Stephen Leonard, Senior Policy Analyst – UNFCCCCenter for International

Forestry Research

20 November 2014

THE UNFCCC POLICY LANDSCAPE PRE LIMA

SETTING THE STAGE

Big Picture

• Recent emissions reductions announcements

− EU: 40% on 1990 levels by 2030

− China: Emissions peak by 2030 / 20% zero emissions energy by 2030

− USA: 26 – 28% on 2005 levels by 2025

• Financial Pledges being made

‒ Current pledges to GCF around US$9b – target this yearof US$10 – 15b

• Climate in G20 Communique despite Australian block

• However, very few Kyoto Amendment ratifications

SETTING THE STAGE – FORESTS

New Climate Agreement – Possible inclusions:

• REDD+ Mechanism

• REDD+ Window in the GCF

SBSTA

• Finalizing work on Safeguards in Lima

• Alternative Policy Approaches – adaptation links

Finance

• GCF Frameworks completed

• REDD+ Results Framework agreed in Barbados

• Standing Committee on Finance

• SBs

– SBSTA – Metrics / REDD+ Safeguards / REDD+ Alternative Policy Approaches / Clean Development Mechanism – land use

– SBI - Adaptation Plans

• New Climate Agreement – Elements & INDCs

• Finance - Green Climate Fund / Standing Committee on Finance

THIS PRESENTATION…..

ACRONYMSADP: Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform

AR5: Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

BRs: Biennial Reports

BURs: Biennial Update Reports

CDM: Clean Development Mechanism

CfRN: Coalition for Rainforest Nations

COP: Conference of Parties

GCF: Green Climate Fund

GEF: Global Environment Facility

INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

JMA: Joint Mitigation Adaptation

KP: Kyoto Protocol

LUCFA: Land Use Change and Forest Activities

LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

MRV: Measuring Reporting and Verification

Nat Comms: National Communications

NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

NAPs: National Adaptation Plans

NAPAs: National Adaptation Programmes of Action

SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice

SBI: Subsidiary Body on Implementation

SCF: Standing Committee on Finance

SIS: Safeguards Information Systems

TEM: Technical Expert Meeting

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WS: Work Stream

SUBSIDIARY BODIES

SBSTA 41 – REDD+ SAFEGUARDS INFORMATION SYSTEMS

• The ‘need’ for further guidance on Safeguards Information Systems

– Unresolved issue for the past 2+ years

• Submissions received / compiled – CIFOR Analyses

– majority of submissions favor further guidance.

– trade-offs between further guidance and the promotion of country-driven approaches and national sovereignty.

– need to minimize the burden for creation of and reporting on SIS.

– civil society organizations highlighted issues around equity and participation of local people in the process.

– Useful guidance on how to develop a country-driven approach.

SBSTA 41 – ALTERNATIVE POLICY APPROACHES TO REDD+

• Warsaw mandate to agree at SBSTA 40 – no agreement so put back to Lima

• Premised on Bolivian Proposal – JMA and Non Markets – alternative to REDD carbon markets approach – not replacement

– Expert Meeting / Workshop held in Bonn @ SBSTA 40

– See: https://unfccc.int/files/methods/redd/application/pdf/bolivian_proposal_jma_05.06.2014.pdf

• Debate over whether item remains under REDD or new Agenda item

– Brazil pushing to have the item considered outside the REDD Bali Agenda item

– Bolivia want it to remain under REDD

SBSTA 41 – CDM & LULUCF

• CDM – under the Kyoto Protocol

• SBSTA 40 considered inputs from technical paper

• Ongoing consideration in Lima of additional LULUCF areas under the CDM:

– Revegetation including agroforestry and silvopastoral;

– Cropland management and grazing management

• Wetland drainage and rewettingCDM – under the Kyoto Protocol

• SBSTA 40 considered inputs from technical paper

• Ongoing consideration in Lima of additional LULUCF areas under the CDM:

– Revegetation including agroforestry and silvopastoral;

– Cropland management and grazing management

– Wetland drainage and rewetting

SBSTA 41 - METRICS

• Provide the basis for comparing impacts in multiple GHG reduction efforts

• Ongoing debate:

‒ KP =Global Warming Potential – others developed since 1997

‒ Whether to expand to other metrics / timescales

8 different metrics in AR5 / timescales: 20, 50 and 100 years

• Was considered in Bonn – no agreement – Lima

• Brazil – need an agreement - critical input to the ADP

‒ Discussion concerning agreement on a ‘common metric’ or ‘basket of metrics’ for the new agreement

SBI 41 – NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS

• Much emphasis on the lack of finance:

– new climate agreement links:

• Finance including via GCF

• INDCs

• Norway calling for adaptation and forests to be discussed in NAPs context

– Expect more focus on forests and adaptation (SCF / GCF)

• Countries lacking understanding of technical guidance and seeking greater clarity

THE DURBAN PLATFORM

THE DURBAN PLATFORM (ADP)

• Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform

• WS 1 - process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force applicable to all Parties by 2015 for implementation by 2020

• WS 2 - Pre 2020 - to explore options to close the ambition gap ensuring highest possible mitigation efforts by Parties

PRE 2020 MITIGATION

• TEMs – part of the formal process:

– Land Use / Non CO2 Emissions (agriculture)

• Purpose:

– To enhance pre 2020 mitigation

– Provide guidance to UNFCCC Institutions (eg: GCF)

• Projects / programmes to finance

• Priority areas

– Likely to be ongoing to up 2020

• Possible to be broadened to include adaptation

PRE 2020 MITIGATION

• TEMS: Outputs:

– Land Use

• REDD+ remains high on the agenda

• high mitigation & Adaptation potential from forest and agricultural sectors;

• a scaling up of finance, technology and capacity building is required;

• sectoral policies are required;

• participatory multi-stakeholder dialogues should commence at early stages;

See: http://unfccc.int/bodies/awg/items/8171.php

PRE 2020 MITIGATION

• Non CO2 Emissions – Agriculture

– up to 80% of emissions from the agriculture sector could be reduced by 2030.

• Potential policies and actions identified include

– soil conservation;

– soil productivity and erosion control;

– nitrogen use efficiency;

– rice management;

– Research; and

– landscape approach

See: http://unfccc.int/bodies/awg/items/8420.php

NEW AGREEMENT - ADAPTATION

• Has had a clear increase in profile

• Major emphasis on scaling up finance

• Link in with current processes – NAPs, NAPAs and Adaption Fund

• Focus on a global adaptation goal – metrics

– Vulnerability, resource allocation, economics, research, finance

– Proposed process to be launched

NEW AGREEMENT - MITIGATION

• Focus on a global goal - options:

– temperature goal that reflects current science;

– emissions reduction goal – 40 – 70% below 2010 levels by 2050;

– maximum concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere – 350ppm;

– Carbon budget

• Divide as to whether developing countries should have economy wide emissions reduction targets

NEW AGREEMENT – REDD+

• Current Non Paper (will form basis of draft text) – see: http://unfccc.int/meetings/lima_dec_2014/session/8532.php

• Institutions: REDD+ Mechanism

– Possible Institution to be developed by SBSTA

– NB: CfRN proposal - informal meetings

• Finance: REDD+ Window in the GCF

– Would be specific institutional arrangements for REDD+

NEW AGREEMENT – INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS

• CoP 20 – Agreement on scope – draft text out now

• Commitments / Contributions – to what extent will they be legally binding in a new agreement?

• Parties to communicate their INDCs to the UNFCCC by the first quarter of 2015

• Countries beginning to express that REDD+ likely to be relied on as a contribution

– Outstanding question as to what information would be included on REDD+ eg: safeguards information systems summary?

• Disagreement remains as to whether to do an ex ante assessment in 2015 – will be an issue in Lima

• Likely that INDCS will be broad – Mitigation, Adaptation, Technology, capacity building and finance

– Reflected in draft text for Lima decision

– Possible links with reporting processes – Biennial Report and Biennial Update Reports and International Assessment and Review and International Consultation and Analyses

• Other links – NAPs / NAPAs / NAMAs

NEW AGREEMENT – CYCLES, RULES, MODALITIES

• MRV cycles already in place – BRs / BURs / Nat Comms etc….

– How does this link to INDCs process where MRV is carbon?

• Review cycle: adequacy of INDCs

• Commitment cycle: emissions reductions / finance etc

– Cannot be frozen in time

• 5 years or 10 years

– 5 year cycles with 10 year indicative targets

– 10 year cycles with 5 year mid term review

– In line with science - IPCC

• Accounting

– Most likely area of convergence between LULUCF & REDD+ - common accounting rules

• Suggested that there be key Principles across the land sector

– Technical work to be done 2015 – 2020

– Land-use change and forest activities (NEW terminology)

• Principles – rights / landscapes

– What hooks should these principles contain?

ADP – EXPECTATIONS FOR LIMA

• Decision on Pre 2020 mitigation / TEMs

• Decision on INDCs

– Scope of information – may elaborate on REDD inclusion

– Whether there will be an ex ante assessment in 2015

• Elements for a draft negotiating text

– BUT – intercessional in February 2015 - fall back!!!

– More clarity on Land-Use Change and Forest Activities (LUCFA)

FINANCE

STANDING COMMITTEE ON FINANCE

• Warsaw Mandate:

– Coordination and cohesion of finance and forests

– Beyond REDD+

• Eighth Meeting – October in Bonn

– Commenced preparations for 2015 Forum

– Released Background paper

• 2015 Forum on Finance and Forests

– May 2015

– Will inform Financial Mechanisms – GCF, GEF, Adaptation Fund

– Report to COP 21 (Paris)

GREEN CLIMATE FUND

• Operating entity of the Financial Mechanism

• Eighth Board Meeting in October – 36 agenda items

• Governance Frameworks now in place

• Accreditation Procedure now agreed - Applications have been release

– Fast track procedures in place

• Resource mobilization process in place

– Next meeting 20 November (today)

• REDD+ Results Based Payments Framework – see: http://www.gcfund.org/fileadmin/00_customer/documents/MOB201410-8th/GCF_B.08_08_Rev.01_Initial_Logic_Model_fin_20141022.pdf

• Limited to Carbon

– definition of results as ‘only’ ex post payments?

• Recalls Warsaw language on requirements (eg: SIS)

– No assessments process in place for safeguards compliance

• Lacking – more work to be done

– recognition / incentives for non carbon benefits

– clear framework in place for Phase 1 & 2 finance

SYNERGIES & LANDSCAPES

SYNERGIES & LANDSCAPES

• There was much activity Pre SB 40 / ADP 2.5

• Agriculture Road Map goes through to mid 2016 – New Agreement will be reached in 2015

– Agriculture discussion moving towards mitigation

• Mitigation and Adaptation synergies are central to a landscape approach – under developed area

– High potential for development going forward

– Linked with non markets / alternative policy approaches

• REDD+ discussion moving towards adaptation

• Common accounting rules – high level principles

MITIGATION & ADAPTATION SYNERGIES

• Identified as important for the land sector in AR5

• ADP - current non paper includes several linkages

• GCF – Additional Adaptation Results Areas not agreed

• SCF – Alternative Policy Approaches

• SBSTA - Alternative Policy Approaches – JMA

– Some Parties have called for international technical guidance and modalities on the issue – Bolivia, Singapore, China, PNG

ACRONYMSADP: Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform

AR5: Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

BRs: Biennial Reports

BURs: Biennial Update Reports

CDM: Clean Development Mechanism

CfRN: Coalition for Rainforest Nations

COP: Conference of Parties

GCF: Green Climate Fund

GEF: Global Environment Facility

INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

JMA: Joint Mitigation Adaptation

KP: Kyoto Protocol

LUCFA: Land Use Change and Forest Activities

LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

MRV: Measuring Reporting and Verification

Nat Comms: National Communications

NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

NAPs: National Adaptation Plans

NAPAs: National Adaptation Programmes of Action

SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice

SBI: Subsidiary Body on Implementation

SCF: Standing Committee on Finance

SIS: Safeguards Information Systems

TEM: Technical Expert Meeting

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WS: Work Stream

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