This publication was prepared for the NSW Department of ... demand and supply consultancy – Stage...

This publication was prepared for the NSW Department of Planning and Environment in association with the Greater Sydney Commission for the purpose of district planning. No representation is made about the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the information in this document for any particular purpose nor should be assumed that the contents of the document represent the views of the NSW Government. The NSW Government its agents, consultants or employees shall not be liable for any damage which may occur to any person or organisation taking action or not on the basis of this publication. Readers should seek appropriate advice when applying the information to their speci�c needs. This document may be subject to revision without notice.

Project director Chris Abery [email protected] +61 3 8825 5877

Project manager Matthew Lee [email protected] +61 3 8825 5895

Project Code DP1602

Client reference 45366417

Date 31 May 2016

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared by Deep End Services Pty Ltd solely for use by the party to whom it is addressed. Accordingly, any changes to this report will only be notified to that party. Deep End Services Pty Ltd, its employees and agents accept no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage which may arise from the use or reliance on this report or any information contained therein by any other party and gives no guarantees or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Table of Contents

1. Introduction ............................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Study brief .................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Study area .................................................................................................. 1

2. Methodology ........................................................................................... 2 2.1 Interim estimates ....................................................................................... 2 2.2 Retailer type categories.............................................................................. 2 2.3 Spatial breakdown ...................................................................................... 3 2.4 Data sources ............................................................................................... 3 2.5 Department stores ..................................................................................... 4 2.6 Discount department stores ....................................................................... 4 2.7 Supermarkets ............................................................................................. 4 2.8 Specialty retail ............................................................................................ 4 2.9 Large format retail floorspace .................................................................... 5 2.10 Data currency ............................................................................................. 5 2.11 Data limitations .......................................................................................... 6

3. Sydney retail provision ............................................................................ 7 3.1 Summary of results .................................................................................... 7 3.2 Total retail provision by retailer type ......................................................... 7 3.3 Retail provision by District .......................................................................... 9 3.4 Retail provision by LGA ............................................................................. 10 3.5 Retail demand projections ....................................................................... 12

4. Supermarket accessibility ...................................................................... 16

Figures

Figure 1: Sydney Metropolitan Area, Districts and LGAs .............................................. 1 Figure 2: Google Earth Pro ............................................................................................ 5 Figure 3: Google Streetview .......................................................................................... 5 Figure 4: Retail floorspace provision in Sydney Metropolitan Region .......................... 8 Figure 5: Supermarket accessibility analysis ............................................................... 17

Tables

Table 1: Data sources .................................................................................................... 3 Table 2: Retail floorspace provision by type, Sydney 2015 ........................................... 7 Table 3: Retail floorspace summary by District, 2015 ................................................... 9 Table 4: Retail floorspace provision rate summary by District, 2015 ............................ 9 Table 5: Retail floorspace summary by LGA 2015 ....................................................... 10 Table 6: Retail floorspace provision rate summary by LGA, 2015 ............................... 11 Table 7: Growth in average retail provision (Medium series) ..................................... 12 Table 8: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to

2031 (LOW projection) ................................................................................ 13 Table 9: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to

2031 (MEDIUM projection) ......................................................................... 14 Table 10: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to

2031 (HIGH projection)................................................................................ 15

Retail demand and supply consultancy – Stage Two report deep end services pty ltd 1

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

A Plan for Growing Sydney (‘The Plan’) is the NSW State Government’s strategic plan to sustain strong growth in the Sydney Metropolitan Region over the next 20 years. The Plan responds to population projections which predict that Sydney will grow by 1.6 million people over that period, well in excess of recent historic growth.

Action 1.7.2 of The Plan states that the Government has committed to “support local councils to plan for adequate retail and commercial capacity in centres by developing demand and supply data sets for office and retail development”. The creation of a reliable retail floorspace dataset will help to accurately forecast demand, assess future land requirements and assist councils and infrastructure providers to plan for growth.

The information will also assist in the preparation of District Plans.

1.2 Study brief

Deep End Services has been commissioned to undertake an investigation of retail floorspace demand and supply across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. The overall purposes of the study are as follows:

Stage 1: Estimate demand for retail floorspace generated by projected population growth, at Local Government Area (‘LGA’) and District-level scales for 2021, 2026, and 2031; Stage 2: Prepare a comprehensive database of the existing supply of retail floorspace in the Sydney Metropolitan Area, and refine the results of Stage 1 in light of these findings; and Stage 3: Provide recommendations on monitoring future retail floorspace supply.

This report presents findings from Part 2 of the study brief, consisting of detailed estimates and further analysis of the existing supply of retail floorspace at individual centres across the Sydney Metropolitan Area.

1.3 Study area

Analysis is conducted for the Sydney Metropolitan Area and individual Districts as defined in The Plan and set out below.

Figure 1: Sydney Metropolitan Area, Districts and LGAs


2. METHODOLOGY

2.1 Interim estimates

Interim estimates of the existing supply of retail floorspace were prepared during Stage 1 of this project. These were based on a methodology for estimating the average per capital demand for retail floorspace, with an implicit assumption that the demand and supply of retail floorspace is in balance.

The Stage 1 analysis concluded that the average retail floorspace provision rate in the Sydney Metropolitan Region was 2.41 sqm per capita in 2015, with total retail floorspace therefore estimated at 11.07 million sqm at that time.

The interim estimates were formulated using a combination of the following:

• Actual supply data:

▪ Floorspace survey results from the City of Sydney Floorspace and Employment Survey

▪ Actual floorspace data for major store types

• Estimates of average floorspace provision for:

▪ Large format retail based on analysis of total LFR sales and translation into floorspace

▪ Specialty retail store types based on interstate datasets.

Stage 2 estimates adopt a more detailed methodology that includes street-based analysis of individual centres and incorporation of other data sources.

2.2 Retailer type categories

Estimates of retail floorspace supply for individual centres in Sydney are prepared for the following retailer types:

• Department stores

▪ All Myer and David Jones stores

• Discount department stores

▪ All Big W, Target (including Target Country), Kmart and Harris Scarfe stores

• Supermarkets

▪ All stores operated by Woolworths (including those branded Safeway), Coles (including those still trading as Bi Lo), and ALDI

▪ All other supermarkets (for example those operated by IGA, Foodworks, Supabarn and Aboutlife) where the floorspace is in excess of 1,000sqm

▪ Smaller stores less than 1,000sqm are included as specialty retail except where operated by the major brands

• Large format retailers

▪ Retail businesses predominantly involved in the sale, hire or display of automotive parts and accessories, floor and window coverings, electrical goods, furniture, hardware, garden and pool supplies, homewares, baby goods, sporting equipment, camping equipment and outdoor gear, office goods, party supplies and pet supplies

▪ This retailer category does not distinguish on the basis of shop location or store size, and so includes smaller shops selling these categories of goods even where they are located within traditional shopping centres or strip centres

• Specialty retailers

▪ All other retailers, including grocery and convenience stores, specialty food stores, liquor stores, cafés, restaurants, takeaway food stores, clothing shops, shoes and other accessories shops, jewellers, chemists, newsagents, bookshops, variety stores, travel goods, music stores, florists, footwear repairs, hair & beauty salons, laundrettes and dry cleaners, and optometrists.


2.3 Spatial breakdown

The total coverage for the retail supply dataset is the Sydney Metropolitan Region as a whole (refer Figure 1).

Within this region, retail floorspace estimates have been produced for individual polygon shapes which represent activity centres or business precincts.

A total of 1,463 centres are defined for which retail floorspace has been measured or estimated.

The definition of centres is based on the location of business zones in individual Local Environmental Plans. Other ‘centres’ have been created from selected industrial zones or other known precincts.

No data has been presented for individual centres or precincts within the City of Sydney where the Floorspace and Employment Survey provides an alternative and comprehensive source for local retail floorspace provision.

2.4 Data sources

The Sydney retail supply data incorporates a number of different data sources and methodologies depending on the retailer type, shopping formats and geography, as summarised in Table 1.

A detailed description of the way that these data sources are used for each retailer type is presented below.

Table 1: Data sources

Retailer type Shopping centre Strip retail Homemaker centre Highway precinct Industrial precinct

Department stores ) . . . .

Discount department stores ) ) . . .

Supermarkets (> 1,000sqm) ) ) ) ) )

Specialty retail ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

Large format retail ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) )

Legend

Deep End Services )

Google Earth / Streetview )

PCA Shoppng Centre Directory )

LFR Directory )

Other )

Not relevant .


2.5 Department stores

Deep End Services has a full database of the size and location of department stores in Sydney. This data is geocoded to the relevant shopping centre.

2.6 Discount department stores

Deep End Services has a complete database of the size and location of discount department stores in Sydney. This data is geocoded to the relevant shopping centre.

2.7 Supermarkets

Supermarket floorspace refers to stores in excess of 1,000sqm or operated by the major brands.

Deep End Services has an accurate database of major supermarkets. This data is geocoded to the relevant shopping centre or precinct.

Smaller supermarkets are captured as part of Specialty retailer floorspace (refer below).

2.8 Specialty retail

Estimates of specialty retail floorspace for each centre are generated as follows:

Shopping centres

Where shopping centre floorspace information is published in the Property Council of Australia’s Shopping Centre Directory 2015 (New South Wales and ACT), this information is used to estimate the split between Specialty retail floorspace and Large format retail floorspace.

The process is as follows:

• Exclude shopping centre floorspace associated with department stores, discount department stores and supermarkets

• For mini major floorspace, distribute to Specialty and Large format retail according to information in relevant Urbis Shopping Centre Benchmarks publications depending on the type of centre. The Urbis benchmark category ‘Homewares’ is used to describe Large format retail mini majors

• For the remaining floorspace, distribute to Specialty and Large format retail according to information in relevant Urbis Shopping Centre Benchmarks publications for different types of centres. Large format retail type retailers consist of Homewares and other categories such as sporting goods and automotive accessories.

Where floorspace information is not contained within the PCA Shopping Centre Directory, internet searches are made to determine the overall size of the centre, and published centre directories are used to distribute by retailer type.

In some circumstances (usually for small centres) no information is available. In these cases, an estimate is made of the total building area and the potential tenancy floorspace (ie excluding pedestrian mall space), and floorspace is distributed by type according to typical proportions or using directory boards where these are visible on Google Streetview.

Strip centres

Specialty retailers occupying tenancies outside managed shopping centres are estimated using a combination of Google Earth Pro and Google Streetview.

The process is as follows:

• Centres and precincts are divided into smaller subareas for ease of measurement

• These subareas are drawn into Google Earth Pro to define the leasable space by excluding car parking, access and other outdoor areas (refer Figure 2)

• Lot boundaries are overlaid into Google Earth Pro to assist in estimating the distribution of businesses by type

• Google Streetview is used to travel along each street frontage within the subarea and to allocate each tenancy/business to retail and non-retail categories (refer Figure 3)

• Where upper level tenancies are evident this area is added into the dataset and allocated by type

• Retail floorspace is captured for all businesses within the centre boundary (as defined by the planning zone), as well as for retailers in the immediate environs that should be considered within the ‘centre’ in question

• In instances where shop names are not visible or frontages are obscured (including for example within arcades) the distribution of floorspace by type is based on previous examples or from directories observable on Streetview or from other sources

• In cases where individual businesses occupy larger sites, the area of the building is measured directly in Google Earth Pro.


Figure 2: Google Earth Pro

Figure 3: Google Streetview

For a number of centres retail floorspace data has been sourced from recent studies undertaken by Deep End Services or other consultants. These examples include Liverpool (where HillPDA data has been used for shopfront floorspace, with some minor adjustments made for recent known developments), Narellan, Camden, Campbelltown and some other smaller centres in the Macarthur region where Deep End Services has undertaken street-level retail floorspace surveys in recent years.

Homemaker centres

Where homemaker centres have provided tenancy listings to the Large Format Retail Directory (prepared by Deep End Services), this data is used to generate an accurate measurement of specialty retailing occurring within these centres.

Where LFR Directory data is not available the same methods are used as for strip shopping centres: measurements and estimates from Google Earth Pro and Google Streetview combined with other data sources such as internet sites, directory boards and so on.

Highway precincts

The LFR Directory includes measurements of retail floorspace (Large format and Specialty) for a small number of defined Large format retail precincts at Auburn (Parramatta Road), Castle Hill and Penrith. This data incorporates Specialty (ie non-LFR) retail floorspace in these precincts.

For other highway precincts floorspace estimates are based on available information held by Deep End Services (eg from retail clients) and the use of Google Earth Pro and Streetview as described above.

Industrial precincts

Specialty retail floorspace in industrial precincts is based on a combination of the following:

• Examination of Deep End Services’ geocoded retail business database to determine those retail businesses located within industrial zones. In these instances, floorspace is generated using data held by Deep End Services (where available) or estimated by applying typical average floorspace for individual types of

businesses (eg an estimate of 120sqm for every café located within an industrial estate).

• For selected industrial areas with more significant retail occupancy (eg Artarmon) a more detailed analysis has been undertaken using Google Earth Pro and Google Streetview as described above.

2.9 Large format retail floorspace

Large format retail floorspace is generally measured or estimated using the process described under Specialty retail in Section 2.8 above, but with greater reliance on information from the LFR Directory (where available) and from floorspace data held by Deep End Services for individual retail clients.

2.10 Data currency

Although the Sydney retail floorspace supply data is presented for 2015, the actual currency of individual estimates varies considerably depending on the sources and methods described above.

Floorspace information for major store operators (department stores, discount department stores and supermarkets) is believed to be current as at November 2015.

Data in the PCA Shopping Centre Directory is compiled over the period October 2014 to February 2015.

Data from the LFR Directory is compiled over the period May 2015 to August 2015.

Data captured using Google Streetview relies on imagery generally from January to June 2014 and from February to July 2015.


Some other sources are slightly older (2013) but an attempt has been made to update for major retail changes.

Data from the City of Sydney Floorspace and Employment Survey is from 2012 but a number of adjustments have been made for known developments since then.

2.11 Data limitations

Every attempt has been made to ensure that the information in the Sydney retail floorspace supply database is as accurate as possible by reducing the possibility of systemic bias during the estimation process.

Nevertheless, in many cases floorspace estimates rely on judgements about whether a business is retail or non-retail, the size of the area likely to be leased, the use or otherwise of upper-level space and so on.

In some instances, the estimates are made in the absence of Streetview or other sources to determine actual use of land, in which case estimates rely on previous experience in similar locations.

The data is best used as an indication of the relative size, distribution and components of retail activity across Sydney, rather than as a detailed measurement of floorspace within individual centres.

Notwithstanding these limitations and qualifications, we are confident that the data is the best estimate that can be made without actually undertaking floorspace surveys in person.

Because the data relies on identifying areas (centres or precincts) in which retail activity is taking place, the likelihood is that it represents an under-estimate of total retail floorspace supply in the Sydney metropolitan region.

This is because there is an amount of retail activity that cannot be collected by the use of Business Zones to identify the location of retail centres for further analysis.

Examples of retail activity that may have been missed in the database includes the following:

• Milk bars and other individual neighbourhood shops within residential areas (required to be 80sqm or less in accordance with the LEP Standard Instrument)

• Showrooms and other retail activity not identified within industrial zones

• Retailing occurring in specific tourist or special use zones (eg Airports)

• Activities occurring in various rural zones, including garden centres and some tourist-related retailing

• Various stand-alone developments with existing use rights

• Retail occurring within office buildings but without any visible presence from the street (using Google Streetview)

• Service stations and fast food outlets occurring along highways and main roads and not within business zones.

The total retail floorspace estimates presented in Section 3 includes an allowance of 5% of total retail floorspace associated with these and other examples of retailing not captured in the database.

It is assumed that this 5% of ‘missed’ floorspace applies equally in all local government areas other than the City of Sydney where it is assumed that the Floorspace and Employment Survey captured all retail activity.

The missed floorspace is assumed to be either Specialty or Large format retailing, but no attempt is made to distribute to either of these retailer categories.


3. SYDNEY RETAIL PROVISION

3.1 Summary of results

A total of 10.3 million sqm of retail floorspace has been coded to individual centres in metropolitan Sydney or is located within the City of Sydney.

This represents average provision of 2.25 sqm per capita.

An additional 0.46 million sqm is assumed to have been missed during the estimation process, representing 5% of total floorspace for all local government areas other than the City of Sydney.

Overall total retail floorspace located within the Sydney Metropolitan Area is estimated at 10.76 million sqm in 2015, at an average provision rate of 2.35 sqm per capita.

The interim estimates produced during Stage 1 were for total floorspace of 11.07 million sqm.

The total centre-based floorspace estimated during Stage 2 is therefore within approximately 6% of the ‘top-down’ estimate produced in Stage 1.

With the inclusion of a 5% balancing item to account for un-measured floorspace, the Stage 2 estimates are within approximately 2% of the previous Stage 1 results.

3.2 Total retail provision by retailer type

Total floorspace provision for the Sydney Metropolitan Area averages 2.35 sqm/capita, as set out in Table 2 which also provides a breakdown by retailer type.

Retail floorspace data from the ABS Retail Census in 1991/2 shows that the average per capita floorspace provision rate was 1.85 sqm/capita at that time. The average per capita retail provision rate has therefore increased by 1.0% per year since 1992, which is broadly in line with results in other major cities where data is available, including Adelaide (1.6% pa between 1992 and 2007) and Perth (1.0% pa between 1992 and 2008).

Total retail provision for 2015 is 6% higher than the provision rate of 2.2 sqm/capita that is often quoted when undertaking retail planning studies. However, many consultants have suspected that average floorspace provision is higher than the quoted figure.

Table 2: Retail floorspace provision by type, Sydney 2015

Retailer typeFloorspace

('000sqm)

Av. provision

(sqm/cap)

Distribution

(%)

Department stores 513.6 0.11 4.8%

Discount department stores 571.7 0.12 5.3%

Supermarkets (≥ 1,000sqm) 1,049.8 0.23 9.8%

Specialty stores 5,257.1 1.15 48.9%

Large format retail 2,907.4 0.63 27.0%

Total centre-based 10,299.7 2.25 95.7%

Non-centres 459.3 0.10 4.3%

Total estimated floorspace 10,759.0 2.35 100.0%


Figure 4: Retail floorspace provision in Sydney Metropolitan Region


3.3 Retail provision by District

Retail provision for each District by type is summarised in Table 3, with the resulting provision rates presented in Table 4.

The analysis is based on the most recent NSW Government population projections.

Average retail provision rates vary from a high of 3.47 sqm/cap in the Central District (containing the Sydney CBD, Bondi Junction and other concentrations), to a low of 1.93 sqm/cap in the South District.

The variation in supermarket floorspace provision rates reflect the general difficulty in finding sites in inner metropolitan districts, as well as the greater diversity in alternative food specialty shopping.

By contrast, specialty retail provision rates are higher in the inner city districts reflecting the greater spending on non-food comparison shopping among other factors.

Large format retail provision rates are on average higher in outer districts where land can more readily be assembled for larger stores, although provision rates also reflect the location of specific large format retail precincts such as Parramatta Road Auburn and Artarmon.

Table 3: Retail floorspace summary by District, 2015

Table 4: Retail floorspace provision rate summary by District, 2015

District Dept store

Disc dept

store

Smkt

(>1000sqm) Specialty

Large

format Total

Non-

centre TotalCentral District 161.8 83.6 172.1 1,940.2 633.1 2,990.9 74.6 3,065.5North District 147.6 81.8 208.5 963.5 416.5 1,818.0 95.7 1,913.6South District 60.5 73.0 122.5 542.8 364.5 1,163.3 61.2 1,224.5South West District 31.0 109.8 187.8 626.9 491.0 1,446.4 76.1 1,522.5West District 20.1 43.7 96.8 307.0 239.8 707.3 37.2 744.6West Central District 92.5 179.8 262.2 876.8 762.5 2,173.8 114.4 2,288.2

Total Sydney Metropolitan Region 513.6 571.7 1,049.8 5,257.1 2,907.4 10,299.7 459.3 10,759.0

Floorspace ('000 sqm)

District Dept store

Disc dept

store

Smkt


Large

format Total

Non-

centre TotalCentral District 0.18 0.09 0.20 2.20 0.72 3.39 0.08 3.47North District 0.16 0.09 0.23 1.06 0.46 2.00 0.11 2.11South District 0.10 0.11 0.19 0.85 0.57 1.83 0.10 1.93South West District 0.05 0.16 0.27 0.91 0.71 2.10 0.11 2.21West District 0.06 0.13 0.28 0.89 0.70 2.06 0.11 2.17West Central District 0.08 0.16 0.23 0.78 0.67 1.92 0.10 2.02

Total Sydney Metropolitan Region 0.11 0.12 0.23 1.15 0.63 2.25 0.10 2.35

Average retail floorspace provision (sqm/capita)


3.4 Retail provision by LGA

Retail floorspace within individual LGAs is presented in Table 5, with the resulting average provision rates shown in Table 6.

Differences in the provision rate for LGAs are much wider because they are influenced by the location of individual centres.

Municipalities with very low provision rates include Ku-ring-gai, Kogarah and Randwick.

High provision rates include Sydney as well as Willoughby, Botany Bay, Auburn and Burwood.

Table 5: Retail floorspace summary by LGA 2015

LGA Dept store

Disc dept

store

Smkt


Large

format Total

Non-

centre TotalAshfield (A) 0.0 7.3 10.7 48.6 19.3 85.9 4.5 90.4Auburn (C) 0.0 7.2 12.9 79.9 144.1 244.1 12.8 256.9Bankstown (C) 10.2 39.0 41.2 149.9 83.5 323.8 17.0 340.8Blacktown (C) 10.6 51.1 74.4 226.8 266.2 629.1 33.1 662.2Blue Mountains (C) 0.0 4.7 16.7 71.2 11.1 103.7 5.5 109.2Botany Bay (C) 11.6 25.5 22.7 86.2 16.6 162.7 8.6 171.3Burwood (A) 14.7 12.1 11.1 82.0 10.0 129.8 6.8 136.6Camden (A) 0.0 6.5 30.4 51.8 49.3 137.9 7.3 145.2Campbelltown (C) 12.2 38.1 53.8 151.6 129.1 384.8 20.3 405.0Canada Bay (A) 0.0 3.8 15.7 80.1 31.1 130.6 6.9 137.5Canterbury (C) 24.1 15.8 18.8 156.6 112.2 327.5 17.2 344.7Fairfield (C) 0.0 35.2 47.7 203.9 124.3 411.0 21.6 432.6Hawkesbury (C) 0.0 6.7 23.9 63.4 57.3 151.3 8.0 159.3Holroyd (C) 0.0 21.3 29.1 80.9 23.6 155.0 8.2 163.2Hornsby (A) 27.1 19.2 42.5 126.9 54.9 270.5 14.2 284.7Hunters Hill (A) 0.0 0.0 2.5 16.1 0.7 19.4 1.0 20.4Hurstville (C) 0.0 18.2 25.6 88.4 36.4 168.6 8.9 177.5Kogarah (C) 0.0 0.0 5.6 35.8 19.2 60.6 3.2 63.8Ku-ring-gai (A) 0.0 0.0 14.1 80.8 14.8 109.7 5.8 115.5Lane Cove (A) 0.0 0.0 8.1 27.2 1.5 36.8 1.9 38.7Leichhardt (A) 0.0 4.0 12.2 65.1 13.0 94.2 5.0 99.2Liverpool (C) 18.8 30.0 44.4 180.3 181.8 455.2 24.0 479.2Manly (A) 0.0 0.0 14.0 52.9 51.1 118.0 6.2 124.2Marrickville (A) 0.0 7.5 11.6 147.7 64.6 231.4 12.2 243.6Mosman (A) 0.0 0.0 1.5 40.2 5.7 47.3 2.5 49.8North Sydney (A) 0.0 0.0 17.7 152.1 40.3 210.1 11.1 221.1Parramatta (C) 41.2 15.0 36.3 180.5 82.3 355.3 18.7 374.0Penrith (C) 20.1 32.3 56.2 172.4 171.3 452.3 23.8 476.1Pittwater (A) 0.0 8.1 20.0 78.7 14.1 120.9 6.4 127.2Randwick (C) 0.0 0.0 14.1 115.2 17.0 146.3 7.7 154.0Rockdale (C) 0.0 9.5 16.2 79.4 66.0 171.1 9.0 180.1Ryde (C) 36.3 23.3 37.5 127.9 48.1 273.1 14.4 287.5Strathfield (A) 0.0 0.0 2.5 68.9 49.7 121.1 6.4 127.5Sutherland Shire (A) 36.5 29.5 56.3 182.6 130.7 435.5 22.9 458.5Sydney (C) 98.6 11.6 48.9 1,028.6 385.0 1,572.7 0.0 1,572.7The Hills Shire (A) 30.6 46.1 68.2 158.8 162.8 466.5 24.6 491.0Warringah (A) 41.6 16.0 37.0 137.9 100.2 332.7 17.5 350.2Waverley (A) 36.9 11.9 14.1 135.1 18.6 216.6 11.4 228.0Willoughby (C) 42.7 15.2 13.6 122.9 85.2 279.6 14.7 294.3Wollondilly (A) 0.0 0.0 11.6 39.4 6.5 57.5 3.0 60.5Woollahra (A) 0.0 0.0 8.6 82.6 8.3 99.5 5.2 104.7

Total Sydney Metropolitan Region 513.6 571.7 1,049.8 5,257.1 2,907.4 10,299.7 459.3 10,759.0

Floorspace ('000 sqm)


Table 6: Retail floorspace provision rate summary by LGA, 2015

LGA Dept store

Disc dept

store

Smkt


Large

format Total

Non-

centre TotalAshfield (A) 0.00 0.16 0.24 1.09 0.43 1.93 0.10 2.03Auburn (C) 0.00 0.08 0.15 0.91 1.64 2.77 0.15 2.92Bankstown (C) 0.05 0.19 0.20 0.74 0.41 1.59 0.08 1.68Blacktown (C) 0.03 0.15 0.22 0.67 0.78 1.85 0.10 1.95Blue Mountains (C) 0.00 0.06 0.21 0.89 0.14 1.30 0.07 1.37Botany Bay (C) 0.25 0.55 0.49 1.85 0.36 3.49 0.18 3.68Burwood (A) 0.41 0.33 0.31 2.27 0.28 3.59 0.19 3.78Camden (A) 0.00 0.09 0.42 0.72 0.68 1.91 0.10 2.01Campbelltown (C) 0.08 0.24 0.34 0.95 0.81 2.42 0.13 2.55Canada Bay (A) 0.00 0.04 0.18 0.90 0.35 1.47 0.08 1.55Canterbury (C) 0.16 0.10 0.12 1.03 0.74 2.16 0.11 2.27Fairfield (C) 0.00 0.17 0.23 1.00 0.61 2.01 0.11 2.12Hawkesbury (C) 0.00 0.10 0.36 0.96 0.87 2.29 0.12 2.41Holroyd (C) 0.00 0.19 0.26 0.71 0.21 1.37 0.07 1.44Hornsby (A) 0.16 0.11 0.25 0.74 0.32 1.59 0.08 1.67Hunters Hill (A) 0.00 0.00 0.17 1.09 0.05 1.31 0.07 1.38Hurstville (C) 0.00 0.21 0.30 1.02 0.42 1.95 0.10 2.05Kogarah (C) 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.58 0.31 0.99 0.05 1.04Ku-ring-gai (A) 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.66 0.12 0.89 0.05 0.94Lane Cove (A) 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.76 0.04 1.02 0.05 1.08Leichhardt (A) 0.00 0.07 0.21 1.11 0.22 1.60 0.08 1.69Liverpool (C) 0.09 0.15 0.22 0.88 0.89 2.23 0.12 2.34Manly (A) 0.00 0.00 0.31 1.17 1.13 2.60 0.14 2.74Marrickville (A) 0.00 0.09 0.14 1.75 0.77 2.75 0.14 2.89Mosman (A) 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.32 0.19 1.55 0.08 1.63North Sydney (A) 0.00 0.00 0.24 2.09 0.55 2.89 0.15 3.05Parramatta (C) 0.21 0.08 0.19 0.93 0.42 1.83 0.10 1.92Penrith (C) 0.10 0.16 0.28 0.87 0.87 2.29 0.12 2.41Pittwater (A) 0.00 0.13 0.31 1.23 0.22 1.88 0.10 1.98Randwick (C) 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.79 0.12 1.00 0.05 1.06Rockdale (C) 0.00 0.09 0.15 0.72 0.60 1.56 0.08 1.64Ryde (C) 0.31 0.20 0.32 1.09 0.41 2.33 0.12 2.45Strathfield (A) 0.00 0.00 0.06 1.72 1.24 3.02 0.16 3.18Sutherland Shire (A) 0.16 0.13 0.25 0.81 0.58 1.93 0.10 2.03Sydney (C) 0.48 0.06 0.24 5.01 1.88 7.66 0.00 7.66The Hills Shire (A) 0.16 0.24 0.35 0.83 0.85 2.43 0.13 2.55Warringah (A) 0.27 0.10 0.24 0.88 0.64 2.12 0.11 2.24Waverley (A) 0.51 0.16 0.19 1.86 0.26 2.98 0.16 3.14Willoughby (C) 0.56 0.20 0.18 1.61 1.12 3.66 0.19 3.85Wollondilly (A) 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.82 0.14 1.20 0.06 1.26Woollahra (A) 0.00 0.00 0.15 1.39 0.14 1.68 0.09 1.77

Total Sydney Metropolitan Region 0.11 0.12 0.23 1.15 0.63 2.25 0.10 2.35

Average retail floorspace provision (sqm/capita)


3.5 Retail demand projections

Projections of retail floorspace demand over the period 2015 to 2031 have been generated by applying future changes in average per capita provision rates to the official NSW Government population projections by LGA, updated to account for more recent ABS population estimates. Local factors affecting retail provision at the LGA level have not been incorporated into this analysis.

Because of the uncertainty in making these long term forecasts, a range of projections are presented as Low, Medium and High series, with the annual growth rates in average per capita floorspace provision under the Low and High series varying by ±25%.

Comparison of the 2015 estimated retail floorspace supply against ABS Retail Census data for 1991/2 shows that average per capita retail provision has increased over the last 23 years at an average rate of approximately 1.0% per annum, which is generally consistent with data from other cities such as Adelaide and Perth.

Per capita retail floorspace growth has been most pronounced for supermarkets (2.4% pa) and large format retailing (2.3% pa), reflecting changes in the structure of these retail sectors.

There are various reasons why the average per capita provision rate is unlikely to grow as rapidly in the future:

• Significant structural adjustments have occurred in the retail industry since 1992, including the emergence of homemaker centres containing LFR tenancies in large floorspace units, and a general increase in the preferred size of supermarkets. Similar structural adjustments in the future can’t be foreseen at this time.

• The redevelopment of former industrial land in inner suburban locations for retail development has helped to

expand the average provision rate, but this trend is unlikely to occur to the same extent in the future.

• Regulatory reform, including the removal of weekend trading restrictions, has fuelled growth in retail provision, but there are fewer remaining reforms that are likely to generate a similar stimulus.

• There is now greater competition for disposable income from other activities such as overseas holidays and other non-retail entertainment.

• Long term income growth is forecast to be lower than the historical average, with the implication being a downward effect on growth in disposable income.

• The ageing of the population, including a significant increase in retirees as a proportion of the population, would be likely to reduce the growth in average per capita retail provision.

• A share of retail expenditure is now being directed online where it doesn’t support ‘bricks and mortar’ retail premises, although there will be some demand for distribution warehouses, pick-up points and other physical space, some of which may be located within commercial centres.

Further analysis has been undertaken to assess the potential impact of online retailing on average per capita retail provision. This analysis is based on the share of online retailing increasing from the current rate of approximately 6.5% according to the most recent NAB Online Sales Index, to a figure of 15% over the longer term.

The effect of online retailing is likely to be most pronounced on floorspace demand for LFR and specialty floorspace, as these retailer types trade in goods and services that are experiencing the most significant growth in online sales.

As a result, the Medium retail demand projection series applies a lower growth rate in average per capita retail

demand over the projection period, and in particular for specialty retailing and the LFR sector (refer Table 7).

Table 7: Growth in average retail provision (Medium series)

The growth rate in average per capita retail provision rate for the City of Sydney has been reduced further to account for the fact that a large share of retail supply in this region is generated by incoming workers rather than local residents.

Under the Medium series, 4.28 million sqm of new retail floorspace will be required over the period 2015 to 2031 to satisfy projected demand, representing an average of 267,000 sqm of new retail floorspace to be accommodated each year. By 2031 total retail demand is projected to be a total of 15.03 million sqm, having increased from the current estimated provision of 10.76 million sqm as shown in Table 9. Tables 8 and 10 summarise the projections under the Low and High series, respectively.

Average per capita provision is projected to increase from 2.35 sqm per capita in 2015 to 2.50 sqm/capita in 2026 and 2.56 sqm/capita in 2031 under the Medium projection.

The largest contributions to retail demand will be generated in the West Central District where significant new population growth is anticipated, and in the Central District which serves much of the metropolitan area and tourist visitors.

Retail type 1992 2015 2031 '92 - '15 '15 - '31

Dept. & disc. dept. stores 0.27 0.24 0.22 -0.56% -0.41%

Supermarkets1 0.13 0.23 0.29 2.40% 1.49%

Large format retail 0.37 0.63 0.75 2.32% 1.10%

Specialty retail2 1.08 1.25 1.30 0.64% 0.25%

Total retail 1.85 2.35 2.56 1.03% 0.56%

Sqm per capita Growth (% pa)

Notes: 1 estimated floorspace for smkts ≥1,000sqm; 2 includes 'non-centre' floorspace


Table 8: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to 2031 (LOW projection)

District/LGA 2015 2021 2026 2031 15-21 21-26 26-31 15-31

Central District 3,066 3,372 3,605 3,827 307 232 222 761Ashfield (A) 90 101 109 116 11 8 8 26Botany Bay (C) 171 188 208 226 17 20 17 54Burwood (A) 137 154 170 183 18 15 13 46Canada Bay (A) 138 158 174 188 20 16 15 51Leichhardt (A) 99 108 117 125 9 8 8 26Marrickville (A) 244 270 294 319 26 24 25 75Randwick (C) 154 171 184 198 17 13 14 44Strathfield (A) 127 153 167 179 26 14 12 52Sydney (C) 1,573 1,712 1,805 1,892 140 92 88 319Waverley (A) 228 243 256 270 15 13 14 42Woollahra (A) 105 113 121 130 9 8 8 25

North District 1,914 2,119 2,296 2,477 205 178 180 563Hornsby (A) 285 311 335 360 26 24 25 75Hunters Hill (A) 20 23 24 26 2 2 2 6Ku-ring-gai (A) 116 130 142 154 15 12 11 38Lane Cove (A) 39 44 49 54 5 5 6 15Manly (A) 124 138 151 165 14 13 14 41Mosman (A) 50 54 58 62 4 4 4 12North Sydney (A) 221 247 267 289 26 20 21 67Pittwater (A) 127 142 154 168 15 12 15 41Ryde (C) 287 325 361 399 38 35 38 111Warringah (A) 350 381 408 431 31 26 24 81Willoughby (C) 294 323 348 370 29 24 22 75

South District 1,225 1,356 1,469 1,582 131 114 113 358Canterbury (C) 345 379 411 444 35 32 33 99Hurstville (C) 177 199 217 234 22 18 17 57Kogarah (C) 64 72 79 86 8 7 8 22Rockdale (C) 180 203 220 239 23 18 18 59Sutherland Shire (A) 458 503 542 579 45 39 37 120

South West District 1,523 1,803 2,051 2,296 280 249 245 774Camden (A) 145 211 274 347 66 63 73 202Campbelltown (C) 405 477 530 583 72 53 53 178Fairfield (C) 433 478 519 554 45 41 35 122Liverpool (C) 479 569 654 731 90 85 77 252Wollondilly (A) 61 68 74 81 7 6 7 20

West Central District 2,288 2,671 3,020 3,382 383 348 362 1,094Auburn (C) 257 314 366 420 57 52 54 163Bankstown (C) 341 378 412 443 37 34 31 102Blacktown (C) 662 781 889 1,010 119 107 121 347Holroyd (C) 163 183 199 216 20 16 17 53Parramatta (C) 374 427 476 529 53 49 52 155The Hills Shire (A) 491 588 678 764 97 90 87 273

West District 745 849 938 1,033 105 89 95 288Blue Mountains (C) 109 120 130 141 11 10 11 32Hawkesbury (C) 159 178 194 212 18 17 18 53Penrith (C) 476 551 613 679 75 61 66 203

Sydney Metropolitan Area 10,759 12,170 13,379 14,597 1,411 1,209 1,218 3,838

Retail floorspace demand ('000 sqm) Additional retail requirement ('000 sqm)


Table 9: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to 2031 (MEDIUM projection)

District/LGA 2015 2021 2026 2031 15-21 21-26 26-31 15-31










Table 10: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to 2031 (HIGH projection)

District/LGA 2015 2021 2026 2031 15-21 21-26 26-31 15-31










4. SUPERMARKET ACCESSIBILITY

Figure 5 on the following page shows the amount of supermarket floorspace accessible within a 5-minute off-peak drive-time of each ABS-defined small Statistical Area (SA1).

The areas shaded blue and green have low rates of supermarket accessibility from place of residence compared to areas with orange and red shading which have either larger or more numerous supermarket options close to home.

The analysis shows that high supermarket provision rates exist close to major centres where a number of major supermarkets are located, and more generally in outer suburban areas where road congestion is lower and centres are planned with sufficient land to accommodate full-line supermarkets.

Low supermarket provision rates exist in parts of the inner city (for example around Randwick) where roads are more congested and where new supermarket development is difficult to achieve having regard to the availability of land or the cost of development.

Further out, low supermarket provision occurs throughout many North Shore suburbs on either side of the Pacific Highway where full line supermarkets are sparser and residents are required to do much of their shopping at smaller stores.

Other areas of low provision include:

• The inner west suburbs around Campsie and Kingsgrove

• The area between Parramatta, Liverpool and Bankstown

• Between Epping and Castle Hill.


Figure 5: Supermarket accessibility analysis

This publication was prepared for the NSW Department of ... demand and supply consultancy – Stage...

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