The Webinar Will Begin Shortly - EPON - Current · PDF fileThe Webinar Will Begin Shortly...

1 Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
The Webinar Will Begin Shortly
Frequently Asked Questions
When Will the Webinar Begin? The Webinar will begin at the top of the hour.
What Should I be hearing right now? You should currently hear hold music.
Is there a dial-in for audio? Audio broadcasts directly through your PC there is no call-in available for the Webinar. If you experience
trouble using the audio stream, WebEx recommends closing all of your browser windows, ensuring that your sounds is on and volume is up, then rejoin the Webinar.
What is the difference between Day 1 and Day 2 of the event? The event is the same on both days. Current Analysis provides two days of each online event to ensure
attendees in many time zones will have the ability to attend.
Will the slides/replay be made available? A link to the presentation and replay of the Webinar will be distributed to all registered attendees via
email.
Join the conversation on Twitter at #CAWeb

2 Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved. Washington, DC / London / Paris
August 2012
Presented by:
Erik M. Keith Principal Analyst, Fixed Access Infrastructure [email protected]
Ron Westfall Research Director, Service Provider Infrastructure [email protected]
EPON Market Dynamics: The Fiber Access Landscape, Global Trends and Evolving Opportunities
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

Current and Evolving Fiber Access Market Landscape
Service and Market Drivers for Fiber Access
How is EPON Different from other FTTH Technologies?
EPONs Avenue of Opportunity: North America
EPON Market Contenders: Competitive Analysis
Summary and Conclusions
Agenda

4 Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved. Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
EPON Market Dynamics
Current and Evolving Fiber Access Market Landscape

Active versus Passive FTTH
Passive Optical Networking (PON) Benefits:
Point-to-multipoint architecture is more cost-effective than AE/P2P Ethernet FTTP Fiber Management
Challenges: Potential for oversubscription with very high split ratios Long-term scalability for mass market deployments
Active or Point-to-Point (P2P) Ethernet FTTH Benefits:
P2P architecture means dedicated fiber to each subscriber 10/100 FE or 1 Gbps (GigE) symmetric service, right now Claimed to be more Future Proof than PON No oversubscription of end users
Challenges: Cost! Fiber management, esp. in mass market scenarios

PON-dering the Passive Options
Gigabit PON (GPON) ITU-T G.984 and FSAN standards
Ethernet PON (EPON), aka Gigabit EPON (GEPON) IEEE 802.3 standards
10G EPON Standardized in 2009, some commercial shipments
10G GPON (XG-PON1 and XG-PON2) ITU-T G.987
NGOA and WDM-PON Standard(s) Pending

Fiber Access Standards and Evolutionary Paths
FTTH Technology Speeds per OLT Port
Next Step Forward Future
EPON/GEPON 1.25G symmetric; 2.5G/1G
10G EPON: 10G/1.25G and 10G symmetric
40G or 100G EPON?
GPON 2.5G/1.25G 10G GPON (XG-PON 1,2): 10G/2.5G; 10G symmetric
40G, 100G GPON WDM-PON
P2P Ethernet 10/100 Mbps symmetric
1000 Mbps (1G) symmetric
10G, 40G, 100G ?

Service Drivers for Fiber Access

Service and Market Drivers for Fiber Access
Video Evolution towards Ubiquitous 1080p - HD replacement of SD Internet video doubled in 2011, HD VoD surpassed SD by E2011, VoD
will triple by 2016 By 2016, HD Internet video will comprise 79 percent of VoD traffic 4k, 8k (Ultra-HD) resolutions
Data-Centric Perspective Global IP traffic has increased 8x in last 5 years and will increase 3x
in next 5 years Zettabyte Era: Global IP traffic will surpass 1.3 zettabytes by 2016
Capital and Operational Efficiency Gains Limitations of telco copper and cable HFC networks present
increasing challenges Wireline networks ultimately support most wireless services Mobile Backhaul, esp. LTE will require fiber

Downstream Bandwidth Requirements per Home, Mbps
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
2010 2020 2030
LowMediumHigh

2, 4, 6, 8Ultra-HD, We Will Appreciate

How is EPON Different from other FTTH Technologies?

EPON: Distinguishing Factors
Most Widely Deployed Fiber Access Technology Worldwide Japan pioneered mass market fiber via government mandate;
EPON/GEPON was the technology of choice South Korea followed the Japanese model China the single largest EPON, fiber/fixed access market worldwide
EPON time-to-market well ahead of GPON APAC directives catalyzed product R&D and G.A. 3-year head start for EPON in mass market applications
Rumors of EPONs Demise Greatly Exaggerated When GPON price points equal EPON Big Three in China starting transition toward GPON, but EPON still
pervasive EPON gaining interest from US Cable operators

EPON Vendors: China, Japan and South Korea Dominate

EPONs Avenue of Opportunity: North America

EPON Opportunities Outside of APAC
North America: the Ultimate Market for EPON? Highest mass market ARPU worldwide for cable/broadband/triple
play Cable garners ~60% of North American subscribers Comcast: 18.75 million cable broadband subs Time-Warner: 10.77 million subs Cox (~4m), Charter (~4m), and Cablevision (~3m) also sizeable
subscriber bases Verizon (~5m FiOS Internet subs) pales by comparison
DOCSIS Provisioning of EPON and EPON Protocol over Coax (EPoC)
North American vendors already invested RFoG sets the stage for DPoE CableLabs already facilitating standard
Issues Cable/HFC has many other network enhancement options before
RFoG/DPoE First iteration of DPoE is data-only U.S. government may block Huawei, ZTE from MSO market

EPON in North America: Snapshot of Current Services
Cable MSOs Already Deploying EPON Metro Ethernet services, managed IP routed networks Mobile backhaul and WiFi network aggregation Convergence of business and mobile BH services Extremely limited residential EPON to date Greenfield deployments dependent on housing market
Telcos Not Interested, Generally Advanced DSL, AE/P2P Ethernet and GPON first Supplementing wireline with wireless where feasible
Public Utilities and Municipalities Aurora Networks has 11 Public customers using EPON CTDI (with Alloptic assets) also solid in Public EPON sector

Vendors Targeting North American Cable MSO Market

EPON Market Contenders: Competitive Analysis

EPON Market Competitive Analysis: APAC and Global Market
Vendor (G)EPON Comments
Alcatel-Lucent China only #2 WW FTTH/GPON, minimal EPON
Corecess Korea, APAC Behind most rivals, outside Korea
Dasan Korea, APAC Behind most rivals, outside Korea
FiberHome Top 4 in China Well behind Top Chinese rivals
Fujitsu #2 Japan Strong in Japan, APAC
Huawei #2 China/WW WW GPON/FTTH leader
Mitsubishi #1 Japan Strong in Japan, APAC
Oki-Fujikura #3 Japan Strong in Japan, limited intl
Sumitomo Top 5 Japan Key wins: NTT, KDDI, CHT, PCCW
UTStarcom 1st-to-market In survival mode, APAC focus
ZTE #1 China/WW Also Claims #1 in 10G EPON

EPON Market Competitive Analysis: North American Opportunity
Vendor Technology Comments
ARRIS CMTS, RFoG, DPoE Top contender w/Cisco for WW cable infrastructure gear
Aurora Networks EPON, RFOG, DPoE Acquired Trident7 OLT from Enablence; small player (utilities/munis)
Cisco CMTS, DPoE, AE/P2P Ethernet FTTH
Tier 1 cable infrastructure market supplier, #1 WW in AE/P2P Ethernet FTTH
CTDI (Alloptic) EPON, RFoG, DPoE Acquired Edge2000 product from Alloptic; another small player
Hitachi EPON, RFoG, DPoE Acquired Salira Systems EPON and DPoE; RFoG developed by US division
Huawei EPON, DPoE #1 WW FTTH, but US govt may impede
Motorola CMTS, RFoG, DPoE Sale by Google limits operator interest
Sumitomo EPON, DPoE Product well-poised for US DPoE
ZTE EPON, DPoE #3 WW FTTH but US govt hurdle

22 Current Analysis Inc. All rights

The Webinar Will Begin Shortly - EPON - Current · PDF fileThe Webinar Will Begin Shortly...

Documents

Transcript of The Webinar Will Begin Shortly - EPON - Current · PDF fileThe Webinar Will Begin Shortly...