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REPUBLIC OF KENYA

MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT & FORESTRY

KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, P. O. Box 30259, 00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya

Telephone: 254 (0) 20 3867880-7, 0724 255 153/4

E-mail: director@meteo.go.ke, info@meteo.go.ke

Website: http://www.meteo.go.ke Twitter: @MeteoKenya

Ref. No. KMD/FCST/4-2021/MO/11 Date: 29th October, 2021

THE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2021 AND THE

WEATHER REVIEW FOR OCTOBER 2021

1. HIGHLIGHTS

1.1. The Weather Outlook for November 2021

November is normally the peak month for the October-November-December (OND)

“short-rains” season. The outlook for November 2021 indicates that the Lake Victoria

Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley and Central and South Rift Valley, and the

Highlands East of the Rift Valley, are likely to experience near-average rainfall for the

month. The South-eastern Lowlands, the North-Western, North-Eastern and the Coastal

Strip are likely to experience near-average to below average rainfall. Episodes of heavy

rains are likely to continue being experienced in several parts of the country during the

period.

1.2. The Weather Review for October 2021

Most parts of the country experienced dry weather conditions during the month of

October 2021 except the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the

Central Rift Valley and few areas over the Highlands East of the Rift Valley where

occasional rainfall was experienced. The start of the seasonal rains (onset) has not yet

been realized over several places except the Western sector and few areas over the

Highlands East of the Rift Valley. Isolated storms were recorded over the Highlands

West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central Rift Valley and the

Highlands East of the Rift Valley as had been forecasted. Most meteorological stations

in the country recorded monthly rainfall totals of less than 75 percent of their October

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monthly LTMs. Nyahururu and Laikipia Air Base were the only meteorological stations

that recorded more than 125 percent of their October LTM.

1 THE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2021

The outlook for November 2021 is mainly based on empirical statistical models

developed from expected evolution of global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies

and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The Equatorial sea surface temperatures

(SSTs) considered are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean

which implies that La Niña conditions are present. This usually results to below

average rainfall over Kenya. Also considered is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which

is in the neutral phase and is likely to remain so in November.

1.1 Rainfall Forecast for November 2021

The forecast indicates that the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley

and Central and South Rift Valley, and the Highlands East of the Rift Valley are likely

to experience near-average rainfall for the month. The South-Eastern Lowlands,

Northwestern, Northeastern and the Coastal Strip are likely to experience near to

below average rainfall as shown in Figure 1. Episodes of heavy rains are likely to

continue being experienced in several parts of the country during the period.

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Figure 1: November 2021 Rainfall Forecast

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1.2 Outlook for Specific Areas

The Highlands West of the Rift Valley Counties (Trans Nzoia, Kericho,

Bomet, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kakamega, Vihiga, West Pokot,

Bungoma, Kisii, Nyamira); the Lake Victoria Basin (Kisumu, Homa Bay,

Migori, Siaya, Busia); the Southern and Central Rift Valley (Nakuru, Narok,

Baringo, parts of Kajiado, Laikipia); Significant amounts of rainfall are

expected throughout the month of November which are likely to be near the

long-term average for November. During this period, heavy storms are likely

to be more frequent especially in the afternoons and evenings.

North-western Counties (Turkana, Samburu): Occasional rainfall is

expected during the month of November 2021. The expected amounts of

rainfall are likely to be near to below the long- term average amounts for

November. Episodes of heavy rains accompanied by strong winds may occur

during the month.

Highlands East of the Rift Valley Counties and Nairobi County

(Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Murang’a, Embu, Meru and

Tharaka Nithi and Nairobi) Morning rains and afternoon/evening showers are

expected over several places in the month of November 2021. The expected

total amounts are likely to be near the long-term average amounts for

November. Occasional episodes of heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds

may occur during the month.

North-eastern Counties (Mandera, Garissa, Marsabit, Wajir and Isiolo):

Occasional rainfall is expected during the month of November 2021. The

expected amount of rainfall is likely to be below the long-term average for

November. Episodes of heavy rains accompanied by strong winds may occur

during the period.

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South-eastern Lowlands Counties (Parts of Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni,

Machakos and Taita Taveta): Occasional rainfall is expected during the month

of November 2021. The expected amount of rainfall is likely to be below the

long-term average amounts for November. The beginning of the month is likely

to have above average rainfall (wet spells) with rainfall amounts expected to

reduce as the month progresses. Episodes of heavy rains may occur during

the period.

The Coastal Strip Counties (Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale):

Occasional rainfall along the Coastal strip is expected throughout the month

of November 2021. The expected amount of rainfall is likely to be below the

long-term average amounts for November.

1.3 Potential Impacts

The following are the likely impacts during the month of November 2021:

Agriculture and Food Security

The expected near average rainfall in the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of

the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley and the Highlands East of the Rift Valley

is likely to provide sufficient soil moisture to sustain agricultural production. The

rains may however have a negative effect on post-harvest activities.

The depressed rainfall that is expected in the counties of Northeastern, Northwestern

and the South-eastern lowlands may slightly improve water and pasture for livestock

production and human use.

Disaster Management

Occasional flooding in low lying areas and along river basins in the Lake Victoria

Basin, as well as in areas surrounding the Rift Valley lakes may continue to be

experienced. Occasional flash floods are likely during this period. Flooding may be

experienced even in areas which may not necessarily be raining due to heavy rainfall

elsewhere.

In the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, where near average rainfall is expected,

lightning strikes are also highly probable, especially in Kisii, Kisumu, Nandi, Kericho,

Bungoma (Mt. Elgon areas) and Kakamega Counties. Cases of landslides/mudslides

in hilly areas of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley are also highly probable.

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In the Southeastern lowlands, Coastal region, Northwestern and Northeastern

counties, where mainly depressed rainfall is likely are expected, human to human

and human to wildlife conflicts are likely to be experienced due to competition for

diminished water resources and pasture.

Water Resources Management and Energy

The major river catchment areas for the country’s hydroelectric power generating

dams are expected to receive near average rainfall. The water levels in the dams

across the country are therefore likely to improve slightly. Water scarcity in most of

the ASAL areas is likely to continue being experienced. Thus, residents are advised

to harvest rain water for both human and livestock use.

Environment The expected rainfall during the month is expected to provide conducive soil moisture

for growing of trees especially over the western sector of the country including the

central and the Rift valley regions. The public should therefore take advantage of

these conditions and plant trees while putting in place measures to conserve the

environment.

Health In areas expected to receive near average rainfall, water-borne diseases such as

diarrhea are likely to emerge. Poorly drained areas may have pools of stagnant water

which may become breeding areas for disease-causing pathogens.

Transport and Public Safety Sector The expected rainfall may cause slippery roads in some parts of the country

increasing the risk of accidents. Flash floods may cause transport challenges

especially during rush hours and more so in areas where the roads become

impassable when it rains.

2 WEATHER REVIEW FOR OCTOBER 2021

2.1 Rainfall Review for October 2021

The month of October marks the onset of the October-November-December (OND)

short-rains season in Kenya. The start of the seasonal rains (onset) has not yet been

realized over several places except over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake

Victoria Basin, Central Rift Valley and few areas over the Highlands East of the Rift

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Valley where the onset has been realized. Isolated storms were recorded over the

Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central Rift Valley and

the Highlands East of the Rift Valley. For instance, Kimunye rainfall station in

Kirinyaga County recorded 65.7mm in 24 hours on 19th October while on 20th October

Kangaita Tea Research rainfall station also in Kirinyaga County recorded 52.0mm.

Other stations that recorded heavy rainfall include Eluuya secondary school in

Bungoma County that recorded 49.3mm on 1st October, Nyeri that recorded 46.2mm

on 26th October and Kisumu that recorded 40.0mm on 3rd October.

Most meteorological stations in the country recorded monthly rainfall totals of less

than 75 percent of their October monthly LTMs (depressed rainfall). Nyahururu and

Laikipia Air Base were the only meteorological stations that recorded more than 125

percent of their October LTM. The stations recorded 172% and 156.9% of their

monthly LTMs respectively.

Up to 28th of October, the highest monthly rainfall total of 188.3mm (108.9% of the

LTM) was recorded at Kericho Meteorological Station. Other stations that recorded

more than 100mm of rainfall include Kisii, Kitale, Laikipia Air Base, Nyahururu, Meru

and Kisumu that recorded 176.2mm (97.6%), 159.8mm (124.5%), 116.1mm

(156.9%), 106.2mm (172%), 105.9mm (45.6%) and 103.1mm (107.3% respectively.

Embu, Kakamega, Eldoret, Nyeri, Dagoretti and Nakuru recorded 82.2mm (46.5%),

79.5mm (48.6%), 71.7mm (114.7%), 70.4mm (61.7%), 70.1mm (115.2%) and 59.3mm

(70.5%) respectively. The rest of the stations recorded less than 50mm with Machakos

recording no rainfall at all throughout the month. as depicted in Figures 2a and 2b.

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Figure 2a: October 2021 Rainfall Totals Against October LTMs

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OCTOBER 2021 RAINFALL TOTALS AGAINST OCTOBER LTMS

OCT-TOT OCT- LTM

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Figure 2b: October 2021 Rainfall Totals Against October LTMs

Listed below are rainfall reports from voluntary rainfall stations elsewhere in the

country that recorded more than 100mm in October 2021.

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Station Amount In

mm Station

Amount

In mm Station

Amount

In mm

NYAMIRA D.O. 235.1 KIBABII UNIVERSITY 136.3 KANGAITA TEA

RESEARCH 114.3

KANDUYI

AGRICULTURAL

OFFICE

217.6 KAPLAMAI CHIEF’S OFFICE

128.0 MAINEK TORO

SECONDARY SCHOOL 104.5

KANGEMA 203.1 CASTLE FOREST

STATION 126.8

BUNGOMA WATER

SUPPLY 183.5 GAKOE TEA ESTATE 126.5

MAKWA COFFEE ESTATE

103.7

ELUUYA GIRLS

SECONDARY SCHOOL 176.8 MUKAKULA FARM 126.3

KANGAITA FOREST STATION

103.3

NABICHAKHA

SECONDARY SCHOOL 173.1 KANGAITA TEA FARM 123.5

KHALABA WARD 166.6 ADC NAMANDALA 122.8

KAIBOS MIXED SECONDARY

164.1 WRA KAPENGURIA 122.0

BUTERE 164.0

KAPSOKWONY

AGRICULTURAL OFFICE

121.0

ST CLARE GEKENDO AWS

163.5 COFFEE RESEARCH INSTITUTE KITALE

111.8

BUMULA AGRICULTURAL

OFFICE 140.3 ADC JAPATA 115.7

2.2 Rainfall Review for OND 2021 Season

Further analysis of the OND 2021 season indicates that the rainfall amounts

recorded at all the meteorological stations across the country during the month of

October 2021 are yet to reach the seasonal LTMs. The highest percentage of 62.4%

was recorded at Laikipia Air Base meteorological station with 116.1mm against the

seasonal LTM of 186.1mm.

Stations that recorded seasonal rainfall total of more than 100mm include Kericho

188.3mm (42.9%), Kisii 176.2mm (35.2%), Kitale 159.8mm (60.9%), Nyahururu

106.2mm (58.2%), Meru 105.9mm (15.3%) and Kisumu 103.1mm (31.4%). This

implies that no station has attained near-average rainfall (between 75 and 125

percent of their seasonal LTMs). Marsabit recorded less than 1mm of rainfall while

Machakos recorded no rainfall at all during the month of October 2021.

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Figure 3: OND 2021 Rainfall Totals against OND Seasonal Totals

2.3 Experienced Impacts in October 2021

Agriculture and Food Security

The continued dry conditions over the ASAL areas have led to insufficient pasture

and water for livestock and food for human consumption. More livestock deaths

were reported in Isiolo, Kilifi, Samburu and Tana River Counties. The prices of

livestock in these Counties have gone down as they are in bad condition. In Isiolo

County, more than 55% of the people are in dire need of food and children are

severely malnourished and have to rely on food supplements.

Heavy rainfall experienced in TransNzoia County affected harvesting, drying and

storing of grains.

Disaster Management

Drought has been reported in more than twenty three Counties where residents

are faced with acute food shortage.

There was a case of human wildlife conflict in Samburu County where an elderly

man was killed by a rogue elephant.

Heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds destroyed farms, houses and school

roofs in Kisii, Elgeyo Marakwet and TransNzoia counties.

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OND 2021 RAINFALL TOTALS AGAINST OND SEASONAL LTMS

0ND-TOT OND- LTM

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Water Resources Management and Energy Most water sources in Isiolo and Tanariver Counties have dried up and

pastoralists have to walk for long distances daily in search of water both for

human and livestock consumption.

Transport and Public Safety Transport was temporarily disrupted along the Njabini- Engineer and Pesi roads

in Nyandarua County on 1st October following heavy rainfall that was

accompanied by hailstones in the area.

NB: This outlook should be used together with the 24-hour, 5-day, 7-day,

monthly, special forecasts and regular updates/advisories issued by this

Department as well as Weekly and Monthly County forecasts developed and

availed by County Meteorological Offices.

Stella Aura, MBS

DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES