THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSISSIPPI The University of Mississippi Institute for Advanced Education in...

THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSISSIPPI

The University of Mississippi

Institute for Advanced Education in Geospatial

Science

The Changing Demography

of the CSGS Region

David A. SwansonUniversity of Mississippi([email protected])

Conference of Southern Graduate Schools

Biloxi, MS26 February 2005




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Overview

1. Introduction

2. Changes in Race and Ethnicity by Selected Age Groupsa. CSGS Region: 1995 to 2005 (History) b. CSGS Region: 2005 to 2015 (Near Term Future)c. CSGS Region: 2015 to 2025 (Longer Term Future)d. Summary: 2005 to 2025 (Future)e. Variation within the CSGS Region

3. Implications for Graduate Programs




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The CSGS Region: 15 States and DC

Alabama, Arkansas, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, W. Virginia




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Population of the CSGS Region in 1995

CSGS REGION POPULATION TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL1995 AGE WHITE NH BLACK NH OTHER NH NON-HISPANIC HISPANIC POPULATION

0-14 12,395,808 4,626,975 490,708 17,513,491 2,362,100 19,875,591 15-19 4,034,412 1,497,306 158,024 5,689,742 697,506 6,387,248 20-24 4,175,574 1,389,552 165,933 5,731,059 699,641 6,430,700 25-29 4,372,554 1,306,952 172,392 5,851,898 705,237 6,557,135 30+ 38,956,041 8,219,448 1,005,612 48,181,101 3,740,615 51,921,716Total 63,934,389 17,040,233 1,992,669 82,967,291 8,205,099 91,172,390




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Changes in Race and Ethnicity by Selected Age Groups, 1995 to 2005

CSGS REGION TOTAL TOTAL TOTALNumerical Change AGE WHITE NH BLACK NH OTHER NH NON_HISPANIC HISPANIC POPULATION

1995-2005 0-14 -321,233 346,968 117,916 143,651 617,529 761,180 15-19 518,210 263,732 54,399 836,341 261,823 1,098,164 20-24 232,507 179,594 43,553 455,654 205,055 660,709 25-29 -414,273 86,859 28,154 -299,260 104,287 -194,973 30+ 4,621,119 1,782,909 460,229 6,864,257 1,625,753 8,490,010Total 4,636,330 2,660,062 704,251 8,000,643 2,814,447 10,815,090

Percent Change 0-14 -2.59 7.50 24.03 0.82 26.14 3.83

1995-2005 15-19 12.84 17.61 34.42 14.70 37.54 17.19 20-24 5.57 12.92 26.25 7.95 29.31 10.27 25-29 -9.47 6.65 16.33 -5.11 14.79 -2.97 30+ 11.86 21.69 45.77 14.25 43.46 16.35Total 7.25 15.61 35.34 9.64 34.30 11.86




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0-14 12,074,575 4,973,943 608,624 17,657,142 2,979,629 20,636,771 15-19 4,552,622 1,761,038 212,423 6,526,083 959,329 7,485,412 20-24 4,408,081 1,569,146 209,486 6,186,713 904,696 7,091,409 25-29 3,958,281 1,393,811 200,546 5,552,638 809,524 6,362,162 30+ 43,577,160 10,002,357 1,465,841 55,045,358 5,366,368 60,411,726Total 68,570,719 19,700,295 2,696,920 90,967,934 11,019,546 101,987,480




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Changes in Race and Ethnicity by Selected Age Groups, 2005-2015

CSGS REGION TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL AGE WHITE NH BLACK NH OTHER NH NON-HISPANIC HISPANIC POPULATION

Numerical Change 0-14 -397,133 377,996 85,838 66,701 589,301 656,002 2005-2015 15-19 -269,914 53,787 38,851 -177,276 200,288 23,012

20-24 141,808 179,772 38,276 359,856 302,549 662,405 25-29 398,962 211,600 42,572 653,134 230,268 883,402 30+ 3,455,096 1,679,087 419,093 5,553,276 1,786,750 7,340,026Total 3,328,819 2,502,242 624,630 6,455,691 3,109,156 9,564,847

Percent Change 0-14 -3.29 7.60 14.10 0.38 19.78 3.18

2005-2015 15-19 -5.93 3.05 18.29 -2.72 20.88 0.31 20-24 3.22 11.46 18.27 5.82 33.44 9.34 25-29 10.08 15.18 21.23 11.76 28.44 13.89 30+ 7.93 16.79 28.59 10.09 33.30 12.15Total 4.85 12.70 23.16 7.10 28.21 9.38




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Change in Age Group 20-24 by Race/Ethnicity, 2005-2015

Change in Age Group 20-24, 2005-2015

0

50,000

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White NH Black NH Other NH Hispanic

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0-14 11,677,442 5,351,939 694,462 17,723,843 3,568,930 21,292,773 15-19 4,282,708 1,814,825 251,274 6,348,807 1,159,617 7,508,424 20-24 4,549,889 1,748,918 247,762 6,546,569 1,207,245 7,753,814 25-29 4,357,243 1,605,411 243,118 6,205,772 1,039,792 7,245,564 30+ 47,032,256 11,681,444 1,884,934 60,598,634 7,153,118 67,751,752Total 71,899,538 22,202,537 3,321,550 97,423,625 14,128,702 111,552,327




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Numerical Change 0-14 149,206 435,292 103,380 687,878 785,803 1,473,681 2015-2025 15-19 -114,940 162,998 38,739 86,797 245,397 332,194

20-24 -442,088 49,448 32,387 -360,253 121,218 -239,035 25-29 -276,610 44,972 38,352 -193,286 190,422 -2,864 30+ 3,086,657 1,723,547 437,428 5,247,632 2,222,562 7,470,194Total 2,421,536 2,416,257 650,286 5,488,079 3,565,402 9,053,481

Percent Change 2015-2025 0-14 1.28 8.13 14.89 3.88 22.02 6.92

15-19 -2.68 8.98 15.42 1.37 21.16 4.42 20-24 -9.72 2.83 13.07 -5.50 10.04 -3.08 25-29 -6.35 2.80 15.78 -3.11 18.31 -0.04 30+ 6.56 14.75 23.21 8.66 31.07 11.03Total 3.37 10.88 19.58 5.63 25.24 8.12




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-500,000

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0-14 11,826,648 5,787,231 797,842 18,411,721 4,354,733 22,766,454 15-19 4,167,768 1,977,823 290,013 6,435,604 1,405,014 7,840,618 20-24 4,107,801 1,798,366 280,149 6,186,316 1,328,463 7,514,779 25-29 4,080,633 1,650,383 281,470 6,012,486 1,230,214 7,242,700 30+ 50,118,913 13,404,991 2,322,362 65,846,266 9,375,680 75,221,946Total 74,321,074 24,618,794 3,971,836 102,911,704 17,694,104 120,605,808




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Numerical Change 0-14 -247,927 813,288 189,218 754,579 1,375,104 2,129,683 2005-2025 15-19 -384,854 216,785 77,590 -90,479 445,685 355,206

20-24 -300,280 229,220 70,663 -397 423,767 423,370 25-29 122,352 256,572 80,924 459,848 420,690 880,538 30+ 6,541,753 3,402,634 856,521 10,800,908 4,009,312 14,810,220Total 5,750,355 4,918,499 1,274,916 11,943,770 6,674,558 18,618,328

Percent Change 0-14 -2.05 16.35 31.09 4.27 46.15 10.32 2005-2025 15-19 -8.45 12.31 36.53 -1.39 46.46 4.75

20-24 -6.81 14.61 33.73 -0.01 46.84 5.97 25-29 3.09 18.41 40.35 8.28 51.97 13.84 30+ 15.01 34.02 58.43 19.62 74.71 24.52Total 8.39 24.97 47.27 13.13 60.57 18.26




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-400,000-300,000-200,000-100,000

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Variation within the CSGS Region: Texas in 2005

TEXAS TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL2005 AGE WHITE NH BLACK NH OTHER NH NON_HISPANIC HISPANIC POPULATION

0-14 2,135,311 656,735 162,290 2,954,336 1,998,152 4,952,488 15-19 814,519 237,457 52,425 1,104,401 604,969 1,709,370 20-24 817,631 219,036 52,630 1,089,297 573,473 1,662,770 25-29 707,915 191,905 50,452 950,272 501,204 1,451,476 30+ 7,111,830 1,314,096 338,706 8,764,632 2,946,253 11,710,885Total 11,587,206 2,619,229 656,503 14,862,938 6,624,051 21,486,989




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Variation within the CSGS Region: Texas in 2025

TEXAS TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL2025 AGE WHITE NH BLACK NH OTHER NH NON_HISPANIC HISPANIC POPULATION

0-14 2,178,101 829,675 227,759 3,235,535 2,901,795 6,137,330 15-19 766,530 285,265 79,980 1,131,775 891,904 2,023,679 20-24 764,152 264,913 77,173 1,106,238 829,318 1,935,556 25-29 744,400 241,979 76,273 1,062,652 745,038 1,807,690 30+ 8,048,024 1,844,120 524,788 10,416,932 4,861,426 15,278,358Total 12,501,207 3,465,952 985,973 16,953,132 10,229,481 27,182,613




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Variation within the CSGS Region:Mississippi in 2005

MISSISSIPPI TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL2005 AGE WHITE NH BLACK NH OTHER NH NON_HISPANIC HISPANIC POPULATION

0-14 334,776 286,266 8,165 629,207 5,230 634,437 15-19 121,443 94,817 2,518 218,778 2,379 221,157 20-24 112,506 85,375 2,282 200,163 2,166 202,329 25-29 103,291 78,017 2,259 183,567 1,977 185,544 30+ 1,132,111 502,472 16,459 1,651,042 13,978 1,665,020Total 1,804,127 1,046,947 31,683 2,882,757 25,730 2,908,487




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Variation within the CSGS Region:Mississippi in 2025

MISSISSIPPI TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL2025 AGE WHITE NH BLACK NH OTHER NH NON_HISPANIC HISPANIC POPULATION

0-14 312,947 277,594 8,812 599,353 7,283 606,636 15-19 111,442 96,184 2,868 210,494 3,006 213,500 20-24 103,132 83,869 2,558 189,559 2,867 192,426 25-29 99,884 74,396 2,626 176,906 2,711 179,617 30+ 1,276,622 626,247 23,355 1,926,224 23,762 1,949,986Total 1,904,027 1,158,290 40,219 3,102,536 39,629 3,142,165




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Implications for Graduate Programs

Estimated Graduate School Participation Rateby Race/Ethnicity, Age Segments 20-24 and 25-29

Age WHITE NH BLACK NH OTHER NH HISPANIC20-24 0.0528 0.0304 0.0304 0.030425-29 0.018 0.0144 0.0144 0.0144

*Estimated from IPEDs and Census Data. Detailsavailable on request.




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Implications for Graduate ProgramsBASELINE CSGS REGION GRADUATE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTION

TOTAL TOTAL Year Age WHITE NH BLACK NH OTHER NH NON-HISPANIC HISPANIC TOTAL2005

20-24 232,747 47,702 6,368 286,817 27,503 314,32025-29 71,249 20,071 2,888 94,208 8,451 102,659Total 303,996 67,773 9,256 381,025 35,954 416,979

2010 20-24 239,693 51,544 6,788 298,025 31,053 329,07725-29 76,377 21,421 3,298 101,096 9,678 110,774Total 288,566 63,709 8,150 360,425 31,309 391,734

2015 20-24 240,234 53,167 7,532 300,933 36,700 337,63325-29 78,430 23,118 3,501 105,049 10,855 115,905Total 318,665 76,285 11,033 405,982 47,556 453,538

2020 20-24 224,451 52,933 7,935 285,319 37,070 322,39025-29 78,449 23,876 3,847 106,172 12,720 118,892Total 302,900 76,809 11,782 391,491 49,791 441,282

2025 20-24 216,892 54,670 8,517 280,079 40,385 320,46425-29 73,451 23,766 4,053 101,270 12,843 114,114Total 290,343 78,436 12,570 381,349 53,229 434,578

Baseline Projection uses rates as found in analysis.Rate =.0528 for White Non-Hispanic and .0304 for all other race-ethnic groups,aged 20-24Rate =.0188 for White Non-Hispanic and .01044 for all other race-ethnic groups,aged 25-29Note: Values shown may not add exactly to totals because of rounding.




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Baseline Projection of Graduate Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity, 2005-2025

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

1 2 3 4 5

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Num

ber

White NH

Black NH

Other NH

Hispanic




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Implications for Graduate ProgramsALTERNATIVE 1 CSGS REGION GRADUATE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTION

TOTAL TOTAL Year Age WHITE NH BLACK NH OTHER NH NON-HISPANIC HISPANIC TOTAL2005

20-24 232,747 47,702 6,368 286,817 27,503 314,32025-29 71,249 20,071 2,888 94,208 8,451 102,659Total 303,996 67,773 9,256 381,025 35,954 416,979

2010 20-24 239,693 89,524 11,789 341,006 53,934 394,94025-29 76,377 26,777 4,122 107,276 16,686 123,961Total 316,070 116,300 15,911 448,281 70,620 518,901

2015 20-24 240,234 92,343 13,082 345,659 63,743 409,40125-29 78,430 28,897 4,376 111,704 18,716 130,420Total 318,665 121,240 17,458 457,363 70,620 539,822

2020 20-24 224,451 91,936 13,782 330,169 64,385 394,55525-29 78,449 29,845 4,808 113,102 21,931 135,034Total 302,900 121,781 18,590 443,272 86,317 529,589

2025 20-24 216,892 94,954 14,792 326,637 70,143 396,78025-29 73,451 29,707 5,066 108,225 22,144 130,369Total 290,343 124,661 19,858 434,862 92,287 527,149

Alternative sets all rates equal to White Non-Hispanic Participation Rates by age, .0528 and .018, age group 20-24 and age group 25-29, respectively.Note: Values shown may not add exactly to totals because of rounding.




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Alternative Projection of Graduate Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity, 2005-2025

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

1 2 3 4 5

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Num

ber

White NH

Black NH

Other NH

Hispanic




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A View of the Future




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ReferencesThe population projections are taken from Population

Projections for states by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1995 5o 2025, by Paul Campbell. October 1996. Washington DC: US Census Bureau. The report and the data are available online at:

http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/stproj.html

(Last accessed February 2005)

The data used to generate the participation rates are taken from Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2001 and Financial Statistics, Fiscal year 2001, [E.D Tabs] by Laura Knapp et al. December 2003. Washington DC: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. The report and data are available online at:

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2004155

(last accessed February 2005)

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