The World Economic DatabaseAlphametrics & UNCTAD

Juan Pizarro Rios, PhDConsultant

Geneva, Switzerlandjpizarro@bluewin.ch

Bangkok, 9 December 2015

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Part 1

The Global Policy ModelAlphametrics & UNCTAD

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United Nations Global Policy Model

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The UN Global Policy Model (GPM) • It is based on the experience of global modeling  of the Department of Applied Economics (DAE) of the  University of Cambridge since the 80s. 

• One of the main authors of DAE’s global modelling work, Francis Cripps (Alphametrics), has been the principal investigator behind all versions of the UN GPM. 

• First version was created by UN DESA in 2007.• From December 2013 onwards, the responsibility for the maintenance and revisions of the model and database resides on UNCTAD. 

• UNCTAD is committed to make the databank available to a wider audience. 

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• The GPM is not a (short‐term) forecasting model. • It is a model of the world economy design to simulate the macroeconomic impacts on countries and regions of – exogenous shocks to the global economy, – the potential effects of 'sea changes' in market confidence (such as reversals in financial market confidence following asset price bubbles), 

– changes in international regulation of trade and finance and 

• The main policy arenas are ‘fiscal policy’, ‘monetary policy’ and ‘exchange rate, trade and industrial policy’.

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Global Policy Model each country or bloc

exports and current a/c

world markets for commodities and energy

net imports or exports of commodities and energy

consumption and 

investment

domestic income, output, employment, inflation

, 

global financial markets

fiscal, monetary & structural policies

global policy coordination

world markets for manufactures and services

imports of manufactures and services

external positionreserves

holding gainsholding gains

global economy

CO2

natural resources

government debt

capital stock

bank lending

Applications

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Indices

UNCTAD

Trade and Development Report 2014

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ILO & Tufts University

The Trans‐Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: European Disintegration, Unemployment and 

InstabilityJeronim Capaldo

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Part 2

Database: Final User

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How the WD databank is built

National accounts

Employment

etc.

Adjusted and

reconciled series for publication

Country aggregation

Reporter series

Source data files

Source areas in the databank

Common area in the databank

Extraction by end users

Extraction by end users

Extraction by end users

The interface: Select the reporters and variables

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The interface: List of predefined regions

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Select the quality of data, years

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Result

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Requirements

• SQL Server 2012 Express and SQL Server Management Studio 2012 Express to be installed in a laptop.

• Excel programme to download data

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Package for final user

• A final user receives a zip file containing:– A user manual: “WD82 User Manual.doc”– A visual guide: “Installing SQL 2012  Express.doc”– 2 SQL files:

• WD82.mdf (SQL database)• WD82_log.ldf (keeps track of almost every change)

– An excel file to download data: WD82.xls

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The user manual: tables

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Publisher CollectionNo of

observations

Per cent

UN Statistics Division COMTRADE 560,659 38.2IMF International Financial Statistics 170,846 11.7UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates 165,323 11.3ILO Labour statistics 116,485 7.9World Bank World Development Indicators 104,374 7.1UN Population Division World Population Prospects 70,035 4.8UN Statistics Division Energy databank 59,119 4.0IMF World Economic Outlook 24,839 1.7IMF International Investment Position (BPM5) 21,327 1.5IMF International Investment Position (BP6) 19,073 1.3OECD Official Development Assistance 6,768 0.5OECD National accounts 5,150 0.4Solt at Univ of Iowa Standardized World Inequality Indicators 4,216 0.3OECD Labour statistics 3,746 0.3Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 1,299 0.1Eurostat National accounts 1,051 0.1OECD Monthly Monetary and Financial Statistics (MEI) 641 0.0IMF Government Financial Statistics 536 0.0IMF GFS CD 413 0.0BP Statistical Review of World Energy 406 0.0UNCTAD Commodity price database 88 0.0Federal Reserve F.132(A) Rest of the World 44 0.0World Bank Global macroeconomics 44 0.0Federal Reserve L.132(A) Rest of the World 44 0.0BCRA Monetary and Financial Outlook 35 0.0

DS Name No of variables

% source coverage

A national accounts 35 60.7B balance of payments 42 41.8E energy 19 39.4F finance 32 34.8I indicators 16 66.5L labour force 45 36.3N population 18 37.4P world price deflators 3 100.0T merchandise trade 7 38.9

Region Name % source coverage

01 North America 72.602 Caribbean 30.603 Central and South America 48.004 Europe 51.405 West Asia and North Africa 42.606 Central Asia 30.907 Other Africa 32.808 South Asia 46.009 East Asia 48.910 Pacific 28.6

Table 1 ‐ Data sourcesTable 2 – Datasets and source coverage

Table 3 – Coverage by world region

The user manual: tables

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Interpretation % by value % of items

source data 84.2 40.7secondary source 5.1 1.0interpolated 1.7 10.8extrapolated 5.6 25.5assumed value 3.4 22.0

QI Method Description % estimated

3 EI interpolation 5.14 EU backwards extrepolation by reference variable 9.94 EG backwards extrapolation by reference reporter 2.64 EV forward extrepolation by reference variable 0.94 EH forward extrapolation by reference reporter 0.54 EJ backwards extrapolation by parent reporter 0.44 EK forward extrapolation by parent reporter 0.05 EP assume same ratio to ref variable as ref reporter 13.45 ED backwards extrapolation with decay 6.05 EQ assume same value as in reference reporter 1.15 EZ assume zero 1.05 EE forward extrapolation with unchanged value 0.55 EL backrwards extrapolation as log curve 0.15 EM forward extrapolation as log curve 0.05 EF assumed value 0.0

DS Description Too high Too low

A national accounts 7 0B balance of payments 4 3E energy 0 0F finance 4 0I indicators 0 0L labour force 225 267N population 30 0P world price deflators 0 0T merchandise trade 0 0

Table 4 – Quality indicator breakdown

Table  5 – Estimation methods

Table 6  Bound ajustments

The user manual: tables

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Ident Description Scope Formula

A1 GDPA1.1 World trade in goods and services global sum AXX = sum AXMA1.2 Gross domestic product by sector country APA+APE+APM+APS=APTA1.3 Expenditure on gross domestic product country AXD+AXX=APT+AXMA1.4 Expenditure on GDP (2005 prices) country AXD0+AXX0=APT0+AXM0A1.5 Gross domestic product by income type country APT=AYC+AYM+AYW+AYXA2 Domestic spending and capital formationA2.1 Domestic expenditure country AXD=ACT+AITA2.2 Consumption spending country ACT=ACP+ACGA2.3 Gross capital formation country AIT=AKT+AVTA2.4 Change in inventories country AVT=AVP+AVGA2.5 Gross fixed capital formatioin country AKT=AKG+AKPA3 Government financeA3.1 Government financial balance country AYG=ACG+AKG+AVG+ALGA3.2 Government revenue country ARG=ATG+AYGB1 Exports and importsB1.1 World trade in goods global sum BXG=sum BMGB1.2 World trade in services global sum BXS=sum BMSB1.3 Exports of goods and services country AXX=BXG+BXSB1.4 Imports of goods and services country AXM=BMG+BMSB1.5 World current account global sum BCA=0B2 Income and transfersB2.1 Balance on current account country BXG+BXS+BIT=BCA+BMG+BMSB2.2 Balance on income and transfers country BCI+BCT=BIT+BDI+BDTB2.3 World income credits and debits global sum BCI=sum BDIB2.4 World transfer credits and debits global sum BCT=sum BDTB3 Balance of paymentsB3.1 World direct investment flows global sum BDA=sum BDLB3.2 Balance of payments country BFI+BFT=BCA+BKA+BEOB3.3 Financial flows country BFF+BDA+BPA+BOA=BFT+BDL+BPL+BOLB3.4 Portfolio asset flows country BPA=BEA+BBAB3.5 Portfolio liability flows country BPL=BEL+BBLB3.6 Income credits country BCI=BCE+BCPB3.7 Income debits country BDI=BDE+BDPB4 Portfolios and other investment

Seq Region GEO Name % source coverage

01 North America US United States 77.701 North America CA Canada 77.501 North America MX Mexico 62.802 Caribbean JM Jamaica 48.202 Caribbean TT Trinidad and Tobago 47.702 Caribbean BB Barbados 47.002 Caribbean BS Bahamas 43.302 Caribbean DO Dominican Republic 40.302 Caribbean HT Haiti 35.402 Caribbean LC Saint Lucia 34.402 Caribbean GD Grenada 30.702 Caribbean AN Netherlands Antilles 30.602 Caribbean VC St. Vincent and the Grenadines 30.302 Caribbean DM Dominica 30.102 Caribbean AG Antigua and Barbuda 28.502 Caribbean AB Aruba 27.802 Caribbean CU Cuba 24.602 Caribbean BM Bermuda 20.202 Caribbean AI Anguilla 19.802 Caribbean TC Turks and Caicos Islands 15.402 Caribbean KN Saint Kitts and Nevis 14.402 Caribbean KY Cayman Islands 12.602 Caribbean VG British Virgin Islands 9.303 Central and South America BR Brazil 67.503 Central and South America AR Argentina 62.803 Central and South America CO Colombia 60.003 Central and South America CL Chile 55.503 Central and South America VE Venezuela 54.303 Central and South America PE Peru 52.603 Central and South America CR Costa Rica 50.303 Central and South America UY Uruguay 49.803 Central and South America SV El Salvador 46.303 Central and South America PA Panama 45.003 Central and South America EC Ecuador 44.803 Central and South America PY Paraguay 44 8

Table 7 ‐ Accounting Identities: 108 identitiesTable B – Coverage by GEO code: 207 countries

The user manual: tables

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Code Description Units % source coverage Sour

ACG Government consumption m US$ 92.7 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013ACP Non-government consumption m US$ 92.7 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013AIG Government gross capital formation m US$ 12.2 derived as AKG+AVGAIP Non-government gross capital formation m US$ 18.2 derived as AKP+AVPAIT Total gross capital formation m US$ 92.7 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013AKG Government gross fixed capital formation m US$ 12.3 OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013AKP Non-government gross fixed capital formation m US$ 18.2 derived as AKT-AKGAKT Total gross fixed capital formation m US$ 78.5 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013ALG Government net lending m US$ 38.6 IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, IMF GoALP Non-government net lending m US$ 37.9 derived as BCA-ALGAPA GDP in agriculture m US$ 92.5 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013APE GDP in extraction and utilities m US$ 91.0 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013APM GDP in industry m US$ 91.5 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013APS GDP in other sectors m US$ 93.0 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013APT Gross domestic product m US$ 92.9 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, Taiwan NDAPT0 Gross domestic product (2005 prices) m US$ 92.8 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15APT1 Gross domestic product (constant 2005 ppp) m US$ 83.1 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15ARG Government revenue m US$ 43.2 IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, IMF GoATG Government transfers m US$ 37.2 IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, IMF GoAVG Government inventory changes m US$ 12.2 OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013AVP Non-government inventory changes m US$ 12.2 derived as AVT-AVGAVT Total inventory changes m US$ 92.7 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013AXD Domestic expenditure m US$ 92.7 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013AXD0 Domestic expenditure (2005 prices) m US$ 92.8 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15AXM Imports of goods and services m US$ 92.8 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013AXM0 Imports of goods and services (2005 prices) m US$ 92.3 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15AXX Exports of goods and services m US$ 92.8 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013AXX0 Exports of goods and services (2005 prices) m US$ 92.3 UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15AYC Corporate profits m US$ 22.8 IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15AYG Government disposable income m US$ 36.2 IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, IMF GoAYM Mixed income m US$ 12.6 IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15AYP Non-government disposable income m US$ 36.5 derived as AYT-AYGAYT National disposable income m US$ 85.5 derived as APT+BITAYW Income from employment m US$ 23.2 IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15AYX Net indirect taxes m US$ 22.6 IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15

Table A – Variables, definitions and sources: 217 variables

The user manual: how to download data

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A visual guide

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A visual guide

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Part 3

Updating: Database Manager

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Requirements

• SQL Server and SQL Server Management Studio

• Knowledge of statistics, national accounts and balance of payments

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Package for manager (updating)

• The responsible for  updating will receive a zip file containing:– W82: main version of the database named containing all data and configurations used to build published editions.

– A technical guide: “WD Technical Guide.doc”– A visual guide:  “WD Visual Guide.doc”– A description of the source data: “WD Source Data.doc”– 4 excel files

• WD82.xls• WD82Rep.xls• WD82SA.xls• WDReports.xls

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W82: main version of database

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Common

Script

Source

W82: main version of database

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UNANational Accounts

UCTTrade

Loadtsv files

Configurationfiles

Data files

WD Source Data.doc: downloading more than 65 files

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Checking the source file layout: asdf.csv

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Prep.xls: To check source data and configurations

Creating a new database

Executing scripts

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Checking: using excel and SQL script

• 3 excel files– WD82SA.xls– WD82Rep.xls– WDReports.xls

• 2 scripts– Check– Exec (by source)

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WDReports.xls

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summarise the results of processing each source area (tables ARP1‐8), 

results of processing in the common area (tables QRP1‐7) 

tables for the User Manual (MRP1‐7, MRPA and MRPB).

WD82Rep.xls

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provides a convenient way to check series for individual variables and reporters in the common area

WD82SA.xls

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to check details of individual observations in the last source area processed.

Publication: WD8X

Thanks

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Bloc groupings (UN15)

• High income– USA, Europe, Japan, E Asia High Income, Other Developed

• Middle income– Central America, South America, CIS and Other– West Asia, Africa Middle Income, China, Other East Asia

• Low income– India, South Asia, Africa Low Income

The GPM comprises

• In common with other macro‐models, the GPM comprises a databank of historical time series and a set of computer programs that organize the original data, estimate model parameters and generate scenarios. 

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Datos subjetivos

UNCTAD

Trade and Development Report 2013

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Alternative scenarios• Three simulations are presented: 

– The baseline is a projection assuming that there will be neither policy changes  nor shocks ahead. 

– In the two alternative scenarios, a reorientation of macroeconomic policy towards  the adoption of measures that provide stronger support for an expansion of aggregate domestic demand is assumed. 

• These alternative scenarios assume a continuing path of economic convergence between countries, and incorporate the current macroeconomic constraints and potential of each economy or group of economies. In other words, they take into account their particular structural conditions, as well as the interactions between countries through trade and finance. 

• The main distinction between the two alternative scenarios is that in one scenario all countries would be involved in a demand‐driven policy effort (scenario A), while in the other scenario, only developing and emerging market economies would embark on this alternative macroeconomic policy stance (scenario B ).

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