The$commercial$foodservice$industry'smost$definitive...

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4 Star Representatives Inc. Gabriel Group, Inc.Acosta Cornerstone Gibbs & Associates, Inc. Preferred Marketing GroupAdams Marketing & Sales GMV Sales Premier Marketing GroupAdvanced Culinary Systems Griffin Marketing Group, Inc. Premier Marketing Group, Inc.Advantage Marketing Group Hanna-‐Young & Assoc., Inc. Pro/Line Marketing, Inc.

Apex Commercial Kitchen Co. Hatch Jennings, Inc.Apex Marketing High Sabatino Associates Professional RepsARB Sales and Marketing HODAK Sales Pro-‐Pacific Agents, Inc.

B Square Enterprises Hollander CompanyBarringer High Country Marketing, Inc. Hospitality Reps Inc. R. Henry & AssociatesBauer Marketing Group, Inc. HRI, Inc. Rabco Foodservice LimitedBeacon Sales Group LLC Integra Marketing, Inc. Raleigh W. Johnson & CompanyBethco Agencies Ltd. Intermountain Food Equipment Redco Foodservice Equipment, LLCBob Waite & Associates Jackson And Associates, Inc Rep Concepts LLCBowerman Marketing Group John Calarese & Co., Inc. Schmid-‐Dewland AssociatesBrittan Associates Johnson Commercial Agents Searles Associates, Inc.

BSE Marketing Johnson Pike & Associates, Inc.

BWA Reps, Inc. Kain-‐McArthur Inc.

C. R. Peterson Associates, Inc. Kaufmann & AssociatesCarman-‐Girard Associates KBC Specialty Products, Inc.Charles L. Burton Associates Kelly-‐Mincks stage KOLSTAD associates, Inc.Chernoff Sales, Inc. Ken W. Thomson Associates Ltd. Stiefel Associates, Inc.Chesher Equipment, Ltd. KLH Marketing, Inc. TD Marketing Company, Inc.Chrane Foodservice Solutions Koehler-‐Borden & Associates, Inc. Tepper & Associates, Inc.Clark, Malone & Associates, Inc. Lake Effect Sales & Marketing The 2Market Group, Inc.Clemens Profit Group Lehr McKeown Marketing, Inc. The Burlis-‐Lawson GroupClements-‐Stella-‐Gallagher Marketing Link2 Hospitality Solutions The Fischer GroupCLV Marketing Lobo Reps. International, LLC The Hansen GroupCollis Group, Inc. Lund-‐Iorio, Inc. The Redstone GroupCommercial Kitchen Reps, Inc. MAC Sales & Marketing LTD. The Wallin Group, Inc.Copperfield Agencies Limited Main Street Marketing The YES GroupCowan Associates Marjon & Associates, Inc. Thormann AssociatesD.L.T. Sales, Inc. Marketing Agents South, Inc. TLC Marketing Inc.Dave Swain Associates, Inc. Master Marketing Total Source Equipment & SupplyDavis & Associates, Inc. Maxwell-‐McKenney Inc. Total Tabletop PlusDRC Marketing Group McGirr, Inc. Tri-‐State Marketing AssociatesE J Reps, Inc. Megcour Foodservice Inc. Vader & Landgraf, Inc.EasyBar of Minnesota, Inc. Midwest Professional Reps, Inc. Velkey & AssociatesEaton Marketing Associates, Inc. Miller & Associates Voeller & Associates, Inc.Elevation Rep's of the Rockies Mirkovich & Associates, Inc. W. D. Colledge Co., Ltd.Equipment Preference, Inc. (E.P.I.) Mirkovich & Associates, Inc. Walter Zebrowski AssociatesEquipment Solutions, Inc. monobloc LLC, Inc WB Marketing LLCe-‐Qwip Nick Mavro & Associates, LLC West Coast Food Service MarketingE-‐Source, Inc. North Star Agency, LLC Wiczek Marketing Inc.Ettinger-‐Rosini & Associates, Inc. ONE SOURCE William Horn & AssociatesFinn Marketing Group Paglio & Associates, Inc. Woolsey & Associates, Inc.Florida Agents, Inc. PB & J Commercial Agents Wyllie Marketing

Pecinka Ferri Associates YBR Marketing, Inc.Food Service Systems Performance Food Equipment Group, Inc. York Hospitality & Gaming, Inc.Foodservice Equipment Agents, LLC Performance Reps Northwest, Inc. Young Equipment Solutions, Inc.Forbes, Hever & Wallace, Inc. Permul Ltd. Zink Foodservice Group

The commercial foodservice industry's most definitive non-‐food sales/trend indicatorQ4/2015 Foodservice Business Barometer Report

Many thanks to the firms that participated in this quarter's MAFSI Business Barometer:

Food Equipment Sales & Marketing Agents, Inc. (FESMA)

Southwest Foodservice Equipment Marketing

Specialized Marketing of Wisconsin

Posternak Bauer Aitkenhead Cantamessa

Specialty Equipment Sales Company

Shamrock Foodservice Equipment Reps. Inc

Professional Manufacturers Representatives, Inc. (PMR)

Pro-‐Quip Foodservice Equipment & Supplies


2015 vs. 2014

Q1/16 vs. Q1/154.3%

Q4/2015 Foodservice Business Barometer Report

Foodservice E&S Outperforms Q4 Forecast: Market is Cautious for Q1/16The market for Foodservice Equipment and Supplies finished the year strong with a Q4/15 performance of +4.9% overall,which outperformed the forecast for the quarter of +4.3%.

Sales varied by region, led by the West at +6.9%, Midwest +5.6%, South +4.3%, Northeast +4.2% and Canada, which trailed at a paltry +1.%. By product type, Equipment grew +5.1%, Tabletop +4.7%, Supply +4.0% and Furniture +2.8%.

For Q1/16, reps are forecasting more moderate growth of +4.3%. "Quoting Activity" remains healthy at 54% quoting more while 45% are reporting "Busier Consultants".

At the recent Arizona MAFSI conference, which had record attendance, Reps and Manufacturers alike were very positive about future business prospects, even as the stock market was tanking and oil prices were setting ten year lows. In short, the Foodservice Market is outperforming the economy as a whole, as both a low unemployment rate of 4.9% and falling gasoline prices benefit restaurant sales.

Qtrly Sales Forecast for North America 4th Quarter 2015Overall Sales for North America

Furthermore, if we are in fact facing an economic slowdown, it takes longer for equipment sales to be affected given extensive planning cycles.

After an 8 year Foodservice expansion, the stock market may be signaling a turning point for the industry. However let's recall the words of the Nobel Prize-‐winning economist Paul Samuelson: "Wall Street has successfully predicted 9 of the past 5 recessions."

Let's hope they're wrong again.

Executive Summary written by Michael R. PosternakPBACEastchester, New [email protected]

Q4/2015 vs. Q4/2014 (Oct 1 -‐ Dec 31)

The commercial foodservice industry's most definitive non-‐food sales/trend indicator

54% 12% 34%

Yearly Sales Forecast for North America2016 vs. 2015

Quoting Activity for Q4/15 vs. Q3/15

4.5% 4.1%

More Less No Change

Consultant Activity for Q4/15 vs. Q3/15More Less No Change45% 10% 45%

*The overall industry sales growth is calculated using a weighted average based on the percentage of the total sales volume for the overall industry represented by the various sales categories: Equipment (77%), Supplies (6%), Tabletop (11%), and Furnishings (6%). Market numbers are based on the North American Association of Food Equipment Manufacturers (NAFEM) biennial “Size & Shape of the Industry” study.

-‐15%

-‐10%

-‐5%

0%

5%

10%

Q2/02

Q3/02

Q4/02

Q1/03

Q2/03

Q3/03

Q4/03

Q1/04

Q2/04

Q3/04

Q4/04

Q1/05

Q2/05

Q3/05

Q4/05

Q1/06

Q2/06

Q3/06

Q4/06

Q1/07

Q2/07

Q3/07

Q4/07

Q1/08

Q2/08

Q3/08

Q4/08

Q1/09

Q2/09

Q3/09

Q4/09

Q1/10

Q2/10

Q3/10

Q4/10

Q1/11

Q2/11

Q3/11

Q4/11

Q1/12

Q2/12

Q3/12

Q4/12

Q1/13

Q2/13

Q3/13

Q4/13

Q1/14

Q2/14

Q3/14

Q4/14

Q1/15

Q2/15

Q3/15

Q4/15

Q1/16

Percen

tage Change from

Co

mparable Quarter of P

rior Y

ear

Overall Commercial Foodservice Sales Per Quarter for North America Foodservice E&S Outperforms Q4 Forecast

Actual

Forecast

2002-‐2016 2002-‐2016 2002-‐2016 2002-‐2016 2002-‐2016

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Equipment Supply Tabletop Furniture Overall

5.1%

4.0%

4.7%

2.8%

4.9%

Percen

tage Change


Northeast South Midwest West Canada

5.0% 3.8% 4.1% 5.2% 2.6%

Northeast South Midwest West Canada

3.9% 4.4% 5.0% 5.0% 3.4%

NORTHEAST includes the states:CT, DC, DE, MA, MD, ME, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VA, VTSOUTH includes the states:AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, OK, SC, TN, TXMIDWEST includes the states:IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, ND, NE, OH, W. PA, SD, WI, WVWEST includes the states:AK, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, OR, NM, NV, UT, WA, WYCANADA includes all provinces and territories in Canada.

1st Quarter 2016 compared to 1st Quarter 2015 (Jan 1 -‐ Mar 31)

The commerical foodservice industry's most definitive non-‐food sales/trend indicatorQ4/2015 Foodservice Business Barometer Report

Q1/16 vs. Q1/15 Sales Percentage Change Forecast by Region

2016 vs. 2015 Overall Sales Forecast by RegionCompared to Overall Sales for 2015Oct 1 -‐ Dec 31 compared to 4th Quarter 2009

4th Quarter 2015 Sales Percentage Change by Region4th Quarter 2015 compared to 4th Quarter 2014 (Oct 1 -‐ Dec 31)

*The overall industry sales growth is calculated using a weighted average based on the percentage of the total sales volume for the overall industry represented by the various sales categories: Equipment (77%), Supplies (6%), Tabletop (11%), and Furnishings (6%). Market numbers are based on the North American Association of Food Equipment Manufacturers (NAFEM) biennial “Size & Shape of the Industry” study.

-‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%


4.4% 4.9% 3.5%

2.1%

4.2%

Northeast

-‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10% 12%


5.9% 4.5% 4.4% 4.5%

5.6%

Midwest

-‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%


4.5% 4.1% 5.7%

-‐0.5%

4.3%

South

-‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10% 12%


7.4%

2.5%

7.2%

4.3%

6.9%

West

-‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%


0.2%

2.8% 2.8% 5.0%

1.0%

Canada


NORTHEAST includes the states:CT, DC, DE, MA, MD, ME, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VA, VTSOUTH includes the states:AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, OK, SC, TN, TXMIDWEST includes the states:IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, ND, NE, OH, W. PA, SD, WI, WVWEST includes the states:AK, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, OR, NM, NV, UT, WA, WYCANADA includes all provinces and territories in Canada.

Equipment Sub-‐Categories Sales Percent Change by Region4th Quarter 2015 compared to 4th Quarter 2014 (Oct 1 -‐ Dec 31)

The commercial foodservice industry's most definitive non-‐food sales/trend indicatorQ4/2015 Equipment Sub-‐Categories Business Barometer

Equipment Sub-‐Categories Sales Percent Change1st Quarter 2015 vs. 1st Quarter 20144th Quarter 2015 vs. 4th Quarter 2014

*The equipment sub-‐category sales growth is calculated using a weighted average based on the percentage of the equipment sub-‐category sales volume represented by the various sales categories: Primary Cooking (26%), Refrigeration/Ice Machines (32%), Storage/Handling (9%), Serving (16%), Food Prep (7%), Warewashing (10%) from the (NAFEM) biennial “Size & Shape of the Industry” study. Ventilation not weighted.

PLEASE NOTE: The Business Barometer Report is compiled for the exclusive use of the participating companies and MAFSI members. Oral or written disclosure or publication of the confidential aggregate report, in whole or in part, by the participating companies or MAFSI staff to anyone other than authorized participating companies is expressly prohibited.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Primary Cooking Equip.

Refrig./ Ice Mach.

Storage/ Handling Equip.

Serving Equip.

Food Prep. Equip.

Washing/ Sanit. Equip.

Venqlaqon Equipment

5.3% 5.8%

4.4% 4.4% 5.1% 4.5%

5.4%

Percen

tage Change

-‐8% -‐6% -‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10%


Refrig./ Ice Mach.


Serving Equip.

Food Prep. Equip.


Venqlaqon Equipment

5.6% 5.4%

2.8% 3.7% 2.8% 1.5%

4.4%

Northeast

-‐8% -‐6% -‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%


Refrig./ Ice Mach.


Serving Equip.

Food Prep. Equip.


Venqlaqon Equipment

6.1% 6.6% 4.9%

5.9% 5.7% 4.1%

6.4%

Midwest

-‐8% -‐6% -‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10%


Refrig./ Ice Mach.


Serving Equip.

Food Prep. Equip.


Venqlaqon Equipment

5.8%

2.8%

6.5%

3.9% 5.7% 4.9% 4.2%

South

-‐8% -‐6% -‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10%


Refrig./ Ice Mach.


Serving Equip.

Food Prep. Equip.


Venqlaqon Equipment

8.6% 8.8%

3.4% 4.4% 5.6%

8.9% 7.9% West

-‐8% -‐6% -‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10%


Refrig./ Ice Mach.


Serving Equip.

Food Prep. Equip.


Venqlaqon Equipment

-‐6.0%

5.3%

0.8%

-‐1.2%

6.9%

-‐1.7%

1.7%

Canada


Primary Cooking Equipment

Refrigeration & Ice Machines

Storage & Handling Equipment

Serving Equipment

Bins, Bus/Tote Boxes, Cabinets, Carts, Conveyor Systems, Covers, Dispensers (non-food), Dollies, Food & Ingredient Canisters & Containers, Hand Trucks/Utility Trucks, Racks, Receiving Scales, Shelving, Tables (Standard Work Tables not Custom Fabricated) (Bakers, Cooks, Makeup, Prep, Etc.)

Beverage Dispensers, Carving Stations, Coffee Equipment, Food Dispensers, Food Shields, Merchandisers, Salad Bars/Tabletop Food Bars, Serving/Buffet Lines, Serving Carts, Soup Kettles/Servers, Steam Tables/Hot-Food Tables/Bain Marie, Tea Brewers, Warmers

Bar Supplies, Buffetware, Can Openers, Cleaning Tools, Colanders, Cookware, Cutting Boards, Knives/Cutlery Blocks/Sharpeners, Mixing Bowls, Pans, Storage, Thermometers/Temperature Monitoring, Textiles (Kitchen), Utensils (Kitchen)

Baskets, Beverage Pitchers/Servers, Buckets (Ice & Wine), Candle Holders/Lamps, Candle & Chafing Fuel, Carafes/Decanters, Chafers, Covers, Dinnerware, Flatware, Glassware/Stemware, Menu Covers, Menu/Message Boards, Salt & Pepper Shakers, Serving Bowls/Plates, Servingware, Trays, Tray Stands

Baby-Changing Stations, Bars (Stationary & Mobile), Benches, Booths, Cabinets, Chairs, Coat Racks, Drive Through Windows, Lamps (Dining/Table), Signs, Patio/Outdoor Heaters, Railings & Railings Fittings, Stools, Tables, Table Bases, Table Cloths, Umbrellas

Braising Pans, Broilers, Charbroilers, Cook-Chill Systems, Fryers, Griddles, Grills, Oil Filtration Systems, Ovens, Panini Grills, Pasta Cookers, Ranges, Rice Cookers, Smokers, Steamers, Tilting Skillets, Toasters

Air Curtains, Blast Chillers, Coolers, Doors, Drop-In Pan Chillers, Freezers, Ice Cream Cabinets, Ice Machines, Refrigeration, Refrigeration Compressors, Condensers & Evaporators, Slush/Smoothie Machines, Soft-Serve Ice Cream/Yogurt Machines, Water Filter Systems

Please note: As of Q3, 2015, “Menu and Message Boards” (previously calculated in Supplies) are now in Tabletop, and “Thermometers and Temperature Monitoring Devices” (previously in Food Preparation Equipment) are now in Supplies.

Food Preparation Equipment

Ventilation

Warewashing & Sanitation Equipment

Business Barometer Category Product List

MAIN CATEGORIES

SUB-CATEGORIES

Equipment

Supplies

Tabletop

Furniture

Food Preparation Equipment, Primary Cooking Equipment, Refrigeration & Ice Machines, Serving Equipment, Storage & Handling Equipment, Ventilation, Warewashing & Sanitation Equipment

Blenders, Breaders, Bread Slicers, Choppers (Dicers, Graters, Peelers, Non-Bread Slicers), Dough Preparation Equipment, Food Processors, Juice Extractors/Juicing Equipment, Meat Saws, Meat Tenderizers/Marinators, Mixers, Mixer Stands & Tables, Popcorn Carts/Machines, Salad/Vegetable Washers & Dryers, Scales, Slicers, Timers

Appliance Connectors, Grease/Exhaust Filters, Grease Interceptors, Fire Suppression Systems/Fire Extinguishers, HVAC - Exhaust Systems, Fans, Utility Distribution Systems, Ventilation & Hoods

Booster Heaters, Brooms, Dusts Mops, etc., Brushes (Equipment Cleaning Brushes, Scouring Pads, etc.), Can & Bottle Crushers, Can Washers, Carpet Sweepers, Vacuums, Floor & Carpet Care Products, Carts (Janitorial), Drainboards, Faucets/Spray Units/Washers/Hoses, Flatware-Handling/Recovery Systems, Floor Troughs & Drains, Mats (Anti-Fatigues, Bar, Rubber, etc.), Mops, Buckets & Pails, Pulpers & De-Water Equipment, Racks (Warewashing/Dishwashing Racks), Sinks, Tables (Dish), Warewashing/Dishwashing Machines, Waste Bins & Recycling Containers, Waste Compactors, Waste Disposal Systems

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