk is higher, as demonstrated in eurobond yields. However, both countries are helping themselves prevent that scenario by allowing their currencies to be this cheap, which is keeping their C/As close to balance or in small deficit.

Figure 22: African currencies - REER model

Current FX rate

vs $



lows

Date of REER

low

Long-term average





historic average

Yvonne's avg.

REER estimate

RenCap Dec-21

forecast

One-year local

currency yields

Latest CPI (% YoY)

CPI (date)

C.A. Republic 544 937 1,423 Dec-99 1.72 -7.9 -6.8 1 na 0.4 31/03/2020 Congo (Rep) 544 834 1,497,745 Jan-96 1.54 -3.8 -0.2 0 na 3.8 31/12/2019 Nigeria 410 533 1,063 Jan-96 1.30 -3.7 -2.2 1 430 429 9.0 18.2 31/03/2021 Eq. Guinea 544 684 1,110 Oct-00 1.26 -8.4 -3.6 1 8.4 -0.6 31/12/2020 Ethiopia 42.1 51.0 72.8 Jan-04 1.21 -4.6 -3.6 0 42 na 20.8 30/11/2019 Kenya 108 125 324 Feb-96 1.16 -4.8 -5.3 0 137 115 9.5 5.9 31/03/2021 Egypt 15.7 17.9 27.9 Jan-04 1.14 -3.1 -4.0 0 18.4 16.5 13.3 4.5 31/03/2021 Cameroon 544 594 689 Oct-00 1.09 -5.3 -4.4 1 3.0 2.2 31/12/2020 Botswana 10.8 11.7 14.4 Sep-98 1.08 -10.3 -4.5 0 na 3.2 31/03/2021 Gabon 544 584 653 Sep-00 1.08 -5.1 -0.3 1 na 0.8 31/08/2018 Chad 544 577 739 May-00 1.06 -8.8 -6.6 0 6.5 3.2 29/02/2020 Ivory Coast 544 573 670 Jul-97 1.05 -3.6 -3.6 0 551 4.2 3.3 31/03/2021 Mozambique 56.6 58.6 85.5 Sep-16 1.04 -60.7 -68.9 0 13.4 5.8 31/03/2021 Tanzania 2,317 2,359 2,956 Dec-93 1.02 -2.7 -4.3 0 2,309 2,421 6.0 3.2 31/03/2021 Namibia 14.3 14.3 19.4 Dec-01 1.00 -0.6 -3.4 0 14.0 4.6 3.1 31/03/2021 Morocco 8.91 8.84 9.38 Aug-12 0.99 -2.2 -3.8 0 9 9 1.7 0.1 31/03/2021 Senegal 544 533 590 Nov-00 0.98 -11.0 -12.8 0 551 5.2 1.1 31/03/2021 DR Congo 1,979 1,918 2,606 Jan-10 0.97 -4.0 -3.4 0 1,932 na 5.6 31/01/2021 South Africa 14.3 13.2 18.6 Dec-01 0.92 2.2 -0.4 0 13 14.0 4.4 3.2 31/03/2021 Mauritius 40.7 37.5 46.3 Dec-06 0.92 -11.3 -14.7 -1 0.7 1.0 31/03/2021 Uganda 3,606 3,321 4,268 Aug-11 0.92 -9.1 -8.4 0 3,443 11.6 4.1 31/03/2021 Rwanda 995 910 1,216 Feb-04 0.91 -12.2 -12.6 0 939 1,040 8.5 1.7 31/03/2021 Algeria 133 109 133 Jan-21 0.82 -10.5 -7.7 -1 na 3.9 31/01/2021 Tunisia 2.75 2.23 3.17 Feb-19 0.81 -6.8 -9.5 -1 2.9 6.6 4.8 31/03/2021 Angola 656 533 2,155 Mar-96 0.81 -0.6 0.8 0 457 21.8 24.8 31/03/2021 Ghana 5.79 4.45 6.92 Jun-15 0.77 -3.3 -2.8 -1 4.48 6.6 17.9 22.8 31/03/2021 Zambia 22.3 16.9 29.8 Apr-96 0.76 1.5 6.5 -1 13.40 24.8 25.8 22.8 31/03/2021 Note: Auction yields except: Angola, Egypt, Nigeria, Uganda, South Africa

Source: Bruegel, IMF, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital

Overall, the yield on FM local and external denominated debt is now a multiple of EM yield, and while this is supported by rebounding commodity prices, it is dependent on sentiment towards US interest rates. We are price takers in this environment, and vulnerable to negative surprises out of the US, or China.

For EM overall, we still think high prices of DM assets makes this an attractive asset class, but we recognise the danger in coming months from inflation, hence we remain uncertain, but hopeful.

21



Country profiles

Co

un

try

pro

file

s

Angola 1 AGO 614 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 23: Angola key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa1/CCC+/CCC EODB Rank: 177 (173) - Weak Corruption Rank: 142 (146) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 17 (15) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.9 3.5 8.5 5.0 4.8 0.9 -2.6 -0.2 -2.0 -0.6 -5.2 0.5 2.4 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 28.2 26.4 26.7 26.1 27.5 34.2 27.2 24.1 20.3 19.6 23.0 22.2 22.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 7,702 10,501 12,225 13,195 14,324 13,950 16,550 20,262 26,778 32,690 36,106 47,619 54,047 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 83.7 112 128 137 145 115 100 121 103 87.4 61.8 70.8 92.5 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.5 28.4 29.3 30.1 31.0 32.0 32.9 LPGDP per capita ($) 3,638 4,729 5,249 5,439 5,609 4,315 3,618 4,273 3,538 2,901 1,991 2,216 2,809 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) - - - - - 3,407 3,375 3,345 3,829 4,644 4,323 5,123 6,449Lending/GDP (%) - - - - - 24.4 20.4 16.5 14.3 14.2 12.0 10.8 11.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 34.8 37.9 37.2 32.0 29.8 28.5 24.5 23.4 27.3 25.4 22.4 23.0 23.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 14.5 13.5 10.3 8.8 7.3 9.2 30.7 29.8 19.6 17.1 22.3 22.3 13.1 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 15.3 11.4 9.0 7.7 7.5 12.1 41.1 23.7 18.6 16.9 25.1 18.7 10.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 3.4 8.1 4.1 -0.3 -5.7 -2.9 -4.5 -6.3 2.2 0.7 -1.7 1.2 1.8 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 4.6 9.0 5.0 0.4 -4.7 -1.1 -1.7 -3.0 6.7 6.0 4.7 7.5 7.2 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 37.2 29.6 26.7 33.1 39.8 57.1 75.7 69.3 89.0 107 127 111 99.6 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 39 52 66 71 67 59 33 27 34 41 31 15 19 21 TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 24 18 21 29 27 29 22 14 15 14 15 11 12 13 TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 34 46 42 40 30 11 13 18 27 16 3 7 8Trade balance (% of GDP) 41 18 32 30 21 10 13 15 26 19 6 10 8Current account balance ($bn) 8 13 14 8 -4 -10 -5 -1 7 5 0 1 0 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 9 12 11 6 -3 -9 -5 -1 7 6 -1 1 0 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) - - 1 1 1 -1 0 1 0 -2 0 1 0Net FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 -1 0 1 0 -3 0 2 0C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 10 12 12 7 -2 -10 -5 1 7 3 0 3 0Exports (% YoY, value) 31 27 7 -5 -12 -44 -16 23 20 -22 -54 30 10Imports (% YoY, value) -32 15 40 -8 7 -25 -33 8 -11 8 -25 8 10FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) - 28 33 33 28 25 24 18 16 17 15 15 15Import cover (months of imports) - 16 14 15 12 14 20 14 14 14 16 15 14External DebtGross external debt YE ($bn)* - - - - - 40 45 46 59 65 63 68 81Gross external debt YE (% of GDP) - - - - - 35 45 38 57 74 101 96 87Gross external debt YE (% of exports) - - - - - 123 163 137 145 206 245 234 228Short-term external debt YE ($bn) 3.2 3.1 3.7 4.8 3.9 3.9 2.6 2.6 3.3 2.2 1.7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3.8 2.8 2.9 3.5 2.7 3.4 2.6 2.1 3.2 2.5 2.8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 6.1 4.7 5.2 7.2 6.6 11.9 9.4 7.7 8.1 7.1 11.8 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na 11.0 11.2 14.6 13.8 15.8 10.6 14.4 20.3 12.9 11.7 na naTotal debt service ($bn) - - - - - - - - - 8.2 4.9 5.2 5.1Total debt service (% of GDP) - - - - - - - - - 9.4 7.9 7.3 5.5Total debt service (% of exports) - - - - - - - - - 26 34 27 24Total debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na 48 33 34 34Currency and monetary policyKey policy rate (% YE) - 10.5 10.3 9.3 9.0 11.0 16.0 18.0 16.5 15.5 15.5 16.5 16.5Broad money growth (%YoY) - - 5.7 13.2 16.2 11.8 13.4 0.6 20.4 29.9 24.5 - -Exchange rate (€) annual average 122 130 123 128 130 135 183 186 300 419 666 820 722Exchange rate ($) annual average 92 94 95 96 99 121 166 167 259 374 584 672 584Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - - Ba2 B1 B1 B3 B3 Caa1 Caa1 naStandard & Poor's - B+ BB- BB- BB- B+ B B- B- B- CCC+ CCC+ naFitch - B+ BB- BB- BB- B+ B B B B CCC CCC naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook*From 2008-2012, statistics based on JEDH creditor method. 2012 - 2019 data from BNA

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Transparency International, WJP, Bloomberg



22

Argentina 2 ARG 213 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 24: Argentina key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ca/CCC+/CCC EODB Rank: 126 (119) - Middle Corruption Rank: 78 (66) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 57 (57) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 10.1 6.0 -1.0 2.4 -2.5 2.7 -2.1 2.8 -2.6 -2.1 -10.0 5.8 2.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 17.7 18.4 16.5 17.3 17.3 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.7 17.4 16.8 16.9 18.6 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.3 6.5 8.5 8.4 9.2 9.8 11.4 10.6 9.3 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 1,662 2,179 2,638 3,348 4,579 5,955 8,228 10,660 14,543 21,447 27,426 41,817 59,812 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 425 528 580 611 564 642 557 644 517 444 388 418 435 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 40.8 41.3 41.7 42.2 42.7 43.1 43.6 44.0 44.5 44.9 45.4 45.8 46.3 LPGDP per capita ($) 10,413 12,788 13,890 14,489 13,209 14,895 12,773 14,618 11,625 9,890 8,555 9,122 9,391 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 204 295 387 508 617 838 1,088 1,640 2,243 2,737 na na naLending/GDP (%) 12.3 13.5 14.7 15.2 13.5 14.1 13.2 15.4 15.4 12.8 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 17.3 17.4 16.1 15.2 15.6 14.3 15.0 13.4 14.5 16.5 17.8 19.2 19.9 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 10.5 9.8 10.0 10.6 na na na 25.7 34.3 53.5 42.0 na na PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 10.9 9.5 10.8 10.9 23.9 na na 24.8 47.6 53.8 36.1 na na PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.4 -2.7 -3.0 -3.3 -4.3 -6.0 -6.7 -6.7 -5.5 -4.5 -8.9 na na GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -0.5 -1.6 -1.7 -2.6 -3.5 -4.4 -4.8 -4.2 -2.3 -0.4 -6.4 na na GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 43.5 38.9 40.4 43.5 44.7 52.6 53.1 57.0 86.4 90.2 103 na na GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 56 67 82 79 74 67 57 58 59 62 64 55 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 38 56 73 68 74 65 60 56 67 65 49 42 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 11 10 10 0 2 -3 2 -8 -4 15 13 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 3 3 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2 -5 -2 -13 -9 -18 -15 -31 -27 -4 4 10 6 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -5 -1 1 2 1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 10 9 14 9 3 11 1 10 10 5 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2 2 2 1 1 2 0 2 2 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2 1 2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 21 22 -4 -5 -9 -16 2 1 5 5 -15 na naImports (% YoY, value) 46 30 -6 8 -12 -8 -7 20 -2 -25 -14 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 50 43 40 28 29 23 36 53 64 42 36 na naImport cover (months of imports) 11 7 7 5 5 5 8 10 12 10 10 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 132 144 145 144 146 171 181 235 278 278 273 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 31 27 25 24 26 27 33 36 54 62 70 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 196 175 185 193 217 301 313 400 451 431 497 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 30 40 38 37 29 54 36 54 66 65 38 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 7 8 7 6 5 8 7 8 13 15 10 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 45 49 48 50 43 96 63 92 107 100 70 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 61 93 95 133 100 232 100 101 103 153 108 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 10.5 7.5 12.8 33.0 28.0 33.0 24.8 28.8 59.3 55.0 38.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 36.9 30.1 36.4 26.4 27.7 33.1 26.6 24.6 37.7 25.9 81.3 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 5.2 5.8 5.9 7.3 10.8 10.3 16.4 18.7 33.2 54.0 81.0 123 171Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.9 4.1 4.6 5.5 8.1 9.3 14.8 16.6 28.1 48.3 70.6 100.0 138Credit rating history Latest

Moody's B3 B3 B3 Ca Ca Ca B3 B2 B2 Caa2 Ca Ca naStandard & Poor's B B B- CCC+ Sdu Sdu B- B+ B CC CCC+ CCC+ naFitch B B CC CC RD RD B B B CC CCC CCC naNote: 2021-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Armenia 3 ARM 911 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 25: Armenia key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/-/B+ EODB Rank: 47 (41) - Strong Corruption Rank: 60 (77) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 2.2 4.7 7.1 3.3 3.6 3.2 0.2 7.5 5.2 7.6 -7.8 3.9 5.0 NGDP_RPCHPrivate consumption (% YoY) 3.8 2.4 9.1 0.9 1.0 -7.8 -1.1 12.4 4.8 12.8 -10.0 3.2 5.5 NID_NGDPGovernment consumption (% YoY) 3.9 1.9 -1.4 7.6 -1.2 4.7 -2.4 -2.1 7.4 1.5 8.0 -1.0 0.0 LURInvestment (% YoY) -2.9 -11.7 -1.9 -7.0 -2.2 2.5 -11.4 9.7 4.5 4.7 -9.0 5.0 5.5 NGDPIndustrial production (% YoY) 11.2 15.9 8.3 6.3 1.5 5.2 6.5 12.3 4.2 9.0 -3.0 7.0 6.0 NGDPDNominal GDP (AMDbn) 3,460 3,778 4,266 4,556 4,829 5,044 5,067 5,564 6,017 6,569 6,184 6,553 7,088 LPNominal GDP ($bn) 9.3 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.6 10.6 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.7 12.7 12.7 14.3 NGDPDPCPopulation (mn) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0GDP per capita ($) 3,052 3,356 3,508 3,686 3,856 3,519 3,532 3,879 4,200 4,557 4,233 4,242 4,773Bank credit to private sector (AMDbn) 904 1,210 1,523 1,690 2,069 1,994 2,288 2,478 2,896 3,368 3,941 4,374 4,812 NGSD_NGDPBank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 26.1 32.0 35.7 37.1 42.9 39.5 45.1 44.5 48.1 51.3 63.7 66.7 67.9Deposits (AMDbn) 680 997 1203 1595 1741 1927 2378 2565 2897 3509 3685 4053 4540 PCPIPCHLoan-to-deposit ratio 132.9 121.3 126.6 106.0 118.8 103.5 96.2 96.6 99.9 96.0 106.9 107.9 106.0 PCPIEPCHPricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.2 2.4 4.0 5.8 3.0 3.7 -1.4 1.0 2.5 1.4 1.2 5.2 3.0 GGXCNL_NGDPCPI (end-year % YoY) 9.4 3.2 3.2 5.6 4.6 -0.1 -1.1 2.6 1.8 0.7 3.7 4 3 GGXONLB_NGDPNominal wages (monthly), AMD 102,652 108,092 113,163 146,524 158,580 171,615 174,445 177,817 172,727 182,673 187,240 197,538 208,995 GGXWDG_NGDPWage rates (% YoY, nominal) 6.9 5.3 4.7 29.5 8.2 8.2 1.6 1.9 -2.9 5.8 2.5 5.5 5.8Fiscal balance 1 TXG_FOB_USDState budget balance (% of GDP) 3 -5.0 -2.8 -1.4 -1.6 -1.9 -4.8 -5.5 -4.8 -1.8 -1.0 -5.2 -2.1 -2.0 TMG_CIF_USDTotal public debt (% of GDP) 34.1 35.9 35.7 36.3 39.4 44.1 51.9 53.7 51.2 49.9 61.8 63.6 62.8External balanceExports ($bn) 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.5 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.3 BCAImports ($bn) 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.7 4.4 4.9 4.2 4.5 4.8 BCA_NGDPDTrade balance ($bn) -2.0 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.8 -1.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5Trade balance (% of GDP) -22 -21 -20 -19 -17 -12 -10 -13 -15 -14 -10 -11 -10Current account balance ($bn) -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0Current account balance (% of GDP) -13.6 -10.4 -10.0 -7.3 -7.8 -2.7 -1.0 -1.5 -6.9 -7.2 -6.3 -7.1 -7.0Net FDI ($bn) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3Net FDI (% of GDP) 5.4 4.3 4.5 2.8 3.3 1.5 2.5 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.1Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -8.2 -6.2 -5.5 -4.5 -4.5 -1.2 1.5 0.4 -4.9 -5.6 -4.7 -5.5 -4.9Exports (% YoY, value) 58 17 5 9 3 -6 15 27 12 19 -3 6 8Imports (% YoY, value) 13 8 3 3 -1 -23 2 31 17 12 -14 8 6Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.9Import cover(months of merchandise imports) 7.0 6.7 6.1 7.4 5.0 7.6 9.3 7.5 6.2 7.0 6.3 6.4 7.3Debt indicatorsGross external debt year-end ($bn) 6.3 7.4 7.7 8.7 8.5 8.9 10.0 10.5 10.9 12.3 12.9 13.0 13.3Gross external debt (% of GDP) 68.1 73.2 72.3 78.5 73.6 84.5 94.4 91.3 87.6 90.3 102 102 92.9Gross external debt (% of exports) 540 544 534 559 528 584 565 470 434 413 446 425 402Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (% YoY) 11.8 23.7 19.5 14.8 8.3 10.8 17.5 18.5 7.4 11.2 10.0 12.0 10.0Refinancing rate year-end (%) 7.25 8.00 8.00 7.75 8.50 8.75 6.25 6.00 6.00 5.50 5.25 5.50 5.50Exchange rate (AMD/EUR) year-end 485 500 533 553 574 525 510 580 556 537 596 627 625Exchange rate (AMD/EUR) annual avg 496 519 517 544 553 531 532 545 570 538 556 628 614Exchange rate (AMD/$) year-end 363 386 404 403 474 484 485 483 485 479 501 510 500Exchange rate (AMD/$) annual average 374 373 402 410 416 478 480 483 483 480 487 515 495Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - Ba2 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B1 B1 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ B+ BB- B+ B+ na

Source: Armenia Statistics, Central Bank of Armenia, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Armenia, Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Azerbaijan 4 AZE 912 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 26: Azerbaijan key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB+/BB+ EODB Rank: 34 (25) - Strong Corruption Rank: 129 (126) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) - RenCap forecast 4.8 -1.6 2.2 5.8 2.8 1.1 -3.1 0.1 1.4 2.2 -4.3 3.5 2.2 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 18.1 20.3 22.3 25.7 27.5 27.9 25.7 24.4 20.0 20.1 17.4 17.2 16.8 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 6.5 5.8 5.7 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 42.5 52.1 54.0 57.7 59.0 54.4 60.4 70.1 79.8 81.7 72.4 79.3 83.8 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 52.9 65.9 68.8 73.6 75.3 52.8 37.5 40.7 47.0 48.1 42.6 46.6 49.3 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.5 LPGDP per capita ($) 5,803 7,141 7,350 7,767 7,845 5,445 3,822 4,113 4,711 4,775 4,211 4,508 4,707 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 9 10 12 15 19 22 16 12 13 15 15 15 17Lending/GDP (%) 21.6 18.9 22.7 26.7 31.4 40.0 27.2 16.8 16.3 18.7 20.1 19.2 20.0Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 44.1 46.3 43.8 42.2 40.5 27.3 22.1 27.3 30.6 28.4 15.8 17.7 16.1 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.7 7.8 1.1 2.4 1.4 4.0 12.4 13.0 2.3 2.7 2.8 3.6 4.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.0 5.6 -0.3 3.7 -0.1 6.9 15.7 7.9 1.6 2.4 2.6 4.0 4.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 13.8 10.9 3.7 1.6 2.7 -4.8 -1.1 -1.4 5.5 8.2 -6.4 -5.2 -2.3 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 13.8 10.9 3.8 1.7 2.9 -4.4 -0.7 -0.8 6.2 8.9 -5.7 -4.5 -1.6 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 5.0 5.0 5.8 6.2 8.5 18.0 20.6 22.5 18.7 17.7 20.7 21.5 21.0 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 15 26 34 32 32 28 16 13 15 21 20 14 19 20 TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 6 7 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 11 11 10 11 12 TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 20 24 22 21 19 6 4 6 10 9 4 8 8Trade balance (% of GDP) 37 37 32 29 25 11 11 15 21 18 8 17 16Current account balance ($bn) 15 17 15 12 10 0 -1 2 6 4 -1 4 4 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 28 26 22 17 14 0 -4 4 13 9 -1 8 7 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 3 4 4 5 6 4 5 3 2 2 3 2 2Net FDI (% of GDP) 6 6 6 7 8 8 13 8 5 4 7 4 4C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 34 32 28 23 22 8 9 12 18 13 6 12 11Exports (% YoY, value) 25 30 -6 -2 -11 -45 -15 15 37 -4 -31 39 4Imports (% YoY, value) 7 51 1 1 -10 5 -8 0 21 3 -10 12 7FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 6 10 11 15 16 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8Import cover (months of imports) 12 12 13 18 20 9 9 9 7 7 8 8 8External Debt ST external debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn)* 7 8 11 11 12 13 15 15 16 16 16 17 18Gross external debt YE (% of GDP) 14 12 16 14 16 25 39 38 34 33 38 36 37Gross external debt YE (% of exports) 27 22 33 33 43 85 110 101 78 80 116 89 90Short-term external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 2 3 4 4 5 7 4 3 3 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 6 4 7 9 11 17 20 10 8 8 9 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 25 15 20 18 20 37 40 23 24 21 18 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 2 2 3 2 4 5 5 6 4 4 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 2 3 4 6 7 12 13 15 13 11 13 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 6 11 11 13 12 26 27 33 40 31 26 na naCurrency and monetary policyKey policy rate (% YE) 3.0 5.3 5.0 4.8 3.5 3.0 15.0 15.0 9.8 7.5 6.3 7.0 7.0Broad money growth (%YoY) 24.3 32.1 20.7 15.0 11.8 -1.3 -1.9 9.0 5.7 20.0 1.1 0.0 5.0Exchange rate (€) annual average 1.07 1.10 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.14 1.78 1.94 2.00 1.90 1.94 2.10 2.13Exchange rate ($) annual average 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.78 1.03 1.61 1.72 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Transparency International, WJP, BloombergShort-term external debt from JEDH, using creditor method



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Bahrain 5 BHR 419 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 27: Bahrain key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2u/B+/B+ EODB Rank: 43 (62) - Strong Corruption Rank: 78 (77) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP, % YoY 4.3 2.0 3.7 5.4 4.4 2.5 3.6 4.3 1.7 2.0 -5.4 3.3 3.1 NGDP_RPCHNominal GDP, BHDbn 9.7 10.8 11.6 12.2 12.6 11.7 12.1 13.3 14.2 14.5 12.7 14.1 14.6 NID_NGDPNominal GDP, $bn 25.7 28.8 30.7 32.5 33.4 31.1 32.2 35.5 37.7 38.5 33.9 37.5 38.9 LURPopulation, mn 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 NGDPGDP per capita, $ 20,828 24,080 25,434 25,965 25,398 22,659 22,641 23,632 25,051 25,930 22,402 24,294 24,719 NGDPDGross national saving (% of GDP) 30.3 31.2 36.5 33.3 31.4 24.2 25.1 28.9 28.5 31.0 24.9 29.9 29.9 LPUnemployment rate, % 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 4.1 na na NGDPDPCCredit to private sector, BHDbn 5.4 6.2 6.7 7.0 6.9 7.5 7.8 8.4 9.3 9.4 10.0 na naCredit to private sector, % of GDP 56.0 57.5 57.5 57.2 55.2 64.7 64.1 62.7 65.4 65.2 78.8 na naDeposits, BHDbn 7.4 7.6 8.0 8.7 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.3 11.5 12.2 na na NGSD_NGDPLoan-to-deposit ratio 72.8 81.5 83.3 80.4 74.8 79.3 80.7 83.1 89.7 81.9 82.0 na naPrices PCPIPCHCPI, % YoY annual average 2.0 -0.3 2.8 3.3 2.6 1.8 2.8 1.4 2.1 1.0 -2.3 1.5 2.1 PCPIEPCHCPI, % YoY year-end 1.0 0.2 2.6 4.0 2.5 0.8 2.3 1.3 2.0 1.2 -1.6 2.3 2.1Fiscal balance GGXCNL_NGDPBudget balance, % of GDP -9.7 -5.1 -6.0 -8.9 -3.5 -18.3 -17.4 -14.0 -11.8 -9.0 -18.3 -9.1 -9.4 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt, % of GDP 30.0 32.8 36.2 43.9 44.4 66.2 81.3 88.1 95.0 102 133 129 134 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal balanceMerchandise exports, $bn 3 14 20 20 21 23 16 13 15 18 18 14 na na TXG_FOB_USDMerchandise imports, $bn 12 11 12 13 14 20 16 14 16 19 17 14 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance, $bn 2 8 7 7 4 1 -1 -1 -1 1 0 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 10 26 21 22 11 3 -2 -2 -2 2 0 na naCurrent account balance, $bn 1 3 3 2 2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 BCACurrent account balance, % of GDP 3 9 8 7 5 -2 -5 -4 -6 -2 -10 -4 -4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI, $bn 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 2 1 1 na naNet FDI, % of GDP 1 3 3 3 5 0 1 4 4 4 3 na naCurrent account balance plus FDI, % of GDP 4 11 11 10 9 -2 -4 0 -2 2 -7 na naExports, % YoY 15 44 1 6 12 -30 -23 20 19 -1 -22 na naImports, % YoY 16 8 9 3 45 -21 -13 18 19 -10 -18 na naInternational reserves, $bn 5 5 5 5 6 3 2 3 2 4 2 na naImport cover, months of imports 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 3 2 na naDebt indicatorsGross external debt, $bn 43 42 45 49 51 54 59 65 77 87 86 na naGross external debt, % of GDP 167 147 146 150 154 174 184 184 205 226 255 na naGross external debt, % of exports 316 216 227 234 220 328 464 425 423 482 616 na naInterest & exchange rates IMF forecastsBroad money supply, % YoY 10.51 3.40 4.05 8.20 6.51 2.95 1.24 4.20 2.37 11.13 6.54 na naKey interest rate, % year-end 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.75 2.75 2.25 1.00 na naExchange rate, BHD/EUR year-end 0.50 0.49 0.50 0.52 0.46 0.41 0.40 0.45 0.43 0.42 0.46 0.46 0.46Exchange rate, BHD/EUR annual average 0.50 0.53 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.42 0.42 0.43 0.45 0.42 0.43 0.45 0.46Exchange rate, BHD/$ year-end 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38Exchange rate, BHD/$ annual average 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38Credit rating history LatestMoody's A3 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Ba2 B1 B2 B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's A BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB- B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naFitch A BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB+ BB- BB- B+ B+ na

Source: CBB, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Bangladesh 6 BGD 513 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 28: Bangladesh key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 168 (176) - Weak Corruption Rank: 146 (146) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 14 (15) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.6 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.9 8.2 3.8 5.0 7.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 26.2 27.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.7 30.5 31.2 31.6 27.7 31.2 31.4 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 7,975 9,158 10,552 11,989 13,437 15,158 17,329 19,758 22,505 25,425 27,750 30,795 34,922 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 115 129 133 150 173 195 221 250 273 302 329 353 391 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 148 149 151 153 155 156 158 160 161 163 165 166 168 LPGDP per capita ($) 781 862 883 982 1,119 1,249 1,402 1,564 1,694 1,855 1,998 2,122 2,331 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 3,267 3,890 4,537 5,011 5,877 6,731 7,846 9,402 10,564 11,521 12,420 na naLending/GDP (%) 41.0 42.5 43.0 41.8 43.7 44.4 45.3 47.6 46.9 45.3 44.8 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 29.4 28.9 29.9 30.5 29.2 29.0 31.3 29.8 27.4 29.1 26.3 31.5 29.7 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 6.8 10.9 8.9 6.8 7.3 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.6 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 9.6 11.1 5.5 8.0 7.0 6.3 5.5 5.9 5.5 5.5 6.0 5.7 5.6 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.7 -3.6 -3.0 -3.4 -3.1 -4.0 -3.4 -3.3 -4.6 -5.4 -5.5 -6.0 -5.5 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -0.8 -1.9 -1.1 -1.4 -1.0 -1.9 -1.5 -1.6 -2.8 -3.5 -3.4 -3.8 -3.2 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 35.5 36.6 36.2 35.8 35.3 33.7 33.3 33.4 34.6 35.7 38.9 40.2 40.2 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 14 16 23 22 26 28 30 30 31 34 36 34 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 22 28 36 34 37 42 39 41 48 55 55 53 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -11 -13 -12 -12 -13 -9 -11 -16 -22 -19 -19 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -10 -10 -9 -8 -8 -5 -5 -7 -8 -6 -6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 3 -2 0 2 1 3 4 -1 -10 -5 -5 1 -7 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 3 -2 0 2 1 2 2 -1 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 4 -1 1 3 2 3 3 0 -2 -1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 15 40 -4 16 10 5 1 4 8 6 -6 na naImports (% YoY, value) 27 30 -6 10 11 -5 5 16 16 0 -5 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 11 9 12 18 22 27 32 33 31 32 42 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5 3 4 6 6 8 9 8 7 7 10 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 23 22 26 32 35 38 41 50 56 60 66 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 20 17 19 21 20 20 19 20 20 20 20 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 140 97 117 123 122 128 137 160 164 168 198 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 2 4 3 7 8 11 9 10 10 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 1 1 8 14 12 22 26 34 27 27 28 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 2 3 14 21 16 25 25 33 29 30 23 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 6 4 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 7 7 7 7 7 5 6 7 8 16 12 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 10 18 13 11 9 6 6 7 9 18 9 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 5.5 7.3 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.0 5.3 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 21.1 16.9 17.0 14.8 15.6 14.9 16.7 13.7 11.5 11.9 13.1 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 92 99 102 106 103 86 87 89 97 94 96 107 111Exchange rate ($) annual average 69 71 79 80 78 78 78 79 82 84 84 87 89Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naFitch - - - - BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Belarus 7 BLR 913 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 29: Belarus key economic indicators - RenCap forecastRatings (M/S&P/F) B3u/B/B EODB Rank: 49 (37) - Strong Corruption Rank: 63 (66) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 38 (38) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.8 5.6 1.7 1.0 1.7 -3.8 -2.5 2.5 3.1 1.2 -0.9 1.8 2.0 NGDP_RPCHNominal GDP (BYN bn) 17.0 30.7 54.8 67.1 80.6 89.9 94.9 105.7 122.3 132.0 147.0 159.2 170.3 NID_NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 57.2 61.4 65.7 75.4 79.0 56.2 47.7 54.8 60.0 63.1 60.1 58.4 61.2 LURPopulation (mn) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 NGDPGDP per capita ($) 6,033 6,487 6,942 7,963 8,335 5,916 5,017 5,770 6,328 6,711 6,423 6,273 6,600 NGDPDGross national

26.2 29.0 32.3 28.8 28.2 25.8 23.1 26.3 28.1 27.2 27.6 25.2 23.7 LPStock of bank credit to corp/households (BYN bn) 8.9 14.8 20.2 25.9 31.4 37.8 35.9 38.8 44.1 48.6 59.7 65.7 70.9 NGDPDPCStock of bank credit to corp/households (% of GDP)52.2 48.2 36.9 38.7 39.0 42.0 37.8 36.7 36.0 36.8 40.6 41.3 41.6Deposits (BYNbn) 4.3 9.8 14.3 17.3 21.4 29.4 29.7 34.5 37.5 42.3 45.3 49.3 53.8Loan-to-deposit ratio (%) 206 151 142 150 147 129 121 113 118 115 132 133 132 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 7.7 53.2 59.2 18.3 18.1 13.5 11.8 6.0 4.9 5.7 5.6 6.5 5.0 PCPIPCHCPI (end-year % YoY) 9.9 108.7 21.8 16.5 16.2 12.0 10.6 4.6 5.6 5.6 7.4 5.5 5.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balanceRepublican budget balance (% of GDP) -2.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.7 1.7 1.1 2.6 3.8 2.4 -1.7 -2.5 -1.0 GGXCNL_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 25.8 51.1 31.0 32.7 36.2 50.5 50.2 49.3 43.9 40.0 45.2 45.3 44.8 GGXONLB_NGDPExternal balance GGXWDG_NGDPMerchandise exports ($bn) 25 41 46 37 35 26 23 29 33 32 27 30 31Merchandise imports ($bn) 34 44 45 41 38 28 26 32 36 37 29 33 35 TXG_FOB_USDTrade balance ($bn) -9 -3 1 -5 -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance (% of GDP) -16 -6 1 -6 -3 -4 -5 -5 -4 -7 -3 -5 -5Current account balance ($bn) -8 -5 -2 -8 -5 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2Current account balance (% of GDP) -15 -8 -3 -10 -7 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 BCANet FDI ($bn) 1 4 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI (% of GDP) 2 6 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -12 -2 -1 -7 -4 0 -1 0 2 0 -1 -1 -1Exports (% YoY) 19 67 11 -20 -3 -26 -12 24 17 -3 -16 10 5Imports (% YoY) 22 31 1 -9 -7 -26 -10 24 13 2 -20 12 6International reserves ($bn) 3.4 6.0 5.8 6.7 5.1 4.2 4.9 7.3 7.2 9.4 7.2 7.5 8.0Import cover (months of imports) 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 28.0 34.0 34.0 40.0 40.0 38.0 38.0 40.0 39.0 40.7 42.1 42.8 44.0Gross external debt (% of GDP) 50.0 55.0 51.0 52.0 51.0 68.0 79.0 73.0 66.0 64.0 70.1 73.3 71.9Gross external debt (% of exports) 13.7 10.0 9.0 13.1 13.6 17.4 19.7 16.7 14.0 15.1 18.7 17.3 16.9Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (% YoY) 31.9 121.2 45.1 19.8 23.9 36.5 3.8 17.4 8.5 12.2 4.7 6.0 10.0Refinancing rate (%) year-end 10.50 45.00 30.00 23.50 20.00 25.00 18.00 11.00 10.00 9.00 7.75 8.50 8.50Exchange rate (BYN/EUR) year-end 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.4 3.2 3.4 3.5Exchange rate (BYN/EUR) annual average 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.5Exchange rate (BYN/$) year-end 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.8Exchange rate (BYN/$) annual average 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.8Credit rating history LatestMoody's B1 B3 B3 B3 B3 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's B+ B- B- B- B- B- B- B B B B B naFitch - - - - - - B- B- B B B B na

Source: National statistics office, NBB, MinFin, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Benin 8 BEN 638 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 30: Benin key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/B+/B EODB Rank: 149 (153) - Weak Corruption Rank: 83 (80) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 33 (34) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 2.1 3.0 4.8 7.2 6.4 1.8 3.3 5.7 6.7 6.9 2.0 5.0 6.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 15.6 16.5 15.3 18.9 19.3 20.7 20.3 24.0 26.4 25.6 28.3 27.7 27.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 4,718 5,039 5,688 6,183 6,559 6,733 7,005 7,375 7,916 8,432 8,732 9,328 10,125 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 10 11 11 13 13 11 12 13 14 14 15 17 19 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 LPGDP per capita ($) 1,037 1,130 1,146 1,251 1,292 1,077 1,087 1,136 1,241 1,218 1,251 1,388 1,484 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 747 835 890 1,017 1,098 1,127 1,225 1,223 1,327 1,485 na na naLending/GDP (%) 15.8 16.6 15.6 16.5 16.7 16.7 17.5 16.6 16.8 17.6 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 10.0 11.6 10.1 13.5 12.6 14.8 17.3 19.8 21.8 21.6 23.6 23.2 23.7 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.2 2.7 6.7 1.0 -1.1 0.2 -0.8 1.8 0.8 -0.9 3.0 2.0 2.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.0 1.8 6.8 -1.8 -0.8 2.3 -2.8 3.0 -0.1 0.3 3.0 2.0 2.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 -1.4 -1.7 -5.6 -4.3 -4.2 -3.0 -0.5 -4.9 -4.5 -3.0 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 0.1 -0.7 0.2 -1.0 -1.4 -5.0 -3.4 -2.8 -1.4 1.1 -2.8 -2.1 -0.8 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 21.0 21.9 19.5 18.5 22.3 30.9 35.9 39.6 41.1 41.2 45.4 47.7 46.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 2 2 2 2 3 4 2 3 3 3 3 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -17 -16 -17 -19 -20 -16 -19 -18 -16 -14 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -6 -5 -5 -5 -7 -6 -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 -5 -4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3.5 -3.9 -3.0 -3.0 -3.7 -4.9 -2.0 -2.9 -3.3 -2.7 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 26 -27 19 29 62 -35 -29 70 27 -11 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 37 -3 12 28 24 -32 6 16 7 -11 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 12.3 12.5 12.2 12.4 11.7 11.2 9.1 11.7 13.4 15.8 na na naImport cover (months of imports) 69.3 72.7 63.3 50.4 38.3 54.3 41.7 45.7 49.0 65.4 na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 6 6 7 na na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 11 10 11 11 11 14 14 51 45 50 na na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 191 282 261 226 145 248 371 858 678 843 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 10 6 6 6 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 29 52 68 52 25 29 40 164 84 96 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 11 6 5 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 2 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 8 13 13 14 8 13 22 14 24 60 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 9.8 9.4 7.5 17.3 18.4 6.1 0.2 1.0 4.8 6.0 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 657 662 660Exchange rate ($) annual average 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 555 586 575 538 531Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - - - - - - B2 B2 B1 naStandard & Poor's B B B NR NR NR NR NR B+ B+ B+ B+ naFitch B B WD WD WD WD WD WD WD B B B naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Botswana 9 BWA 616 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 31: Botswana key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/BBB+/- EODB Rank: 87 (86) - Middle Corruption Rank: 35 (34) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 62 (59) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.6 6.0 4.5 11.3 4.1 -1.7 4.3 2.9 4.5 3.0 -8.3 7.5 5.4 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 41.4 38.6 38.8 29.4 28.2 32.6 27.0 27.6 29.4 33.3 36.1 32.7 30.3 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 86.9 105.0 109.9 125.2 145.9 146.1 170.6 180.1 190.4 197.3 182.3 209.7 236.5 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 12.8 15.4 16.1 14.9 16.3 14.4 15.7 17.4 18.7 18.3 15.9 18.7 20.1 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 LPGDP per capita ($) 6,375 7,638 7,899 7,231 7,785 6,811 7,249 7,883 8,290 7,979 6,781 7,817 8,234 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 23.6 28.8 35.0 39.8 45.2 49.3 53.7 56.6 60.4 64.7 na na naLending/GDP (%) 27.2 27.4 31.8 31.8 31.0 33.8 31.5 31.4 31.7 32.8 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 37.5 40.4 38.8 37.1 42.6 39.5 34.7 33.0 30.1 25.7 25.8 28.2 27.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 7.0 8.5 7.5 5.9 4.4 3.1 2.8 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.0 4.7 4.3 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 7.4 9.2 7.4 4.1 3.8 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.5 2.2 2.3 4.7 4.3 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -7.8 -0.1 0.9 5.6 3.7 -4.6 0.7 -1.1 -4.6 -7.8 -13.2 -8.4 -7.1 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -7.3 0.4 1.4 5.1 4.0 -4.0 0.9 -0.5 -4.1 -7.2 -12.4 -7.4 -5.9 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 20.4 20.4 19.2 17.4 17.3 17.2 15.6 13.4 14.2 14.9 20.0 25.3 29.9 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 3 5 6 7 8 9 6 7 6 6 5 4 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 5 5 8 10 10 9 8 6 5 6 7 6 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 0 -2 -4 -2 -1 -2 1 1 0 -1 -2 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -4 -16 -23 -11 -4 -12 7 3 1 -7 -14 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -3 3 0 9 15 8 8 5 1 -8 -10 -4 -3 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2 2 1 1 4 4 2 1 2 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 5 1 10 19 12 10 7 3 -6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 35 26 13 18 8 -26 16 -19 8 -17 -22 na naImports (% YoY, value) 8 63 24 -8 -3 -12 -24 -13 17 4 -2 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 7.9 8.1 7.6 7.7 8.3 7.5 7.2 7.5 6.7 6.2 4.9 na naImport cover (months of imports) 18.4 11.6 8.8 9.7 10.8 11.2 14.0 16.8 12.7 11.3 9.2 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 23 24 25 26 23 25 22 19 18 16 18 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 64 62 59 49 43 58 47 55 52 55 70 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 12 10 9 7 8 8 7 5 7 6 10 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 4 6 5 9 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 2 1 1 2 1 4 2 3 3 4 4 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 2 3 3 4 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na 9.5 9.5 7.5 7.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.8 3.8 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 10.7 4.4 10.0 8.4 4.6 19.9 5.4 2.7 8.3 8.0 5.9 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 9.01 9.50 8.77 11.1 11.9 11.2 12.1 11.7 12.1 12.0 13.1 13.8 14.6Exchange rate ($) annual average 6.79 6.82 6.82 8.39 8.97 10.1 10.9 10.4 10.2 10.8 11.5 11.2 11.7Credit rating history Latest

Moody's A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A3 naStandard & Poor's A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- BBB+ BBB+ naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Brazil 10 BRA 223 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 32: Brazil key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 124 (109) - Middle Corruption Rank: 94 (106) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 38 (42) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.5 4.0 1.9 3.0 0.5 -3.5 -3.3 1.3 1.8 1.4 -4.1 3.7 2.6 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 21.8 21.8 21.4 21.7 20.5 17.4 15.0 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 8.5 7.8 7.4 7.2 6.8 8.3 11.3 12.8 12.3 11.9 13.2 14.5 13.2 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 3,886 4,376 4,815 5,332 5,779 5,996 6,269 6,585 7,004 7,407 7,448 8,049 8,591 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 2,209 2,614 2,464 2,472 2,456 1,800 1,797 2,064 1,917 1,877 1,434 1,492 1,636 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 195 197 198 200 202 203 205 207 208 210 211 213 214 LPGDP per capita ($) 11,333 13,296 12,425 12,358 12,176 8,846 8,757 9,978 9,194 8,932 6,783 7,011 7,644 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 2,050 2,542 3,010 3,425 3,816 4,007 3,898 3,917 4,218 4,625 5,227 na naLending/GDP (%) 52.8 58.1 62.5 64.2 66.0 66.8 62.2 59.5 60.2 62.4 70.2 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 18.2 18.9 18.0 18.5 16.4 14.4 13.6 13.9 12.9 12.7 14.5 14.8 14.7 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.0 6.6 5.4 6.2 6.3 9.0 8.7 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.2 4.6 4.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.9 6.4 10.7 6.3 2.9 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.5 3.5 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.8 -2.5 -2.5 -3.0 -6.0 -10.3 -9.0 -7.9 -7.1 -5.9 -13.4 -8.3 -7.2 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 1.2 2.9 1.9 1.7 -0.6 -1.9 -2.5 -1.8 -1.7 -0.9 -9.2 -3.7 -2.1 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 63.0 61.2 62.2 60.2 62.3 72.6 78.3 83.6 85.6 87.7 99 98 99 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 151 202 256 242 242 225 191 185 218 242 222 210 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 134 192 240 236 254 243 182 145 160 190 188 166 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 9 16 6 -12 -18 9 39 58 52 34 44 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 0 1 0 0 -1 1 2 3 3 2 3 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -79 -76 -84 -80 -101 -54 -24 -15 -42 -51 -12 -9 -14 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 56 86 90 60 67 62 60 48 76 56 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3 3 4 2 3 3 3 2 4 3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 2 0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 34 27 -5 0 -7 -15 -3 18 11 -8 -6 na naImports (% YoY, value) 44 25 -1 7 -4 -25 -20 10 19 -1 -12 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 287 350 370 356 361 354 363 371 372 354 352 na naImport cover (months of imports) 17.9 17.5 18.8 16.8 17.8 23.4 30.0 27.9 23.5 22.6 25.4 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 352 404 441 483 713 665 677 667 666 676 622 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 16 15 18 20 29 37 38 32 35 36 43 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 174 158 182 200 317 348 367 306 275 304 296 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 57 40 33 33 58 51 56 51 67 79 76 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 2 1 1 2 3 3 2 3 4 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 28 16 13 13 26 27 31 24 28 36 36 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 20 11 9 9 16 14 16 14 18 22 22 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 46 59 45 82 62 90 117 95 96 152 87 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 2 3 3 5 7 5 5 8 6 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 23 23 19 34 28 47 64 44 39 68 41 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 16 17 12 23 17 25 32 26 26 43 25 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 10.8 11.0 7.3 10.0 11.8 14.3 13.8 7.0 6.5 4.5 2.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 19.2 14.9 12.8 10.6 11.9 11.3 9.8 6.8 8.6 7.3 16.2 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 2.33 2.33 2.51 2.87 3.13 3.70 3.86 3.61 4.32 4.42 5.94 6.64 6.52Exchange rate ($) annual average 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.35 3.33 3.49 3.19 3.65 3.95 5.19 5.40 5.25Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB BB- BB- BB- BB- naFitch BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BB+ BB BB BB- BB- BB- BB- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Cambodia 11 KHM 522 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 33: Cambodia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/NR/- EODB Rank: 144 (138) - Weak Corruption Rank: 160 (162) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 5 (5) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.0 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.5 7.0 -3.5 4.2 6.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 17.4 17.1 18.5 20.0 22.1 22.5 22.7 23.0 23.7 23.9 22.0 23.0 23.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 47.0 52.1 56.7 61.3 67.4 73.4 81.2 89.8 98.9 108.5 106.6 113.2 122.3 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 11.2 12.8 14.1 15.2 16.7 18.1 20.0 22.2 24.4 26.7 26.0 27.2 29.1 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.0 LPGDP per capita ($) 788 890 965 1,035 1,123 1,203 1,320 1,447 1,578 1,713 1,655 1,720 1,821 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 13.0 14.7 22.0 31.9 42.3 54.6 66.4 77.8 99.1 125.6 na na naLending/GDP (%) 27.6 28.3 38.7 52.0 62.7 74.3 81.7 86.7 100 116 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 8.6 9.1 9.9 11.5 13.5 13.7 14.2 15.1 11.5 8.1 9.5 5.0 8.9 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.0 5.5 2.9 3.0 3.9 1.2 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.9 3.1 2.8 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.1 4.9 2.5 4.7 1.0 2.8 3.9 2.2 1.6 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.8 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.8 -4.7 -4.5 -2.6 -1.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.8 0.7 3.0 -1.7 -3.4 -4.2 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -3.6 -4.4 -4.2 -2.3 -1.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.5 1.0 3.3 -1.3 -3.0 -3.8 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 28.7 29.7 31.5 31.7 31.9 31.2 29.1 30.0 28.6 29.0 31.6 33.4 35.4 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 5 6 7 8 9 7 9 10 11 13 16 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 13 15 18 21 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 1 1 1 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -5 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 6 4 6 0 -20 -15 -14 -16 -22 -20 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -5 -4 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -9 -8 -9 -8 -9 -9 -8 -8 -12 -16 -13 -18 -15 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 12 12 14 13 11 10 12 12 13 13 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 4 4 5 5 2 1 3 4 0 -2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 12 20 17 18 -26 25 18 12 13 27 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 25 26 15 31 11 9 15 15 22 18 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 3.3 3.4 4.3 4.5 5.6 6.9 8.4 11.3 13.4 17.0 18.6 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8.0 6.7 7.2 5.9 6.6 7.4 7.8 9.1 8.9 9.5 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 4 4 5 5 9 10 11 13 15 17 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 29 28 31 33 33 49 50 52 54 57 64 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 58 54 56 54 79 103 100 102 104 95 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 3 7 8 8 7 9 8 10 13 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 6 6 13 13 19 15 17 16 19 21 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 11 12 23 26 24 19 21 16 18 20 19 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 1 5 7 7 10 8 7 9 10 9 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 2 9 13 14 12 10 9 9 10 9 9 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na na na na na na na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 21.3 3.9 39.4 21.8 31.5 17.0 21.0 23.1 26.6 18.2 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 5,557 5,657 5,185 5,350 5,364 4,508 4,487 4,571 4,781 4,547 4,697 5,108 5,216Exchange rate ($) annual average 4,189 4,062 4,032 4,027 4,038 4,060 4,053 4,045 4,047 4,061 4,109 4,154 4,200Credit rating history Latest

Moody's B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Cameroon 12 CMR 622 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 34: Cameroon key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2u/B-/B EODB Rank: 167 (166) - Weak Corruption Rank: 149 (153) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 8 (10) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.4 4.1 4.5 5.4 5.9 5.7 4.6 3.5 4.1 3.9 -2.8 3.4 4.3 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.3 29.3 27.7 28.4 28.1 29.8 30.1 27.2 28.4 28.6 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 12,948 13,843 14,859 15,981 17,276 18,285 19,345 20,328 21,493 22,769 22,426 23,835 25,196 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 26 29 29 32 35 31 33 35 39 39 39 45 48 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 20 21 21 22 23 23 24 25 25 26 27 27 28 LPGDP per capita ($) 1,288 1,405 1,355 1,466 1,543 1,328 1,364 1,425 1,535 1,502 1,470 1,649 1,722 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 1,467 1,779 1,911 2,159 2,466 2,754 2,985 2,948 3,260 3,287 na na naLending/GDP (%) 11.3 12.9 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.1 15.4 14.5 15.2 14.4 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 25.5 25.2 24.6 24.8 25.3 23.9 25.2 25.5 26.2 25.8 21.9 24.1 25.4 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.7 0.9 0.6 1.1 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.1 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.7 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.8 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.0 -2.4 -1.4 -3.7 -4.3 -4.4 -6.1 -4.9 -2.5 -3.3 -4.1 -2.6 -1.9 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -0.7 -2.0 -1.1 -3.3 -3.9 -4.0 -5.3 -4.0 -1.6 -2.3 -3.2 -1.5 -0.9 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 14.7 15.7 15.4 18.2 21.5 32.0 33.3 37.7 39.5 41.7 43.2 42.5 42.0 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 2 4 4 4 4 5 4 2 3 4 5 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 4 5 7 6 7 8 6 5 5 6 5 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -3 -7 -7 -7 -7 -6 -8 -6 -5 -2 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -3 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 135 5 -3 4 17 -22 -46 51 20 17 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 36 30 -2 4 13 -20 -18 6 11 -8 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 2.2 3.2 3.5 na na na naImport cover (months of imports) 8.6 5.8 6.3 6.3 5.0 7.0 5.4 7.4 7.2 na na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 3 4 6 11 7 9 11 13 13 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 10 11 12 17 35 23 27 28 32 34 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 61 63 72 88 113 272 342 290 277 272 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 1 0 1 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 22 25 26 31 22 30 54 9 1 5 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 26 34 33 40 36 35 52 9 1 na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 4 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 7 6 6 10 13 43 22 27 25 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 6 10 7 8 17 14 42 23 31 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 13.8 10.1 -0.1 11.4 13.2 8.8 5.0 5.4 13.9 na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 657 653 651Exchange rate ($) annual average 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 555 586 575 531 524Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - - - B2 B2 B2 B2 B2u B2u naStandard & Poor's B B B B B B B B B B B- B- naFitch B B B B B B B B B B B B naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Chile 13 CHL 228 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 35: Chile key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/A/A- EODB Rank: 59 (56) - Middle Corruption Rank: 25 (26) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 79 (80) - Strong

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.8 6.1 5.3 4.0 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.2 3.7 1.0 -5.8 6.2 3.8 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 23.2 24.6 26.4 25.7 23.3 23.8 22.3 21.3 22.1 22.9 19.8 20.1 19.9 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 8.3 7.3 6.6 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.2 10.8 9.0 8.2 LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 111 122 130 138 149 160 169 180 191 196 200 220 234 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 218 252 267 278 260 244 250 277 297 279 253 308 328 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.9 LPGDP per capita ($) 12,794 14,611 15,308 15,804 14,643 13,571 13,779 15,033 15,862 14,616 12,990 15,617 16,459 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 73.8 85.6 95.6 106 117 129 135 142 156 171 na na naLending/GDP (%) 66.3 70.2 73.6 76.7 79.0 81.0 79.9 78.8 81.5 87.0 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 24.9 23.2 21.9 20.9 21.2 21.3 20.3 18.9 18.1 19.2 21.2 20.4 19.3 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.4 3.3 3.0 1.8 4.7 4.3 3.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 3.0 3.1 3.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 2.9 4.4 1.5 3.1 4.7 4.4 2.7 2.3 2.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.4 1.4 0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -2.1 -2.7 -2.6 -1.5 -2.7 -7.1 -2.3 -2.9 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -0.3 1.5 0.8 -0.4 -1.3 -1.9 -2.4 -2.3 -1.1 -2.3 -6.6 -1.9 -2.4 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 8.6 11.1 11.9 12.7 15.0 17.3 21.0 23.6 25.6 28.2 32.5 33.6 36.8 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 55 71 81 78 76 75 62 61 69 75 70 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 43 59 75 80 79 73 62 59 65 75 70 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 12 7 -2 -3 2 0 1 4 0 0 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 5 3 -1 -1 1 0 1 1 0 0 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 3 -7 -12 -13 -5 -6 -5 -6 -12 -10 3 1 -2 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 1 -3 -4 -5 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 1 0 -1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 7 4 11 12 11 5 5 1 7 3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3 2 4 4 4 2 2 0 2 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 4 -1 0 0 2 0 0 -2 -2 -2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 28 15 -4 -2 -2 -17 -2 13 9 -7 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 38 26 7 -1 -8 -14 -5 10 15 -7 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 28 42 42 41 40 39 40 39 40 41 39 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 7 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 87 101 123 136 152 161 165 180 185 198 206 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 40 40 46 49 58 66 66 65 62 71 81 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 122 124 158 179 203 259 271 262 245 283 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 16 18 21 18 17 13 13 17 18 19 16 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 22 22 27 23 22 20 22 25 23 28 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 56 44 50 43 41 32 32 44 44 48 41 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 3.3 5.3 5.0 4.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.8 1.8 0.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 11.9 21.0 9.0 11.6 11.1 12.2 8.2 4.8 11.0 10.7 4.3 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 677 674 626 658 758 726 749 733 758 787 906 877 886Exchange rate ($) annual average 510 484 486 495 570 654 677 649 641 703 792 713 714Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 A1 A1 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- A+ A+ A+ A+ A naFitch A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A A A- A- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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China 14 CHN 924 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 36: China key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/A+/A+ EODB Rank: 31 (46) - Strong Corruption Rank: 78 (80) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 29 (30) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 10.8 9.5 7.9 7.8 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.7 5.8 2.3 8.4 5.6 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 47.0 47.0 46.2 46.1 45.6 43.0 42.7 43.2 44.0 43.1 43.7 43.7 43.6 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.6 LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 40.9 48.4 53.9 59.6 64.7 69.2 74.6 82.9 91.6 99.1 101.6 113.6 122.6 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 6,034 7,492 8,539 9,625 10,524 11,114 11,227 12,265 13,842 14,341 14,723 16,642 18,013 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 1,341 1,347 1,354 1,361 1,368 1,375 1,383 1,390 1,395 1,400 1,404 1,408 1,411 LPGDP per capita ($) 4,500 5,561 6,307 7,073 7,694 8,085 8,120 8,823 9,920 10,243 10,484 11,819 12,763 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 52.2 60.1 69.4 79.6 90.3 105 117 129 145 163 185 na naLending/GDP (%) 128 124 129 134 140 152 156 155 158 165 182 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 50.9 48.8 48.7 47.7 47.9 45.8 44.5 44.8 44.1 44.1 45.7 45.2 44.8 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.3 5.4 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.6 2.1 2.9 2.4 1.2 1.9 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.6 4.1 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 4.5 -0.3 2.3 1.9 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 -2.8 -3.7 -3.8 -4.7 -6.3 -11.4 -9.6 -8.7 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -3.8 -5.5 -10.4 -8.7 -7.8 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 33.9 33.8 34.4 37.0 40.0 41.5 48.2 51.7 53.8 57.1 66.8 69.6 73.7 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 1202 1,578 1,899 2,050 2,211 2,343 2,281 2,137 2,280 2,501 2,499 2,591 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 1004 1,394 1,741 1,817 1,949 1,963 1,602 1,589 1,832 2,134 2,069 2,056 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 185 158 233 261 380 679 547 448 367 430 535 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 3 2 3 3 4 6 5 4 3 3 4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 238 136 215 148 236 304 202 195 25 141 299 274 238 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 4 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 0 1 2 2 1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 46 49 33 16 5 -10 -62 -22 -5 24 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 5 2 3 2 2 3 1 1 0 1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 31 20 8 8 6 -3 -6 7 10 0 4 na naImports (% YoY, value) 39 25 4 7 1 -18 -1 15 16 -3 -1 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 2,866 3,203 3,331 3,840 3,859 3,345 3,030 3,159 3,092 3,127 3,239 na naImport cover (months of imports) 24.7 22.1 22.0 23.6 23.6 25.1 22.9 20.7 17.4 18.1 18.9 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 560 706 748 874 0 1,383 1,416 1,758 1,983 2,057 2,294 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 9 9 9 9 0 12 13 14 14 14 16 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 35 37 36 40 0 61 66 77 79 82 89 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 348 477 510 625 621 822 801 1,095 1,219 1,147 1,234 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 8 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 22 25 25 28 27 36 38 48 49 46 48 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 12 15 15 16 16 25 26 35 39 37 38 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 52 63 72 77 82 127 168 206 241 276 161 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 3 3 4 3 3 6 8 9 10 11 6 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 2 2 2 2 2 4 6 7 8 9 5 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 5.8 6.6 6.0 6.0 5.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 18.9 17.3 14.4 13.6 11.0 13.3 11.3 8.2 8.9 8.7 10.1 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 8.98 9.00 8.12 8.23 8.16 6.91 7.35 7.64 7.82 7.73 7.89 8.40 8.45Exchange rate ($) annual average 6.77 6.46 6.31 6.20 6.14 6.23 6.64 6.76 6.62 6.91 6.90 6.83 6.81Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ naFitch A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Colombia 15 COL 233 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 37: Colombia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 67 (65) - Middle Corruption Rank: 92 (96) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 34 (33) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.5 6.9 3.9 5.1 4.5 3.0 2.1 1.4 2.6 3.3 -6.8 5.2 3.6 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 21.9 23.0 22.1 22.2 24.0 23.8 23.2 21.6 21.2 21.5 18.8 19.2 19.8 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 11.8 10.8 10.4 9.7 9.1 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.5 16.1 12.8 12.3 LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 544 619 667 714 763 805 864 920 988 1,061 1,003 1,086 1,161 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 286 335 371 382 381 293 283 312 334 323 271 296 313 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 45.5 46.0 46.6 47.1 47.7 48.2 48.7 49.3 49.8 50.4 50.9 51.4 51.8 LPGDP per capita ($) 6,295 7,275 7,958 8,109 7,999 6,089 5,800 6,327 6,705 6,419 5,336 5,753 6,045 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 176 216 252 282 323 377 406 458 490 547 na na naLending/GDP (%) 32.4 35.0 37.7 39.5 42.4 46.9 47.1 49.8 49.6 51.5 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 18.8 20.0 19.0 18.9 18.7 17.2 18.6 18.2 17.1 17.1 15.5 15.4 16.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.3 3.4 3.2 2.0 2.9 5.0 7.5 4.3 3.2 3.5 2.5 2.1 2.6 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.1 3.7 2.4 2.0 3.7 6.8 5.7 4.1 3.1 3.8 1.6 2.5 2.6 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.3 -2.0 0.2 -1.0 -1.7 -3.5 -2.3 -2.5 -4.7 -2.5 -6.9 -8.3 -3.6 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -1.3 0.1 1.8 0.9 -0.2 -1.7 -0.4 -0.5 -2.5 0.0 -4.3 -5.5 -0.5 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 36.5 35.8 34.0 37.6 43.3 50.4 49.8 49.4 53.6 52.3 62.8 64.2 64.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 33 39 56 60 59 55 36 31 37 42 39 31 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 33 41 55 59 59 64 54 44 46 51 53 43 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -1 1 1 -1 -9 -18 -13 -8 -9 -14 -12 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -5 -3 -3 -4 -5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -9 -10 -12 -13 -20 -19 -13 -11 -14 -14 -9 -11 -12 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -7 -5 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 6 16 9 12 8 9 10 6 11 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0 2 4 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3 -1 1 -1 -2 -4 -1 0 -2 -1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 21 42 7 -1 -7 -35 -12 19 12 -6 -21 na naImports (% YoY, value) 24 34 7 1 8 -16 -18 3 11 5 -18 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 28 31 36 43 46 46 46 47 47 52 58 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8 7 7 9 9 10 12 12 11 12 16 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 65 76 79 92 101 110 120 125 132 138 147 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 23 23 21 24 27 38 42 40 39 43 54 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 165 136 132 156 185 310 383 335 315 352 475 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 8 11 10 11 12 12 11 13 15 16 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 20 19 17 19 22 33 36 35 36 41 46 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 28 34 28 25 26 26 25 28 31 31 25 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 10 10 15 10 15 14 16 22 24 19 19 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3 3 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 6 7 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 25 18 26 17 27 40 50 60 58 49 63 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 35 33 42 24 32 31 34 48 52 37 33 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 3.0 4.8 4.3 3.3 4.5 5.8 7.5 4.8 4.3 4.3 1.8 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 11.3 18.1 15.6 13.1 9.6 12.1 6.7 7.3 5.6 8.0 12.7 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 2,519 2,574 2,312 2,483 2,659 3,044 3,382 3,335 3,493 3,674 4,222 4,519 4,601Exchange rate ($) annual average 1,899 1,848 1,798 1,869 2,001 2,742 3,055 2,951 2,956 3,281 3,693 3,675 3,704Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BBB- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Congo (Rep.) 16 COG 634 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 38: Congo (Rep.) key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa2/CCC+/CCC EODB Rank: 180 (180) - Weak Corruption Rank: 165 (165) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 9.9 2.2 9.9 -0.7 6.7 -3.6 -10.7 -4.4 -6.4 -0.6 -7.8 0.2 1.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 47.2 36.8 43.8 47.1 52.9 78.3 73.8 36.5 23.4 22.2 21.4 24.1 25.7 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 6,506 7,378 9,033 8,870 8,845 7,030 6,022 6,453 7,441 7,348 5,881 6,383 6,481 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 13 16 18 18 18 12 10 11 13 13 10 12 12 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 LPGDP per capita ($) 3,598 4,175 4,607 4,560 4,438 2,874 2,395 2,555 3,007 2,746 2,186 2,505 2,514 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 389 529 670 788 987 1,116 1,162 1,085 1,067 1,002 na na naLending/GDP (%) 6.0 7.2 7.4 8.9 11.2 15.9 19.3 16.8 14.3 13.6 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 54.0 50.0 57.5 57.8 53.9 39.3 25.1 33.2 24.9 24.5 17.7 23.9 23.6 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 0.4 1.8 5.0 4.6 0.9 3.2 3.2 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 2.6 1.8 7.5 2.1 0.5 4.1 0.0 1.8 0.9 3.8 2.5 2.7 3.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 15.5 16.1 7.2 -2.8 -10.7 -17.8 -15.6 -5.9 5.8 4.8 1.5 2.4 1.3 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 16.3 16.1 7.2 -2.7 -10.6 -17.2 -13.7 -4.3 7.7 8.0 2.9 4.5 3.3 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 43.5 34.4 30.2 33.9 42.3 74.2 91.0 94.2 78.6 83.3 102 90.5 84.5 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 8 7 13 7 10 8 8 7 8 11 6 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 4 4 7 7 8 10 11 11 5 3 2 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 2 6 0 2 -2 -3 -4 3 8 3 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 18 40 1 9 -12 -22 -43 29 57 27 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 1 2 2 2 0 -5 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 7 13 14 11 1 -39 -49 -3 1 2 -4 0 -2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 0 0 1 2 4 2 4 4 3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 7 1 -2 3 9 32 16 39 32 27 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 14 14 12 14 10 -7 -33 36 34 29 na na naExports (% YoY, value) -12 99 -44 34 -20 -1 -13 13 43 -50 na na naImports (% YoY, value) -2 60 5 14 21 4 7 -60 -24 -36 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 4 6 6 5 5 2 0.7 0.4 0.4 na na na naImport cover (months of imports) 12 10 9 8 6 3 0.8 1.0 1.5 na na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 3 3 3 6 6 7 6 6 6 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 16 13 17 18 18 52 59 60 46 51 59 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 32 16 39 33 40 78 87 85 56 114 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 2 2 2 2 6 3 5 3 4 4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 4 2 4 4 5 8 5 7 4 9 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 6 5 6 8 8 30 47 136 106 na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 2 1 2 4 6 5 4 4 3 9 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 3 2 3 8 9 17 42 87 92 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 32.0 38.1 19.8 1.1 13.7 -11.4 -15.0 -11.6 -6.0 7.7 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 657 653 651Exchange rate ($) annual average 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 555 586 575 531 524Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B3 Caa2 Caa2 Caa2 Caa2 Caa2 naStandard & Poor's - - - B+ B+ B B- CCC+ B- B- CCC+ CCC+ naFitch - - - B+ B+ B+ CCC CC CC CCC CCC CCC naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Croatia 17 HRV 960 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 39: Croatia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba1/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 51 (58) - Middle Corruption Rank: 63 (63) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 66 (64) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) -1.3 -0.2 -2.4 -0.4 -0.3 2.4 3.5 3.4 2.8 2.9 -9.0 4.7 5.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 21.1 19.9 18.8 19.4 18.9 20.6 21.0 22.0 23.4 22.7 24.4 24.0 24.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 17.2 17.4 18.6 19.8 19.3 17.1 15.0 12.4 9.9 7.8 9.2 9.4 9.0 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 329.4 334.2 331.0 332.0 331.3 339.7 351.2 367.5 385.4 402.3 369.8 391.3 418.6 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 59.9 62.5 56.6 58.2 57.6 49.5 51.6 55.5 61.4 60.8 56.9 65.2 70.7 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 LPGDP per capita ($) 13,562 14,608 13,257 13,673 13,601 11,781 12,363 13,450 15,010 14,936 14,072 16,247 17,741 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 224.5 233.7 234.2 230.7 225.6 218.8 211.4 209.8 213.5 219.0 226.1 na naLending/GDP (%) 68.1 69.9 70.7 69.5 68.1 64.4 60.2 57.1 55.4 54.4 61.2 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 19.0 18.2 17.0 18.3 19.2 23.9 23.2 25.4 25.3 25.5 20.9 21.7 22.9 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.0 2.3 3.4 2.2 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.7 1.2 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 1.9 2.1 4.6 0.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.2 1.2 0.9 1.4 0.1 0.9 1.6 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -6.5 -7.9 -5.3 -5.3 -5.4 -3.3 -1.0 0.8 0.2 0.4 -8.0 -3.9 -2.6 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -4.4 -5.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.4 -0.2 1.9 3.2 2.3 2.4 -5.9 -1.6 -0.4 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 57.7 64.2 70.0 81.0 84.7 84.3 80.8 77.5 74.3 72.8 87.2 86.3 83.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 10 12 13 12 13 14 13 14 16 17 17 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 21 20 23 21 22 23 21 22 25 28 28 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -8 -9 -8 -9 -9 -8 -8 -9 -11 -11 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -14 -15 -15 -16 -16 -15 -16 -16 -18 -18 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 1 2 1 2 -2 -1 -1 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -2 -2 -2 -1 0 3 2 3 2 3 -4 -2 -2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2 2 2 2 2 0 4 2 1 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 6 3 5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 13 13 -7 2 9 -7 7 16 8 -1 na na naImports (% YoY, value) -6 13 -8 6 4 -10 6 13 14 0 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 14 14 15 18 15 15 14 19 20 21 23 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8 8 9 10 8 9 8 9 9 9 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 66 64 63 67 60 53 47 52 49 46 48 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 110 102 111 115 103 106 91 94 80 76 84 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 560 476 507 528 431 406 341 326 281 267 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 9 10 7 8 7 7 7 9 9 8 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 15 15 13 14 11 14 13 15 14 13 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 78 72 59 62 47 54 48 53 51 46 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 65 66 50 44 42 47 47 45 44 38 35 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 9.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 1.8 5.6 3.6 4.0 3.2 5.2 4.7 2.1 5.5 2.9 9.3 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 7.29 7.44 7.52 7.58 7.64 7.61 7.53 7.48 7.42 7.41 7.54 7.38 7.36Exchange rate ($) annual average 5.50 5.34 5.85 5.70 5.75 6.86 6.81 6.62 6.28 6.62 6.61 6.00 5.92Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 Ba1 Ba1 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB BB BB BB BB BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB BB BB BB BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- naNote: 2021-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Czech Republic18 CZE 935 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 40: Czech Republic key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa3/AA-/AA- EODB Rank: 41 (35) - Strong Corruption Rank: 49 (44) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 90 (89) - Strong

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 2.4 1.8 -0.8 0.0 2.3 5.4 2.5 5.2 3.2 2.3 -5.6 4.2 4.3 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 27.4 27.2 26.4 25.0 26.0 28.0 26.0 26.4 27.2 26.9 24.6 25.6 25.7 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 7.3 6.7 7.0 6.9 6.1 5.0 3.9 2.9 2.2 2.0 2.7 3.4 3.2 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 3,993 4,062 4,089 4,143 4,346 4,625 4,797 5,111 5,410 5,749 5,604 5,867 6,223 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 209 230 209 212 209 188 196 219 249 251 241 276 297 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 LPGDP per capita ($) 19,984 21,891 19,881 20,130 19,915 17,843 18,597 20,667 23,464 23,539 22,579 25,732 27,609 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 1,850 1,963 2,020 2,097 2,149 2,292 2,449 2,602 2,777 2,911 3,030 na naLending/GDP (%) 46.3 48.3 49.4 50.6 49.5 49.5 51.1 50.9 51.3 50.6 54.1 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 23.8 25.1 24.8 24.5 26.2 28.4 27.8 27.9 27.6 26.6 28.1 26.5 25.8 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.5 1.9 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 2.5 2.1 2.8 3.2 2.3 2.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 2.4 2.0 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.2 -2.7 -3.9 -1.2 -2.1 -0.6 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.3 -5.9 -7.8 -6.3 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -3.1 -1.6 -2.8 -0.2 -1.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.8 -5.4 -7.1 -5.6 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 37.1 39.5 44.2 44.4 41.9 39.7 36.6 34.2 32.1 30.2 37.6 44.0 48.0 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 113 133 163 157 162 175 158 163 182 202 199 149 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 105 127 152 142 144 154 141 143 163 185 179 136 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 6 11 16 18 21 17 20 19 18 20 12 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 3 5 7 8 10 9 10 9 7 8 5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -7 -5 -3 -1 0 1 3 3 1 -1 na na na BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -4 -2 -2 -1 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 1 0 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 5 3 6 0 4 -2 8 2 2 3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2 1 3 0 2 -1 4 1 1 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 -1 1 -1 2 -1 6 2 1 1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 18 22 -4 3 8 -10 3 12 11 -2 -25 na naImports (% YoY, value) 20 20 -7 2 7 -8 1 14 13 -3 -24 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 42 40 44 56 54 64 85 148 142 149 166 na naImport cover (months of imports) 4 3 4 5 4 5 7 11 9 10 15 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 97 95 104 137 129 126 138 205 194 194 189 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 46 41 50 65 62 67 70 94 78 77 78 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 73 58 66 85 74 80 85 113 96 97 127 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 25 28 26 34 36 40 50 97 95 92 83 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 12 13 16 17 21 25 44 38 37 34 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 19 17 17 21 20 26 31 53 47 46 56 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 59 71 60 62 66 63 58 66 67 61 50 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.0 0.3 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 1.9 2.8 4.8 5.8 5.9 8.0 6.5 10.4 6.3 6.4 10.0 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 25.3 24.6 25.2 26.0 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.4 25.7 25.7 26.5 26.1 26.0Exchange rate ($) annual average 19.1 17.7 19.6 19.6 20.8 24.6 24.4 23.4 21.7 22.9 23.2 21.2 21.0Credit rating history Latest

Moody's A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 naStandard & Poor's A AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- naFitch A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- na

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Transparency International, WJP, Bloomberg, CNB, FocusEconomics

1.21 1.25



39

DR Congo 19 COD 636 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 41: DR Congo key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa1/CCC+/- EODB Rank: 183 (184) - Weak Corruption Rank: 170 (168) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 6 (5) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.1 6.9 7.1 8.5 9.5 6.9 2.4 3.7 5.8 4.4 -0.1 3.8 4.9 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 28.7 21.2 12.6 15.5 21.6 18.9 12.3 12.1 11.7 12.6 10.5 12.6 14.0 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 20 24 27 30 33 35 38 56 76 83 94 112 126 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 21.5 25.9 29.4 32.7 35.9 37.9 36.6 37.6 47.1 50.4 49.1 55.1 58.2 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 65.9 68.1 70.3 72.6 74.9 77.3 79.8 82.4 85.1 87.9 90.8 94 97 LPGDP per capita ($) 327 380 418 451 480 491 459 456 553 574 541 588 601 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 na na naLending/GDP (%) 3.7 4.0 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.3 7.4 5.5 5.9 6.2 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 23.6 19.6 5.7 12.4 16.7 14.1 8.2 8.9 8.1 7.9 6.9 8.6 10.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 23.5 15.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.7 3.2 35.8 29.3 4.7 11.3 10.9 7.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 9.8 8.7 2.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 11.2 54.7 7.2 4.6 15.8 7.8 7.4 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.0 -1.0 1.8 1.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 1.4 0.0 -1.9 -1.6 -0.9 -0.4 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -0.7 -0.3 2.3 2.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 1.6 0.4 -1.7 -1.3 -0.7 -0.1 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 30.6 25.0 21.8 19.1 16.8 17.0 19.5 19.1 15.3 15.5 15.2 12.4 10.6 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 4 5 7 6 6 8 6 5 8 11 7 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 6 6 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 1 1 0 0 1 -1 1 3 4 1 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 4 4 1 0 2 -1 2 7 9 1 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -10 -5 -4 -10 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 14 6 10 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 4 1 6 -4 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 51 25 -5 0 26 -27 -7 43 40 -37 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 15 22 11 3 12 -11 -24 2 31 -3 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 na na na naImport cover (months of imports) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 na na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 10 6 4 4 3 6 6 6 5 6 6 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 45 22 15 11 8 15 17 15 12 11 13 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 185 87 71 58 38 97 114 73 51 81 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 7 5 6 12 4 6 14 5 3 5 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 28 26 24 47 20 30 104 58 50 na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 4 4 6 5 7 9 5 3 19 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 21 20 17 24 26 33 68 57 57 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 24.5 22.5 5.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 10.5 21.0 15.0 9.0 18.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 34.8 21.5 20.7 18.7 14.7 9.4 21.8 34.3 35.8 na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1,203 1,280 1,181 1,221 1,229 1,028 1,133 1,673 1,919 1,847 2,196 2,504 2,688Exchange rate ($) annual average 907 919 918 919 925 926 1,024 1,480 1,624 1,650 1,921 2,037 2,164Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 naStandard & Poor's - - - B- B- B- B- CCC+ CCC+ CCC+ CCC+ CCC+ naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic OutlookTrade data based on UNCTAD estimates




40

Egypt 20 EGY 469 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 42: Egypt key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B/B+ EODB Rank: 114 (120) - Middle Corruption Rank: 117 (106) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 8 (7) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.1 1.8 2.2 3.3 2.9 4.4 4.3 4.1 5.3 5.6 1.5 4.2 5.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 21.3 17.1 16.0 14.2 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.3 16.7 17.3 18.2 13.8 16.4 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 9.0 12.0 12.7 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.5 11.8 9.9 8.6 10.0 11.0 10.5 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 1,269 1,442 1,675 1,860 2,130 2,444 2,709 3,470 4,437 5,322 5,820 6,276 7,127 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 230 248 279 288 303 333 332 234 250 303 361 396 430 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 79 81 82 85 87 89 90 95 97 99 101 104 106 LPGDP per capita ($) 2,918 3,078 3,383 3,400 3,498 3,736 3,684 2,471 2,578 3,053 3,562 3,812 4,052 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 399 427 459 488 545 643 925 990 1,134 1,279 1,587 na na 1Lending/GDP (%) 31.5 29.6 27.4 26.2 25.6 26.3 34.1 28.5 25.5 24.0 27.3 na na 1Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 19.4 14.6 12.4 12.0 12.7 10.6 9.1 9.2 14.3 14.4 10.7 12.3 11.8 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 11.7 11.1 8.7 6.9 10.1 10.9 10.2 23.3 21.6 13.9 5.7 4.7 5.0 PCPIPCHCPI (fiscal year-end, % YoY) 10.7 11.8 7.3 9.8 8.2 11.4 14.0 29.8 14.4 9.4 5.6 4.3 5.6 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -7.4 -9.6 -10.0 -12.9 -11.3 -10.9 -12.5 -10.4 -9.4 -8.0 -7.9 -7.3 -5.8 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -3.2 -4.8 -4.9 -5.9 -4.2 -4.1 -4.3 -2.5 -0.4 1.4 1.3 1.0 2.2 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 69.6 72.8 73.8 84.0 85.1 88.3 96.8 103 92.5 84.2 90.2 92.9 88.9 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 24 24 27 25 27 26 22 19 22 26 28 26 25 29 TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 45 49 54 59 58 60 61 57 59 63 67 63 59 55 TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -25 -27 -34 -31 -34 -39 -39 -37 -37 -38 -37 -34 -26Trade balance (% of GDP) -11 -11 -12 -11 -11 -12 -12 -16 -15 -13 -10 -9 -6Current account balance ($bn) -4 -6 -10 -6 -3 -12 -20 -14 -6 -11 -11 -16 -17 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 -4 -6 -6 -2 -4 -3 -4 -4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 5 -1 6 4 4 7 8 7 8 9 8 8 na 1Net FDI (% of GDP) 2 0 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 na 1C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 0 -3 -2 -1 1 -2 -4 -3 1 -1 -1 -2 naExports (% YoY, value) -5 13 -7 8 -4 -15 -16 16 19 10 -8 -4 18Imports (% YoY, value) -3 10 9 -3 4 2 -6 3 7 5 -6 -6 -7FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 32 22 15 15 16 20 17 31 44 44 37 41 42Import cover (months of imports) 8 5 3 3 3 4 4 6 8 8 7 8 9External Debt ST external debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 34 35 34 43 46 48 56 79 93 109 130 135 140Gross external debt YE (% of GDP) 15 14 12 15 15 14 17 34 37 36 36 34 33Gross external debt YE (% of exports) 141 129 137 160 177 216 298 364 359 381 498 540 476Short-term external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 7 3 3 4 12 11 10 11 12 na na 1

Short-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 1 1 2 1 1 1 4 5 4 4 3 na na 1

Short-term external debt YE (% of exports) 13 11 27 10 13 20 64 51 40 40 47 na na 1

Short-term external debt to reserves (%) 10 13 44 19 20 23 70 36 24 26 33 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 3 3 3 3 3 6 5 7 13 13 14 15 16Total debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 5 4 4 4 4Total debt service (% of exports) 11 10 10 10 12 25 27 34 51 47 54 60 54Total debt service to reserves (%) 8 12 17 19 20 29 30 24 30 30 38 37 38Currency and monetary policyKey policy rate (% YE) 9.75 10.25 10.75 9.25 9.75 12.75 18.75 17.75 16.75 10.25 9.25 9.25 1Broad money growth (%YoY) 10.4 10.0 8.4 18.4 17.0 16.4 18.6 39.3 18.5 19.5 7.2 8.9 10.0Exchange rate (€) annual average 7.67 7.95 8.04 8.37 9.63 8.85 0.00 16.71 21.15 20.07 17.85 18.86 20.67Exchange rate ($) annual average 5.52 5.82 6.01 6.46 7.02 7.35 8.15 14.81 17.75 17.57 16.10 15.86 16.56Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Ba1 B2 B2 Caa1 Caa1 B3 B3 B3 B3 B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's BB+ B+ B- B- B- B- B- B- B B B B naFitch BB+ BB- B+ B- B B B B B B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Transparency International, WJP, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital



41

Estonia 21 EST 939 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 43: Estonia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/AA-/AA- EODB Rank: 18 (16) - Strong Corruption Rank: 17 (18) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 97 (96) - Strong

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 2.7 7.4 3.1 1.3 3.0 1.8 3.2 5.5 4.4 5.0 -2.9 3.4 4.2 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 21.5 25.4 29.1 27.0 26.9 24.8 24.9 26.7 26.7 27.7 30.7 29.8 30.4 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 16.7 12.3 10.0 8.6 7.4 6.2 6.8 5.8 5.4 4.4 6.8 7.1 6.5 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 14.9 16.8 18.1 19.0 20.2 20.8 21.9 23.9 25.9 28.1 27.2 28.9 31.0 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 19.7 23.4 23.2 25.3 26.8 23.1 24.3 26.9 30.6 31.5 31.0 35.2 38.2 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 LPGDP per capita ($) 14,818 17,644 17,545 19,180 20,387 17,531 18,445 20,451 23,181 23,720 23,330 26,470 28,767 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 13.7 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.5 14.2 15.2 15.3 16.1 16.6 17.4 na naLending/GDP (%) 92.0 77.3 72.4 69.0 66.8 68.5 69.2 64.1 61.9 59.0 64.1 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 23.3 26.8 27.3 27.3 27.6 26.6 26.1 29.0 27.7 29.7 29.6 30.2 29.9 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.7 5.1 4.2 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 3.7 3.4 2.3 -0.6 1.8 2.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.4 4.1 3.6 2.0 0.1 -0.2 2.4 3.8 3.3 1.8 -0.9 1.8 2.5 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.2 1.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 -5.4 -7.1 -6.3 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 0.0 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 -5.4 -7.1 -6.3 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 6.6 6.1 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.0 9.9 9.1 8.2 8.4 18.5 25.1 30.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 9 12 17 16 16 16 13 13 15 17 16 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 10 12 17 18 18 18 15 15 17 19 18 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -3 -3 -9 -8 -8 -7 -7 -8 -7 -6 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 2 1 -2 0 1 2 1 2 1 2 -1 0 0 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 7 10 2 1 2 -1 2 4 5 3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 9 12 0 1 3 1 4 6 6 5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 28 44 -4 1 -2 -20 3 11 17 -5 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 21 42 4 2 -1 -21 3 11 15 -6 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na 2.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 22 22 24 24 23 21 20 23 23 23 28 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 112 92 102 96 86 91 83 87 74 74 91 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 190 129 147 148 143 163 153 161 134 144 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 8 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 6 7 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 41 41 48 44 39 45 38 33 20 24 27 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 70 58 69 68 65 82 71 62 37 46 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na 425 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na 7.4 6.8 9.9 11.6 9.5 6.2 10.1 9.5 19.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.22 1.23

Credit rating history Latest

Moody's A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's A AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- naFitch A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- naNote: 2021-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




42

Ethiopia 22 ETH 644 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 44: Ethiopia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2 *-/B- *-/CCC EODB Rank: 159 (159) - Weak Corruption Rank: 94 (96) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 15 (11) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 10.6 11.4 8.7 9.9 10.3 10.4 8.0 10.2 7.7 9.0 6.1 2.0 8.7 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 25.5 32.1 37.1 34.1 38.0 39.4 37.3 38.4 34.2 35.3 30.8 30.3 28.7 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 386 515 747 867 1,061 1,298 1,568 1,833 2,200 2,691 3,374 4,108 4,944 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 26.9 30.5 42.2 46.5 54.2 63.1 72.1 76.8 80.2 92.6 96.6 94.0 92.9 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 82.9 84.2 85.6 87.0 88.3 89.8 91.2 92.7 94.1 95.6 97.2 99 100 LPGDP per capita ($) 324 362 493 535 613 703 791 829 852 968 994 952 926 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 71 107 168 211 273 363 443 546 683 854 na na naLending/GDP (%) 18.5 20.8 22.4 24.4 25.7 27.9 28.2 29.8 31.0 31.7 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 24.4 33.1 31.1 28.1 30.7 31.4 32.4 30.2 32.3 29.9 26.6 27.1 25.1 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.1 33.2 24.1 8.1 7.4 9.6 6.6 10.7 13.8 15.8 20.4 13.1 8.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 14.6 35.9 15.0 7.7 7.1 9.4 6.2 16.5 10.6 19.5 18.2 8.4 8.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.3 -1.6 -1.2 -1.9 -2.6 -1.9 -2.3 -3.2 -3.0 -2.5 -2.8 -3.3 -2.2 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -1.6 -2.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.0 -2.4 -2.7 -1.4 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 39.6 45.3 42.2 47.5 47.6 54.5 54.9 57.7 61.1 57.7 55.3 56.0 56.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 9 9 10 13 13 18 23 23 22 23 23 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -8 -8 -11 -10 -15 -20 -20 -19 -20 -20 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -30 -26 -25 -22 -28 -32 -28 -25 -25 -22 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -7 -7 -7 -5 -5 -4 -3 -4 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -2 -3 -7 -6 -7 -12 -9 -9 -7 -5 -5 -4 -4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 1 0 1 2 3 4 4 3 3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 2 1 3 3 4 6 5 4 3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 -1 -6 -3 -3 -8 -3 -3 -2 -3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 43 31 17 33 19 5 -13 8 -7 14 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 6 4 32 1 44 27 -1 -4 2 2 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.4 3.5 3.8 3.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 2.9 3.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.5 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 7 8 11 12 17 20 22 25 27 28 29 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 26 28 25 27 32 32 31 33 34 30 30 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 541 492 525 464 537 604 771 800 927 836 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 11 11 11 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 15 14 12 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 46 33 20 27 26 32 55 358 392 328 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 27 20 18 30 23 28 53 369 288 366 37 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 13.8 20.1 21.4 24.6 23.9 31.4 43.1 47.8 56.8 66.8 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 8.0 12.1 18.6 27.7 21.5 27.4 41.3 49.3 41.7 74.6 83.0 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 26.6 39.2 30.3 24.2 26.5 24.7 19.9 28.8 29.2 19.7 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 19.0 23.5 22.8 24.7 26.0 22.8 24.1 27.0 32.4 32.5 39.9 53.8 66.1Exchange rate ($) annual average 14.4 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.6 20.6 21.7 23.9 27.4 29.1 34.9 43.7 53.2Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B2 *- naStandard & Poor's - - - - B B B B B B B B- *- naFitch - - - - B B B B B B B CCC naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Gabon 23 GAB 646 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 45: Gabon key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa1/NR/CCC EODB Rank: 169 (169) - Weak Corruption Rank: 129 (123) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.3 7.1 5.3 5.5 4.4 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.8 3.9 -1.8 1.2 2.7 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 26.1 23.8 29.1 33.3 35.9 34.8 34.4 31.9 30.5 31.4 29.7 31.5 30.8 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 7,111 8,582 8,766 8,691 8,988 8,503 8,311 8,669 9,369 9,887 8,990 9,885 9,972 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 14.4 18.2 17.2 17.6 18.2 14.4 14.0 14.9 16.9 16.9 15.6 18.4 18.8 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 LPGDP per capita ($) 8,933 10,893 9,903 9,761 9,747 7,453 7,082 7,370 8,221 8,111 7,421 8,601 8,684 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 584 818 991 1,305 1,307 1,234 1,149 1,137 1,226 1,254 0 na naLending/GDP (%) 8.2 9.5 11.3 15.0 14.5 14.5 13.8 13.1 13.1 12.7 0.0 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 41.0 47.8 47.0 40.5 43.5 29.2 24.1 24.8 27.2 29.6 24.6 31.2 30.6 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.4 1.3 2.7 0.5 4.5 -0.1 2.1 2.7 4.8 2.0 1.3 2.0 2.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 0.7 2.3 2.2 3.3 1.7 -1.2 4.1 1.1 6.3 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 2.7 1.7 6.2 -3.1 6.0 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -0.2 2.1 -1.7 -0.7 0.3 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 4.1 2.8 7.3 -1.5 7.6 0.9 -2.4 0.8 2.2 4.4 1.3 2.1 3.1 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 21.3 21.4 21.4 31.1 34.1 44.7 64.2 62.9 60.9 59.5 72.5 71.1 70.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 5 9 13 8 7 7 5 4 4 5 6 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 3 3 4 4 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 6 10 5 3 3 2 1 2 3 3 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 39 53 27 14 15 13 8 11 18 19 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 2 4 3 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 15 24 18 7 8 -6 -10 -7 -3 -2 -5 0 0 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 6 -1 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 16 30 17 13 14 2 -2 2 5 8 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 60 57 -37 -15 -8 -29 -25 13 34 5 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 15 33 1 22 -15 -27 -18 -2 2 2 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 na na na naImport cover (months of imports) 7 7 7 8 7 8 4 5 7 na na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 4 5 5 8 8 10 10 11 10 9 10 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 31 29 30 46 47 67 73 73 61 56 64 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 52 39 61 113 128 206 290 274 194 168 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 4 4 6 4 7 12 5 4 5 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 8 5 8 14 12 22 48 18 13 14 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 38 34 27 34 32 55 212 72 51 na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3 2 2 7 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 3 5 16 8 10 11 16 13 12 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 26 19 18 39 21 25 47 65 53 na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 20.7 27.1 10.0 10.9 -2.6 0.4 -4.0 -17.4 33.2 1.4 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 657 662 660Exchange rate ($) annual average 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 555 586 575 538 531Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - Ba3 Ba3 B1 B3 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ NR NR NR NR NR NR naFitch BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B B B CCC CCC naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Georgia 24 GEO 915 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 46: Georgia key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB/BB EODB Rank: 7 (6) - Strong Corruption Rank: 45 (44) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 63 (64) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.2 7.4 6.4 3.6 4.4 3.0 2.9 4.8 4.8 5.0 -6.2 5.5 5.0 NGDP_RPCHUnemployment rate (%) year-end 17.4 17.3 17.2 16.9 14.6 14.1 14.0 13.9 12.7 10.9 12.0 11.5 10.5 NID_NGDPNominal GDP (GELbn) 21.8 25.5 27.2 28.6 31.1 33.9 35.8 40.8 44.6 49.3 49.4 54.2 58.7 LURNominal GDP ($bn) 12.2 15.1 16.5 17.2 17.7 14.9 15.1 16.2 17.6 17.5 15.9 17.4 19.8 NGDPPopulation (mn) 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 NGDPDGDP per capita ($) 3,244 4,041 4,434 4,634 4,751 4,000 4,058 4,354 4,727 4,703 4,275 4,701 5,334 LPGross national saving (% of GDP) 10.8 10.0 14.4 15.4 15.3 14.5 17.7 19.2 21.4 23.8 14.9 12.6 16.8 NGDPDPCLoans to non-banking sector (GELbn) 5.9 7.4 8.4 10.1 12.5 15.5 18.5 21.8 25.9 31.1 37.4 41.9 48.1Loans to non-banking sector to GDP (%) 27.2 29.2 30.7 35.4 40.1 45.7 51.7 53.4 58.1 63.1 75.6 77.2 81.9Deposits (GELbn) 5.8 7.4 8.2 10.3 12.4 15.5 18.3 20.9 23.9 27.2 35.4 39.3 46.4 NGSD_NGDPLoan to deposit ratio (%) 102 101 102 98 100 100 101 104 108 114 106 106 104Prices PCPIPCHCPI (average % YoY) 7.1 8.7 -0.9 -0.5 3.1 4.0 2.2 6.0 2.6 4.9 5.2 4.0 3.2 PCPIEPCHCPI (end-year % YoY) 11.2 2.0 -1.4 2.4 2.0 4.9 1.8 6.7 1.5 7.0 2.4 3.4 3.0Nominal wages (monthly), GEL 598 636 713 773 818 900 940 999 1,068 1,130 1,227 1,289 1,372 GGXCNL_NGDPWage rate (% YoY, nominal) 7.3 6.4 12.0 8.5 5.8 10.1 4.4 6.3 6.9 5.7 8.7 5.0 6.5 GGXONLB_NGDPFiscal balance (% of GDP) GGXWDG_NGDPCentral government budget -4.2 -1.2 -0.4 -1.4 -2.1 -1.1 -1.6 -1.2 -1.7 -3.0 -8.6 -7.0 -4.0General government budget 1 -4.3 -0.8 -0.6 -1.1 -1.9 -1.0 -1.3 -0.8 -0.7 -2.8 -7.6 -3.9 -1.8 TXG_FOB_USDTotal public debt (% of GDP) 5 42.0 37.0 35.0 36.7 35.6 41.4 44.4 45.1 44.5 47.0 62.4 61.7 57.8 TMG_CIF_USDExternal balanceExports ($bn) 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 5Imports ($bn) 5 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 9 9 7 8 9 BCATrade balance ($bn) -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 BCA_NGDPDTrade balance (% of GDP) -21 -23 -26 -20 -24 -26 -26 -24 -23 -21 -20 -21 -21Current account balance ($bn) -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1Current account balance (% of GDP) -10 -12 -11 -6 -10 -12 -12 -8 -7 -5 -12 -10 -7Net FDI ($bn) 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2Net FDI (% of GDP) 7 8 6 6 10 12 11 12 7 8 4 7 8Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3 -5 -5 0 0 0 -2 4 0 2 -9 -3 1Exports (% YoY, value) 29 35 7 21 -5 -24 -5 25 23 12 -12 10 9Imports (% YoY, value) 18 34 14 0 8 -16 -3 9 15 2 -14 12 11Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.2Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 3.9 4.3 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.8 6.3 5.7 5.4Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 10.2 11.7 13.4 13.4 14.0 15.3 15.9 17.3 17.8 18.6 20.3 21.2 21.6Gross external debt (% of GDP) 83.7 77.5 83.4 81.8 83.9 108 110 112 101 107 128 122 109Gross external debt (% of exports) 428 364 388 320 350 507 556 485 404 377 466 445 418Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (% YoY) year-end 27.0 27.8 7.6 33.2 9.1 -3.8 14.8 27.9 15.9 18.8 18.8 11.0 16.0Key policy rate (%) year-end 7.50 6.75 5.25 3.75 4.00 8.00 6.50 7.25 7.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00Exchange rate (GEL/EUR) year-end 2.35 2.16 2.18 2.39 2.27 2.61 2.80 3.13 3.07 3.21 4.02 3.57 3.74Exchange rate (GEL/EUR) annual average 2.36 2.35 2.12 2.21 2.35 2.52 2.61 2.83 2.99 3.15 3.56 3.78 3.65Exchange rate (GEL/$) year-end 1.77 1.67 1.65 1.74 1.87 2.40 2.66 2.60 2.68 2.86 3.29 2.90 3.02Exchange rate (GEL/$) annual average 1.78 1.69 1.65 1.66 1.76 2.28 2.37 2.51 2.53 2.82 3.12 3.11 2.97Credit rating history LatestMoody's Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB BB BB naFitch B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB BB BB na

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Bloomberg, National Bank of Georgia, Renaissance Capital



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Ghana 25 GHA 652 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 47: Ghana key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/B EODB Rank: 118 (114) - Middle Corruption Rank: 75 (80) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 53 (55) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 7.9 17.4 9.0 7.9 2.8 2.1 3.4 8.1 6.2 6.6 0.3 4.3 4.2 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% of GDP) 51.2 24.7 33.2 26.5 29.3 29.8 27.6 22.0 24.6 26.4 21.7 23.8 25.5 NID_NGDPIndustry, value added (% YOY) -10.1 1.1 4.3 15.7 10.6 7.2 9.0 9.0 LUROil production, mbd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 NGDPNominal GDP (GHSbn) 61.6 81.1 101 124 155 180 215 257 301 349 383 442 504 NGDPDNominal GDP (€bn) 32.5 37.6 42.7 44.5 38.4 43.3 49.6 52.3 54.9 57.8 57.0 58.7 61.4 LPNominal GDP (US$bn) 43.1 52.3 54.8 59.2 50.6 47.8 54.6 58.3 63.7 64.8 66.2 71.6 74.9 NGDPDPCPopulation (m) 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.7 28.3 28.9 29.6 30.2 30.8 31.3 32.1GDP per capita (US$) 1,747 2,071 2,120 2,234 1,869 1,723 1,926 2,016 2,156 2,147 2,150 2,289 2,335Gross national saving (% of GDP) 44.7 18.1 24.5 17.3 22.5 21.3 22.6 18.9 21.4 26.2 19.9 20.2 19.6 NGSD_NGDPBank credit to private sector (GHSbn) 8.1 9.8 13.1 17.0 24.2 30.3 35.0 38.9 43.0 49.4 54.8 63.1 75.7Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 13.1 12.1 12.9 13.7 15.6 16.8 16.3 15.1 14.3 14.1 14.3 14.3 15.0 PCPIPCHLoan to deposit ratio 69.6 62.5 69.1 75.0 78.0 75.0 71.0 67.0 65.0 63.0 62.0 62.0 63.0 PCPIEPCHPricesCPI (average %YoY) 10.8 8.7 9.6 10.7 15.5 17.2 17.5 12.3 9.4 9.3 9.9 10.2 9.0 GGXCNL_NGDPCPI (end-year %YoY) 8.6 8.6 8.8 13.5 17.0 17.7 15.4 11.8 9.1 9.3 10.5 9.5 8.5 GGXONLB_NGDPFiscal balance (% of GDP) GGXWDG_NGDPGeneral government budget balance -7.5 -5.5 -8.4 -9.2 -8.0 -4.1 -6.9 -4.1 -7.0 -7.5 -16.0 -12.6 -10.4Total public debt 5 34.6 31.4 35.6 43.2 51.2 54.8 57.1 58.3 63.2 63.9 78.0 81.5 83.2 TXG_FOB_USDExternal balance 6 TMG_CIF_USDExports (US$bn) 8 13 14 14 13 10 11 14 15 16 15 16 17Imports (US$bn) 11 16 17 18 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14Trade balance (US$bn) -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 -2 1 2 2 2 2 2 BCATrade balance (% of GDP) -7 -6 -6 -7 -4 -7 -4 2 3 3 3 3 3 BCA_NGDPDCurrent account balance (US$bn) -3 -4 -4 -6 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2Current account balance (% of GDP) -6 -7 -7 -10 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3Net FDI (US$bn) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3Net FDI (% of GDP) 6 6 6 5 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 -1 -1 -4 -1 0 0 2 1 3 2 1 1Exports (%YoY, value) 34 62 6 1 -8 -18 7 25 8 5 -6 7 6Imports (%YoY, value) 36 46 5 5 -17 -7 -4 -3 4 2 -5 6 5Gross international reserves (US$bn) 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 8Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 7 6Debt indicatorsGross external debt (US$bn) 6 8 9 12 15 16 17 17 18 20 26 25 26Gross external debt (% of GDP) 15 15 17 21 29 33 32 30 29 31 39 34 34Gross external debt (% of exports) 81 60 69 90 114 153 158 125 122 130 174 157 155Total debt service (US$bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1Total debt service (% of GDP) 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 2Total debt service (% of exports) 3 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 5 5 8 7 7Interest & exchange ratesMonetary policy rate, %YE 13.5 12.5 15.0 16.0 21.0 26.0 25.5 20.0 17.0 16.0 14.5 14.5 13.5Broad money supply (%YoY) 45.4 30.2 22.9 18.2 33.1 26.6 24.6 19.8 16.1 13.0 14.0 14.0 14.03-month interest rate (t-bill YE %) 12.3 10.7 23.1 19.2 25.8 23.1 16.4 13.3 14.6 14.7 14.0 13.5 13.5Exchange rate (GHS/EUR) year-end 1.99 2.13 2.51 3.28 3.90 4.13 4.45 5.34 5.60 6.28 7.17 7.95 8.52Exchange rate (GHS/EUR) annual average 1.90 2.16 2.38 2.78 4.05 4.17 4.34 4.91 5.47 6.04 6.72 7.56 8.24Exchange rate (GHS/$) year-end 1.49 1.64 1.90 2.38 3.22 3.81 4.24 4.52 4.91 5.71 5.87 6.47 6.98Exchange rate (GHS/$) annual average 1.43 1.55 1.85 2.09 3.07 3.78 3.94 4.40 4.72 5.40 5.79 6.17 6.72Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - B1 B2 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's B B B B B- B- B- B- B B B- B- naFitch B+ B+ B+ B B B B B B B B B naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




46

Greece 26 GRC 174 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 48: Greece key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/BB/BB EODB Rank: 79 (72) - Middle Corruption Rank: 59 (60) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 65 (66) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) -5.5 -10.1 -7.1 -2.7 0.7 -0.4 -0.5 1.3 1.6 1.9 -8.2 3.8 5.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 18.0 14.0 12.1 12.0 11.9 12.1 12.8 12.4 13.3 12.7 13.5 13.9 14.3 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 12.7 17.9 24.4 27.5 26.5 24.9 23.6 21.5 19.3 17.3 16.4 16.6 15.2 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 224 203 188 180 177 176 174 177 180 183 166 172 182 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 297 283 242 239 236 195 193 200 212 205 189 210 225 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 LPGDP per capita ($) 26,743 25,437 21,846 21,680 21,568 17,997 17,880 18,578 19,769 19,147 17,670 19,673 21,160 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 252 243 223 213 208 199 189 179 165 148 136.1 na naLending/GDP (%) 113 119 119 119 117 113 109 100.8 91.7 80.9 82.1 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 7.9 3.9 9.7 9.4 9.5 10.6 10.4 9.8 9.8 10.5 6.0 7.1 10.3 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.7 3.1 1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.1 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.5 -1.3 0.2 0.8 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.2 2.2 0.3 -1.8 -2.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.1 -2.4 0.8 0.8 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -11.3 -10.5 -6.7 -3.6 -4.1 -2.8 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.6 -9.9 -8.9 -2.6 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -5.2 -2.8 -1.3 0.5 -0.1 0.8 3.8 4.2 4.3 3.6 -7.0 -6.0 0.3 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 147 184 162 179 182 179 183 182 190 185 213 210 200 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 25 28 34 35 36 36 29 28 33 40 38 33 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 74 66 67 62 61 62 47 47 53 64 62 54 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -38 -33 -26 -25 -26 -18 -19 -21 -24 -24 -21 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -13 -12 -11 -10 -11 -9 -10 -10 -11 -12 -11 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -30 -29 -6 -6 -6 -3 -5 -5 -8 -5 -14 -14 -8 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -10 -10 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -7 -7 -3 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) -1 -1 1 4 0 0 4 3 3 4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 2 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -10 -10 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 11 21 5 2 0 -21 -1 16 21 -4 -13 na naImports (% YoY, value) -11 1 -8 -1 2 -25 0 14 19 -2 -13 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na 5.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na 1.1 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 545 480 578 575 515 480 455 484 473 498 572 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 183 170 239 241 219 246 236 242 223 243 302 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 1,945 1,421 1,637 1,592 1,433 1,682 1,617 1,484 1,198 1,314 1,734 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 244 235 216 159 157 169 147 127 91 117 173 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 82 83 89 67 67 87 76 64 43 57 91 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 872 695 612 441 436 592 524 390 231 309 525 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na 3,458 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policyKey policy rate (% YE) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) -10.8 -14.5 -5.4 2.5 -0.3 -17.8 2.2 5.7 4.3 4.2 12.1 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.22 1.23


Moody's Ba1 Ca C Caa3 Caa1 Caa3 Caa3 Caa2 Caa2 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's BB+ CC B- B- B CCC+ B- B- B+ BB- BB- BB naFitch BBB- CCC CCC B- B CCC CCC B- BB- BB- BB BB naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Transparency International, WJP, Bloomberg, Bank of Greece



47

Hungary 27 HUN 944 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 49: Hungary key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB/BBB EODB Rank: 52 (53) - Middle Corruption Rank: 69 (70) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 42 (43) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 1.1 1.9 -1.4 1.9 4.2 3.8 2.1 4.3 5.4 4.6 -5.0 4.3 5.9 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 20.4 20.2 19.2 20.8 23.3 23.1 21.0 22.6 26.5 28.0 27.5 26.6 27.1 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 10.8 10.7 10.7 9.8 7.5 6.6 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.3 4.1 3.8 3.5 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 27,431 28,502 28,920 30,291 32,742 34,937 36,167 39,233 43,347 47,514 47,605 50,862 54,955 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 132 142 128 135 141 125 128 143 160 163 155 177 194 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 LPGDP per capita ($) 13,173 14,196 12,936 13,666 14,252 12,690 13,069 14,591 16,406 16,726 15,820 18,075 19,883 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 16,545 16,653 14,580 13,987 13,962 12,279 12,099 12,741 14,053 15,903 18,915 na naLending/GDP (%) 60.3 58.4 50.4 46.2 42.6 35.1 33.5 32.5 32.4 33.5 39.7 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 20.8 20.9 20.9 24.4 24.6 25.6 25.6 24.8 26.9 27.9 27.5 26.2 26.8 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.9 3.9 5.7 1.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.7 4.1 5.0 0.4 -0.9 0.9 1.8 2.1 2.7 4.0 2.7 3.9 3.7 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.4 -5.2 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -2.0 -1.8 -2.4 -2.1 -2.0 -8.5 -6.5 -4.8 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -0.7 -1.5 1.9 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -6.6 -6.1 -4.0 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 80.2 80.4 78.4 77.4 76.7 75.8 74.9 72.2 69.1 65.3 81.2 80.0 78.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 83 95 112 104 108 111 99 102 114 125 124 120 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 78 88 102 95 100 105 92 94 108 121 121 113 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 7 10 8 7 6 7 8 6 4 3 7 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 6 7 7 5 4 5 6 4 2 2 4 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0 1 2 5 2 3 6 3 0 0 0 -1 -1 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 0 0 2 3 1 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 2 3 2 4 2 3 2 3 3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1 2 4 5 4 4 7 4 2 1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 15 18 -8 4 3 -11 3 12 10 -1 -3 na naImports (% YoY, value) 13 16 -7 5 5 -12 2 15 12 0 -6 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 45 49 45 46 42 33 26 28 30 30 39 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 210 212 207 203 186 159 147 154 153 143 218 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 159 150 161 150 132 127 114 108 96 88 141 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 220 189 200 189 168 161 144 135 123 116 181 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 33 32 23 23 20 16 14 14 15 15 20 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 25 22 18 17 14 13 11 10 9 9 13 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 34 28 22 21 18 16 14 13 12 12 17 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 73 65 51 49 47 48 54 52 50 48 51 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policyKey policy rate (% YE) 5.8 7.0 5.8 3.0 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8Broad money growth (%YoY) 3.0 5.9 -3.3 5.5 5.1 6.3 7.1 7.8 11.8 8.1 20.9 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 276 280 289 297 309 310 312 310 319 325 351 354 352Exchange rate ($) annual average 208 201 225 224 233 279 282 274 270 291 308 288 283Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BB+ BB BB BB BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB naFitch BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB na

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Transparency International, WJP, Bloomberg, FocusEconomics



48

Iceland 28 ISL 176 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 50: Iceland key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A2/A/A EODB Rank: 26 (21) - Strong Corruption Rank: 17 (11) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) -2.8 1.8 1.1 4.6 1.7 4.4 6.3 4.2 4.7 2.6 -6.6 3.7 3.6 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 13.9 15.6 16.0 15.5 17.2 19.4 21.1 21.7 22.0 20.6 21.7 22.0 21.6 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 8.3 7.7 6.6 5.8 5.4 4.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.9 6.4 6.0 5.0 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 1,681 1,765 1,845 1,970 2,086 2,311 2,512 2,642 2,840 3,045 2,941 3,132 3,318 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 13.8 15.2 14.8 16.1 17.9 17.5 20.8 24.7 26.2 24.8 21.7 24.2 25.2 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 LPGDP per capita ($) 43,293 47,799 46,160 50,100 54,864 53,228 62,530 73,085 75,260 69,572 59,634 65,273 66,961 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 2,683 2,407 2,174 2,112 1,966 2,016 2,115 2,294 2,586 2,687 2,937 na naLending/GDP (%) 160 136 118 107 94.2 87.2 84.2 86.8 91.0 88.2 99.9 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 7.8 10.9 12.4 21.7 21.6 25.0 29.2 26.0 25.7 27.0 22.7 23.1 23.3 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.4 4.0 5.2 3.9 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.2 2.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 2.5 5.3 4.2 4.1 0.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 3.7 2.0 3.6 2.6 2.5 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -6.7 -6.5 -2.6 -1.2 0.3 -0.4 12.5 1.0 0.9 -1.5 -7.3 -10.2 -8.9 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -4.2 -4.2 0.3 1.9 3.8 3.2 15.5 4.0 3.1 0.5 -5.0 -7.8 -4.5 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 133 138 134 122 115 97.2 79.9 69.4 61.1 68.3 79.9 82.5 86.1 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 5 3 2 0 -2 -3 -6 -8 -9 -6 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -6 -5 -4 6 4 6 8 4 4 6 1 1 2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 3 1 4 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 19 7 29 0 4 4 3 1 -2 -3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 13 2 25 6 8 10 12 5 2 3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 13 16 -5 -1 1 -6 -6 9 9 -1 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 9 23 -1 5 7 -1 7 22 11 -13 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 6 8 4 4 4 5 7 6 6 7 6 na naImport cover (months of imports) 17 21 10 10 9 11 15 11 10 12 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 119 111 102 107 98 30 25 22 20 19 19 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 869 728 691 667 547 173 122 90 75 77 87 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 2,597 2,077 2,013 2,151 1,936 638 568 457 369 364 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 69 66 71 33 27 11 2 1 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 498 435 482 203 151 65 8 6 5 5 6 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 1,489 1,240 1,404 657 534 241 36 31 27 25 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 1,202 783 1,740 789 658 229 23 23 23 20 21 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.5 4.8 6.0 6.0 4.5 5.8 5.0 4.3 4.5 3.0 0.8 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) -10.0 5.7 -4.6 4.7 5.8 5.6 -4.6 5.0 7.0 6.6 7.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 162 161 161 162 155 146 134 121 128 137 155 159 164Exchange rate ($) annual average 122 116 125 122 117 132 121 107 108 123 135 130 132Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 A3 A3 A3 A2 A2 A2 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB+ A A A A A naFitch BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ A A A A A naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




49

India 29 IND 534 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 51: India key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB-u/BBB- EODB Rank: 63 (77) - Middle Corruption Rank: 86 (80) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 36 (37) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 10.3 6.6 5.5 6.4 7.4 8.0 8.3 6.8 6.5 4.0 -8.0 12.5 6.9 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 36.5 39.6 38.3 34.0 34.3 32.1 30.2 31.0 32.1 30.7 28.4 30.1 30.7 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 78 87 99 112 125 138 154 171 189 204 196 228 255 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 1,708 1,823 1,828 1,857 2,039 2,104 2,294 2,651 2,701 2,871 2,709 3,050 3,313 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 1,234 1,250 1,266 1,281 1,296 1,310 1,325 1,339 1,353 1,368 1,379 1,392 1,405 LPGDP per capita ($) 1,384 1,458 1,444 1,450 1,574 1,606 1,732 1,981 1,997 2,099 1,965 2,191 2,358 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 38.6 44.8 51.6 58.8 64.7 71.4 75.6 83.4 95.1 102 na na naLending/GDP (%) 49.6 51.3 51.9 52.4 51.9 51.9 49.1 48.8 50.4 50.1 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 33.7 35.4 33.5 32.3 33.0 31.1 29.5 29.1 30.0 29.8 29.4 28.9 29.1 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 10.5 9.5 10.0 9.4 5.8 4.9 4.5 3.6 3.4 4.8 6.2 4.9 4.1 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 9.2 8.8 10.5 7.7 5.3 5.3 3.6 4.6 2.5 6.7 4.9 4.8 3.9 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -8.6 -8.3 -7.6 -7.0 -7.1 -7.2 -7.1 -6.4 -6.3 -7.4 -12.3 -10.0 -9.1 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -4.4 -4.0 -3.2 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.5 -1.6 -1.6 -2.8 -6.8 -4.5 -3.6 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 66.0 68.3 67.7 67.4 66.8 68.8 68.7 69.5 70.2 73.9 89.6 86.6 86.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 165 223 307 297 315 318 266 262 296 323 325 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 258 351 465 490 468 461 392 356 443 509 480 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -128 -158 -193 -153 -143 -126 -94 -147 -186 -155 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -7 -9 -11 -8 -7 -6 -4 -6 -7 -5 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -48 -78 -88 -32 -27 -22 -14 -49 -57 -25 27 -36 -54 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -3 -4 -5 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 1 -1 -2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 11 24 16 27 23 36 39 29 31 38 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2 -3 -4 0 0 1 1 -1 -1 0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 35 38 -3 6 1 -16 -2 13 9 0 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 36 33 5 -5 -2 -15 -9 24 15 -6 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 275 271 271 276 303 334 341 389 374 432 549.1 na naImport cover (months of imports) 9.4 7.0 6.6 7.1 7.9 10.2 11.5 10.5 8.8 10.8 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 306 345 394 427 458 479 456 513 521 564 556 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 18 19 22 23 22 23 20 19 19 20 21 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 137 112 133 135 144 180 174 173 161 174 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 61 76 93 93 86 82 84 98 104 107 103 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 27 25 31 29 27 31 32 33 32 33 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 22 28 34 34 28 24 25 25 28 25 19 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 24 29 30 39 93 50 77 51 64 51 58 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 2 2 2 5 2 3 2 2 2 2 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 11 10 10 12 29 19 29 17 20 16 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 9 11 11 14 31 15 23 13 17 12 11 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 6.3 8.5 8.0 7.8 8.0 6.8 6.3 6.0 6.5 5.2 4.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 18.7 16.0 11.2 14.8 10.7 10.7 6.2 10.0 10.2 10.4 12.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 60.4 66.7 70.0 80.4 81.2 72.7 74.3 72.8 82.6 79.4 82.7 92.1 95.7Exchange rate ($) annual average 45.6 47.9 54.4 60.5 61.1 65.5 67.1 64.5 69.9 70.9 72.3 74.9 77.0Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB-u BBB-u BBB-u BBB-u BBB-u BBB-u naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




50

Indonesia 30 IDN 536 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 52: Indonesia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB/BBB EODB Rank: 73 (73) - Middle Corruption Rank: 102 (85) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 42 (40) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 -2.1 4.3 5.8 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 32.9 33.0 35.1 33.8 34.6 34.1 33.9 33.7 34.6 33.8 32.4 32.5 32.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.3 5.9 6.2 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3 7.1 6.5 5.8 LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 6,864 7,832 8,616 9,546 10,570 11,526 12,402 13,590 14,839 15,833 15,434 16,428 17,923 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 755 893 919 917 891 861 932 1,015 1,043 1,120 1,060 1,159 1,256 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 238 242 245 249 252 256 258 261 264 267 270 272 275 LPGDP per capita ($) 3,178 3,689 3,745 3,684 3,534 3,368 3,606 3,885 3,947 4,196 3,922 4,256 4,571 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 1,684 2,111 2,581 3,098 3,489 3,822 4,116 4,413 4,869 5,153 5,127 na naLending/GDP (%) 24.5 27.0 30.0 32.5 33.0 33.2 33.2 32.5 32.8 32.5 33.2 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 33.6 33.2 32.4 30.7 31.5 32.0 32.0 32.1 31.6 31.1 31.9 31.2 31.1 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 5.1 5.3 4.0 6.4 6.4 6.4 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.0 2.0 3.1 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 7.0 3.8 3.7 8.1 8.4 3.4 3.0 3.6 3.2 2.6 1.7 2.8 1.2 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.2 -0.7 -1.6 -2.2 -2.1 -2.6 -2.5 -2.5 -1.8 -2.2 -5.9 -6.1 -4.4 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 0.0 0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.9 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 0.0 -0.5 -3.8 -4.1 -2.4 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 24.5 23.1 23.0 24.8 24.7 27.0 28.0 29.4 30.4 30.6 36.6 41.4 42.8 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 116 158 203 190 183 176 150 137 169 174 167 163 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 96 136 177 192 187 178 143 136 157 192 174 142 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 22 26 -2 -4 -2 8 1 12 -18 -6 22 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 -2 -1 2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 5 2 -24 -29 -28 -18 -17 -16 -31 -30 -5 -15 -18 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 1 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 -1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 11 12 14 12 15 11 16 19 13 20 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2 1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 36 29 -7 -4 -3 -15 -9 23 3 -4 -2 na naImports (% YoY, value) 41 31 8 -3 -5 -20 -5 15 23 -10 -19 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 93 107 109 96 109 103 113 127 117 125 131 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 7 9 11 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 202 225 252 266 294 310 319 353 377 404 409 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 27 25 27 29 33 36 34 35 36 36 39 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 128 111 133 146 167 206 233 209 217 242 250 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 33 38 44 46 46 38 41 47 48 47 45 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 21 19 23 25 26 26 30 28 27 28 27 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 36 36 41 48 42 37 36 37 41 38 34 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 32 31 37 41 60 60 64 59 55 82 89 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 4 3 4 5 7 7 7 6 5 7 8 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 20 15 20 23 34 40 47 35 32 49 54 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 34 29 34 43 55 58 57 46 47 65 68 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 6.5 6.0 5.8 7.5 7.8 7.5 4.8 4.3 6.0 5.0 3.8 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 15.4 16.4 15.0 12.8 11.9 9.0 10.0 8.3 6.3 6.5 12.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 12,057 12,219 12,056 13,835 15,759 14,867 14,728 15,122 16,814 15,826 16,651 17,434 17,719

Exchange rate ($) annual average 9,088 8,774 9,375 10,414 11,862 13,391 13,306 13,383 14,231 14,136 14,565 14,177 14,267Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BB BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB naFitch BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Iran 31 IRN 429 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 53: Iran key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) -/-/WD EODB Rank: 127 (128) - Middle Corruption Rank: 149 (146) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 17 (21) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.8 2.6 -7.4 -0.2 4.6 -1.3 13.4 3.8 -6.0 -6.8 1.5 2.5 2.1 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 41.2 38.9 42.0 41.8 41.7 36.5 35.7 37.8 37.8 44.4 42.7 42.3 41.6 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 13.5 12.3 12.1 10.4 10.6 11.0 12.4 12.1 12.0 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.7 LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 5,036 6,396 7,342 9,934 11,517 11,414 13,151 15,317 19,129 24,413 33,152 47,732 61,494 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 487 580 392 400 433 385 418 446 457 581 636 683 715 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 74.2 75.2 76.0 76.9 78.5 79.5 80.5 81.4 82.4 83.3 84.1 85.0 85.8 LPGDP per capita ($) 6,564 7,719 5,159 5,200 5,519 4,845 5,196 5,472 5,544 6,980 7,555 8,034 8,329 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 2,620 3,396 3,918 4,743 6,003 6,823 8,688 na na na 0 na naLending/GDP (%) 52.0 53.1 53.4 47.7 52.1 59.8 66.1 na na na 0.0 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 45.6 49.3 47.5 47.5 44.5 36.9 38.9 41.2 43.7 45.0 42.0 43.4 42.8 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 12.3 21.5 30.6 34.7 15.6 11.9 9.1 9.6 30.2 34.6 36.5 39.0 27.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 19.8 20.6 41.3 19.6 16.2 8.4 11.8 8.3 48.8 22.0 48.0 30.0 25.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -1.6 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -5.1 -8.4 -6.8 -7.7 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.0 -1.1 -4.5 -7.5 -4.7 -4.6 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 14.0 10.9 11.7 10.3 11.0 14.0 44.7 36.9 38.5 47.9 42.8 36.6 36.2 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 65 86 112 83 62 64 39 47 66 72 31 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 50 67 65 61 49 51 41 43 52 44 27 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 19 47 22 14 13 -2 4 13 28 4 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 4 8 6 3 3 0 1 3 6 1 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 21 60 22 23 12 1 13 15 27 4 -4 8 9 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 4 10 6 6 3 0 3 3 6 1 -1 1 1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 3 4 3 3 2 2 3 5 2 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 5 11 6 6 3 1 4 4 6 1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 34 30 -26 -25 2 -38 19 40 9 -57 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 33 -2 -7 -20 5 -20 5 21 -15 -38 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 32 24 14 12 9 8 7 8 4 2 2 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 7 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 38 21 17 19 15 21 15 13 5 8 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 10 9 3 2 2 2 3 5 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 12 8 4 3 3 5 7 7 1 2 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 2 2 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 2 1 1 1 1 2 4 1 0 1 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na na na na na na na naBroad money growth (%YoY) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 13,724 15,355 24,068 32,985 35,331 32,913 34,821 38,847 49,499 47,023 59,615 85,957 106,859


Moody's - - - - - - - - - - - - naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Iraq 32 IRQ 433 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 54: Iraq key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa1/B-/B- EODB Rank: 172 (171) - Weak Corruption Rank: 160 (162) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.4 7.5 13.9 7.6 0.7 2.5 15.2 -3.4 0.8 4.5 -10.9 1.1 4.4 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 162 217 254 274 274 207 198 227 256 263 205 277 295 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 139 186 218 235 235 178 168 192 217 222 172 191 203 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 31.0 31.8 32.6 33.4 35.0 35.2 36.2 37.1 38.1 39.1 40.1 41.2 42.2 LPGDP per capita ($) 4,474 5,849 6,693 7,021 6,704 5,045 4,637 5,179 5,691 5,687 4,289 4,632 4,812 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 9 12 15 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 0 na naLending/GDP (%) 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.6 9.3 10.0 9.3 9.0 9.0 0.0 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 23.7 33.0 27.2 28.3 28.6 18.6 13.6 11.9 17.3 15.6 1.9 17.6 15.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.4 5.6 6.1 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.6 9.4 7.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.3 6.0 3.6 3.1 1.6 2.3 -1.5 0.2 -0.1 0.1 3.2 11.9 4.8 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.2 4.7 4.1 -6.1 -5.6 -12.8 -14.5 -1.5 8.2 0.9 -19.8 -9.2 -7.7 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -3.7 5.5 4.5 -5.7 -5.4 -12.2 -13.8 -0.5 9.5 1.9 -18.6 -8.1 -6.3 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 53.5 40.7 34.8 32.0 32.9 56.9 67.0 59.1 50.0 47.7 81.2 69.7 73.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 38 49 75 90 85 82 51 46 64 90 86 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 32 34 33 39 43 43 36 31 35 35 39 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 15 42 51 41 39 15 16 30 55 46 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 11 22 23 18 17 9 9 15 25 21 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 2 20 11 3 6 -11 -13 -9 10 1 -26 0 -1 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 2 11 5 1 3 -6 -7 -5 4 0 -15 0 -1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 2 3 -3 -10 -8 -7 -5 -5 -3 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 1 -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 3 12 6 0 -2 -11 -11 -7 2 -1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 30 52 21 -6 -3 -37 -10 39 40 -5 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 6 -2 18 11 -1 -16 -15 14 2 11 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 50 61 69 76 63 51 42 46 61 63 na na naImport cover (months of imports) 18 22 21 21 18 17 17 16 21 19 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 17 18 20 20 18 22 23 31 28 19 19 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 10 9 8 8 12 14 16 13 9 11 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 35 24 22 23 22 43 50 48 31 22 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 2 1 3 4 3 3 4 3 2 3 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 2 2 3 4 4 3 5 4 3 4 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 31.2 20.7 4.2 16.0 3.9 -9.1 7.0 2.6 2.7 na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1,552 1,629 1,499 1,549 1,549 1,295 1,306 1,336 1,397 1,323 1,361 1,783 1,801


Moody's - - - - - Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - B- B- B- B- B- B- B- naFitch - - - - - B- B- B- B- B- B- B- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Ivory Coast 33 CIV 662 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 55: Ivory Coast key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/-/B+ EODB Rank: 110 (122) - Middle Corruption Rank: 104 (106) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 25 (25) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 2.0 -4.9 10.9 9.3 8.8 8.8 7.2 7.4 6.9 6.2 2.3 6.0 6.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 15.7 7.2 17.9 23.3 23.5 23.5 21.7 20.1 21.2 20.1 21.9 22.7 23.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 17,036 16,743 18,906 21,350 24,136 27,086 28,424 29,955 32,222 34,299 35,290 37,691 40,531 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 34.4 35.5 37.0 43.2 48.9 45.8 48.0 51.6 58.0 58.5 61.4 71.0 77.3 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 20.9 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.3 25.0 25.6 26.3 27.0 27.7 28.4 LPGDP per capita ($) 1,651 1,660 1,687 1,919 2,115 1,932 1,972 2,067 2,265 2,228 2,278 2,567 2,725 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 2,262 2,277 2,536 3,024 3,543 4,535 5,069 5,870 6,265 6,739 na na naLending/GDP (%) 13.3 13.6 13.4 14.2 14.7 16.7 17.8 19.6 19.4 19.6 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 11.1 10.4 10.8 14.0 15.3 22.5 20.3 17.4 16.7 17.8 18.2 19.2 20.2 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.4 4.9 1.3 2.6 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.8 2.5 2.0 1.6 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.1 2.0 3.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 -0.2 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.4 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.3 -2.9 -2.3 -1.6 -1.6 -2.0 -3.0 -3.3 -2.9 -2.3 -5.9 -4.6 -3.6 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -0.2 -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.7 -2.1 -1.6 -0.8 -4.0 -2.6 -1.9 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 45.6 50.0 32.6 31.4 32.4 34.2 35.6 36.9 40.1 41.2 45.7 46.3 46.6 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 10 10 11 11 14 13 13 11 12 12 13 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 7 8 7 10 13 11 10 9 10 11 11 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 2 4 1 1 2 2 2 3 1 2 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 7 12 2 2 4 5 5 6 1 4 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 1 8 -1 -1 1 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2 8 0 0 2 1 0 -1 -3 -2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 0 8 -2 27 -7 -1 -14 15 -6 8 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 12 -15 49 28 -13 -6 -18 12 14 -4 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 12 13 16 na na naImport cover (months of imports) 19 22 15 12 13 13 13 14 15 18 na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 12 13 5 6 7 8 8 11 14 16 na na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 35 36 14 14 13 17 18 21 24 27 na na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 119 116 49 43 51 60 78 88 116 123 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 4 3 0 -1 0 3 3 3 5 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 10 12 10 0 -3 1 12 10 15 23 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 8 10 9 0 -4 1 14 11 14 19 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 5 3 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 7 7 7 8 8 6 14 18 14 24 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 6 6 6 8 9 7 17 19 12 19 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 19.1 11.0 4.9 11.3 14.2 18.2 11.0 9.2 13.4 10.8 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 657 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 657 653 651Exchange rate ($) annual average 495 471 511 494 494 591 593 581 555 586 575 531 524Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - B1 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - B B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Jordan 34 JOR 439 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 56: Jordan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/B+/BB- EODB Rank: 75 (104) - Middle Corruption Rank: 60 (60) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 53 (53) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.6 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 -2.0 2.0 2.7 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 29.5 26.9 24.9 22.0 21.5 20.8 19.4 20.3 17.6 16.7 18.8 18.7 18.9 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 12.5 12.9 12.2 12.6 11.9 13.1 15.3 18.3 18.6 19.1 22.7 na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 19 21 22 24 26 27 28 29 30 32 31 32 33 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 27 30 32 35 37 39 40 41 43 45 43 45 47 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 LPGDP per capita ($) 3,778 3,898 3,964 4,101 4,189 4,219 4,225 4,274 4,341 4,426 4,259 4,358 4,528 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 14 15 16 17 17 18 20 22 23 24 na na naLending/GDP (%) 71.3 71.8 71.3 70.5 66.7 66.7 71.0 74.9 76.4 76.9 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.6 16.9 10.0 11.8 14.4 11.8 9.7 9.7 10.7 14.6 10.7 10.4 14.9 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.9 4.2 4.6 4.9 3.0 -1.1 -0.6 3.6 4.5 0.7 0.4 2.3 2.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 5.6 3.0 6.3 3.0 1.6 -1.7 1.2 3.5 3.8 0.7 -0.3 2.5 2.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -7.8 -9.8 -14.3 -10.1 -8.5 -8.4 -3.7 -3.6 -4.7 -6.0 -8.9 -7.7 -6.0 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -5.8 -7.8 -11.8 -7.1 -5.0 -5.2 -0.8 -0.7 -1.4 -2.4 -4.8 -3.6 -2.1 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 59.4 62.1 70.5 75.6 75.0 78.4 77.4 76.0 75.1 78.0 88.5 91.2 91.0 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 5 6 7 7 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 14 16 19 21 22 23 20 17 20 20 19 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -10 -12 -13 -15 -16 -14 -11 -14 -14 -12 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -35 -41 -40 -44 -42 -35 -28 -34 -32 -28 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2 -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 -4 -4 -2 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -7 -10 -15 -10 -7 -9 -10 -11 -7 -2 -8 -8 -4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 6 5 5 6 6 4 4 5 2 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 -5 -10 -5 -1 -5 -6 -6 -5 0 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 18 13 20 -16 7 -7 -20 16 4 7 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 9 22 10 6 4 -11 -18 22 0 -5 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 13 11 8 13 15 15 14 13 12 12 na na naImport cover (months of imports) 10 7 5 7 8 9 10 8 7 8 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 17 18 19 24 25 26 27 29 31 32 36 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 63 59 59 69 67 68 68 71 73 72 83 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 288 261 232 349 342 388 503 467 478 463 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 10 10 11 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 16 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 36 35 33 37 34 30 29 29 31 32 36 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 163 152 131 189 171 173 213 188 206 203 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 74 89 131 97 81 77 82 89 114 114 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 5 5 8 8 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 13 14 12 14 18 31 46 30 35 48 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 6 8 12 7 9 14 18 14 19 27 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.0 4.3 4.8 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 4.8 5.5 4.8 3.3 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 11.5 8.1 3.4 9.7 6.9 8.1 4.0 0.2 1.2 4.8 5.8 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 0.94 0.99 0.91 0.94 0.94 0.79 0.78 0.80 0.84 0.79 0.81 0.87 0.88Exchange rate ($) annual average 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Ba2 Ba2 Ba2 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's BB BB BB BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naFitch - - - BB- BB- BB- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




55

Kazakhstan 35 KAZ 916 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 57: Kazakhstan key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB-/BBB EODB Rank: 25 (28) - Strong Corruption Rank: 94 (113) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 40 (39) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.3 7.4 4.8 6.0 4.2 1.2 1.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 -2.6 5.8 4.5 NGDP_RPCHPrivate consumption (% YoY) 11.8 12.0 10.1 10.6 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.5 6.1 6.1 -5.5 7.5 5.9 NID_NGDPGovernment consumption (% YoY) 2.7 11.9 13.5 1.7 9.8 2.4 2.3 2.1 -14.1 15.5 12.5 2.5 2.0 LURInvestment (% YoY) 3.8 3.4 9.9 5.5 4.4 4.2 3.0 4.5 5.4 13.8 0.0 7.4 6.5 NGDPIndustrial production (%YoY) 9.6 3.8 0.5 2.3 0.2 -0.6 -1.1 7.1 4.1 3.8 -0.7 4.5 5.0 NGDPDNominal GDP (KZTbn) 21,816 28,243 31,015 35,999 39,676 40,884 46,971 54,379 61,820 69,533 70,134 78,654 86,139 LPNominal GDP ($bn) 148 193 208 237 221 183 137 167 179 182 169 199 218 NGDPDPCPopulation (mn) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.3GDP per capita ($) 9,070 11,357 12,119 12,933 12,699 10,365 7,668 9,181 9,740 9,743 8,975 10,425 11,271Gross national saving (% of GDP) 26.3 28.3 26.3 25.4 28.6 24.6 21.9 23.3 25.2 23.5 26.8 27.3 27.3 NGSD_NGDPStock of bank credit to corp/households (KZTbn) 7,592 8,781 9,958 11,292 12,106 12,674 12,708 12,705 13,092 13,864 14,623 16,085 17,855Stock of bank credit to corp/households (% of GDP)34.8 31.1 32.1 31.4 30.5 31.0 27.1 23.4 21.2 19.9 20.9 20.5 20.7 PCPIPCHDeposits (KZTbn) 6,236 7,128 7,671 8,891 9,812 13,778 15,506 15,111 15,410 16,359 19,260 20,750 22,600 PCPIEPCHLoan-to-deposit ratio (%) 121.7 123.2 129.8 127.0 123.4 92.0 82.0 84.1 85.0 84.7 75.9 90.0 95.0Prices GGXCNL_NGDPCPI (average % YoY) 7.1 8.3 5.1 5.8 6.7 6.6 14.7 7.4 6.0 5.2 6.8 6.0 4.8 GGXONLB_NGDPCPI (end-year % YoY) 7.8 7.4 6.0 4.8 7.4 13.6 8.5 7.1 5.3 5.4 7.5 5.3 4.3 GGXWDG_NGDPFiscal balance Republican budget balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -2.1 -3.0 -2.1 -2.7 -2.2 -1.6 -2.7 -1.3 -1.9 -3.1 -2.5 -1.7 TXG_FOB_USDTotal public debt (% of GDP) 17.5 12.4 12.7 12.6 14.6 22.7 25.0 25.7 26.0 24.9 30.7 28.1 28.2 TMG_CIF_USDExternal balanceMerchandise exports ($bn) 61 85 86 85 79 45 35 47 60 58 47 64 64Merchandise imports ($bn) 33 40 47 49 42 33 26 31 34 40 36 42 45 BCATrade balance ($bn) 29 45 40 36 37 12 9 17 26 18 11 23 19 BCA_NGDPDTrade balance (% of GDP) 19 23 19 15 17 6 7 10 14 10 6 11 9Current account balance ($bn) 1 10 2 2 6 -6 -8 -5 0 -7 -6 0 -5Current account balance (% of GDP) 1 5 1 1 3 -3 -6 -3 0 -4 -3 0 -2Net FDI ($bn) 4 9 12 8 5 3 14 4 5 5 6 6 7Net FDI (% of GDP) 2 4 6 3 2 2 10 2 3 3 4 3 3Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 3 10 7 4 5 -2 4 -1 3 -1 0 3 1Exports (%YoY, value) 40 39 2 -2 -7 -43 -21 33 26 -3 -19 37 -1Imports (%YoY, value) 14 23 16 5 -14 -22 -21 17 12 17 -10 15 8Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) 28 29 28 25 29 28 30 31 31 29 36 36 37Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 10 9 7 6 8 10 14 12 11 9 12 10 10Debt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 118 125 137 150 157 153 163 167 160 159 162 166 168Gross external debt (% of GDP) 79.9 65.1 65.8 63.4 71.0 83.5 118.9 100.3 89.2 87.3 95.6 83.4 77.2Gross external debt (% of exports) 193 147 158 176 199 341 460 354 267 273 346 259 263Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (%YoY) 13.3 15.0 7.9 10.2 10.4 33.8 15.6 -1.7 7.0 2.4 16.9 15.0 10.0Base interest rate (%) year-end 7.50 7.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 16.00 12.00 10.25 9.25 9.25 9.00 9.00 8.00Exchange rate (KZT/EUR) year-end 197 192 199 212 225 371 351 400 439 429 493 504 515Exchange rate (KZT/EUR) annual average 196 205 192 202 238 248 379 369 407 429 472 500 510Exchange rate (KZT/$) year-end 147 148 151 154 182 341 334 333 381 383 418 410 412Exchange rate (KZT/$) annual average 147 147 149 152 179 223 342 326 345 383 414 414 411Credit rating history LatestMoody's WR WR WR WR Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB- BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB na

Source: Bureau of National statistics, NBK, MinFin, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Kenya 36 KEN 664 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 58: Kenya key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2u/B/B+ EODB Rank: 56 (61) - Middle Corruption Rank: 124 (na) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 22 (22) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 8.4 6.1 4.6 5.9 5.4 5.7 5.9 4.9 6.3 5.4 0.5 4.2 4.1 NGDP_RPCHIndustry, value added (%YoY) 8.7 7.2 4.2 5.3 6.1 7.3 5.7 3.6 5.8 4.5 3.0 3.4 NID_NGDPNominal GDP (KESbn) 3,169 3,726 4,255 4,745 5,403 6,284 7,023 8,166 8,892 9,740 10,525 11,767 13,011 LURNominal GDP (€bn) 30.2 30.1 39.2 41.5 46.7 57.3 62.9 70.9 74.7 85.2 87.7 86.0 89.5 NGDPNominal GDP (US$bn) 40.0 42.0 50.4 55.1 61.4 63.9 69.2 79.1 86.7 95.5 100 105 110 NGDPDPopulation (m) 38.5 39.5 40.7 41.8 43.0 43.3 44.3 45.4 46.5 47.6 48.7 49.8 50.9 LPGDP per capita (US$) 1,040 1,062 1,237 1,319 1,428 1,477 1,562 1,743 1,864 2,006 2,053 2,107 2,170 NGDPDPCGross national saving (% of GDP) 14.8 12.5 13.1 11.3 12.0 14.7 12.7 10.0 9.3 8.6 8.0 8.0 8.6Bank credit to private sector (KESbn) 915 1,191 1,360 1,580 2,035 2,402 2,570 2,596 2,699 2,888 3,134 3,369 3,622Bank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 28.9 32.0 32.0 33.3 37.7 38.2 36.6 31.8 30.4 29.7 29.8 28.6 27.8 NGSD_NGDPLoan to deposit ratio 74.0 80.0 77.3 81.0 85.0 83.0 88.0 83.0 77.0 77.0 76.0 75.0 75.0Prices PCPIPCHCPI (average %YoY) 3.8 13.6 9.6 5.7 6.9 6.6 6.2 7.8 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.6 4.8 PCPIEPCHCPI (end-year %YoY) 4.5 18.6 3.2 7.1 6.0 8.0 6.0 4.5 5.7 5.1 5.6 5.6 4.5Fiscal balance (% of GDP)* GGXCNL_NGDPGeneral government budget balance -4.8 -5.8 -5.5 -7.4 -8.1 -8.3 -7.8 -6.8 -7.6 -8.6 -8.4 -8.0 -7.6 GGXONLB_NGDPGeneral government primary balance -2.5 -2.2 -2.9 -4.7 -5.3 -5.2 -5.3 -4.5 -3.7 -3.9 -4.5 -4.4 -3.8 GGXWDG_NGDPTotal public debt 47.5 44.8 43.2 41.5 46.7 51.4 54.5 56.9 60.2 62.1 68.7 71.5 72.9External balance 4 TXG_FOB_USDExports (US$bn) 10 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 TMG_CIF_USDImports (US$bn) 12 15 16 17 18 16 14 16 16 17 14 16 17Trade balance (US$bn) -7 -9 -10 -11 -11 -10 -8 -10 -10 -11 -8 -9 -9Trade balance (% of GDP) -17 -22 -20 -20 -19 -15 -11 -13 -12 -11 -8 -8 -8 BCACurrent account balance (US$bn) -3 -4 -4 -5 -6 -4 -4 -5 -4 -6 -5 -5 -5 BCA_NGDPDCurrent account balance (% of GDP) -6 -11 -8 -9 -10 -7 -6 -6 -5 -6 -5 -5 -5Net FDI (US$bn) 1 1 1 0 1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1Net FDI (% of GDP) 2 2 2 1 1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -5 -9 -7 -8 -9 -8 -6 -7 -6 -7 -5 -6 -6Exports (%YoY, value) 14 12 6 -5 6 -3 -4 1 5 -4 3 15 13Imports (%YoY, value) 27 22 11 3 5 -12 -12 17 3 1 -13 9 8Foreign exchange reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 9Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6Debt indicatorsGross external debt (US$bn) 9 11 16 18 22 27 30 36 42 45 47 48 49Gross external debt (% of GDP) 23 26 32 33 37 42 44 46 48 47 47 46 44Gross external debt (% of exports) 180 191 260 307 593 695 757 630 680 761 782 694 624Total debt service (US$bn) 0 1 2 3 4 3 3 6 7 6 7 5 5Total debt service (% of GDP) 1 2 5 6 6 5 5 8 9 6 7 5 5Total debt service (% of exports) 5 11 39 53 58 55 61 110 123 96 121 76 69

Interest & exchange ratesCentral bank rate (CBR), %YE 6.0 18.0 11.0 8.5 8.5 11.5 10.0 10.0 9.0 8.5 7.0 7.0 7.0Broad money supply (%YoY) 21.7 19.1 14.9 14.7 16.9 14.0 3.9 10.0 10.2 6.0 7.3 9.0 9.03-month interest rate (t-bill YE %) 2.3 18.3 8.3 9.5 8.6 9.8 9.4 8.0 7.3 6.4 7.6 8.0 8.0Exchange rate (KES/EUR) year-end 108 110 113 119 110 113 108 122 116 111 129 140 151Exchange rate (KES/EUR) annual average 105 124 109 114 116 110 112 115 119 114 120 137 145Exchange rate (KES/$) year-end 81 85 86 86 91 102 103 103 102 101 109 115 121Exchange rate (KES/$) annual average 79 89 85 86 88 98 102 103 103 102 105 112 118Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 B2u naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B naFitch B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Korea 37 KOR 542 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 59: Korea key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa2/AA/AA- EODB Rank: 5 (5) - Strong Corruption Rank: 33 (39) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 90 (90) - Strong

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.8 3.7 2.4 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.0 -1.0 3.6 2.8 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 32.6 33.3 31.3 29.9 29.8 29.5 30.1 32.3 31.5 31.3 31.6 32.6 32.2 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.6 4.1 LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 1,323 1,389 1,440 1,501 1,563 1,658 1,741 1,836 1,898 1,919 1,924 2,003 2,075 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 1,144 1,253 1,278 1,371 1,484 1,466 1,499 1,623 1,725 1,647 1,631 1,807 1,886 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 49.6 49.9 50.2 50.4 50.7 51.0 51.2 51.4 51.6 51.7 51.8 51.8 51.8 LPGDP per capita ($) 23,077 25,100 25,459 27,180 29,253 28,737 29,274 31,601 33,433 31,846 31,497 34,866 36,369 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 1,720 1,841 1,883 1,928 2,056 2,191 2,347 2,506 2,679 2,911 3,185 na naLending/GDP (%) 130 133 131 128 132 132 135 136 141 152 165.5 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 35.0 34.6 35.1 35.5 35.4 36.7 36.7 36.9 36.0 35.0 36.3 36.9 36.2 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.9 4.0 2.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.9 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.0 4.2 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.5 1.2 1.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 0.4 -2.8 -2.9 -2.4 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 2.1 -0.1 -3.3 -3.2 -2.6 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 29.5 33.1 35.0 37.7 39.7 40.8 41.2 40.1 40.0 42.2 48.7 53.2 57.2 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 363 466 555 548 560 573 527 496 562 606 543 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 323 425 524 520 516 526 436 406 473 535 503 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 41 31 28 44 47 90 90 89 71 40 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 4 2 2 3 3 6 6 6 4 2 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 28 17 49 77 83 105 98 75 77 60 75 77 75 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 2 1 4 6 6 7 7 5 4 4 5 4 4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) -19 -20 -21 -16 -19 -20 -18 -16 -26 -25 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1 0 2 5 4 6 5 4 3 2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 28 19 -1 2 2 -8 -6 13 8 -10 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 32 23 -1 -1 2 -17 -7 16 13 -6 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 291 304 323 342 359 363 366 384 399 404 437 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8 7 7 8 8 10 11 10 9 10 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 355 399 408 422 423 396 382 412 441 467 511 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 31 32 32 31 28 27 25 25 26 28 31 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 76 72 75 75 74 75 77 73 73 86 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 135 139 127 110 115 104 105 116 126 134 144 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 11 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 29 25 23 20 20 20 21 21 21 25 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 46 46 39 32 32 29 29 30 32 33 33 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 2.5 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 7.2 4.4 4.5 5.3 8.1 7.5 7.5 4.7 6.8 7.9 9.8 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1,534 1,543 1,449 1,455 1,399 1,256 1,285 1,278 1,300 1,305 1,349 1,363 1,367


Moody's A1 A1 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 naStandard & Poor's A A A+ A+ A+ AA- AA AA AA AA AA AA naFitch A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Kuwait 38 KWT 443 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 60: Kuwait key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/AA-/AA EODB Rank: 83 (97) - Middle Corruption Rank: 78 (85) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP, % YoY -2.4 9.6 6.6 1.2 0.5 0.6 2.9 -4.7 1.2 0.4 -8.1 0.7 3.2 NGDP_RPCHNominal GDP, KWDbn 33.1 42.5 48.7 49.4 46.3 34.5 33.1 36.6 42.5 40.9 33.1 38.5 39.4 NID_NGDPNominal GDP, $bn 115 154 174 174 163 115 109 121 141 135 108 127 130 LURPopulation, mn 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 NGDPGDP per capita, $ 32,216 41,657 45,726 44,754 40,278 27,398 25,267 27,194 30,436 28,339 22,105 25,290 25,142 NGDPDGross national saving (% of GDP) 50.8 57.1 58.7 55.9 50.2 37.1 33.2 40.2 45.0 40.6 27.4 35.0 33.9 LPUnemployment rate, % 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 6.8 na na NGDPDPCClaims on private sector,KWDbn 27.5 28.1 29.0 31.1 32.7 35.3 36.2 37.2 38.7 40.4 41.8 na naClaims on private sector, % of GDP 83.2 66.2 59.6 63.0 70.7 102 109 102 91.0 98.7 126 na naDeposits, KWDbn 24.3 26.7 28.5 31.4 32.5 33.0 34.1 35.4 36.9 36.2 37.3 na na NGSD_NGDPLoan-to-deposit ratio 113 105 102 99.1 101 107 106 105 105 111 112 na naPrices PCPIPCHCPI, % YoY annual average 4.5 4.9 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.7 3.5 1.5 0.6 1.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 PCPIEPCHCPI, % YoY year-end 6.0 3.1 4.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.6 1.0 0.4 1.2 3.0 2.5 2.5Fiscal balance GGXCNL_NGDPBudget balance, % of GDP 26.0 33.3 32.4 34.1 22.4 5.6 0.3 6.3 9.0 4.4 -9.4 -6.8 -4.5 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt, % of GDP 6.2 4.6 3.6 3.1 3.4 4.7 10.0 20.5 14.8 11.8 11.5 13.7 27.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal balanceMerchandise exports, $bn 18 70 103 120 116 104 54 46 55 72 65 42 na na TXG_FOB_USDMerchandise imports, $bn 17 20 23 24 26 27 27 27 29 31 29 25 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance, $bn 49 80 95 90 77 28 20 26 41 35 17 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 43 52 55 52 48 24 18 21 29 26 16 na naCurrent account balance, $bn 37 66 79 70 54 4 -5 10 20 22 1 10.9 10.6 BCACurrent account balance, % of GDP 32 43 45 40 33 4 -5 8 14 16 1 8.6 8.2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI, $bn 1 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 na naNet FDI, % of GDP 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 na naCurrent account balance plus FDI, % of GDP 33 45 47 41 34 4 -4 8 14 17 1 na naExports, % YoY 28 48 16 -3 -10 -48 -15 19 31 -10 -35 na naImports, % YoY 9 11 7 5 6 -2 2 9 5 -5 -16 na naInternational reserves, $bn 25 30 33 32 35 31 34 37 40 44 48 na naImport cover, months of imports 15 16 16 15 16 14 15 15 16 18 23 na naDebt indicatorsGross external debt, $bn 35.1 37.4 30.1 34.5 37.3 41.2 42.5 54.2 62.2 68.4 69.6 na naGross external debt, % of GDP 30.4 24.3 17.3 19.8 22.9 35.7 38.9 44.9 43.8 48.8 64.5 na naGross external debt, % of exports 43.7 23.7 14.5 17.1 21.9 65.6 83.7 81.4 60.8 75.3 154 na naInterest & exchange ratesBroad money supply, % YoY 2.98 8.17 7.76 10.05 3.25 1.72 3.50 3.81 3.93 -1.24 3.77 na naDiscount rate, % year-end 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 2.75 1.50 na naExchange rate, KWD/EUR year-end 0.38 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.35 0.33 0.32 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.37 0.37 0.37Exchange rate, KWD/EUR annual average 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37Exchange rate, KWD/$ year-end 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30Exchange rate, KWD/$ annual average 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.30Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA- AA- naFitch AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA na

Source: Central Statistical Bureau, CBK, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Lithuania 39 LTU 946 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 61: Lithuania key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A2/A+/A EODB Rank: 11 (14) - Strong Corruption Rank: 35 (35) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 1.7 6.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 2.0 2.5 4.3 3.9 4.3 -0.8 3.2 3.2 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 18.1 22.0 19.8 19.5 19.6 21.3 19.2 19.2 20.3 17.5 12.8 14.0 15.1 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 17.8 15.4 13.4 11.8 10.7 9.1 7.9 7.1 6.1 6.3 8.9 8.4 7.6 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 28.0 31.3 33.4 35.0 36.6 37.3 38.9 42.3 45.5 48.8 48.8 51.0 53.5 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 37.2 43.6 43.0 46.5 48.6 41.4 43.0 47.7 53.7 54.6 55.7 62.2 66.1 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 LPGDP per capita ($) 12,009 14,393 14,376 15,734 16,577 14,265 15,004 16,879 19,185 19,553 19,917 22,245 23,636 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 16.4 15.5 15.5 15.1 14.9 15.5 16.6 17.3 18.4 19.0 18.5 na naLending/GDP (%) 58.6 49.5 46.5 43.0 40.8 41.6 42.7 41.0 40.4 38.9 38.0 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 16.9 17.4 18.4 20.4 22.8 18.5 18.4 19.8 20.6 20.8 20.7 20.2 19.9 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.2 4.1 3.2 1.2 0.2 -0.7 0.7 3.7 2.5 2.2 1.1 1.5 1.9 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.6 3.5 2.9 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 2.0 3.8 1.8 2.7 -0.1 1.5 1.9 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -6.9 -8.9 -3.1 -2.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 -8.0 -6.1 -1.8 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -5.8 -7.2 -1.2 -0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 -7.8 -5.8 -1.6 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 36.2 37.1 39.7 38.7 40.5 42.7 39.9 39.3 33.7 35.9 47.0 49.5 47.7 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 16 21 28 30 33 32 25 25 30 33 33 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 18 23 32 32 35 34 28 27 32 37 36 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -3 -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -7 -9 -5 -5 -4 -7 -5 -5 -6 -5 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0 -2 -1 0 2 -1 0 0 0 2 4 4 3 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -1 -5 -1 1 3 -3 -1 1 0 3 8 6 5 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3 2 1 1 0 2 1 2 1 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1 -2 -1 2 3 -1 0 3 1 5 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 26 35 6 10 -1 -21 -2 20 11 -1 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 27 36 1 9 -1 -18 -3 18 13 -2 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na 4.5 na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 32 33 34 34 31 31 35 43 41 37 43 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 87 75 80 73 65 75 82 89 76 68 76 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 156 116 116 105 97 123 141 142 122 112 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 15 14 13 13 10 11 16 19 19 12 13 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 41 33 30 28 21 27 38 39 35 22 24 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 73 51 44 39 31 44 65 63 57 37 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na 296 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 9.4 4.8 7.2 4.9 1.5 -61.5 7.3 5.9 11.4 10.4 25.8 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.22 1.23


Moody's Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A2 naStandard & Poor's BBB BBB BBB BBB A- A- A- A- A A A+ A+ naFitch BBB BBB BBB BBB+ A- A- A- A- A- A- A A naNote: 2021-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Malaysia 40 MYS 548 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 62: Malaysia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/A-/BBB+ EODB Rank: 12 (15) - Strong Corruption Rank: 57 (51) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 58 (49) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.5 5.3 5.5 4.7 6.0 5.0 4.5 5.8 4.8 4.3 -5.6 6.5 6.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 23.7 23.5 26.0 26.1 25.2 25.4 26.0 25.5 23.9 21.0 19.7 22.5 20.7 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 4.5 3.8 3.6 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 833 925 985 1,033 1,122 1,177 1,250 1,372 1,447 1,511 1,415 1,564 1,678 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 259 302 319 328 343 301 301 319 359 365 338 387 417 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 28.6 29.1 29.5 30.2 30.7 31.2 31.6 32.0 32.4 32.5 32.9 33.4 33.8 LPGDP per capita ($) 9,047 10,398 10,807 10,852 11,165 9,663 9,523 9,965 11,077 11,213 10,270 11,604 12,350 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 880 989 1,108 1,221 1,334 1,449 1,524 1,608 1,742 1,826 na na naLending/GDP (%) 106 107 113 118 119 123 122 117 120 121 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 33.6 34.2 31.0 29.5 29.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 26.1 24.4 24.1 26.3 24.5 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.7 3.2 1.7 2.1 3.1 2.1 2.1 3.8 1.0 0.7 -1.1 2.0 2.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 2.1 3.0 1.2 3.2 2.7 2.7 1.7 3.5 0.2 1.0 -1.4 2.0 2.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.3 -3.6 -3.1 -3.5 -2.6 -2.5 -2.6 -2.4 -2.6 -2.2 -5.1 -4.4 -3.4 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -2.9 -2.0 -2.1 -2.1 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.2 -3.3 -2.9 -1.4 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 51.2 51.9 53.8 55.7 55.4 57.0 55.8 54.4 55.7 57.2 67.5 67.0 67.4 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 157 199 228 228 228 234 200 189 218 247 238 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 124 165 188 197 206 209 176 168 195 218 205 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 34 41 31 22 25 24 21 23 29 33 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 13 13 10 7 7 8 7 7 8 9 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 26 32 16 11 15 9 7 9 8 12 15 15 16 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 10 11 5 3 4 3 2 3 2 3 4 4 4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) -4 -3 -8 -2 -5 0 3 4 3 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 1 1 1 0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 8 10 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 26 15 0 0 3 -15 -5 15 14 -4 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 33 14 5 5 1 -16 -4 16 12 -6 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 105 132 138 133 115 94.0 93.1 100.9 99.9 102 105.3 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.6 8.4 8.4 7.8 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.2 5.5 6.0 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 124 138 197 212 214 195 204 218 223 231 229 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 48 46 62 65 62 65 68 68 62 63 68 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 62 60 86 93 91 98 108 100 90 97 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 41 50 67 80 79 76 82 86 97 95 88 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 16 17 21 24 23 25 27 27 27 26 26 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 20 22 29 35 34 38 44 39 39 40 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 39 38 48 60 69 81 89 85 97 93 84 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.0 1.8 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 6.8 14.3 9.0 7.3 7.3 3.0 3.2 4.9 9.1 3.5 4.0 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 4.27 4.26 3.97 4.19 4.35 4.34 4.59 4.86 4.77 4.64 4.78 4.97 4.99Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.22 3.06 3.09 3.15 3.27 3.91 4.15 4.30 4.04 4.14 4.18 4.04 4.02Credit rating history Latest

Moody's A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 naStandard & Poor's A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- naFitch A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- BBB+ BBB+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Mauritius 41 MUS 684 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 63: Mauritius key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/-/- EODB Rank: 13 (20) - Strong Corruption Rank: 52 (56) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 66 (66) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.4 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.0 -15.8 6.6 5.2 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 27.1 23.9 24.4 22.0 19.7 18.1 17.9 18.3 19.4 19.8 18.5 19.1 19.3 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.9 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 10.9 10.9 9.2 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 308 331 351 372 392 410 435 457 481 498 436 479 520 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 10.0 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.8 11.7 12.2 13.3 14.2 14.0 11.4 12.2 13.4 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 LPGDP per capita ($) 8,000 9,197 9,291 9,637 10,152 9,259 9,681 10,485 11,206 11,090 8,993 9,639 10,571 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 263 295 347 396 387 421 419 468 377 400 412 na naLending/GDP (%) 85.4 89.3 98.8 106.3 98.8 102.7 96.3 102.4 78.3 80.2 94.6 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 14.7 13.2 18.1 19.0 16.8 16.8 17.3 18.8 18.7 19.3 12.6 15.4 16.6 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.9 6.5 3.9 3.5 3.2 1.3 1.0 3.7 3.2 0.5 2.5 2.6 3.9 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.2 4.8 3.2 4.1 0.2 1.3 2.3 4.3 1.8 0.9 2.7 4.0 3.8 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.0 -3.0 -1.8 -3.4 -3.1 -3.6 -2.8 -1.7 -2.2 -8.3 -10.4 -6.8 -5.0 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 0.1 -0.3 0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -1.3 -0.5 0.7 0.3 -5.4 -7.7 -4.1 -2.4 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 55.1 55.7 55.1 57.5 60.6 65.0 65.0 64.3 66.2 82.8 87.8 87.7 87.8 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -23 -26 -26 -24 -22 -20 -20 -24 -26 -26 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -10 -13 -7 -6 -5 -4 -4 -5 -4 -5 -11 -15 -7 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3 2 4 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -7 -11 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 14 11 3 2 13 -7 -9 -5 -4 -6 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 17 21 3 -2 4 -13 -1 13 8 -1 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.5 5.8 6.8 6.5 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6.9 6.1 6.4 7.7 8.0 10.1 11.6 12.5 12.3 14.4 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 177 232 236 186 148 181 196 230 234 239 215 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 1,768 2,016 2,025 1,537 1,153 1,548 1,604 1,733 1,653 1,700 1,889 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 9,045 10,690 10,572 8,197 5,732 7,533 8,945 11,020 11,711 12,649 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 15 15 25 24 42 41 38 40 34 41 50 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 76 79 131 128 208 198 211 251 243 303 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 61 67 103 87 148 120 103 96 83 85 87 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.8 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.4 1.9 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 4.4 6.4 8.2 5.8 8.7 10.2 9.1 9.3 2.9 na na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 40.8 40.0 38.6 40.8 40.7 38.9 39.3 39.0 40.1 39.7 43.7 48.3 48.3Exchange rate ($) annual average 30.8 28.7 30.0 30.7 30.6 35.1 35.5 34.5 33.9 35.5 38.2 39.2 38.9Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa2 Baa2 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Mexico 42 MEX 273 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 64: Mexico key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa1/BBB/BBB- EODB Rank: 60 (54) - Middle Corruption Rank: 124 (130) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 20 (23) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.1 3.7 3.6 1.4 2.9 3.3 2.6 2.1 2.2 -0.1 -8.2 5.0 3.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 22.8 23.3 23.9 22.5 21.9 23.3 23.6 22.9 22.7 21.1 19.3 20.9 21.8 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.3 3.5 4.4 3.6 3.3 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 13,366 14,666 15,818 16,277 17,484 18,572 20,129 21,934 23,523 24,443 23,122 24,777 26,176 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 1,058 1,180 1,201 1,274 1,315 1,172 1,078 1,159 1,222 1,269 1,076 1,192 1,251 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 114 115 117 118 120 121 123 124 125 127 128 129 130 LPGDP per capita ($) 9,299 10,232 10,271 10,759 10,967 9,657 8,789 9,343 9,753 10,024 8,421 9,246 9,615 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 2,450 2,847 3,150 3,613 3,833 4,432 5,215 5,896 6,304 6,976 6,709 na naLending/GDP (%) 18.3 19.4 19.9 22.2 21.9 23.9 25.9 26.9 26.8 28.5 29.0 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.3 22.3 22.3 20.0 19.9 20.7 21.4 21.1 20.7 20.8 21.8 22.7 22.9 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.2 3.4 4.1 3.8 4.0 2.7 2.8 6.0 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.1 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.4 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.1 2.1 3.4 6.8 4.8 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.1 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.0 -3.3 -3.7 -3.7 -4.5 -4.0 -2.8 -1.1 -2.2 -2.3 -4.6 -3.4 -2.6 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -1.2 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.7 -1.2 0.4 2.6 1.6 1.4 -0.6 0.2 0.7 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 42.0 42.9 42.7 45.9 48.9 52.8 56.7 54.0 53.6 53.3 60.6 60.5 60.5 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 230 298 349 371 380 397 381 374 409 451 461 416 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 248 320 372 393 404 424 419 410 446 492 483 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -21 -22 -22 -24 -27 -38 -36 -36 -41 -22 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -5 -12 -19 -32 -25 -31 -24 -20 -25 -4 27 22 13 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 2 2 1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 13 12 -1 33 24 25 31 30 27 23 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 0 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 1 0 -2 0 0 -1 1 1 0 1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 30 17 6 2 4 -4 -2 9 10 2 -10 na naImports (% YoY, value) 29 16 6 3 5 -1 -2 9 10 -2 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 120 144 160 175 191 173 174 170 171 177 192 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 248 285 348 399 428 417 413 437 447 464 451 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 23 24 29 31 33 36 38 38 37 37 42 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 83 81 94 105 108 110 111 107 99 101 108 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 43 53 76 93 92 70 53 52 61 62 49 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 4 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 14 15 20 24 23 18 14 13 14 14 12 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 36 37 47 53 48 41 31 31 36 35 26 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 33 42 71 42 49 52 78 65 58 63 40 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3 4 6 3 4 4 7 6 5 5 4 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 11 12 19 11 12 14 21 16 13 14 10 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 27 29 44 24 26 30 45 38 34 35 21 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.0 3.3 5.8 7.3 8.3 7.3 4.3 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.6 19.2 16.7 10.7 11.4 5.1 6.8 8.3 4.7 7.6 9.2 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 16.8 17.3 16.9 17.0 17.7 17.6 20.7 21.4 22.7 21.6 24.6 25.6 26.0Exchange rate ($) annual average 12.6 12.4 13.2 12.8 13.3 15.8 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.3 21.5 20.8 20.9Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 Baa1 Baa1 naStandard & Poor's BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB naFitch BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB- BBB- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Moldova 43 MDA 921 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 65: Moldova key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/-/NR EODB Rank: 48 (47) - Strong Corruption Rank: 115 (120) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 33 (30) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) - RenCap forecasts 7.1 5.8 -0.6 9.0 5.0 -0.3 4.4 4.7 4.3 3.7 -7.0 5.6 4.2 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 23.6 24.0 24.2 24.9 26.2 23.6 22.0 22.8 25.3 26.3 26.8 26.2 26.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 7.4 6.7 5.6 5.1 3.9 5.0 4.2 4.1 3.1 5.1 8.0 5.5 3.0 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 86 99 105 120 133 146 161 179 193 210 206 223 242 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 7.0 8.4 8.7 9.5 9.5 7.7 8.1 9.7 11.5 12.0 11.9 12.7 13.6 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 LPGDP per capita ($) 2,427 2,932 3,035 3,328 3,340 2,741 2,908 3,552 4,266 4,535 4,608 5,016 5,448 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 24 28 34 42 41 38 35 33 35 40 46 52 60Lending/GDP (%) 27.9 28.1 31.9 35.3 30.6 26.2 21.6 18.7 18.4 19.2 22.1 23.5 24.9Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 16.7 13.9 16.8 19.8 20.2 17.6 18.5 17.0 14.8 16.9 20.3 19.2 18.4 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 7.4 7.6 4.6 4.6 5.1 9.7 6.4 6.6 3.0 4.8 3.8 2.5 4.3 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.1 7.8 4.1 5.2 4.7 13.6 2.4 7.3 0.9 7.5 0.4 3.5 5.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.2 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6 -1.6 -1.9 -1.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.4 -5.3 -5.5 -3.8 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -1.9 -1.4 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4 -2.1 -2.2 -1.2 -1.5 -5.4 -4.7 -3.0 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 25.5 24.2 25.9 24.9 27.3 29.6 36.9 32.7 30.5 27.4 35.2 39.2 41.0 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 3 3 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3Trade balance (% of GDP) -33 -35 -35 -33 -32 -27 -26 -26 -29 -28 -26 -24 -25Current account balance ($bn) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -7 -10 -7 -5 -6 -6 -3 -6 -10 -9 -7 -8 -8 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net FDI (% of GDP) 4 4 3 2 3 3 1 1 2 5 1 2 3C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3 -6 -5 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -9 -6 -6 -5 -5Exports (% YoY, value) 25 50 -3 12 -4 -17 3 20 6 7 -7 11 7Imports (% YoY, value) 17 35 1 6 -4 -25 0 22 19 3 -7 5 9FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.8 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.9Import cover (months of imports) 5.9 5.0 6.3 6.7 5.3 5.8 7.3 7.6 6.8 6.8 9.0 8.4 8.1External Debt ST external debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10Gross external debt YE (% of GDP) 68 62 67 70 67 77 75 70 64 62 70 70 70Gross external debt YE (% of exports) 405 298 347 355 348 394 389 366 371 350 426 409 408Short-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 21 19 14 19 15 15 16 17 17 16 17 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 123 93 74 93 78 76 82 87 100 92 106 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 83 82 50 63 66 65 58 58 66 64 55 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 11 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 34 27 33 35 32 28 27 23 29 29 70 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 23 24 22 24 27 24 19 15 19 20 36 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 7.00 8.50 4.50 3.50 6.50 19.50 9.00 6.50 6.50 5.50 2.65 3.50 5.50Broad money growth (%YoY) 18.3 14.1 23.5 29.2 -4.2 -9.2 18.3 14.3 10.0 8.2 20.2 8.0 9.0Exchange rate (€) annual average 16.3 15.2 16.0 17.9 19.0 21.4 21.0 20.5 19.7 19.3 19.8 21.4 22.1Exchange rate ($) annual average 12.4 11.7 12.1 12.5 14.0 18.8 19.9 18.4 16.8 17.6 17.3 17.5 17.8Credit rating history Latest

Moody's B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - na

Source: National Bureaus of Statistics, NBM, MinFin, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Morocco 44 MAR 686 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 66: Morocco key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba1/BB+/BB+ EODB Rank: 53 (60) - Middle Corruption Rank: 86 (80) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 34 (35) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.8 5.2 3.0 4.5 2.7 4.5 1.1 4.2 3.1 2.5 -7.1 4.5 3.9 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 34.1 35.8 35.0 34.7 32.5 30.8 32.4 32.6 33.4 32.2 29.1 29.7 30.1 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 9.1 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.9 9.7 9.9 10.2 9.5 9.2 11.9 10.5 9.7 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 785 820 848 898 925 988 1,013 1,063 1,108 1,151 1,080 1,134 1,191 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 93.2 101 98.3 107 110 101 103 110 118 120 114 124 131 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.8 34.1 34.5 34.9 35.2 35.6 36.0 36.3 36.7 LPGDP per capita ($) 2,897 3,112 2,980 3,200 3,260 2,965 2,996 3,147 3,353 3,364 3,158 3,415 3,581 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 621 687 719 747 763 785 818 843 871 917 957.4 1,005.3 1,055.5Lending/GDP (%) 79.2 83.8 84.8 83.2 82.5 79.5 80.7 79.3 78.5 79.7 88.7 88.7 88.6Gross domestic saving (% of GDP) 29.7 28.2 25.7 27.1 26.6 28.7 28.3 29.2 28.1 28.1 26.9 25.9 26.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.7 1.6 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 1.8 0.5 2.1 0.2 1.5 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.1 1.0 -0.9 0.8 1.2 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.3 -6.6 -7.2 -5.1 -4.8 -4.6 -4.5 -3.5 -3.7 -4.1 -7.6 -6.4 -5.9 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -2.0 -4.4 -4.7 -2.5 -2.1 -1.9 -1.8 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -5.1 -3.8 -3.3 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 49.0 52.5 56.5 61.7 63.3 63.7 64.9 65.1 65.2 65.2 76.1 77.1 77.4 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 13 17 21 17 18 20 19 19 22 25 25 20 23 26 TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 32 35 44 39 40 41 33 37 40 45 45 37 42 45 TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -19 -23 -22 -22 -21 -14 -18 -18 -20 -20 -17 -19 -20Trade balance (% of GDP) -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -14 -17 -16 -17 -17 -15 -15 -15Current account balance ($bn) -4 -8 -9 -8 -7 -2 -4 -4 -6 -5 -3 -5 -5 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -4 -8 -9 -8 -6 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 2Net FDI (% of GDP) 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1C/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4 -6 -7 -5 -3 1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -1 -3 -3Exports (% YoY, value) 23 25 -18 8 9 -8 3 13 14 0 -19 15 10Imports (% YoY, value) 8 24 -11 3 1 -20 13 8 14 0 -18 14 7FX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 23 21 18 19 20 24 25 26 24 26 32 32 33Import cover (months of imports) 8 6 5 6 6 9 8 8 7 7 10 9 9External Debt ST external debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) na 26 29 29 33 32 33 32 32 33 42 42 42Gross external debt YE (% of GDP) na 26 29 27 30 32 32 29 27 27 37 34 32Gross external debt YE (% of exports) na 126 168 160 164 172 171 148 130 133 211 180 163Short-term external debt YE ($bn) 3 4 4 5 8 7 9 7 7 9 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 4 4 5 7 7 9 7 6 7 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 17 18 25 29 38 37 47 34 30 35 40 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 12 19 24 28 37 29 36 28 31 33 25 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 7 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 4 3 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 6 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 20 16 21 28 24 19 20 19 16 17 33 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 15 16 21 26 23 15 15 15 16 16 21 na naCurrency and monetary policyKey policy rate (% YE) 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.5Broad money growth (%YoY) 4.2 6.4 4.5 3.1 6.2 5.7 4.7 5.5 4.1 3.7 8.4 5.0 5.0Exchange rate (€) annual average 11.2 11.3 11.1 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.8 10.8 11.3 11.1Exchange rate ($) annual average 8.42 8.09 8.63 8.41 8.41 9.76 9.81 9.69 9.39 9.62 9.51 9.14 9.07Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Mozambique 45 MOZ 688 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 67: Mozambique key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa2u/CCC+/CCC EODB Rank: 138 (135) - Weak Corruption Rank: 149 (146) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 15 (17) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.5 7.4 7.3 7.0 7.4 6.7 3.8 3.7 3.4 2.3 -0.5 2.1 4.7 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 21.8 28.8 49.5 54.0 52.9 41.2 46.6 33.2 50.0 42.3 66.6 73.0 88.8 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 377 418 464 511 555 638 753 841 896 957 988 1,066 1,177 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 11.4 14.4 16.3 17.0 17.6 16.0 11.9 13.2 14.7 15.2 14.4 14.0 14.9 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.5 27.2 28.0 28.8 29.5 30.3 31.2 32.0 32.8 33.7 LPGDP per capita ($) 469 575 632 641 647 570 415 445 485 488 450 425 442 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 84 89 106 136 170 208 238 206 200 207 242 na naLending/GDP (%) 22.3 21.3 22.9 26.6 30.6 32.6 31.6 24.5 22.4 21.7 24.5 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 7.1 5.7 7.8 13.5 16.3 3.8 14.4 13.5 20.5 21.9 5.9 4.1 5.5 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 12.4 11.2 2.6 4.3 2.6 3.6 19.9 15.1 3.9 2.8 3.1 5.3 5.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 17.4 6.1 2.0 3.5 1.9 10.6 23.7 5.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 5.5 5.5 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.5 -4.4 -3.6 -2.6 -10.3 -6.7 -5.5 -2.9 -6.8 -0.2 -5.4 -4.1 -1.9 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -2.8 -3.6 -2.7 -1.8 -9.2 -5.5 -3.0 0.0 -2.4 3.1 -2.3 -1.2 1.0 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 39.7 34.7 37.4 50.1 64.3 87.4 120 100 105 103 122 125 126 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 2 2 4 3 4 4 3 3 5 5 5 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 4 4 6 6 11 10 7 5 6 7 9 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -1 -3 -3 -7 -6 -4 -2 -1 -2 -4 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -12 -19 -17 -40 -32 -27 -17 -8 -11 -26 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2 -3 -7 -7 -6 -6 -4 -3 -4 -3 -9 -10 -12 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -15 -23 -42 -41 -37 -37 -32 -20 -30 -20 -61 -69 -83 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 2 3 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 20 24 35 33 27 24 26 17 18 15 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 5 1 -7 -7 -9 -13 -7 -2 -11 -6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 3 63 -4 17 -4 -20 6 41 11 -4 na na naImports (% YoY, value) -5 77 -2 73 -11 -22 -29 7 19 31 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 na na naImport cover (months of imports) 7 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 5 5 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 5 6 6 10 11 13 14 16 15 19 19 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 42 40 38 62 60 81 118 125 104 127 133 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 220 158 180 259 272 413 422 350 292 386 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 5 3 3 4 5 12 6 8 9 11 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 23 11 15 18 21 60 20 23 24 32 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 24 17 18 23 27 78 34 34 41 44 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 6 5 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 6 28 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 30 19 14 13 20 20 16 11 12 19 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 31 27 17 17 25 27 27 16 21 26 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na#N/A N/A 9.5 8.3 7.5 8.3 23.3 20.5 17.3 15.8 13.3 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 24.6 7.8 29.4 16.3 22.2 26.1 10.1 5.1 8.2 12.1 23.6 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 43.7 40.5 36.7 40.0 41.9 44.4 69.8 72.2 71.9 70.5 78.5 93.9 98.2Exchange rate ($) annual average 33.0 29.1 28.5 30.1 31.5 40.0 63.1 63.9 60.9 63.0 68.7 76.3 79.1Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - B1 B1 B2 Caa1 Caa1 Caa3 Caa2u Caa2u Caa2u naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B B- CC SD SD CCC+ CCC+ CCC+ naFitch B B B B+ B+ B RD RD RD CCC CCC CCC naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Namibia 46 NAM 728 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 68: Namibia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/-/BB EODB Rank: 104 (107) - Middle Corruption Rank: 57 (56) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 69 (68) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.0 5.1 5.1 5.6 6.1 4.3 0.0 -1.0 1.1 -1.6 -7.2 2.6 3.3 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 22.9 18.9 25.6 25.6 36.0 28.9 22.0 17.7 14.9 14.7 17.1 18.2 19.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 82.6 90.1 107 117 135 146 158 172 181 181 174 186 201 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 11.3 12.4 13.0 12.2 12.4 11.5 10.7 12.9 13.7 12.5 10.6 11.4 12.0 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 LPGDP per capita ($) 5,411 5,871 6,039 5,541 5,556 5,020 4,612 5,439 5,664 5,100 4,175 4,371 4,488 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 40.6 44.4 52.0 59.5 69.3 78.9 85.6 89.9 96.4 103 105.7 na naLending/GDP (%) 49.1 49.3 48.6 50.7 51.4 54.0 54.3 52.4 53.2 56.9 60.8 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 20.7 15.7 20.0 21.3 25.3 17.1 5.9 13.5 11.6 13.0 16.4 14.8 16.5 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.9 5.0 6.7 5.6 5.3 3.4 6.7 6.1 4.3 3.7 2.6 3.4 4.4 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.1 7.4 6.4 4.9 4.6 3.7 7.3 5.2 5.2 2.6 3.2 3.4 4.5 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.9 -6.8 -3.0 -4.5 -6.3 -8.1 -9.1 -4.9 -5.1 -5.5 -9.1 -8.5 -7.6 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -3.8 -5.7 -1.6 -3.1 -4.9 -6.5 -6.7 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 -5.0 -4.7 -3.8 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 16.0 26.2 24.0 25.2 27.0 41.3 44.8 43.2 50.4 59.9 65.7 71.4 74.1 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 7 7 5 8 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 0 -3 -12 -9 -19 -24 -16 -12 2 -14 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -3 -3 -6 -4 -11 -13 -16 -4 -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2 6 8 6 3 7 3 3 0 0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 3 2 2 -8 -6 -13 -1 -3 -2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) -3 1 -8 18 -5 -21 2 3 -5 28 na na naImports (% YoY, value) -4 8 10 6 13 -10 -13 0 -30 72 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.2 na naImport cover (months of imports) 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.4 1.7 2.6 3.3 4.3 5.5 3.0 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 2 3 3 2 2 4 7 8 8 8 8 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 15 22 23 18 19 33 62 64 61 67 74 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 28 45 53 34 38 78 131 160 169 134 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 3 3 1 2 2 5 6 6 7 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 5 5 6 2 4 5 10 14 17 14 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 19 18 20 9 20 15 28 31 40 42 35 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na#N/A N/A 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.5 3.8 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 7.9 11.7 4.1 12.8 7.8 10.2 4.9 9.5 10.8 10.5 9.0 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 9.71 10.1 10.6 12.8 14.4 14.2 16.3 15.0 15.6 16.2 18.8 20.1 20.8Exchange rate ($) annual average 7.32 7.25 8.21 9.65 10.8 12.8 14.7 13.3 13.2 14.5 16.5 16.3 16.7Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB BB BB naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Nigeria 47 NGA 694 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 69: Nigeria key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B-/B EODB Rank: 131 (146) - Weak Corruption Rank: 149 (146) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 18 (18) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 4.9 4.3 5.4 6.3 2.7 -1.6 0.8 1.9 2.3 -1.9 2.0 2.5 NGDP_RPCHPrivate consumption (%YoY) 2.6 0.3 29.3 NID_NGDPGovernment consumption (%YoY) 4.6 -2.0 1.4 LURInvestment (%YoY) -29.8 1.9 10.5 NGDPOil production, incl condensates (mbd avg) 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 NGDPDNominal GDP (NGNbn) 55,469 63,713 72,600 81,010 90,137 95,178 102,575 114,899 129,087 145,127 154,252 195,339 223,599 LPNominal GDP (€bn) 277 293 359 382 415 431 362 309 308 359 355 387 400 NGDPDPCNominal GDP (US$bn) 367 408 462 508 546 481 399 345 357 402 405 473 488Population (m) 156 160 165 169 174 179 184 191 196 201 206 211 217GDP per capita (US$) 2,354 2,547 2,803 3,001 3,136 2,693 2,171 1,807 1,824 2,002 1,963 2,235 2,253 NGSD_NGDPGross national saving (% of GDP) 21.2 19.2 19.3 18.8 16.0 12.3 16.0 18.2 20.7 21.6 21.5 21.2 21.9Bank credit to private sector (NGNbn) 9,704 14,184 15,152 16,191 18,115 18,719 21,982 22,290 22,959 25,254 27,149 29,863 32,850 PCPIPCHBank credit to private sector (% of GDP) 17.5 22.3 20.9 20.0 20.1 19.7 21.4 19.4 17.8 17.4 17.6 15.3 14.7 PCPIEPCHLoan to deposit ratio 56.0 47.0 45.0 47.0 54.0 58.0 65.0 62.0 51.0 51.0 52.0 53.0 53.0Prices GGXCNL_NGDPCPI (average %YoY) 13.7 10.8 12.2 8.5 8.4 8.2 15.6 16.6 12.2 11.4 13.2 14.7 13.5 GGXONLB_NGDPCPI (end-year %YoY) 11.8 10.9 12.0 8.0 8.1 9.6 18.6 15.4 11.4 12.0 15.8 13.5 12.5 GGXWDG_NGDPFiscal balance (% of GDP)Federal government balance 55 -2.5 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 -0.9 -2.5 -2.8 -4.1 -4.2 -4.8 -5.8 -4.0 -3.9 TXG_FOB_USDTotal public debt 32 9.6 17.6 17.7 18.6 17.5 20.3 23.4 25.3 27.3 29.8 35.0 31.9 32.5 TMG_CIF_USDExternal balanceExports (US$bn) 79 97 94 95 83 46 35 46 63 65 37 48 53Imports (US$bn) 47 62 53 51 62 52 35 33 41 62 50 53 56 BCATrade balance (US$bn) 32 35 41 44 21 -6 -1 13 22 3 -13 -4 -3 BCA_NGDPDTrade balance (% of GDP) 9 14 9 9 4 -1 0 4 6 1 -3 -1 -1Current account balance (US$bn) 15 13 19 20 1 -15 3 10 5 -17 -16 -10 -9Current account balance (% of GDP) 4 3 4 4 0 -3 1 3 1 -4 -4 -2 -2Net FDI (US$bn) 5 8 8 4 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 2Net FDI (% of GDP) 1 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 5 5 6 5 1 -3 1 4 2 -4 -4 -2 -1Exports (%YoY, value) 38 24 -3 1 -13 -44 -24 32 38 3 -43 31 11Imports (%YoY, value) 50 33 -14 -4 20 -15 -33 -7 25 52 -19 5 7Foreign exchange reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 32 32 44 44 34 29 26 39 45 38 35 36 37Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 8 6 10 10 7 7 9 14 13 7 8 8 8Debt indicatorsGross external debt (US$bn) 5 6 7 11 11 47 78 97 116 126 130 142 155Gross external debt (% of GDP) 1 1 2 2 2 10 20 28 32 31 32 30 32Gross external debt (% of exports) 6 6 8 12 14 103 226 211 184 195 353 294 290Total debt service (US$bn) 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 9 10 14 18 17 18Total debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 3 4 4 4Total debt service (% of exports) 0 0 0 0 1 5 13 19 17 21 48 35 34Interest & exchange ratesMonetary policy rate (MPR), %YE 6.3 12.0 12.0 12.0 13.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.5 11.5 12.5 14.0Broad money supply (%YoY) 7.1 15.8 12.0 14.7 16.0 18.2 16.0 9.1 15.2 6.2 6.2 10.6 16.0Exchange rate (NGN/EUR) year-end 203 206 206 221 222 219 332 425 413 399 469 523 609Exchange rate (NGN/EUR) annual average 200 217 202 212 217 221 283 372 419 404 434 504 566Exchange rate, NGN/$) year-end 152 159 156 160 183 199 315 360 363 363 398 429 487

Exchange rate (NGN/$) annual average 151 156 157 159 165 198 257 333 361 361 381 413 458Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B1 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ BB- BB- BB- B+ B B B B B- B- naFitch BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ B+ B B naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Oman 48 OMN 449 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 70: Oman key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/B+/BB- EODB Rank: 68 (78) - Middle Corruption Rank: 49 (56) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP, % YoY 2.0 2.6 9.1 5.1 1.4 4.7 4.9 0.3 0.9 -0.8 -6.4 1.8 7.4 NGDP_RPCHNominal GDP, OMRbn 21.9 26.2 29.5 30.3 31.2 26.5 25.2 27.1 30.7 29.3 24.3 28.5 30.5 NID_NGDPNominal GDP, $bn 57.0 68.0 76.6 78.8 81.1 68.9 65.5 70.6 79.8 76.3 63.2 74.1 79.3 LURPopulation, mn 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.7 NGDPGDP per capita, $ 19,028 20,641 21,150 20,436 20,308 16,571 14,835 15,482 17,339 16,529 14,216 16,212 16,858 NGDPDGross national saving (% of GDP) 34.7 37.5 34.6 33.2 25.9 14.3 9.7 12.0 19.0 14.8 9.0 14.1 18.5 LPUnemployment rate, % 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 2.5 1.8 1.8 5.0 na na NGDPDPCCredit to private sector, OMRbn 9.8 11.0 12.6 13.4 14.9 16.4 17.8 18.5 19.0 19.2 18.9 na naCredit to private sector, % of GDP 44.5 42.1 42.7 44.3 47.8 61.9 70.7 68.1 62.1 65.4 77.9 na naDeposits, OMRbn 7.4 8.2 9.2 10.1 11.4 12.1 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.4 15.1 na na NGSD_NGDPLoan-to-deposit ratio 133 134 136 132 130 135 143 145 148 143 126 na naPrices PCPIPCHCPI, % YoY annual average 3.3 4.0 2.9 1.2 1.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.1 -0.9 3.8 2.4 PCPIEPCHCPI, % YoY year-end 4.2 3.3 2.9 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.1 -0.9 3.8 2.4Fiscal balance GGXCNL_NGDPBudget balance, % of GDP 5.6 9.4 4.6 4.7 -1.1 -15.9 -21.0 -12.6 -8.3 -6.7 -17.3 -4.4 -1.5 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt, % of GDP 7.1 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 15.5 30.3 44.8 51.4 60.0 81.1 71.3 66.8 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal balanceMerchandise exports, $bn 28 37 47 52 56 53 36 28 33 42 39 31 na na TXG_FOB_USDMerchandise imports, $bn 18 18 21 26 32 28 27 21 24 24 20 18 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance, $bn 19 26 26 24 26 9 6 9 18 18 13 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 33 38 35 31 32 13 10 12 23 24 20 na naCurrent account balance, $bn 5 9 8 5 4 -11 -13 -11 -4 -4 -6 -5 -2 BCACurrent account balance, % of GDP 9 13 10 7 5 -16 -19 -16 -5 -5 -10 -6 -3 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI, $bn 1 2 1 2 1 -2 2 3 6 3 3 na naNet FDI, % of GDP 2 2 2 2 2 -3 3 4 7 4 4 na naCurrent account balance plus FDI, % of GDP 11 15 12 9 7 -19 -16 -11 2 -1 -6 na naExports, % YoY 32 29 11 8 -5 -33 -23 19 27 -7 -19 na naImports, % YoY 11 20 19 25 -13 -5 -20 13 -2 -13 -10 na naInternational reserves, $bn 13 14 14 16 16 18 20 16 17 17 15 na naImport cover, months of imports 9 8 7 6 7 8 11 8 9 10 10 na naDebt indicatorsGross external debt, $bn 16.3 18.0 19.0 20.5 22.9 35.1 46.9 60.0 68.3 74.5 80.2 na naGross external debt, % of GDP 28.6 26.5 24.8 26.0 28.2 50.9 71.6 84.9 85.6 97.7 126.9 na naGross external debt, % of exports 44.7 38.4 36.5 36.4 42.8 98.4 170.4 182.6 164.0 192.9 257.5 na naInterest & exchange ratesBroad money supply, % YoY 11.30 12.20 10.70 9.40 15.30 10.00 1.80 4.20 8.30 2.00 8.90 na naBase interest rate, % year-end 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.26 2.06 3.01 2.28 0.50 na naExchange rate, OMR/EUR year-end 0.52 0.50 0.51 0.53 0.47 0.42 0.40 0.46 0.44 0.43 0.47 0.47 0.47Exchange rate, OMR/EUR annual average 0.51 0.54 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.44 0.46 0.47Exchange rate, OMR/$ year-end 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.39Exchange rate, OMR/$ annual average 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.39Credit rating history LatestMoody's A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's A A A A A BBB+ BBB- BB BB BB B+ B+ naFitch - - - - - - - BBB BB+ BB+ BB- BB- na

Source: CBO, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Pakistan 49 PAK 564 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 71: Pakistan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/B- EODB Rank: 108 (136) - Middle Corruption Rank: 124 (120) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 11 (11) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 2.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.6 5.2 5.5 1.9 -0.4 1.5 4.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 15.8 14.1 15.1 15.0 14.6 15.7 15.7 16.2 17.3 15.6 15.4 15.5 15.9 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.6 4.1 4.5 5.0 4.8 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 14,867 18,276 20,047 22,386 25,169 27,443 29,076 31,922 34,616 37,972 41,727 45,778 52,057 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 177 213 223 231 244 270 278 305 313 276 263 281 310 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 172 175 179 183 186 190 194 197 201 205 209 212 216 LPGDP per capita ($) 1,029 1,217 1,247 1,264 1,310 1,423 1,436 1,544 1,558 1,349 1,261 1,322 1,432 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 3,183 3,313 3,396 3,608 3,924 4,222 4,805 5,444 6,518 6,871 7,147 na naLending/GDP (%) 21.4 18.1 16.9 16.1 15.6 15.4 16.5 17.1 18.8 18.1 17.1 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 13.6 14.2 13.0 13.9 13.4 14.7 13.9 12.1 11.2 10.7 14.3 14.0 14.1 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 10.1 13.7 11.0 7.4 8.6 4.5 2.9 4.1 3.9 6.7 10.7 8.7 8.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 11.8 13.3 11.3 5.9 8.2 3.2 3.2 3.9 5.2 8.0 8.6 10.0 7.9 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -6.0 -6.7 -8.6 -8.4 -4.9 -5.3 -4.4 -5.8 -6.4 -9.0 -8.0 -7.1 -5.5 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -1.7 -2.9 -4.2 -3.9 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 -1.5 -2.1 -3.5 -1.7 -1.0 0.4 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 60.7 59.0 63.4 64.5 63.5 63.3 67.6 67.1 72.1 85.6 87.2 87.7 83.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 18 21 25 25 25 25 22 21 22 23 23 22 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 32 38 44 44 44 48 44 47 57 60 50 46 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -16 -18 -19 -19 -23 -22 -26 -36 -37 -27 -24 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9 -9 -9 -8 -9 -8 -10 -12 -12 -10 -9 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -4 0 -5 -2 -3 -3 -5 -12 -19 -13 -3 -4 -6 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -2 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -6 -5 -1 -2 -2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 1 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -6 -4 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 23 18 -3 2 -2 -10 -7 5 8 1 -6 na naImports (% YoY, value) 19 16 1 0 9 -7 7 22 5 -17 -8 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 14 15 10 5 12 18 20 16 9 13 15 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5 4 3 1 3 5 5 3 2 3 4 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 65 66 64 61 64 68 76 89 99 111 114 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 36 31 29 26 26 25 27 29 32 40 43 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 300 261 257 242 258 309 368 416 427 476 518 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 4 3 4 5 5 6 7 9 8 10 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 19 13 15 18 22 29 35 41 35 41 33 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 29 22 37 88 46 36 36 55 88 71 50 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 4 3 5 7 5 4 4 7 6 11 16 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 6 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 20 12 20 28 19 19 21 32 26 47 72 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 30 21 48 135 41 23 22 43 66 82 108 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 14.0 12.0 9.5 10.0 9.5 6.0 5.8 5.8 10.0 13.3 7.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 14.6 12.6 17.4 13.3 11.5 12.2 13.6 9.9 9.8 11.7 15.6 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 112 119 116 129 137 113 116 118 131 154 159 163 168Exchange rate ($) annual average 84 86 90 97 103 102 105 105 111 138 na na naCredit rating history Latest

Moody's B3 B3 Caa1 Caa1 Caa1 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's B- B- B- B- B- B- B B B B- B- B- naFitch - - - - - B B B B- B- B- B- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are RenCap forecasts




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Peru 50 PER 293 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 72: Peru key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/BBB+/BBB+ EODB Rank: 76 (68) - Middle Corruption Rank: 94 (101) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 34 (36) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.5 6.5 6.0 5.8 2.4 3.3 4.4 2.1 4.0 2.2 -11.1 8.5 5.2 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 24.4 24.4 24.1 25.6 24.7 23.7 22.2 20.6 21.7 21.5 18.8 21.1 22.0 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 7.9 7.7 6.8 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.6 13.6 9.7 7.6 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 421 471 509 546 574 609 658 698 740 770 712 815 872 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 149 171 193 202 202 191 195 214 225 231 204 226 241 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.5 30.8 31.2 31.5 31.8 32.2 33.2 33.5 33.8 34.2 LPGDP per capita ($) 5,055 5,738 6,400 6,631 6,565 6,141 6,191 6,726 7,000 6,958 6,084 6,678 7,051 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 126 153 173 205 233 265 277 292 321 341 na na naLending/GDP (%) 30.0 32.5 34.0 37.5 40.6 43.5 42.1 41.8 43.4 44.3 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.0 22.5 20.9 20.5 20.2 18.7 19.6 19.3 20.0 19.9 19.3 20.7 21.3 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.5 3.4 3.7 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 2.8 1.3 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 2.1 4.7 2.6 2.9 3.2 4.4 3.2 1.4 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.1 2.0 2.1 0.7 -0.2 -2.1 -2.2 -2.9 -2.0 -1.4 -8.4 -4.8 -3.1 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 1.2 3.0 3.0 1.7 0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -1.9 -0.9 -0.2 -6.9 -3.2 -1.7 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 25.3 23.0 21.2 20.0 20.6 24.1 24.4 25.4 26.2 27.1 35.4 35.4 36.2 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 27 35 46 45 42 38 33 37 45 48 45 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 23 32 40 45 46 45 40 38 42 46 44 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 3 6 0 -4 -7 -7 -1 3 2 0 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 2 3 0 -2 -3 -4 0 1 1 0 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -4 -3 -6 -10 -9 -10 -5 -3 -4 -4 1 -1 -2 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -2 -2 -3 -5 -4 -5 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 8 7 12 9 3 8 6 6 6 8 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5 4 6 5 1 4 3 3 3 3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 3 2 3 -1 -3 -1 0 2 1 2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 32 31 -1 -8 -8 -14 12 21 7 -7 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 38 26 12 3 -3 -10 -6 11 9 -3 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 43 47 62 64 61 60 61 62 59 66 na na naImport cover (months of imports) 16 14 17 17 16 18 19 18 15 18 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 42 45 54 57 61 66 70 68 67 64 69 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 28 26 28 28 30 34 36 32 30 28 34 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 119 98 119 135 160 199 188 151 139 143 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 6 6 9 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 4 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 18 14 20 15 18 21 21 19 21 19 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 15 13 14 10 11 12 13 14 17 13 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 7 4 7 7 6 6 8 11 7 7 9 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 4 2 3 4 3 3 4 5 3 3 4 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 19 9 14 18 14 17 21 25 15 15 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 16 9 11 12 9 9 13 18 12 10 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 3.0 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.8 4.3 3.3 2.8 2.3 0.3 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 21.7 15.1 12.5 15.3 9.5 11.5 4.4 8.8 9.6 8.8 29.0 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 3.75 3.84 3.39 3.59 3.77 3.54 3.74 3.68 3.88 3.74 4.00 4.43 4.50Exchange rate ($) annual average 2.83 2.75 2.64 2.70 2.84 3.19 3.38 3.26 3.29 3.34 3.50 3.61 3.62Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 naStandard & Poor's BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Philippines 51 PHL 566 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 73: Philippines key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa2/BBB+/BBB EODB Rank: 95 (124) - Middle Corruption Rank: 115 (113) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 28 (27) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.3 3.9 6.9 6.8 6.3 6.3 7.1 6.9 6.3 6.0 -9.5 6.9 6.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 20.4 20.7 19.6 20.6 20.9 21.3 24.6 25.6 27.2 26.2 17.4 17.9 19.2 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 7.3 7.0 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.3 5.5 5.7 5.3 5.1 10.4 7.4 6.3 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 9,399 10,145 11,061 12,051 13,207 13,944 15,132 16,557 18,265 19,516 17,976 19,971 21,904 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 208 234 262 284 297 306 319 328 347 377 362 403 435 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 93 95 96 98 99 101 103 104 106 107 109 110 112 LPGDP per capita ($) 2,237 2,473 2,721 2,903 2,996 3,039 3,108 3,153 3,280 3,512 3,330 3,646 3,877 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 2,663 3,094 3,529 4,138 4,963 5,564 6,486 7,551 8,687 9,363 9,308 na naLending/GDP (%) 28.3 30.5 31.9 34.3 37.6 39.9 42.9 45.6 47.6 48.0 51.8 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 23.9 23.1 22.2 24.7 24.5 23.7 24.2 24.9 24.6 25.3 20.6 17.5 17.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.8 4.7 3.2 2.6 3.6 0.7 1.3 2.9 5.2 2.5 2.6 3.4 3.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.6 4.1 2.9 3.8 1.9 0.8 2.2 2.9 5.1 2.5 3.5 2.8 3.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -1.6 -1.8 -5.5 -7.4 -5.5 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 0.7 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.5 1.4 1.3 0.1 -0.2 -3.5 -4.9 -2.8 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 47.6 45.4 45.7 43.8 40.2 39.6 37.3 38.1 37.1 37.0 47.1 51.9 54.4 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 39 51 48 52 54 62 59 56 63 67 71 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 46 60 66 68 68 71 73 91 93 109 121 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -9 -18 -16 -14 -9 -15 -35 -30 -41 -50 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -4 -8 -6 -5 -3 -5 -11 -9 -12 -13 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 7 6 7 11 11 7 -1 -2 -9 -3 12 -2 -9 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 3 2 3 4 4 2 0 -1 -3 -1 3 0 -2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 6 7 6 4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2.7 2.3 2.3 4.0 3.3 2.4 1.5 1.5 -0.9 0.3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 31 -7 8 4 14 -5 -4 12 7 5 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 31 10 3 0 4 3 25 2 17 11 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 55 67 73 76 72 74 73 73 71 80 99 na naImport cover (months of imports) 11 12 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 60 60 60 59 78 77 75 73 79 84 92 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 29 26 23 21 26 25 23 22 23 22 25 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 117 126 116 108 126 132 133 116 117 118 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 6 7 8 11 16 15 15 14 16 17 11 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 12 15 16 21 26 26 26 23 24 24 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 11 10 12 15 23 20 20 19 23 22 11 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 11 10 6 6 8 11 11 11 9 10 8 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 6 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 22 20 11 11 12 18 20 18 13 15 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 21 14 8 8 10 14 15 15 12 13 8 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.0 4.5 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 4.8 4.0 2.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 8.4 4.9 7.4 28.8 12.4 9.3 13.4 11.3 9.0 9.8 8.6 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 59.8 60.3 54.3 56.4 59.0 50.5 52.6 57.0 62.2 58.0 56.7 61.0 62.6Exchange rate ($) annual average 45.1 43.3 42.2 42.4 44.4 45.5 47.5 50.4 52.7 51.8 49.6 49.6 50.4Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Ba3 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 naStandard & Poor's BB BB BB+ BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch BB BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Poland 52 POL 964 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 74: Poland key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A2/A-/A- EODB Rank: 40 (33) - Strong Corruption Rank: 45 (41) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 77 (78) - Strong

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.7 4.8 1.3 1.1 3.4 4.2 3.1 4.8 5.4 4.5 -2.7 3.5 4.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 21.5 22.7 21.3 19.3 20.7 20.6 19.7 19.9 20.8 19.8 17.3 17.0 17.7 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 9.6 9.6 10.1 10.3 9.0 7.5 6.2 4.9 3.8 3.3 3.2 4.9 4.5 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 1,447 1,565 1,623 1,647 1,711 1,801 1,863 1,990 2,122 2,288 2,317 2,490 2,668 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 480 528 499 521 543 477 472 527 587 596 594 642 697 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 LPGDP per capita ($) 12,620 13,880 13,097 13,688 14,272 12,564 12,439 13,869 15,468 15,689 15,654 16,930 18,407 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 705 805 816 846 900 965 1,014 1,044 1,115 1,162 1,164 na naLending/GDP (%) 48.7 51.4 50.3 51.4 52.6 53.6 54.4 52.5 52.5 50.8 50.2 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 16.0 17.3 17.2 17.4 18.0 19.7 18.9 19.5 19.5 20.2 20.8 19.0 19.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 2.6 4.3 3.7 0.9 0.0 -0.9 -0.6 2.0 1.6 2.3 3.4 3.2 2.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.1 4.6 2.4 0.7 -1.0 -0.5 0.8 2.1 1.1 3.4 2.4 2.7 2.6 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -7.4 -4.9 -3.8 -4.2 -3.7 -2.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.2 -0.7 -8.2 -4.7 -2.6 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -4.9 -2.4 -1.1 -1.7 -1.7 -0.9 -0.7 0.1 1.2 0.6 -6.9 -3.7 -1.7 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 53.4 54.6 54.3 56.4 51.1 51.3 54.2 50.6 48.8 45.7 57.7 57.4 56.1 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 137 160 189 185 205 220 199 204 234 264 266 271 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 150 178 211 199 208 224 196 200 234 269 265 257 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -18 -22 -14 -3 -4 3 4 1 -5 1 14 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 1 1 0 -1 0 2 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -27 -28 -20 -9 -14 -4 -4 -2 -8 3 21 na na BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -6 -5 -4 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 0 3 2 1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 7 15 10 4 11 10 4 6 14 11 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 1 0 1 1 2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 17 18 -2 11 7 -10 2 15 12 1 2 na naImports (% YoY, value) 19 18 -5 4 8 -12 2 17 15 -1 -3 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 89 93 103 102 96 91 111 109 112 117 140 na naImport cover (months of imports) 6 5 6 6 5 6 7 6 5 5 7 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 317 324 369 384 357 331 340 383 360 350 352 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 66 61 74 74 66 69 72 73 61 59 59 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 199 172 199 187 162 166 167 163 137 131 130 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 48 45 42 46 38 37 52 51 51 56 50 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 8 9 9 7 8 11 10 9 9 8 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 30 24 23 23 17 18 26 22 19 21 19 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 55 48 41 45 39 40 47 47 45 48 36 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 3.5 4.5 4.3 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.1 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 8.8 12.5 4.5 6.2 8.2 9.1 9.6 4.6 9.2 8.3 16.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 4.00 4.13 4.19 4.20 4.19 4.19 4.37 4.27 4.27 4.30 4.44 4.77 4.75Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.02 2.96 3.26 3.16 3.15 3.77 3.95 3.78 3.61 3.84 3.90 3.88 3.83Credit rating history Latest

Moody's A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 A2 naStandard & Poor's A- A- A- A- A- A- BBB+ BBB+ A- A- A- A- naFitch A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- na

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Transparency International, WJP, Bloomberg, NBP, FocusEconomics, Renaissance Capital



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Qatar 53 QAT 453 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 75: Qatar key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa3/AA-/AA- EODB Rank: 77 (83) - Middle Corruption Rank: 30 (30) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP, % YoY 17.7 11.3 4.7 5.6 5.3 4.8 3.1 -1.5 1.2 0.8 -2.6 2.4 3.6 7.424Nominal GDP, QARbn 435.7 610.7 680.1 723.4 750.7 588.7 552.3 586.4 667.3 640.0 531.8 604.4 634.7 30.484Nominal GDP, $bn 119.7 167.8 186.8 198.7 206.2 161.7 151.7 161.1 183.3 175.8 146.1 166.0 174.4 79.283Population, mn 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4.703GDP per capita, $ 69,796 96,828 101,933 99,180 93,054 66,347 57,965 59,127 66,422 62,919 52,144 59,143 61,963 16858Gross national saving (% of GDP) 48 60 60 58 56 46 43 50 54 49 39 43 44 18.479Unemployment rate, % 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 na na n/aCredit to private sector, QARbn 211 254 290 336 417 510 545 569 622 722 776 na na n/aCredit to private sector, % of GDP 48.5 41.7 42.7 46.4 55.5 86.7 98.8 97.1 93.2 113 145.9 na na n/aDeposits, QARbn 235 238 277 318 373 441 541 508 528 576 642 na na n/aLoan-to-deposit ratio 90 107 105 105 112 116 101 112 118 125 121 na na n/aPricesCPI, % YoY annual average -2.4 2.0 1.8 3.1 4.2 0.9 2.7 0.4 0.3 -0.7 -2.7 2.4 2.9 2.403CPI, % YoY year-end 0.4 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.7 1.5 0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -3.4 6.3 -0.3 2.403Fiscal balance Budget balance, % of GDP 7.1 7.3 10.5 21.6 15.4 21.7 -4.8 -2.5 5.9 4.9 1.3 1.4 7.3 -1.523Total public debt, % of GDP 30.4 33.5 32.1 30.9 24.9 35.5 46.7 51.6 52.2 62.3 71.8 59.8 53.9 66.805External balanceMerchandise exports, $bn 44 75 114 133 133 127 77 57 67 84 73 51 na na n/aMerchandise imports, $bn 24 21 27 31 31 31 28 32 31 33 31 24 na na n/aTrade balance, $bn 54 87 102 102 96 49 25 37 51 42 27 na na n/aTrade balance (% of GDP) n/aCurrent account balance, $bn 24 52 62 60 49 14 -8 6 17 4 -5 12 14 -2.158Current account balance, % of GDP 20 31 33 30 24 9 -5 4 9 2 -3 7 8 -2.721Net FDI, $bn - -1 0 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 2 3 2 na na n/aNet FDI, % of GDP - -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 2 2 na na n/aCurrent account balance plus FDI, % of GDP - 31 33 31 23 8 -6 3 10 4 -2 na na n/aExports, % YoY 56 53 16 0 -5 -39 -26 18 25 -13 -29 na na n/aImports, % YoY -7 29 14 2 -1 -9 12 -4 8 -6 -22 na na n/aInternational reserves, $bn 31 16 33 42 43 37 44 38 49 54 56 na na n/aImport cover, months of imports 18 7 13 16 17 16 16 15 18 21 28 na na n/aDebt indicatorsGross external debt, $bn 107 137 118 115 116 143 193 166 195 231 236 na na n/a

Gross external debt, % of GDP 89 82 63 58 56 88 127 103 106 131 161 na na n/a

Gross external debt, % of exports 142 120 88 86 92 185 337 247 231 317 458 na na n/a

Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply, % YoY 23 17 23 20 11 3 -5 21 -7 2 4 na na n/a

Policy interest rate, % year-end 5.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.00 4.25 2.50 na na n/a

Exchange rate, QAR/EUR year-end 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.0 4.4 4.0 3.8 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.4 0.385

Exchange rate, QAR/EUR annual average 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.4 0.385

Exchange rate, QAR/$ year-end 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 0.4697

Exchange rate, QAR/$ annual average 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 0.4697

Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 na n/aStandard & Poor's AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- na n/aFitch - - - - - AA AA AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- na n/a

Source: Planning and Statistics Authority, QCB, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Romania 54 ROU 968 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 76: Romania key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB-/BBB- EODB Rank: 55 (52) - Middle Corruption Rank: 69 (70) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 71 (73) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) -3.9 1.9 2.0 3.8 3.6 3.0 4.7 7.3 4.5 4.1 -3.9 6.0 4.8 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 27.1 28.1 27.0 25.5 24.8 25.1 23.4 23.4 22.8 23.7 22.9 23.6 24.0 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 7.0 7.1 6.8 7.1 6.8 6.8 5.9 4.9 4.2 3.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 529 559 592 635 670 712 764 858 952 1058 1049 1156 1248 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 166 183 171 191 200 178 188 212 241 250 247 289 316 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.3 LPGDP per capita ($) 8,195 9,076 8,491 9,530 10,022 8,942 9,520 10,777 12,363 12,867 12,797 14,968 16,378 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 207 220 223 216 208 213 215 227 245 262 275.0 na naLending/GDP (%) 39.2 39.3 37.7 34.0 31.0 29.9 28.1 26.5 25.7 24.8 26.2 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 22.0 23.1 22.2 24.7 24.6 24.5 22.0 20.6 18.4 19.0 17.8 18.6 19.3 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 6.1 5.8 3.3 4.0 1.1 -0.6 -1.6 1.3 4.6 3.8 2.6 2.8 2.1 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 8.0 3.1 5.0 1.6 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 3.3 3.3 4.0 2.1 2.8 2.5 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -6.4 -4.3 -2.5 -2.5 -1.7 -1.4 -2.4 -2.8 -2.8 -4.6 -9.7 -7.1 -6.3 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -5.1 -2.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -0.1 -1.1 -1.7 -1.5 -3.5 -8.4 -5.6 -4.6 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 30.8 34.3 38.0 39.1 40.4 39.4 39.0 36.8 36.5 36.8 50.1 52.6 55.0 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 41 50 63 58 66 70 61 64 71 80 77 66 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 54 62 77 70 73 78 70 75 85 98 97 87 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -12 -13 -12 -8 -8 -9 -11 -15 -18 -20 -21 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -8 -7 -7 -4 -4 -5 -6 -7 -7 -8 -9 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -9 -9 -8 -1 0 -1 -3 -6 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -5 -5 -5 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 3 2 3 4 4 3 5 6 6 6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3 -4 -3 1 2 1 1 0 -2 -2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 22 27 -8 14 6 -13 5 11 13 -3 -14 na naImports (% YoY, value) 14 23 -8 5 6 -10 7 15 14 -1 -10 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 43 43 41 45 39 35 36 40 38 37 46 na naImport cover (months of imports) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 125 129 133 135 115 98 98 117 114 119 138 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 75 71 78 71 58 55 52 55 47 48 56 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 253 205 230 205 165 162 154 165 144 155 210 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 17 19 16 16 12 12 12 15 16 16 16 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 11 10 8 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 35 31 28 24 18 21 19 21 20 21 25 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 40 45 40 35 31 35 34 37 43 44 36 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policyKey policy rate (% YE) 6.3 6.0 5.3 4.0 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.5 1.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 6.9 6.6 2.7 8.8 8.4 9.3 9.7 11.5 8.8 10.9 15.3 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 4.22 4.25 4.46 4.42 4.45 4.45 4.49 4.58 4.66 4.74 4.84 4.91 4.90Exchange rate ($) annual average 3.18 3.05 3.47 3.33 3.35 4.01 4.06 4.05 3.94 4.24 4.24 4.00 3.94Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BB+ BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- na

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Transparency International, WJP, Bloomberg, NBR, FocusEconomics



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Russia 55 RUS 922 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 77: Russia key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa3/BBB-/BBB EODB Rank: 28 (31) - Strong Corruption Rank: 129 (137) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 25 (27) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.5 4.3 4.0 1.8 0.7 -2.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 2.0 -3.1 4.0 2.8 NGDP_RPCHPrivate consumption (% YoY) 5.5 6.8 7.9 5.2 2.0 -9.5 -2.6 3.7 3.3 2.3 -8.6 8.9 3.1 NID_NGDPGovernment consumption (% YoY) -1.5 1.4 2.6 0.9 -2.1 -3.6 1.4 2.5 1.3 2.8 4.0 1.0 0.5 LURInvestment (% YoY) 5.9 9.1 5.0 1.3 -1.8 -10.6 1.3 4.7 0.1 1.4 -6.2 5.5 3.5 NGDPIndustrial production (% YoY) 8.3 4.8 2.5 0.3 1.7 -3.4 1.3 2.1 3.5 2.3 -2.9 4.2 2.9 NGDPDUnemployment rate (%) 7.5 6.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.7 5.9 4.5 4.3 LPNominal GDP (RUBbn) 46,309 60,114 68,103 72,986 79,030 83,087 85,616 91,843 103,862 109,193 106,607 125,199 129,959 NGDPDPCNominal GDP ($bn) 1,523 2,045 2,197 2,288 2,047 1,353 1,279 1,575 1,652 1,689 1,472 1,692 1,854Population (mn) 143 143 143 144 146 147 147 147 147 147 146 146 146GDP per capita ($) 10,660 14,299 15,331 15,922 13,995 9,237 8,711 10,718 11,253 11,511 10,063 11,588 12,715 NGSD_NGDPGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 24.8 29.0 27.8 24.7 25.2 27.1 25.0 25.7 28.9 26.6 25.6 27.3 26.7Stock of bank credit to corp/households (RUBbn)18,148 23,266 27,709 32,456 40,866 43,985 40,939 42,366 48,273 51,427 57,814 65,329 71,862 PCPIPCHStock of bank credit to corp/households (% of GDP)39.2 38.7 40.7 44.5 51.7 52.9 47.8 46.1 46.5 47.1 54.2 52.2 55.3 PCPIEPCHDeposits (RUBbn) 20,234 24,649 28,816 33,858 41,970 50,283 48,522 50,831 56,466 58,695 73,911 82,041 88,604Loan-to-deposit ratio 89.7 94.4 96.2 95.9 97.4 87.5 84.4 83.3 85.5 87.6 78.2 79.6 81.1 GGXCNL_NGDPPrices GGXONLB_NGDPCPI (average % YoY) 6.9 8.4 5.1 6.8 7.8 15.6 7.1 3.7 2.9 4.5 3.4 5.6 3.4 GGXWDG_NGDPCPI (end-year % YoY) 8.8 6.1 6.6 6.5 11.4 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.3 3.0 4.9 4.7 3.3Nominal wages (monthly), RUB 20,952 23,369 26,629 29,792 32,495 34,030 36,709 39,167 43,724 47,867 51,083 54,659 58,212 TXG_FOB_USDWage rates (% YoY, nominal) 12.4 11.5 14.0 11.9 9.1 4.7 7.9 6.7 11.6 9.5 6.7 7.0 6.5 TMG_CIF_USDFiscal balance Federal government balance (% of GDP) -3.5 1.6 0.0 -0.8 -0.5 -2.6 -3.4 -1.4 2.6 1.8 -3.8 2.2 0.5Total public debt (% of GDP) 11.7 11.0 9.9 13.0 14.8 15.7 16.5 15.5 14.6 15.2 18.9 18.0 18.5 BCAExternal balance BCA_NGDPDExports ($bn) 393 515 527 522 497 341 282 353 443 420 330 448 447Imports ($bn) 246 319 336 341 308 193 191 238 249 255 240 268 287Trade balance ($bn) 147 197 192 181 189 148 90 115 194 165 89 180 160Trade balance (% of GDP) 10 10 9 8 9 11 7 7 12 10 6 11 9Current account balance ($bn) 67 97 71 33 58 68 24 32 116 65 33 90 67Current account balance (% of GDP) 4 5 3 1 3 5 2 2 7 4 2 5 4Gross FDI ($bn) 43 55 51 69 22 7 33 29 9 27 15 10 20Gross FDI (% of GDP) 3 3 2 3 1 1 3 2 1 2 1 1 1Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 7 7 6 4 4 6 4 4 8 5 3 6 5Exports (% YoY, value) 32 31 2 -1 -5 -31 -17 25 26 -5 -22 36 0Imports (% YoY, value) 34 30 5 2 -10 -37 -1 24 4 2 -6 12 7Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) 479 499 538 430 385 368 378 433 468 554 596 625 660Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 23 19 19 15 15 23 24 22 23 26 30 28 28Debt indicatorsGross external debt year-end ($bn) 489 539 636 716 600 518 512 518 455 491 470 485 505Gross external debt (% of GDP) 32.1 26.4 29.0 31.3 29.3 38.3 40.0 32.9 27.5 29.1 31.9 28.7 27.2Gross external debt (% of exports) 124 105 121 137 121 152 182 147 103 117 143 108 113Total debt service ($bn) 158 177 205 230 179 128 134 137 140 137 135 139 144Total debt service (% of GDP) 10.4 8.7 9.3 10.1 8.7 9.4 10.5 8.7 8.5 8.1 9.2 8.2 7.8Total debt service (% of exports) 40.3 34.3 38.8 44.2 36.0 37.4 47.5 38.7 31.6 32.6 41.0 31.0 32.2Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (% YoY) 31.1 21.0 12.2 14.7 1.5 11.3 9.2 10.5 11.0 8.0 15.0 11.0 8.0Key rate (%) year-end 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 10.00 7.75 7.75 6.25 4.25 5.75 5.75Exchange rate (RUB/EUR) year-end 41 42 40 45 68 80 65 69 79 70 91 87 89Exchange rate (RUB/EUR) annual avg 40 41 40 42 51 68 74 66 74 72 83 90 86Exchange rate (RUB/$) year-end 31 32 31 33 56 73 62 58 70 62 74 71 71Exchange rate (RUB/$) annual average 30 29 31 32 39 61 67 58 63 65 72 74 70Credit rating history LatestMoody's Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 naStandard & Poor's BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- naFitch BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB BBB BBB na

Source: Rosstat, CBR, MinFin, Federal Treasury, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



76

Rwanda 56 RWA 714 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 78: Rwanda key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B+/B+ EODB Rank: 38 (29) - Strong Corruption Rank: 49 (51) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 67 (64) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 7.3 7.9 8.6 4.7 6.2 8.8 6.0 4.0 8.6 9.4 -3.3 5.0 6.5 NGDP_RPCHPrivate consumption (%YoY) 7.5 9.3 7.3 3.8 4.8 14.5 1.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 NID_NGDPGovernment consumption (%YoY) 4.8 13.5 19.8 -0.3 15.5 -12.8 21.0 15.0 15.0 16.0 LURInvestment (%YoY) 7.5 22.8 21.8 9.0 9.0 8.5 16.0 6.0 10.0 12.0 NGDPIndustry value added (%YoY) 8.3 17.8 8.4 9.4 11.0 8.8 6.7 4.3 10.0 8.0 NGDPDNominal GDP (Rwfbn) 3,367 3,897 4,494 4,929 5,466 5,968 6,672 7,597 8,291 9,105 9,841 10,641 11,862 LPNominal GDP (€bn) 4.2 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.7 7.7 8.1 8.2 8.9 8.8 8.7 9.1 NGDPDPCNominal GDP (US$bn) 5.6 6.3 7.1 7.1 7.9 8.6 8.5 9.1 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.2Population (m) 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3GDP per capita (US$) 559 622 676 665 719 758 737 767 787 805 807 816 846 NGSD_NGDPGross national saving (% of GDP) 7.0 5.6 9.5 11.9 8.5 6.2 5.8 12.3 10.1 14.3 3.7 11.0 14.4Bank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 391 502 670 758 906 1,137 1,258 1,439 1,622 1,827 2,009 2,250 2,520 PCPIPCHLending/GDP (%) 11.6 12.9 14.9 15.4 16.6 19.0 18.9 18.9 19.6 20.1 20.4 21.1 21.2 PCPIEPCHLoan to deposit ratio 86.0 87.0 94.0 88.0 87.0 88.0 91.7 91.7 90.5 92.7 93.5 94.0 94.0Prices GGXCNL_NGDPCPI urban (average %YoY) 3.8 5.7 6.3 4.2 2.1 2.5 5.7 4.9 1.4 2.4 7.7 4.4 5.3 GGXONLB_NGDPCPI urban (end-year %YoY) 4.5 8.3 3.9 3.6 1.8 4.5 7.0 1.0 1.1 6.7 3.7 5.0 5.5 GGXWDG_NGDPFiscal balance (% of GDP)General government budget balance (incl. grants) 0.4 -1.2 -5.0 -4.0 -4.0 -2.8 -4.9 -4.7 -5.6 -9.4 -8.9 -8.1 -6.9 TXG_FOB_USDTotal public debt 19.3 16.7 18.9 20.8 26.6 32.2 36.4 41.3 45.0 51.0 61.0 66.0 67.9 TMG_CIF_USDExternal balanceExports (US$bn) 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Imports (US$bn) 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 BCATrade balance (US$bn) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 BCA_NGDPDTrade balance (% of GDP) -14 -17 -19 -16 -16 -16 -15 -10 -9 -11 -16 -11 -12C/A balance incl offical transfers (US$bn) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1C/A balance incl official transfers (% of GDP) -8 -8 -10 -8 -12 -15 -16 -8 -8 -9 -13 -11 -10Net FDI (US$bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net FDI (% of GDP) 1 2 2 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 1 2 3Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -7 -6 -8 -4 -9 -11 -12 -5 -5 -6 -12 -8 -7Exports (%YoY value) 37 44 27 19 3 -8 12 41 7 0 27 -5 10Imports (%YoY value) 9 44 26 -6 8 1 6 6 7 8 9 10 11Foreign exchange reserves (ex gold US$bn) 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.6Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 7.7 7.2 4.4 6.1 6.0 5.4 5.9 7.3 7.6 7.0 4.6 4.6 7.1Debt indicatorsGross external debt (US$bn) 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8Gross external debt (% of GDP) 14 16 21 27 28 33 42 46 49 54 63 70 72Gross external debt (% of exports) 244 222 257 270 306 423 473 396 419 480 453 552 543Total debt service (US$bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Total debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10Total debt service (% of exports) 6 4 6 6 8 9 8 7 8 8 23 12 11Exchange ratesKey repo rate YE 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 11.2 28.4 30.4 12.6 19.7 25.4 10.7 14.4 12.7 12.6 10.0 12.0 12.0Exchange rate (Rwf/EUR) year-end 796 783 833 932 835 809 864 1,008 1,008 1,029 1,203 1,254 1,353Exchange rate (Rwf/EUR) annual average 774 837 790 894 902 793 864 935 1,008 1,021 1,114 1,228 1,303Exchange rate (Rwf/$) year-end 594 604 631 676 690 745 822 854 884 935 985 1,028 1,082Exchange rate (Rwf/$) annual average 583 601 614 673 686 719 786 838 869 912 960 1,006 1,055Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - - - B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's - B B B B B+ B B B B+ B+ B+ naFitch B B B B B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




77

Saudi Arabia 57 SAU 456 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 79: Saudi Arabia key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) A1/A-u/A EODB Rank: 62 (92) - Middle Corruption Rank: 52 (51) - Middle RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP, % YoY 5.0 10.0 5.4 2.7 3.7 4.1 1.7 -0.7 2.4 0.3 -4.1 1.7 5.3 NGDP_RPCHNominal GDP, SARbn 1,981 2,517 2,760 2,800 2,836 2,454 2,419 2,582 2,949 2,974 2,631 2,984 3,105 NID_NGDPNominal GDP, $bn 528 671 736 747 756 654 645 689 787 793 701 796 828 LURPopulation, mn 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.0 30.3 31.1 31.8 32.6 33.4 34.1 34.8 35.5 36.2 NGDPGDP per capita, $ 19,163 23,655 25,208 24,893 24,929 21,063 20,289 21,114 23,539 23,266 20,178 22,439 22,891 NGDPDGross national saving (% of GDP) 43.6 50.6 48.9 44.6 38.5 26.5 27.2 30.4 33.4 32.6 25.5 30.6 30.3 LPUnemployment rate, % 5.5 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.0 5.7 7.4 n/a n/a NGDPDPCClaims on private sector, SARbn 776 863 1,008 1,133 1,270 1,385 1,418 1,405 1,445 1,547 1,762 n/a n/aClaims on private sector, % of GDP 39.2 34.3 36.5 40.5 44.8 56.4 58.6 54.4 49.0 52.0 67.0 n/a n/aDeposits, SARbn 985 1,120 1,275 1,418 1,588 1,617 1,629 1,633 1,674 1,796 1,943 n/a n/a NGSD_NGDPLoan-to-deposit ratio 78.8 77.1 79.0 79.9 80.0 85.6 87.0 86.0 86.4 86.1 90.7 n/a n/aPrices PCPIPCHCPI, % YoY annual average 5.4 3.9 2.9 3.6 2.2 1.2 2.0 -0.8 2.5 -2.1 3.4 2.7 2.0 PCPIEPCHCPI, % YoY year-end 5.4 2.7 3.6 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.9 -1.0 1.9 -0.2 5.4 0.6 2.0Fiscal balance GGXCNL_NGDPBudget balance, % of GDP 4.4 11.6 11.9 5.6 -3.5 -15.8 -12.9 -9.2 -5.9 -4.5 -11.2 -4.7 -2.9 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt, % of GDP 8.4 5.4 3.0 2.1 1.6 5.8 13.1 17.2 19.0 22.8 32.4 31.4 32.6 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal balanceMerchandise exports, $bn 215 251 365 388 376 342 204 184 222 294 262 175 237 250 TXG_FOB_USDMerchandise imports, $bn 93 97 120 142 153 158 159 128 123 126 140 119 127 132 TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance, $bn 154 245 247 223 184 44 56 98 169 121 56 110 118Trade balance (% of GDP) 29 36 34 30 24 7 9 14 21 15 8 14 14Current account balance, $bn 67 159 165 135 74 -57 -24 10 72 38 -11 31 27 BCACurrent account balance, % of GDP 13 24 22 18 10 -9 -4 2 9 5 -2 4 3 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI, $bn 25 13 8 4 3 3 -1 -6 -15 -9 1 n/a n/aNet FDI, % of GDP 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 n/a n/aCurrent account balance plus FDI, % of GDP 17 26 23 19 10 -8 -4 1 7 4 -2 n/a n/aExports, % YoY 31 45 6 -3 -9 -41 -10 21 33 -11 -33 n/a n/aImports, % YoY 12 23 18 8 3 1 -20 -3 2 12 -15 n/a n/aInternational reserves, $bn 445 544 657 726 732 616 536 496 497 500 454 n/a n/aImport cover, months of imports 55 54 56 57 55 46 50 48 47 43 46 n/a n/aDebt indicatorsGross external debt, $bn 94 91 93 92 99 90 159 125 151 186 239 n/a n/aGross external debt, % of GDP 18 14 13 12 13 14 25 18 19 23 34 n/a n/aGross external debt, % of exports 37 25 24 24 29 44 86 56 51 71 136 n/a n/aInterest & exchange ratesBroad money supply, % YoY 5.00 14.73 13.60 10.87 11.58 2.51 0.79 0.30 2.69 7.09 8.27 n/a n/aBase interest rate, % year-end 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 2.25 1.00 n/a n/aExchange rate, SAR/EUR year-end 5.02 4.86 4.95 5.15 4.54 4.08 3.95 4.50 4.30 4.21 4.58 4.65 4.69Exchange rate, SAR/EUR annual average 4.98 5.22 4.82 4.98 4.98 4.16 4.15 4.24 4.43 4.20 4.29 4.58 4.67Exchange rate, SAR/$ year-end 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.76 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75Exchange rate, SAR/$ annual average 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 A1 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- A+ A- A- A- A- A- A- naFitch AA- AA- AA- AA- AA AA AA- A+ A+ A A A na

Source: General Authority for Statistics, SAMA, MinFin, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



78

Senegal 58 SEN 722 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 80: Senegal key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/B+/- EODB Rank: 123 (141) - Middle Corruption Rank: 67 (66) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 48 (48) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.4 1.3 4.0 2.4 6.2 6.4 6.4 7.4 6.2 4.4 0.8 5.2 6.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 20.1 21.0 24.6 24.1 25.9 25.8 25.4 29.8 32.6 31.9 31.0 30.3 32.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 7,977 8,395 9,017 9,344 9,775 10,509 11,283 12,192 12,840 13,655 14,051 15,035 16,217 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 16.1 17.8 17.7 18.9 19.8 17.8 19.0 21.0 23.1 23.3 24.4 27.9 30.5 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.7 LPGDP per capita ($) 1,273 1,367 1,319 1,373 1,397 1,219 1,270 1,361 1,459 1,430 1,460 1,622 1,725 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 1,700 2,004 2,203 2,459 2,670 2,869 3,137 3,617 3,794 4,048 na na naLending/GDP (%) 21.3 23.9 24.4 26.3 27.3 27.3 27.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 16.6 14.5 15.9 15.8 18.9 20.1 21.2 22.5 23.8 24.1 20.0 17.5 20.8 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.2 3.4 1.4 0.7 -1.1 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.5 1.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 4.3 2.7 1.1 -0.1 -0.8 1.0 2.9 -0.8 1.1 0.6 2.5 1.9 1.7 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.9 -4.9 -4.2 -4.3 -3.9 -3.7 -3.3 -3.0 -3.7 -3.9 -6.4 -4.9 -3.9 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -3.2 -3.7 -3.0 -3.1 -2.6 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 -1.7 -1.9 -4.3 -2.7 -1.8 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 28.5 32.9 34.5 36.9 42.4 44.5 47.5 61.1 63.5 64.8 65.8 66.8 66.6 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 2 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.5 3.0 4.3 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 4 4.4 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.0 5.2 5.5 6.0 7.1 8.1 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -2.4 -3.0 -3.5 -3.6 -3.5 -2.9 -2.8 -3.5 -4.0 -3.8 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -15.0 -16.6 -19.6 -19.2 -17.6 -16.4 -14.7 -16.9 -17.5 -16.4 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.6 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5 -2.0 -1.8 -2.7 -3.6 -3.6 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -6.5 -8.8 -8.3 -7.0 -5.7 -4.2 -7.3 -8.8 -7.8 -11.0 -12.8 -11.7 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.3 2.4 3.4 3.7 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1.9 -4.9 -7.5 -6.8 -5.1 -3.6 -2.9 -4.9 -5.4 -4.1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 12 22 -1 4 5 -10 15 -8 23 42 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 2 22 9 5 0 -13 5 10 18 15 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 12 13 16 na na naImport cover (months of imports) 34 28 25 25 23 26 20 23 23 23 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 15 19 16 19 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 24 28 36 35 41 48 53 71 81 69 77 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 197 211 275 274 318 364 377 601 613 373 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 4 6 8 7 6 5 8 8 9 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 32 29 42 61 55 48 39 67 59 47 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 5 5 8 12 12 10 11 14 13 13 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 16 15 14 16 14 16 15 27 27 22 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 11.4 7.5 6.2 8.0 11.1 19.0 14.3 9.3 14.1 8.2 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 657 662 660Exchange rate ($) annual average 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 555 586 575 538 531Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




79

Serbia 59 SRB 942 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 81: Serbia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB+/BB+ EODB Rank: 44 (48) - Strong Corruption Rank: 94 (91) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 35 (34) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 0.7 2.0 -0.7 2.9 -1.6 1.8 3.3 2.1 4.5 4.2 -1.0 5.0 4.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 17.8 18.4 19.2 17.3 16.7 18.7 18.1 19.6 22.7 25.1 23.2 23.9 24.2 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 20.0 23.6 24.6 23.0 19.9 18.2 15.9 14.1 13.3 10.9 13.3 13.0 12.7 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 3,253 3,615 3,813 4,124 4,163 4,315 4,528 4,761 5,073 5,418 5,464 5,872 6,307 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 41 49 43 48 47 40 41 44 51 51 53 60 65 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 LPGDP per capita ($) 5,678 6,815 6,017 6,757 6,604 5,589 5,765 6,293 7,252 7,392 7,636 8,748 9,462 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 1,534 1,621 1,775 1,689 1,697 1,754 1,851 1,918 2,100 2,277 2,504 na naLending/GDP (%) 47.2 44.8 46.5 40.9 40.8 40.6 40.9 40.3 41.4 42.0 45.8 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 11.6 10.1 8.2 11.4 10.9 15.2 15.2 14.3 17.8 18.2 18.9 18.3 18.7 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 6.1 11.1 7.3 7.7 2.1 1.4 1.1 3.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.4 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 10.2 7.0 12.2 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 3.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.3 2.4 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.5 -3.9 -6.4 -5.0 -5.8 -3.4 -1.1 1.4 0.8 0.0 -7.3 -4.6 -1.0 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -2.4 -2.7 -4.6 -2.7 -3.1 -0.4 1.8 3.9 3.0 2.0 -5.3 -2.7 0.9 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 41.2 43.9 54.4 57.5 67.5 71.2 68.8 58.6 54.4 52.8 58.4 59.0 56.4 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 8 10 12 11 15 15 13 15 17 18 20 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 16 17 20 19 21 20 18 19 22 26 27 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -7 -8 -8 -6 -6 -5 -4 -6 -7 -7 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -17 -16 -17 -12 -12 -12 -11 -13 -15 -14 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -4 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -6 -8 -11 -6 -6 -3 -3 -5 -5 -7 -4 -6 -5 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 2 5 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5 10 3 4 4 6 6 7 8 8 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 2 -8 -1 -2 2 3 1 3 1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 17 20 -4 29 1 -10 11 12 10 7 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 4 19 -5 9 -1 -11 6 17 15 4 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 13 15 14 15 11 11 10 11 12 13 14 na naImport cover (months of imports) 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 20 22 23 27 25 25 23 25 22 18 22 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 48 44 52 56 53 63 57 56 44 34 41 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 203 183 198 186 169 187 158 149 120 90 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 8 9 7 8 6 5 7 8 7 8 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 19 19 15 17 12 13 16 18 13 16 18 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 81 78 59 55 39 40 44 49 37 42 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 63 61 49 55 50 50 65 73 56 61 65 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 4 5 6 8 8 4 6 5 6 7 6 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 10 11 14 17 18 11 15 11 11 14 11 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 44 44 53 57 56 32 40 30 31 37 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 34 35 44 57 73 40 59 45 48 54 39 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 11.5 9.8 11.3 9.5 8.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.3 1.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.9 10.3 9.4 4.6 8.7 7.2 9.9 3.6 14.5 8.4 18.1 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 104 102 113 113 117 121 123 122 118 118 118 119 120Exchange rate ($) annual average 79 73 88 85 88 109 111 108 100 105 103 97 97Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - B1 B1 B1 B1 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB BB BB+ BB+ BB+ naFitch BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ BB- BB BB BB+ BB+ BB+ naNote: 2021-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




80

Seychelles 60 SYC 718 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 82: Seychelles key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) -/NR/B EODB Rank: 100 (96) - Middle Corruption Rank: 27 (27) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 5.9 5.4 3.7 6.0 4.5 4.9 4.4 5.0 1.3 1.9 -13.4 1.8 4.3 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 36.6 35.4 38.1 38.5 37.7 33.8 30.2 28.9 26.7 26.4 22.4 32.8 30.7 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 11.7 12.6 14.5 16.0 17.1 18.3 19.0 20.9 21.5 22.2 19.9 21.5 23.0 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.0 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 LPGDP per capita ($) 10,805 11,647 12,000 14,762 14,701 14,786 15,199 16,181 16,143 16,389 11,639 9,666 10,240 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 4.3 4.6 5.1 6.0 6.7 8.2 9.9 na naLending/GDP (%) 24.4 23.3 21.4 21.3 25.2 25.3 27.0 28.9 31.3 37.1 49.7 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 17.2 12.4 17.0 26.5 14.6 15.2 9.6 8.8 8.3 9.4 -6.7 -4.1 -4.2 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) -2.4 2.6 7.1 4.3 1.4 4.0 -1.0 2.9 3.7 1.8 1.2 3.7 2.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 0.4 5.5 5.8 3.4 0.5 3.2 -0.2 3.5 3.4 1.7 3.8 1.5 3.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.5 3.4 2.9 0.4 3.7 1.9 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 -16.9 -13.0 -9.9 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 6.5 6.4 6.6 5.3 6.0 4.9 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.4 -14.1 -9.1 -6.1 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 82.2 82.5 80.1 68.2 72.7 67.1 69.1 62.1 59.1 57.7 98.4 110.4 108.5 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 1 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.4 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 -0.7 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -78 -74 -58 -26 -39 -37 -81 -49 -24 -46 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -19 -23 -21 -12 -23 -19 -21 -20 -18 -17 -29 -37 -35 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 21.1 19.6 23.2 11.6 16.0 13.4 10.2 12.2 7.4 7 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2 -3 2 0 -7 -5 -10 -8 -11 -10 na na naExports (% YoY, value) -9 129 -32 -12 -4 -14 2 22 29 -7 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 26 46 -26 -28 16 -9 68 -18 -16 26 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 na naImport cover (months of imports) 2.6 1.9 2.9 5.5 5.2 6.5 3.8 4.9 5.8 4.8 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 191 234 347 282 287 307 303 294 309 309 455 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 436 245 556 643 692 886 888 755 623 687 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 129 163 52 42 45 46 46 44 46 44 72 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 295 171 84 96 108 133 135 112 93 98 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 490 596 179 131 129 118 126 122 129 120 144 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na na 3.5 5.0 5.5 3.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 13.7 4.4 -2.3 25.8 26.6 2.9 12.1 16.4 7.7 13.7 29.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 16.0 17.2 17.6 16.0 16.9 14.8 14.7 15.4 16.5 15.7 20.1 27.9 28.2Exchange rate ($) annual average 12.1 12.4 13.7 12.1 12.7 13.3 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.0 17.6 22.7 22.7Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - - - - - - - - - naStandard & Poor's NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR naFitch B- B B B B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B B naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




81

Slovenia 61 SVN 961 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 83: Slovenia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) A3/AA-/A EODB Rank: 37 (40) - Strong Corruption Rank: 35 (35) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 82 (80) - Strong

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 1.3 0.9 -2.6 -1.0 2.8 2.2 3.2 4.8 4.4 3.2 -5.5 3.7 4.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 22.4 21.7 18.8 19.6 19.4 19.2 18.4 20.0 21.2 20.7 20.6 21.3 23.2 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.2 9.7 9.0 8.0 6.6 5.1 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.0 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 36.4 37.1 36.3 36.5 37.6 38.9 40.4 43.0 45.9 48.4 46.3 48.5 51.5 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 48.2 51.6 46.6 48.4 50.0 43.1 44.8 48.6 54.2 54.2 52.8 59.1 63.6 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 LPGDP per capita ($) 23,570 25,156 22,674 23,517 24,264 20,899 21,681 23,510 26,216 26,037 25,211 28,104 30,126 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 30.9 30.3 28.7 23.8 20.5 19.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.5 20.3 na naLending/GDP (%) 85.1 81.8 79.3 65.3 54.5 49.9 46.6 45.1 43.3 42.5 43.9 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 21.6 20.9 20.1 22.9 24.5 23.0 23.2 26.3 27.0 26.3 27.9 28.3 29.8 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 -0.1 0.8 1.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 1.9 2.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 -0.5 0.5 1.7 1.4 1.9 -1.1 1.7 1.3 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -5.6 -6.6 -4.0 -14.6 -5.5 -2.8 -1.9 -0.1 0.7 0.5 -8.5 -6.2 -4.2 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -4.5 -5.2 -2.6 -12.6 -2.7 -- 0.7 2.1 2.5 2.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.3 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 38.3 46.5 53.6 70.0 80.3 82.6 78.5 74.1 70.3 65.6 81.5 80.5 78.2 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 26 29 35 32 34 36 32 33 38 44 45 34 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 27 30 36 32 33 34 30 31 36 42 44 31 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -1 -1 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -2 -2 0 1 4 5 5 5 4 2 5 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0 0 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -1 -1 1 3 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 0 2 1 0 2 3 2 1 2 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 1 3 3 7 7 7 7 8 7 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 12 19 -7 6 6 -11 3 17 15 2 -25 na naImports (% YoY, value) 13 18 -10 4 2 -12 2 18 17 4 -30 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) na na na na na na na na na na 1.1 na naImport cover (months of imports) na na na na na na na na na na 0.4 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 56 54 56 57 57 50 47 52 48 49 56 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 116 104 121 117 115 117 104 107 89 91 106 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 192 155 175 167 160 157 142 135 109 110 166 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 13 12 15 10 9 8 10 11 11 12 14 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 26 23 33 20 18 19 21 22 20 23 26 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 43 35 47 28 25 26 29 28 24 27 40 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na 1,216 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 1.6 2.5 -0.9 -1.3 6.7 5.0 7.7 6.6 7.4 7.9 8.7 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.22 1.23


Moody's Aa2 A1 Baa2 Ba1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 A3 A3 naStandard & Poor's AA AA- A A- A- A- A A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- naFitch AA AA- A- BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ A- A- A- A A A na

Source: IMF, World Bank, UNCTAD, Transparency International, WJP, Bloomberg, Bank of Slovenia, FocusEconomics



82

South Africa 62 ZAF 199 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 84: South Africa key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba2/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 84 (82) - Middle Corruption Rank: 69 (70) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 59 (56) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.0 3.3 2.2 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.2 -7.0 3.1 2.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 19.5 19.7 20.0 21.2 20.5 20.9 19.2 18.8 17.9 17.6 12.4 14.3 15.9 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 24.9 24.8 24.9 24.7 25.1 25.4 26.7 27.5 27.1 28.7 29.2 29.7 30.8 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 2,748 3,024 3,254 3,540 3,805 4,050 4,359 4,654 4,874 5,078 4,974 5,324 5,649 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 375 417 396 367 351 318 296 349 368 351 302 330 344 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 51.3 52.1 52.9 53.8 54.6 55.4 56.3 57.1 57.9 58.8 59.6 60.5 61.5 LPGDP per capita ($) 7,312 7,997 7,488 6,824 6,430 5,732 5,267 6,120 6,354 5,978 5,067 5,444 5,600 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 1,933 2,044 2,233 2,381 2,552 2,764 2,904 3,052 3,204 3,389 3,447 na naLending/GDP (%) 70.4 67.6 68.6 67.3 67.1 68.2 66.6 65.6 65.7 66.7 69.3 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 18.0 17.5 14.8 15.4 15.4 16.3 16.3 16.3 14.4 14.6 14.6 13.9 14.4 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.3 5.0 5.6 5.8 6.1 4.6 6.3 5.3 4.6 4.1 3.3 4.3 4.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.5 6.2 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.3 6.7 4.7 4.9 3.7 3.2 4.9 4.5 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -5.0 -4.1 -4.4 -4.3 -4.3 -4.8 -4.1 -4.4 -4.1 -5.3 -12.2 -10.6 -8.3 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -2.6 -1.5 -1.7 -1.4 -1.3 -1.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 -1.3 -7.7 -5.7 -2.9 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 34.7 38.2 41.0 44.1 47.0 49.3 51.5 53.0 56.7 62.2 77.1 80.8 84.4 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 54 91 109 100 96 91 81 75 89 94 90 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 71 88 109 110 110 106 91 79 88 99 93 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 3 0 -11 -14 -15 -9 -5 1 -4 -3 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -6 -9 -20 -21 -18 -15 -9 -9 -13 -11 7 -1 -5 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -2 -2 -5 -6 -5 -5 -3 -3 -4 -3 2 0 -2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 4 4 2 2 -2 -4 -2 -5 1 2 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 -1 -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -4 -3 -3 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 68 19 -9 -4 -5 -11 -8 19 5 -5 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 24 24 1 -1 -3 -14 -12 11 12 -5 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 38.2 42.6 44.0 44.9 44.3 41.6 42.6 45.5 46.5 48.9 47.4 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5.2 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.5 6.4 6.2 5.7 6.3 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 111 118 142 137 145 124 143 173 173 185 157 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 30 28 36 37 41 39 48 50 47 53 52 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 122 109 143 143 159 152 191 194 183 206 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 22 21 28 27 35 29 30 33 37 34 28 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 6 5 7 7 10 9 10 9 10 10 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 24 19 28 28 38 36 40 37 39 38 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 57 48 63 61 79 70 70 72 79 70 59 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 6 6 10 13 8 22 14 15 29 17 17 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 3 4 2 7 5 4 8 5 6 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 7 6 10 14 9 26 19 16 31 19 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 17 15 24 29 19 52 33 32 62 34 36 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.8 6.3 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.5 3.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 6.9 8.3 5.2 5.8 7.2 10.5 6.1 6.4 5.6 6.1 9.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 9.7 10.1 10.6 12.8 14.4 14.2 16.3 15.0 15.6 16.2 18.8 19.9 20.4Exchange rate ($) annual average 7.3 7.3 8.2 9.7 10.8 12.8 14.7 13.3 13.2 14.5 16.5 16.2 16.4Credit rating history Latest

Moody's A3 A3 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa3 *- Baa3 Baa3 Ba2 Ba2 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BBB- BB BB BB BB- BB- naFitch BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BB+ BB+ BB+ BB- BB- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Sri Lanka 63 LKA 524 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 85: Sri Lanka key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Caa1/CCC+/CCC EODB Rank: 99 (100) - Middle Corruption Rank: 94 (93) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 39 (39) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.0 8.4 9.1 3.4 5.0 5.0 4.5 3.6 3.3 2.3 -3.6 4.0 4.1 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 30.4 33.4 39.1 33.2 32.3 31.2 27.9 31.6 30.6 27.4 26.0 27.3 27.3 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 5.0 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.8 5.6 5.5 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 6,414 7,219 8,732 9,592 10,361 10,951 11,996 13,328 14,291 15,013 14,973 16,196 17,653 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 56.7 65.3 68.4 74.3 79.3 80.6 82.4 87.4 87.9 84.0 80.7 84.5 88.3 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.2 LPGDP per capita ($) 2,800 3,199 3,348 3,607 3,817 3,842 3,886 4,077 4,057 3,852 3,679 3,830 3,977 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 1,491 2,006 2,358 2,534 2,753 3,442 4,186 4,799 5,561 5,798 6,171 na naLending/GDP (%) 23.2 27.8 27.0 26.4 26.6 31.4 34.9 36.0 38.9 38.6 41.2 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 28.5 26.3 33.2 29.8 29.8 28.8 25.7 29.0 27.4 25.2 24.6 25.0 25.1 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 6.3 6.7 7.5 6.9 2.8 2.2 4.0 6.6 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.4 5.1 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.8 4.9 9.3 4.6 1.4 4.6 4.5 7.1 2.8 4.8 4.2 4.6 5.5 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -7.0 -6.2 -5.6 -5.2 -6.2 -7.0 -5.3 -5.5 -5.3 -8.2 -11.9 -10.5 -9.7 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -1.5 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6 -2.0 -2.2 -0.2 0.0 0.6 -2.2 -5.3 -4.0 -2.7 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 71.6 71.1 69.6 71.8 72.2 78.5 79.0 77.9 84.2 86.8 100.1 105.4 107.7 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 8 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 11 12 10 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 8 11 17 16 18 19 15 19 21 22 22 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -1 -6 -6 -7 -8 -5 -9 -10 -11 -12 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -2 -9 -8 -9 -10 -7 -11 -11 -12 -14 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -2 -7 -6 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -1 -6 -5 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 21 17 -10 11 -3 -11 3 11 4 -12 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 31 63 -8 13 7 -21 27 8 7 -2 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 6.7 6.2 6.4 6.6 7.3 6.5 5.2 7.0 6.1 6.7 5.3 na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.7 4.4 4.8 4.4 4.6 5.2 3.2 4.1 3.3 3.7 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 21 0 37 40 43 45 46 52 52 56 52 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 37 0 54 54 54 56 56 59 59 67 64 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 220 0 368 356 394 460 462 462 450 548 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 1 4 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 1 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 6 33 64 60 67 78 73 70 69 81 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 9 60 101 102 99 116 142 111 131 123 142 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 1 1 2 2 6 4 3 4 7 6 8 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 2 2 3 3 8 4 4 5 8 7 10 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 15 12 21 19 59 36 33 38 64 61 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 21 21 33 32 88 54 64 60 121 93 147 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 7.3 7.0 7.5 6.5 6.5 6.0 7.0 7.3 8.0 7.0 4.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 18.0 20.9 18.3 18.0 13.1 17.2 18.9 17.5 13.5 7.6 22.9 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 150 154 164 172 174 151 161 172 192 200 212 236 248Exchange rate ($) annual average 113 111 128 129 131 136 146 152 163 179 186 192 200Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B1 B2 B2 Caa1 Caa1 naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B B CCC+ CCC+ naFitch B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B B CCC CCC naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Taiwan 64 TWN 528 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 86: Taiwan key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa3/AAu/AA- EODB Rank: 15 (13) - Strong Corruption Rank: 28 (28) - Strong RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 10.2 3.7 2.2 2.5 4.7 1.5 2.2 3.3 2.8 3.0 3.1 4.7 3.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 25.1 23.6 22.7 22.5 22.6 21.7 21.6 21.0 22.2 23.6 23.7 23.1 23.1 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 5.2 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.8 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 14,060 14,262 14,678 15,271 16,258 17,055 17,555 17,983 18,375 18,933 19,774 21,049 21,849 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 444 484 496 513 535 535 543 591 609 612 669 759 811 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.6 LPGDP per capita ($) 19,181 20,839 21,256 21,945 22,844 22,753 23,071 25,062 25,826 25,936 28,306 32,123 34,284 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 18,326 19,423 20,442 21,526 22,754 23,784 24,797 26,304 27,732 29,334 0 na naLending/GDP (%) 130 136 139 141 140 139 141 146 151 155 0.0 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 34.1 32.0 32.2 33.3 34.8 36.6 36.1 36.1 35.1 35.8 39.9 40.8 40.8 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.3 -0.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 0.5 -0.2 0.9 1.2 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 1.2 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.7 1.2 -0.1 1.1 0.1 0.9 1.2 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -5.1 -4.0 -4.3 -3.2 -2.7 -1.8 -2.2 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 -4.3 -2.8 -1.6 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 36.9 38.3 39.2 38.9 37.5 35.9 35.4 34.5 33.9 32.7 33.7 32.5 31.0 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 205 277 312 305 311 319 284 279 315 334 329 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 177 256 287 276 277 281 236 229 257 285 286 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 22 25 29 33 38 48 50 58 49 44 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 8 7 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 37 38 43 50 61 73 71 83 71 65 94 110 117 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 8 8 9 10 11 14 13 14 12 11 14 14 14 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) -9 -15 -10 -11 -10 -12 -9 -8 -11 -4 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 6 5 7 8 9 11 12 13 10 10 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 35 13 -2 2 3 -11 -2 13 6 -1 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 44 12 -4 0 1 -16 -3 12 11 0 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 382 386 403 417 419 426 434 452 462 478 529.9 na naImport cover (months of imports) 17.9 16.1 17.5 18.0 17.9 21.6 22.7 21.1 19.5 20.1 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 97 105 101 150 145 119 128 157 175 157 158 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 22 22 20 29 27 22 24 27 29 26 24 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 35 34 33 48 45 42 46 50 52 48 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 93 81 81 113 115 89 99 128 127 116 129 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 21 17 16 22 22 17 18 22 21 19 19 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 33 26 26 36 36 31 35 41 38 35 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 24 21 20 27 28 21 23 28 27 24 24 na naTotal debt service ($bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service (% of exports) na na na na na na na na na na na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 5.4 4.8 3.5 5.8 6.1 5.8 3.6 3.6 2.7 4.5 9.4 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 42.0 41.0 38.1 39.5 40.3 35.4 35.8 34.4 35.6 34.6 33.8 34.1 33.5Exchange rate ($) annual average 31.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.4 31.9 32.3 30.4 30.2 30.9 29.6 27.7 27.0Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 Aa3 naStandard & Poor's AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA-u AA-u AA-u AA-u AA-u AAu naFitch A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




85

Tajikistan 65 TJK 923 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 87: Tajikistan key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B-/- EODB Rank: 106 (126) - Middle Corruption Rank: 149 (153) - Weak RenCap Legal score: -

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 6.7 6.0 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 4.5 6.0 4.5 NGDP_RPCHIndustrial production (%YoY) 9.7 5.9 10.4 3.9 5.1 11.2 16.0 21.3 11.8 13.6 10.0 na na NID_NGDPNominal GDP (TJS bn) 24.7 30.1 36.2 40.5 45.6 48.4 54.5 61.1 68.8 77.4 82.0 90.7 100.1 LURNominal GDP ($bn) 5.6 6.5 7.6 8.5 9.2 7.9 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.1 8.0 8.2 9 NGDPPopulation (mn) 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.8 NGDPDGDP per capita ($) 738 835 950 1,040 1,105 919 796 801 826 873 834 851 884 LPGross national saving (% of GDP) 8 15 9 7 13 12 16 27 16 18 17 21 21 NGDPDPCStock of bank credit to corp/households (TJSbn) 4 5 5 8 10 12 10 8 9 10 11 na naStock of bank credit to corp/households (% of GDP)14.9 15.4 14.9 18.6 21.4 24.7 17.6 13.8 12.6 12.5 13.3 na naDeposits (TJSbn) 3.4 4.4 4.7 5.6 6.6 9.5 9.3 9.1 9.7 8.8 11.0 na na NGSD_NGDPLoan-to-deposit ratio (%) 108.9 105.0 113.1 133.7 147.3 125.9 103.1 93.0 89.0 110.3 98.8 na naPrices PCPIPCHCPI (average % YoY) 6.5 12.4 5.8 5.0 6.1 5.8 5.9 7.3 3.8 7.8 8.6 8.0 6.5 PCPIEPCHCPI (end-year % YoY) 9.8 9.3 6.4 3.7 7.4 5.1 6.1 6.7 5.4 8.1 9.4 7.0 6.5Nominal wages (monthly), TJS 355 446 556 698 884 879 960 1,148 1,234 1,352 1,408 na na GGXCNL_NGDPWage rates (% YoY, nominal) 23.3 25.8 24.5 25.6 26.7 -0.5 9.2 19.5 7.5 9.6 4.1 na na GGXONLB_NGDPFiscal balance GGXWDG_NGDPConsolidated government balance (% of GDP) -3.0 -2.1 0.6 -0.9 -0.1 -2.0 -9.0 -6.0 -2.8 -2.1 -6.0 -4.4 -2.6Total public debt (% of GDP) 1 37 35 32 29 28 35 42 50 48 43 48 49 48 TXG_FOB_USDExternal balance 3 TMG_CIF_USDMerchandise exports ($bn) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.7 na naMerchandise imports ($bn) 2.9 3.6 4.4 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.7 na naTrade balance ($bn) -2.5 -3.0 -3.6 -4.0 -3.1 -2.3 -1.9 -1.5 -1.9 -1.9 -1.0 na na BCATrade balance (% of GDP) -44 -46 -47 -47 -33 -29 -27 -21 -25 -24 -13 na na BCA_NGDPDCurrent account balance ($bn) -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4Current account balance (% of GDP) -10.3 -6.3 -9.0 -10.4 -3.4 -6.1 -4.2 2.2 -5.0 -2.3 -7.2 -4.5 -4.5Gross FDI ($bn) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 na naGross FDI (% of GDP) 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.9 7.3 5.0 4.3 4.8 4.5 1.3 na naCurrent account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -7.5 -3.3 -5.6 -6.6 1.5 1.2 0.8 6.5 -0.3 2.2 -5.9 na naExports (% YoY) 8.8 29.3 39.3 -30.4 -8.2 8.6 16.7 30.7 0.1 14.5 69.5 na naImports (% YoY) 15.3 23.0 22.2 3.5 -21.1 -20.5 -10.8 -6.4 15.6 5.7 -7.3 na naInternational reserves ($bn) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 na naImport cover (months of imports) 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 3.1 6.5 5.6 6.0 7.7 na naDebt indicatorsGross external debt ($bn) 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.5 na naGross external debt (% of GDP) 60 59 56 56 52 62 71 80 79 81 83 na naGross external debt (% of exports) 746 650 518 825 915 852 737 654 682 654 386 na naCurrency and monetary policyBroad money supply (% YoY) year-end 18.6 33.1 19.6 19.7 7.1 18.7 37.1 21.8 5.1 16.9 10.5 na naRefinancing rate (%) year-end 8.25 9.80 6.50 5.50 8.00 8.00 11.00 16.00 14.00 12.25 10.75 na naExchange rate (TJS/$) year-end 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.3 7.1 7.9 8.8 9.4 9.7 11.3 na naExchange rate (TJS/$) annual average 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.9 6.2 7.8 8.6 9.2 9.5 10.3 11.0 11.5Exchange rate (TJS/EUR) year-end 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.4 7.6 8.3 10.6 10.8 10.9 13.8 na naExchange rate (TJS/EUR) annual avg 5.8 6.4 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 8.7 9.7 10.8 10.7 11.8 13.6 14.3Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - B3 B3 B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - B- B- B- B- B- naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - na

Source: Agency of statistics under president of the Republic of Tajikistan, NBT, MinFin, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Tanzania 66 TZA 738 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 88: Tanzania key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2u/-/- EODB Rank: 141 (144) - Weak Corruption Rank: 94 (96) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 27 (26) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 6.4 7.9 5.1 6.8 6.7 6.2 6.9 6.8 7.0 6.3 5.0 5.5 5.8 NGDP_RPCHNominal GDP (TZSbn) (Rebased from 2012 onwards)43,571 52,378 62,310 72,977 82,603 94,349 108,262 118,744 129,015 139,894 146,279 155,878 169,793 NID_NGDPNominal GDP (€bn) 22.8 23.7 30.5 34.0 36.2 39.8 45.1 46.4 47.0 54.3 55.3 54.2 56.2 LURNominal GDP (US$bn) 30.2 33.0 39.3 45.1 49.6 46.3 49.5 53.1 55.3 60.7 63.3 66.1 69.4 NGDPPopulation (m) 42.8 43.9 45.7 47.1 48.5 50.0 51.5 53.1 54.7 56.3 58.0 59.7 61.5 NGDPDGDP per capita (US$) 705 752 859 959 1,023 926 961 1,000 1,012 1,078 1,091 1,106 1,128 LPGross national saving (% of GDP) 21.8 21.7 19.5 14.9 21.9 25.4 30.1 30.5 31.3 32.9 34.9 34.2 35.0 NGDPDPCStock of bank credit to corporate/household sector (TZSbn)5,798 7,399 8,722 10,153 12,123 15,130 16,219 16,495 17,303 19,224 20,473 22,111 24,322Stock of bank credit to corporate/household sector (% of GDP)13.3 14.1 14.0 13.9 14.7 16.0 15.0 13.9 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.3Loan to deposit ratio 62.3 67.1 68.6 71.8 74.3 78.5 86.3 84.9 85.0 86.0 86.0 87.0 87.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average %YoY) 7.2 12.7 16.0 7.9 6.1 5.6 5.0 5.3 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.9 PCPIPCHCPI (end-year %YoY) 5.6 19.8 12.1 5.6 4.8 6.8 5.0 4.0 3.3 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.9 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)General government budget balance* -4.8 -3.6 -4.1 -3.8 -2.9 -3.2 -2.1 -1.2 -1.9 -1.7 -1.9 -2.8 -2.7 GGXCNL_NGDPTotal public debt 27.2 27.8 29.2 31.4 34.6 37.1 37.0 37.7 38.7 38.2 38.5 39.2 39.0 GGXONLB_NGDPExternal balance GGXWDG_NGDPExports (US$bn) 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7Imports (US$bn) 7 10 10 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 TXG_FOB_USDTrade balance (US$bn) -3 -5 -4 -6 -6 -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -3 TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance (% of GDP) -9 -14 -11 -13 -12 -11 -7 -6 -6 -6 -5 -5 -5Current account balance (US$bn) -2 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3Current account balance (% of GDP) -8 -11 -10 -11 -10 -10 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 BCANet FDI (US$bn) 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI (% of GDP) 6 4 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 2Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2 -7 -6 -6 -6 -5 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2Exports (%YoY, value) 31 18 16 -11 -2 -6 1 -7 4 8 10 5 11Imports (%YoY, value) 23 37 5 7 -1 -10 -14 -11 8 6 3 5 5Gross official reserves (US$bn) 3.9 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.5 3.8Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 6.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.2 6.3 8.3 7.3 6.2 5.5 4.5 4.6Debt indicatorsGross external debt (US$bn) 10 10 10 12 13 13 15 16 17 17 18 18 18Gross external debt (% of GDP) 32 31 25 27 27 29 31 29 29 27 27 27 26Gross external debt (% of exports) 223 203 163 227 260 274 311 355 351 334 314 308 273Total debt service (US$bn) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1Total debt service (% of GDP) 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total debt service (% of exports) 1 2 4 4 3 4 8 9 10 12 12 12 12Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply, M2 (%YoY) 21.8 15.0 16.0 10.9 17.0 10.0 12.0 9.0 11.0 14.0 10.0 12.0 14.0Credit to the private sector (%YoY) 20.6 27.6 17.9 15.3 19.4 24.8 7.2 1.7 4.9 11.1 6.5 8.0 10.03-month interest rate (t-bill YE %) 5.2 12.6 11.9 13.6 13.2 10.8 7.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 2.4 3.5 4.53-month interest rate spread over $-Libor (ppt) 4.5 11.5 11.4 13.2 13.0 10.7 7.1 5.1 7.0 9.0 2.7 3.8 4.75Y yield (% YE) 11.6 13.2 14.9 15.4 14.6 17.5 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.4 11.5 12.0 12.0Exchange rate (TZS/EUR) year-end 1,987 2,050 2,091 2,192 2,013 2,243 2,300 2,641 2,657 2,535 2,727 2,928 3,117Exchange rate (TZS/EUR) annual average 1,914 2,209 2,040 2,148 2,280 2,371 2,399 2,561 2,746 2,575 2,644 2,879 3,022Exchange rate (TZS/$) year-end 1,484 1,582 1,585 1,590 1,733 2,149 2,181 2,295 2,367 2,299 2,319 2,400 2,494Exchange rate (TZS/$) annual average 1,442 1,586 1,587 1,617 1,664 2,039 2,187 2,238 2,331 2,305 2,311 2,360 2,447


Moody's - - - - - - - - B1 B1 B2u B2u naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Thailand 67 THA 578 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 89: Thailand key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Baa1/BBB+/BBB+ EODB Rank: 21 (27) - Strong Corruption Rank: 104 (101) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 36 (35) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.5 0.8 7.2 2.7 1.0 3.1 3.4 4.2 4.2 2.3 -6.1 2.6 5.6 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 25.4 26.8 28.0 27.5 23.9 22.4 21.1 22.9 25.2 23.7 23.9 24.4 23.8 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 10,808 11,307 12,357 12,915 13,230 13,743 14,590 15,489 16,369 16,896 15,703 16,245 17,244 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 341 371 398 420 407 401 413 457 506 544 502 539 578 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 67.2 67.5 67.8 68.1 68.4 68.7 69.0 69.2 69.4 69.6 69.8 70.0 70.1 LPGDP per capita ($) 5,074 5,494 5,863 6,169 5,952 5,838 5,995 6,596 7,294 7,815 7,190 7,702 8,247 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 9,804 11,471 13,147 14,406 15,084 15,926 16,598 17,363 18,364 18,799 19,637 na naLending/GDP (%) 90.7 101 106 112 114 116 114 112 112 111 125.1 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 28.7 29.3 26.8 25.4 26.8 29.3 31.6 32.6 30.8 30.8 27.2 24.9 26.5 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.3 3.8 3.0 2.2 1.9 -0.9 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 -0.8 1.3 1.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.1 3.5 3.6 1.7 0.6 -0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.9 -0.3 1.0 1.1 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.1 0.1 -0.9 0.5 -0.8 0.1 0.6 -0.4 0.1 -0.8 -4.7 -4.9 -1.5 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -0.5 0.9 -- 1.3 -0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.6 -0.3 -4.2 -4.4 -0.9 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 39.8 39.1 41.9 42.2 43.3 42.6 41.7 41.8 42.0 41.0 49.6 55.9 54.7 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 152 193 220 227 224 225 211 214 236 251 245 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 135 185 229 250 250 228 202 195 224 249 239 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 8 -9 -23 -25 -3 9 19 12 1 6 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 2 -2 -6 -6 -1 2 5 3 0 1 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 11 9 -5 -9 12 28 43 44 28 38 17 2 15 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 3 3 -1 -2 3 7 11 10 6 7 3 0 3 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 7 -5 -1 4 -1 4 -11 -10 -8 -8 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2 -1 0 1 0 1 -3 -2 -2 -1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 5 1 -2 -1 3 8 8 7 4 6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 27 14 3 -1 0 -6 1 10 6 -2 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 37 24 9 0 -9 -11 -3 15 11 -4 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 168 167 173 161 151 151 166 196 199 217 248.7 na naImport cover (months of imports) 10.9 8.8 8.3 7.8 8.0 9.0 10.2 10.5 9.6 10.9 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 101 104 131 142 142 131 132 155 162 172 172 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 29 28 33 34 35 33 32 34 32 32 34 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 52 47 58 63 63 62 62 66 65 70 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 46 38 46 45 46 43 46 59 54 51 52 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 14 10 12 11 11 11 11 13 11 9 10 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 24 17 20 20 20 21 21 25 21 21 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 28 23 27 28 30 29 28 30 27 23 21 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 11 10 15 14 26 19 14 15 19 27 16 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3 3 4 3 6 5 3 3 4 5 3 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 6 5 7 6 11 9 7 6 7 11 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 7 6 9 9 17 12 9 8 9 12 7 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 2.0 3.3 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 10.9 15.1 10.4 7.3 4.6 4.4 4.2 5.0 4.7 3.6 10.1 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 42.1 42.4 40.0 40.8 43.1 38.0 39.1 38.3 38.2 34.8 35.8 37.1 37.1Exchange rate ($) annual average 31.7 30.5 31.1 30.7 32.5 34.3 35.3 33.9 32.3 31.1 31.3 30.2 29.8Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 naStandard & Poor's BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naFitch BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




88

Togo 68 TGO 742 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 90: Togo key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B/- EODB Rank: 97 (137) - Middle Corruption Rank: 134 (130) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 22 (23) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 4.3 5.0 5.5 0.7 3.5 4.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 15.7 19.3 17.3 20.8 20.6 23.2 21.4 18.3 18.1 20.5 20.9 23.1 23.5 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 2,289 2,462 2,668 2,880 3,048 3,335 3,574 3,714 3,951 4,231 4,308 4,580 4,906 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 4.6 5.2 5.2 5.8 6.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 7.1 7.2 7.5 8.6 9.4 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 LPGDP per capita ($) 721 792 772 838 865 770 803 830 902 893 905 1,016 1,076 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 369 513 605 810 804 993 1,094 1,099 1,086 1,131 na na naLending/GDP (%) 16.1 20.8 22.7 28.1 26.4 29.8 30.6 29.6 27.5 26.7 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 12.0 14.2 12.4 11.8 13.8 15.6 14.7 17.1 16.2 18.0 17.1 19.7 20.1 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 0.2 3.6 2.6 1.8 0.2 1.8 0.9 -0.2 0.9 0.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 1.6 1.5 2.9 -0.5 1.8 1.6 0.4 -0.7 2.0 -0.3 3.5 1.7 2.3 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -1.7 -4.6 -4.8 -3.9 -5.1 -6.5 -7.1 -0.2 -0.6 1.6 -6.1 -6.1 -4.1 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -1.0 -2.4 -4.1 -3.0 -4.0 -4.8 -5.3 1.1 1.2 3.6 -3.2 -3.7 -1.9 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 34.3 35.1 35.6 42.4 46.5 53.4 60.3 57.0 57.3 53.6 57.6 60.0 59.9 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -13 -17 -14 -20 -17 -19 -17 -12 -12 -13 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -4 -5 -5 -9 -7 -8 -7 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 -7 -6 4 -5 -2 -5 2 -4 -8 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -3 -12 -11 -5 -12 -9 -12 1 -5 -10 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 12 34 12 16 -26 -17 7 2 18 -11 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 1 38 1 33 -18 -8 -1 -12 17 -3 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 12 13 16 na na naImport cover (months of imports) 109 81 79 60 69 71 59 85 84 103 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 40 21 22 21 16 28 30 38 35 39 50 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 251 113 105 93 104 199 213 284 242 309 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 8 8 7 7 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 27 20 20 17 30 33 26 57 54 56 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 3 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 5 2 2 4 6 8 11 11 13 13 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 14.7 17.3 10.1 16.9 3.6 20.8 12.4 10.0 9.3 4.5 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 656 657 653 651Exchange rate ($) annual average 494 471 510 494 494 591 593 581 555 586 575 531 524Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - - - - - - B3 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - B B B naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




89

Tunisia 69 TUN 744 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 91: Tunisia key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/NR/B EODB Rank: 78 (80) - Middle Corruption Rank: 69 (74) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 44 (43) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 3.5 -1.9 4.1 2.8 2.9 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.7 1.0 -8.8 3.8 2.4 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 25.6 23.1 24.4 22.7 23.2 20.0 18.4 19.4 21.1 17.2 7.8 10.5 11.4 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 13.0 18.9 16.7 15.3 15.0 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 14.9 na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 63 64 70 75 81 85 90 96 106 115 111 122 133 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 44.1 45.8 45.0 46.2 47.6 43.2 41.8 39.6 40.1 39.2 39.6 44.3 46.5 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 LPGDP per capita ($) 4,140 4,257 4,138 4,199 4,274 3,830 3,666 3,436 3,443 3,324 3,323 3,683 3,836 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 35 39 43 46 51 54 59 66 72 73 79 na naLending/GDP (%) 54.8 60.9 60.8 61.0 63.1 63.8 66.1 68.9 67.6 63.4 70.7 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 20.0 14.6 15.3 13.1 13.3 10.3 9.1 9.1 10.0 8.8 1.0 0.9 1.9 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 4.4 3.2 4.6 5.3 4.6 4.4 3.6 5.3 7.3 6.7 5.7 5.8 6.3 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.5 3.4 5.4 5.2 4.4 3.8 4.2 6.2 7.5 6.1 5.5 6.0 6.4 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -0.5 -3.4 -5.1 -7.4 -3.3 -5.2 -6.2 -6.0 -4.5 -3.9 -10.6 -9.3 -6.8 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 1.3 -1.5 -3.3 -5.5 -1.4 -3.3 -4.0 -3.6 -1.9 -1.1 -7.2 -5.9 -3.0 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 39.2 43.1 47.7 46.8 51.5 55.4 62.3 70.9 77.5 71.8 87.6 91.2 93.9 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 14 16 17 16 16 16 13 13 14 16 15 14 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 19 22 23 24 24 25 20 19 21 23 22 18 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -6 -6 -8 -7 -9 -7 -6 -6 -7 -7 -5 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -14 -14 -17 -16 -19 -16 -15 -16 -18 -18 -11 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -6 -8 -9 -10 -10 -10 -9 -10 -11 -8 -7 -10 -9 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 3 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -2 -6 -6 -7 -8 -7 -8 -8 -9 -6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 13 8 -5 0 -2 -16 -4 10 9 -2 -10 na naImports (% YoY, value) 14 7 2 -1 5 -18 -7 9 10 -2 -17 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 9 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 8 9 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 4 6 na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 22 22 25 27 28 29 29 33 35 38 39 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 50 49 56 58 58 66 69 84 87 96 99 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 139 131 156 164 173 213 224 235 226 247 284 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 11 11 14 14 14 15 16 19 20 24 25 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 31 29 38 40 43 49 52 52 52 60 72 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 53 66 75 90 95 90 114 126 150 121 105 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 5 6 6 5 4 5 5 8 7 8 9 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 15 16 16 15 12 15 16 21 18 20 27 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 25 36 31 34 27 27 34 52 52 41 40 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 4.5 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.8 4.3 4.3 5.0 6.8 7.8 6.3 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 12.2 9.1 8.5 6.1 8.7 5.1 8.0 11.1 6.5 11.3 9.7 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.90 1.96 2.01 2.16 2.26 2.18 2.38 2.73 3.13 3.29 3.22 3.40 3.55Exchange rate ($) annual average 1.43 1.41 1.56 1.62 1.70 1.96 2.15 2.42 2.65 2.93 2.81 2.76 2.86Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Baa2 Baa3 Baa3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 B1 B2 B2 B2 B3 naStandard & Poor's BBB BBB- BB - - - NR NR NR NR NR NR naFitch BBB BBB- BB+ BB- BB- BB- BB- B+ B+ B+ B B naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




90

Turkey 70 TUR 186 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 92: Turkey key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2/B+u/BB- EODB Rank: 33 (43) - Strong Corruption Rank: 86 (91) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 18 (17) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 8.4 11.2 4.8 8.5 4.9 6.1 3.3 7.5 3.0 0.9 1.8 6.0 3.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 26.8 31.0 28.1 29.6 29.0 28.2 28.0 30.7 29.3 24.8 31.5 29.9 28.3 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 11.1 9.1 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.3 10.9 10.9 11.0 13.7 13.1 12.4 11.0 LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 1,168 1,405 1,581 1,823 2,055 2,351 2,627 3,134 3,758 4,320 5,044 6,026 6,892 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 777 839 880 958 939 864 869 859 780 761 720 795 868 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 73.7 74.7 75.6 76.7 77.7 78.7 79.8 80.8 82.0 83.2 84.2 85.2 86.2 LPGDP per capita ($) 10,533 11,221 11,638 12,489 12,079 10,974 10,891 10,629 9,507 9,151 8,548 9,327 10,076 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 486 649 771 1,034 1,225 1,472 1,715 2,066 2,375 2,670 3,579 na naLending/GDP (%) 41.6 46.2 48.7 56.7 59.6 62.6 65.3 65.9 63.2 61.8 71.0 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 21.8 23.0 23.4 23.9 24.9 25.2 25.0 26.0 27.7 26.0 26.7 26.6 26.3 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 8.6 6.5 8.9 7.5 8.9 7.7 7.8 11.1 16.3 15.2 12.3 13.6 11.8 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 6.4 10.4 6.2 7.4 8.2 8.8 8.5 11.9 20.3 11.8 14.6 12.5 11.5 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -3.4 -0.7 -1.8 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -2.3 -2.2 -3.7 -5.6 -5.4 -5.7 -6.1 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 0.1 1.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 -1.0 -0.9 -2.2 -3.8 -3.5 -3.3 -3.2 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 39.7 36.2 32.4 31.2 28.5 27.4 28.0 28.0 30.2 32.6 36.8 37.1 38.8 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 102 114 135 152 152 158 144 143 157 168 181 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 141 186 241 237 252 242 207 199 234 223 210 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -72 -106 -84 -100 -85 -63 -56 -77 -55 -30 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9 -13 -10 -10 -9 -7 -6 -9 -7 -4 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -45 -74 -48 -56 -39 -27 -27 -41 -22 7 -37 -27 -19 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -6 -9 -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 1 -5 -3 -2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 8 14 10 10 6 14 11 8 9 6 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -5 -7 -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 11 18 13 0 4 -9 -1 10 7 8 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 32 30 -2 6 -4 -14 -4 18 -5 -6 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 80.7 78.3 99.9 111 107 92.9 92.1 84.1 72.9 78.5 50.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 5.2 3.9 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.6 4.3 3.9 4.5 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 291 305 342 395 407 400 409 454 444 437 435 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 38 36 39 41 43 46 47 53 57 57 60 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 256 226 224 260 259 278 287 289 264 242 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 77 83 102 135 137 105 101 120 117 123 134 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 10 10 12 14 15 12 12 14 15 16 19 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 68 62 67 89 87 73 71 76 69 68 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 96 106 102 122 128 113 110 142 160 157 268 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 59 58 57 64 58 56 76 87 84 87 75 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 8 7 6 7 6 6 9 10 11 11 10 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 52 43 37 42 37 39 53 55 50 48 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 74 74 57 58 55 60 83 103 116 111 150 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 6.5 5.8 5.5 4.5 8.3 7.5 8.0 8.0 24.0 12.0 17.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 18.8 13.7 13.1 20.1 11.8 17.5 16.1 15.5 18.6 29.5 34.7 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.99 2.33 2.31 2.53 2.91 3.02 3.34 4.12 5.70 6.36 8.01 9.33 9.86Exchange rate ($) annual average 1.50 1.68 1.80 1.90 2.19 2.72 3.02 3.65 4.82 5.68 7.01 7.58 7.94Credit rating history Latest

Moody's Ba2 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa3 Baa3 Ba1 Ba1 Ba3 Ba3 B2 B2 naStandard & Poor's BB BB BB BB+ BB+ BB+ BBu BBu B+u B+u B+u B+u naFitch BB+ BB+ BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BBB- BB+ BB BB- BB- BB- naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




91

UAE 71 ARE 466 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 93: UAE key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Aa2/-/AA- EODB Rank: 16 (11) - Strong Corruption Rank: 21 (21) - Strong RenCap Legal score: 74 (73) - Middle

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP, % YoY 1.6 6.9 4.5 5.1 4.3 5.1 3.1 2.4 1.2 1.7 -5.9 3.1 2.6 NGDP_RPCHNominal GDP, AEDbn 1,064 1,288 1,376 1,433 1,481 1,315 1,311 1,416 1,551 1,547 1,301 1,475 1,505 NID_NGDPNominal GDP, $bn 290 351 375 390 403 358 357 386 422 421 354 402 410 LURPopulation, mn 8.3 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 NGDPGDP per capita, $ 35,064 41,195 42,724 43,197 43,340 37,381 36,226 38,032 40,479 39,180 31,982 35,171 34,828 NGDPDGross national saving (% of GDP) 31.3 35.6 41.4 38.0 35.7 30.5 29.7 32.4 33.1 32.2 28.2 30.0 29.2 LPUnemployment rate, % 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.2 2.3 5.0 na na NGDPDPCCredit to private sector, AEDbn 968 1,042 1,128 1,215 1,233 1,297 1,316 1,307 na naCredit to private sector, % of GDP 67.5 70.4 85.7 92.7 87.0 83.6 85.1 100 na naDeposits, AEDbn 806 828 879 944 1,059 1,123 1,208 1,224 1,258 1,324 1,342 na na NGSD_NGDPLoan-to-deposit ratio 102 98.3 100 101 101 103 99.4 97.4 na naPrices PCPIPCHCPI, % YoY annual average 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.1 2.3 4.1 1.6 2.0 3.1 -1.9 -2.1 2.9 1.2 PCPIEPCHCPI, % YoY year-end 1.7 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 3.6 1.6 2.0 3.1 -1.9 -2.1 2.9 1.2Fiscal balance GGXCNL_NGDPBudget balance, % of GDP 0.6 5.3 9.0 8.4 1.9 -3.4 -2.8 -1.7 1.9 0.6 -7.4 -1.3 -1.1 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt, % of GDP 19.5 21.5 21.2 16.0 14.2 16.7 19.4 21.6 20.9 26.8 38.3 37.1 39.2 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal balanceMerchandise exports, $bn 121 214 302 360 371 343 300 295 314 317 316 268 na na TXG_FOB_USDMerchandise imports, $bn 165 165 195 218 230 235 224 227 246 235 241 217 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance, $bn 49 107 142 141 108 77 68 67 82 75 51 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) 17 30 38 36 27 21 19 17 19 18 15 na naCurrent account balance, $bn 12 44 73 73 54 18 13 28 40 35 11 28 26 BCACurrent account balance, % of GDP 4 12 20 19 14 5 4 7 10 8 3 7 6 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI, $bn 5 8 10 10 11 9 10 10 10 14 10 na naNet FDI, % of GDP 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 na naCurrent account balance plus FDI, % of GDP 6 15 22 21 16 7 6 10 12 12 6 na naExports, % YoY 11 41 19 3 -8 -12 -2 6 1 0 -15 na naImports, % YoY 10 19 12 5 2 -5 1 9 -4 2 -10 na naInternational reserves, $bn 33 37 47 68 78 94 85 95 99 108 107 na naImport cover, months of imports 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 na naDebt indicatorsGross external debt, $bn 184 178 188 194 214 242 253 278 287 323 345 na naGross external debt, % of GDP 63 51 50 50 53 68 71 72 68 77 98 na naGross external debt, % of exports 30 17 14 13 15 23 24 23 21 24 36 na naInterest & exchange ratesBroad money supply, % YoY 4.0 1.6 8.2 11.2 9.1 2.2 5.1 5.4 7.8 7.2 3.0 na naPolicy interets rate, % year-end 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.75 2.75 2.00 1.25 na naExchange rate, AED/EUR year-end 4.92 4.76 4.85 5.05 4.44 3.99 3.86 4.41 4.21 4.12 4.49 4.48 4.48Exchange rate, AED/EUR annual average 4.87 5.11 4.72 4.88 4.88 4.08 4.07 4.15 4.34 4.11 4.19 4.42 4.48Exchange rate, AED/$ year-end 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67Exchange rate, AED/$ annual average 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67Credit rating history LatestMoody's Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 naStandard & Poor's AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA naFitch - - - - - - - - - - AA- AA- na

Source: FCSC, CBUAE, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



92

Uganda 72 UGA 746 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 94: Uganda key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) B2u/B/B+ EODB Rank: 116 (127) - Middle Corruption Rank: 142 (137) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 12 (14) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.5 7.7 2.3 3.9 5.7 7.3 0.3 7.3 6.0 8.0 -2.1 6.3 5.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 22.8 22.9 27.0 29.1 25.1 24.2 24.8 24.7 25.7 26.8 27.3 26.4 27.1 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 53.7 69.4 77.5 83.6 90.4 95.4 104 114 127 139 142 160 175 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 24.7 27.5 30.9 32.3 33.1 27.4 29.6 31.4 34.1 37.8 37.6 41.3 44.8 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 30.5 31.5 32.5 33.5 34.5 35.5 36.6 37.7 38.8 39.8 41.2 42.5 43.7 LPGDP per capita ($) 809 872 951 965 961 773 808 833 878 949 912 972 1,025 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 5 7 8 9 10 12 13 13 15 17 18 na naLending/GDP (%) 10.2 10.7 10.8 10.7 11.3 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.8 12.1 12.9 na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 16.2 15.3 21.7 23.4 18.6 18.1 22.0 20.0 20.0 21.1 18.2 18.0 21.4 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.7 15.0 12.7 4.9 3.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 2.6 2.9 3.8 5.2 5.5 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 1.5 23.7 4.3 5.5 2.1 8.4 5.7 3.3 2.2 3.6 3.6 5.8 5.1 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -4.6 -2.0 -2.4 -3.2 -2.7 -2.5 -3.5 -2.7 -3.0 -4.8 -7.6 -5.5 -4.3 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -3.9 -1.3 -1.4 -2.1 -1.5 -1.1 -1.5 -0.7 -1.2 -2.7 -5.3 -2.7 -1.3 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 18.4 18.0 19.5 22.1 24.8 28.7 31.0 33.7 34.9 37.3 45.7 48.8 50.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -12 -13 -12 -11 -12 -13 -9 -9 -11 -11 -11 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -7 -8 -5 -6 -7 -6 -3 -5 -6 -6 -9 -8 -6 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 2 3 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 -2 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 3 33 9 -5 -11 1 15 27 1 19 19 na naImports (% YoY, value) 10 21 7 -3 4 -9 -13 17 20 10 11 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 2.7 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.2 na na naImport cover (months of imports) 7.0 5.6 6.3 6.9 6.6 6.3 7.7 7.9 5.9 5.2 na na naExternal DebtGross external debt YE ($bn) 3 3 4 9 9 10 10 12 13 14 na na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 12 12 12 27 27 36 35 38 37 38 na na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 184 149 160 384 449 491 448 409 424 407 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 27 38 34 20 26 26 21 15 16 26 24 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 16 31 25 13 15 18 15 12 14 28 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 2 1 5 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 4 3 3 4 10 5 37 6 18 9 41 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 2 2 2 3 6 3 27 5 16 9 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na 23.0 12.0 11.5 11.0 17.0 12.0 9.5 10.0 9.0 7.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 41.5 10.5 16.2 9.9 14.6 11.7 11.1 12.7 8.2 15.9 17.1 na naExchange rate (€) annual average 2,889 3,513 3,221 3,437 3,624 3,859 3,909 4,106 4,388 4,116 4,313 4,756 4,850


Moody's - - - B1 B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2u naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B+ B+ B B B B B B B B naFitch B B B B B B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ B+ naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




93

Ukraine 73 UKR 926 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 95: Ukraine key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B3/B/B EODB Rank: 64 (71) - Middle Corruption Rank: 117 (126) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 36 (34) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 4.1 5.5 0.2 0.0 -6.6 -9.8 2.4 2.5 3.4 3.2 -4.0 3.5 4.1 NGDP_RPCHPrivate consumption (% YoY) 7.0 15.7 8.4 6.9 -8.3 -19.8 2.7 9.5 9.3 10.9 1.6 5.5 5.0 NID_NGDPGovernment consumption (% YoY) 4.3 -2.9 4.5 -0.9 1.1 1.7 -0.5 5.2 -0.1 -13.6 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 LURInvestment (% YoY) 3.4 8.5 5.0 -8.4 -24.0 -9.2 20.4 16.1 16.5 11.7 -24.4 4.0 8.0 NGDPUnemployment rate (%) 8.2 8.0 7.6 7.3 9.3 9.1 9.3 9.5 8.8 8.2 10.0 8.0 7.5 NGDPDNominal GDP (UAHbn) 1,079 1,300 1,405 1,465 1,587 1,989 2,385 2,984 3,561 3,975 4,045 4,395 4,804 LPNominal GDP ($bn) 136 163 174 180 132 91 93 112 131 154 149 155 166 NGDPDPCPopulation (mn) 46 46 46 45 43 43 43 42 42 42 42 41 41GDP per capita ($) 2,965 3,568 3,815 3,955 3,076 2,121 2,192 2,647 3,103 3,677 3,595 3,743 4,021Stock of bank credit to corp/households (UAHbn) 733 802 817 904 1,021 982 998 1,016 1,073 961 938 1,004 1,205 NGSD_NGDPStock of bank credit to corp/households (% of GDP) 68 62 58 62 64 49 42 34 30 24 23 23 25Deposits (UAHbn) 417 492 568 674 653 716 793 899 933 1,072 1,346 1,427 1,499 PCPIPCHLoan-to-deposit ratio 176 163 144 134 156 137 126 113 115 90 70 70 80 PCPIEPCHPricesCPI (average % YoY) 9.4 8.0 0.6 -0.3 12.1 48.5 14.9 14.5 11.0 7.9 2.7 9.0 5.3 GGXCNL_NGDPCPI (end-year % YoY) 9.1 4.6 -0.2 0.5 24.9 43.3 12.4 13.7 9.8 4.1 5.0 6.7 5.0 GGXONLB_NGDPNominal wages (monthly), UAH 2,250 2,648 3,041 3,282 3,480 4,195 5,183 7,104 8,865 10,497 11,400 13,110 14,814 GGXWDG_NGDPWage rates (% YoY, nominal) 18.0 17.7 14.8 7.9 6.0 20.5 23.6 37.1 24.8 18.4 8.6 15.0 13.0Fiscal balance 40 TXG_FOB_USDState budget balance (% of GDP) 45 -5.8 -1.4 -3.5 -4.4 -4.6 -2.1 -2.9 -1.5 -1.9 -2.2 -5.3 -4.5 -2.5 TMG_CIF_USDConsolidated budget balance (% of GDP) -6.0 -1.8 -3.6 -4.3 -4.5 -1.6 -2.3 -1.4 -1.9 -2.0 -5.8 -4.3 -2.3Total public debt (% of GDP) 39.9 35.9 36.6 40.1 70.2 79.4 81.0 71.8 60.9 50.3 62.5 61.0 58.1External balance BCAExports ($bn) 47 62 64 59 51 35 34 40 43 46 45 48 50 BCA_NGDPDImports ($bn) 57 80 86 81 58 39 41 49 56 60 52 57 61Trade balance ($bn) -10 -18 -22 -22 -7 -3 -7 -10 -13 -14 -6 -9 -11Trade balance (% of GDP) -7 -11 -13 -12 -5 -4 -7 -9 -10 -9 -4 -6 -7Current account balance ($bn) -3 -10 -14 -17 -5 5 -2 -4 -6 -4 7 1 -1Current account balance (% of GDP) -2 -6 -8 -9 -3 6 -2 -3 -5 -3 4 0 -1Gross FDI ($bn) 6 7 8 5 1 0 4 4 5 6 0 3 5Gross FDI (% of GDP) 5 4 5 3 1 0 4 3 3 4 0 2 3Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 3 -2 -4 -7 -3 5 2 0 -1 1 4 2 2Exports (% YoY, value) 27 32 3 -8 -14 -30 -5 18 9 6 -2 7 3Imports (% YoY, value) 34 41 7 -6 -29 -33 4 22 14 8 -15 11 6Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) 35 32 25 20 8 13 16 19 21 25 29 33 35Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 7 5 3 3 2 4 5 5 4 5 7 7 7Debt indicatorsGross external debt year-end ($bn) 117 126 135 142 125 118 113 115 115 122 125 129 131Gross external debt (% of GDP) 86 78 77 79 95 130 121 103 88 79 84 83 79Gross external debt (% of exports) 248 202 209 240 248 332 335 291 265 264 277 268 264Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (% YoY) 22.7 14.7 12.8 17.6 5.3 3.9 10.9 9.6 5.7 12.6 31.0 5.0 8.0Key rate (%) year-end 7.8 7.8 7.5 6.5 14.0 22.0 14.0 14.5 18.0 13.5 6.0 8.0 9.5Exchange rate (UAH /EUR) year-end 10.5 10.4 10.6 11.3 19.1 26.1 28.3 33.7 31.8 26.7 34.7 35.5 37.0Exchange rate (UAH /EUR) annual average 10.5 11.1 10.4 10.8 15.9 24.3 28.3 30.1 32.1 28.9 31.0 35.0 36.3Exchange rate (UAH/$) year-end 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 15.8 24.0 27.3 28.1 27.7 23.8 28.3 28.6 29.4Exchange rate (UAH /$) annual average 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 12.0 21.9 25.6 26.6 27.2 25.8 27.1 28.4 29.0Credit rating history LatestMoody's B2 B2 B3 Caa1 Caa3 Caa3 Caa3 Caa2 Caa1 Caa1 B3 B3 naStandard & Poor's B+ B+ B B- CCC- B- B- B- B- B B B naFitch B B B B- CCC CCC B- B- B- B B B na

Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine, NBU, MinFin, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital



94

Uzbekistan 74 UZB 927 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 96: Uzbekistan key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) B1/BB-/BB- EODB Rank: 69 (76) - Middle Corruption Rank: 146 (153) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 27 (25) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 7.3 7.8 7.4 7.6 7.2 7.4 6.1 4.5 5.4 5.6 1.6 5.6 5.5 NGDP_RPCHPrivate consumption (% YoY) 10.8 13.7 10.9 10.3 10.7 12.0 9.4 3.9 5.9 6.8 0.0 7.5 6.5 NID_NGDPGovernment consumption (% YoY) 7.0 8.8 8.5 8.6 8.4 6.7 2.7 1.5 4.8 6.1 4.0 2.5 5.0 LURInvestment (% YoY) 4.2 2.6 10.6 11.3 9.8 9.4 4.1 19.4 29.9 33.9 -8.0 13.0 10.0 NGDPIndustrial production (% YoY) 8.5 6.5 7.8 9.5 8.3 7.9 6.2 8.0 16.6 5.0 -2.2 6.5 6.0 NGDPDNominal GDP (UZStrn) 74.0 96.9 120 145 177 210 242 303 407 512 587 678 770 LPNominal GDP ($bn) 46.7 56.5 63.8 69.1 76.7 81.8 81.8 58.9 50.0 57.8 58.3 61.1 63.1 NGDPDPCPopulation (mn) 29.1 29.6 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.6 32.1 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.6 35.2 35.9GDP per capita ($) 1,602 1,913 2,126 2,265 2,473 2,591 2,547 1,803 1,504 1,705 1,688 1,735 1,757Prices NGSD_NGDPCPI (average % YoY) 12.3 12.4 11.9 11.7 9.1 8.5 8.8 13.9 17.6 14.5 13.0 10.0 8.0CPI (end-year % YoY) 7.3 13.6 10.9 10.8 9.2 8.4 9.8 18.8 14.3 15.2 11.1 9.5 7.5 PCPIPCHNominal wages (monthly), UZS '000 505 628 740 866 1,008 1,172 1,294 1,361 1,667 2,171 2,573 2,959 3,373 PCPIEPCHWage rates (% YoY, nominal) - 24.4 17.8 17.1 16.4 16.2 10.4 5.2 22.5 30.2 18.5 15.0 14.0Fiscal balance GGXCNL_NGDPCentral government balance (% of GDP) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 -1.1 -5.8 -2.7 -2.5 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 10.0 9.1 8.6 7.9 7.1 10.3 11.6 19.7 29.4 30.4 36.9 35.4 34.9 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal balanceExports ($bn) 5 12 13 11 11 11 9 9 10 11 14 12 14 15 TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 10 9 11 12 13 14 12 11 12 18 21 18 21 23 TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) 3 2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -7 -7 -5 -7 -8Trade balance (% of GDP) 6 4 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -14 -13 -9 -12 -13Current account balance ($bn) 3 3 1 2 3 1 0 1 -4 -3 -2 -3 -3 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) 7 5 1 2 3 1 0 3 -7 -6 -3 -5 -5 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 3Net FDI (% of GDP) 4 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 5 5Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 10 8 2 3 4 3 2 5 -5 -4 0 0 -1Exports (% YoY, value) 1 13 -15 1 -7 -10 -9 18 12 22 -12 10 8Imports (% YoY, value) -26 24 12 8 4 -14 -5 12 47 16 -17 18 9Foreign exchange reserves ($bn) - - - 22 24 24 26 28 27 29 33 36 37Import cover (months of merchandise imports) - - - 21 21 25 29 27 18 17 23 21 19Debt indicatorsGross external debt year-end ($bn) - - - 9.8 11.6 12.9 14.6 15.6 17.1 24.1 29.8 34.5 38.0Gross external debt (% of GDP) - - - 14.2 15.1 15.8 17.9 26.6 34.1 41.7 51.1 56.5 60.2Gross external debt (% of exports) - - - 86 110 136 169 154 150 174 242 255 260Interest & exchange ratesBroad money supply (%YoY) 52.4 32.3 29.2 22.5 15.2 24.3 23.6 41.0 13.2 13.8 13.5 17.0 13.0Key policy rate (%) year-end 14.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 9.0 9.0 14.0 16.0 16.0 14.0 13.0 12.0Exchange rate (UZS/EUR) year-end 2,196 2,327 2,618 3,026 2,931 3,030 3,393 9,745 9,563 10,657 12,787 14,391 15,750Exchange rate (UZS/EUR) annual average 2,104 2,388 2,425 2,783 3,066 2,851 3,280 5,869 9,573 9,895 11,493 13,542 15,128Exchange rate (UZS/$) year-end 1,640 1,795 1,984 2,202 2,422 2,791 3,225 8,120 8,404 9,506 10,466 11,700 12,600Exchange rate (UZS/$) annual average 1,587 1,715 1,885 2,093 2,310 2,569 2,965 5,138 8,131 8,854 10,055 11,100 12,200Credit rating history LatestMoody's - - - - - - - - - B1 B1 B1 naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - BB- BB- BB- BB- naFitch - - - - - - - - BB- BB- BB- BB- na

Source: State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics, CBU, MinFin, Federal Treasury, IMF, WB, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital estimates



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Vietnam 75 VNM 582 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 97: Vietnam key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ba3/BB/BB EODB Rank: 70 (69) - Middle Corruption Rank: 104 (96) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 32 (31) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 6.4 6.4 5.5 5.6 6.4 7.0 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.0 2.9 6.5 7.2 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 35.4 29.5 27.0 26.4 26.6 27.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.4 28.1 28.0 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) 2.9 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.3 2.7 2.4 LURNominal GDP (lcl tn) 2,740 3,540 4,074 4,474 4,937 5,191 5,639 6,294 6,998 7,654 7,912 8,448 9,467 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 143 171 195 213 233 237 252 277 304 330 341 355 390 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 88.0 87.9 88.8 89.8 90.7 91.7 92.7 93.7 94.7 96.5 97.4 98.3 99.2 LPGDP per capita ($) 1,629 1,950 2,198 2,370 2,567 2,582 2,720 2,958 3,211 3,415 3,499 3,609 3,928 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, tn) 2,476 2,830 3,078 3,470 3,950 4,693 5,575 6,544 7,379 8,326 na na naLending/GDP (%) 90.4 79.9 75.5 77.6 80.0 90.4 98.9 104 105 109 na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 32.4 29.6 31.7 30.0 30.3 26.4 26.6 25.7 28.2 30.4 28.6 30.5 29.9 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 9.2 18.7 9.1 6.6 4.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.2 3.9 3.9 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 11.7 18.1 6.8 6.0 1.8 0.6 4.7 2.6 3.0 5.2 0.2 4.3 4.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance -2.3 -0.9 -5.5 -6.0 -5.0 -5.0 -3.2 -2.0 -1.0 -3.3 -5.4 -4.7 -4.4 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance -1.3 -0.1 -4.5 -4.8 -3.7 -3.4 -1.6 -0.4 0.5 -1.9 -4.0 -3.4 -3.2 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 36.8 35.8 38.3 41.4 43.6 46.1 47.6 46.3 43.6 43.4 46.6 48.0 47.3 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 58 70 93 111 129 146 160 176 213 239 259 281 na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 70 83 104 112 129 143 177 186 226 231 249 262 na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -13 -11 0 -1 2 -16 -11 -13 8 10 19 na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -9 -6 0 0 1 -7 -4 -5 2 3 6 na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -4 0 9 8 9 -2 1 -2 6 12 8 8 8 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -3 0 5 4 4 -1 0 -1 2 4 2 2 2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 7 7 7 7 8 11 12 14 15 16 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 5 4 4 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 2 4 8 7 7 4 5 4 7 9 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 22 33 19 16 13 10 10 21 12 9 8 na naImports (% YoY, value) 19 25 7 16 11 23 6 22 2 8 5 na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 12.5 13.5 25.6 25.9 34.2 28.3 36.5 49.1 55.5 78.3 na na naImport cover (months of imports) 1.8 1.6 2.7 2.4 2.9 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.8 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 67 76 85 95 98 112 113 124 113 96 98 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 47 44 43 45 42 47 45 45 37 29 29 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 95 81 76 74 67 70 65 58 47 37 35 na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 12 17 19 19 21 21 23 32 32 37 40 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 8 10 10 9 9 9 9 12 11 11 12 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 17 18 17 15 14 13 13 15 13 14 14 na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 94 124 76 74 61 73 62 65 58 47 na na naTotal debt service ($bn) 2 4 5 5 7 7 7 14 18 17 18 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 6 5 5 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 6 8 6 6 na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 15 31 18 17 20 23 20 28 33 21 na na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) 9.0 15.0 9.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.0 4.0 na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 33.3 12.1 34.9 4.4 17.7 16.2 18.4 15.0 12.4 14.8 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 25,372 28,766 26,843 27,936 28,163 24,335 24,757 25,668 27,197 26,005 26,538 29,274 30,168


Moody's B1 B1 B2 B2 B1 B1 B1 B1 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 Ba3 naStandard & Poor's BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB- BB BB BB naFitch B+ B+ B+ B+ BB- BB- BB- BB- BB BB BB BB naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Zambia 76 ZMB 754 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 98: Zambia key economic indicators - RenCap forecastsRatings (M/S&P/F) Ca/SD/RD EODB Rank: 85 (87) - Middle Corruption Rank: 117 (113) - Middle RenCap Legal score: 23 (26) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (%YoY) 7.6 6.8 7.6 5.1 4.7 2.9 3.8 3.5 4.0 1.5 -3.0 2.3 2.5 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% of GDP) 29.9 33.6 31.8 34.0 34.0 42.8 38.2 41.0 39.4 40.2 34.5 28.9 26.9 NID_NGDPNominal GDP (ZMWbn) 97.2 115 131 151 167 183 216 246 275 300 340 434 502 LURNominal GDP (€bn) 15.3 17.1 19.9 21.1 20.6 19.2 19.0 23.5 21.7 20.8 16.3 15.5 15.5 NGDPNominal GDP (US$bn) 20.3 23.8 25.5 28.1 27.1 21.2 20.9 26.2 25.1 23.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 NGDPDCopper price, $/t, avg 7,538 8,824 7,971 7,328 6,861 5,512 4,867 6,170 5,949 5,800 6,186 8,050 8,060 LPPopulation (m) 13.3 13.6 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.0 NGDPDPCGDP per capita (US$) 1,528 1,749 1,727 1,842 1,724 1,307 1,253 1,522 1,412 1,273 983 969 957Gross national saving (% of GDP) 37.4 38.3 37.1 33.4 36.1 40.1 34.9 39.3 38.1 40.8 36.0 35.4 32.5Bank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) 9.0 10.8 15.0 16.9 19.1 23.1 20.8 21.9 25.6 30.0 36.0 43.2 51.8 NGSD_NGDPLending/GDP (%) 9.3 9.3 11.4 11.1 11.4 12.6 9.6 8.9 9.3 10.0 10.6 9.9 10.3Loan to deposit ratio 53.1 57.1 66.0 61.4 62.0 56.4 50.2 45.3 47.4 50.2 52.0 53.0 54.0 PCPIPCHPrices PCPIEPCHCPI (average %YoY) 8.5 8.8 6.6 7.0 7.8 10.1 16.4 6.6 7.0 9.8 15.7 16.3 12.0CPI (end-year %YoY) 7.9 9.9 7.3 7.1 7.9 21.1 7.5 6.1 7.9 11.7 19.2 13.4 10.5 GGXCNL_NGDPFiscal balance (% of GDP) GGXONLB_NGDPGeneral government budget balance (cash basis) -2.4 -1.7 -2.8 -6.2 -5.8 -9.5 -6.1 -7.7 -8.3 -9.8 -13.9 -9.3 -6.9 GGXWDG_NGDPTotal public debt 18.9 20.8 25.4 27.1 36.1 62.3 60.7 61.9 78.1 94 118 119 130External balance TXG_FOB_USDExports (US$bn) 7 9 10 11 10 7 7 8 9 7 8 8 9 TMG_CIF_USDImports (US$bn) 5 6 8 9 9 7 6 7 9 7 5 6 6Trade balance (US$bn) 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 3 3 3Trade balance (% of GDP) 14 10 6 6 6 1 1 4 2 3 17 14 13 BCACurrent account balance (US$bn) 3 2 1 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 2 2 BCA_NGDPDCurrent account balance (% of GDP) 17 10 2 4 2 -5 -3 -2 -1 1 12 10 8Net FDI (US$bn) 1 1 2 2 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0Net FDI (% of GDP) 3 5 10 6 12 6 2 5 1 -1 1 1 1Current account balance plus FDI (% of GDP) 20 15 12 10 14 0 -1 3 0 0 13 11 9Exports (%YoY, value) 71 17 9 14 -6 -28 -11 26 10 -20 10 5 8Imports (%YoY, value) 38 37 23 16 -7 -16 -13 15 17 -24 -26 20 5Foreign exchange reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4Import cover (months of merchandise imports) 3.7 3.2 3.6 2.7 3.5 4.0 4.6 3.5 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.7Debt indicatorsGross external debt (US$bn) 17 19 22 24 24 23 23Gross external debt (% of GDP) 84 75 88 103 131 122 118Gross external debt (% of exports) 268 237 245 331 303 274 257Total debt service (US$bn) 1 0 1 1 2 2 2Total debt service (% of GDP) 4 20 41 82 101 94 90Total debt service (% of exports) 13 5 10 19 19 18 17Interest & exchange ratesPolicy rate, %YE 9.3 9.8 12.5 15.5 15.5 10.3 9.8 11.5 8.0 9.0 10.0Broad money supply (%YoY) 27.7 21.7 26.4 12.7 12.6 35.2 -5.7 21.4 16.5 12.5 30.0 30.0 30.03-month interest rate (t-bill YE %) 6.3 7.1 7.8 8.0 13.0 15.0 14.0 9.0 8.5 16.5 17.0 14.0 14.05Y yield (% YE) 13.0 15.4 13.5 16.5 18.7 25.0 21.0 17.0 16.0 32.5 33.0 28.0 23.0Exchange rate (ZMW/EUR) year-end 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.6 7.7 11.9 10.5 11.4 13.9 15.4 25.0 30.2 34.6Exchange rate (ZMW/EUR) annual average 6.4 6.8 6.6 7.2 8.1 9.5 11.3 10.5 12.7 14.4 20.8 28.0 32.4Exchange rate (ZMW/$) year-end 4.79 5.13 5.21 5.52 6.39 11.0 9.94 9.70 12.2 14.0 21.2 24.8 27.7Exchange rate (ZMW/$) annual average 4.80 4.86 5.14 5.39 6.16 8.65 10.3 9.40 11.0 12.9 18.3 23.0 26.2Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - B1 B1 B1 B2 B3 B3 Caa1 Caa2 Ca Ca naStandard & Poor's - B+ B+ B+ B+ B B B B- CCC+ SD SD naFitch - B+ B+ B B B B B B- CCC RD RD naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Zimbabwe 77 ZWE 698 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Figure 99: Zimbabwe key economic indicatorsRatings (M/S&P/F) -/-/- EODB Rank: 140 (155) - Weak Corruption Rank: 157 (158) - Weak RenCap Legal score: 12 (13) - Weak

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022EActivityReal GDP (% YoY) 19.7 14.2 16.7 2.0 2.4 1.8 0.7 4.7 3.5 -7.4 -8.0 3.1 4.0 NGDP_RPCHInvestment (% GDP) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NID_NGDPUnemployment rate year-end (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na na LURNominal GDP (lcl bn) 12 14 17 19 19 20 21 27 43 162 1,090 2,312 2,939 NGDPNominal GDP ($bn) 12 14 17 19 19 20 20 22 21 19 21 26 29 NGDPDPopulation (mn) 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 LPGDP per capita ($) 976 1,132 1,310 1,422 1,415 1,425 1,409 1,516 1,441 1,293 1,385 1,684 1,856 NGDPDPCBank credit to private sector (lcl, bn) na na na na na na na na na na na na naLending/GDP (%) na na na na na na na na na na na na naGross domestic saving (% of GDP) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NGSD_NGDPPricesCPI (average % YoY) 3.0 3.5 3.7 1.6 -0.2 -2.4 -1.6 0.9 10.6 255 557 99.3 24.7 PCPIPCHCPI (year-end, % YoY) 3.2 4.9 2.9 0.3 -0.8 -2.5 -0.9 3.4 42.1 521 349 49.4 22.0 PCPIEPCHFiscal balance (% of GDP)Consolidated government balance 0.2 -2.5 0.0 -1.3 -1.1 -1.8 -6.5 -8.3 -4.7 -1.4 1.1 -0.8 -0.8 GGXCNL_NGDPPrimary government balance 1.1 -2.2 0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.9 -5.9 -7.5 -3.8 -1.0 1.5 -0.6 -0.6 GGXONLB_NGDPTotal public debt (% of GDP) 47.6 42.9 38.3 36.9 42.2 47.5 48.5 43.7 33.6 112.1 88.9 51.4 55.0 GGXWDG_NGDPExternal indicatorsExports ($bn) 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 na na na TXG_FOB_USDImports ($bn) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 na na na TMG_CIF_USDTrade balance ($bn) -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 na na naTrade balance (% of GDP) -15 -14 -6 -6 -6 -7 -5 -7 -7 -3 na na naCurrent account balance ($bn) -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 1 1 1 0 BCACurrent account balance (% of GDP) -12 -17 -11 -13 -12 -8 -4 -2 -8 4 5 4 2 BCA_NGDPDNet FDI ($bn) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 na na naNet FDI (% of GDP) 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 1 na na naC/A balance plus FDI (% of GDP) -11 -15 -9 -11 -9 -6 -2 0 -5 6 na na naExports (% YoY, value) 47 19 32 -1 -5 -12 -2 -12 17 4 na na naImports (% YoY, value) 26 14 0 2 -4 -5 -7 5 8 -15 na na naFX reserves (ex gold, US$bn) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 na naImport cover (months of imports) 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.4 na na naExternal Debt External debt figures for 2020 are as of 30-SepGross external debt YE ($bn) 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 na naGross external debt YE (% of GDP) 34 30 28 26 20 20 20 19 18 10 9 na naGross external debt YE (% of exports) 156 134 118 120 99 119 121 142 109 56 na na naShort-term external debt YE ($bn) 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of GDP) 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 2 2 2 na naShort-term external debt YE (% of exports) 11 11 12 17 13 18 15 28 12 10 na na naShort-term external debt to reserves (%) 39 54 86 144 138 149 127 283 468 239 1,408 na naTotal debt service ($bn) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 na naTotal debt service (% of GDP) 3 8 4 3 3 3 6 3 3 8 7 na naTotal debt service (% of exports) 15 37 18 14 13 19 37 24 18 44 na na naTotal debt service to reserves (%) 53 175 129 123 141 159 304 245 701 1,054 4,407 na naCurrency and monetary policy IMF forecastsKey policy rate (% YE) na na na na na na na na na na na na naBroad money growth (%YoY) 61.1 31.2 27.5 4.6 12.6 8.2 19.0 38.6 28.0 250 na na naExchange rate (€) annual average 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.4 9.4 59.2 109 124Exchange rate ($) annual average 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 2.0 8.4 51.8 89 100Credit rating history Latest

Moody's - - - - - - - - - - - - naStandard & Poor's - - - - - - - - - - - - naFitch - - - - - - - - - - - - naNote: 2020-22E exchange rate forecasts are the IMF implied exchange rates from April 2021 World Economic Outlook




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Thoughts from a Renaissance Man Trust in China

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