The Tipping Point Election
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The Tipping Point Election
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The Tipping Point Election. The 2012 Map. Obama’s Margin By State. The Path To 270. 272 electoral votes. Direction Of The Country. 55%. 43%. Obama And The Economy. Is the economy recovering?. NBC News/Wall Street Journal. Total Ad Spending By Group. Ad Spending By State. NH $48M. WI - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of The Tipping Point Election
The Tipping Point Election
The 2012 Map
Obama’s Margin By State
DC NY MA DE ME OR MN NH CO FL IN MS TX ND AL AR OK
Margin
The Path To 270
WI IA NH NV PA CO VA OH FL NC GA
76 6 6
54
32
1
-3
-8
272 electoral votes
Direction Of The Country
1/12/2
008
5/17/2
008
9/20/2
008
1/24/2
009
5/30/2
009
10/3/
2009
2/6/20
10
6/12/2
010
10/16
/2010
2/19/2
011
6/25/2
011
10/29
/2011
3/3/20
12
7/7/20
120
20
40
60
80
100
Right DirectionWrong Track
43%
55%
Obama And The Economy
Octobe
r
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Janu
aryMarc
hApri
lMay
June Ju
ly
Augus
t
Septem
ber
Octobe
r
39 40 39
45 45 4543 42
44 4447 47
21
25
30
3740
38
3335
27
36
42
Obama handling the economy
Will economy get better?
Yes No
52
45
Is the economy recovering?
NBC News/Wall Street Journal
Total Ad Spending By Group
$379.8
$72.2 $218.5
$386.7
ObamaDem GroupsRomneyRepub Groups
In Millions of Dollars
Total Dem spending: $452.0 million Total Repub spending: $605.2 million
Ad Spending By State
CO $85M OH
$214M
FL $201M
VA$165M
NV$65M
WI$55M
IA$77M
NH$48M
The Electorate
72%
13%
10%
3%
Race & Ethnicity
WhiteBlackHispanicAsian
19%
27%38%
16%
Age
18-2930-4445-6465+
The Electorate
47%
53%
Gender
WomenMen
34%
38%5%
8%
5%
6% 5%
Race & Gender
White Men White Women
Black Men Black Women
Latino Men Latino Women
Others
The Obama Coalition
55%
45%
Women
ObamaRom-ney 60
%
37%
18-29
ObamaRomney
80%
19%
Non-Whites
Obama
Romney
Vote By Race
White African America Latino Asian
39%
93%
71%73%
59%
6%
27% 26%
Coalition Of The Ascendant
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
87% 83% 81% 77% 74% 72%
WhitesBlacksHispanicAsian
11% 16% 19% 21% 24% 26%
The Growing Dem Base
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
21%
17% 17% 17%18%
19%
8%10% 10%
11%13% 13%
2%
5%7%
8%9%
10%
18-29African AmericanHispanic
Voting Habits By Food Chain
Repubs Eat At:• Cracker Barrel• Chick-fil-A• Arby’s• Macaroni Grill
Dems Eat At:• Popeyes• Whole Foods• White Castle
Voting Habits By Beer Preference
Repubs drink:• Michelob Ultra• Leinenkugel• Coors Light• Miller Light
Dems drink:• Microbrews• Heineken• Sierra Nevada• Corona
Voting Habits By Favorite Sport
Dems Watch:• NBA/WNBA• Tennis• Soccer• WWE?
Repubs Watch:• PGA/LPGA• College
football• NASCAR
The Senate
112th Congress: 51D, 47R, 2I 113th Congress: 53D, 45R, 2I
The House
112th Congress: 240R, 190D, 5 vacancies 113th Congress: 234R, 194D, 7 uncalled
The Fiscal Cliff
Budget sequester
The debt ceiling
Bush tax cuts
Alternative minimum tax
What’s at stake:
How Do We Back Away?
The Punt: Let the 113th clean up the mess
The Hail Mary: A grand bargain in a lame duck
The End-Around: Dems gamble on taxes?
