EFCC Weather Outlook
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EFCC Weather Outlook. 5 June 2012. Fire Season Key Elements. From NWCC. Below normal snowpack Early snowmelt Long term drought Below normal June rainfall Dry July / August - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of EFCC Weather Outlook
EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather Outlook5 June 20125 June 2012
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpackBelow normal snowpack
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpackBelow normal snowpack
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpackBelow normal snowpack
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpackBelow normal snowpack
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentBy River BasinBy River Basin
Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentBy River BasinBy River Basin
Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentBy River BasinBy River Basin
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt Early snowmelt
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentMt. Hood Test SiteMt. Hood Test Site
Average
So Far
Last Year
Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentCascade Summit (Central Cascades)Cascade Summit (Central Cascades)
Average
This Year
Last Year
Snow Water EquivalentSnow Water EquivalentWolf Creek (NE Mountains)Wolf Creek (NE Mountains)
Average
This Year
Last Year
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought Long term drought
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Drought MonitorDrought MonitorMay 29th, 2012May 29th, 2012
Drought MonitorDrought MonitorMay 29th, 2012May 29th, 2012
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall Below normal June rainfall
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Precipitation ProbabilityPrecipitation ProbabilityJune 2012June 2012
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August Dry July / August
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Precipitation ProbabilityPrecipitation ProbabilityJuly, August, SeptemberJuly, August, September
Temperature ProbabilityTemperature ProbabilityJuly, August, SeptemberJuly, August, September
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Fire Season Key ElementsFire Season Key ElementsFrom NWCCFrom NWCC
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Remains to be Seen Remains to be Seen
Below normal snowpack - YESBelow normal snowpack - YES
Early snowmelt - YES Early snowmelt - YES
Long term drought – YES (South Central)Long term drought – YES (South Central)
Below normal June rainfall - NoBelow normal June rainfall - No
Dry July / August - YES Dry July / August - YES
Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer) Dry lightning episodes (2-3 per summer)
Remains to be Seen Remains to be Seen
El Niño/La Niña PredictionsEl Niño/La Niña PredictionsVarious Forecasting TechniquesVarious Forecasting Techniques
La Niña
El Niño
El Niño/La Niña PredictionsEl Niño/La Niña PredictionsVarious Forecasting TechniquesVarious Forecasting Techniques
ENSO Neutral SummersENSO Neutral Summers500mb Height500mb Height
ENSO Neutral SummersENSO Neutral Summers500mb Height Anomaly500mb Height Anomaly
ENSO Neutral SummersENSO Neutral Summers850mb Temperature Anomaly850mb Temperature Anomaly
Analog YearsAnalog YearsEl Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La Niña
Analog YearsAnalog YearsEl Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La Niña
Paul WerthPaul Werth
19511951200920091963196319761976
Analog YearsAnalog YearsEl Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La Niña
Paul WerthPaul Werth
19511951200920091963196319761976
Pete ParsonsPete Parsons
195119511972197220092009
Analog YearsAnalog YearsEl Niño/La NiñaEl Niño/La Niña
Paul WerthPaul Werth
19511951200920091963196319761976
Pete ParsonsPete Parsons
195119511972197220092009
Jim LittleJim Little
196319631972197220012001200920091975197520002000
EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather OutlookBottom LineBottom Line
EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather OutlookBottom LineBottom Line
In many respects a rather “average” In many respects a rather “average” summersummer
Driest areas east of CascadesDriest areas east of Cascades
Driest months August and SeptemberDriest months August and September
Best chances for dry lightning August Best chances for dry lightning August and Septemberand September
EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather Outlook5 June 20125 June 2012
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather Outlook5 June 20125 June 2012
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
EFCC Weather OutlookEFCC Weather Outlook5 June 20125 June 2012
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
Questions?
Contact [email protected]
