Demography and Local Government

David Keyser · State Demography Office

Today - Overview

• Census 2010

• Who we are, what we do

• Economy

• Population trends

Census 2010

• We are not the US Census

• We work with the Census

• Complete count assistance

• Mapping assistance

• Help with data dissemination

Census 2010

• Short – population count and ACS benchmark

• Important for congressional districting, federal funds allocation

• Approx. $800 annually to Colorado for each response

• Every 1% increase in response rate saves approx. $85 million

Census 2010 Misunderstandings

• The Census is confidential – Even Barack Obama cannot see individual responses

• According to Title 13 of the US Code, truthfully answering all questions on the Census form is mandatory

• The US Census Bureau is not collecting DNA from envelopes

About us: Focus

• Within the Department of Local Affairs (DOLA)

• Provide public information to local governments, citizens, businesses, consultants, nonprofits, etc.

• Outreach, collaboration

• Goal is bottom up/top down

• Unique situation

State Demography Office

• Population– Estimates– Projections– Characteristics

• GIS/Cartography– Special districts– Support to Census, municipalities, others for

mapping

• Economics

Population

• Estimates– Births, deaths– Migration data from Census– Divided by housing availability

• Projections– Cohort component model– Population is aged, migration estimated– Births and mortality are estimated

Population

• Local input• Local governments provide housing unit

data (i.e. building permits, certificates of occupancy)

• Local governments receive drafts, can challenge estimates

• Allocations based on these estimates such as Conservation Trust Fund, Severance Tax, and FML

Economy and Population

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

Ann

ual P

opul

atio

n %

Cha

nge

US Michigan Colorado

Source: US Census

People follow jobs

How we view jobs

• LEIFA (Local Economic Information and Forecasting Assistance)– Wage and salary employees– Proprietors– Non-profit employees– Agricultural workers– Railroad employment– Private household employment– Membership organizations

How we view jobs

• “Basic” and “Non-basic” industries– Direct and Indirect/Induced– Primary and Spinoff– Export and local

• Includes elements of the population– Government transfers such as Medicare– Retirement income

Economic base

• Base industries determined by population requirements, surveys

• Example: Retail in Vail vs. Denver

Economic Incentives

• A company approaches a city and asks for a tax break to create a certain number of jobs

• Jobs are good, right?

• Question for the city: Is what we’re giving this company greater than or equal to what we get back?

Economic Incentives

• Answer: That depends

• Revenue from the business (and costs)

• Revenue from the population (and costs)

• Easy to just take a multiplier and look at jobs in the absolute sense

• Population impacts could easily mean negative fiscal impact even without incentives

Economic Incentives

• Important to remember: People follow jobs, jobs support people

• Complex relationship

• Especially important when planning or trying to attract businesses

Economic Planning

• This is not to say that you should discourage jobs that support the portion of the population that consumes more city services than it supports

• There is a distribution and balance

• Important to be mindful when tipping the scale

Trends and issues in Colorado

• Baby Boomers– Labor force– Expenditures and personal consumption– Migration and housing

• Increasing ethnic diversity– Household sizes by ethnicity– Could present issues to cities

Baby Boomers

• Born 1946 – 1964

• First reach age 65 in 2010

• More education than previous or subsequent generations

• Between 2000 and 2030 Colorado’s 65+ population will triple

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85Age

Num

ber

of P

erso

ns

2,210,000

Colorado Population by Age, 1970

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85Age

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ber o

f Per

sons

2,890,000

Colorado Population by Age, 1980

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10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85Age

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ber

of P

erso

ns

3,294,000

Colorado Population by Age, 1990

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85Age

Num

ber o

f Per

sons

4,340,000

Colorado Population by Age, 2000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85Age

Num

ber

of P

erso

ns

6,275,500

Colorado Population by Age, 2020

0

10,00020,000

30,00040,000

50,00060,000

70,00080,000

90,000100,000

110,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85Age

Num

ber

of P

erso

ns

1,200,000

419,000

Colorado Population by Age, 2000 and 2030

Annual Average Growth, 2000 - 2010

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Total ColoradoPopulation

US Population,55-64

ColoradoPopulation, 55 -

64

Baby Boomers

• Top Five US Counties by Percent of Baby Boom Population*:1. Clear Creek County, CO (38.0%)

2. Monroe County, FL (37.1%)

3. Mercer County, ND (36.6%)

4. Teller County, CO (36.5%)

5. Gilpin County, CO (36.2%)

* Source: US Census as of July 2006

Regional differences

2008 Age Distribution by County

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

0 to

45

to 9

10 to

14

15 to

19

20 to

24

25 to

29

30 to

34

35 to

39

40 to

44

45 to

49

50 to

54

55 to

59

60 to

64

65 to

69

70 to

74

75 to

79

80 to

84

85 to

89

90+

to 9

4

Adams

Baca

Jefferson

Summit

What does this mean?

• Human capital exiting the labor force

• Net migration depends on whether baby boomers stay or leave. If they stay this could be very high.

• Large chunk of the Colorado population demanding services that it hasn’t in the past– Health care, transportation, etc.

Employment and Migration

!

Household changes

• Baby boomers retiring, migration changes households

• Households are consumer units

• Cohorts consume differently across age, income groups

• Households also demand housing units

Household formation

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

HH Change Pop Change

Housing the households

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

HH

,HU

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

% C

han

ge

Ho

usi

ng

Pri

ces

HousePrices HouseHolds HousingUnitsHouse price data from FHFA

Race and Ethnicity

• Big changes across the state over the past two decades

• Driven largely by immigration, higher birth rates

• Colorado foreign born population was 142,400 in 1990; 369,900 by 2000– 4.3% of population in 1990– 8.6% of population in 2000

Race and Ethnicity

• Distribution not uniform across the state

• Fastest increase in foreign born population from 1990-2000 was in the west – Top three: Lake, Summit, Garfield

• Greatest number of foreign born in the Denver area– Top three: Denver, Arapahoe, Adams

Race and Ethnicity

• Age distributions are different for non-white population

• As age decreases the percentage of minorities increases

Race and Ethnicity, 2000 - 2010

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

White, non-hispanic

Hispanic Origin Black, non-hispanic

Asian/PI, non-hispanic

Am. Indian, non-hispanic

200-2005 2005-2010

Race and Ethnicity, 2010 - 2030

Race and Ethnicity - considerations

• Foreign born– Language and service provision – schools,

ballots, instructional material, Census workers

– Poverty, especially with undocumented residents

• Health issues– i.e. Greater prevalence of diabetes in

Hispanic population

Thank you!

http://dola.colorado.gov/demog